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Quantitative Analysis Dr. Said El Khouly
•Maria Bou Bakr•Mohamed Allam•Mohamed Ghareeb•Ahmed Ibrahim•Motaz Hegazy
Group: Eslsca 29B
Raya IT Raya IT Leading Technology SolutionsLeading Technology Solutions
Three operations: retail, distribution, and maintenance/warranty services
Two product groups: Personal Mobility & IT products
Trade Call Center
Prospecting / Customer Acquisition
Channel Development
Campaign Management
Serving Local & International clientsRegional Presence/Client Base
Algeria, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Iraq, Nigeria, U.S.A, Canada, Europe, UK, and
Australia
Infrastructure solutions
Business applications and solutions
IT Outsourced services (Software Engineering and e-Payment)
Information Technology
Scope of Operations
What is Forecasting?
Forecasting Definition
It is scientific process of estimating and Predict in advance.
It is NOT just a guess.
Why are we interested? Forecasts provide helpful information to make better decisions. Forecasting is easier and cheaper now
Forecasting Models Simple Moving Average
A simple, or arithmetic, moving average that is calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods
Weighted Moving Average A type of moving average that assigns a higher weighting to recent price data than does the
common simple moving average. This average is calculated by taking each of the closing prices over a given time period and multiplying them by its certain position in the data series
Smoothing Moving Average A Smoothed Moving Average is sort of a cross between a SMA and an
Exponential Moving Average, only with a longer period applied. The Smoothed Moving Average gives the recent prices an equal weighting to the historic ones
Seasonal Index It indicates the changes in the behavior of the numbers.
Consolidated Income Statement for Years 2008, 2007, 2006.
Forecasting - SMA
Actual Net Profit
2006 67 M
2007 94 M
2008 53 M
SMA for 2009 is: 71 M
Forecasting - WMA
Actual Net Profit
W A * W
2006 67 M .15 10,050,000
2007 94 M .35 32,900,000
2008 53 M .50 26,500,000
WMA for 2009 is: 69 M
Forecasting – Smoothing Average
Actual Net Profit
SF (t)
2006 67 M 67 M
2007 94 M 67 M
2008 53 M 72 M
SF (t+1) = SF (t) +ᵅ (A t -SF t)
Smoothing Average for 2009 is: 68 M
Comparison
SMA for 2009 is: 71 M
WMA for 2009 is: 69 M
Smoothing Average for 2009 is: 68 M
Thank you