Gross Domestic Product Third Quarter 2017

Department of Statistics

Department of Economic Planning and Development

Prime Minister’s Office

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

www.depd.gov.bn

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Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017

In the third quarter of 2017 (Q3 2017), Brunei Darussalam’s Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) posted a positive growth of 1.2 per cent year-on-year at constant prices (Table 1 and

Chart 1).

GDP at current prices was estimated at BND 4.0 billion in Q3 2017, compared to BND

4.3 billion in Q2 2017.

Table 1: GDP at Current and Constant Prices, 2016 - 2017

2016 2017

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Value (BND million)

Current Price 3,940.7 4,029.4 3,763.6 4,014.0 4,074.2 4,342.0 3,982.8 Constant Price 4,684.4 4,442.6 4,504.5 4,505.0 4,603.6 4,472.6 4,558.6

Year-on-Year Growth Rate (%) Constant Prices 3.5 (5.9) (3.6) (3.6) (1.7) 0.7 1.2

Chart 1: GDP Values and Growth Rate at Current Prices and Constant Prices, 2016 – 2017

3,940.7 4,029.43,763.6

4,014.0 4,074.2 4,342.03,982.8

4,684.4 4,442.6 4,504.5 4,505.0 4,603.6 4,472.6 4,558.6

3.5

(5.9)

(3.6)(3.6)

(1.7)

0.7 1.2

(8.0)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

(6,000.0)

(4,000.0)

(2,000.0)

0.0

2,000.0

4,000.0

6,000.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Gross Domestic Product

Value at Current Prices Value at Constant Prices Growth Rate at Constant Prices

BND Million %

2016 2017

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Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017

GDP by Production

A. Oil & Gas and Non-Oil & Gas Sector

In Q3 2017, the Oil & Gas sector has expanded by 0.1 per cent at constant prices year-on-

year. The expansion was mainly associated with the increase of the Manufacture of LNG and

methanol by 7.2 per cent.

Crude oil production volume recorded a decline from 111.3 thousand barrels per day in Q3

2016 to 103.2 thousand barrels per day in Q3 2017. LNG production volume recorded an

increase from 897.0 thousand Million British Thermal Unit per day (MMBtu/d) in Q3 2016 to

949.3 thousand MMBtu/d in Q3 2017.

Meanwhile at current prices, the quarterly performance showed a decreasing trend from BND

2,479.4 million in Q2 2017 to BND 2,126.8 million in Q3 2017.

This sector’s contribution to the total Gross Value Added (GVA) was about 52.6 per cent in Q3

2017. The average Oil price in Q3 2017 has expanded by 12.5 per cent from USD 46.9 per

barrel (USD/barrel) in Q3 2016 to USD 52.7 per barrel in Q3 2017; whereas Liquefied Natural

Gas (LNG) price has also expanded by 3.9 per cent from USD 7.6 per Million British Thermal

Unit (USD/MMBtu) to USD 7.9 per MMBtu in Q3 2017.

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Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017

Table 2: GVA by Oil & Gas Sector and Non-Oil & Gas Sector at Current and Constant Prices

Sector Q3 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Value at Current Prices (BND Million)

Oil & Gas 1,936.6 2,479.4 2,126.8 Non-Oil & Gas 1,883.2 1,922.9 1,912.8 Total GVA 3,819.7 4,402.4 4,039.6 Contribution at Current Prices (%) Oil & Gas 50.7 56.3 52.6 Non-Oil & Gas 49.3 43.7 47.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Value at Constant Prices (BND Million) Oil & Gas 2,652.3 2,617.5 2,656.2 Non-Oil & Gas 1,937.3 1,939.7 1,988.5 Total GVA 4,589.6 4,557.1 4,644.7 Year-on-year Growth Rate at Constant Prices (%) Oil & Gas (3.8) 1.1 0.1 Non-Oil & Gas (3.3) 0.1 2.6 Total (3.6) 0.7 1.2

The Non-Oil & Gas sector has increased by 2.6 per cent in Q3 2017 compared to 0.1 per cent

in Q2 2017.

The increase was contributed by the high growth of Construction by 16.2 per cent, followed

by Business Services 10.7 per cent, Electricity and Water 10.0 per cent, Water transport 9.8

per cent, Health services 8.2 per cent and Hotels 4.2 per cent.

At current prices, this sector was estimated at BND 1,912.8 million compared to BND 1,922.9

million in Q2 2017. This sector contributed 47.4 per cent to the total GVA.

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Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017

B. Kind of Economic Activities

The Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery sector

In Q3 2017, this sector declined by 0.9 per cent due to the declined in Forestry by 15.2 per

cent and Livestock and poultry 1.5 per cent. At current prices, the Agriculture, Forestry &

Fishery sector was valued at BND 44.0 million in Q3 2017, accounting for about 1.1 per cent

to the total GVA (Appendix 1 & 2).

The Industrial Sector

The Industrial sector continued to increase by 1.1 per cent after expanding by the same

growth in Q2 2017. This was driven by the increase in Construction activity by 16.2 per cent,

Electricity and water by 10.0 per cent, Manufacture liquefied natural gas and methanol by 7.2

per cent, Other manufacturing activity by 4.1 per cent and Manufacture of food and beverage

products by 2.5 per cent. Meanwhile, other activities were decreasing which include Oil and

Gas mining activity by 2.0 per cent and Manufacture of wearing apparel & textiles by 1.8 per

cent. At current prices, this sector was valued at BND 2,370.1 million accounting for 58.7 per

cent of the total GVA.

The Services Sector

Services sector has expanded in this quarter by 1.3 per cent. This was due to the expansions

recorded in Business services by 10.7 per cent, followed by Water transport 9.8 per cent,

Health services 8.2 per cent, Hotels 4.2 per cent, Land transport 3.9 per cent, Wholesale and

retail 3.4 per cent and Real estate & ownership of dwellings 2.4 per cent. At current prices,

services sector was valued at BND 1,625.5 million and contributed 40.2 per cent to the total

GVA in Q3 2017.

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Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017

GDP by Expenditure

The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) posted a growth of 0.6 per cent at

constant prices after an increase of 23.5 per cent in Q2 2017. The value of GFCE at current

prices was BND 949.5 million in this quarter which was a decrease of BND 107.6 million from

Q2 2017. GFCE contributed 23.8 per cent to the total GDP (Appendix 3 & 4).

Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) has increased by 2.7 per cent after an

increase of 4.5 per cent in Q2 2017 at constant price. With a total value of BND 879.1 million

at current prices, HFCE contributed 22.1 per cent to the total GDP.

Gross Capital Formation (GCF) posted a positive growth of 14.1 per cent at constant price in

Q3 2017 after an increase of 13.6 per cent in Q2 2017. The expansion in Q3 2017 was due to

the increase of Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) by 16.3 per cent. At current

prices, GCF was estimated at BND 2,197.6 million, contributing 55.2 per cent to the total GDP.

Exports of goods and services decreased by 9.1 per cent due to the fall in Exports of goods by

10.2 per cent. Meanwhile, Imports has increased by 9.6 per cent due to the expansions of

Imports of goods by 35.5 per cent.

Chart 2: GDP Growth Rate by Expenditure, 2016 - 2017

(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Government final consumptionexpenditure

Household final consumptionexpenditure

Gross capital formation

Exports of goods and services

Imports of goods and services

Gross domestic product

2016 2017

%

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Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017

Notes:

1) The new GDP series with 2010 as the base year has been released to replace the 2000-

based series. 2) The quarterly GDP is compiled by both the production and expenditure approaches at

current (nominal) and constant (real) prices. 3) Under the production approach, GDP is the sum of the value-added of the various

industries in the economy plus taxes on products minus subsidies on products. Gross Value Added (GVA) is calculated for every economic activity and then summed up to obtain the total GVA at basic prices for the whole economy. GVA cannot be measured at purchasers’ prices, as GVA is from the producers’ perspective. At the same time, GDP cannot be measured at basic prices, it is always at purchasers’ prices, as GDP is an expenditure concept and expenditures are incurred only at purchasers’ or market prices. In order to bring the GVA to GDP, the relevant taxes and subsidies need to be included on the total GVA.

GDP = ∑ GVA at basic prices + Taxes on Production – Subsidies on Products

4) GDP by expenditure is the sum of household final consumption expenditure (HFCE),

government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), capital formation or investment (I) and exports (X) less imports (M) of goods and services.

GDP = HFCE + GFCE + I + X - M

5) A statistical discrepancy (SD) is added to the GDP by expenditure to record the difference

between the GDP values obtained from the production and expenditure approaches, since GDP from production approach is treated as the firmer estimate of GDP.

6) The quarterly GDP series is not seasonally-adjusted and all growth rates are computed on a year-on-year basis, i.e. the current quarter compared to the same quarter in the previous year.