Date post: | 08-May-2015 |
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QUALITY@ SPEED
Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Sunday, 7 July 13
Incremental change and steady technological progress has allowed us to realise and maintain high quality products and services decade after decade......we have become masters of design, production, delivery, and support...
Sunday, 7 July 13
We are expert at designing and creating hardware based systems of very high quality and reliability from concatenated components that exhibit known imperfections and limitations in performance...
...failures and limitations are counterbalanced!
Sunday, 7 July 13
We have not enjoyed the same level of success in the realm of software and it still remains a challenging arena...
...but we have attainedworkable levels of quality through the applicationof good practice, and theevolution of standards...
Sunday, 7 July 13
Our Systems and Services now perform and deliver to a very high standard & level of quality
Sunday, 7 July 13
BUT; this is not the finishing line, nor is it the end of the story....
Sunday, 7 July 13
B e c a u s e W E
Are ENTER I NG
A NEW ERA
- Less deterministic- Emergent behaviours- Highly networked- Shorter half lives- Far more organic- Faster change
More evolut ionary than des igned
Sunday, 7 July 13
Computing power, creativity and innovation, is migrating to the periphery, toward the individual, it is multi-device, multi-screen - and it is going global...people and things on-line...
Sunday, 7 July 13
Sunday, 7 July 13
Human inabil ity
& l im itationsYears
Hal
f Life
of K
now
ledg
e
Physics <13 years
Medic < 5 years
ITC < 1 year
Time YearsSunday, 7 July 13
Years
Hal
f Life
of K
now
ledg
e
Time Years
Our mathematical framework
is limited to < 5 variables
Sunday, 7 July 13
Sunday, 7 July 13
THinG THAT
Th i n k L I N K
Communication,CollaborationAutonomy, Evolution, AI + ALSocial Nets, Work, Interaction
And they have a natural ability to synchronize without external stimulus or influence
Sunday, 7 July 13
IN TH IS WORLD
TH ING BECOME
LESS CLEARExpertise in short supply
No real experience base Outcome unpredictable
Knowledge sparseDefinitions difficult
Standards lacking
V i r g i nT e r r i t o r y
Quality will be different !
Sunday, 7 July 13
OUR PAST LOOKS LIKE
THIS - BUT THE
FUTURE
MIGHT
NOT !
Sunday, 7 July 13
perfection is
the enemy
of good
Enough
Sunday, 7 July 13
What Does
Mean ??
Sunday, 7 July 13
IT MEAns doing
sufficient
- Hitting the target once- Using miniminimal energy
- Overcoming multiple unknowns- Coping wi thmul t ip le var iab les
Sunday, 7 July 13
MOther
Nature
- Optimises nothing
- Minimizes energy and material used
- Improves to a point of equilibrium and sometimes superiority and then ceases all improvement
These are the key principals of all natural systems and applicable to those we are now engineering for the future...
. . . e m e r g e n t behaviour is the net and natural result !
Sunday, 7 July 13
and sacrif ices organismswithout a care or thought
MOther
Nature
Taps on the door of
Survival ofthe
Fortunate
Sunday, 7 July 13
THE REALLY
B A D N E W S
We are not good at complexity and/or non-linear systems:
- limited dimensional thinking- no general mathematics- no general theory- lack of expertise- minimal experience- evolutionary thinking is raw- emergent behaviours largely
unpredictableSunday, 7 July 13
T H E B I G
Question
Will any of our tried and tested design and quality control methods and techn iques work in the new a n d f a r m o r e complex future ??
Sunday, 7 July 13
AND;what will
success look
like ?
“A satisfactory result by a mechanism or mechanisms t h a t w e d o n ’ t f u l l y understand, cannot fully characterize or quantify, and non optimal in the traditional sense”
Sunday, 7 July 13
Speed
Technology
DemandChange
Expectation
NetworkingInnovation
AI AL
Accepta
nceAdaptatio
n
Sunday, 7 July 13
An accelerating
Cycle
...with more and more machine defined and dominated
cycles and integrated components
Sunday, 7 July 13
HOW Will
All This
S ha p e
Up AND
W h a t
will the
END GAME
LOOK LIKE ?
Sunday, 7 July 13
Sunday, 7 July 13
Will make new and very differentdemands of us, our infrastructures, the
way we design, produce, deliver, manage, and organise societies, companies, people... quality.....
A world of
of more
things
than
people
Sunday, 7 July 13
now is the time to
start thinking
Thank You
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANEa s s o c i a t e s
Sunday, 7 July 13