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Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3...

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Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation 7 November 2019
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Page 1: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation

7 November 2019

Page 2: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Disclaimer

2

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in

underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Page 3: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Q3 2019 Tüpraş Highlights

www.tupras.com.tr 307/11/2019Earnings Presentation

In Q3 20197.5 9567.8

Million tons of

Total Production

Million TL

EBITDA

Million tons of

Total Sales

13,6

15,914,09

14,1

16,2 16,6

July Aug Sep

2018 2019

• IMO driven crack marginenvironment have not been seen until late Q3.

• Beginning from September, diesel cracks started to outperform last year but still being overshadowed by global slowdown.

Heavy crude remains scarce

• Limited availability of heavy barrels continued to narrow the light-heavy crude price differentials, capping Tüpraş profitability.

Diesel Cracks

Fully ready for IMO 2020

• Leaving behind RUP maintenance in 1H, all refineries including RUP reached full capacity utilization in Q3 2019.

• Bitumen cargo exports reached ~600 k tons in 9M 2019.

IMO 2020 effect becoming visible

Page 4: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Q3 2019 Key Market Highlights

4

Diesel+7.1%

Jet Fuel+19.3%

HS Fuel Oil-22.1%

Gasoline-0.5%

Brent continues to remain volatile

Glo

bal

Oil

Mar

ket

Turk

ish

Mar

ket

Contraction in diesel demand is softening

IMO impact becoming visible for both diesel, jet and HSFO

Diesel

-5.1% +5.3%

Fuel Oil

+3.4%

Jet Fuel*

+1.5%

Gasoline

*Including transit flight consumption

Crack margins compared to Q3 2018 Q3 2018 Ave.75.2 $/bbl

Q3 2019 Ave.62.0 $/bbl

8M 2019 vs 2018

5,76

5,52

5,81

5,66

1.7 11.7 21.7 31.7 10.8 20.8 30.8 9.9 19.9 29.9

$/TL

TL has been floating within a limited range

-0.24 TL +0.29 TL -0.15 TL

www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Page 5: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Market

Page 6: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

12,3

13,9

14,6

16,815,4

12,2

15,6

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Diesel

Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) in 2015 - 2019

6www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Compared to Q3 2018, Mid-distillate cracks performed stronger in Q3 while HSFO cracks were depressed due to

preparations for IMO regulation change.

13,3

13,8

13,4

15,9

13,8

10,8

16,0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Jet Fuel

Higher global refinery outages /maintenances

10,912,7 12,6

4,74,5

10,5

12,5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Gasoline

-12,6 -12,4

-10,0-7,2

-5,8

-9,9

-12,3

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

High Sulphur Fuel Oil

2019 2018 2019-2015 Min - Max

Lighter shale oilprocessing leading to increase in gasoline yields globally

Unexpected refinery outages

Increasing IMO 2020 pressure

+

+

Strong seasonal demand

+

+

-

-

-

+ Elevated stock levels

Decrease in jet cargos to Europe

Early signs of shift in demand for IMO 2020

Page 7: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)

7www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2Q

1 2

01

6

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Q4

20

18

Q1

20

19

Q2

20

19

Q3

20

19

Arab Heavy

Basrah Heavy

Kirkuk

Kuwait

Ural

Average*

0

OPEC+ Cut Decision

OPEC+ Cut Decision

Iran Sanctions

*Simple average of listed differentials

Compared to Q3 2018, differentials were narrower mainly due to lower heavy crude availability in Q3 2019.

Drone Attack to

KSA

•Iran Sanctions

•Venezuela Sanctions

•OPEC+ Cut decision in 2018 andover-compliance

•Drone attack to Saudi fields

Supply Shocks on Heavy Crude

A total of ~4 mbd is missing from heavy crude pool since December

2018, leading to price increases and narrowing differentials

Page 8: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Taking a Look at 2019…

8www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Weak Crack Margin Environment in 1HDiesel +5% Jet -9% Gasoline -36% HSFO -37% IMO Impact on Cracks

Elevated Concerns on Global Slowdown

Sanctions on Iran crude

OPEC Supply Cut <100% Compliance

Venezuela Crude Exports

Drone Attack to Aramco Oil Fields

Druzba Pipeline Contamination

OPEC Supply Cut >%120 Compliance

All waivers expiredon Iran

IMO Impact on Differentials

Cra

cks

Dif

fere

nti

als

OPEC Supply Cut 100-120% Compliance

Page 9: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Operations

Page 10: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume

10www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

5,2

6,2

7,7

6,66,7

6,9

7,5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Quarterly Production (Million Tons)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

98

10

1

10

1

87

67

85

10

7

89 89 91 96

4 4 7

9

11

7

7

9 4 59

103 105 108

96

78

92

115

9994 97

105

2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19

Capacity Utilization (%)

Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total

*Capacity utilization calculation is based on 30 mn tons for Q1 2019 and onwards.

• Capacity utilization returned to peak levels after completion of RUP Maintenance.

• Our year-end guidance for capacity utilization and production remains unchanged.

Page 11: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Sales in Q3 (Million Tons)

www.tupras.com.tr 11

6,8 6,97,7 7,7

6,4

1,2 1,2

1,2 1,0

1,4

7,9 8,1

8,9 8,7

7,8

Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019

Total Sales

Domestic Sales Exports

2,6 2,9 3,2 3,42,8

1,51,3

1,5 1,5

1,4

0,6 0,6

0,7 0,6

0,7

1,1 1,2

1,3 1,1

0,7

Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019

Domestic Sales of Selected Products

Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen

07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

• We generated 7.8 million tons of total sales in Q3 2019.

• Our year-end guidance for total sales remains unchanged.

Page 12: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Financials

Page 13: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl)

www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation 13

8,3

5,7

8,9

13,5

4,0

4,9

3,8

6,5

5,1

3,3

Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019

Q3 Margins

Tüpraş Net Med Margin

• Narrow differentials and inventory loss were the main factors behind the decrease in net margin compared to Q3 2018.

Effect of hedging operations excluded from above calculations.

Page 14: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Income Statement (Million TL)

14www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Tüpraş generated 956 mn TL EBITDA in Q3 2019.

*On CMB reports. EBIT includes extra items such as FX impacts of trade receivables and payables. In our EBITDA calculation. FX related items are excluded from EBIT as customary in international practices.

Million TLQ3 Q3

%9M 9M

%2019 2018 2019 2018

Net Sales 23,309 30,247 -23 67,970 63,749 7

COGS -22,152 -26,337 -16 -64,150 -56,549 13

Gross Profit 1,157 3,910 -70 3,820 7,200 -47

Operating Expenses -451 -324 39 -1,244 -870 43

Income/Loss from other operations -98 -2,783 -407 -3,771

Operating Profit 608 802 -24 2,169 2,559 -15

Income/Loss from equity investment 63 47 34 172 185 -7

Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 671 849 -21 2,341 2,743 -15

Financial Income /Expense -817 -171 -2,214 -668

Profit Before Tax -146 678 127 2,075

Net Profit (excluding minority interest) -155 542 340 1,947

EBITDA *(mn.TL) 956 3,778 -75 3,301 7,021 -53

Inventory Gain/Loss -692 1,667 283 2,950 -90

EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 1,648 2,111 -22 3,018 4,071 -26

Page 15: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Q3 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2018-2019)

15www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Decline in profit before tax was driven by narrow differentials and natural gas price hikes.

Million TL

FX

Inventory

+2,473

-2,384

Page 16: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Financial Highlights

16www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Tüpraş recorded 3,301 MTL EBITDA in 9M 2019.

367 3351.575 1.033 851

1.080 688

1.542 2.2101.4951.144

867

1.528

3.778

9561.2081.505

1.237

1.887

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EBITDA (mn TL)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

3,799 3,301

275 79869

378-375

710331

1.457

1.027870

750

581

992

542

-155

815

803

493

1.766

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Net Income¹ (mn TL)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

1,8 1,8

1,1

1,3

1,7

1,01,1 1,2

1,3

1,1

2015 2016 2017 2018 Sep. 2019

Current Ratio & Net Debt / R. EBITDA

Net Debt / R. EBITDA Current Ratio

35%

22%

41%37%

21%

2015 2016 2017 2018 Sep. 2019

Return on Average Equity²

1) Excluding minority interest 2) Calculation based on rolling net income

3,396

5,882

8,908

2,550

1,793

3,8123,713

340

Page 17: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Balance Sheet Analysis (Billion TL)

17www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Strong balance sheet maintained.

3,9

6,8

1,5 1,50,9

4,2

1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Over 5 years

Redemption Schedule (Billion TL)

Loan Eurobond TL bond Total

0,8

-0,2

2,1

4,7

1,6

-0,7

-2,3

Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

Working Capital Requirement (Billion TL)

6,96,1 6,2

12,010,6 10,1

8,7

Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

Net Debt (Billion TL)

Proactive Financial Management

• Delevering continues despite operational headwinds

• Dynamic liquidity management ensures optimal cash and receivables management

Page 18: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

FX Exposure Management (30 September 2019)

18www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Cash

342

Forward & CFH2,463

Stock1,682

Receivables & Other Assets

98

Payables2,252

ST Financial Loans533

• RUP: 191• Other: 342

LT Financial Loans1,789

• RUP: 707• Eurobond: 700• Other Loans: 382

Consolidated Hard Currency Assets

Consolidated Hard Currency Liabilities

Million $

+11 mn $

Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX

policies to mitigate currency risks

stemming from volatility.

* Cash flow hedge accounting : 864 mn $

Page 19: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Outlook for 2019

Page 20: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

2019 Refinery Maintenance Schedule

20www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Unit QuarterDuration(weeks)

Reason Status

İzmir

Plt 100 CDU Q4 2-3 Periodic

Plt-8200 Hydrocracker Q4 2-3 Periodic

Plt-8100 Vacuum Q4 2 Periodic

Plt 9200 CCR Q1 3 Completed

İzmit

RUP Q1&Q2 11 Completed

Plt 2 Crude Oil & Vacuum Q4 7-8 Periodic

Plt 7 FCC Q4 5-6 Periodic

Kırıkkale

Batman Plt 100/1100 Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 10 Completed

Page 21: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Revisions to 2019 Expectations

21www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

• Ural-Brent differential was mostly positive in 1H and remains narrow in 2H

• HSFO cracks dropping sharply in 2H with IMO 2020

Med Complex Refining Margin Revised Down to 2.75-3.25 $/bbl

• Mid distillate cracks are supported by IMO 2020 in 2H, but concerns on demand limits full potential

• Gasoline cracks remain resilient

• Heavy Crude Differentials remain narrow in 2H

• No changes to our production (~28 mt), sales (~30 mt) and capacity utilization (95 – 100 %) targets

Tüpraş Net Refining Margin Revised Down to 4.00-4.50 $/bbl

• Some projects have been postponed in order to assess the full impact of IMO 2020 on feasibility and basic engineering studies.

• Some TL based capex is reduced in USD terms

Refining Capex Revised Down to ~150 million $

Page 22: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation 22

Appendix

Page 23: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Turkish Market, Jan-Aug (Million tons)

23www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

16,92

16,05

0 5 10 15 20

8M 2018

8M 2019

Diesel

-5.1%

1,61

1,63

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0

8M 2018

8M 2019

Gasoline

3,38

3,50

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0

8M 2018

8M 2019

Jet Fuel*

0,24

0,26

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

8M 2018

8M 2019

Fuel Oil**

* Including transit flight consumption **Excluding bunker

+3.4%

+1.5% +5.3%

Page 24: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

OPET

24www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Opet has 1,640 fuel stations as of September 2019.

885 915 938 966 1.009 1.073 1.126 1.152 1.171

394 410 418 427435

431434 463 4691.325 1.325 1.356 1.393

1.4441.504

1.5601.615 1.640

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sep-19

Opet Sunpet

Market Shareas of August 2019

18.9 %

White Product

31.7 %

Black Product

Page 25: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q3 (FOB Italy Prices)

25www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

Product

Product Price ($/ton) Tüpraş 2019 Crack Margin ($/bbl)

2019 Q3 2018 Q3 Production Yields 2019 Q3 2018 Q3

LPG 312 567 3,3% -34,2 -24,8Gasoline 604 712 18,3% 12,4 12,5Naphtha 459 638 1,2% -10,2 -3,3Jet Fuel 613 697 17,4% 16,1 13,4Diesel 577 669 33,6% 15,6 14,5Diesel 1000 570 658 1,3% 14,6 13,1Fuel Oil 1% 384 433 0,2% -2,7 -8,5Fuel Oil 3.5% 321 422 12,6% -12,4 -10,1Others 290 376 7,4% -13,5 -12,5

Dated Brent ($/bbl) 61,9 75,3 95,3%

Total Crack Margin ($/bbl) Total Processed 2019 Q3 (mn bbl)

Total Effect (mn $)

Total Effect (mn TL)

2019 Q3 2018 Q3 Difference6,7 6,6 0,1 57 5,5 31

Page 26: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

LPG4%

Gasoline19%

Naphtha1%

Jet18%

Gasoil37%

Other2%

Kok3%

Fuel Oil7%

Asphalt9%

LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil

Other Kok Fuel Oil Asphalt

Light Distil.20%

Mid. Distil.55%

Other White 4%

Black Prod.20%

Q3 Product Yields

26www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

LPG4%

Gasoline19%

Naphtha1%

Jet19%

Gasoil32%

Other2%

Kok3%

Fuel Oil7%

Asphalt13%

LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil

Other Kok Fuel Oil Asphalt

Light Distil.21%

Mid. Distil.51%

Other white4%

Black Prod.24%

2018 Q3

White Product Yield (%) 75.8%

Production 7.7 mn tons

API 30.7

2019 Q3

White Product Yield (%) 79.5%

Production 7.5 mn tons

API 31.49

Page 27: Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation · Earnings Presentation 13 8,3 5,7 8,9 13,5 4,0 4,9 3,8 6,5 5,1 3,3 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin •Narrow

Yield Breakdown (%)

27www.tupras.com.tr07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

15,519,0 17,5

14,3 15,8 16,7 18,916,0

19,4 20,1 18,6 17,4 17,4 15,8 18,2

29,9

32,4 34,1 38,5 36,0 34,4 31,9

31,0

34,2 32,132,2 35,4 33,5 35,8

36,6

45,4

51,4 51,6 52,8 51,7 51,1 50,8

47,0

53,652,2

50,852,8

50,9 51,554,8

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Middle Distillates

Jet Diesel

1,5 2,7 2,5 3,1 3,2 3,1 3,2 2,53,9 3,2 2,6 3,1 2,1 2,1 3,1

9,4

12,6 14,3 13,1

5,5

11,7

15,3 16,4

9,6

14,513,3

8,8

4,6

9,89,1

15,2 5,44,7 5

12,2

6,7

4,76,3

6,9

3,2 7,2

9

14,9

9,87,2

26,1

20,721,6 21,2 20,9 21,4

23,2

25,2

20,4 20,9

23,1

21 21,6 21,7

19,4

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Heavy Distillates

Coke Bitumen Fuel Oil

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Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)

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30.09.2019 31.12.2018 Diff. Diff. (%)Current Assets 28,945 20,962 7,983 38

Cash & C. Equivalents 10,106 5,983 4,123 69Trade Receivables 6,063 5,429 635 12

Derivatives 350 176 174 99Inventories 9,489 6,765 2,724 40

Pre-paid expenses 231 109 122 113Other Current Assets 2,707 2,502 205 8

Long Term Assets 26,735 19,074 7,662 40Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 1,368 1,271 97 8

Fixed Assets 20,290 12,397 7,893 64Derivatives 122 168 -46 -28

Pre-paid expenses 349 378 -29 -8Deferred Tax 3,114 3,566 -452 -13

Other Long Term Assets 1,492 1,293 199 15

Total Assets 55,681 40,036 15,645 39

Short Term Liabilities 27,358 15,950 11,408 72Financial Loans 3,860 4,113 -253 -6Trade Payables 17,834 7,496 10,337 138

Derivatives 288 236 52 22Provisions 201 80 120 150

Other ST Liabilities 5,175 4,024 1,152 29Long Term Liabilities 15,323 14,140 4,237 8

Financial Loans 14,990 13,836 1,154 8Payables & Provisions 278 257 21 8

Derivatives 46 42 4 10Other LT Liabilities 8 5 4 84

Total equity attributable to equity holders of the parent 12,839 9,825 3,014 31Minority Interests 161 121 40 33

Total Liabilities & Equity 55,681 40,036 15,645 39

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Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)

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($/bbl)Gross Margin Inventory Effect Clean Gross Margin Clean NET Margin Med Margin

2019 Q3 9.1 -1.4 10.6 5.4 3.3

2019 9M 9.0 -0.1 9.1 3.8 2.9

2018 Q3 17.6 3.1 14.5 10.4 5.1

2018 9M 16.0 2.5 13.6 8.3 4.5

6,9

4,6

8,5

10,7

3,7

5,3

3,6

5,8

4,5

2,9

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

9M Margins

Tüpraş Net Med Margin

07/11/2019Earnings Presentation

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9M 2019 Results

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3,7

2,9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

9M

Refining Margins ($/bbl)

Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin

98.3% total capacity utilization in 9M 2019

21,2 22,228 30

Production Sales

Operationals9M 2019 Target

22.2 mn tons of sales and 21.2 m tons of production in 9M 2019

112150

9M 2019 Target

Capex (mn $)

112 mn$ refining CAPEX in 9M 2019

98,3

0 20 40 60 80 100

9M

Capacity Utilization (%)

3.7 $/bbl net refining margin in 9M 2019

Med FY Exp

Tüpraş FY Target

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Finished Product and Semi Product Imports

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311 430

843

2.083

155

HS Diesel ULSD Jet Fuel

Product Imports (Thousand Tons)

9M 2019 9M 2018

389

549

407

0

100

395

939

351

20

81

HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO Naphtha MTBE

Intermediate Imports (Thousand Tons)

9M 2019 9M 2018

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