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Client Management Team Rick Phillips President & Chief Investment Officer 702-575-6666 [email protected] Tonya Dazzio Chief Operating & Compliance Officer 702-575-6592 [email protected] Greg Balls, CFA Portfolio Manager & Analyst 702-575-6655 [email protected] Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 [email protected] Dan Rusk Portfolio Analyst 702-575-6633 [email protected] Ada County December 2018 10655 Park Run Drive Suite 120 | Las Vegas, NV 89144 | Toll Free 888.278.7350 | www.FTNMainStreet.com Quarterly Investment Report
Transcript
Page 1: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Client Management Team

Rick Phillips President & Chief Investment Officer 702-575-6666 [email protected]

Tonya Dazzio Chief Operating & Compliance Officer 702-575-6592 [email protected]

Greg Balls, CFA Portfolio Manager & Analyst 702-575-6655 [email protected]

Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 [email protected]

Dan Rusk Portfolio Analyst 702-575-6633 [email protected]

Ada County

December 2018

10655 Park Run Drive Suite 120 | Las Vegas, NV 89144 | Toll Free 888.278.7350 | www.FTNMainStreet.com

Quarterly Investment Report

Page 2: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Portfolio Summary

State of Idaho LGIPFederal Home Loan Mtg Corp

Market Value Federal Farm Credit BankBook Value* Federal Home Loan BankVariance Federal National Mtg Assn

U.S. TreasuryPar Value Sunwest Bank MMKT Checking

Zions BankNet Asset Value State Of Idaho DBF TR

Ada & Canyon School DistrictsPurchase Yield Ada County

Wells FargoYears to Maturity Univesity of Idaho

Modified Duration

*Book Value is at Original Cost, Not Amortized

#Sector Allocation Key: Agy=Federal Agencies, CD=Cert of Deposit, DBF= State Diversifed Bond Fund, LGIP=State Pool, Mkt Act=Bank Mkt Acct, MMF=Money Mkt Acct, Muni=Municipals, Tsy=Treasuries

2.17% 2.12%

0.84 0.71

0.83 0.70

12/31/2018

SECTOR ALLOCATION# MATURITY DISTRIBUTION CREDIT QUALITY (MOODY'S)

Ada County

ACCOUNT SUMMARY PORTFOLIO PURCHASE YIELD HISTORY TOP ISSUERS

Issuer % Portfolio 41.5% 16.3% 13.8% 6.9% 6.4% 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

12/31/18 9/30/18

$143,924,723 $194,580,101 $144,327,115 $195,494,744

-$402,392 -$914,643

$144,422,306 $195,589,936

$99.721 $99.532

Agy43.4%

Muni0.9%

Tsy4.1%

LGIP41.5%

DBF2.9%

Zions3.5%

Mkt Acct3.8% 64.3%

14.6%16.7%

4.2%

0.0% 0.2%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0-1Y 1-2Y 2-3Y 3-4Y 4-5Y 5+Y

41.5%

2.9%

3.5%

3.8%

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

48.1%

0.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

NR-LGIP

NR-DBF

NR-Zions

NR-Bank

NR-CD

NR-Ada Co

NR

Aa3

Aa2

Aa1

Aaa

P-1

1.25%

1.45%

1.65%

1.85%

2.05%

2.25%

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

NR: Not RatedPer Book ValuePer Book Value

Per Book Value

2

Page 3: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Investment Policy Compliance

0.84 Yrs

3.5%

0.9%

2.9%

43.4%

41.5%

0.0%

0.0%

3.8%

0.0%

FTN Financial Main Street Advisors relies on the accuracy of the data provided by Ada County to compile this report.

Yes:50% limit, maximum maturity 5 years. Domiced in the United State, must fall withing FDIC limit. Deposit Accounts in State/Federal Credit Unions

Collateralized Business Market Banking Accounts/Time Deposits-State Depositories

Yes:No limit, maximum maturity 5 years.

Yes:

U.S. Federal Agencies

Idaho Diversified Bond Fund (DBF)

Idaho Local Govt Investment Pool

30% limit,15% issuer limit, maximum maturity 90 days, allowable collateral at 102% of investment, transacted with Federal Reserve Primary Dealers with rating of A-1, P-1, or F1

Idaho Public Corporations

Repurchase Agreements

Municipal Securities

20% limit, 5% issuer limit, rated A or better by 2 of 3 rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, or Fitch).

Money Market Funds

Yes:

Yes:No limit, maximum maturity 5 years.

Maturity Limits

Parameters In Compliance

Yes

Investment Ratings At time of purchase, all investments must have an A (S&P), A2 (Moody's), or A (Fitch) rating or better. Yes

Maturities of investments must not exceed 5 years, unless unanimous consent of the Board of County Commissioners is given.

Weighted Average Maturity Weighted Average Maturity (WAM) must be less than 3 years.

U.S. Treasuries

Ada County

50% Limit, 50% issuer limit for State of Idaho Bonds. 20% limit, 10% issuer limit for Idaho Counties, Cities, Districts, and Education bonds.

70% limit, rated AAA (S&P), Aaa (Moody's), or AAA (Fitch).

No limit, issuer limit 50%, maximum maturity 5 years.

12/31/2018

Yes:

Yes:

Yes:

Yes:

Yes:

70% limit.

Yes:

30% limit.

Item / Sector

4.1%

3

Page 4: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Historical Book Values

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Avg

FY 13 $167.8 $162.8 $156.6 $198.3 $191.6 $183.9 $182.8 $171.1 $164.4 $196.7 $186.9 $177.0 $178.3

FY 14 $173.6 $162.2 $160.6 $161.5 $191.5 $191.0 $180.0 $175.3 $176.7 $226.2 $192.9 $183.5 $181.2

FY 15 $169.2 $168.1 $156.7 $230.5 $200.3 $193.3 $184.5 $181.9 $176.8 $234.0 $164.9 $153.3 $184.5

FY 16 $140.7 $137.5 $129.7 $258.6 $179.7 $171.4 $158.5 $154.7 $149.0 $221.6 $174.8 $165.7 $170.2

FY 17 $152.2 $148.7 $139.0 $286.6 $191.5 $183.5 $172.8 $169.5 $161.6 $249.1 $186.8 $177.3 $184.9

FY 18 $165.8 $162.0 $152.4 $336.6 $211.6 $201.8 $198.7 $191.7 $181.2 $296.4 $212.8 $200.9 $209.3

FY 19 $185.5 $179.5 $159.3Figures in Millions, Average Daily Balance

12/31/2018 Ada County

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

$275

$300

$325

$350

Oct

-12

De

c-1

2

Feb

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-13

De

c-1

3

Feb

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

De

c-1

4

Feb

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Mill

ion

s

4

Page 5: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Historical Book Values by Fiscal Year

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Avg

FY 13 $167.8 $162.8 $156.6 $198.3 $191.6 $183.9 $182.8 $171.1 $164.4 $196.7 $186.9 $177.0 $178.3

FY 14 $173.6 $162.2 $160.6 $161.5 $191.5 $191.0 $180.0 $175.3 $176.7 $226.2 $192.9 $183.5 $181.2

FY 15 $169.2 $168.1 $156.7 $230.5 $200.3 $193.3 $184.5 $181.9 $176.8 $234.0 $164.9 $153.3 $184.5

FY 16 $140.7 $137.5 $129.7 $258.6 $179.7 $171.4 $158.5 $154.7 $149.0 $221.6 $174.8 $165.7 $170.2

FY 17 $152.2 $148.7 $139.0 $286.6 $191.5 $183.5 $172.8 $169.5 $161.6 $249.1 $186.8 $177.3 $184.9

FY 18 $165.8 $162.0 $152.4 $336.6 $211.6 $201.8 $198.7 $191.7 $181.2 $296.4 $212.8 $200.9 $209.3

FY 19 $185.5 $179.5 $159.3 $174.8Figures in Millions, Average Daily Balance

12/31/2018 Ada County

$120

$170

$220

$270

$320

$370

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Mill

ion

s

FY 19

FY 18

FY 17

FY 16

FY 15

FY 14

FY 13

5

Page 6: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Purchase YTM Per 6-Month Maturity Intervals

*Based on Book value

0 to .5 2.21% 56.43%

12/31/2018 Ada County

Years Purchase Yield % of Portfolio*

.5 to 1.0 1.62% 7.92%

1.0 to 1.5 2.27% 11.35%

1.5 to 2.0 1.70% 3.30%

2.0 to 2.5 2.16% 10.53%

2.5 to 3.0 2.20% 6.13%

3.0 to 3.5 2.80% 4.18%

3.5 to 4.0 0.00% 0.00%

4.0 to 4.5 0.00% 0.00%

4.5 to 5.0+ 5.25% 0.17% 2.21%

1.62%

2.27%

1.70%

2.16% 2.20%

2.80%

5.25%

1.3%

1.8%

2.3%

2.8%

3.3%

3.8%

4.3%

4.8%

5.3%

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Pu

rch

ase

Yie

ld

Maturity Intervals

Bubble Size = Maturity's % of Portfolio

6

Page 7: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Weighted Average Maturity and Book Yield12/31/2018 Ada County

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0O

ct-1

2

De

c-1

2

Feb

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-13

De

c-1

3

Feb

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

De

c-1

4

Feb

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Year

s

Weighted Average Maturity History

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Oct

-12

De

c-1

2

Feb

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-13

De

c-1

3

Feb

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

De

c-1

4

Feb

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Per

cen

t

Month-End Book Yield vs 0-3Yr Treasury Index (24 month moving avg)*

Portfolio

Index

7

Page 8: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Book Yield per WAM per Percent of Portfolio12/31/2018 Ada County

Agy

LGIP

DBF

Zions*

Muni

Tsy

2.0%

2.1%

2.2%

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.6%

-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

Weighted Average Maturity (Years)

Bubble Size = Percent of Portfolio

*Seperately managed account at Zions Wealth Advisors. WAM will be greater than 1 day.

8

Page 9: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Interest Rate Shock Analysis

$171,406,306 -$1,099,726 -0.64%

$172,859,669 $353,637 0.21%

$0$172,506,032

+100 Basis Points

Interst Rate Change

-100 Basis Points-75 Basis Points-50 Basis Points

No Change

-25 Basis Points

+75 Basis Points

+25 Basis Points

+50 Basis Points

12/31/2018 Ada County

$173,920,582$173,538,653$173,213,307

0.82%0.60%0.41%

$171,039,731

Portfolio Value Value Change Percent Change

$1,414,549$1,032,621$707,275

-$1,466,301

0.00%

-0.44%

-0.85%

$172,124,794 -$381,238 -0.22%

-$762,477$171,743,555

0.82%

0.60%

0.41%

0.21%

0.00%

-0.22%

-0.44%

-0.64%

-0.85%-1.00%

-0.80%

-0.60%

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

-100BP -75BP -50BP -25BP No Change +25BP +50BP +75BP +100BP

Per

cen

t C

han

ge in

Po

rtfo

lio V

alu

e

Interest Rate Changes/Scenarios

Instantaneous Interest Rate Changes and Estimated Changes in Portfolio's Market Value

9

Page 10: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Next Twelve Months Maturities

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19

$74.5 $0.0 $3.0 $0.0 $1.0 $3.0 $1.0 $10.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Par Value in Millions. The DBF investment is included in the closest month.

12/31/2018

Maturities

Ada County

$74.5

$0.0

$3.0

$0.0 $1.0

$3.0 $1.0

$10.5

$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19

Mill

ion

s

10

Page 11: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Historical Sector Allocation

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Agency 25.2% 31.6% 29.6% 34.7% 35.2% 36.3% 30.3% 31.6% 33.1% 36.8% 36.3% 43.4%

Treasury 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 4.1%

State of Idaho DBF 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0%

State of Idaho LGIP 66.7% 60.0% 61.7% 53.7% 53.0% 51.4% 59.3% 57.7% 55.6% 50.8% 51.1% 41.3%

Municipals 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%

Zions Account 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.5%

Business Mkt Acct 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.8%

Certificates of Deposit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.1% 100.0%

Sector

12/31/2018 Ada County

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

AGY

DBF

LGIP

Zions

Bs Mkt Acct

CD

Muni

TSY

11

Page 12: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Issuer Allocation12/31/2018 Ada County

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.6%

2.9%

3.5%

3.6%

4.1%

6.4%

6.9%

13.8%

16.3%

41.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO

Wells Fargo

Ada County

ADA & CANYON SCHOOL D #2 GEN O

State Of Idaho DBF TR

ZIONS BANK

SUNWEST BANK MMKT CHECKING

U.S. Treasury

Federal National Mtg Assn

Federal Home Loan Bank

Federal Farm Credit Bank

Federal Home Loan Mtg Corp

STATE OF IDAHO LGIP TR

12

Page 13: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Historical Earnings and Book Rate of Return Performance

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep$173.7 $334.8 $498.5 $662.6 $832.7 $1,009.8 $1,187.5 $1,357.5 $1,531.6 $1,688.2 $1,853.4 $2,005.5$178.2 $360.4 $496.4 $659.7 $812.5 $979.6 $1,133.8 $1,322.4 $1,540.0 $1,685.4 $1,839.0 $1,997.5$178.6 $349.5 $451.2 $539.4 $633.2 $806.4 $963.4 $1,134.5 $1,228.6 $358.4 $282.8 $270.4$75.9 $146.6 $220.6 $342.3 $375.0 $443.7 $585.9 $691.0 $790.5 $907.3 $1,018.2 $1,104.1

$105.0 $202.6 $296.7 $489.1 $623.2 $760.6 $905.5 $1,043.1 $1,172.7 $1,404.4 $1,565.0 $1,749.5$191.8 $373.9 $539.4 $933.0 $1,184.6 $1,460.3 $1,742.6 $2,031.9 $2,340.3 $2,859.5 $3,224.5 $3,571.1$341.4 $655.2 $940.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep2.17% 2.15% 2.13%

Custom Benchmark* 2.21% 2.25% 2.29%-0.04% -0.10% -0.16%

*Benchmark: 12 Month Moving Avg of the 0-3 Year Treasury ICE BofAML Index (G1QA)--Average Builds Over the Fiscal Year Period

Ada County

Variance

Book Rate of Rtn

Fiscal YTD ($000)FY 2013

12/31/2018

Fiscal YTD

FY 2014FY 2015FY 2016FY 2017FY 2018FY 2019

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Tho

usa

nd

s

Fiscal Year-to-Date Earnings

FY 2013

FY 2014

FY 2015

FY 2016

FY 2017

FY 2018

FY 2019

2.0%

2.1%

2.2%

2.3%

2.4%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Book Rate of Return vs Benchmark

Portfolio

Benchmark

13

Page 14: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Historical Book Rate of Return Performance

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

1.15% 1.09% 0.15% 0.65% 0.95% 1.71% 2.13%

0.23% 0.26% 0.37% 0.58% 0.85% 1.61% 2.29%

0.92% 0.83% -0.22% 0.07% 0.10% 0.10% -0.16%

*Benchmark: 12 Month Moving Avg of the 0-3 Year Treasury ICE BofAML Index (G1QA)--Average Builds Over the Fiscal Year Period

Benchmark*

Variance

12/31/2018 Ada County

Fiscal YTD

Portfolio

0.92%0.83%

-0.22%

0.07% 0.10% 0.10%

-0.16%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Portfolio vs. Benchmark: Annual Variance

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Portfolio vs Benchmark Portfolio

Benchmark

14

Page 15: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Investment Activity

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-1835 42 40 42 39 40 39 39 39 39 39 38

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-184 8 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 00 3 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 04 11 1 6 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0

Ada County12/31/2018

Purchases

Total Transactions

Positions

Redemptions

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Po

siti

on

s

Number of Positions at Month End

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Nu

mb

er o

f Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Purchases and Redemptions* (Excluding LGIP, MMF, & Bank Accounts) Purchases

Redemptions

*Redemptions include maturities, calls, and sells

15

Page 16: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Quarterly Economic and Market Update

December 2018

16

Page 17: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

*Estimates for the current quarter/month, some data are lagged Sources: FTN Main Street and Bloomberg

Case-Shiller Home Prices YOY* 5.0% 5.6% -0.5%

Consumer Confidence 1.28 135.30 -134.02

Gold (per ounce) $1,282.49 $1,190.88 $91.61

Dollar Index 96.17 95.13 1.04

U.S. Avg Regular Unleaded $2.26 $2.88 -$0.62

Retail Sales YOY* 4.2% 4.0% 0.2%

S&P 500 2,507 2,914 -14.0%

Consumer Price Index YOY* 2.1% 2.3% -0.2%

1-5 Yr A-AAA Corporate Spread 0.75% 0.45% 0.30%

Dow Jones 23,327 26,458 -11.8%

30 Year Mortgage Rate 4.51% 4.57% -0.06%

1-5 Yr Agency Spread 0.05% 0.06% -0.01%

10 Year T-Note 2.69% 3.06% -0.38%

U.S. Fed Debt Avg Yield* 2.42% 2.37% 0.05%

3 Year T-Note 2.46% 2.88% -0.43%

5 Year T-Note 2.51% 2.95% -0.44%

2 Year T-Note 2.49% 2.82% -0.33%

3 Month T-Bill 2.36% 2.20% 0.16%

Labor Force Participation 63.1% 62.7% 0.4%

Effective Fed Funds Rate 2.40% 2.18% 0.22%

U.S. Payrolls Monthly Change 312,000 119,000 193,000

Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.7% 0.2%

12/31/18

Item 12/31/18 9/30/18 Change

17

Page 18: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists

As of: 12/31/18

12/31/18

1.5

3.7

3.0

2.0

-1.0

2.9

-0.1

4.7

3.2

1.7

0.5

0.5

3.6

0.5

3.2

3.2

-1.0

5.1

4.9

1.9

3.3

3.3

1.0

0.4

1.5

2.3

1.9

1.8

1.8

3.0

2.8

2.3

2.2

4.2

3.4

2.6

2.3 2

.5

2.3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Q4

20

18

Q1

20

19

Q2

20

19

Q3

20

19

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)*

Estimates

18

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Economic and Market Update

* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

12/31/18

Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists

As of: 12/31/18

8.7

8.1

4.1

4.7

-0.6

7.1

2.1

2.1

-0.7

6.9

2.6

2.6

6.1

4.4

5.8

6.5 6.6

2.7

4.9

3.1

0.2

3.3

5.3 5

.6-0

.5 -0.2

5.4

4.6

5.6

3.2

-0.2

2.6

-1.9

4.6

7.3

4.2

3.5

3.5

4.2

3.7

1.9

-0.1

3.6

2.7

4.0

2.7

3.8

4.5

4.4 4

.74

.11

.01

.82

.83

.83

.32

.71

.8-0

.3-2

.82

.51

.62

.21

.72

.6 2.9

1.5

2.3

2.9

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

19

50

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Annual GDP *

1980s 3.2% 1990s 3.2% 2000s 1.8% 2010s 2.2%1960s 4.5% 1970s 3.3%1950s 4.2%

19

Page 20: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 Month Average Job Change 219,833

12/31/18

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

De

c-1

4

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

De

c-1

5

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

De

c-1

6

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-1

7

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-1

8

Tho

usa

nd

s

U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Change

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

De

c-1

4

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

De

c-1

5

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

De

c-1

6

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

De

c-1

7

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

De

c-1

8

Pe

rce

nt

Unemployment RatesNevada

U.S.A

California

Idaho

Washington

20

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Economic and Market Update

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12/31/18

128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152

De

c-0

8

Jul-

09

Feb

-10

Sep

-10

Ap

r-1

1

No

v-1

1

Jun

-12

Jan

-13

Au

g-1

3

Mar

-14

Oct

-14

May

-15

De

c-1

5

Jul-

16

Feb

-17

Sep

-17

Ap

r-1

8

No

v-1

8

Mill

ion

s

U.S. Number of EmployedFull-Time and Part-TIme

62.0

62.5

63.0

63.5

64.0

64.5

65.0

65.5

66.0

De

c-0

8

Jul-

09

Feb

-10

Sep

-10

Ap

r-1

1

No

v-1

1

Jun

-12

Jan

-13

Au

g-1

3

Mar

-14

Oct

-14

May

-15

De

c-1

5

Jul-

16

Feb

-17

Sep

-17

Ap

r-1

8

No

v-1

8

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate

21

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Economic and Market Update

Source: Department of Labor and Bloomberg

12/31/18

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is the actual number of people who have filed for Unemployment benefits for the first time. The following five eligibility criteria must be met in order to file for

unemployment benefits: 1. Meet the requirements of time worked during a 1 year period (full time or not). 2. Become unemployed through no fault of your own (cannot be fired). 3. Must

be able to work; no physical or mental holdbacks. 4. Must be available for work. 5. Must be actively seeking work.

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Tho

usa

nd

s

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (4 Week Moving Average)

22

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Economic and Market Update

*Real: Inflation Adjusted

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: Conference Board

12/31/18

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Real* Retail Sales YOY % Change

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

Jun

-18

Dec

-18

Ind

ex

Val

ue

U.S. Consumer Confidence

23

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Economic and Market Update

CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy PCEC: Personal Consumption Expenditure Core

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis

12/31/18

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Pe

rce

nt

CPI and CPIX YOY % Change

CPI CPIX

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Pe

rce

nt

PCE and PCEC YOY % Change

PCE PCEC

24

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Economic and Market Update

Sources: New (U.S. Census Bureau),Existing (National Assoc. of Realtors)

Source: Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

12/31/18

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jul-

10

Dec

-10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Jun

-13

No

v-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Sep

-14

Feb

-15

Jul-

15

Dec

-15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

Au

g-1

7

Jan

-18

Jun

-18

YO

Y P

erc

en

t

Case-Shiller 20 City U.S. Home Price IndexYOY % Increase

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

Jun

-18

Ne

w-T

ho

usa

nd

s

Exis

tin

g-M

illio

ns

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales

Existing-Left

New-Right

25

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Economic and Market Update

Source: U.S. Treasury

12/31/18

$9

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$21

$22

$23

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

Jun

-18

Trill

ion

s

U.S. Federal Debt Outstanding

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

Jun

-18

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Treasury Interest Bearing Debt Avg Rate

26

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Economic and Market Update

Fed Funds Anticipated Rate from the December 19, 2018 FOMC Meeting

Source: Bloomberg

12/31/18

2.10

2.30

2.50

2.70

2.90

3.10

3.30

Jan

-20

19

Feb

-20

19

Mar

-20

19

Ap

r-2

01

9

May

-20

19

Jun

-20

19

Jul-

20

19

Au

g-2

01

9

Sep

-20

19

Oct

-20

19

No

v-2

01

9

Dec

-20

19

Jan

-20

20

Feb

-20

20

Mar

-20

20

Ap

r-2

02

0

May

-20

20

Jun

-20

20

Jul-

20

20

Au

g-2

02

0

Sep

-20

20

Oct

-20

20

No

v-2

02

0

Dec

-20

20

Jan

-20

21

Feb

-20

21

Mar

-20

21

Ap

r-2

02

1

May

-20

21

Jun

-20

21

Jul-

20

21

Au

g-2

02

1

Sep

-20

21

Oct

-20

21

No

v-2

02

1

Dec

-20

21

Pe

rce

nt

Fed Funds vs. Fed's Anticipated Fed Funds Rate

Fed's Anticipated Rates

Fed Funds Futures

27

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Economic and Market Update

Source: Bloomberg

Figures may not total due to rounding

12/31/18

3Y 2.88 2.46 -0.43

30Y 3.21 3.02 -0.19

5Y 2.95 2.51 -0.44

10Y

2.20

3.06 2.69 -0.38

Change12/31/189/28/18

3M

Maturity

-0.332.492.822Y

0.032.602.571Y

0.112.482.376M

0.162.36

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Yr 5Y 10Y 30Y

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Change

12/31/18

9/28/18

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

3M

6M 1Y

2Y

3Yr 5Y

10

Y

30

Y

Bas

is P

oin

ts

Basis Point Change

28

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Economic and Market Update

Source: Bloomberg

12/31/18

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y

1Y

3M

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y

5Y

2Y

29

Page 30: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

Source: Bloomberg

12/31/18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Jan

-54

Jan

-56

Jan

-58

Jan

-60

Jan

-62

Jan

-64

Jan

-66

Jan

-68

Jan

-70

Jan

-72

Jan

-74

Jan

-76

Jan

-78

Jan

-80

Jan

-82

Jan

-84

Jan

-86

Jan

-88

Jan

-90

Jan

-92

Jan

-94

Jan

-96

Jan

-98

Jan

-00

Jan

-02

Jan

-04

Jan

-06

Jan

-08

Jan

-10

Jan

-12

Jan

-14

Jan

-16

Jan

-18

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Treasury Yields 2Yr and 5Yr - Fed Funds Target Rate

5Yr

2Yr

Fed Funds

30

Page 31: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

Source: Bloomberg

12/31/18

Global Treasury Rates

2 Year Yields 5 Year Yields 10 Year Yields

-0.82%

-0.62%

-0.48%

-0.38%

-0.25%

-0.15%

0.47%

0.74%

1.86%

1.90%

2.49%

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Switzlnd

Germany

France

Portugal

Spain

Japan

Italy

England

Canada

Australia

USA

-0.66%

-0.32%

-0.15%

0.03%

0.33%

0.44%

0.90%

1.80%

1.89%

1.91%

2.51%

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Switzlnd

Germany

Japan

France

Spain

Portugal

England

Italy

Canada

Australia

USA

-0.28%

-0.01%

0.24%

0.71%

1.28%

1.41%

1.71%

1.97%

2.32%

2.68%

2.74%

-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Switzlnd

Japan

Germany

France

England

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Australia

USA

Italy

31

Page 32: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury)

Agency (GVP0) Corporate A-AAA Excluding Yankee (CVAC)

Source: ICE BofAML Indices

12/31/18

Current Spread is 5 Current Spread is 75

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

No

v-1

8

Bas

is P

oin

ts

Spread: 1-5Yr Agency* vs Treasury

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

No

v-1

8

Bas

is P

oin

ts

Spread: 1-5Yr A-AAA Corporate vs Treasury

32

Page 33: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury)

AAA Rated ABS (R0A1) CMO Agency 0-3Yr PAC (CM1P)

Source: ICE BofAML Indices

12/31/18

Current Spread is 55 Current Spread is 56

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

No

v-1

8

Bas

is P

oin

ts

Spread: AAA Asset Backed vs Treasury

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

No

v-1

8

Bas

is P

oin

ts

Spread: 0-3Yr Agency CMO vs Treasury

33

Page 34: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

Source: Bloomberg

12/31/18

-37.8

-22.3-20.2

-17.3-15.7

-13.5 -12.6-11.3 -10.7

-6.5 -6.4-5.0

-0.5

0.6 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.93.9 4.6

7.5

(45)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

Per

cen

t

Selected Sector Quarterly Total Returns

34

Page 35: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

Source: Bloomberg

12/31/18

-19.6

-17.6

-14.8-13.8 -13.1 -13.1

-11.2

-8.5

-6.0-4.6

-3.7 -3.3-1.8 -1.6 -1.4

0.11.0 1.2 1.5 1.7

7.1

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

Per

cen

t

Selected Sector Year-Over-Year Total Returns

35

Page 36: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

Sources: Bloomberg, FTN Main Street

12/31/18

2.45

2.55

2.65

2.75

2.85

2.95

3.05

3.15

3.25

9/3

0/1

8

10

/3/1

8

10

/6/1

8

10

/9/1

8

10

/12

/18

10

/15

/18

10

/18

/18

10

/21

/18

10

/24

/18

10

/27

/18

10

/30

/18

11

/2/1

8

11

/5/1

8

11

/8/1

8

11

/11

/18

11

/14

/18

11

/17

/18

11

/20

/18

11

/23

/18

11

/26

/18

11

/29

/18

12

/2/1

8

12

/5/1

8

12

/8/1

8

12

/11

/18

12

/14

/18

12

/17

/18

12

/20

/18

12

/23

/18

12

/26

/18

12

/29

/18

Per

cen

t

5 Year Treasury Note Yield

Powell Says Interest Rates are "a Long Way

From Neutral".

President Trump Bemoans that Powell "Almost Looks Happy

Raising Rates"

FOMC Minutes Show Desire of Some to Take Policy to

Restrictive Territory

Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall

Very Strong Jobs Report Boosts

Confidence

Dovish Statements by Fed Chair and FOMC

Members Spark Concerns

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged With

Dovish Undertones

Bullard Suggests Delaying December Hike and

Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Estimates

Hopes of Progress With US/China Trade

Deal

Fed Raises Rates But Dot Plot

Projects Slower Rate Increases

Two UK Cabinet Ministers Resign Over Brexit Deal

Yields Fall on Domestic and Global Growth

Concerns

36

Page 37: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Economic and Market Update

Sources: Bloomberg, FTN Main Street

12/31/18

21,300

22,300

23,300

24,300

25,300

26,300

27,300

9/3

0/1

8

10

/3/1

8

10

/6/1

8

10

/9/1

8

10

/12

/18

10

/15

/18

10

/18

/18

10

/21

/18

10

/24

/18

10

/27

/18

10

/30

/18

11

/2/1

8

11

/5/1

8

11

/8/1

8

11

/11

/18

11

/14

/18

11

/17

/18

11

/20

/18

11

/23

/18

11

/26

/18

11

/29

/18

12

/2/1

8

12

/5/1

8

12

/8/1

8

12

/11

/18

12

/14

/18

12

/17

/18

12

/20

/18

12

/23

/18

12

/26

/18

12

/29

/18

Dow Jones Industrial Index

Volatility HitsMarket on Global

ScaleFed President

Williams Signals December Rate Hike

Coming

Stock Markets Experience Worst Christmas Eve Ever,

Entering Bear Market Territory

Midterm Results Point to Democrats Taking Control

of House

Strong ADP and ISM Non-Manuf. Reports

German Economy Contracts in Q3

President Trump and Xi Agree to Pause US-

China Trade WarJay Powell States

Interest Rates Near Neutral Rate

Market Fears Fed Going too Far

Dow Swings 900 Points, Turning Negative on Trump's Tariff Talk

Nonfarm Payrolls and Wage Growth

Miss Best Holiday

Shopping in SixYears Leads to

Market Rebound

37

Page 38: Quarterly Investment Report Ada County December 2018 › ... › Investment-Report_FY18-1st-Quarter_12… · Christine Wilson Operations Analyst 702-575-6640 christine.wilson@ftnmainstreet.com

Disclosure

This report represents the opinions of FTN Financial Main Street Advisors, LLC and should not be considered predictive of any future market performance. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, investment strategy, or investment product.

Although this information has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. All herein listed securities are subject to availability and change in price. Past performance is not indicative of future results, while changes in any assumptions may have a material effect on projected results. Ratings on all securities are subject to change.

FTN Financial Group, FTN Financial Capital Markets, FTN Financial Portfolio Advisors and FTN Financial Municipal Advisors are divisions of First Tennessee Bank National Association (FTB). FTN Financial Securities Corp (FTSC), FTN Financial Main Street Advisors, LLC, and FTN Financial Capital Assets Corporation are wholly owned subsidiaries of FTB. FTSC is a member of FINRA and SIPC—http://www.sipc.org/.

FTN Financial Municipal Advisors is a registered municipal advisor. FTN Financial Portfolio Advisors is a portfolio manager operating under the trust powers of FTB. FTN Financial Main Street Advisors, LLC is a registered investment advisor. None of the other FTN entities including, FTN Financial Group, FTN Financial Capital Markets, FTN Financial Securities Corp or FTN Financial Capital Assets Corporation are acting as your advisor and none owe a fiduciary duty under the securities laws to you, any municipal entity, or any obligated person with respect to, among other things, the information and material contained in this communication. Instead, these FTN entities are acting for their own interests. You should discuss any information or material contained in this communication with any and all internal or external advisors and experts that you deem appropriate before acting on this information or material.

FTN Financial Group, through FTB or its affiliates, offers investment products and services. Investment Products are not FDIC insured, have no bank guarantee and may lose value.

38


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