10 February 2016
Chief Executive Officer
Steve Binnie
Sappi Limited
Q1 FY16 financial results
2
Forward-looking statementsCertain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions of or indicate future earnings, savings, synergies, events, trends, plans or objectives. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “plan”, “assume”, “positioned”, “will”, “may”, “should”, “risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, and may be used to identify forward-looking statements. You should not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results, performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to: the highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity,
production, input costs including raw material, energy and employee costs, and pricing); the impact on our business of a global economic downturn; unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages); changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations; adverse changes in the markets for our products; the emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media; consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed; adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future
economic or social problems; the impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or
other problems experienced in connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructuring and other strategic initiatives and achieving expected savings and synergies; and
currency fluctuations.We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.
Forward-looking statements and Regulation G
Regulation G disclosureCertain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results fromperiod to period. Reconciliation's of certain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for therelevant period. These booklets are located in the ‘Investors | Financial information’ section of www.sappi.com.
Summary
3
4
Highlights
Profit for the period US$75m (Q1 FY15 US$24m)
EPS ex-special items 13 US cents (Q1 FY15 5 US cents)
EBITDA ex-special items US$175m (Q1 FY15 US$145m)
Net debt US$1,734m, down US$306m year-on-year
Q1 FY16
5
EBITDA and operating profit14
7
171
140
200
145
170
109
201
175
60
95
67
124
74
104
43
136
112
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16
US
$ m
illio
n
EBITDA Operating profit ex-items
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Excluding special items*
6
EBITDA and operating profit
147
145
175
60
74
112
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Q1 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q1 FY16
US
$ m
illio
n
EBITDAOperating profit ex-items
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Excluding special items*
Q1 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q1 FY16
Net Debt/ LTM EBITDA 4.6 3.1 2.6
Interest Cover 3.0 3.8 5.1
EBITDA % 9.8 10.5 13.6
ROCE % 7.0 9.7 16.2
Key ratios: (%)
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
145 6 58 10 (7) (7) (30) 175
Q1 FY15 EBITDA Sales volume Price & mix Variable &delivery costs
Fixed costs Other Exchange rate Q1 FY16 EBITDA
7
EBITDA Bridge*
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
All variances were calculated excluding Sappi Forests EBITDA shown above excludes special items 'Exchange rate' reflects the impact of changes in the average rates of translation of foreign currency results
Q1 FY15 to Q1 FY16
Sales revenue
8
Product contribution split - LTM
Specialised cellulose
44%
Paper56%
EBITDA excluding special items*
Specialised cellulose
60%
Paper40%
Operating profit excluding special items
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.
9
Net debt/EBITDA development15
9
126
88
155
147
171
140
200
145
170
109
201
175
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16
US
$ m
illio
n
EBITDA* Net debt/LTM EBITDA**
* EBITDA shown is excluding special items** The covenant net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above
383
64
511
494
221
49
33
75
339
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2032
US
$ m
illio
n
Cash Short-term SPH term debt SSA RCF Securitisation
10
Maturity profileFiscal years
Includes US$400m bond
US$350m bondUS$221m bond
EUR450m bond
350
11
Capex development
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Estimate
US
$ m
illio
n
Maintenance Efficiency
12
Divisional overviews
13
Global paper market trends Supply and demand Currency shift (leaves/makes) US exports uncompetitive Coated paper capacity shuts/conversions continue in Europe and NA Mechanical paper under pressure
Selling prices and input costs CWF and CM sales prices moving up in Europe Fuel oil, energy and oil-based chemical prices have decreased Paper pulp prices declining
Strategy Implement price increases when/where market allows Reducing fixed and variable costs Reduce or convert capacity in line with demand declines
Price increases implemented, demand stabilised, volumes higher on Husum transfer.
Speciality paper volumes improved late in the quarter and were substantially higher than
last year.
Both fixed and variable costs were flat year-on-year. Higher pulp prices were offset by
lower chemical and energy costs
575
600
625
650
675
700
725
750
CWF-S 100g CWF-R 100gLWC-OSR 60g
14
Sappi Europe
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
US
$ m
illio
n
EBITDA* EBITDA Margin*
* EBITDA and EBITDA margin shown excluding special items. Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.** Source: RISI
Select Paper Prices: Germany €/ton**
15
Sappi North America
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
US
$ m
illio
n
EBITDA* EBITDA Margin*
* EBITDA and EBITDA margin shown excluding special items. Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.** Source: AF&PA
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15
TOTAL CWF Imports TOTAL CWF Exports
Better results year-on-year due to higher paper volumes and lower variable costs.
Paper prices were flat sequentially, but down 3% from last year.
DWP prices were higher versus prior quarter and comparative quarter.
Release business continues to experience weak demand from China. Elsewhere business
is stabilising. Average prices realized were higher due to successful price increases
Tons ‘000
16
Global specialised cellulose market trends
Supply and demand Outlook for BEK will impact swing capacity Underlying demand trends for commodity grades still positive
Selling prices and input costs Spot prices for commodity grade DWP declining in line with textile
prices Input costs declining for producers with non-US$ cost base Chinese currency devaluation impacting DWP selling prices
Strategy Manage capacity Continue working with customers supporting common growth Investigate adjacent end-uses
17
Sappi Southern Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
US
$ m
illio
n
EBITDA* EBITDA Margin*
* EBITDA and EBITDA margin shown excluding special items. Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.** Source: CCF
Better margins year-on-year on higher prices and impact of weaker Rand.
DWP volumes were lower than last year due to drought conditions impacting Saiccor ($6m
impact on EBITDA) and a delayed shipping of a break bulk vessel.
Demand for containerboard continues to be robust.
Sales of Cape Kraft and Enstra finalised.
Spot price - Staple Grade DWP (US$/ton)**
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec
-15
Jan-
16
18
Strategic focus
We work to lower fixed and variable costs, increase cost efficiencies and invest for cost advantages Saiccor and Tugela turbines – FY2016/17 Ngodwana boiler upgrade for future
debottlecking – Q2 FY2016 Group procurement initiatives Ongoing continuous improvement across
all mills Cloquet Mill’s kraft campaigns
19
Focus areasAchieve cost advantages
Recognising the decreasing demand for graphic paper, we manage our capacity to strengthen our leadership position in these markets, realising their strategic importance to the group and maximising their significant cash flow generation Cessation of coated paper production in
South Africa in 2015 Husum volumes transferred to our assets in
H2 2015 Growth in niche speciality grades on our
CWF machines in US and EU ongoing
20
Focus areasRationalise and optimise declining businesses
We will make smaller investments in existing areas with strong potential growth, including pulp, speciality grades and packaging papers Additional packaging at Ngodwana and
Tugela Nano-cellulose pilot plant in the Netherlands Electricity opportunities in South Africa Debottlenecking of Saiccor and Ngodwana
DWP Securing additional HW timber supply in SA
21
Focus areasGrow through moderate investments
Sale of both Enstra and Cape Kraft Mills completed
Refinancing and debt reduction will lead to lower finance cost
22
Focus areasGenerate cash to strengthen the balance sheet
Over the next two years we will continue our focus on having a cleaner, stronger balance sheet so that we can then accelerate our growth in adjacent businesses Speciality packaging New business – lignins, sugars Longer term DWP capacity expansion
23
Focus areasAccelerate growth in adjacent businesses from a strong base
Outlook
24
25
Outlook
Specialised Cellulose business is benefiting from higher average USD prices
and a weaker ZAR/US Dollar exchange rate. Spot prices have been under
pressure, but demand remains strong.
In North America variable costs are down and market share is growing
Paper price increases in Europe, costs coming down as a result of strategic
projects.
Strong demand for virgin packaging and weaker ZAR/US Dollar creating
positive outlook for South African paper business.
26
Outlook (cont’d)
We expect Q2 EBITDA to be in-line with the Q1, slightly ahead year-on-year
despite US$12m of additional maintenance impact.
Based on current market conditions, and assuming current exchange rates, we
expect EBITDA ex-items in FY16 to be higher than FY15.
We expect strong growth in our EPS ex-items.
Net debt expected to reduce further over the course of the year toward our
targeted ceiling of two times net debt to EBITDA.
Thank you –
27
Supplementary information
28
29
Western Europe shipments including export.Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008
Western Europe
Coated paper deliveries and prices
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Q1
08 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
09 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
10 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
11 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
12 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
13 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
14 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
15 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008
= 1
CWF MCR CWF 100gsm sheets prices LWC 60gsm offset reels prices
30
Sappi Europe
Q1 FY16 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY15Tons sold (‘000) 836 847 775Sales (EURm) 601 609 547
Price/Ton (EUR) 719 719 706Cost/Ton* (EUR) 684 692 690
Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 29 23 12
* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold.** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
31
* US industry shipments and total US consumptionSource: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08
United States
Coated paper prices and shipments
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Q1
FY
08 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
FY
09 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
FY
10 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
FY
11 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
FY
12 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
FY
13 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
FY
14 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
FY
15 Q2
Q3
Q4
Domestic CFS shipments Total US CFS consumption CFS #3 60lb Rolls prices
Q1
FY08
= 1
32
Sappi North America
Q1 FY16 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY15Tons sold (‘000) 330 357 333Sales (US$m) 343 369 353
Price/Ton (US$) 1,039 1,034 1,060Cost/Ton* (US$) 1,000 947 1,072
Operating profit excluding special items** (US$m) 13 31 (4)
* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold.** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
33
* Source: Average weekly FOEX delivered European prices
Pulp prices*
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
US
$/to
n
NBSK Europe (USD) BHKP Europe (USD)
34
Textile Fibre Prices
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2 400
2 800
3 200
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec
-15
Jan-
16
VSF 1.2D VSF 1.5D PSF 1.4D3 Cotton 328 Cotton "A" IndexUS$/t
35
Sappi Southern Africa
Q1 FY16 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY15Tons sold (‘000) 386 482 426Sales (ZARm) 3,794 4,375 3,644
Price/Ton (ZAR) 9,829 9,077 8,554Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 7,370 6,905 6,897
Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 949 1,047 706
* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold.** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Excluding Sappi Forests
36
Cash flowUS$m Q1 FY16 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY15Cash generated from operations 171 181 137Movement in working capital (100) 86 (136)
Net finance costs paid (36) (24) (52)
Taxation paid (18) - (3)
Cash generated from operating activities 17 243 (54)Cash utilised in investing activities 2 (84) (67)Capital expenditure (40) (85) (68)
Cash flows on disposal of assets and businesses 41 1 -
Other movements 1 - 1
Net cash (utilised) generated 19 159 (121)
37
EBITDA and operating profit
US$m Q1 FY16 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY15
EBITDA excluding special items* 175 201 145Depreciation and amortisation (63) (65) (71)
Operating profit excluding special items* 112 136 74
Special items* - gains (losses) 11 (1) (5)Plantation price fair value adjustment 2 22 1
Net restructuring provisions (3) (2) (1)
Profit on disposal of asset held for sale 15 - -
Employee benefit liability settlement - (1) -
BEE charge - (1) -
Fire, flood, storm and other events (3) (19) (5)
Segment operating profit 123 135 69
* Refer to page 18 in our Q1 FY16 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Excluding special items reconciliation to reported operating profit
38
Thank you