QUOTE FOR THE DAY

Home computers are being called upon to perform many new functions, including the consumption of homework formerly eaten by the dog.

- Doug Larson-

The danger from computers is not that they will eventually get as smart as men, but we will meanwhile agree to meet them halfway.

-Bernard Avishai-

"You live and learn. At any rate, you live.”

- Douglas Adams-

MOST OF THE COMPOUNDS THAT MAKE UP FOSSIL FUELS ARE HYDROCARBONS - THAT IS, THEY CONTAIN MOSTLY CARBON AND HYDROGEN.

CARBON IS A UNIQUE ATOM IN THAT IT CAN BOND TO ITSELF TO FORM MILLIONS OF COMPOUNDS.

THE COMPOUNDS THAT MAKE UP FOSSIL FUELS WOULD BE OF THE TYPE:

PETROLEUM – FROM THE Greek petros (rock) and elaion (oil)

PETROLEUM ORIGIN IS PROBABALY FROM MARINE SEDIMENTS.

THE LOW LEVEL OF OXIDIZED HYDROCARBONS AND PRESENCE OF PORPHYRINS INDICATES IT WAS ACTED ON BY ANAEROBIC MICROORGANISMS AND THAT TEMPERATURES WERE MODERATE (LESS THAN 200O C).

PETROLEUM – FROM THE Greek petros (rock) and elaion (oil)

PETROLEUM ORIGIN IS PROBABALY FROM MARINE SEDIMENTS.

THE LOW LEVEL OF OXIDIZED HYDROCARBONS AND PRESENCE OF PORPHYRINS INDICATES IT WAS ACTED ON BY ANAEROBIC MICROORGANISMS AND THAT TEMPERATURES WERE MODERATE (LESS THAN 200O C).

FIRST COMMERCIAL PETROLEUM DEPOSIT WAS DISCOVERED IN 1859 NEAR TITUSVILLE, PA.

EDWARD DRAKE AND BILLY SMITH DRILLED A WELL 20 METERS DEEP.

THE FIRST REFINERY WAS IN THE SAME AREA – A SMALL DISTILLATION UNIT BUILT IN 1860.

KEROSINE BECAME AN IMPORTANT ILLUMINANT REPLACING COAL OIL.

SPINDLETOP OIL FIELD, BEAUMONT, TX - 1901

WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES

ESTIMATED AT 2000 BILLION BARRELS OF WHICH 630 BILLILON HAS BEEN USED LEAVING A RESERVE OF 1400 BILLION BARRELS

THE U.S. IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE HAD 250 BBO OF WHICH ABOUT 155 BBO HAS BEEN USED.

COUNTRY % OF REMAINING RESOURCE

US 2% LATIN AMERICA 10% EUROPE 4% FORMER USSR 12% AFRICA 7% ASIA AND OCEANIA 8% MIDDLE EAST 48% CANADA 7%

THE U.S. IMPORTS 12,269,000 BARRELS PER DAY.

THIS REPRESENTS 61.9% OF TOTAL DOMESTIC USE.

ALL RESOURCES ARE FINITE.

The Kingdom of Heaven runs on righteousness, but the Kingdom of Earth runs on OIL!

- Ernest Bevin-

ELEMENTAL COMPOSITION OF CRUDE OIL

COMPONENT Wt%

Carbon 83-87% Sulfur 0-3% Oxygen 0-0.5% Hydrogen 11-14% Nitrogen 0-1% Metals 0-0.2%

CRUDE OIL COMPOSITION

Fraction No. Carbons Boiling Range % Gases 1 to 4 <0o C 2% Gasoline 5-10 25-80o C 34% Kerosine 10-15 80-145o C 11% Diesel 13-18 96-160o C 21% Gas oil 16-25 160-340oC 20% Atmospheric Resid

>25 >3400 C 12%

crude oil type

Paraffin Base Crude Oils Contain little or no asphalt Contain varying amounts of wax Suitable for wax or base oil manufacture Napthene Base Crude Oils Contain little or no asphalt Contain little or no wax Suitable for specialty oil manufacture

Asphalt Base Crude Oils Residue primarily asphaltic High sulfur and nitrogen content Suitable for base oil manufacture Mixed Base Crude Oils Combinations of the above

CRUDE OIL PROCESSING

1. DESALTING 2. ATMOSPHERIC DISTILLATION 3. VACUUM DISTILLATION 4. DEASPHALTING 5. CATALYTIC CRACKING –

CONVERT HEAVY GAS OIL TO GASOLINE

6. REFORMING – CONVERT n-ALKANES TO BRANCHED

7. HYDROTREATING – TO REMOVE SULFUR, NITROGEN, AND METALS

8. DELAYED COKING – CONVERTS VERY HEAVY MATERIALS TO LIGHT MOLECULES AND COKE

A REFINERY AT NIGHT

Howstuffworks "How Oil Refining Works"

TYPICAL TRAY SIZE FROM REFINERY

STAR REFINERY, THAILAND

AN ATMOSPHERIC DISTILLATION COLUMN WOULD SEPARATE MATERIALS THAT BOILED UP TO ABOUT 800O F.

ABOVE THAT TEMPERATURE, MOLECULES WOULD START TO DECOMPOSE (CRACK).

ANY MATERIAL LEFT THAT DID NOT DISTILL (ATMOSPHERIC RESID) WOULD BE TAKEN TO A VACUUM STILL FOR FURTHER DISTILLATION.

THE MATERIAL THAT WOULD DISTILL HERE WOULD BE THE LUBRICANT BASE OIL STOCKS.

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PROCESSES IN A REFINERY THAT ARE USED TO CONVERT HEAVIER MOLECULES TO GASOLINE RANGE MATERIAL.

THERE ARE ALSO PROCESSES TO CONVERT STRAIGHT CHAIN HYDROCARBONS TO BRANCHED CHAIN HYDROCARBONS. THIS INCREASES THE OCTANE RATING OF THE GASOLINE.

THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY PREDICTS THAT WORLD OIL DEMAND WILL GROW BY 50 PERCENT BY 2025.

M. King Hubbert was an American geophysicist who came up with a way of predicting what oil production might look like over the long term given current productions and estimated future discoveries.

The production of a single well might look like the figure below:

By combining productions of a number of wells, one could come up with an overall production graph.

His predictions on the U.S production had the U.S. peaking in the early 1970’s.

Actual U.S. production peaked in 1970.

HUBBERT PEAK PREDICTIONS

Projected Date Prediction Source

2006-2007 Bakhitari

2007-2009 Simmons

After 2007 Skrebowski

Before 2009 Deffeyes

Before 2010 Goodstein

After 2010 World Energy Council

2016 EIA

2025 or later Shell

No visible peak Lynch

PEAKING MEANS THAT WE HAVE REACHED MAXIMUM OIL PRODUCTION.

THERE WILL STILL BE OIL LEFT, BUT RATE OF PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE WITH TIME.

EVEN THE MOST OPTOMISTIC HAS THE PEAK OCCURING BY 2025.

THE QUESTION IS NOT WHEN WE ARE GOING TO RUN OUT OF OIL, BUT WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO ABOUT IT.

THE COST OF ENERGY HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON EVERYTHING ELSE.

SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN GLOBAL RECESSIONS HAVE BEEN PRECEEDED BY SPIKES IN THE PRICE OF OIL.

IN MANY DEVELOPING NATIONS, IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR A FAMILY TO SPEND 70% OF ITS BUDGET ON FOOD. INFLATION COULD BE DAMAGING.

AMERICANS USE MORE ENERGY AND MORE PETROLEUM THAN ANYONE.

WITH LESS THAN 5% OF THE POPULATIN, WE BURN 25% OF THE WORLD’S PETROLEUM.

THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE IS TWICE AS ENERGY INTENSIVE AS THAT IN EUROPE AND JAPAN, AND ABOUT 10 TIMES THE GLOBAL AVERAGE.

THE DEVELOPING WORLD WANTS TO EMULATE OUR LIFESTYLE.

US PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION

THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION’S ENERGY POLICIES HAVE NEVER BEEN IN DOUBT. THE MAIN POINTS INCLUDE:

1. ENCOURAGING DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION WHERE POSSIBLE

2. SECURING OUR SUPPLY OF OVERSEAS OIL

3. SEARCH FOR ALTERNATIVE LIQUID HYDROCARBON FUELS

CONSERVATION AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY ARE NOT A PART OF NATIONAL POLICY.

IN A SPEECH IN TORONTO IN 2001, CHENEY SAID,

“CONSERVATION MIGHT BE A SIGN OF PERSONAL VIRTURE, BUT IT IS NOT A SUFFICIENT BASIS FOR A SOUND, COMPREHENSIVE ENERGY POLICY. THE BUSH ENERGY PLAN WILL RECOGNIZE THAT THE PRESENT CRISIS DOES NOT REPRESENT A FAILING OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.”

THERE IS A STRONG BELIEF AMONG MEMBERS OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION THAT ANY CHANGE IN THE STATUS QUO WILL UPSET THE ECONOMY AND THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP).

THE PETROLEUM INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BE PRESERVED.

ANY REGULATIONS ON GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS WILL DAMAGE THE GDP.

THIS IS NOT FROM A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING.

MANY IN THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION COME FROM THE ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORS.

THEY ALSO UNDERSTAND THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

WE HAVE MADE GREAT STRIDES IN THE IMPROVEMENTS IN ENERGY EFFICIENCIES OF HOME HEATING AND COOLING, LIGHTING, AND APPLIANCES.

WE HAVE SQUANDERED THOSE ENERGY SAVINGS BY BUILDING BIGGER HOUSES.

WE HAVE MADE GREAT STRIDES IN ENERGY EFFICIENCIES OF AUTOMOBILES.

WE HAVE SQUANDERED THOSE ENERGY SAVINGS BY BUILDING BIGGER AND MORE POWERFUL VEHICLES.

HOW DO WE GET READY FOR THE CHANGE?

1. CONSERVATION

2. IMPROVE VEHICLE EFFICIENCY - CURRENT TECHNOLOGY SHOULD ALLOW A 40% IMPROVEMENT IN FUEL ECONOMY

3. DEVELOP AN ALTERNATIVE LIQUID BRIDGE FUEL FOR TRANSPORTATION USE

4. DEVELOP A HYDROGEN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AND HYDROGEN FUEL CELL POWERED VEHICLES

PETROLEUM ALTERNATIVES:

1) COAL - ENOUGH TO LAST 300 YEARS - VERY DIRTY - HIGH CARBON CONTENT AND LOTS OF CO2

2) NATURAL GAS - POSSIBLE BRIDGE FUEL - LOWER CO2 THAN PETROLEUM, BUT STILL HIGH

3) TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE - HIGH CARBON CONTENT - ENERGY INTENSIVE TO EXTRACT

ALL OF THE ABOVE ADD CO2 TO THE AIR. THIS MEANS MORE GLOBAL WARMING.

ELECTRICAL GENERATION ALTERNATIVES

1. INVESTIGATE CARBON DIOXIDE SEQUESTERATION FOR COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS

2. DEVELOP NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS - FISSION AND FUSION

3. MORE TAX INCENTIVES FOR ALTERNATIVE SOURCES SUCH AS WIND AND SOLAR

DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS.