Client Management Team
Rick Phillips President & Chief Investment Officer 702-575-6666 [email protected]
Tonya Dazzio Chief Operating & Compliance Officer 702-575-6592 [email protected]
Greg Balls, CFA Portfolio Manager & Analyst 702-575-6655 [email protected]
Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 [email protected]
Dan Rusk Portfolio Analyst 702-575-6633 [email protected]
Ada County
December 2018
10655 Park Run Drive Suite 120 | Las Vegas, NV 89144 | Toll Free 888.278.7350 | www.FTNMainStreet.com
Quarterly Investment Report
Portfolio Summary
State of Idaho LGIPFederal Home Loan Mtg Corp
Market Value Federal Farm Credit BankBook Value* Federal Home Loan BankVariance Federal National Mtg Assn
U.S. TreasuryPar Value Sunwest Bank MMKT Checking
Zions BankNet Asset Value State Of Idaho DBF TR
Ada & Canyon School DistrictsPurchase Yield Ada County
Wells FargoYears to Maturity Univesity of Idaho
Modified Duration
*Book Value is at Original Cost, Not Amortized
#Sector Allocation Key: Agy=Federal Agencies, CD=Cert of Deposit, DBF= State Diversifed Bond Fund, LGIP=State Pool, Mkt Act=Bank Mkt Acct, MMF=Money Mkt Acct, Muni=Municipals, Tsy=Treasuries
2.17% 2.12%
0.84 0.71
0.83 0.70
12/31/2018
SECTOR ALLOCATION# MATURITY DISTRIBUTION CREDIT QUALITY (MOODY'S)
Ada County
ACCOUNT SUMMARY PORTFOLIO PURCHASE YIELD HISTORY TOP ISSUERS
Issuer % Portfolio 41.5% 16.3% 13.8% 6.9% 6.4% 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
12/31/18 9/30/18
$143,924,723 $194,580,101 $144,327,115 $195,494,744
-$402,392 -$914,643
$144,422,306 $195,589,936
$99.721 $99.532
Agy43.4%
Muni0.9%
Tsy4.1%
LGIP41.5%
DBF2.9%
Zions3.5%
Mkt Acct3.8% 64.3%
14.6%16.7%
4.2%
0.0% 0.2%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0-1Y 1-2Y 2-3Y 3-4Y 4-5Y 5+Y
41.5%
2.9%
3.5%
3.8%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
48.1%
0.0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
NR-LGIP
NR-DBF
NR-Zions
NR-Bank
NR-CD
NR-Ada Co
NR
Aa3
Aa2
Aa1
Aaa
P-1
1.25%
1.45%
1.65%
1.85%
2.05%
2.25%
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
NR: Not RatedPer Book ValuePer Book Value
Per Book Value
2
Investment Policy Compliance
0.84 Yrs
3.5%
0.9%
2.9%
43.4%
41.5%
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
0.0%
FTN Financial Main Street Advisors relies on the accuracy of the data provided by Ada County to compile this report.
Yes:50% limit, maximum maturity 5 years. Domiced in the United State, must fall withing FDIC limit. Deposit Accounts in State/Federal Credit Unions
Collateralized Business Market Banking Accounts/Time Deposits-State Depositories
Yes:No limit, maximum maturity 5 years.
Yes:
U.S. Federal Agencies
Idaho Diversified Bond Fund (DBF)
Idaho Local Govt Investment Pool
30% limit,15% issuer limit, maximum maturity 90 days, allowable collateral at 102% of investment, transacted with Federal Reserve Primary Dealers with rating of A-1, P-1, or F1
Idaho Public Corporations
Repurchase Agreements
Municipal Securities
20% limit, 5% issuer limit, rated A or better by 2 of 3 rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, or Fitch).
Money Market Funds
Yes:
Yes:No limit, maximum maturity 5 years.
Maturity Limits
Parameters In Compliance
Yes
Investment Ratings At time of purchase, all investments must have an A (S&P), A2 (Moody's), or A (Fitch) rating or better. Yes
Maturities of investments must not exceed 5 years, unless unanimous consent of the Board of County Commissioners is given.
Weighted Average Maturity Weighted Average Maturity (WAM) must be less than 3 years.
U.S. Treasuries
Ada County
50% Limit, 50% issuer limit for State of Idaho Bonds. 20% limit, 10% issuer limit for Idaho Counties, Cities, Districts, and Education bonds.
70% limit, rated AAA (S&P), Aaa (Moody's), or AAA (Fitch).
No limit, issuer limit 50%, maximum maturity 5 years.
12/31/2018
Yes:
Yes:
Yes:
Yes:
Yes:
70% limit.
Yes:
30% limit.
Item / Sector
4.1%
3
Historical Book Values
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Avg
FY 13 $167.8 $162.8 $156.6 $198.3 $191.6 $183.9 $182.8 $171.1 $164.4 $196.7 $186.9 $177.0 $178.3
FY 14 $173.6 $162.2 $160.6 $161.5 $191.5 $191.0 $180.0 $175.3 $176.7 $226.2 $192.9 $183.5 $181.2
FY 15 $169.2 $168.1 $156.7 $230.5 $200.3 $193.3 $184.5 $181.9 $176.8 $234.0 $164.9 $153.3 $184.5
FY 16 $140.7 $137.5 $129.7 $258.6 $179.7 $171.4 $158.5 $154.7 $149.0 $221.6 $174.8 $165.7 $170.2
FY 17 $152.2 $148.7 $139.0 $286.6 $191.5 $183.5 $172.8 $169.5 $161.6 $249.1 $186.8 $177.3 $184.9
FY 18 $165.8 $162.0 $152.4 $336.6 $211.6 $201.8 $198.7 $191.7 $181.2 $296.4 $212.8 $200.9 $209.3
FY 19 $185.5 $179.5 $159.3Figures in Millions, Average Daily Balance
12/31/2018 Ada County
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
$350
Oct
-12
De
c-1
2
Feb
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
De
c-1
3
Feb
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
De
c-1
4
Feb
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
De
c-1
5
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-1
6
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Oct
-18
De
c-1
8
Feb
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jun
-19
Au
g-1
9
Mill
ion
s
4
Historical Book Values by Fiscal Year
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Avg
FY 13 $167.8 $162.8 $156.6 $198.3 $191.6 $183.9 $182.8 $171.1 $164.4 $196.7 $186.9 $177.0 $178.3
FY 14 $173.6 $162.2 $160.6 $161.5 $191.5 $191.0 $180.0 $175.3 $176.7 $226.2 $192.9 $183.5 $181.2
FY 15 $169.2 $168.1 $156.7 $230.5 $200.3 $193.3 $184.5 $181.9 $176.8 $234.0 $164.9 $153.3 $184.5
FY 16 $140.7 $137.5 $129.7 $258.6 $179.7 $171.4 $158.5 $154.7 $149.0 $221.6 $174.8 $165.7 $170.2
FY 17 $152.2 $148.7 $139.0 $286.6 $191.5 $183.5 $172.8 $169.5 $161.6 $249.1 $186.8 $177.3 $184.9
FY 18 $165.8 $162.0 $152.4 $336.6 $211.6 $201.8 $198.7 $191.7 $181.2 $296.4 $212.8 $200.9 $209.3
FY 19 $185.5 $179.5 $159.3 $174.8Figures in Millions, Average Daily Balance
12/31/2018 Ada County
$120
$170
$220
$270
$320
$370
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Mill
ion
s
FY 19
FY 18
FY 17
FY 16
FY 15
FY 14
FY 13
5
Purchase YTM Per 6-Month Maturity Intervals
*Based on Book value
0 to .5 2.21% 56.43%
12/31/2018 Ada County
Years Purchase Yield % of Portfolio*
.5 to 1.0 1.62% 7.92%
1.0 to 1.5 2.27% 11.35%
1.5 to 2.0 1.70% 3.30%
2.0 to 2.5 2.16% 10.53%
2.5 to 3.0 2.20% 6.13%
3.0 to 3.5 2.80% 4.18%
3.5 to 4.0 0.00% 0.00%
4.0 to 4.5 0.00% 0.00%
4.5 to 5.0+ 5.25% 0.17% 2.21%
1.62%
2.27%
1.70%
2.16% 2.20%
2.80%
5.25%
1.3%
1.8%
2.3%
2.8%
3.3%
3.8%
4.3%
4.8%
5.3%
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Pu
rch
ase
Yie
ld
Maturity Intervals
Bubble Size = Maturity's % of Portfolio
6
Weighted Average Maturity and Book Yield12/31/2018 Ada County
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0O
ct-1
2
De
c-1
2
Feb
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
De
c-1
3
Feb
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
De
c-1
4
Feb
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
De
c-1
5
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-1
6
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Year
s
Weighted Average Maturity History
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Oct
-12
De
c-1
2
Feb
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
De
c-1
3
Feb
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
De
c-1
4
Feb
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
De
c-1
5
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-1
6
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Per
cen
t
Month-End Book Yield vs 0-3Yr Treasury Index (24 month moving avg)*
Portfolio
Index
7
Book Yield per WAM per Percent of Portfolio12/31/2018 Ada County
Agy
LGIP
DBF
Zions*
Muni
Tsy
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Yie
ld t
o M
atu
rity
Weighted Average Maturity (Years)
Bubble Size = Percent of Portfolio
*Seperately managed account at Zions Wealth Advisors. WAM will be greater than 1 day.
8
Interest Rate Shock Analysis
$171,406,306 -$1,099,726 -0.64%
$172,859,669 $353,637 0.21%
$0$172,506,032
+100 Basis Points
Interst Rate Change
-100 Basis Points-75 Basis Points-50 Basis Points
No Change
-25 Basis Points
+75 Basis Points
+25 Basis Points
+50 Basis Points
12/31/2018 Ada County
$173,920,582$173,538,653$173,213,307
0.82%0.60%0.41%
$171,039,731
Portfolio Value Value Change Percent Change
$1,414,549$1,032,621$707,275
-$1,466,301
0.00%
-0.44%
-0.85%
$172,124,794 -$381,238 -0.22%
-$762,477$171,743,555
0.82%
0.60%
0.41%
0.21%
0.00%
-0.22%
-0.44%
-0.64%
-0.85%-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
-100BP -75BP -50BP -25BP No Change +25BP +50BP +75BP +100BP
Per
cen
t C
han
ge in
Po
rtfo
lio V
alu
e
Interest Rate Changes/Scenarios
Instantaneous Interest Rate Changes and Estimated Changes in Portfolio's Market Value
9
Next Twelve Months Maturities
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
$74.5 $0.0 $3.0 $0.0 $1.0 $3.0 $1.0 $10.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Par Value in Millions. The DBF investment is included in the closest month.
12/31/2018
Maturities
Ada County
$74.5
$0.0
$3.0
$0.0 $1.0
$3.0 $1.0
$10.5
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
Mill
ion
s
10
Historical Sector Allocation
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
Agency 25.2% 31.6% 29.6% 34.7% 35.2% 36.3% 30.3% 31.6% 33.1% 36.8% 36.3% 43.4%
Treasury 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 4.1%
State of Idaho DBF 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0%
State of Idaho LGIP 66.7% 60.0% 61.7% 53.7% 53.0% 51.4% 59.3% 57.7% 55.6% 50.8% 51.1% 41.3%
Municipals 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%
Zions Account 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.5%
Business Mkt Acct 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.8%
Certificates of Deposit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.1% 100.0%
Sector
12/31/2018 Ada County
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
AGY
DBF
LGIP
Zions
Bs Mkt Acct
CD
Muni
TSY
11
Issuer Allocation12/31/2018 Ada County
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.6%
2.9%
3.5%
3.6%
4.1%
6.4%
6.9%
13.8%
16.3%
41.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO
Wells Fargo
Ada County
ADA & CANYON SCHOOL D #2 GEN O
State Of Idaho DBF TR
ZIONS BANK
SUNWEST BANK MMKT CHECKING
U.S. Treasury
Federal National Mtg Assn
Federal Home Loan Bank
Federal Farm Credit Bank
Federal Home Loan Mtg Corp
STATE OF IDAHO LGIP TR
12
Historical Earnings and Book Rate of Return Performance
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep$173.7 $334.8 $498.5 $662.6 $832.7 $1,009.8 $1,187.5 $1,357.5 $1,531.6 $1,688.2 $1,853.4 $2,005.5$178.2 $360.4 $496.4 $659.7 $812.5 $979.6 $1,133.8 $1,322.4 $1,540.0 $1,685.4 $1,839.0 $1,997.5$178.6 $349.5 $451.2 $539.4 $633.2 $806.4 $963.4 $1,134.5 $1,228.6 $358.4 $282.8 $270.4$75.9 $146.6 $220.6 $342.3 $375.0 $443.7 $585.9 $691.0 $790.5 $907.3 $1,018.2 $1,104.1
$105.0 $202.6 $296.7 $489.1 $623.2 $760.6 $905.5 $1,043.1 $1,172.7 $1,404.4 $1,565.0 $1,749.5$191.8 $373.9 $539.4 $933.0 $1,184.6 $1,460.3 $1,742.6 $2,031.9 $2,340.3 $2,859.5 $3,224.5 $3,571.1$341.4 $655.2 $940.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep2.17% 2.15% 2.13%
Custom Benchmark* 2.21% 2.25% 2.29%-0.04% -0.10% -0.16%
*Benchmark: 12 Month Moving Avg of the 0-3 Year Treasury ICE BofAML Index (G1QA)--Average Builds Over the Fiscal Year Period
Ada County
Variance
Book Rate of Rtn
Fiscal YTD ($000)FY 2013
12/31/2018
Fiscal YTD
FY 2014FY 2015FY 2016FY 2017FY 2018FY 2019
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tho
usa
nd
s
Fiscal Year-to-Date Earnings
FY 2013
FY 2014
FY 2015
FY 2016
FY 2017
FY 2018
FY 2019
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Book Rate of Return vs Benchmark
Portfolio
Benchmark
13
Historical Book Rate of Return Performance
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
1.15% 1.09% 0.15% 0.65% 0.95% 1.71% 2.13%
0.23% 0.26% 0.37% 0.58% 0.85% 1.61% 2.29%
0.92% 0.83% -0.22% 0.07% 0.10% 0.10% -0.16%
*Benchmark: 12 Month Moving Avg of the 0-3 Year Treasury ICE BofAML Index (G1QA)--Average Builds Over the Fiscal Year Period
Benchmark*
Variance
12/31/2018 Ada County
Fiscal YTD
Portfolio
0.92%0.83%
-0.22%
0.07% 0.10% 0.10%
-0.16%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Portfolio vs. Benchmark: Annual Variance
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Portfolio vs Benchmark Portfolio
Benchmark
14
Investment Activity
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-1835 42 40 42 39 40 39 39 39 39 39 38
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-184 8 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 00 3 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 04 11 1 6 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0
Ada County12/31/2018
Purchases
Total Transactions
Positions
Redemptions
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
Po
siti
on
s
Number of Positions at Month End
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
Nu
mb
er o
f Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
Purchases and Redemptions* (Excluding LGIP, MMF, & Bank Accounts) Purchases
Redemptions
*Redemptions include maturities, calls, and sells
15
Quarterly Economic and Market Update
December 2018
16
Economic and Market Update
*Estimates for the current quarter/month, some data are lagged Sources: FTN Main Street and Bloomberg
Case-Shiller Home Prices YOY* 5.0% 5.6% -0.5%
Consumer Confidence 1.28 135.30 -134.02
Gold (per ounce) $1,282.49 $1,190.88 $91.61
Dollar Index 96.17 95.13 1.04
U.S. Avg Regular Unleaded $2.26 $2.88 -$0.62
Retail Sales YOY* 4.2% 4.0% 0.2%
S&P 500 2,507 2,914 -14.0%
Consumer Price Index YOY* 2.1% 2.3% -0.2%
1-5 Yr A-AAA Corporate Spread 0.75% 0.45% 0.30%
Dow Jones 23,327 26,458 -11.8%
30 Year Mortgage Rate 4.51% 4.57% -0.06%
1-5 Yr Agency Spread 0.05% 0.06% -0.01%
10 Year T-Note 2.69% 3.06% -0.38%
U.S. Fed Debt Avg Yield* 2.42% 2.37% 0.05%
3 Year T-Note 2.46% 2.88% -0.43%
5 Year T-Note 2.51% 2.95% -0.44%
2 Year T-Note 2.49% 2.82% -0.33%
3 Month T-Bill 2.36% 2.20% 0.16%
Labor Force Participation 63.1% 62.7% 0.4%
Effective Fed Funds Rate 2.40% 2.18% 0.22%
U.S. Payrolls Monthly Change 312,000 119,000 193,000
Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.7% 0.2%
12/31/18
Item 12/31/18 9/30/18 Change
17
Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
As of: 12/31/18
12/31/18
1.5
3.7
3.0
2.0
-1.0
2.9
-0.1
4.7
3.2
1.7
0.5
0.5
3.6
0.5
3.2
3.2
-1.0
5.1
4.9
1.9
3.3
3.3
1.0
0.4
1.5
2.3
1.9
1.8
1.8
3.0
2.8
2.3
2.2
4.2
3.4
2.6
2.3 2
.5
2.3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
16
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q3
20
19
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)*
Estimates
18
Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
12/31/18
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
As of: 12/31/18
8.7
8.1
4.1
4.7
-0.6
7.1
2.1
2.1
-0.7
6.9
2.6
2.6
6.1
4.4
5.8
6.5 6.6
2.7
4.9
3.1
0.2
3.3
5.3 5
.6-0
.5 -0.2
5.4
4.6
5.6
3.2
-0.2
2.6
-1.9
4.6
7.3
4.2
3.5
3.5
4.2
3.7
1.9
-0.1
3.6
2.7
4.0
2.7
3.8
4.5
4.4 4
.74
.11
.01
.82
.83
.83
.32
.71
.8-0
.3-2
.82
.51
.62
.21
.72
.6 2.9
1.5
2.3
2.9
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Annual GDP *
1980s 3.2% 1990s 3.2% 2000s 1.8% 2010s 2.2%1960s 4.5% 1970s 3.3%1950s 4.2%
19
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Month Average Job Change 219,833
12/31/18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
De
c-1
5
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
De
c-1
7
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
De
c-1
8
Tho
usa
nd
s
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Change
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
De
c-1
5
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
De
c-1
7
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
De
c-1
8
Pe
rce
nt
Unemployment RatesNevada
U.S.A
California
Idaho
Washington
20
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12/31/18
128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152
De
c-0
8
Jul-
09
Feb
-10
Sep
-10
Ap
r-1
1
No
v-1
1
Jun
-12
Jan
-13
Au
g-1
3
Mar
-14
Oct
-14
May
-15
De
c-1
5
Jul-
16
Feb
-17
Sep
-17
Ap
r-1
8
No
v-1
8
Mill
ion
s
U.S. Number of EmployedFull-Time and Part-TIme
62.0
62.5
63.0
63.5
64.0
64.5
65.0
65.5
66.0
De
c-0
8
Jul-
09
Feb
-10
Sep
-10
Ap
r-1
1
No
v-1
1
Jun
-12
Jan
-13
Au
g-1
3
Mar
-14
Oct
-14
May
-15
De
c-1
5
Jul-
16
Feb
-17
Sep
-17
Ap
r-1
8
No
v-1
8
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
21
Economic and Market Update
Source: Department of Labor and Bloomberg
12/31/18
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is the actual number of people who have filed for Unemployment benefits for the first time. The following five eligibility criteria must be met in order to file for
unemployment benefits: 1. Meet the requirements of time worked during a 1 year period (full time or not). 2. Become unemployed through no fault of your own (cannot be fired). 3. Must
be able to work; no physical or mental holdbacks. 4. Must be available for work. 5. Must be actively seeking work.
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Tho
usa
nd
s
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (4 Week Moving Average)
22
Economic and Market Update
*Real: Inflation Adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: Conference Board
12/31/18
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Real* Retail Sales YOY % Change
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jun
-08
Dec
-08
Jun
-09
Dec
-09
Jun
-10
Dec
-10
Jun
-11
Dec
-11
Jun
-12
Dec
-12
Jun
-13
Dec
-13
Jun
-14
Dec
-14
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Jun
-18
Dec
-18
Ind
ex
Val
ue
U.S. Consumer Confidence
23
Economic and Market Update
CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy PCEC: Personal Consumption Expenditure Core
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis
12/31/18
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Pe
rce
nt
CPI and CPIX YOY % Change
CPI CPIX
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Pe
rce
nt
PCE and PCEC YOY % Change
PCE PCEC
24
Economic and Market Update
Sources: New (U.S. Census Bureau),Existing (National Assoc. of Realtors)
Source: Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
12/31/18
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
Dec
-15
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Au
g-1
7
Jan
-18
Jun
-18
YO
Y P
erc
en
t
Case-Shiller 20 City U.S. Home Price IndexYOY % Increase
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jun
-10
Dec
-10
Jun
-11
Dec
-11
Jun
-12
Dec
-12
Jun
-13
Dec
-13
Jun
-14
Dec
-14
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Jun
-18
Ne
w-T
ho
usa
nd
s
Exis
tin
g-M
illio
ns
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
Existing-Left
New-Right
25
Economic and Market Update
Source: U.S. Treasury
12/31/18
$9
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
Dec
-08
Jun
-09
Dec
-09
Jun
-10
Dec
-10
Jun
-11
Dec
-11
Jun
-12
Dec
-12
Jun
-13
Dec
-13
Jun
-14
Dec
-14
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Jun
-18
Trill
ion
s
U.S. Federal Debt Outstanding
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Dec
-08
Jun
-09
Dec
-09
Jun
-10
Dec
-10
Jun
-11
Dec
-11
Jun
-12
Dec
-12
Jun
-13
Dec
-13
Jun
-14
Dec
-14
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Jun
-18
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Treasury Interest Bearing Debt Avg Rate
26
Economic and Market Update
Fed Funds Anticipated Rate from the December 19, 2018 FOMC Meeting
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/18
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
2.90
3.10
3.30
Jan
-20
19
Feb
-20
19
Mar
-20
19
Ap
r-2
01
9
May
-20
19
Jun
-20
19
Jul-
20
19
Au
g-2
01
9
Sep
-20
19
Oct
-20
19
No
v-2
01
9
Dec
-20
19
Jan
-20
20
Feb
-20
20
Mar
-20
20
Ap
r-2
02
0
May
-20
20
Jun
-20
20
Jul-
20
20
Au
g-2
02
0
Sep
-20
20
Oct
-20
20
No
v-2
02
0
Dec
-20
20
Jan
-20
21
Feb
-20
21
Mar
-20
21
Ap
r-2
02
1
May
-20
21
Jun
-20
21
Jul-
20
21
Au
g-2
02
1
Sep
-20
21
Oct
-20
21
No
v-2
02
1
Dec
-20
21
Pe
rce
nt
Fed Funds vs. Fed's Anticipated Fed Funds Rate
Fed's Anticipated Rates
Fed Funds Futures
27
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
Figures may not total due to rounding
12/31/18
3Y 2.88 2.46 -0.43
30Y 3.21 3.02 -0.19
5Y 2.95 2.51 -0.44
10Y
2.20
3.06 2.69 -0.38
Change12/31/189/28/18
3M
Maturity
-0.332.492.822Y
0.032.602.571Y
0.112.482.376M
0.162.36
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Yr 5Y 10Y 30Y
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Change
12/31/18
9/28/18
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
3M
6M 1Y
2Y
3Yr 5Y
10
Y
30
Y
Bas
is P
oin
ts
Basis Point Change
28
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/18
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y
1Y
3M
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y
5Y
2Y
29
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Jan
-54
Jan
-56
Jan
-58
Jan
-60
Jan
-62
Jan
-64
Jan
-66
Jan
-68
Jan
-70
Jan
-72
Jan
-74
Jan
-76
Jan
-78
Jan
-80
Jan
-82
Jan
-84
Jan
-86
Jan
-88
Jan
-90
Jan
-92
Jan
-94
Jan
-96
Jan
-98
Jan
-00
Jan
-02
Jan
-04
Jan
-06
Jan
-08
Jan
-10
Jan
-12
Jan
-14
Jan
-16
Jan
-18
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Treasury Yields 2Yr and 5Yr - Fed Funds Target Rate
5Yr
2Yr
Fed Funds
30
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/18
Global Treasury Rates
2 Year Yields 5 Year Yields 10 Year Yields
-0.82%
-0.62%
-0.48%
-0.38%
-0.25%
-0.15%
0.47%
0.74%
1.86%
1.90%
2.49%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Switzlnd
Germany
France
Portugal
Spain
Japan
Italy
England
Canada
Australia
USA
-0.66%
-0.32%
-0.15%
0.03%
0.33%
0.44%
0.90%
1.80%
1.89%
1.91%
2.51%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Switzlnd
Germany
Japan
France
Spain
Portugal
England
Italy
Canada
Australia
USA
-0.28%
-0.01%
0.24%
0.71%
1.28%
1.41%
1.71%
1.97%
2.32%
2.68%
2.74%
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Switzlnd
Japan
Germany
France
England
Spain
Portugal
Canada
Australia
USA
Italy
31
Economic and Market Update
*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury)
Agency (GVP0) Corporate A-AAA Excluding Yankee (CVAC)
Source: ICE BofAML Indices
12/31/18
Current Spread is 5 Current Spread is 75
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
No
v-0
4
No
v-0
5
No
v-0
6
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
8
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
0
No
v-1
1
No
v-1
2
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
4
No
v-1
5
No
v-1
6
No
v-1
7
No
v-1
8
Bas
is P
oin
ts
Spread: 1-5Yr Agency* vs Treasury
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
No
v-0
4
No
v-0
5
No
v-0
6
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
8
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
0
No
v-1
1
No
v-1
2
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
4
No
v-1
5
No
v-1
6
No
v-1
7
No
v-1
8
Bas
is P
oin
ts
Spread: 1-5Yr A-AAA Corporate vs Treasury
32
Economic and Market Update
*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury)
AAA Rated ABS (R0A1) CMO Agency 0-3Yr PAC (CM1P)
Source: ICE BofAML Indices
12/31/18
Current Spread is 55 Current Spread is 56
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
No
v-0
4
No
v-0
5
No
v-0
6
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
8
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
0
No
v-1
1
No
v-1
2
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
4
No
v-1
5
No
v-1
6
No
v-1
7
No
v-1
8
Bas
is P
oin
ts
Spread: AAA Asset Backed vs Treasury
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
No
v-0
4
No
v-0
5
No
v-0
6
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
8
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
0
No
v-1
1
No
v-1
2
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
4
No
v-1
5
No
v-1
6
No
v-1
7
No
v-1
8
Bas
is P
oin
ts
Spread: 0-3Yr Agency CMO vs Treasury
33
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/18
-37.8
-22.3-20.2
-17.3-15.7
-13.5 -12.6-11.3 -10.7
-6.5 -6.4-5.0
-0.5
0.6 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.93.9 4.6
7.5
(45)
(40)
(35)
(30)
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
Per
cen
t
Selected Sector Quarterly Total Returns
34
Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/18
-19.6
-17.6
-14.8-13.8 -13.1 -13.1
-11.2
-8.5
-6.0-4.6
-3.7 -3.3-1.8 -1.6 -1.4
0.11.0 1.2 1.5 1.7
7.1
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
Per
cen
t
Selected Sector Year-Over-Year Total Returns
35
Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, FTN Main Street
12/31/18
2.45
2.55
2.65
2.75
2.85
2.95
3.05
3.15
3.25
9/3
0/1
8
10
/3/1
8
10
/6/1
8
10
/9/1
8
10
/12
/18
10
/15
/18
10
/18
/18
10
/21
/18
10
/24
/18
10
/27
/18
10
/30
/18
11
/2/1
8
11
/5/1
8
11
/8/1
8
11
/11
/18
11
/14
/18
11
/17
/18
11
/20
/18
11
/23
/18
11
/26
/18
11
/29
/18
12
/2/1
8
12
/5/1
8
12
/8/1
8
12
/11
/18
12
/14
/18
12
/17
/18
12
/20
/18
12
/23
/18
12
/26
/18
12
/29
/18
Per
cen
t
5 Year Treasury Note Yield
Powell Says Interest Rates are "a Long Way
From Neutral".
President Trump Bemoans that Powell "Almost Looks Happy
Raising Rates"
FOMC Minutes Show Desire of Some to Take Policy to
Restrictive Territory
Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall
Very Strong Jobs Report Boosts
Confidence
Dovish Statements by Fed Chair and FOMC
Members Spark Concerns
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged With
Dovish Undertones
Bullard Suggests Delaying December Hike and
Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Estimates
Hopes of Progress With US/China Trade
Deal
Fed Raises Rates But Dot Plot
Projects Slower Rate Increases
Two UK Cabinet Ministers Resign Over Brexit Deal
Yields Fall on Domestic and Global Growth
Concerns
36
Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, FTN Main Street
12/31/18
21,300
22,300
23,300
24,300
25,300
26,300
27,300
9/3
0/1
8
10
/3/1
8
10
/6/1
8
10
/9/1
8
10
/12
/18
10
/15
/18
10
/18
/18
10
/21
/18
10
/24
/18
10
/27
/18
10
/30
/18
11
/2/1
8
11
/5/1
8
11
/8/1
8
11
/11
/18
11
/14
/18
11
/17
/18
11
/20
/18
11
/23
/18
11
/26
/18
11
/29
/18
12
/2/1
8
12
/5/1
8
12
/8/1
8
12
/11
/18
12
/14
/18
12
/17
/18
12
/20
/18
12
/23
/18
12
/26
/18
12
/29
/18
Dow Jones Industrial Index
Volatility HitsMarket on Global
ScaleFed President
Williams Signals December Rate Hike
Coming
Stock Markets Experience Worst Christmas Eve Ever,
Entering Bear Market Territory
Midterm Results Point to Democrats Taking Control
of House
Strong ADP and ISM Non-Manuf. Reports
German Economy Contracts in Q3
President Trump and Xi Agree to Pause US-
China Trade WarJay Powell States
Interest Rates Near Neutral Rate
Market Fears Fed Going too Far
Dow Swings 900 Points, Turning Negative on Trump's Tariff Talk
Nonfarm Payrolls and Wage Growth
Miss Best Holiday
Shopping in SixYears Leads to
Market Rebound
37
Disclosure
This report represents the opinions of FTN Financial Main Street Advisors, LLC and should not be considered predictive of any future market performance. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, investment strategy, or investment product.
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