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Questions from the Thinker
Think about it . . . . . . .
1d
2d
3d
<= Infinity.
black-hole0d
R1 R2
x1
x2
x3
x4
x5
XN ...
n-dimensional =>
What is Design of Experiments?And why is DOE important?
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Discussion: Edison & Einstein
• Edison: I didn’t fail 10,000 times, I learned 10,000 ways that won’t work.• Einstein: I could have worked out the physics in a week.
• Edison: But would you prove it’s the optimum solution?• Einstein: Yes, I see the value of Design of Experiments!
DOE
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Terminology of the DOE Science• DOE: statistical modeling of test plans• Factors: measurables affecting response• Response(s): the desired measurable(s)• JMP/DOE: interactive software platforms• Evaluation: statistical goodness measure !• Iteration: repeating the designs and tests
(on products, or enterprise, or services!)Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation
The full suite of DOE platforms
n-factorResponseOptimizer
DefinitiveScreening
Design{Ver.11}
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Envision, Plan, Do, Check, Act• PLAN (design) the experiment; • DO the experiment by performing the steps; • CHECK the results by testing the information; • and ACT on the decisions based on those results.
Envision
Plan
Do
Check
Act
Envision >> Plan >> Do >> Check >> Act! {[(repeat)]}He is perhaps best known for the cycle of
professor, author, lecturer and consultant.was an American statistician,
Dr William Edwards DemingW. Edwards Deming:
ContinualImprovement
{settle in…}
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The JMP Starter window
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Full-FactorialThe basis of the science is to choose ranges for the n factors and assign a top value and low value for each factor. The factors can be varied and starting optimum results calculated. The icon picture represents an n-dimensional cube and if a middle dot is shown, it means a middle value can also be used.
Math example: 5! = 5x4x3x2x1 = 120 cases“Five factorial has 120 combinations!”
(If too costly, we can try to do better.)
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Custom Design
The JMP Custom Design allows you to tailor your plan of experiments to meet specific requirements. Custom Design is often the first choice that one choses from the available design options. This is most advisable!
Design professionals begin with Custom Design.
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{RSM} (response surface method)
At some point, you want to do some auxiliary statistical graphics, visualization, and optimization exploration. You can do this with JMP to look for local and global maximum or minimum points on the factor surface. Visually, see maximum peaks (or minimums) on plotted surfaces. Assess if you are at localized peaks or valleys, or are they are the global solution you seek.
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Response Surface Design
Min
Max
Sonic, America’s Drive-In“We are hiring, and growing!”
What determines good
new-hire candidates?
Exampleof DOE
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Sonic, America’s Drive-In“We are hiring, and growing!”
What determines good employees?Let’s consider the hiring process. Who should be hired based on initial information, and augmented in the future by performance reviews and other measurable factors?
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First Iteration:Use JMP/DOE Custom Design with a response factor of service times performance:I.e. for the last year of hiring, RATING = (weeks served) times (performance rating).Begin in Oklahoma City, and then in California. Propose the tests to the Sonic CEO.
Future Iterations:Use JMP/DOE Augment Design to add additional factors, to be determined, andadditional new-hire data as it becomes available expanding to additional states.
“We are hiring, and growing!”
What determines good employees?
Addratingslater.
Try a Customreduced test set.
The design of 12 testruns is a lot less thanthe 54 from before.
These 12 runs willcompete very wellwith the 54 runs ! They will be sufficientto begin iteration afterfine tuning your plansand statistical analysis.
These 12 test casesconstitute the newdesign.
Sonic, America’s Drive-In“We are hiring, and growing!”
What determines good employees?
Try other JMPDOE models.
What we have covered . . .
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Steps: Think, Design, Test, Analyze, Act! Improvement involves iterations (repeat) Custom Design starts your path . . . Consider specialized design platforms If possible, use full-factorial design As need, try other JMP/DOE platforms.
Employ the entire design theory
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Involve key people Determine the factors Start with Custom Design Analyze every step of the way Continual improvement is the goal Ever learn and expand knowledge
Enjoy the conference!
A poster paper by
Thanks for attention!
Charles Edwin [email protected]
@ShippAhoy (Twitter)
Kirk Paul [email protected]@sasNerd (Twitter)
Let’s talk in the hallway …
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Begin again
