Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy

3 - 2016

October 11th, 2016This presentation is supported by

Various developments in the current period

• Positive developments: international tourism, low energy prices, increasing transactions

• On the negative side: increase of tax rates, difficulties in liquidity, deterioration of investment climate due to the referendum in the United Kingdom

• On the basis of the available data, the growth rate for 2016 will probably be slightly worse than what forecasts from official bodies suggested

The most important issue is whether the necessary conditions will be created, that will lead to sustainable growth in the

medium and long term

It is necessary to create the conditions for sustainable growth in the medium-term

• Are Greek producers becoming more competitive?

• Some sectors and individual companies respond to the changes of relative prices

• The Greek economy remains one of the most closed economies in Europe, and it tends to become even more closed

• Greece continues to rank low the international competitiveness indicators

• Has the Greek economy become less dependent on the public sector?

• Some public sector operations have been limited due to fiscal contraction

• Despite decreasing public sector output, the overall share of the public sector in Greek economic activity has not decreased, as output in the rest of the economy has contracted even more

Public Sector Gross Value Added as % of total GVA

Source: Eurostat

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Euro area 19 Greece

The public sector contributes significantly to increasing employment

Contribution to employment increase per sector 1st half of 2015 - 1st half of 2016

Source: ELSTAT

Economy openness to foreign investment* (% GDP)

Source: European Central Bank

* (Receivables + Liabilities) / GDP. Receivables and Liabilities regarding i) Foreign Direct Investment, ii) Portfolio

Investments και iii) Other investments

-200%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cyprus France Greece Ireland Portugal Slovakia

General Government Liabilities

Source: General Government Monthly Bulletin, General Accounting Office, Greek Ministry of Finance 2014-2016

Remarks regarding public debt

• Greek debt has special characteristics relative to its

composition, maturity and interest rate profiles assessing its

impact on the economy requires careful detailed analysis

• The direct pressure of the public debt on the budget for the next

few years is relatively small

• The uncertainty that the public debt burden creates, inhibits

economic activity

Tenacious insistence on achieving budget surpluses and

consequently putting less emphasis on improving the efficient

functioning of markets and public administration, will not help

the Greek economy in the medium term

The efficient functioning of institutions is a major issue

• The international experience and modern economic analysis

suggest that sustainably high growth rates, especially in high

income economies, crucially depend in the medium term on

efficiently functioning institutions

• The less transparent, independent and efficient the functioning of

institutions, the more difficult it is to convince potential investors to

take up projects in Greece, including human capital intensive

projects

Quarterly Report Overview

International growth stability

• Slight deceleration of global growth in 2016, at 3.1%, against 3.2% in2015 as growth in the major economic zones of the world is weakening

• Slowdown of international trade growth in 2016 (2.3%), acceleration in 2017 (3.8%)

• Demand in developed economies contracted at 2.4% in 2016

• In developing countries, imports are expected to recover in 2016

• Euro area: +1.6% (2016), against +2.3% in 2015

Uncertainty factors in 2017:i. Brexit: terms, characteristics, implementation speed

ii. Slow growth in many regions of the world (USA, Euro Area, China, Brazil)

iii. Weak role of monetary policy in Europe and in the USA. In search of a role for fiscal policy

iv. Monetary authorities are currently standing by, but they may take further measures to balance markets (e.g. increase in interest rates in the USA, expansion of quantitative easing in the Euro Area, depended on the prevailing trend in prices)

In recession now for a year…

Decreasing GDP (Apr. - June 2016): -0.9%, close to Q1 ’16 ( -1.0%),

against growth by 0.8% in Q2 ’15

Recession by 1.0% in the 1st semester of 2016,

against +0.6% in the same period of 2015

The recession continues in Q2 because of:

• Further decrease of household consumption (-1.9% over -1.3% in Q1)

• Deterioration of external trade balance

o Exports contraction similar to that of Q1 (≈-11.5%), but

o Easing contraction of imports, at -7.1% from -11.9% the relaxation of capital controls in March seemingly helped imports

The 2016 State Budget is on course to meet targets

• In the first 8 months of 2016 the primary surplus exceeded the target : primary surplus €3.77 billion, against a target of €980 million

• Primary expenditure is under control:

− Currently €3.36 billion below the target, yet there are still expenditures that cannot be avoided, summing up to approximately that amount

− Expenditures for wages and pensions, grants for social security funds, grants for the Public Investment Program where lower than forecasted

− But also deceleration of expansion of liabilities in 2016 at €216 million(payments €1.35 billion in July - August)

• The revenues of the Regular Budget expanded:

− Income tax revenue from legal entities were higher by 14.1% – low income tax revenue from individuals

− Almost all targets for revenue from indirect taxes are met

However, considering the breadth and the intensity of the tax regulations introduced recently (since July 2015), the increase of public revenue was rather small

2017 Draft State Budget

• Deficit reduction by €1.25 billion, to 1.9% of GDP

• Expansion of the primary surplus by €1.15 billion, to1.2% of GDP

• To achieve the target, State Budget expenditures are planned to be cut (by

€1.33 billion) and net revenues are planned to increase (by €129 million).

• However, the tax revenues (direct + indirect taxes) are planned to rise by €1.84

billion, from the recent and forthcoming taxation measures that will apply from 1/1/2017

• The revenues from granting licenses and rights will decline further, by €1.04

billion, reaching €437 million

The effort to achieve for a larger primary surplus in 2017 will imply

additional burdens mainly on taxpayers, households and businesses

Improved Industrial Production(mainly manufacturing)

Sources: ELSTAT, Eurostat

Jan. – July 2016: +3.2%, against Jan. – July 2015: -0.3%

Manufacturing +5.0%, Mining - Quarrying -19.5%, Electricity -1.2%, Water supply +0.2%

Industrial Production Index

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Q1

'05

Q2

'05

Q3

'05

Q4

'05

Q1

'06

Q2

'06

Q3

'06

Q4

'06

Q1

'07

Q2

'07

Q3

'07

Q4

'07

Q1

'08

Q2

'08

Q3

'08

Q4

'08

Q1

'09

Q2

'09

Q3

'09

Q4

'09

Q1

'10

Q2

'10

Q3

'10

Q4

'10

Q1

'11

Q2

'11

Q3

'11

Q4

'11

Q1

'12

Q2

'12

Q3

'12

Q4

'12

Q1

'13

Q2

'13

Q3

'13

Q4

'13

Q1

'14

Q2

'14

Q3

'14

Q4

'14

Q1

'15

Q2

'15

Q3

'15

Q4

'15

Q1

'16

Q2

'16

Jul.

'16

Euro area 19 Greece

The industrial production index rises, yet turnover and prices fall significantly

Source: ELSTAT

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Q1

'14

Q2

'14

Q3

'14

Q4

'14

Q1

'15

Q2

'15

Q3

'15

Q4

'15

Q1

'16

Q2

'16

Jul.

'16

Turnover Industrial Production

Industrial production index and industrial turnover

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

Q1

'14

Q2

'14

Q3

'14

Q4

'14

Q1

'15

Q2

'15

Q3

'15

Q4

'15

Q1

'16

Q2

'16

Jul.

'16

Producer prices

Construction: slight increase in the 1st half of 2016

Production index in Construction and Building Activity Indicator

(quarterly y-o-y changes)

Sources: ELSTAT, Eurostat1st half of 2016: +2.3%

1st half of 2015: +22.0%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Q1

20

06Q

2 2

006

Q3

20

06Q

4 2

006

Q1

20

07Q

2 2

007

Q3

20

07Q

4 2

007

Q1

20

08Q

2 2

008

Q3

20

08Q

4 2

008

Q1

20

09Q

2 2

009

Q3

20

09

Q4

20

09Q

1 2

010

Q2

20

10Q

3 2

010

Q4

20

10Q

1 2

011

Q2

20

11Q

3 2

011

Q4

20

11Q

1 2

012

Q2

20

12Q

3 2

012

Q4

20

12

Q1

20

13Q

2 2

013

Q3

20

13Q

4 2

013

Q1

20

14Q

2 2

014

Q3

20

14Q

4 2

01

4Q

1 2

015

Q2

20

15Q

3 2

015

Q4

20

15Q

1 2

016

Q2

20

16Q

3 2

016

Building activity Indicator Greece (left scale) Production Index Greece (right scale) Production Index Euroarea-19 (right scale)

Deterioration of Retail Trade, yet not uniformly across subsectors

Jan. – July 2016: -1.8%, against -0.9% in Jan. – July 2015.

Excluding fuel: -0.6%

Sources: IOBE, ELSTAT

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Volume Index in Retail Trade (left scale) Business Expectations Index (right scale)

Volume Index in Retail Trade (2010=100) and Business Climate Index in Retail Trade

(1996-2006=100)

…fuel, food, pharmaceuticals

Sources: IOBE, ELSTAT

Jan. – July

2014

Jan. – July

2015

Jan. – July

2016

Overall Index -1.1% -0.9% -1.8%

Overall Index (except automotive

fuel, 2000=100)-1.7% 0.0% -0.6%

Super markets -0.9% 0.1% -1.5%

Department stores -5.6% -5.2% 11.2%

Automotive fuel 1.7% -0.4% -4.8%

Food, Beverages and Tobacco -4.9% -5.8% 0.6%

Pharmaceutical products,

Cosmetics-3.6% -0.9% -4.2%

Clothing and footwear 6.8% 5.3% 8.7%

Furniture, electrical & household

equipment-2.2% -3.7% 1.1%

Books, stationery, other goods 8.6% 4.9% -3.6%

Volume index of Retail Trade (2010=100)

Various trends in Services

Sources: IOBE, ELSTAT

Turnover Index in Tourism (Accommodation and Food Services)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Index 61 98 158 63 48 96 157 51 39 80 146 42 32 84 148 58 47 90 159 64 48 98 167 59 43 97

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

The economic sentiment in Greece improved slightly in Q3 2016, reaching a significantly higher level compared to a year earlier. In the Euro Area, the economic sentiment

remained stable, while in the EU it deteriorated slightly

Sources: ΙΟΒΕ, European Commission

Economic Sentiment Indicator

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Mar

-12

Sep

-12

Mar

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Economic Sentiment EU Economic Sentiment EA

Economic Sentiment Greece Average, Greece (2001-2015)

Business expectations in Services improved in Q3, but they deteriorated in the other sectorsBusiness expectations recovered compared with a year earlier in all sectors, except Construction

Source: ΙΟΒΕ

ConstructionIndustry

Retail Trade Services

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

10

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Mar

-12

Sep

-12

Mar

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Industry Greece

Average, Greece (2001-2015)

Industry - Euroarea (right scale)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Mar

-12

Sep

-12

Mar

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Construction Greece

Average, Greece (2001-2015)

Construction - Euroarea (right scale)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Sep-0

5M

ar-

06

Sep-0

6M

ar-

07

Sep-0

7M

ar-

08

Sep-0

8M

ar-

09

Sep-0

9M

ar-

10

Sep-1

0M

ar-

11

Sep-1

1M

ar-

12

Sep-1

2M

ar-

13

Sep-1

3M

ar-

14

Sep-1

4M

ar-

15

Sep-1

5M

ar-

16

Sep-1

6

Retail Trade Greece

Average, Greece (2001-2015)

Retail Trade - Euroarea (right scale)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Sep-0

5M

ar-

06

Sep-0

6M

ar-

07

Sep-0

7M

ar-

08

Sep-0

8M

ar-

09

Sep-0

9M

ar-

10

Sep-1

0M

ar-

11

Sep-1

1M

ar-

12

Sep-1

2M

ar-

13

Sep-1

3M

ar-

14

Sep-1

4M

ar-

15

Sep-1

5M

ar-

16

Sep-1

6

Services Greece

Average, Greece (2002-2015)

Services - Euroarea (right scale)

Consumer Confidence in Greece improved in the third quarter, yet it was lower than a year earlier

It was stable in the Euro Area and it declined in the EU

Sources: ΙΟΒΕ, European Commission

Consumer Confidence

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

00

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Mar

-12

Sep

-12

Mar

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Consumer Confidence E.U Consumer Confidence EA

Consumer Confidence Greece Average, Greece (2001-2015)

Unemployment declined for the ninth consecutive quarter

Number of unemployed people and unemployment rate, 2008-2016

The unemployment rate reached 23.1% (Q2/2016), from 24.6% in Q2/2015 and 24.9% in Q1/2016. Higher employment in 16 sectors / lower in 5 sectors. Indicatively: Electricity and natural gas supply (+18.7%),Public administration and defense (+9.1%), Accommodation services (+5.5%), Manufacturing (+5.5%), Construction(+3.5%), Professional and technical activities (-9.1%), Other services (-15.5%).

Source: ELSTAT

The public sector contributes significantly to increasing employment

Contribution to employment increase per sector 1st half of 2015 - 1st half of 2016

Source: ELSTAT

The Current Account Balance improved in the period January – July 2016…

Current Account Balance, January - July 2002-2016

Source: Bank of Greece

…with a reduced deficit in the balance of goods, and a reduced surplus increase in the balance of services The borrowing needs of the Greek economy have been low over the past 4 years

The deficit in the trade of goods increased by 8.7% in the period January - July 2016

January – July 2016:

Exports : -7.2% (€14 billion) including fuel

• -1.3% (€10.7 billion) excluding fuel and shipping

Imports: -1% (€24.5 billion)

Trade deficit: +8.7%

Strong decline: Fuel (-22.5%), Raw materials(12.9%)

Increase: Agricultural Goods (6.3%)

Markets:

Losses: E.A.(0.1%), EU-28 (0.3%), Turkey (34.4%),Finland (15.9%), Italy (7.7%), United Kingdom(5.5%), Bulgaria (6.8%), Croatia (15.5%), Russia(12.4%), USA (18.3%),

Increase: Netherlands (22.8%), Spain (3.6%),Austria (4.3%), Portugal (5.2%), Germany (3.7%),Poland (11.4%), Czech Republic (3.7%), Romania(5.4%), China (39.1%)

Source: ELSTAT

Weak decline of price levels in Jan. – Aug. 2016, approx. -1%

Upward trend of sub-indices for Health (+2.5%), Hotels (+2.6%) andAlcoholic beverages (+1.4%)

Deflation recedes, but it is still high

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

May

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

May

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

Euro are 19 Greece

Harmonized Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat

Medium-term developments

Mild improvement of the economic environment in Greece after the

1st evaluation of the Economic Adjustment Programme

• Decline of uncertainty due to the implementation of the 3rd

Programme

• Increase in the deposits of businesses and households, deceleration

of credit tightening to businesses, mild increase of the Economic

Sentiment index

• It is positive for the Greek economy that there have not been

significant repercussions from Brexit until now. However, the

condition of the immigration problem is deteriorating.

The current easing of uncertainty does not imply that

confidence in the Greek economy has been restored

Medium-term developments…

Serious concerns are still present:

• Managing Non Performing Loans, under the new regulatory framework: obstacle to decision making at least for 2017

• Rising burdens for households from increases in direct and indirect taxation, social security contributions, further cuts in pensions The consumer confidence index is

consistently lower than in the previous year

• Changes in corporate taxation for small businesses (businesses with 2nd class accounting registers), in dividend taxation, in corporate social security contributions

• Especially for professionals/freelancers, VAT increase, changes in the way social security contributions will be calculated and vagueness regarding the implementation of the new regulations many businesses may switch to another legal form or may

move headquarters abroad

• Uncertainty concerns:

• Capital controls are still in place and it is still not clear when they will be lifted

• Institutional confusion from political interventions, overlapping responsibilities

Medium-term developments…

If liquidity and growth prospects keep improving, the sectors that

currently demonstrate strong growth potential can benefit

• Manufacturing: continuous, strong upward trend since April

• Construction: slight increase of output in the 1st half of the year

due to public works. Investments will start in 2017, as a result

of privatizations - concessions

• Tourism: mild decline of international receipts, consolidation of

the significant gains in the period 2013 – 2015

Medium-term developments

Crucial developments in the near future

• Negotiations for the public debt – implementation of short-term relief measures (Eurogroup 05/25/2016) – IMF involved in the Programme

• 2nd evaluation of the Programme – new regulatory framework in the labor market

• Relations between Turkey and the EU and refugee flows

International economic factors

• Small increase of oil prices this year after the recent decision for production reduction. Mild increase of oil production next year.

• Relatively stable €/$ exchange rate in the remaining months of 2016 and in 2017

2016 Forecasts

• Private consumption will rise in the 2nd half of 2016. There will be significant

private consumption growth, as a result of the fact that private consumption was

particularly low in the same period a year earlier, but also as a result of a mild

decline in unemployment. For calendar-year 2016, private consumption will decline

by 0.3 to 0.5%

• Mild increase of public consumption in the second half of 2016, contraction by

0.8% to 1.2% for calendar-year 2016

• Increase in investment (≈ 10.0-11.0%):

o Temporary sharp rise in investment in transportation equipment in Q2, due to new

vehicle registration taxes

o Technical effects of changed in inventories (increase this year – contraction last year)

o Frontloaded implementation of the Public Investment Programme and a small increase

in the related expenditure – Continuing higher activity in public works

o The contraction of credit to businesses eased in the 2nd half of 2016 (deposits returned

to Greek banks, the ECB reinstated the waiver regarding Greek bonds used as

collateral in the Eurosystem)

2016 Forecasts

External Sector: technical neutralization of the effects of the capital controls

Increased exports in the period July - December, mainly exports of services (transportation – other services)

o Exports in calendar-year 2016 will decline (≈ -5.5%)

Stronger increase of imports in 2nd half of 2016

o The decline of imports in calendar-year 2016 is expected to be at -1.5% to - 2.0%

Deterioration of external balance due to increasing imports

After the significant revision of the estimated GDP in

the first quarter of the year, a milder recession (by

0.5%) is forecasted for calendar-year 2016

2016 ForecastsFurther unemployment reduction, yet slower

•Continuing expansion of employment in Tourism – Manufacturing – Construction, as in the 1st half of the year.

•The boosting effect of the Public Sector on employment will weaken

•The new measures taken by the government (taxation etc.) will affect private consumption, as well as employment, in sectors providing goods and services for consumers (Retail Trade)

•Professionals and other freelancers will go through a transitional period in the fourth quarter, as a result of the changes in taxation and in the calculation of social security contributions that will affect them from January 2017

Unemployment rate slightly lower than 24% in calendar-year 2016

Deflation will continue in calendar-year 2016

Prices will keep falling in Q3 at the same rate as in the previous quarters, despite the VAT increase

In Sept – Dec 2015 the price reduction slowed down this favors a slight strengthening of deflation in the last months of 2016

Deflation by 1.1% in calendar-year 2016

Initial forecasts for 2017

• Private consumption increase (by approx. 1.0 to 1.5%) mainly due to continuous

unemployment reduction

o Private consumption increase will be held back by the effects of the fiscal measures taken in

2016, and the ones that will be applied from 1/1/2017

• Mild expansion of public consumption

o The fiscal adjustment will continue, mainly with higher taxation revenues and, to a smaller

extent, with expenditures reduction (Draft State Budget 2017)

• Investment boost (approx. 8-10%) from:

o Works for projects related to completed privatization-concessions

o Lower energy cost (abolition of excise tax on natural gas for industrial use)

o Consistently high demand for exports in several manufacturing sectors

But also:

o Negative effects from corporate tax increase, changes in direct taxation – social security

contributions for professionals/freelancers, higher property taxes

o A restructuring of Non-Performing-Loans to businesses may be brought forward

Initial forecasts for 2017

External Sector

Exports expansion as a result of further easing of restrictions regarding capital transfers and acceleration of European and global trade (+5%)

Any increase in domestic demand (consumption and investment)

will be directed to a great extent to demand for imports (+6-7%)

o Note: In 2014 domestic demand increased by 1.2%, resulting to an increase of imports by

7.8%

Continuation of unemployment decline: ~22.5%

Rising prices (oil price increase, indirect taxation, strengthening demand)

CPI increase by 1.3%

Recovery prospects in 2017, by 1.5-2.0%

Presentation of ΙΟΒΕ study:

The economic impact of the development of the Hellinikon area

Purpose of the Study

Purpose of the study

Assessment of the impact on the Greek economy from developing the area of Hellinikon and the coastal area of Agios Kosmas, on the basis of the terms of the contract for the sale of the shares of Hellinikon S.A. to Hellinikon Global I S.A.

Economic Effects

• Boosted demand for products and services in the area of project

• Increased public revenues from the construction and functioning of the planned facilities

• Increased employment in the planned facilities

Effects in the area around Hellinikon

• Public revenues from selling/leasing public property

• Positive impact on the Greek GDP due to increased demand

• Higher employment, higher householdincomes, gains in terms of know-how, andimproved productivity

Impact on the Greek economy overall

Development of the area of the old airport at Hellenikonfrom “Hellinikon Global I S.A.”

40

• Old airport and the area of Agios Kosmas

• Total area 6.2 million m2

• Metropolitan park to be created 2 million m2

• Price of shares: €915 million

• Expected further investments: €7.2 billion

• €1.5 billion for developing park facilities and infrastructure

Area of Hellenikon and Agios Kosmas

Park

Residential buildings

Shopping centers/

Malls

Conference centers

Research and training

Hotels

Recreational facilities

Infrastructure

Gradual increase of public revenues (on average 563 million euros annually for 25 years).

41Total Revenues: €14.1 billion

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

€m

illio

n

Year

Public revenues per source over the 25-year investment period

VAT Social security contributions Property transfer taxes

Corporate taxes Personal income taxes Property ownership taxes

Source: IOBE estimations

Macroeconomic effects: higher GDP by €7.4 billion(2.4%) and 90,000 jobs in 2041

42

Source: ΙΟΒΕ estimations

Note: To assess the impact on employment, we run estimations of employment trends in Greece under two scenaria: a scenario under which the investment in Hellenikon takes place and a scenario under which there is no such investment. The difference of employment estimations between these two scenaria is the impact of the project on employment.

15,000 from supply factors in the total

economy

further 54,000 from demand factors in the

total economy

21,000 from demand factors in the Hellinikon

area

Impact on employment 2041

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Perc

enta

ge d

evia

tio

n o

f le

vels

Total impact on GDP from the demand and supply factors

Demand factors Supply factors

With the revenue from selling the shares of Hellinikon S.A., the Government will be able avoid taking fiscal measures that would yield equivalent budgetary results

43

• Selling the shares of Hellinikon S.A.:

• The loss of 10,000 jobs will be avoided

• A decline in GDP by 0.2 percentage points (€0.3 billion) in the first year of contract will be avoided

• Important medium-term contribution of the project to public debt reduction

• The debt to GDP ratio will be reduced by 15 percentage points in the end of the project

Conclusions

44

• The area of the old airport at Hellinikon is a particularly advantageous

asset both at the national level and globally

• The development of the area is expected to have many positive effects

on the Greek economy and society

• Selling the shares of Hellinikon S.A. to Hellinikon Global I S.A. and

subsequently carrying out the project of developing the area can

greatly contribute to boosting confidence that Greece is a safe

destination for investment

www.iobe.gr

twitter.com/IOBE_FEIR

Thank you!