61
Q2 2016 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Q2 2016INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Investments04
Refining
Industry02
Key
Financials05
Company
Overview03
Refining Industry
Brent Crude Oil Prices
108,0 115,3106,1
101,2
94,6
84,3
71,7
65,760,4
55,0
55,0
45,2
62,0
66,7
26,0 28,7
50,648,3
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1.J
ul.1
3
1.A
ug.
13
1.S
ep
.13
1.O
ct.1
3
1.N
ov.
13
1.D
ec.1
3
1.J
an.1
4
1.F
eb
.14
1.M
ar.1
4
1.A
pr.
14
1.M
ay.1
4
1.J
un
.14
1.J
ul.1
4
1.A
ug.
14
1.S
ep
.14
1.O
ct.1
4
1.N
ov.
14
1.D
ec.1
4
1.J
an.1
5
1.F
eb
.15
1.M
ar.1
5
1.A
pr.
15
1.M
ay.1
5
1.J
un
.15
1.J
ul.1
5
1.A
ug.
15
1.S
ep
.15
1.O
ct.1
5
1.N
ov.
15
1.D
ec.1
5
1.J
an.1
6
1.F
eb
.16
1.M
ar.1
6
1.A
pr.
16
1.M
ay.1
6
1.J
un
.16
1.J
ul.1
6
1.A
ug.
16
$/Barrel
CONS
Already existing excess crude
supply
Cooling of Chinese economy
High production from the OPEC
and non-OPEC producers
Entry of Iranian production
Increase in the prices
encouraged swing producers
Potential decrease of Crude
consumption with upcoming
maintenance season
PROS
Disruptions in Venezuella, Libya & Nigeria
Decreased shale production
(US Rig Counts)
High consumption due to the lower price
environment.
Upcoming increase in farming
consumption and La Nina
Saudi declaration for intiation of
discussions with non-OPEC producers
4
Refinery Capacity Change
810 640
160 195 52-255
-543 -486
334
150
340 13540
-145
-109 -266
160
250
181
84180
-240
65
-421
530
526
0 302
-5
-775
-546
520
400
120
390
-140
305
-352
270
510
0
198
-443
63
-189
200
880
0
309
-100
20
-218
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan NorthAmerica
Europe
Tho
usa
nd
Bar
rels
/Day
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Tüpraş, Reuters, Reports
1.6781.790
1.041 1.110
799885
1.000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
5
Refinery Value
Value Added•Ability to upgrade
•Correlated to complexity
Cost Base•Energy Efficiency•Raw Material costs•Scale•Automation
Local Market Dynamics•Growth trends•Supply / Demand balance
Market Position•Proportion of products sold domestically•Local Competition•Infrastructure
6
Product Crack $/bbl
5,00
7,00
9,00
11,00
13,00
15,00
17,00
19,00
21,00
23,00
Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec
Jet Fuel
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
5,00
7,00
9,00
11,00
13,00
15,00
17,00
19,00
Oca Şub Mar Nis May Haz Tem Ağu Eyl Eki Kas Ara
Diesel
2014 2015 2016 T
7Note: 2009- August 2016 Platts Data, 2016 (September-December) estimation
Product Crack $/bbl
-60,00
-50,00
-40,00
-30,00
-20,00
-10,00
0,00
10,00LPG
2009 2010 2011 2012
-20,00
-15,00
-10,00
-5,00
0,00
5,00
Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec
Naphta
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 F
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec
Gasoline
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
Note: 2009- August 2016 Platts Data, 2016 (September-December) estimation8
Quarterly Product Crack Margins, $/bbl
9,5
14,116,5
6,8
13,612,1 9,7
4,5
8,0
13,0
15,1
10,1
13,0
19,4 18,9
13,815,2 14,5
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gasoline
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
16,7
18,0 20,918,9
17,0
15,8 16,416,4
15,313,6
16,1 16,315,7 15,2 14,6
10,7
7,99,2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Diesel
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
13,415,7
18,3 17,016,013,0
13,214,7
12,611,2
15,015,8
14,4
11,3 10,79,5
7,3 7,8
02468
101214161820
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jet Fuel
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-14,4-11,8 -14,3
-20,2-18,8 -13,9 -18,9
-20,4-20,1-20,9
-15,7
-15,0
-11,6-12,1
-13,2
-15,7-13,2
-15,1
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Fuel Oil2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
9
Crude Differentials $/Barrel
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009-2012 Min/Max 2012 2014 2011 2013 2015 2016
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
Differentials Trends
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC
Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel
10
Med Complex Refining Margins
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gro
ss M
argi
n $
/bb
l
Max-Min 2004-2009 Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11
Turkish Sector Outlook
Primary driver of demand is
growing vehicle parc
Auto sales continue to massively
outstrip removals
Very high gasoline tax has led to LPG
& Diesel substitution
Gasoline car sales improving35,8 41,2 50,6 58,3 64,5 76,1 85,4 97,543,6 44,3
52,259,4
65,473,4
80,383,9
79,4 85,5102,8
117,6130,0
149,5165,7
181,4
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Air Passengers - Mill ion
Domestic International
4,6 5,4 6,1 6,8 7,1 7,5 8,1 8,6 9,3 9,9 10,6 10,84,1
4,86,1
7,0 7,2 7,6 8,0 8,4 8,7 9,09,4 9,5
8,710,2
12,213,8 14,3 15,1
16,117,0 17,9 18,8
20,0 20,4
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ion
Veh
icle
s
Vehicle Parc
Passenger Car Other
Jet Fuel demand growing strongly Highly competitive liberalised market
Big infrastructure investments
Istanbul has become a hub for Turkish Airlines
Fuel Oil demand is declining Natural gas substitution
Switching is dependent on price
Long Term Asphalt Demand Growth Infrastructure investments
*By the end of April12
5 Months 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
7,69 8,44
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
2015 2016
Diesel
0,52 0,57
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
2015 2016
Jet Fuel*
0,78 0,84
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
2015 2016
Gasoline
0,29 0,30
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
2015 2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA
*bunker excluded.
+7.1%
+9.8% +9.9%
+4.1%
13
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)
-3,0
2,1
-10,0
1,5
-3,0
2,5
-10,8
1,6
-3,1
2,4
-12,0
1,0
-3,1
2,5
-12,7
1,8
-3,0
3,0
-12,3
1,6
-14,0-13,0-12,0-11,0-10,0
-9,0-8,0-7,0-6,0-5,0-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,01,02,03,04,0
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Million Ton
Export
Import
14
Company Overview
Tüpraş Refining Assets
İzmir
İzmit
Ankara
İstanbul
Kırıkkale
Batman
Kirkuk
Baku
MARMARA
Kırıkkale
5.0 MT Capacity
NC: 6.32
Storage Capacity :
1.4 Mn m3
Batman
1.1 MT Capacity
NC: 1.83
Storage Capacity :
0.3 Mn m3
İzmit
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 14.5
Storage Capacity :
3.0 Mn M3
İzmir
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.66
Storage Capacity :
2.5 Mn M3
Lube Oil Production 400
thousand ton
Black Sea
Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons – 100% of Turkey’s refining Capacity
Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 9.5
16
OPET Tüpraş Share 40.0 %
1.457 Stations
1.024 Opet Brand
433 Sunpet Brand
1.1 Million M3 Storage
•Major Terminals in Marmara, Agean, Black Sea & Mediteranean
International Trading
•London
Jet Fuel Sales
•Turkish Airlines JV
Lubricants
•Fuchs JV
A Sector Leader
•2nd Biggest Player
•# 1 Brand
17
DİTAŞ – Marine Transportation – Tüpraş Share %79.98
19,314,8
6,4 4,8 6,6
2,6
3,1
3,13,5
5,2
18,0
9,6
9,68,4
11,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
To
ns
Crude Products
Million $ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Sales 146,4 159,0 103,7 101,7 113,6
Op. Profit 17,9 22,8 25,2 27,3 36,8
• Crude• 2001
• 164,86 K DWT
Cumhuriyet
• Products • 2008
• 10,98 K DWT
Sevgi
• Products • 2009
• 10,98 K DWT
Gönül
Products
2011
6 K DWT
Leyla
Products201255 K DWT
Suna
• Bitumen
• 2x20 K DWT
• Esra 2014
• Aylin 2015
Esra & Aylin
Financials
19 Tugboats
18
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
IRA N RUSS İA S .A RA BİA TURKEY IRA Q KA Z A KSTA N ITA LY L İBYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API
63%
30%7%
Crude Type - 2015
Heavy / SourMedium Heavy / SourLight & Sweet
19
Margin Environment
Tüpraş Refining Margins ($/bbl)Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers’ refining
margin due to:
► Refined products deficit characteristic to the Turkish
market (for diesel, jet fuel, LPG and specialist products
such as lube oil and extract)
► Access to cheaper sources of crude oil
Ability to use heavier and sour crudes
► Proximity to major suppliers
Reduces transport costs
► Implemented cost reduction measures
Energy efficiency programs
► Capacity to produce higher value added range of
refined products
► Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients
► High export capability
Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin
Mediterranean Ural Complex Margin
5,30 5,32 5,54
1,95
2,89
1,17
4,21
1,67 2,01
4,834,77
-10123456789
10
J-0
6
J-0
6
N-0
6
A-0
7
S-0
7
F-0
8
J-0
8
D-0
8
M-0
9
O-0
9
M-1
0
A-1
0
J-1
1
J-1
1
N-1
1
A-1
2
S-1
2
F-1
3
J-1
3
D-1
3
M-1
4
O-1
4
M-1
5
A-1
5
J-1
6
Month Annual
Med Complex
9,6210,55
11,86
2,453,21
6,47
1,67 1,95
4,83
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2013 2014 2015
Annual
20
Gross Refinery Margins, $/bbl
21
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J-9
9A
-99
J-9
9O
-99
J-0
0A
-00
J-0
0O
-00
J-0
1A
-01
J-0
1O
-01
J-0
2A
-02
J-0
2O
-02
J-0
3A
-03
J-0
3O
-03
J-0
4A
-04
J-0
4O
-04
J-0
5A
-05
J-0
5O
-05
J-0
6A
-06
J-0
6O
-06
J-0
7A
-07
J-0
7O
-07
J-0
8A
-08
J-0
8O
-08
J-0
9A
-09
J-0
9O
-09
J-1
0A
-10
J-1
0O
-10
J-1
1A
-11
J-1
1O
-11
J-1
2A
-12
J-1
2O
-12
J-1
3A
-13
J-1
3O
-13
J-1
4A
-14
J-1
4O
-14
J-1
5A
-15
J-1
5O
-15
J-1
6
Mediterranean
Tüpraş
USA WTI
Singapore
21 21
Capacity Utilisation (%)9
1,1
86
,1
60
,4
69
,6 74
,4 78
,7
76
,8
71
,3
98
,1
90
,1 95
,6
8,7
7,55,5
2,92,4
3,6
4,4
4,0
5,2
69,2
77,181,6
79,174,9
102,5
94,1
100,9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015/ 1H
2016/ 1H
Crude Oil Other
Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)
4,554,63 5,41
5,515,60
6,93
7,32 7,42
6,596,75
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015 2016
Production
+6,8%
22
2nd Quarter Product Yields
White Product 71.83%
Production 6.8 mn ton
API:32.21
White Product 78.20%
Production 6.6 mn ton
API:30.83
Gasoline20,6%
Naphtha1,9%
Jet19,0%
Diesel32,4%
Other1,5%
LPG3,8%
Coke2,7%
Fuel Oil5,4%
Bitumen12,6%
Light Distil.22,5%
Mid. Distil.51,4%
Other5,4%
Black Prod.20,7%
2015 2016
Gasoline19,5%
Naphtha1,4%
Jet19,0%
Diesel27,1%
Other2,3%
LPG3,2%
Coke0,6%
Fuel Oil16,9%
Bitumen10,0%
Light Distil.20,9%
Mid. Distil.46,1%
Other5,5%
Black Prod.27,4%
23
Sales By Customer 1Q 2016
Distributors42%
THY Opet10%
Jet 4%
LPG 4%
Petkim0%
Other6%
Export26%
Bitumen6% Military
2%
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors
Total: 6,9 million ton Distributors : 3,2 million tons
OMV POAŞ32%
OPET17%Shell
18%
BP2%
TP4%
TOTAL4%
Other23%
24
Refining Sales
1,8
7,9
2,8 3,0
1,8
8,6
3,32,8
1,8
8,1
3,62,9
1,8
6,7
3,9
1,92,0
9,2
4,8
2,9
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Bitumen
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015
Domestic Sales, Million Tons
16,9
22,2
5,3
6,522,2
28,7
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
2014 2015
ExportDomestic
%+31,9
%+29,5
4,2
8,0
3,0 3,0
4,6
8,8
3,52,8
4,6
8,2
3,72,9
4,3
6,8
3,9
1,9
5,6
9,3
5,1
2,9
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Bitumen
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015
► Sales to distributors in Turkey are
made at prices established by Tüpraş
In accordance with a formula based on
Italian "CIF" prices plus a margin
below a maximum approved by EMRA
Tüpraş's prices are affixed to all
distributors, including Opet, on an
equal basis
► Export sales are generally made to
traders, on FOB basis
Total Sales, Million Tons
Sales Breakdown & Comparison
Million
tons
25
12M Trading Activities
Exports
High CUR = big increases in export
Finished Products
High Sulfur Diesel imports decreased due to
low desulphurisation arbitrage profits.
ULSD imports were higher due to the trading
arbitrage.
Intermediates
Additional HVGO + LCGO imported to increase
Capacity Utilisation of conversion units.
0
882
692
24
532
274
0
637
804
49
588
61
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
Product Imports, Ton*000
2014
2015
2.508
129
2.670
27
3.559
349
2.551
350
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
Gasoline Middle Dist. Fuel Oil Other
Exports, Ton*000
2014
2015
436
733
0
200
400
600
800
HVGO + LCGO ASR F.Oil
Intermediate Imports , Ton*000
12M 2014 12M 2015
26
Investments, million $
397
761
1.006
701
190150
231
213
207
258
153
268
177
628
974
1.213
959
344268
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RUP with Supplementary Projects
Others
28
Other Major ProjectsProject Aims
•To reduce the need for fresh water
What the Project Entails
•A water treatment plant to process municipal & refinery waste water
•Two temporary systems were built to serve until the main system was completed
•Project completed in 2015
Investment
•22 Million USD
29
İzm
it W
aste
Wat
er
Tre
atm
en
t
Project Aims
•Eliminating low energy efficiency in the furnaces
•Enables sustainable full capacity utilization
What the Project Entails
•Configuration Changes
•De-salter & Pre-flash column
•Heat recycling – Heat Exchanger
•Replace column internals
•New pre-flash drum
Expectations
•Investment: 31.9 Million USD
•IRR > 40%
İzm
ir C
rud
e O
il R
eva
mp
ing
Project Aims
•Improving Energy Efficiency at Kırıkkale with a combined heat & power plant
•The other refineries are already equipped
•Expected completion: 2016
What the Project Entails
•A new gas turbine
•New steam turbines
•New boilers
•One existing steam turbine will be utilized
•Total power: 60 MW
Investment
•84 Million USD
•IRR: >30%
Kır
ıkka
le P
ow
er
Pla
nt
29
Profitability Indicators , 2015-2016 6 Month & 2Q-2015-2016
* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB calculation method includes these in operationg
profit
2nd Q(%)
6M(%)
2015 2016 2015 2016
61,92 45,57 -26 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 57,95 39,73 -31,4432,21 30,83 -4,3 Processed Crude API 32,63 30,98 -5,0671,83 78,20 6,4 White Product Yield, (%) 72,70 75,59 2,89
4,88 3,20 -34,4 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 5,43 3,52 -35,27,48 5,21 -30,3 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 6,23 4,03 -35,3
337,95 169,7 -50 Operating Profit, (mn. $) 380,2 262,6 -31
372,9 189,9 -49 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 492,6 258,1 -48
380,6 216,6 -43 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 452,7 355,1 -22313,6 99,5 -68 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 455,9 260,5 -43415,6 236,8 -43 EBITDA *(mn. $) 565,1 350,6 -38348,5 119,7 -66 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 568,2 256,0 -55
31
Financial Highlights (mn $)
134262
95 79150 150 114
256
328
15378
-27
415237
271
468
361315
226
410169
272
106
89
-11
422
830
1.329
715
560
338
1.397
351
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
2010 2011 2012R 2013 2014 2015 2016
67194 161
72231
112 27
145
16575
75
171273
113
230
206309 435
175 26847
174 27147 91
285
490
740817
629 667
938
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-1.9
55
57
8
55
1
1.3
40 1.9
94
1.8
69
1.5
98
1.6
63 2
.45
2
2.5
77
2.7
48
2.3
70
2.2
58
2.3
91
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
0,2
2 0,2
50
,34
0,1
10
,22
0,1
90
,30
0,3
20
,24
0,1
00
,40
0,3
30
,30
0,2
60
,18
0,3
0 0,3
50
,35
0,0
40
,11
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
13 Q
1
20
14 Q
1
20
14 1
H
20
14 9
M
20
14
20
15 Q
1
20
15 Q
2
20
15 9
M
20
15
20
16 Q
1
20
16 1
H
EBITDA Net Income
Net Debt Return on Average Equity
32
Balance Sheet Analysis
1,41
2,16
1,721,69
1,30
1,641,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
1,641,59
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
1,451,33
0,930,71
0,520,51
0,090,20
0,66
1,070,88
0,700,91
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,3 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8
0,81,0 0,5
0,9 0,3 0,3 0,30,4 0,5 0,6 0,6
1,0 1,23,1
3,43,1
3,73,2 3,2 3,3
3,7 3,6 3,6 3,43,9 4,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
2,94
3,463,223,103,28
3,04
2,46
1,741,701,591,361,23
1,69
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
Payables (Billion $)
33
FX Risk Exposure (30 June 2016)
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2,657
RUP Loans: 1,407
Eurobond: 700
Other credits 550
ST Financials 374
• RUP 306
Payables
1.174
Forward & CFH*
2,509
Stock
842
Receivables & otherassets
42
Cash
900
Million $
+74 million $
*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,568 mn $ 34
Future Expectations
Brent Price Estimation
• The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to be 45-55 dollars per barrel band.
Med Complex Margin
• We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.5 – 4.0 dollars per barrel band in 2016.
Tüpraş Net Margin
• Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 4.5 – 5.0 dollars per barrel
Capacity Utilisation
• Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2016 will be around 100 %.
• Production will therefore be approximately 28 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
• Total sales volume will be 30.0 million tons
Investment
• Total investments for 2016 will be about 270 Million dollars
35
Income Statement
Q2 Q2% Diff. Million USD 6 M 2015 6 M 2016 % Diff.
2015 2016
4.024,3 2.914,7 -28 Net Sales 6.853,6 5.016,0 -27
431,2 221,3 -49 Gross Profit 634,3 387,9 -39
-72,0 -78,9 10 Operating Expenses -142,0 -155,8 10
-21,3 27,3 -228 Income/Loss from other operations -112,1 30,6 -127
337,9 169,7 -50 Operating Profit 380,2 262,6 -31
12,9 18,5 43 Income/Loss from equity investment 3,7 23,5 527
350,9 188,2 -46Operating Profit Before Fin.
Income/Loss383,9 286,1 -25
12,2 -16,6 -235 Financial Income 192,9 45,1 -77
-85,5 -34,8 -59 Finance Expenses -311,2 -161,8 -48
277,6 136,8 -51 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 265,7 169,4 -36
272,7 113,5 -58 Net Profit 384,8 140,2 -64
380,6 216,6 -43 EBITDA (mn.$) 452,7 355,1 -22313,6 99,5 -68 EBITDA (mn.$)- CCS 455,9 260,5 -43
36
Tüpraş Balance Sheet
Million USD 30.06.2016 31.12.2015 Difference % Difference
Current Assets 3.598 2.984 615 21
Cash & C. Equivalents 1.590 1.041 549 53
Receivables 915 882 32 4
Derivatives 7 6 0 2
Inventories 892 723 169 23
Pre-paid expenses 50 45 5 11
Other Current Assets 144 285 -141 -49
Long Term Assets 5.829 5.776 53 1
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 274 264 10 4
Fixed Assets 3.984 3.950 34 1
Derivatives 69 86
Pre-paid expenses 79 62 18 29
Deferred Tax 1.071 1.101 -30 -3
Other Long Term Assets 352 314 38 12
Total Assets 9.427 8.760 668 8
Short Term Liabilities 4.035 3.036 998 33
Financial Loans 1.202 644 559 87
Payables 1.689 1.363 327 24
Derivatives 73 14 60 429
Deferred Incomes 2 8 -6 -72
Provisions 37 24 12 51
Other ST Liabilities 1.030 984 46 5
Long Term Liabilities 2.868 2.845 23 1
Financial Loans 2.778 2.768 10 0
Payables & Provisions 70 67 3 4
Derivatives 19 9 10 103
Other LT Liabilities 1 1 0 1
Equity 2.500 2.856 -357 -12
Minority Interests 25 22 3 14
Total Liabilities 9.427 8.760 668 8 37
Dividends (TL)
1,73
3,242,94
4,96
5,83
4,78
0
10,18
2,31 2,502,98
3,93 3,85
1,58
6,50
579626
746
985 964
396
1.628
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tota
l Pay
ou
t (M
illio
n T
L)
Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive38
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is
believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable,
they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying
assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other
person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this
presentation.
The Investor Relations section of our company website has a rich content of updated
information for the interested investors
www.tupras.com.tr
Investor Relations Manager
Deniz Değirmenci
Investor Relations and Reporting DirectorsTel. : 262 316 3269Fax : 262 316 30 10-11Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No .25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeliwww.tupras.com.trE-mail: [email protected]
Supplements
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 2Q
Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was - 575,2 million TL
2nd Quarter
Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl
2016 2015Product Yield %
2016 2015
LPG 293,63 388,50 3,6% -19,42 -27,33
Gasoline 486,65 660,19 20,1% 14,40 19,42
Naptha 379,49 506,55 1,1% -2,73 -4,74
Jet Fuel 419,55 575,55 17,5% 7,80 11,28
Diesel 408,16 574,27 32,5% 9,27 15,23
Diesel 1000 399,00 561,47 0,7% 8,04 13,51
Fuel Oil 1% 213,86 335,09 0,2% -12,58 -10,25
Fuel Oil 3,5% 198,42 323,04 18,8% -14,96 -12,10
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 3,76 7,59
Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 61,9 45,6 94,5%
Margin Differences, $/bbl -3,8
Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 51,94
Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -198,8
Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn TL -575,2
FOB Italy Prices
42
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 1H
Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL
2nd Quarter
Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl
2016 2015Product Yield %
2016 2015
LPG 289,75 386,58 3,6% -13,93 -23,53
Gasoline 441,58 602,31 20,1% 14,68 16,27
Naptha 339,58 470,78 1,1% -1,39 -4,80
Jet Fuel 371,69 556,16 17,5% 7,55 12,79
Diesel 359,51 546,14 32,5% 8,57 15,42
Diesel 1000 349,65 530,40 0,7% 7,25 13,31
Fuel Oil 1% 179,40 313,01 0,2% -12,06 -9,68
Fuel Oil 3,5% 166,24 298,88 18,8% -14,09 -11,85
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 3,92 7,46
Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 39,7 57,9 94,5%
Margin Differences, $/bbl -3,5
Total Raw Materials Charged, mn barrel 102,88
Total Effect of Product Prices, mn $ -364,5
Total Effect of Product Prices, mn TL -1.063,6
FOB Italy Prices
42
Inventory Effect* Analysis
*FX effect Included, hedging excluded
2015 2016
$ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total
1st Quarter -35,1 -35,1 -70,2 -9,0 -13,4 -22,4
Apr 9,1 25,3 34,4 7,2 16,6 23,8
May 16,8 12,0 28,8 26,3 43,3 69,6
Jun 2,2 1,7 3,9 13,4 10,2 23,6
2nd Quarter 28,1 38,9 67,1 46,9 70,1 117,0
6 Months -7,0 3,9 -3,1 37,9 56,7 94,6
44
HIGH DEMAND in 2015 (12 Month 2015 - Turkish Consumption (Million ton))
17,43 20,18
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2014 2015
Diesel
4,104,64
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2014 2015
Jet Fuel*
1,92 2,09
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
2014 2015
Gasoline
0,540,44
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
2014 2015
Fuel Oil
* Tüpraş sales + Distributor’s Imports
+9,1%
+15,8%+13,1%
-18,5%
45
5 Months 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
7,69 8,44
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
2015 2016
Diesel
0,52 0,57
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
2015 2016
Jet Fuel*
0,78 0,84
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
2015 2016
Gasoline
0,29 0,30
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
2015 2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA
*bunker excluded.
+7.1%
+9.8% +9.9%
+4.1%
46
HIGH COMPLEXITY #1(Nelson Complexity of Refinining Companies)
14,5
13,012,6
11,8 11,6 11,511,0
10,49,9 9,8 9,6 9,5 9,4 9,2 9,2 9,0 8,8 8,7
8,48,0
7,3 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,16,8
6,5
5,9 5,8 5,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Tüpraş Before RUP
Tüpraş After RUP
İzmitAfter RUP
47
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 2(Resid Upgrading Units Production – (Thousand Tons))
Raw Materials
Natural Gas 246
Vacuum Resid1,214
Atm. Straight Run Fuel Oil3,036
Total Feed 4,496 Total Production 4,250
(kton)
Products(kton)
48
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 3(Tüpraş Total Production Change After RUP)
4,7
3,6
5,6
1,4
2,9
1,7
0,9
5,5
0,3
0,35
0,7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Gasoline&Naptha
Jet Fuel
Diesel
Others
Fuel Oil
Coke
BitumenBefore RUP After
%35
%25
%19
%-87
Million ton
49
2,7
RUP production + 4 Refineries Capacities increase 9,1 mn tons, instead of 4,2 mn ton
49
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 4(Tüpraş Tax Incentive From RUP)
• Valued at 30% of project cost
• Realised after completion
• Tax rate of 10% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
Large ScaleInvestment Incentive
21.10.2010
• Valued at 50% of project cost
• Partly realised during construction
• Tax rate of 2% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
Strategic Investment Incentives 19.10.2012
• is 3,66 billion TL.
• 344 mn TL of Investment incentive income deducted from Strategic Investment Incentive total
Total incentive
50
HIGH QUALITY(Maximum on-road diesel sulphur limits, January 2014)
51
2014 2015 2020 2025
US& Canada 15 15 15 10
Latin America 630 450 195 40
Europe 20 18 12 10
Middle east 900 470 125 45
Russia & Caspian 90 70 55 40
Africa 2.800 2.000 850 390
Asia& Pasific 245 185 105 45
Source:Stratas Advisors
Tüpraş and Turkey have the most stringentproduction limits on sulphur content
51
HIGH FLEXIBILITY(Tüpraş Refineries Simple Flow Diagram)
Gasoline + Naphtha
%21.9
Jet Fuel +Kerosene
%19.0
Gas Oil%30.5
Vacuum Dist.(8) Bitumen /
Fuel Oil%21.9
Crude Distillation(8)
Lube Oil%0.5
LPG
%3.4Isomerisation
(3)
Hydrocracker (4)
FCC(2)
Kero / DieselHDS (10)
LPG Merox (6)
NaphthaSplitter
(8)
FCC GasolineHDS(2)
Benzene Saturation
(2)
UnifinerReformer
(7)
Lube Oil (1)
Others %1.3
2015Yield
97,000 m3/bbl
43,000 m3/bbl
6,400 m3/bbl
16,900 m3/bbl
37,300 m3/bbl
4,700 m3/bbl
17,400 m3/bbl
400 thousand ton/year
Coker
Bitumen (4)
8,200 m3/day
52
LOCATIONAL ADVANTAGE & HEAVIER CRUDES(Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons))
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
IRA N RUSS İA S .A RA BİA TURKEY IRA Q KA Z A KSTA N ITA LY L İBYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API
63%
30%7%
Crude Type - 2015
Heavy / SourMedium Heavy / SourLight & Sweet
53
54www.Tüpraş.com.tr
Baku
Ceyhan
Black Sea
Marmara
Mersin
Ankara
İstanbul
Batman
Kirkuk
İzmir
İzmit
Kırıkkale
COVERING WHOLE COUNTRY
Operations
İzmit
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 14,5
Storage Capacity: 2.2 Mn M3
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Ship, Railway & Truck
İzmir
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.66
Storage Capacity: 1.9 Mn M3
Only lubricant, base Oil, producer
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Ship, & Truck
Kırıkkale
5.0 MT Capacity
NC: 6.32
Storage Capacity: 1.2 Mn M3
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Railway & Truck
Batman
1.1 MT Capacity
NC: 1.83
Storage Capacity: 0.2 Mn M3
Asphalt - 70% of product yield
o Semi-finished products sent for
further processing
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Railway & Truck
Tüpraş operates the only 4 refineries in Turkey
• 3 Large Refineries produce Euro V Diesel & Gasoline, plus jet fuel, fuel oils, asphalt, LPG,
naphtha and others
54
14
8
15
9
14
1
12
7
13
8
99 13
5
13
3
20
8
50
17
4
17
0
20
7
22
2
21
3
21
5 27
1 31
2
25
0322 330348 350 352
364
406
445458
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Spa. Gre. Ger. Fra. EU19 TR Ita. Eng. Nor.
Gasoline (Krş / Lt) Diesel (Krş / Lt)
16
1
14
5
14
7
14
8
11
0
13
1
14
2
14
7
20
6
45
21
3 27
8
27
8
28
0
28
5
31
1
30
1 31
8
31
1
374
423 425 428 439 442 442465
517
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Spa. Fra. Ger. EU19 TR Eng. Gre. Ita. Nor.
Tax Distr. Margin Pump No Tax
Not: Prices valid on 02 May 2016’. Norvey prices as of 05 May 2016, Türkiye prices updated as of 27 April 2016 the latest.
COMPETITION # 1(European Pump Price Comparison)
55
COMPETITION # 2 (Regional Competition)
Mediterranean Black Sea
17 Refineries
1.6 mn bpd53 Refineries
7.6 mn bpd
56
COMPETITION # 3 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery)
• Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13
percent stake in SOCAR Turkey for
$1.3 billion.
• Goldman Sachs has the right to resell
10 percent of its stakes to Socar, and
the remaining 3 percent to ‘Sermaye
Investments Limited’ owned by SOCAR
within 6 year at the same price.
Credit : 3.3 Billion $
Equity : 2.4 Billion $
Total Investment: 5.7 Billion $
STAR Refinery Production (k ton)
• 3,3 billion dollar credit aggrement. First 4 year grace period total 15-18 year term.
• Project finance is supplied to company (US$ 1.5 billion)
• It is planned to be commissioned in 2018.
Fuels
• Diesel 5.000
• Jet Fuel 1.700
• Sulphur 158
• Petrocoke 698
Petrochemical feedstock
• LPG 260
• Naptha 1.300
• Mixed xylene 460
• Reformate 524
10,100 57
Million ton
2018 2018*
TurkeyDemand
TüpraşProduction
Turkey-Tüpraş
StarSOCAR
Deficit/(Excess)
Crude Oil 28,1 10,0Semi product+Other charge 0,8Total processed 28,9 10,0Products
LPG 4,1 1,1 -3,0 0,3 -2,7Petrochem. charge: Naptha, Reformate/xylene 2,8 0,6 -2,2 2,3 0,1Gasoline 2,2 5,7 3,5 3,5Jet fuel/Kerosene 5,4 5,6 0,2 1,7 1,9Diesel 21,9 10,2 -11,7 5,0 -6,7Fuel Oil 1,1 0,9 -0,2 -0,2Asphalt 3,3 2,7 -0,6 -0,6Sulphur & other 1,8 0,5 -1,3 0,2 -1,1Coke 3,0 0,8 -2,2 0,7 -1,5
Total 45,5 28,4 -17,1 10,1 -7,0
COMPETITION # 4(Turkey consumption balance & the effect of new refinery)
*Expected to be completed by the end of 2018
58
CRUDE DEMAND
• While the demand in Asia, Middle East & Africa is still increasing, growth is less than 2015
North
America
Latin
America
Africa
Asia
Europe
Middle East
FSU
Source :IEA:14 April 2016
* Demand includes crude, NGL-condensate and Biofuels
92,8894,74
96,07+0,97
+1,85
1,33
2014 2015 2016
Million barrels/day
Global Consumption & Growth
Million Barrels/day 2008-2014 2015 2016
Demand Change (1) 5,71 1,85 1,33Capacity Increase (2) -10,02 -1,51 -0,80Refinery shut-downs (3) 5,95 0,42 0,15
Total (1-2-3) 1,64 0,76 0,68
Global Balance
+144
-20 +130
+1028
+95
-52
+85
Jap./Korea
/Oceania
-80
59
7,1
7,1
6,9
6,1
4,8
5,0
3,4
3,5
1,9
1,7
1,9
1,7
2,4
2,8
3,4
1,1
3,6
3,2
1,8
2,6
1,4
0,8
1,3
2,0
0,5
3,6
2,5
1,72,2
1,51,1
1,6
2,5
0,7
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2019
Tüpraş Contractor Total
Tüpraş HSE KPI: Loss Time Incident Frequency and Severity Frequency Ratios
Loss Time Severity Frequency Rate (2015 Target 30) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
Tüpraş 92 44 40 53 65 61 59 719 20
Contractor 116 101 81 118 424 17 378 51 20
Total 105 73 57 83 289 26 308 315 20
Incident Frequency
loss time incident freaquency rate =number of incident *1000000/man hours
loss severity frequency rate = loss time*1000000/man hours
İncluding contractors
60
42 73
135
240
345376
398 407
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Energy Index 119,1 99,2
Energy Saving Projects , mn$
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
Tüpraş Energy consumption (TJ) 76.653 65.265 67.010 70.792 71.086 69.147 67.034 90.796 577.783
Energy-saving(TJ) 978 10.891 3.155 3.053 5.255 2.841 1.772 1.031 28.976
Energy Efficiency Project 36 52 65 92 97 40 22 21 425
Savings (mn $) 42 32 62 105 106 31 22 10 407
61
