R E F O R T T RE SUME ED 021 192 NEW PERSPECTIVES ON MANPOWER PROBLEMS AND MEASURES. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, WASHINGTON, D.C. EDRS PRICE MF-$0.50 HC-$2.76 67P. VT 005 942 PUB DATE APR 68 DESCRIPTORS- *MANPOWER UTILIZATION, EMPLOYMENT PROBLEMS, *MEASUREMENT, RESEARCH PROBLEMS, INCOME, LABOR STANDARDS, SUBEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, WORK ENVIRONMENT, JOB SATISFACTION, EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES (JOBS), EQUAL EDUCATION, *MANPOWER NEEDS, EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS, LABOR FORCE, TWO CHIEF AIMS OF THIS CHAPTER ARE TO TAKE A BROAD NEW LOOK AT THE MAJOR PROBLEM AREAS OF CONCERN TO MANPOWER POLICY AND TO POINT THE WAY TOWARD MORE COMPREHENSIVE AND SENSITIVE MEASURES OF PROGRESS AND PROBLEMS IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE REDUCTION OF JOBLESSNESS AND UNDEREMPLOYMENT, SOME OF THE IMPROTANT AREAS OF MANPOWER CONCERN WHICH REQUIRE BETTER MEASUREMENT ARE (1) THE ADEQUACY OF WORKERS' EARNINGS, INCLUDING MINIMUM WAGE STANDARDS AND ANNUAL EARNINGS, (2) THE CONCEPT OF SUBEMPLOYMENT WHICH IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A SUMMARY MEASURE OF THE COMPOUNDED IMPACT OF BOTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND LOW EARNINGS ON THE SAME GROUP OF WORKERS, (3) PROVISIONS FOR INCOME MAINTENANCE WHEN WORKERS ARE INVOLUNTARYILY UNEMPLOYED, DISABLED, OR RETIRED, (4) THE QUALITY Of EMPLOYMENT, INCLUDING PHYSICAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF WORK, (5) THE EXTENT OF EQUALITY OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS, AND (6) THE SUCCESS IN MEETING THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS OF OUR ECONOMY AND SOCIETY, INCLUDING THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF CURRENT LABOR SHORTAGES AND MANPOER IMBALANCES, PROSPECTIVE MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS, AND THE CHANGES IN RATES OF TRAINING AND JOB MARKET MECHANISMS ESSENTIAL TO MEET MANPOWER DEMANDS. WITH WELL - DEVELOPED MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES, IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE, WITHIN A LIMITED AREA, TO PINPOINT PROBLEMS AS THEY EMERGE AND EVEN TO ACHIEVE SOME FORWARNING OF THEM FROM KNOWLEDGE OF HOW EVENTS AFFECT ONE ANOTHER. TO TEST THE VALIDITY AND UTILITY OF EXISTING MEASURES, TO EVOLVE MORE EFFECTIVE ONES, AND TO IDENTIFY AREAS WHERE NEW MEASURES ARE NEEDED WILL BE CONTINUING RESEARCH CHALLENGES IF A SYSTEM OF MANPOWER INDICATORS IS TO BECOME A FRUITFUL REALITY. THIS CHAPTER APPEARS IN "MANPOWER REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT AND REPORT ON MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS, RESOURCES, UTILIZATION, AND TRAINING" (1968) AVAILABLE AS VT 001 025. (ET)
Transcript
R E F O R T T RE SUMEED 021 192NEW PERSPECTIVES ON MANPOWER PROBLEMS AND MEASURES.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, WASHINGTON, D.C.
TWO CHIEF AIMS OF THIS CHAPTER ARE TO TAKE A BROAD NEWLOOK AT THE MAJOR PROBLEM AREAS OF CONCERN TO MANPOWER POLICYAND TO POINT THE WAY TOWARD MORE COMPREHENSIVE AND SENSITIVEMEASURES OF PROGRESS AND PROBLEMS IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITIONTO THE REDUCTION OF JOBLESSNESS AND UNDEREMPLOYMENT, SOME OFTHE IMPROTANT AREAS OF MANPOWER CONCERN WHICH REQUIRE BETTERMEASUREMENT ARE (1) THE ADEQUACY OF WORKERS' EARNINGS,INCLUDING MINIMUM WAGE STANDARDS AND ANNUAL EARNINGS, (2) THECONCEPT OF SUBEMPLOYMENT WHICH IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE ASUMMARY MEASURE OF THE COMPOUNDED IMPACT OF BOTH UNEMPLOYMENTAND LOW EARNINGS ON THE SAME GROUP OF WORKERS, (3) PROVISIONSFOR INCOME MAINTENANCE WHEN WORKERS ARE INVOLUNTARYILYUNEMPLOYED, DISABLED, OR RETIRED, (4) THE QUALITY OfEMPLOYMENT, INCLUDING PHYSICAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, AND SOCIALASPECTS OF WORK, (5) THE EXTENT OF EQUALITY OF ECONOMIC ANDSOCIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS, AND (6)THE SUCCESS IN MEETING THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS OF OURECONOMY AND SOCIETY, INCLUDING THE EXTENT AND NATURE OFCURRENT LABOR SHORTAGES AND MANPOER IMBALANCES, PROSPECTIVEMANPOWER REQUIREMENTS, AND THE CHANGES IN RATES OF TRAININGAND JOB MARKET MECHANISMS ESSENTIAL TO MEET MANPOWER DEMANDS.WITH WELL - DEVELOPED MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES, IT SHOULD BEPOSSIBLE, WITHIN A LIMITED AREA, TO PINPOINT PROBLEMS AS THEYEMERGE AND EVEN TO ACHIEVE SOME FORWARNING OF THEM FROMKNOWLEDGE OF HOW EVENTS AFFECT ONE ANOTHER. TO TEST THEVALIDITY AND UTILITY OF EXISTING MEASURES, TO EVOLVE MOREEFFECTIVE ONES, AND TO IDENTIFY AREAS WHERE NEW MEASURES ARENEEDED WILL BE CONTINUING RESEARCH CHALLENGES IF A SYSTEM OFMANPOWER INDICATORS IS TO BECOME A FRUITFUL REALITY. THISCHAPTER APPEARS IN "MANPOWER REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT ANDREPORT ON MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS, RESOURCES, UTILIZATION, ANDTRAINING" (1968) AVAILABLE AS VT 001 025. (ET)
Manpower Message of the President and Report on Manpower Requirements, Resources,r Utilization, and Training. 1968.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION & WELFARE
OFFICE OF EDUCATION
THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE
PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGINATING IT POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS
STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDUCATION
POSITION OR POLICY.
2
NEW PERSPECTIVES
ON MANPOWER
PROBLEMS AND MEASURES
NEW PERSPECTIVES ON
MANPOWER PROBLEMS AND MEASURES
This chapter has two chief aimsto take 1, broadnew look at the major problem areas of comem tomanpower policy and to point the way hwardmore comprehensive and sensitive measures ofprogress and problems in these areas.
The achievement of high levels of employmentwas made a national objective more than two dec-ades ago, by the Employment Act of 1946. But; itis little more than 5 years since this country under-took an active manpower policy calling for direct,affirmative action to enable the jobless and under-employed to achieve satisfactory employment and,at the same time, to meet employers' needs forworkers. Even in these few years it has become ap-parent that manpower policy must be a broadlyconceived, dynamic instrumentconcerned with awide range of shifting and emerging problemsand that assessment of progress in manpower prob-lem areas is therefore a highly complex undertak-ing, requiring a variety of evolving measures andtechniques.
When the first Manpower Report was issued in1963, the overall rate of unemployment was per-sistently high (51 percent that year, on the aver-age).. Because of this, the goal of primary con-cern was necessarily to achieve a more rapid rateof economic and employment growththrough.economic and fiscal measures, coupled with train-ing and other manpower measures to overcome thedislocations of workers brought about by tech-nological and other change.
The great expansion in employment and reduc-tion in unemployment achieved during the past 5years testify to the success of these efforts. But theoverall employment gains have also brought into
sharper focus the plight of those by-passed by thegeneral prosperity.
As the President said in his message on Man-power delivered to the Congress in January :
The question for our day is this: In an economy capableof sustaining high employment, how can we assure everyAmerican who is willing to work the right to earn aliving?
The President then outlined the programs thatare being undertaken to enable the hard-core un-employed to enter productive employment (asfurther discussed in the chapter on New Develop-ments in Manpower Programs later in this report) .These programs, and related efforts to meet thetraining and employment needs of disadvantagedworkers with long periods of joblessness, now havetop priority among the Nation's manpower pro-grams. Accordingly, if statistics on unemploy-ment and other manpower measures are to serveti,s indicators of our most urgent present problems,they must now focus on the groups with extendedlit employmenthow many, who and where theyarc, and what can be gleaned as to the nature oftheir problems.
But manpower policy is and must be concernedwith more than long-term unemployment. Thechronically underemployedthose able to get onlypart-time jobs or irregular workare likely to beworse of than many workers with even fairly ex-tended priods of joblessness. And, people so dis-couraged or alienated that they are not even look-ing for work may well be in the worst situmtionof all. Both of these groups have a high claim forattention in manpower programs and consequentlyin factfind:hig on current manpower preblems.
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The horizons of concern in manpower policy aremuch wider than this, however : they must takeaccount of the many-sided significance of work inour economy and society. Work is the generallyaccepted basis for success and social status, as wellas earning a living. The kind of job a worker hasand the conditions of his employment greatlyaffect his and his family's everyday life. And thecontribution workers make to the national outputof goods and services is a major determinant ofeconomic growth and advances in living standardsfor the American people.
Thus, a number of broad manpower objectivesor problem areas can be identified, in addition tothe reduction of joblessness and underemploy-ment. The adequacy of workers' earnings is an areaof obvious importance, demanding considerationfrom many anglesamong them, how wages com-pare with accepted minimum standards, how manyworkers still have earnings beloiv the poverty line,and whether the trend of earnings provides a ris-ing standard of living or at least keeps up withliving costs.
Adequate provision for income maintenancewhen workers are involuntarily unemployed, dis-abled, or retired is also an important area. Whena worker lacks adequate income protection, a pro-tracted spell of unemployment, a serious accidentor illness, or retirement may force not only theworker but also his dependents into poverty.
The quality of employmentphysically, psy-chologically, and sociallyis another area thathas a crucial relation to worker well-being, andwith which manpower policy must be concerned.The same is true of equality of opportunity foreducation and training, employment, and earnings.
Widening the opportunities and options open toworkers and potential workers is still another im-pottant and very broad manpower objective,closely related to the quest for equality of oppor-tunity. Pathways to this objective are manyin-cluding giving people the opportunity to maximizetheir abilities through education and training, re-moving discriminatory and other barriers to mo-bility and freedom of job choice, and providingmore opportunities for meaningful participationin our economy and society (on a volunteer as wellas a paid basis and for youth and The old, as wellas for people in the middle age groups).
In addition to these objectives, which all beardirectly on the welfare of workers and their de-pendents, manpower policy is concerned with
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meeting the manpower requirements of our econ-omy and society. Here, the questions in need ofassessment include the extent and nature of cur-rent labor shortages and manpower imbalances,prospective manpower requirements, and thechanges in rates of training and job market mech-anisms essential to meet manpower demands.
This chapter explores the critical dimensions ofcurrent problems and recent progress in most ofthese major areas of manpower concern, as indi-cated by the presently available data. It also makesclear the data gaps and inadequacies that havehampered this assessment and points to neededimprovements in factfinding and analysis.
It is fortunate that, in working toward theseinformational advances, we can build on a systemof manpower statistics which is already one ofthe most advanced in the world. But manpowerproblems are constantly shifting, and realizationof their complexity and of the variety of policiesand action programs required to meet them hasincreased. The related data-collection programsand techniques of assessment should be equallydynamic. One of the chief purposes of this chapteris to point the way in this direction.
Several important areas of manpower concerncould not be covered in this initial effortfor ex-ample, worker mobility, development of skills andother abilities, and many aspects of working con-ditions. There is need to move ahead in meetinginformational deficiencies in these areas, as wellas those discussed below. Furthermore, the devel-opment of a comprehensive set of manpower in-dicators and their use in analyzingor evenultimately in predictingmanpower problems andprogram needs should be the long-run goal, assuggested in the concluding section of the chapter.
The framework developed in the chapter willprovide a basis for planning the conceptual analy-sis, factfinding, and research essential to theseobjectives. The Department of Labor will under-take leadership in this planning, in consulta-tion with other governmental and private organ-izations concerned with manpower problems andtheir measurement.
Private research has already made indispensablecontributions in many areas. Continued, majorcontributions from many individuals and privateresearch organizations as well as Governmentagencies will be essential to meet the needs andrealize the potentials for increased knowledge ofmanpower problems here outlined.
Joblessness and Underemployment
How many American workers have had pro-longed periods of unemployment in the last fewyears of general economic prosperity ? For howmany is unemployment a recurrent or omnipresentthreat ? And how many others are chronicallyunderemployed ? Who and where are these work-ers ? What progress are we making in reducingtheir numbers and in mitigating the problems ofthose most disadvantaged?
To begin developing answers to questions suchas these, it is necessary to go behind the overallcounts and average rates of unemployment andlook at the diverse situations of the differentgroups of unemployed individuals. Unemployedworkers differ not only in the length of time theyare out of work but also in their financial needs andresponsibilities, work experience, place of resi-dence, education and skills, and other personal at-tributes which greatly influence their chances ofemployment.
That unemployment can have devastating con-sequences is very plain in the case, for example, oflaid-off workers who are unable to find new jobsfor many weeks or months, especially those withfamilies to support and no savings to draw upon;or of unskilled workers, particularly in urbanslums, who can get only brief, temporary jobs,separated by repeated periods of unemployment.On the other hand, for young people who have justfinished school and are looking for their first jobs,for women seeking to reenter the labor force, andfor workers who quit jobs voluntarily in search ofbetter ones, unemployment may be a transitionalexperience with relatively little impact on theireconomic and social situation.
Workers who experience prolonged unemploy-mentand often need. training and other help inobtaining jobsare the chief focus of concern inmanpower programs and in indicators of workerwell-being. There are also two other groups whomust be consideredpeople who are working parttime or below their skill level, and those who arejobless and want work but are not looking for jobsbecause they believe none are available to them orbecause of a variety of remediable difficulties. Sincethey are not seeking work, people in this situationare not counted as unemployed. But they are likely
to be among the most disadvantaged in thecountry.
Two sets of statistics from the Current Popula-tion Survey can be drawn upon as indicators of theimpact of joblessness and underemployment. TheCPS data most widely quoted in the press are themonthly estimates of unemployment, labor forceparticipation, and other relevant measures formany different population groups. Annual aver-ages of these monthly data indicate, for example,how many and what proportion of workers wereunemployed in an average week.
The Current Population Survey is also thesource of a different set of measures relating toworkers' employment and unemployment experi-ence throughout the calendar year. This work-experience information is collected yearly. It pro-vides estimates of the total number unemployed foras long as a week at any time during the year, notmerely the number unemployed in a single week.And it shows the total number of weeks of unem-ployment experienced by workers during the year,either continuously or in different spells, whereasthe monthly data on duration of unemploymentshow only the number of weeks workers were con-tinuously unemployed up to the time of the survey.
Both sets of data provide important insights intothe problems of unemployment and underemploy-ment, and both are drawn upon in the followingdiscussion. The monthly estimates of unemploy-ment have the great advantage of currency andprovide valuable items of information not nowavailable from the work-experience data. Never-theless, these latter data are those which havebeen found most valuable and have been relied. onmost heavily in this chapter.
The average monthly unemployment rates donot tell the full story of the impact of unemploy-ment on people. Much more meaningful are thework-experience data on the numbers of workerswith many weeks or months of joblessness duringthe year. These data make plain why the countryneeds large-scale training and other antipovertyprograms aimed at equipping the hard-coreunemployed for productive work and aiding theirjob adjustment.
17
UNEMPLOYMENT
Over 11 million 1 American workers were job-less and looking for work at some time duringthe prosperous year 1966. This was almost fourtimes the average number (2.9 million) unem-ployed in any one week of the year.2 The totalnumber out of work during 1967 was probablysomewhat higher. Great progress in reducing un-employment has been made, however, since 1961,when the current economic upturn began. Duringthat recession year, about 15 million workers hadperiods of unemployment.
The period without work was short (1 to 4weeks) for over 45 percent of the workers unem-ployed in 1966. Presumably, unemployment formany of them was due largely to voluntary jobchanges, some delay in finding work upon entryor reentry into the labor force, and the usual sea-sonal layoffs. Many secured jobs without out-side help. And for those who sought or neededassistance through manpower programs, this helpwas limited in most cases to job placement services.
The 3.4 million workers with 5 to 14 weeks ofunemployment in 1966 may be regarded as an "inbetween" group. For many of these workersaswell as for those with still briefer periods withoutworkunemployment was a transitional experi-ence, often cushioned to some extent by unemploy-ment insurance and other benefits. But this groupundoubtedly included many workers for whomunemployment of 14 weeks, or even 5 weeks, hadserious financial consequences.
Joblessness had hard and unequivocal impli-cations, however, for the 2.7 million workers whowere out of work for 15 or more weeks in 1966over a fourth of the year. More than 1 million ofthese workersin cities, towns, and rural areasacross the countryspent half or more of 1966jobless and looking for work.
1 The number of persons who were unemployed for at least 1week during the year includes persons who looked for work butdid not work during the year.
As noted in this report, the definition of unemployment usedin the monthly estimates of unemployment was changed some-what in 1907. A discussion of the principal changes appears inthe chapter on Trends in Employment and Unemployment. Databased on the monthly estimates used in the present chapter relateto 1964 anti 1900 and do not reflect the new definitions. In thoseyears the m employed included those persons who did not work atall during the survey week and were looking for work. Alsoincluded as unemployed wire those who did not work at all dur-ing the survey week and (1) who were waiting either to be calledback to a job from which they had been laid off or to report to anew wage or salary job scheduled to start within the following 30days (and were not in school during the survey week), or (2)
18
These data on the weeks of unemployment work-ers experienced throughout the year provide byfar the best picture of the impact of joblessness onindividuals, and of the magnitude of the groupsmost subject to unemployment and most likely toneed training or other manpower services. This ismade plain when one compares the figures citedabove with those on continuous duration of un-employment from the monthly labor force surveys.About four times as many workers had 5 or moreweeks without work during 1966 as is suggestedby the monthly data. For the number out of work15 to 26 weeks, the corresponding ratio was almost54, to 1.
Any complacency as to the limited impact ofextended unemployment among men in the centralage groups, who are generally the most employ-able and have the heaviest family responsibilities,should be ended by these data. Close to 1.3 millionmen aged 25 to 44 had 5 or more weeks of unem-ployment during 1966, almost six times the number(226,000) shown by the monthly surveys. (Seetable 1.) For men of this age group out of work15 to 26 weeks, the differential between the twoestimates was even greater (more than sevenfold-342,000, compared with 48,000). Clearly, the num-ber of men of prime working age who are severelyaffected by joblessness is much higher than is indi-cated by the monthly unemployment data. And,to a lesser degree, the same is true for women.
With respect to the groups most affected by un-employmentthe young, the poorly educated, theunskilled, older workers, and minority groupsthe unemployment data based on experience dur-ing the year as a whole tell roughly the same com-parative story as do the monthly estimates. How-ever, the incidence of ex. Added unemployment isshown to be greater in all groups than is suggestedby the monthly figures for these groups (which are
who would have been looking for work except that they weretemporarily ill or believed no work was available in their line ofwork or in the community.
The definition of unemployment used in the survey of workexperience during a year is similar to that used in the monthlyestimates prior to 1907, although the data arc derived somewhatdifferently. All persons who worked from 1 to 49 weeks duringthe year are classified according to the reason describing howthey spent most of the weeks in which they did not work. Non-work activities are categorized as unemployment or layoff from ajob, illness or disability (not including paid sick leave), takingcare of home or family, going to school, and other activities. Asingle week during which a person did not work was assigned toonly one category, following a system that assigned first priorityto unemployment or layoff and otherwise proceeded in the orderlisted. Persons without work experience in 1900 are classifiedaccording to their main reason for not working, based uponreplies to a specific question. The reasons enumerated are roughlythe same as the categories used for part-year workers.
A
TABLE 1. RATIO OF UNEMPLOYMENT AS MEASURED BY WORK-EXPERIENCE SURVEY TO AVERAGE OFMONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES, BY DURATION CATEGORY) 1966
Age
Men Women
Total, 5weeks
and over
5 to 14weeks
15 to 26weeks
27 weeksor more
Total, 5weeks
and over
5 to 14weeks
15 to 26weeks
27 weeksor more
Total, 16 years and over 4.6 4.6 5.7 3.1 3.5 2.9 4.8 4.4
16 and 17 years 1.8 1.3 2.1 7.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.318 and 19 years 3.8 3.3 5.1 4.3 2.7 2.2 4.6 2.920 to 24 years 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.8 4.2 3.3 7.1 5.725 to 34 years 5.8 6.6 6.9 2.4 3.7 3. 1 4.7 5.335 to 44 years 5.7 6.4 7.3 2.5 4.1 3.7 4.5 4.645 to 64 years 4.6 5.2 6.3 2.5 4.5 3.7 6.1 5.165 years and over 2.8 2. 1 3.5 3.1
NOTE: See footnote 2, p.18, for definitions of these measures.
discussed at length in the chapter on Trends inEmployment and Unemployment).
The widely noted 2-to-1 ratio in the extent ofunemployment between nonwhite and white work-ers is borne out once more by these data. About 12percent of all nonwhite workers had 5 weeks ormore of unemployment in 1966, compared with 6percent of all white workers. Most seriously af-fected were the nonwhites who were unskilledlaborers-1 out of every 5 was unemployed for 5or more weeks during 1966. (See table 2.)
The major achievements of the past 5 years inreducing unemployment-particularly long-termunemployment-must not be lost sight of, how-ever. Despite very large additions to the work forcebetween 1961 and 1066, the proportion of workersunemployed for 5 or more weeks of the year wascut nearly in half (from 11.6 to 6.4 percent). (Seetable 3.) The general expansion in employment-aided by training and other programs focused onworkers with persistent difficulty in finding jobs-brought an even sharper drop in the proportion ofworkers unemployed 15 weeks or more (from 6.3percent in 1961 to 2.8 percent in 1966). The im-provement was sharpest in the proportion unem-ployed 27 weeks or more (which fell from 2.8 to Ipercent). Both white and nonwhite workers bene-fited from this reduction in extended unemploy-ment.
The proportion of workers experiencing
repeated spells of joblessness has also dropped sig-nificantly. Whereas in 1961, 62 percent of thework force had two or more periods of unemploy-ment during the year, by 1966 the figure hadfallen to 4 percent. And the proportion of workersreporting at least three spells of unemploymentdecreased nearly as much (from 3.3 to 2.3 percent).
Nevertheless, the proportion of workers withrepeated spells of unemployment did not declineas much, in relative terms, as the overall propor-tion of workers with many weeks of joblessness.(See chart 1.) This statistical finding has botheconomic and policy significance. The improve-ment in economic conditions, reinforced by man-power programs, has been particularly effectivein reducing the number of workers continuouslyunemployed for long periods; it has, for example,made it much easier for displaced workers to findnew jobs. But apparently there has been less prog-ress in reducing irregular or casual employmentof unskilled workers or, as yet, in mitigatingseasonal layoffs.
Most workers who experience extended unem-ployment are out of work two or more timesduring the year. Of the men out of work 15 ormore weeks in 1966, 7 out of every 10 were unem-ployed at least twice during the year. Of thosewith 27 weeks or more of unemployment, alsoout of 10 had at least two spells of unemployment,and 4 out of every 10 had three or more spells.
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CHART 1
Proportion of workers with extendedunemployment has declined sharply...
proportion with repeated spells ofunemployment has dropped much less.
Weeks of unemployment
Percent of annual work force25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0
White
1961 1966
En 5 to 14 weeks
111115 to 26 weeks
Is 27 weeks or more
Nonwhite
1461 1966
Spells of unemployment
Percent of annual work force5.0
10.0
5.0
1=1 2 spells
1111 3 or more spells
White
1961 1966Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
Nonwhite
1961 1966
These findings underline the need for enlargedefforts to enable the chronically unemployed toqualify for and obtain jobs that promise continuityof employment. There is also a need to exploreways of helping these workers to keep the jobsthuy get.
UNDEREMPLOYMENT
Unemployment is but one formalbeit the mostextremeof underutilization of workers. Intheory at least, any worker who is functioning atless than his full productive potential may be re-
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garded as underutilized. And in this sense, thereare probably very few people who are not under-utilized to some extent. Full realization of every-one's maximum potential is an ultimate goal of ourdemocracy, toward which all manpower develop-ment efforts are directed. However, a more limitedand immediate target is essential to both the de-velopment of manpower programs and the assess-ment of current manpower problems. For presentpurposes, it is sufficient to consider two types ofunderemployment.3
The first is part-time employment of workers de-siring full-time jobs, which can be thought of alsoas part-time unemployment. This is the most easilymeasurable form of underemployment.
TV orkers with gobs below their educational orskill level are another significant group of under-employed. Such underemployed workers include,for example, college graduates who have to takerelatively low-skilled jobs because of a shortage ofsuitable employment opportunities or because ofdiscriminatory hiring practices. The laid-offminers who are working as subsistence farmersprovide another example. However, the definitionand measurement of this group involve difficulttheoretical and practical problems. Much furtherwork will be required before the numbers andkinds of workers involved in this waste of skillscan be dethrmined.4
With respect to part-time employment, there arethe same two basic sources of data as on unem-ployment. The monthly labor force surveys yieldestimates of the numbers working less than 35hours in a specified week either voluntarily or foreconomic reasons, together with a wealth of relatedinformation. Relevant data from the annual work-experience surveys are much more meager, butprovide estimates of the numbers of workers em-ployed only part time in the majority of weekswhen they had any work during the year.
About 2 million workers were on part time foreconomic reasons in an average week of 1966. Thecurtailment in employment and earnings opportu-nity for film workers was sizable. On the average,they were lac to get only about 20 hours work per
a Part-year employment of people who desire year-round workbut are subject to intermittent or seasonal spells of joblessness Issometimes regarded as a third category of underutilization. Ttthe approach used here, however, thege people are counted withthe unemployed.
'Ono possible approach to measurement of the group 19 by wayOf the occupational imbalances between whites and nonwhites atcomparable levels of education. (See 1907 Manpower Report,p. M.)
TABLE 2. PERCENT OF PERSONS WITH WORK EXPERIENCE WHO HAD SPECIFIED NUMBERS OF WEEKSAND SPELLS OF UNEMPLOYMENT, BY COLOR AND OCCUPATION, 19661
Color and occupation 5 weeksor more
15 weeksor more
27 weeksor more
2 spellsor more
3 spellsor more
WHITE
Total 5.7 2.4 0.8 3.5 1.9Professional and technical workers 2. 1 .7 .3 .9 .5Farmers and farm managers .,
1 Excludes persons who looked for work but who did not work in NMThe rates would be !somewhat higher it they were included.
week. A bare majority of these workers were usu-ally employed full time but were temporarily onpart time, most often because of slack work. How-ever, nearly a million were usually able to obtainonly part-time work, for reasons shown by thefollowing figures :
.Reasons for part-time work
Number of workers on part timefor economic reasons, 1960
NOTE: Detail may not add to totals duo to rounding.
93.459 0 - 59 - 4
NOTE: Percent not shown whore base is less than 100,000.
Most of the workers who normally can get onlypart-time work are in trade and service industries,including household employment. The majorityare women. Among the part-time workers whousually work full time, however, the majority aremen, and more of them are in manufacturing thanin any other major industry group.°
Nonwhite workers are disproportionately af-fected by part-time employment, as by total un-employment. They are often entrapped in chronicpart-time work, mainly in service jobs, as is indi-cated by the following 1966 figures for workers innonagricultural industries :
5 For more information on part-time workers, see app. tablesA-21, A-22, and A-23.
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Work schedule
On full-time schedulesOn part-time for economic reasons :
Usually worked full timeUsually worked part time
Percent of workerswho were nonwhite
10.2
18.432.6
To arrive at a satisfactory indicator of employ-ment disadvantage, it is essential to consider theimpact of partial unemployment suggested bythese figures, as well as total unemployment. Un-fortunately, the data on part-time employment inan average week cannot be combined with the evenmore crucial estimates of the numbers unem-ployed for more than a specified number of weeksout of the year. The two sets of figures are notcomparable and could overlap to a serious extent.
A very rough estimate was arrived at by relat-ing the two sets of data in different, logical ways.This estimate relates to people underemployed in1966, in the sense that they usually worked parttime but wanted full-time employment and hadnot had a substantial amount of unemploymentduring the year (5 or more weeks). It appears thatthe number of underemployed workers, as thus de-fined, was probably in the neighborhood of 1 to11/2 million.
By definition, the underemployed are a groupwith limited work opportunity and consequentlycurtailed income. In all probability, many of theworkers included are living in poverty. The widerange of uncertainty as to the size and characterof this group is, thus, a major obstacle in assessingthe extent of employment hardship. It is one whichshould be overcome through additional informa-tion (as outlined in the later discussion of infor-mational needs).
PEOPLE NOT LOOKING FOR WORKWHO WANT JOBS
Many people who are neither working nor seek .ing work want and need jobs. Evidence to this ef-fect has accumulated in recent years. For example:
The proportion of men below normal retire-ment age who are out of the work force hasbeen rising, especially among nonwhites.
-A. high proportion of youth in lump areaswho have dropped out of school are neitherworking nor seeking work.
TABLE 3. PERCENT OF PERSONS WITH WORK EXPERIENCE WHO }IAD SPECIFIED NUMBERS OF WEEKSAND SPELLS OF UNEMPLOYMENT) BY SEX AND AGE, 1961 and 1966 1
Sex and age
1061 2 1066
5 weeksor more
15 weeksor more
27 weeksor more
2 spellsor more
3 spellsor more
5 weeksor more
15 weeksor more
27 weeksor more
2 spellsor more
3 spellsor more
130th sexes, total. 11.6 6.3 I 2.8 I 6.2 I 3.3 6.4 2.8 I 1.0 4.0 2.3
Men, 16 years and over.. 13.2 7.0 2.0 7.2 4.0 6.7 2.8 1.0 4.4 2.716 and 17 years-- 7.7 3.7 2.1 4.6 2.1 0.0 4.5 2.2 6.1 4.018 to 24 years..._.. 22.4 11.3 5.0 12.7 6.1 10.4 4.2 1.3 7.3 4.325 to 44 years....._ 13.6 7.0 2.6 7.4 4.3 6.1 2.2 .6 3.0 2.345 to 64 years...._ 11.3 6.4 2.7' 0.2 3.6 5.7 2.8 1.0 3.7 2.465 years and over-_ 6.8 4.6 2.3 4.0 2.9 4.2 2.0 1.5 3.0 1.0
I Excludes persons who looked for work but who did not work. The rateswould be somewhat higher if they were included.
22
2 Data for 14- and 15-yeavolds ore included in the 16. and 17yeavold groupsand in the totals.
NOTE: Percent not shown where base Is loss than 100,000.
A
Persons with limited education are morelikely to be out of the labor force than thosewith more education.A large number of older workersinclud-ing many with retirement benefitsboth needand wish to continue in paid employment.Many women who want to work, either tosupport themselves and their families or tosupplement their husband's income, reportthat they cannot do go for lack of child-carefacilities.Illness and disability prevent many personsfrom working in physically demanding occu-pations and sometimes keep them from work-ing at any job. Long-term disabilities alsotend to discourage persons from even lookingfor work.
To get more definite information on how manypeople not in the labor force want to work and thereasons why they are not seeking jobs, the Depart-ment of Labor recently made a series of specialstudies. The most comprehensive of these studiesshowed that, in September 1966,6 5.3 million menand women-1 out of every 10 of those outside
For a full report on the findings of this survey, see Robert L.Stein, "Reasons for Nonparticipation in the Labor Force,"Monthly Labor Review, July 1967, pp. 22-27, reprinted as SpecialLabor Force Report No. 86.
the labor forcewanted a job. The other 9 out of10 said they did not desire a regular job. However,the information obtained from the latter groupdid not permit probing into the conditions underwhich they might consider working nor into theirpossible need for additional income.
When those desiring work were asked why theywere not looking for jobs, the reasons most oftencited were ill health, school attendance, familyresponsibilities, or belief that they could not findjobs. (See table 4.) Presumably, the impedimentsto jobs could be overcome for many of these peo-ple by better health care, arrangements for childcare, school-work programs, referral to suitablejobs, and other services.
The 3/4 million peopleover 250,000 men andnearly 500,000 womenwho were not looking forwork because they believed it would be impossibleto find any were the group of probably greatestconcern from the viewpoint of manpower policy.Presumably many had given up the search forwork after fruitless and discouraging job-findingefforts. In addition, nearly as large a number ofwomen cited inability to arrange for child care asthe specific reason why they were not looking forjobs.
It is also significant that close to 400,000 of thegroup not looking for work because of ill health
TABLE 4. PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE WHO WANTED A REGULAR JOB, BY REASON FOR NOTLOOKING FOR WORK) SEPTEMBER 1966
[Numbers in thousands]
Reason
Men Women
Number Percentdistribution
Number Percentdistribution
Total 1, 641 100. 0 3, 651 100. 0
Believes it would be impossible to find work 266 16. 2 488 13. 4Ill health, physical disability 480 29. 3 598 16. 4In school s- 706 43. 0 536 14. 7Family responsibilities 1, 080 29. 6Inability to arrange child care 435 11. 9Miscellaneous personal reasons 2 144 8. 8 290 7.9Expects to be working or seeking work shortly 44 2.7 226 6. 2
'Includes employers think too old (or too young); couldn't find or did notbelieve any job (or any suitable job) was available; lacks skill, experience,education, or training; no transportation; racial discrimination; languagedifficulties; and pay too low.
2 Includes old age or retirement, moving, entering or leaving Armed Forces,death in family, planning to go back to school, and no need to work at presenttime.
NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
23
or physical or mental disabilities said they wouldtake part-time or light work if it were available,or said they would seek work when their healthimproved. However, it is not possible on the basisof the survey data to distinguish clearly betweenpeople who could be helped to enter employ-ment and those with serious and uncorrectablehandicaps.
Altogether, these data represent a major con-tribution to knowledge of the people not currentlyin the labor force who are potential workers. Butthe number that should be counted as underutilizedis still much in doubt.
The gap in the present effort to develop indica-tors of employment hardship is not as great asmight be inferred, however. Many of the 5.3 mil-lion people who wanted work but were not lookingfor it in a particular week of September 1966 hadprobably sought jobs earlier in the year and thenstopped lookingbecause of discouragement, in-creasing ill health, return to school, or other rea-sons.? If they actually looked for jobs during 1966,they have, of course, been counted among the un-employed in the figures presented earlier.
Nevertheless, this is still an area of unfortunatedoubt and incompleteness in the data on the Na-tion's underemployed people. It is an area wherefurther factfinding and exploration are muchneeded.
INFORMATIONAL NEEDS
Geographic Concentrations of Joblessness andUnderemployment
The concentration of unemployment and under-employment in urban slums and impoverishedrural areasthe places where these problems areknown to be most criticalhave not been discussedin this chapter. Though plans are far advanced fora new program of studies on employment and un-employment problems in urban slum areas, to belaunched by the Department of Labor in 1968, theavailable statistical information for such areas isstill limited, in the main, to a few special surveysconducted in 1966 and reported on in last year's
7 The total number of people in the civilian work force at anytime during 1966 was about 11 million larger than the numberin the labor force in September. This difference in numbers wascertainly accounted for in part by people not counted as workersin September, but still desiring jobs at that time.
24
Manpower .Report.8 The following chapter on Bar-riers to Employment of the Disadvantaged sum-marizes some of the key findings as to the extentof joblessness and underemployment among slumresidents.
The more extensive series of surveys, now beingdeveloped for slum. areas, will provide regular in-formation on employment and related problems inthese areas. They will be designed to shed lightupon the special employment-connected problemsof urban slums and to measure their seriousnessand extent. Special efforts will be made to increaseunderstanding of the motivation of slum residentswith respect to work and job hunting, training andeducation, and of the ways in which people in theslums survive economically. The surveys will behighly flexible and will test various approachesaimed at providing new insights into these intri-cate problems. The findings should provide im-proved guidelines for manpower programs andpolicies tailored to the needs of slum residents.
Intensive efforts will also be made in these sur-veys to obtain information on the characteristicsof persons missed in censuses or other householdsurveys. In the past few years, much attention hasbeen paid to the undercount of the population incensus surveys. This undercount is highest (15 to20 percent) for young nonwhite men, among whomrates of unemployment and underemployment arealso extremely high. Limited data suggest that themissed population is typically of a lower socio-economic group than the population counted. Fur-thermore, a large proportion of the uncountedpopulation probably lives in urban slums, wherecensus taking is particularly difficult. For thesereasons, the new surveys will make special effortsto reach persons who might be missed in regularcensus surveys.
Strengthening of Annual Work-Experience Data
Information on unemployment throughout theyear has great potential value as a measure of theneed for manpower policies and programs and aguide in their development. However, the presentdata have some serious shortcomings. Furtherwork along the following lines would be useful,assuming that it proves to be technically feasibleand resources permit its implementation.
8 See 1967 Manpower Report, p. 73 ff.
4
4
1. In order to have a current measure of annualunemployment, procedures should be developed tomake the work-experience survey results avail-able more promptly, and possibly to collect andpublish these data quarterly.
2. Because involuntary part-time employmentis a serious source of underemployment, effortsshould be made to measure the impact on workersof part-time employment for economic reasonsduring the year as a whole. Information is needednot only on the total numbers of workers affected,but also on the extent of reduction in their work-ing hours and on the duration and recurrence oftheir involuntary part-time employment.
3. Special cross tabulations of work-experiencedata with monthly labor force data could shedmore light upon the reasons why persons are un-employed or not in the work force.
4. Information on the number of persons wholook for a jobpresumably a better job, or at least
a different onewhile they are employed wouldhelp to guide placement and training programs.No information is now available on this point.
5. Information on the duration of the longestspell of unemployment experienced by workers un-employed at any time during the year would helpin assessing the significance and incidence of long-duration unemployment.
6. As a measure of the total need for job-findingefforts and of programs to help workers hold jobs,more information should be developed on spells ofunemployment, cross classified by the total num-ber of weeks of unemployment workers had dur-ing the year and by various personal characteris-tics.
7. Although inadequate training and educationare clearly related to the incidence of unemploy-ment, further investigation is needed to indicatethe effects of these factors on the extent of unem-ployment throughout the year.
25
Adequacy of Workers' Earnings
The dramatic rise in the average earnings ofAmerican workers is one of this country's proudachievements. There is general recognition thatworkers' earnings must, at minimum, keep pacewith living costs and that national gains in pro-ductivity should be reflected fully in workers' ris-ing standard of living.
The elimination of substandard wages is alsoan accepted national goaland has been for 30years, since the enactment of the Fair LaborStandards Act of 1938 (FLSA) . Successiveamendments to the act, culminating in those of1966, have extended its minimum wage provisionsto a larger and larger proportion of the work forceand have raised the specified minimums to pro-gressively higher levels (in dollars; if not alwaysin terms of purchasing power) . State minimumwage laws also reflect public recognition, extend-ing many years back, of the need to protect work-ers against substandard wage rates.
The growing concern with inadequate annualearnings is more recent. It can be traced to theNation's explicit commitment to eliminate poverty.Although the reduction of unemployment is an in-tegral part of the antipoverty programs, there isrealization that year-round employment of a fam-ily's chief breadwinner provides no guarantee ofan annual income above the poverty threshold. In1966, for example, nearly one-third of the Nation'spoor families were headed by workers employedall year but at inadequate wages. It is hoped thatthe improvements in minimum wage standards un-der recent amendments to the FLSA will help,over the next several years, to raise wages formany of the working poor. But more extensivemeasuresfor example, training to increase theirproductivity or some form of income supple-mentsmay well be required to lift other workersin this group above the poverty level.
Another reason why the spotlight is turningmore and more on the adequacy of workers' earn-ings is concern with inequality of income. The con-viction is growing that social unrest in urban ghet-tos may reflect dissatisfaction with the disparitybetween the impoverished and the affluent, as muchas with the low level of living endured by slum-dwellers. Thus, knowledge about earnings is essen-tial in evaluating the position of workers in theAmerican economy and society. And while the
26
first concern of manpower policy is to eliminateunemployment, a closely related concern is thatthose who work shall share in the nationalprosperity.
Accordingly, this discussion of the adequacy ofworkers' earnings has two focuses. It considers,first, the recent and impending improvements inminimum wage standards under the FLSA andthe numbers of workers still receiving lowerhourly wages. The main discussion, however, isconcerned with annual earningsand particularlywith the magnitude of the low-earner problem stillexisting among workers with year-round, full-time employment, despite a major reduction in theextent of low earnings since the early 1960's.
MINIMUM WAGE STANDARDS
Minimum wage standards, at bath the Federaland State levels, have helped increasingly to es-tablish a floor under workers' wages. The FairLabor Standards Actthe Federal minimum wagelawestablishes minimum wage protection forworkers engaged in interstate commerce or in theproduction of goods for interstate commerce andfor employees of certain enterprises which are soengaged.
This law aims to establish a minimum standardof wages necessary for the health, efficiency, andgeneral well-being of workers without substan-tially curtailing employment or earning power.The 1966 amendments to the FLSA, which be-came effective on February 1, 1967, broadly ex-panded its protections. They raised the minimumwage significantly and extended coverage to manymore workers.
Between 1938, when the law was passed, and theenactment of the 1966 amendments, the level of theminimum wage was increased three times and thebasic coverage of the act expanded only once. The1966 amendments have accomplished the most far-reaching improvements since 1938 in Federal wageand hours standards, and represent a big step to-ward the act's goal of eliminating substandardlabor conditions. When signing these amendments,the President pointed out that "The new minimumwage . . . will not support a very big family, butit will bring workers and their families a little bitabove the poverty line."
rs
TABLE 5. ESTIMATED NUMBER OF PRIVATE NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES EARNING LESS THAN
SPECIFIED CASH WAGES PER HOUR, BY INDUSTRY, FEBRUARY 1968[Numbers in thousands]
Industry
Totalnumber ofnonsuper-
visoryemployees
Total I
Agriculture, forestry, andfisheries
Retail trade (including eat-ing and drinking places)
I Excludes executive, administrative, and professional employees.
About 33 million of the 51.9 million nonsuper-visory workers in private employment were sub-ject to a minimum wage under the FLSA prior tothe amendments. For these workers, the amend-ments raised the specified minimum from the pre-vious $1.25 an hour to $1.40 effective February 1,1967, and $1.60 on February 1, 1968.
Over 9.7 million additional workers were givenprotection by the amendments, including some forwhom this protection will not become effective un-til 1969. More than 2.6 million of the newly coveredworkers are employed by Federal, State, and localgovernments. For most newly covered workers theminimum wage became $1 an hour on February1, 1967, and $1.15 on February 1, 1968, with anadditional increase to $1.30 scheduled for early1969. For newly covered workers in nonfarm jobs(though not those in agriculture) the minimumwill go still higher in following years, reaching$1.60 on February 1,1971.
How many workers in this country still earnless than $1.60 an hour ? It is estimated that about10 1 out of every 5 nonsupervisoryworkers in private employmentreceived less than$1.60 in cash wages in February 1968. Most ofthese workers are in agriCulture, retail trade, a'acithe services, particularly domestic service. (Seetable 5.) Included are a good many workers newlycovered by the FLSAwho must be paid at least$1.60 within 3 years, if they are in nonfarm jobs
as well as workers not covered by the act.While the FLSA provides the basic wage pro-
tection in this country, 36 States, the District ofColumbia, and Puerto Rico have operative mini-mum wage laws or orders, some of which supple-ment the Federal minimum wage. It is estimatedthat as of early 1968, nearly 3.5 million workersnot covered by the FLSAmostly in retail tradeand service industrieswere subject to State mini-mum wage requirements. In five States and PuertoRico the minimum rate in effect in February 1968was $1.60 or more an hour.
Nearly 8.3 million workers in private employ-ment are still unprotected by either Federal orState minimum wage requirements, however. Ofthis group, some 2 million work in retail trade,2.2 million in domestic service, 1.3 million in otherservices, and about 900,000 in agriculture.
These fields of employmentabove all, domesticservice and agricultureare where the problemof low hourly wages is most widespread and mostsevere. More than 4 out of every 5 workers in do-mestic service, and nearly 1 out of every 5 in agri-culture, have money wages of under $1 an hour(though wages in kind may compensate in partfor these extremely low rates).
Information is not available, however, on thepersonal characteristics or the family responsibili-ties of these workers. In order to evaluate the sig-
27
1
nificance for them of low hourly wages, it wouldbe desirable to know, for example, how many areyouth still in school, retired or handicapped work-ers, or secondary wage earners, as well as the num-bers who must support not only themselves butalso dependents on the basis of their meager wages.
ANNUAL EARNINGS
Trends in Earnings
Gains in real yearly earnings (money earningsadjusted for price changes) have been sharp andunremitting in this country since before WorldWar II. In little more than two and a half dec-ades, white male wage earners have increased theirmedian annual wage income by DA timesfrom$2,600 in 1939 to $6,500 in 1966.° White womenworkers nearly doubled their incomesfrom $1,580to $3,100during the same period. For nonwhitemen the dollar gain was far lessfrom $1,050 to$31$50--though their relative position improvedsubstantially. And the same general findings applyto nonwhite women, whose average earnings wentfrom $575 to $2,000.
These long-term gains reflect the ending ofthe great depression of the 1930's, the impact ofWorld War II in stimulating employment, andpostwar economic growth and rising wage levels.Moreover, the trend in earnings has continuedstrongly upward in recent years, as shown by datafor the 5-year period from 1961, when the currenteconomic upturn began, to 1966, the latest yearfor which figures are available.
American workers, both men and Women,achieved significant increases in average earningsin these 5 yearsfrom $5,000 to $5,800 for menand from $1,900 to $2,250 for women. (See chart2.) These figures include workers in the labor forceonly part time or part year, as well as full-timeworkers. If the frame of reference is shifted fromall earners to male year-round, full-time workersonly (nearly all of whom are household heads),the average earnings level is substantially higher,but the rate of gain in earnings remains about thesame. Average earnings 10 for this group advancedfrom $6,050 in 1961 to $6,850 in 1966.
All annual income and earnings data in this chapter are in((constant" 1968 dollarsthat is, price increases since the earlieryears are accounted for by converting the earnings figures to their1968 purchasing power.
28
CHART 2
Earnings of workers increased sharplybetween 1961 and 1966.
Thousands of dollars8.0
Male Female
All earners
Male Female
Full-timeyear-round
workers
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, based on data Pram U.S. Departmentof Commerce.
Of the 35.5 million men employed full timethroughout 1966, 9 percent (3.2 million) earnedless than $3,000. However, both the number andproportion of steadily employed men with earn-ings as low as this were substantially less than in1961a sign of continuing progress in eliminatingsubstandard earnings as a factor in poverty.
Accompanying this decrease in the incidence oflow earnings was a decided increase in the propor-tion of workers earning more than $10,000 a year.The persistent improvement in both these dimen-sions of earnings is shown by the following figuresfor male year-round, full-time workers :
10 Unless otherwise specified, the discussion that follows relatesto total earnings from all sources during the calendar yearwage and salary income from all jobs as well as all farm and non-farm self-employment income. For a full explanation of the earn-ings data, see the report Income in iiiett of Families and Personsin the United States (Washington,: U.S. Department of Com-merce, Bureau of the Census, December 28, 1987), Current Popu-lation Reports Series P-60, No. 53.
Percent who earned
Year Under MOM $10,000 or over
1956 16. 1 9. 71961 13. 2 16. 01966 8. 9 20. 1
A different conclusion is arrived at, however, ifprogress is measured in terms of the distributionof earnings. In 1956, 1961, and also 1966, the high-est paid 20 percent of all male year-round, full-time workers received 40 percent of the aggregateearnings received by such workers, whereas thelowest paid 20 percent received only about 7 per-cent. Though earnings have risen in absolute termsfor workers at both ends of the earnings scale,there has been no improvement in the relativeshare received by the lowest paid fifth of all maleyear-round, full-time workers. In fact, the dispar-ity between the lowest and highest paid groupshas grown in dollars, though not in relative terms.(See table 6.) Ili other words, the gains have beenproportionately distributed among workers at allearnings levels, so that there has been no lesseningof the inequities in the distribution.
TABLE 6. EARNINGS OF MEN WHO WORKED YEARROUND, FULL TIME) 1956, 1961, AND 1966 1
I Earnings for 1U56 and 1001 are adjusted for price changes to 1966.
Problems in Defining Low Earnings
The large numbers of workers who still havesubstandard earningsdefined for the purposes ofthis analysis as an earned income below $3,000 ayearare the focus of concern in the rest of thisearnings discussion. Workers employed yearround at full-time jobs who still make less than$3,000 are the group mainly discussed.
It should be clearly recognized thatwhileestablishing a cutoff below which earnings mightbe designated as unacceptable, substandard, or in-adequatethis $3,000 definition does not allow forthe fact that a fixed amount of purchasing powermay not go as far toward providing a generallyacceptable standard of living as it might have
years ago. As a Nation, we are more affluent andour values with respect to the definition of "neces-sities" have changed.
One indicator of the persistently changing con-cept of a comfortable level of living in this coun-try is provided by the City Worker's FamilyBudget published by the Department of Labor.The third major revision of this budget publishedin 1966 differs significantly from earlier estimates.Expenditure patterns of a family seeking to main-tain a moderate level of living in 1966 reflect differ-ences in the quality and quantity of goods andservices and include many items not previouslyconsidered.
The estimated annual cost of a moderate livingstandard for a well-established family of four was$9,200 in urban areas of the United States as ofautumn 1966, reflecting a 24-percent rise in livingstandards from 7 years earlier.11 The $3,000 lowearnings figure used in this chapter representedonly a third of the BLS moderate living standardin 1966, compared with about two-fifths in 1959.This change suggests a significant worsening ofthe relative position of the low earner in thiscountry.
Perspective on the relative situation of men whoearn less than $3,000 can be gained also by com-parison with the median earnings for all maleyear-round, full-time workers. In 1961, medianearnings for steadily employed males were $6,050(in 1966 dollars) compared with $6,850 in 1966as noted above. Although the number of regularlyemployed men with substandard (i.e., below$3,000) earnings fell by 1 million over the 5-yearperiod, workers who remained in this group faredworse relative to the average steadily employedAmerican male in 1966 than they did in 1961.
Although low earnings of family heads are animportant cause of poverty, it should be noted thatthe $3,000 cutoff is not designed as a measure ofpoverty. It takes no account of supplementarysources of income or of variable family needs.Rather, it reflects the progress made so far in es-tablishing a national standard regarding the mini-mum acceptable rewards for work, as expressed inthe national minimum wage law. A worker paid
II These estimates reflect the variation in priorities and avail-able income from family to family as well as the costs of theitems that comprise the budget. The mix of goods and services in-cluded in the total varies over time and from family to family.See City Worker's Family Budget (Washington : U.S. Departmentof Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1960), BLS Bulletin No.1570-1.
29
for 50 weeks of work, averaging 40 hours each, at$1.60 an hour (the general FLSA minimum stand-ard) would earn $3,200 for the year. In all likeli-hood, annual earnings of $3,200 in 1968 will haveabout the same purchasing power as $3,000 did in1966, due to the steady upward trend in prices.
In this discussion, the $3,000 cutoff is applied toall workers regardless of family status, althoughsubstandard earnings of family heads inevitablyrepresent a more serious social problem and there-fore should perhaps receive highest priority inprogram planning. For this reason, the focus ofthe discussion is on male earners, nearly all ofwhom are family heads or, in a small proportionof cases, individuals living by themselves.
It is important to keep in mind that the earningsfigures do not represent take-home pay, since theyreflect gross income before taxes or any other de-ductions. Neither do they reflect earnings in kind,nor the value of non-money benefits derived fromcommunity services or from the employer-employeerelationship. Many American workers have re-ceived increasingly numerous and liberal fringebenefitspaid vacations and holidays, supple-
CHART 3
Proportion of men with low earningshas dropped at all occupational levels.
Percent of men employed year-round
full time who earned under $3,000.
0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Nonfarm laborers
Service workers
Operatives
Clerical andsales
Managers
Craftsmen
professional andtechnical
Note: Nonfarm occupations only.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, based on data from the U.S.Department of Commerce.
30
mental unemployment benefits, health insurance,and so forth. The available data do not permit tak-ing account of such benefits in any systematic way.In general, however, the workers with the lowestmoney earnings are those least likely to ha 7e sub-stantial fringe benefits. And they are all too oftenhampered in making effective use of their limitedincomes by obstacles such as inability to get creditor credit gouging, the high prices and low qualityof goods frequently found in slum area stores, andlack of knowledge of good purchasing methods.
Beyond question, a man trying to support afamily in an urban area in the 1960's has had andwill continue to have a very difficult time manag-ing on money earnings under $3,000 a year. As-suming that a man should be able to support hisfamily by his own earningswithout hailing torely on the earnings of his wife or children or onother sources of income such as public assistanceit is relevant to point out that $3,000 in earned in-come is not enough to keep any urban family offour or more above the poverty leve1.12
Characteristics of Low Earners
Low cash earnings are most prevalent amongfarmers and farm laborers. Farmworkers ac-counted for about 3 out of every 10 low earners(annual earnings under $3,000) among male year-round, full-time workers in 1966. However, farm-ers and farmworkers often receive income in kind,which supplements their low money earnings tosome small extent.
The incidence of low earnings among "fullyemployed" farmworkers, although extremely highin 1966, represented a striking improvement since1961. The proporion making less than $3,000dropped from 62 to 47 percent during these 5 years.
The extensive migration from farm to nonfarmareas helped to reduce the incidence of low earn-ings among farmworkers, because of the heavyrepresentation of the lowest earners among themigrants. At she same time, there was definiteimprovement in the earnings of workers who re-mained, on the farm and had full-time work allyear.13 Over the 5-year period, median earnings
32 See Who Was Poor in 1968 (Washington : U.S. Departmentof Health, Education, and Welfare, Social Security Administra-tion, December 6, 1067), Research and Statistics Note No. 23,table 1.
Is Occupation, industry, and class of worker (i.e., wage andsalary worker or self-employed) relate to the longest job heldduring the calendar year.
TABLE 7. PERCENT OF YEAR-ROUND, FULL-TIMEEMPLOYED MEN WHO EARNED LES'S THAN$3,000, BY INDUSTRY AND CLASS OF WORKER,1961 AND 1966 1
Mining, forestry, fisheries 5. 5 5. 5Construction 11.5 7. 3Manufacturing 4. 2 4. 3Transportation and public utilities 3.7 3. 7Wholesale and retail trade 12.4 9.4Finance and service 10.6 8.8Public administration 3.7 2.5
Self-employed 18.6 13. 7
iFor comparability, 1961 earnings figures are adjusted to reflect pricechanges between 1961 and 1966.
for farmers and farm managers went up by $1,200;for farm laborers, by $350.14
It must be borne in mind that these data relateonly to year-round, full-time workers, and thatintermittency of employment is a particularlysevere and prevalent problem among farmwork-ers. In 1966, only 34 percent of the men whoselongest job was as a farm laborer or foremanworked full time the year round, compared with anaverage of 70 percent for all occupational groups.Comprehensive data on yearly earnings are notyet available, however, for either farm or non-farm workers employed only part of the year.
In most nonfalin occupation groups also, theproportion of low earners declined over the past 5years. But occupational differences in the incidence
1+ It is,possibie to calculate roughly the relative influence of thedecrease in the farm labor force (through out-migration or shiftsto nonfarm activity) as opposed to the drop in the incidence oflow earnings by applying the 1961 incidence of low earnings tothe 1900 farm labor force. If the 1901 incidence of, low earningsstill prevailed in 1900, there would have been 1.2 million lowearners in 1000, compared with the 1.6 million there were in1061. The difference between these two groups of low earnersnearly 500,000 workers -is that part of the drop in low earnersthat could be attributed to the decrease in the full-time, year-round farm labor force. The remaining differences between thelow earners at the 1901 rate and the actual number of low earn-ers in 1966-300,000 workers-is that part of the overall 1061 to1066 decrease that could be attributed to the decrease in the inci-dence of low earnings among year-round, full-time farmworkers.
of low earnings remained about constant. (Seechart 3.)
All major industry groups made progress be-tween 1961 and 1966 in reducing their low-earnersratios. Particularly marked improvements wererecorded for trade and services. This was probablydue in part to increased minimum wage coveragein trade and service establishments. As of 1966,however, low earners still represented a consider-ably larger proportion of the wage and salarywork force in trade and services than in all non-agricultural industries. (See table 7.)
In general, the proportion of low earners dif-fered rather moderately among the major nonfarmindustry divisions, probably reflecting, for themost part, industry differences in the proportionof low-skilled workers employed. In agriculture,the proportion of low earners was much higherthan in any other industry, both among self-em-ployed farmers (44 percent) and among wage andsalary workers in full-time, year-round jobs onfarms (49 percent). The problems of underemploy-ment and poverty are extreme for many farmersas well as farm laborers." And they contributeheavily to the total problem of low earnings amongAmerican workers.
Nonwhite Workers
One-fourth of the nonwhite men who workedthe who3e year were low earners, compared with7 percent of the whites. Almost universally-oc-cupation by occupation and industry by indus-try-steadily employed nonwhite men experienceda higher incidence of low earnings than did whites.
Differential earnings by occupational groupwere marked. In every occupational category, non-white men had a much higher incidence of lowearnings than did white men. Furthermore, theconcentration of nonwhites in such low-paying oc-cupations as service jobs and unskilled labor ac-counts, in part, for the large overall discrepancyin earnings between white and nonwhite workers.For example, 15 percent of all nonwhite men em-ployed all year were nonfarm laborers, as opposedto 4 percent of the white men. (See table 8.)
If nonwhite workers could move up the occu-pational ladder, their earnings position would of
15 For a further discussion of the problem of rural poverty, seeThe People Loft Behind (Washington : President's National Ad-visory Commission on Rural Poverty, September 1967).
31
course be improved. However, the income gainswould probably be smaller for them than for whitemen making similar occupational progress. It hasbeen estimated (on the basis of 1966 occupationalearnings) that the low-earner rate for nonwhiteswould still be about three times that for whites,even with the differences in occupational distribu-tion eliminated at the major group level.
Differential earnings between whites and non-whites were equally marked on an industry basis.The only nonagricultural industry where non-white wage and salary workers earning below$3,000 for the year constituted less than one-tenthof total nonwhite employment was public admin-istration. Among white nonagricultural wage andsalary workers, however, the highest incidence oflow earners was 7 percent-in trade and services.The differentials in low earnings between whitesand nonwhites in the major industrial sectors areshown in table 9. It is clear that nonwhites ex-perience a share in substandard earnings that faroutweighs their share in total employment in allmajor branches of private industry.
These figures show that steps to reduce poverty
for nonwhite people must go beyond providingjobs for the unemployed or those not in the workforce, beyond eradicating involuntary part-yearor part-time work, and even beyond providingjobs in higher skill, higher paying occupations.In addition to these important measures, dis-criminatory pay scales and hiring practices mustbe eliminated, and the worker's earnings potentialmust be upgraded through better training, promo-tion opportunities and more job security.
Low Earnings Among Women
If $3,000 is considered to be a cutoff for sub-standard earnings-that is, an inadequate returnfor a whole year of full-time labor-women whoworked all year in 1966 were in a much less satis-factory position than men. More than 1 in 4 of thefully employed women received less than $3,000,compared with fewer than 1 in 10 of the men. Halfof the women who worked all year received $3,950or less, while the median earnings level for themen was $6,850.
TABLE 8. OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF YEAR-ROUND, FULL-TIME EMPLOYED MEN AND THOSEWHO EARNED LESS THAN $3,000, BY COLOR, 1966
Only about 12 percent of the women who workcontinuously throughout the year are familyheads. It is sometimes argued, therefore, that lowearnings may not produce as much hardship forwomen workers and their families as they do formen. However, the earnings of women who aresecondary wage earners are often essential to keeptheir families out of poverty. And for women whoare family heads, their generally limited earningsmay be a source of acute deprivation.
Fortunately, women have shared somewhat inthe recent improvements in earnings. The numberof women year-round, full-time workers earningless than $3,000 declined very little between 1961and 1966 (from 3.'7 to 3.6 million). But during thesame period, the total number of women workingfull time all year rose by 3.'7 million; so even asmall decrease in the low-earner group representeda significant relative gain. The incidence of lowearnings among women was reduced in all occu-pations except private household work, where thelow-earner ratio rose slightly.
The continued large numbers of women in low-paid service occupations are a major factor con-tributing to the high proportion of women workersin the low-earnings category. However, increasesin substandard wage rates will be mandatory overthe next several years for some service workersoutside private households, as well as many intrade and certain other fields, under the 1966amendments to the Fair Labor Standards Act (asdiscussed earlier) . The prohibition of wage andother discrimination in employment under theEqual Opportunity Act also applies to women andshould help progressively to open opportunitiesfor them in better paying jobs.
INFORMATIONAL NEEDS
1. As suggested in the discussion of minimumwage standards, more information is needed on thesocioeconomic characteristics of low-wage work-ersboth those outside the scope of the Fair LaborStandards Act and those covered by the law butpaid no more than the minimum wage. Informa-tion on the age, sex, color, marital status, and num-ber of dependents of low-wage workers, as wellas their occupations and training, is essential topolicy planning. Explorations are in process ofthe various possible ways of obtaining informationfor these workers.
2. The lack of satisfactory earnings informationfor part-year and part-time workers has signifi-cantly limited the foregoing discussion of the ade-quacy of earnings. Some suggestions for meetingthis need by expanded tabulations of existing sta-tistics are included in the following section onStrengthening the Sub-Employment Data. In ad-dition, regular collection of weekly earnings data isneeded in connection with the Current PopulationSurvey, to provide a direct measure of earningslevels for all workers which can be related to theirpersonal and economic characteristics.
3. Although fringe benefits are known to be animportant earnings supplement for many workers,no comprehensive data are available as to their na-ture or extent or the characteristics and moneyearnings of the workers who do and do not receivethem. The feasibility of obtaining information onthese benefits from household surveys and othersources, such as the present system of payroll re-ports from employers, should be explored.
33
The Concept or Sub-Employment
An initial effort to estimate the total impact ofjoblessness and inadequate earnings on workersin urban slums, through a combined sub-employ-ment rate, was reported on in last year's ManpowerReport. In 10 slum areas surveyed by the Depart-ment of Labor in October 1966, the average rateof sub-employment was found to be about one-third. In other words, 1 out of every 3 shun resi-dents who were already workers, or should andcould become workers with suitable help, waseither jobless or earning only substandard wages.
This rough estimate represented a first ex-ploratory approach to overall measurement of theproblems of unemployment and hardship in someof the worst and poorest city slums. The new seriesof urban employment surveys, to be launched bythe Department in 1968, will carry forward thiseffort to study sub-employment in slum areaswhere the problem is most extreme. What is re-ported on here is an initial step toward develop-ment of a sub-employment measure on a nationalbasis.
The concept of sub-employment reflects the judg-ment that workers with low earnings may haveproblems of as much concern from the viewpointof manpower polity as those of many workerswith substantial unemployment. The purpose ofanalyzing low earnings in conjunction with un-employment is not to equate the two, since theyrepresent very different problems that will yieldto very different solutions. Rather, the concept ofsub-employment is designed to provide a summarymeasure of the total problem of unemployment andlow earnings, its compounded impact on the samedisadvantaged groups, and its effects in preventingseveral million workers and their families fromsharing in the Nation's economic prosperity. 10
In working toward a national sub-employmentindicator, unemployment has been measured interms of the worker's experience during an entirecalendar year, and the earnings data utilized areannual earnings for year-round, full-time employ-ment (as discussed in the preceding sections on lin-
1.8 It should be pointed out that the tools for creating a crudeconcept of subemployment have been available for several years ;data on annual earnings of year-round workers, and on the em-ployment and unemployment experience of workers on a calendaryear basis, have been available since 1050 for men and since 1000for women. This is the first time, however, that the two sets ofdata have been brought together in a single, comprehensivemeasure.
34
employment and Adequacy of Workers' Earn-ings). Thus, the indicator measures sub-employ-ment on an annual basisa considerably differentmeasure from the sub-employment rate in a specificweek arrived at last year for "workers in urbanslums."
The new sub-employment measure includes twoclearly defined and distinct groupsworkers un-employed 15 or more weeks during the year andthose who made less than $3,000 for year round,full-time work (taken as a proportion of the entirelabor force with a week or more of work experi-ence during the year).
This measure is a very conservative one, focusedon the most serious problems of unemploymentand low earnings. The use of annual income datafor full-time, year-round workers omits manywhose weekly or hourly rates are inadequate. Sim-ilarly, the exclusion of persons who had fewer than15 weeks of unemployment understates that prob-lem. Many workers with low earning, and no sav-ings can be severely affected by any unemployment,and those who have almost 15 weeks of unemploy-ment are certain to be seriously affected. The pres-ent measure of sub-employment also excludes per-sons who work part time involuntarily in manyweeks of the year as well as those who have lookedfor jobs for as long as 15 weeks and then becomediscouraged and stop looking. Furthermore, no al-lowance is made for the incomplete coverage of the
17 The unemployment component of the 1007 sub.embloymentrate for slum areas represented the number of persons unem-ployed in a particular week of the year regardless of their dura-tion of unemployment. The measure described here ineludes allpersonsand only thosewho were unemployed 15 or moreweeks during the year. Similarly, the earnings component of the1007 index was based on weekly earnings below a specified mini-mum, whereas the present measure is an annual one.
In addition, the 1007 index included the following components:1. Persons working only part time though they wantedfull-time work ;2. Half the number of "nonparticipants" among men aged20 to 04 (on the assumption that the other half are notpotential workers, chiefly because of physical or mentaldisabilities or severe personal problems) ; and3. An estimate of the male "undercount" group (based onthe assumption that the number of men in the area shouldbear the same relation to the number of women that existsin the population generally ; also that half of the unfoundmen are in the four groups of sub-employed people justlisted. See 1967 Manpoteer Report, pp. 74-75.
Many of the persons in the categories are also included thisyear, though not specifically identified. For example, some re-ported last year as involuntary part-time workers or as personsoutside the work force who wanted to work may have had 15or more weeks of unemployment during 1067.
population (the so-called census undercount)which is probably largest among the most disad-vantaged groups.
The preceding sections on Joblessness and Un-deremployment and the Adequacy of Workers'Earnings discuss the available evidence as to theimportance of these omitted groups. Although lim-itations of the data did not permit their inclusionin the sub-employment measure at this time, thenew index provides a base on which a still morecomprehensive measure can be built when theneeded figures become available.
RATES OF SUB-EMPLOYMENT
Sub-employment has declined sharply since 1961.The sub-employment rate, as presently measured,fell from 17 percent in 1961 to 10 percent in 1966.
Low earners were by far the larger of the twogroups included in the index-6.7 million, as com-pared with 2.4 million with 15 or more weeks of
CHAR1614
Sub-employment rates declined sharplyfor both men and women between
1961 and 1966.
Percent of persons whoworked during the year
30.0
20.0
10.0
0
r7-1, Low earners
Unemployed
1961 1966
MenSource: U.S. Department of Labor.Department of Commerce.
1961 1966
WomenData on low earnings from U.S.
unemployment in 1966. And although the numberof low earners declined substantially between 1961and 1966 (by 16 percent), the improvement wasnot nearly as sharp as in the number with exten-sive unemployment (which decreased by morethan 50 percent). Plainly, the problem of low earn-ings has been less responsive to the economic up-turn than extended unemployment and, so far, hasbeen less affected by manpower and antipovertyprograms.
Slightly over half of the sub-employed weremen despite the fact that their rate was considera-bly lower than that for women (9 percent, com-pared with 13 percent). Among both men andwomen, low earnings was a much more commonproblem than unemployment of 15 or more weeks;the disparity was greater for women: (See chart 4.)
The economic disadvantage suffered by non-white men is sharply portrayed by the sub-employ-ment data. Their sub-employment rate was 22 per-cent, compared with 8 percent for white men. Cou-pled with an unemployment rate almost threetimes as high as for white men was an equally dis-proportionate low-earnings rate. (See chart 5.)
That these figures are only a rough, broad-gageindication of the proportion of workers witha substandard employment-earnings situationwarrants additional emphasis. As more data be-come available and concepts are further refined,both modification and supplementation of thismeasure should be possibleincluding measure-ment of the degree of economic hardship sufferedby workers unemployed for different lengths oftime.
STRENGTHENING THE DATA ONSUB-EMPLOYMENT
In the further development of summary indica-tors of unemployment and inadequate earnings,there should be continued emphasis on experi-mentation, innovation, and flexibility. Strengthen-ing of data is needed in several major respects.
Measures of unemployment and inadequate,earnings for residents of urban slums and otherpoverty areas are the first requirement. As notedearlier, the Department of Labor is planning a newseries of surveys which will supply many of theneeded data for urban slums.
35
11
Second, the development of a satisfactorymeasure of sub-employment has been much ham-pered by the absence of interrelated informationon the earnings as well as the income of peoplewith different amounts of unemployment, and ofthose employed only part time or part year. Muchvaluable information on these points could be ob-tained by a major expansion of tabulations relat-ing data already collected through the work-ex-perience and income surveys.
Additional specific needs for improved informa-tion include the following :
36
Information should be tabulated on reasonsfor unemployment, for part-year and part-time work, and for nonparticipation in thework force. Such information would be ofparticular value in interpreting the proposednew tabulations relating work experience andincome.
An expanded tabulation program focusingon the work experience of each family mem-ber and the relation of such work experienceto his earnings, and to family income, wouldyield many important insights.
CHART 5
Sub-employment rate is nearly three timesas high for nonwhite as for white men.
Percent of men whoworked during the year
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0 -
Low earners
Unemployed
5.0
Nonwhite White
1966
Source: U.S. Department of Labor. Data on low earnings fromU.S. Department of Commerce.
Is
Income Maintenance For Workers
Income protection in the event of unemploymentor disabling accident or injury is another area ofurgent concern to the well-being of workers andtheir dependents. And so is assurance of anadequate income after retirement.18
The magnitude of the unemployment risk isindicated by figures already cited : In 1966, morethan 11 million workers had at least one period ofjoblessness (over 15 million in the less prosperousyears of 1961 and 1962). About 1 million workerswere unemployed for 27 or more weeks.
More than 2 million suffered work injuries, and14,500 died from these injuries. In addition, on anaverage day, an estimated 13/4 to 2 million work-ers are prevented from working as a result ofnonoccupational disabling injuries or illnesses,which are far more frequent than work-connecteddisabilities.
Risks of such magnitude demand protectivemeasures of commensurate scope and depth. Thishas been recognized since the inception of oursocial security system more than 30 years ago. Un-employment insurance and retirement benefitshave been major elements in this system from thebeginning. Workers disabled by work-connectedaccident or injury have for even longerover 50yearslooked chiefly to the State workmen'scompensation insurance programs for economicprotection.
Though all these systems have limitations andloopholes, they have been the means of preventingor greatly reducing deprivation for many millionsof Americans. They have also been supplementedby a variety of public and private programs forparticular groups of workers. Moreover, a starthas been made in providing income maintenancefor workers disabled by illness or injury not re-lated to their jobs.
To describe and assess the nature, accomplish-ments, and limitations of this highly complicatednetwork of programs would be far beyond thescope and purpose of this section. All that is at-tempted here is to review briefly the availableinformationsome of it comprehensive, somefragmentaryon how many of the country's
le This discussion is limited to income maintenance programsdesigned to reduce income loss resulting from interruption ofwork, and therefore does not include public assistance, manpowertraining, or poverty programs.
93-459 0 - 68 - 5
workers receive income protection from the majorprograms and how adequate this protection is.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The major source of income maintenance pro-tection in case of unemployment is the State-Federal unemployment insurance (UI) system,designed to provide temporary assistance againstpart of the wage loss due to involuntary unemploy-ment. A separate Federal wage-insurance programaffords protection to unemployed railroadworkers; still other Federal programs offer pro-tection to civilian employees of the Governmentand to ex-servicemen. Supplementing these Gov-ernment programs, for relatively small groups ofworkers, are private measuresalmost exclusivelythe result of collective bargaining.
Public Unemployment Insurance
'overage. Nationally, more than three-fourths ofall jobs in wade and salary employment arecovered by public unemployment insurance sys-tems, including the programs for railroad workers,Federal civilian employees, and ex-servicemen, aswell as the State-Federal UI system.
Effective as these programs are ($82.2 million inbenefits were paid to almost 5 million unemployedworkers in 1967), their coverage has major limita-tions. Nearly one-fourth of the jobs held by wageand salary workers are excluded. These noncov-ered jobs are chiefly in five major categories : (1)State and local government, (2) domestic service,(3) nonprofit organizations, (4) farms and theprocessing of agricultural products, and (5) verysmall firms. (See chart 6.)
Since the State UI laws differ somewhat in theircoverage provisions, the proportion of wage andsalary workers with UI protection is higher insome States than others, partly because of the in-dustrial composition of the State's economy. It isunder 70 percent in four largely agriculturalStates (North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, andNebraska) and 100 percent in Hawaii only. (Seechart 7.)
37
CHART 6
I
One out of every four wage and salary workersis not covered by unemployment insurance)]
7.8 million State and local government
2.5 million Domestic service
2.3 million Nonprofit
4 io-1.6 million-o 1.8 million
0.3 million
Farm and agricultural processing
Small firmsOther
.7 million Railroad Unemployment Insurance
2.8 million Federal workers3.1 million Armed Forces
1966 estimates.V Excludes clergymen and members of religious orders, student nurses, interns, and students employed in
schools where enrolled.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
In addition, the public unemployment insur-ance programs are not designed and do not attemptto protect the self-employed, unpaid familyworkers, young workers searching for their firstjob, or reentrants into the labor force. Yet in 1967almost two-fifths of the unemployed were in thesecategoriesa very sizable and vulnerable groupof workers.
Even for wage and salary workers in coveredemployment, protection is not guaranteed. Noworker qualifies automatically for UI benefits. Theunemployment 'insurance program, like all othersocial insurance or income maintenance programs,requires some minimum earnings or length of serv-ice, or both, before a worker is eligible for benefits.In 1967, 12 percent of the jobless workers whoapplied for benefits under the UI system had in-sufficient work experience to qualify for them. Andif the unemployed workers who did not apply forbenefits because they knew they would not qualifycould be counted also, the proportion excluded be-cause of insufficient work experience would bemuch higher.
38
Adequacy of Benefit Payments. The generally ac-cepted aim of unemployment insurance is to re-store at least half of the gross weekly wages ofmost workers who would qualify for UI benefits.
In general, State laws provide for weekly bene-fits equal to half the worker's previous weeklywage, up to a specified maximum benefit amount.When the laws were first enacted, the maximumsset were high enough to achieve the 50-percentbenefit objective for most workers. But since then,benefits have failed to keep pace with rising wages.In 1967 the national average weekly benefit($41.25) represented only 36 percent of the aver-age weekly wage in covered employment, com-pared with 42 percent in 1939. In dollar terms, thegap between wages and benefits has widenedgreatly year after year. (See chart 8.)
The growing inadequacy of average weeklybenefits, relative to average wages, is explained bythe legally established ceilings on weekly benefits.These maximum benefit amounts, in many casesfixed in dollar terms, have lagged further and fur-ther behind rising wages. Currently, the maximumbasic weekly benefit represents half or more of theaverage weekly wage in covered employment in
CHART 7
Percent of nonfarm wageand salary workers
90% or more
80.89%
Under 80%
Proportion of workers covered by unemployment insurancevaries greatly among States..11
J.J Excludes employment in private households; includes all State and Federal programs, percentages basedon March 1967 employment adjusted for coverage increases.
.2/ Included la national average.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
PUERTO RICO 21
only 19 States. In 1939, all but two States were inthe 50-percent or more category.
Workers in low-paid jobs, who qualify for aweekly benefit below the maximum, can usuallyget a benefit equal to half their weekly wages. Butthose at higher wage levels are prevented by thebenefit ceiling from receiving a 50-percent wage-loss replacement. Thus, the proportion of UIclaimants at the benefit maximum is another sig-nificant measure of benefit adequacy.
In 1967, 47 percent of all eligible claimants wereconcentrated at the maximum weekly benefitamount, compared to an estimated 26 percent in1939.19 This change can be interpreted in two ways.On the one hand, it reflects the rising occupationaland wage levels of American workers. The propor-tion of workers who are in low-skill and low -pay-ing jobsthe kind of jobs in which periods of un-employment occur most frequentlyhas declinedsignificantly. However, it is plain that, for a largeand growing proportion of workers covered by the
3$ In general, weekly benefit limits under the railroad unem-ployment insurance system are more generous than those in mostState programs. Nevertheless, in recent years almost all railroadbeneficiaries qualified for the maximum benefits.
UI program, unemployment can mean more thana 50-percent income drop (from their previousweekly wage level) .
Duration of Benefit Payments. Unemployment in-surance must provide income maintenance protec-tion of sufficient duration to tide workers overtemporary periods of unemployment between jobsif it is to meet its intended objectives. Most Statespay benefits up to a maximum of 26 weeks (morein a few States) in a 1-year period. In nearly allStates, however, the maximum duration of benefitsfor which a worker may qualify varies with thelength of his past employment, so that some claim-ants are entitled to less than even 10 weeks ofbenefits.2°
The adequacy of benefit duration can be meas-ured by the proportion of claimants who remainunemployed so long that they exhaust their benefitrights. In periods when the general level of unem-ployment is low, about one-fifth to one-fourth of
ID The railroad unemployment insurance system has a uniformduration of 26 weeks and has a special provision for extendedbenefits to workers with long service in the railroad industry whoexhaust their normal benefits.
39
all workers who receive benefits exhaust their en-titlement, whereas in recession periods this propor-tion may rise to one-third. (See chart 9.) But evenin high employment periods, significant propor-tions of workers hit by locational, technological, orother changes in the structure of employment useup their benefits before finding new jobs.
For a great many of those who exhaust theirbenefit rights, the duration is limited to less than26 weeks. In 1966, 'for example, almost 55 percentof the claimants who exhausted their benefits re-ceived compensation for less than 26 weeks. Mostof these workers have no further income protec-tion, regardless of how long it takes them to findnew jobs or to be recalled to their previous ones.
For millions of workers, then, the UI systemdoes not meet its original objectives. It often failsto restore even as much as half of the weekly earn-ings to those who lose their jobs, and even thatinadequate payment often stops before the work-ers are again earning wages.
Private Unemployment Benefit Programs
Additional income protection for the unem-ployed is available to relatively small groups ofworkers under private programs. One type of pro-gram aims at supplementation of UI benefits. Oth-ers are designed to maintain or extend wage pay-ments, or their equivalent, during slack periodsand following a worker's separation, regardlessof substitute income in the form of unemploymentinsurance benefits. In general, workers who areprotected by private programs are likely to beemployed in jobs also covered by the public UIsystem. So the effect of these programs is to pro-vide more adequate income maintenance for someworkers eligible for UI, rather than to help someof the millions without UI protection.
Supplemental Unemployment Benefit Plans. Incomesecurity protection became an important issue incollective bargaining in the 1950's, when a con-
CHART 8
Dollars120
100
80
0
40
20
0
Average weekly wages have outrun average weeklyunemployment insurance benefits.
rijr,4C 7.
Ratio, benefits to wages-1/Percent50-
.
30-1939 '43 '47 '51 '55 '59 '63 1966
tr1.47 1.1
2 c.
r 24i;c
1939 1943 1947
I/ Benefits related to wages in the preceding calendar year.2/ In covered employment.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
1951 1955 1959 1966
40
CHART 9
Millions6
5
4
3
2
1
Many more workers exhaust their unemploymentinsurance benefits when unemployment rises.
0 - ff
Thousands300 r
;f,
200
100
0
1957
Land-term unemployment (15 weeks or wee)
`,""i
1ff-
iotal umber of markets salmnsting benefits
1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
J Includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning in January 1960.2/ Includes state, veterans', ex-servicemen's, Federal civilian employees', and railroad progrems.1/ Excludes exhaustions under the Railroad Unemployment Insurance program; includes exhaustlons
under Puerto Rico Unemployment Insurance program after Dec. 31, 1960.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
1963 1964 1965 1966
certed drive by several unions led to the establish-ment of supplemental unemployment benefitplans (SUB). Such plans are designed to supple-ment benefits paid under the public unemploymentcompensation programs. Concurrency and integra-tion of SUB and State UI benefits are usual.
Approximately 700 SUB plans throughout theNation cover about 2.5 million workers (1 out of20 of those covered by public programs)half ofthem in the automobile and steel industries.2i Thecoverage of SUB plans, in terms of the numbersof workers protected, has been at a standstill inrecent years. The scope of many such plans, how-ever, has been broadened to provide for benefitsto partially unemployed workers, and severancepay and moving allowances to terminated workers.
Benefits to the individual worker, including UIbenefits, are designed to replace 60 to 70 percent
' Dorothy IL IUttner, "Supplementary Unemployment BenefitPlane," Unemployment Insurance Review, August 1967, pp. 1-2
of earnings, and practically all plans provideweekly allowances for dependents in addition tothe regular weekly benefit amount. This meansthat these workers are, of course, much better offthan the vast majority of workers who have todepend solely on the public UI system.
Employment and Wage Guarantees and RelatedBenefits. The establishment of employment or wageguarantees has been one of the goals sought byorganized labor as a solution to the problem of in-come maintenance for workers. The basic differ-ence between such guarantees and SUB plans isthat the former assure workers who start or areavailable for work a minimum of employment orpayment of straight time weekly wages for a statednumber of weeks, while SUB plans usually sup-plement VI benefits to laid-off workers.
Employment and wage guarantees are providedfor in only a few collective bargaining agreements.
iy about 600,000 workers were covered by such
41
guarantees in 1963, the latest date for which in-formation is available, and for the most part theguarantee was for a week only, although in a fewcases it extended to 1 year. However, the 1967agreements in the automobile industry took a longstep toward a guaranteed annual wage, througha provision extending the industry's SUB plan.Beginning in December 1968, laid-off employeeswith 1 year of seniority will be entitled to 95percent of their normal pay for 31 weeks, whilethose with 7 years' seniority will be entitled tothis benefit for up to a year after layoff.
Severance pay arrangements are known by manydifferent names (e.g., termination pay, dismissalpay, separation pay, and layoff allowance). Suchpayments represent compensation for job loss.Benefits are usually based on prior wages andlength of employment. They are not contingentupon the worker remaining unemployed, nor arethey affected by his receipt of other income main-tenance benefits.
As of 1963, approximately 2.3 million workers,chiefly in manufacturing, were covered by sever-ance pay or layoff provisions in major collectivebargaining contracts (those covering 100,000 ormore workers). All these workers are presumablycovered also by unemployment insurance. How-ever, in some 20 States UI benefits are denied orreduced for recipients of severance pay. As yet,severance pay has not been an important sourceof income to workers, nor an important cost itemto employers.
Thus, a worker who loses his job through nofault of his own, and who cannot locate anotherjob quickly, is likely to find himself, sooner orlater, thrown on his own resources. Even minimalhelp is not forthcoming if he is in a job not coveredby UI or if he is only casually and intermittentlyemployed in a covered job.
SICKNESS AND DISABILITY COMPENSATION
Work-Connected Disabilities
How great is the risk of disabling injury on thejob ? This question can be answered in terms ofwhat lies ahead for the oncoming generation ofworkers. 'Unless substantial progress is made in re-ducing work injuries, 1 out of every 100 youngpeople currently entering the work force at age20 will die as the result of a work injury. Six more
42
will suffer a permanent impairment, and 68 willexperience one or more disabling injuries. Only25 out of the 100 can expect to complete their work-ing lives without a disabling work injury.
The disabled worker must look chiefly to Stateworkmen's compensation programs for economicprotection against short-term disability. The long-term disabled must rely most often on disabilityretirement under the Federal.Old -Age, Survivors,Disability, and Health Insurance (OASDHI)program, since most State laws limit benefits forthe permanently disabled to a specific period, leav-ing the worker still disabled and without income.
The workmen's compensation system is a net-work of independent State programs. A separateprogram exists for Federal employees. The Fed-eral Government also administers programs relat-ing to certain segments of private industry em-ploymentnotably, maritime and harbor workersand longshoremen, and workers in the District ofColumbia.22 The various laws differ widely in cov-erage, in benefit provisions, and in the insurancemechanism relied on to provide cash benefits andmedical care for injured workers, and monetarypayments to survivors of those killed on the job.
Coverage. An estimated 53 to 54 million workersmore than 80 percent of all civilian wage and sal-ary workers in the 50 States, the District of Co-lumbia, and the Federal Governmentare coveredby the workmen's compensation system as awhole 23 (including both State and Federal pro-grams) . The benefits received are a major source ofsupport for the families of the approximately14,500 persons killed at work each year, and for alarge proportion of the 2.2 million workeris who areinjured on the job. But 1 out of every 5 wage andsalary workers (some 12 million) and practicallyall those who are self-employed are without anypublic income protection in case of work injuryan omnipresent risk for many of these unprotected
" The relevant Federal programs are those administered underthe Longshoremen's and harbor Workers' Compensation Act,District of Columbia Workmen's Compensation Act, Defense BaseAct, War Hazards Compensation Act, Outer Continental ShelfLands Act, and the Nonappropriated Fund Instrumentalities Act.
Maritime workers are subject to the Merchant Marine Act(J'ones Act), under which the provisions of the Federal Em-ployers' Liability Act are made applicable to seamen. This actgives an employee an action in negligence against his employerand provides that the employer may not plead the common lawdefense of fellow servant or assumption of risk. It also substi-tutes the principle of comparative negligence for the commonlaw principle of contributory negligence.
s These figures do not include railroad workers in interstatecommerce and seamen in the U.S. Merchant Marine, who arecovered under the Federal Employers' Liability Act.
A
workers, including those in agriculture.The proportion of workers covered by work-
men's compensation has remained virtually un-changed since 1953. Jobs excluded from the work-men's compensation system in many States aregenerally the same jobs as are excluded from un-employment insurance coveragedomestic service,agricultural and small firm employment, and em-ployment in nonprofit organizations. No State lawcovers all employment; some restrict coverage, forexample, to so-called "hazardous" occupations.
As is true of III insurance, coverage does notassure compensation. In 23 States, employers mayelect not to come under the act, in which case theworker must sue to receive compensation. Coverageof occupational diseases is still much more limitedthan that of accidents. Only 32 States now coverall occupational diseases, with the remainingStates providing either no coverage or coveragefor only certain specified diseases. Even in Stateswhere occupational illnesses are covered, benefitsare usually less generous for such illnesses than forinjury or disability resulting from 'accidents.
The possibility of latent illness and the com-plexities involved in determining causal relation-
ships in many occupational disease cases are fac-tors that must be considered in assuring adequatecoverage and compensation benefits to disabledworkers. For example, a study of the incidence oflung cancer among underground uranium miners(to date over 100 deaths due to lung cancer have
been reported) has demonstrated that there is anassociation between exposure to radiation hazardsand the contraction of lung cancer in the higherexposure groups.24 While reliable estimates of thenumber of future lung cancer cases are not nowpossible, the Federal Radiation Council has ton-eluded that a significant number of additionalcases can be expected.
Adequacy of Benefit Payments. Most workmen'scompensation laws provide for replacement offrom three-fifths to two-thirds of a disabled work-er's lost wages. (Under the Federal Employees'Compensation Act, the weekly benefit for a workerwith dependents is 75 percent; for those without
g Of the principal uranium State5New Mexico, Wyoming,Colorado, and Utahonly oue, Colorado, had recognized lungcancer as an occupational disease among uranium miners priorto 1967, when Utah also acted to control uranium hazards.
CHART 10
Ratio of maximum weekly benefits for temporary total disabilityto average weekly wages varied widely among States in 1966.
66 percent or more
50 percent to 66 percent
Less than 50 percent
4 a°10,
HAWAII
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
PUERTO RICO
43
dependents, 66% percent.) However, because ofceilings on the amount and duration of benefitsand the waiting periods required before benefitsstart, the proportion of wage loss actually compen-sated is much less. Nationally, maximum weeklybenefits averaged only 48 percent of averageweekly wages 25 in 1966 and varied among theStates. (See chart 10.) The maximums rangedfrom $35 in Louisiana and Mississippi to $150 inArizona, with a national average of $55.
There has been a persistent decline in theadequacy of the income protection offered underworkmen's compensation. Measured in 1965-66dollars, maximum benefits in 15 States were lowerin 1966 than they were in 1940, with percentagedeclines ranging from 27.7 in Louisiana to 85.9 in
Hawaii. In all but five States the 1966 maximumweekly benefit amount was less than 60 percent ofthe statewide average weekly wage.
in more practical terms, a disabled worker whohas a family of four to support and who receivesthe maximum weekly benefit amount under work-men's compensation would, in 35 States, fall con-siderably short of the income required to keephis family out of poverty (as measured by theSocial Security Administration's definitions).
For work injuries that result in death (about14,500) or permanent disability (about 90,000)benefits are even less adequate.26 Under workmen'scompensation laws in many States, benefits for thepermanently disabledor for survivors of workerskilled in work-connected accidentsare limitedto a specific period, or a specific dollar amount.After these benefits expire, permanently disabledworkers or the survivors of workers killed on thejob are left without income unless they are eligiblefor benefits under OASDHI or private plans.
Proposed Legislation on Occupational Safety andHealth. As the President emphasized in his mes-sage on Manpower to the Congress in January1968: "The gap in worker protection is wide andglaringand it must be closed by a strong andforceful new law." Accordingly, the President sub-mitted to the Congress the Occupational Safetyand Health Act of 1968. As he said :
t5 Average weekly wage as reported under the State unemploy-ment insurance programs.
20 Alfred M. Skolnik, "Twenty-Five Years of Workmen's Com-pensation Statistics," Soda/ Security Bulletin, October 1960, pp.3-26.
44
Here, in broad outline, is what this measure will do.For more than 50 million workers involved in interstate
commerce it will :Strengthen the authority and resources of the Secre-
tary of Health, Education, and Welfare to conductan extensive program of research. This will providethe needed information on which new standards canbe developed.
Empower the Secretary of Labor to set and enforcethose standards.
Impose strong sanctions, civil and criminal, on thosewho endanger the health and safety of the Americanworking man.
For American workers in antra -state commerce, it willprovide, for the first time, Federal help to the States tostart and strengthen their own health and safetyprograms.
Nonoccupational Disabilities
Although short-term nonoccupational disabilityis far more prevalent than work-connected disa-bility, protection against income loss for this riskis much less widespread. In considering protectionagainst nonoccupational disability loss, one mustmake a distinction between short-term disabilitiesand the first 6 months of long-term disabilities, onthe one hand, and the remainder of long-term disa-bilities, on the other. Some workers with short-term disabilities have protection under Federal orState law; others are protected under private in-surance and sick leave plans. Workers with long-term nonoccupational disabilities must relymainly, after the first 6 months, on the OASDHIsystem as their only source of income maintenance(other than public assistance) .
About three-fifths of all wage and salary work-ers in private industry have some protectionagainst loss of earnings because of short-term non-occupational disability, but for many this protec-tion is extremely limited. And the remainingmillions of workers are thrown wholly on theirown resources when disability occurs.
Four States (California New Jersey, NewYork, and Rhode Island) have compulsory, publictemporary disability insurance programs thatcover most of their private wage and salary work-ers. Generally excluded are the same groups ofworkers that are outside the public UI programfarm and domestic workers, those in small firms,and employees of government and nonprofit or-ganizations. Workers in the railroad industry are
protected under the Railroad UnemploymentInsurance Program.
Outside of these compulsory programs, onlyabout half of all private wage and salary workerscan count on any replacement of income losscaused by nonoccupational disability. Of the 21million who did have some other form of short-term disability protection in 1966, some 17 millionwere covered primarily by commercial group in-surance purchased by employers. Others were pro-tected by union and joint union-managementprograms, employers' self-insured plans, and mu-tual aid plans. Insurance plans ordinarily providewage-loss replacement geared to some percentageof the worker's recent wages, with the maximumduration of benefits usually limited to between 13and 26 weeks.
Sick leave plans usually provide for continua-tion of wages for a specified period, sometimesvarying with length of service. Sick leave repre-sented 55 percent of all sickness benefits in 1966,and over two-thirds of that went to governmentworkers.
It is not now possible to determine either theamount of income loss or the adequacy of incomeloss protection for workers with long-term disabili-ties. At the end of 1967, almost 1.2 million disabledworkers under age 65 were drawing benefits underthe OASDHI system for either occupational ornonoccupational disability. Many other disabledworkers are ineligible for benefits either becausetheir disability does not meet the strict statutorydefinitions of disability or because they cannotmeet the work experience requirements.
RETIREMENT PROTECTION
The major public provision for maintenance ofincome for retired workers, as well as for protec-tion to families deprived of their main source ofincome because of death of the breadwinner, is theOASDHI program.
The OASDHI program today approaches uni-versal coverage of retired workers. Excluded arefour major categories : (1) Workers covered underFederal civilian employee retirement systems, (2)household workers and farmworkers whose earn-ings or employment fail to meet certain minimumrequirements, (3) railroad workers covered underthe Railroad Retirement Act, and (4) persons with
extremely low net earnings from self-employment.At the end of 1967, about 12 million retired
workers aged 62 and over were drawing benefitsunder OASDHI. Their average monthly benefitswere about $85. At one extreme, for men whowaited until age 65 to retire, benefits averagednearly $100. At the other extreme, women whosebenefits were reduced for early retirement re-ceived an average just above $65. Benefits arebased on the worker's average monthly earningsover a period of years, and additional benefits areprovided for a wife and dependent child. At thebenefit levels in effect in 1966 and 1967, almost allretired workers without financial resources otherthan OASDHI benefits were living in poverty (asdefined by the Social Security Administration).
Amendments to the Social Security Act, whichwent into effect in February 1968, increased bene-fits by at least 13 percent. Minimum monthly pay-ments increased 25 percent, from $44 to $55. Thetop of the range for a man retiring in 1968 is $156,compared to the previous $138. The averagemonthly benefit for a man and wife now on therolls increased from $145 to $165. However, mostretired (or disabled) workers with a wife and twochildren, who are totally dependent on OASDHI.,are still at or below the poverty level.
Fortunately, many retired workers have otherresources, however limited. About 25 million em-ployees in private nonfarm jobsor almost halfthe private wage and salary labor forceare build-ing up retirement protection supplementary toOASDHI.27 About 3 million persons were receiv-ing private pensions in 1966, compared with some12 million who were drawing retired workers' ben-efits under OASDIII. How many retirees werethus provided an adequate income, and how manywere left below or near the poverty line despiteboth public and private retirement coverage, arequestions not answerable at present.
Civilian employees of the Federal Government(about 2.7 million in 1967) have a separate retire-ment system which, in the case of employees withlong service, provides much more adequate retire-ment income than OASDHI. In addition to beingcovered by OASDHI, career personnel in theArmed Forces are also covered by a separate pro-
27 waiter M. Kolodrubetz, "Growth of EmployeeBeneflt Plans1950-05," Social Sccurity Bulletin, April 1907, pp. 10-27.
45
gram financed entirely by the Federal Govern-ment.
General or special retirement systems adminis-tered by State and local governments are in effectfor nearly 3 out of every 4 State and local gov-ernment employees. Almost all those who are full-time government employees now have retirementprotection through special systems, the FederalOASDHI system, or both. Studies by the SocialSecurity Administration show that employees cov-ered by both a State retirement system andOASDHI generally have more overall protectionthan private industry employees covered byOASDHI and a private pension plan.28
SOME IMPLICATIONS AND DATA NEEDS
Though assessment of existing income mainte-nance programs is hampered by informationalgaps, it is plain that present measures to main-tain income during unemployment, inability towork because of accident or illness, or old age areinadequate for most workers. The great majorityof employees have some protection, varying widelyin extent, but many are still without any incomeprotection when jobless or unable to work. Andthe workers with the most inadequate protectionor none at all are usually those most in need ofhelpthe unskilled, the low paid, and those withlong and repeated spells of unemployment.
Despite improvements in unemployment insur-ance and workmen's compensation programs withregard to duration of benefits, reduction ofwaiting period requirements, and extension ofcoverage and types of protection, the programshave not kept abreast of changing economic con-ditions in one very important respectthe ratioof maximum benefits to average weekly wages andto the cost of living. In both programs, statutorychanges in benefit levels have lagged behind risingwages and living costs, so that in this regard theprograms are even less adequate than they were attheir inception. Today, a worker and his family,dependent solely on either program, would in amajority of cases drop below a poverty sub-sistence level, even if he received the maximumpayment allowable under State laws.
Joseph Kris lov, State and Local Government Retirement Sys-tems in 1965 (Washington : tLS. Department of Health, Educa-tion, and Welfare, Social Security Administration, °Mee of Re-search and Statistics, MO), Research Report No. 15, p. 82.
46
To overcome these grave deficiencies will requiremajor strengthening of the country's income main-tenance programs. Improved data on the adequacyof private as well as public benefit payments andtheir relation to the well-being of workers are alesser need, but they would be of great assistanceas a guide in the essential expansion and improve-ment of programs.
While information on the coverage of the UIprogram and on benefit payments under it appearssufficient, the basic concept that UI will replace 50percent of lost wages calls for scrutiny. How ade-quately does replacement of only half of lost earn-ings meet the needs of unemployed workers andtheir families f How do these workers survive onhalf their earnings? Do they have savings Dothey go on welfare? Answers to such questions arenot available, but are essential if the program is tobe assessed realistically.
Information on private benefit plans is ex-tremely limited. Such plans are increasing at avery rapid rate, and their importance in the entiresystem of income maintenance for private wageand salary workers calls for extended study. Theavailable information does not permit determina-tion of the extent to which such plans supplementUI payments or take the place of UI for workersnot covered by the public UI system. Nor is it pos-sible to determine the relationship between privatebenefit plans end OASDITI payments to long-termdisabled and retired workers. Such studies as areavailable of private benefit plans deal largely withthe provisions of major collective bargaining con-tracts and give little indication of actual coverageor performance under these contracts.
Because of the need to develop a greater overallpublic awareness and understanding of workmen'scompensationits strengths and inequities and itsrelationships to other types of social insuranceacomprehensive review of the program should beundertaken. A national center for the collectionand distribution of comparative workmen's com-pensation statistics could assemble much neededdata, including for each State such items as thenumber of workers covered, the number andamount of benefit payments by type of disability,and the promptness of payments. Information onwhat happens to the families of workers who arekilled or permanently disabled by work-connectedinjury or illness would also help in judging theadequacy of the program.
4
The Quality
Traditionally, manpower problems have beendefined and measured mainly in the economicterms of employment, unemployment, and in-come. The gradual refinement of these eco-nomic measures has sharpened the objectives ofpolicy and program planning. Still largely absentin the evaluation of manpower problems, however,is an adequate assessment of the many other dimen-sions of work and employment that affect workerwell-being.
This broad, more qualitative orientation re-quires attention not only to how well the economicsystem absorbs individuals into employment andmeets their financial needs, but also to the ade-quacy with which it satisfies quite different kindsof needsphysical, psychological, and social.These dimensions of employment are not easily de-fined or measured, but they are essential to a fullunderstanding of the conditions of work and howsatisfactory these are to workers.
Although no precise definition of the quality ofemployment will be attempted at this early stage,some essential features of the concept may benoted.
1. It is concerned primarily with the extent towhich employment satisfies the needs of the indivi-dual, rather than those of the employer and theeconomy generally. This is not to say that conflictbetween these different interests is inevitable; ob-viously there are many points of convergence. Butthe furtherance of worker interests and workersatisfactions stands as a legitimate social goal inits own right.
2. It requires that work and employment beviewed and evaluated in the total scheme of life,rather than in the isolation of the work environ-ment. An individual's experiences as a worker ob-viously have varied and complex interrelation-ships with his roles as family member, social parti-cipant, and political decisionmaker. And the avail-able data suggest that, while generally positive,the impact of employment experience on nonworklife can, under some circumstances, have pro-nounced negative effects. Thus, the quality of em-ployment has a major effect on the quality ofAmerican life in general.
3. It has two major dimensions which, althoughinterdependent, require separate consideration.
or Employment
The first relates to the deleterious effects of workexperience. The ways in which various forms andconditions of work adversely affect the physicalhealth of employees have long been recognized.Statistics on the incidence of occupational injuriesand illnesses testify to this negative aspect of em-ployment. But even here, the data are incomplete.Far greater attention must be given to the ways inwhich employment contributes to mental, as wellas physical, ill health."
The second dimension is the extent to which thequality of employment is, and can increasingly be-come, a truly positive and developmental experi-ence. The goals and functions of employmentshould go beyond the avoidance of poverty, inse-curity, and illness, and purposively and progres-sively advance worker well-beingin keepingwith the continuously rising aspirations and ex-pectations throughout our society.
The discussion and data that follow representonly a preliminary stage in the assessment of thequality of employment as thus outlined. In thisinitial effort, its evaluation is tentatively ap-proached from two important, though highly dif-ferent, points of view. First, there is a discussionof the psychological impact of workof the qual-ity of employment defined largely in terms ofworker feelings and attitudes. And second, prog-ress in developing labor standards protections isbriefly considered. Broadly interpreted, thesestandards reflect society's judgments regardingaspects of employment that are so crucial or sopotentially damaging to workers as to requirevoluntarily agreed-upon or legal protections.
PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF WORK
No existing pleasure serves az a fully satisfac-tory index of the far-reaching psychological andsocial consequences of employment. The concept ofjob satisfaction, however, is a logical starting pointin the development of such an index. In approach-
20The impetus for a closer examination of the mental healtheffects of employment may come partly from Workmen's Compen-sation decisions. In what is generally regarded as the landmarkcase, the Supreme Court of Michigan held that a worker's emo-tional disability was caused by the cumulative effects of hisemployment and was compensable ,under Michigan law [Carterv. General Motors, 106 N.W. 2d (Mich.) 105].
47
ing the extensive body of existing data on job at-titudes, one might begin by asking what kinds ofsummary judgments can be made about the psy-chological condition of American workers gen-erally. Does the evidence suggest that gains ineconomic well-being have been matched by equallysatisfactory advances in psychological well-being?Or do the data point to an opposite conclusion,with large numbers of people finding little mean-ing and satisfaction in work?
Regrettably, existing data cannot yet provideanswers to questions such as these for the workingpopulation as a whole. Investigations of job satis-faction have thus far been limited, with few ex-ceptions, to fairly narrow studies of restrictedsamples of occupational and industry groups atsingle points in time, conducted by individual re-searchers or private organizations 30 The FederalGovernment has begun only recently to extend itsrange of concern to the assessment of work atti-tudes. Consequently, present conclusions aboutwork attitudes must be based largely on summariesof small-scale investigations.31
There are, of course, no absolute standards ofjudgment that can be used to assess the psycholog-ical condition of the labor force or, indeed, of anygroupand thus no basis for declarations that agiven level of job satisfaction is good or bad,acceptable or unacceptable. What is justified, andindeed crucial, in assessing the quality of workare judgments of a comparative nature.
If satisfaction in work is generally agreed to bea positive value in our society, evidence of its im-provement or deterioration over time is of obvioussignificance. The piecemeal character of job satis-faction research makes detection of trends in thisarea very difficult. So far as is known, only oneeffort has been made to chart the course of satisfac-tion and dissatisfaction over the years,32 and un-fortunately its limitations are great.
A fairly notable decrease in job dissatisfactionsince 1946-47 seems to be indicated by this one
ao Illustrative of the kind of research that promises to help fillthe void is a "Study of the Impact of Changes in Machine Tech-nology on a Cross-Section of the Labor Force" (Ann Arbor,Mich. : University of Michigan, for the U.S. Department of Labor,Manpower Administration, in process) ; Also, a "LongitudinalStudy of Labor Force Behavior" (Columbus, Ohio: Ohio StateUniversity, for the U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Admin-istration, in process).
al See, for example, Frederick Herzberg and others, Job Atti-tudes: Review o, Research and Opinion (Pittsburgh : Psychologi-cal Service of Pittsburgh, 1957) ; also, Victor H. Vroom, Workand Motivation (New York : John Wiley and eons, Inc., 1964).
82 See the annual reports on job satisfaction research in thePersonnel and Guidance Journal.
48
CHART 11
Frequency of job dissatisfaction appearsto have declined over the past
two decades.
Median percent of dissatisfied workers30
L20 r -
r
1956 1959 1962 1and964
1965
Note: Each median percent represents an average compiled fromstudies on job dissatisfaction conducted by various researcherswithin a year or other time period.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, based on data from Personnel andGuidance Journal, 1946-1965.
studya compilation of the findings of independ-ent research studies. From a post-World War IIhigh of 21 percent, the median percent dissatisfiedgradually diminished to 12 percent in 1953 and hassince remained at about 12 to 13 percent. (Seechart 11.)
The serious technical limitations of these datashould be borne in mind, however. What indeedseems to have been an impressive long-run changefor the better in level of job satisfaction may alsoreflect differences in the makeup of respondentgroups, in research design, and in techniques ofmeasurement. Furthermore, a persistent samplingbias is possible, since surveys of employee attitudesare most likely to be conducted in organizationswith enlightened managements and where there isno detectable evidence of serious discontent. Thus,cautious interpretation of the findings is in order.
The danger of excessively broad generalizationsabopt levels of job satisfaction should be empha-sized also. Overall judgments about the psycho-logical state of the work force tend to obscure crit-
ical differences among various occupational andother population subgroups. As will be illustratedlater in this section, in a work force as heteroge-neous as that of the United States, work attitudesand job satisfaction can be as varied as the tasksperformed and the conditions under which theyare carried out.
Occupational Differences in Job Satisfaction
The higher an individual's position in the occu-pational hierarchy, the more likely he is to exper-ience satisfaction in his employment. Regardingthis not-unexpected conclusion, the findings of jobsatisfaction studies have been consistent and gen-erally unequivocal. Satisfaction is greater amongwhite-collar than blue-collar workers as a whole,and typically is found to be highest among pro-fessionals and businessmen and lowest among un-skilled laborers."
ISS This general relationship between satisfaction and occupa-tional level is confirmed both by independent studies of limitedoccupational samples and by the few broad-gage, multioccupa-tional studies thus far undertaken. See Herzberg and others, op.cit. ; Robert Blauner, "Work Satisfaction and Industrial Trendsin Modern Society," Labor and Trade Unionism, ed. WalterGalenson and Seymour Martin Lipset (New York : John Wileyand Sons, Inc., 1960), pp. 339-360 ; Harold Wilensky, "Varietiesof Work Experience," Man in a World at Work, ed. Henry Borow(Boston : Houghton-Mifflin, 1964), pp. 125-154.
Li Gerald Gurin, Joseph Veroff, and Sheila Feld, Americana ViewTheir Mental Health (New York : Basic Books, Inc., 1960).
In a recent national survey," for example, thehighest proportion (42 percent) of very satisfiedworkers was in the professional-technical classifi-cation and the lowest (13 percent) in the unskilledlaborer group. (See table 10.) Surprisingly, how-ever, the clerical workers surveyed expressed some-what less satisfaction with their employment thandid semiskilled manual workers. And to a lesser ex-tent, the same was true of sales workers. Moreover,expressions of ambivalent feelings or dissatisfac-tion by these two white-collar groups were almostidentical in frequency to those of unskilled work-ers.
These findings may well reflect the changingcharacter of bath blue- and white-collar employ-ment. They also suggest that the viewpoint ofmany clerical and sales workers toward their jobsis becoming more akin to that of so-called blue-collar workers than to that of professional andmanagerial personnel.
The relatively high level of satisfaction ex-pressed by farmers is another notable finding ofthis survey. Instead of the discontent that mighthave been anticipated in view of the downwardtrend of agricultural employment, somewhat theopposite was found. Two possible interpreta-tions may be. relevant. First, a selection factor isprobably at work, since many of the persons mostdissatisfied with farming are likely to have mi-grated to urban areas. Sacond, in view of the tie-
TABLE 10. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OCCUPATIONAL STATUS AND JOB SATISFACTION FOR EMPLOYEDMEN
I Data are based on responses to the question: "If you could go back to theage of 15 and start life over again, would you choose a different trade or occupa-tion?" Although this is not phrased as a direct question about level of jobsatisfaction, responses can clearly be interpreted as expressions of contentmentwith present occupational status.
ins between farm work and farm life, the favorableattitudes of respondents may reflect a broad pref-erence not merely for farm employment but alsofor the general life style it involves.
Although efforts to measure relative levels of jobsatisfaction and dissatisfaction have usually fo-cused on occupational groups, job attitudes may beanalyzed also in relation to the broader industrialcontext in which the job is performed. A recentlypublished study of worker alienation showsstriking contrasts in subjective reactions to em-ployment in different types of industrial settings.One of the sources drawn upon in this study wasa Roper survey 36 of the job attitudes of factoryworkers in 16 manufacturing industries. (Seetable 11.)
65 Robert Blauner, Alienation and Freedom (Chicago : The Uni-versity of Chicago Press, 1964). The concept of alienation is by nomeans identical to that of Job satisfaction, but like satisfaction(or, more appropriately, dissatisfaction) it has utility insummarizing subjective reactions to work.
31 Reported in Fortune, May and June 1947.
50
Nora: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.Souncx: Robert Blauner, Alienation and Freedom (Chicago: The University
of Chicago Press, 1061), p. 202.
The fact that roughly 3 out of every 5 workerssurveyed wished they "had it to do over again" isin itself an impressive finding, but even more re-vealing are the exceedingly wide differences inattitude among workers in the various industries.The proportion of workers desiring different occu-pations was lowest (36 percent) in the printingindustry, and double that figure (71 percent) inthe leather, sawmill, and oil refining industries. Inthe other 12 industries covered, the percentagesof respondents expressing regrets about their occu-pations were distributed fairly evenly betweenthese two extremes.
Although these survey data are now more thantwo decades old, they are no less useful in illustrat-ing the differential impact of a variety of em-ployment experiences. At the same time, it mustbe recognized that what was true in 1947 cannotbe extrapolated to 1968. The need, then, is clearlyfor more up-to-date information of this generaltype.
F
r,
Factors in Job Satisfaction
The relative importance of different factors injob satisfaction and dissatisfaction is found to varyalso by occupational group. What individuals per-ceive as satisfying or dissatisfying is necessarilydetermined by their values, needs and motives, andexpectations, as well as by the objective featuresof their working environment. Consequently, dif-ferent groups may have quite different reactionsto the same set of job circumstances.
This is illustrated by a recent study of the workmotivations of members of an urban population 37When asked to rate six employment factors inorder of importance, the workers gave responsesthat reveal marked. differences among occupationalgroups. (See table 12.)
By and large, workers in white-collar categoriesattached greater significance to the intrinsic fac-tors related to the work itself, while blue-collarworkers placed comparatively greater stress onfactors pertaining to the context in which workis performedextrinsic factors. Once again, how-ever, there were unanticipated findings with re-spect to occupational differences. The factors mostoften selected by the lower level white-collar
37 Richard Centers and Daphne E. Buget. tai, "Intrinsic and Ex-trinsic Job Motivations Among Different Segments of the Work-ing Population," Journal of Applied Psychology, June 1966, pp.193-197.
groups (clerical and sales) more nearly resemblethe choices of skilled blue-collar workers thanthose of the higher level white-collar workers. Thelong-standing tendency to use "collar-color" as themost fundamental criterion dividing workers inthe occupational structure is challenged by thesefindings. The relevance of this broad dichotomy topresent-day employment is doubtful. The meaningof jobs, in terms of both tasks performed and theirsignificance to workers, can no longer be easily in-ferred on the basis of traditional occupationallabels.
Compensation is clearly revealed as one of thechief factors in worker motivation. All groups ex-cept the professional-managerial classification at-tached the greatest importance to pay. On theother hand, the security betar ranked last amongthe six listed, except in the case of semiskilled andunskilled workers. But even for these groups, se-curity was judged much less important than pay,and no more important than interesting work andthe congeniality of coworkers.
This kind of data requires cautious interpreta-tion. The differences in importance allotted to var-ious aspects of employment conceivably reflectbasic psychological differences stemming fromdistinctive conditions of life. Self-expression, forexample, may be given greater emphasis in the cul-ture of the middle-class white-collar worker than
TABLE 12. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT JOB FACTORS TO EMPLOYED ADULTS
Occupation Number
Percent specifyingintrinsic factors
Percent specifyingextrinsic factors
Interestingwork
Use ofskill,
talent
Feeling ofsatisfaction Pay Security Coworkers
Total white-collar 400 65 57 58 62 23 35Professional and managerial 217 68 64 68 59 16 25Clerical and sales 183 62 48 46 66 31 46
NOTE: Percentages for each occupational group add to 300 percent becauserespondents selected factors first, second, and third in importance. Detailmay not add to totals duo to rounding.
SOURCE: Based on responses of a selected cross section of employed adults
(excluding self-employed) in Greater Los Angeles, reported in RichardCenters and Daphne E. Bugental, "Intrinsic and Extrinsic Yob MotivationsA.mong'Different Segments of the Working Population," Journal of AppliedPsychology, Juno 1060, p. 195.
51
in that of the industrial worker.38 On the otherhand, the relative importance assigned to differentwork dimensions may be more reflective of the ex-tent to which worker needs and expectations aresatisfied or unsatisfied at the time of questioning.If wages, for example, are not sufficient to providean adequate level of physical and material com-fort, self-expression would probably tend to haverelatively little incentive value. Man may not liveby bread alone, but the lack of it can surely pre-vent focusing upon less tangible features of lifeand work."
Although there is no evidence of a fixed orderingof work factors as determinants of work satisfac-tion within any given occupational group,413 theredoes appear to be some relationship among the var-ious employment dimensions." This interrelated-ness may arise from an individual's tendency to re-spond similarly to different aspects of his job, or itmay be that an occupational role that affords onekind of satisfaction provides other kinds of gratifi-cation as well. A job that calls for the exercise ofconsiderable skill or talent, for example, is alsolikely to provide high wages, a good measure ofjob security, and more than minimally adequateworking conditions.
It seems clear from the wide divergences shownby different groups and within each group that anyfactor of employment may serve to gratify or frus-trate worker needs and desires and that no singledimension of employment can be regarded as thevital one However, more evidence is needed toshow how each of the several facets of work ex-perience contributes to both the positive and nega-tive attitudes of members of different occupational
sa Some evidence bearing on cultural differences in work valuesis to be found in a recent study of "underprivileged" workers.When participants in an MDTA program were asked to rank 16motivational factors in terms of importance, a few notable differ-ences between Negro and white subsamples were obtained. Onthe whole, however, the two rank orderings were quite similar.See Joseph E. Champagne and Donald C. King, "Job SatisfactionAmong Underprivileged Workers," Personnel and Guidance Jour-nal, January 1967, pp. 429-434.
*The concept of need-hierarchy, which holds that the relativeunfulfillment of more basic needs precludes preoccupation with/so-called "higher order" needs, is relevant here. See AbrahamMaslow, "A Theory of Human Motivation," Psychological Review,July 1943, pp. 370-390.
40 Indeed, it has been theorized that satisfaction and dissatis-faction are not on a single continuum and that the factors con-tributing to one are not the same as those contributing to theother. See Frederick Herzberg, Bernard Mausner, and BarbaraSnyderman, The Motivation to Work (New York : John Wiley andSons, Inc., 1959). However, evidence bearing on this "motivation-hygiene theory" is by no means clear cut. See, for example, RobertHouse and Lawrence Wigdor, "Herzberg's Dual-Factor Theory ofJob Satisfaction and Motivation : A Review of the Evidence anda Criticism," Personnel Psychology, Winter 1967, pp. 309-389.
42 Vroom, op. cit.
52
groups, with a view to determining the significanceof these factors in broad social and economicterms.
A recent investigation of shift work 42 illustrateswhat is probably a more fruitful approach to anal-ysis of the factors affecting particular groups ofworkers. This study revealed that "odd-hour"work schedules can have a pronounced effect notonly on the job satisfaction of workers but also onmany other facets of their general well-beingphysical, psychological, and social. The problemsthese workers face in adapting to a society wheresocial, recreational, and cultural activities aregeared largely to daytime working schedules areobviously serious and widespread. Although thereare no available data that permit the plotting oftrends in the prevalence of shift work, it seemslikely that such factors as changes in technologyand the growth of service occupations point to thescheduling of work as a problem of growing con-cern.
When the factor of ability or skill usage issingled out for special consideration, the useful-ness of examining each of the specific features ofemployment becomes clear. In a recent examina-tion of the factors underlying differences in jobsatisfaction, opportunity for the use of skills wasfound to be the factor most successfully differ-entiating groups at different levels of overall satis-faction." Almost 80 percent of the low-satisfac-tion group but only 40 percent of the high-satis-faction group expressed negative feelings aboutopportunities to use their skills. Similarly, whenthe mental health of a group of industrial work-ers was the subject of a research inquiry, feelingsabout the use of skills was found to be the factormost closely related to differences in this meas-ure of general well-being."
While this finding has great significance in it-self, its meaning is brought out even more fullyin the context of present concern about under-utilization of workers. In the absence of any ob-jective way of assessing the extent to which ',fork-ors' abilities are underused or misused in theirjobs, it seems quite reasonable to make at leasttentative judgments about this on the basis of theworkers' own subjective estimates. For that mat-
42 Paul Mott and others, Shift Work: The Social, Psychological,and Physical Consequences (Ann Arbor, Mich. : The University ofMichigan Press, 1005).
4 Norman M. Bradburn and David Caplovitz, Reports onHappiness (Chicago Aldine Publishing Co., 1905).
44 Arthur Kornhauser, Mental Health of the Industrial Worker(Now York : John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1965).
TABLE 13. PERCENT OF WORKERS WHO HAVE HIGH MENTAL HEALTH, 1 FOR SPECIFIED AGE ANDOCCUPATIONAL GROUPS
A
Occupational level
Percent of young workers withhigh mental health
Percent of middle-aged workerswith high mental health
1"High" mental health represents the upper one-third of all workers on ageneral measure based on six component indexes.
SOURCE: Based on data from sample of 208 mama workers employed by
ter, if the major focus of manpower concern ison worker well-being, the subjective estimate maywell be the most relevant one.
A still more basic question that might be askedis : How do work and nonwork activities compareas sources of worker satisfaction ? Although fewstudies of worker satisfaction have sought infor-mation bearing on this question, the findings of arecent survey of government employees pointstrongly to the centrality of employment in thetotal life context.45 On the average, both blue-and white-collar respondents considered their jobsfar more important to feelings of satisfaction ordissatisfaction than three other major facets oflife (recreation, education, and ahurch).
Job Satisfaction and Overall Well-Being
If the quality of work is to be a useful concept,its development must involve recognition thatwork and employment experience cannot be as-sessed adequately apart from other life experi-ences. Although job feelings may be a focal point,it is clear that the broader significance of workerattitudes and job satisfaction will be revealed onlyas their interrelationships with other personal andsocial factors are traced. However, there are asyet few data dealing with the relationships be-tween work and nonwork attitudesbetween sat-isfaction with employment conditions and satis-
43 Frank Friedlander, "Importance of Work Versus NonworkAmong Socially and Occupationally Stratified Groups," Journalof Applied Psychology, December 1966, pp. 437-441.
03-459 0 - 66 - 6
automotive manufacturing plants in metropolitan Detroit reported in ArthurKornhauser, Mental Health of the Industrial Worker (New York: john Wileyand Sons, Inc. 1085), p. 87.
faction with other facets of life." This dearthof information reflects the fact that job attituderesearch has been, for the most part, conductedby or within business enterprises, usually with theobject of contributing to personnel efficiency. Butthere are fortunately a few notable exceptions.
Striking relationships between job satisfactionand mental health are shown, for example, by thestudy of Detroit industrial workers." (See table13.) Within each occupational (skill) level sam-pled, and among both younger and older workers,those who expressed above-average job satisfac-tion were also judged to have higher levels of men-tal health. Thus, 52 percent of the young, semi-skilled workers who were above average in jobsatisfaction had high mental health, as comparedwith 14 percent of those below average in jobsatisfaction.
The close tie-ins between occupational or socio-economic level, job satisfaction, and mental healthare further illustrated by the findings of a large-scale inquiry into the relationships between mentaldisorder and the social environment of an urbancommunity Among workers of high socioeco-nomic status (SES), more than '15 percent indi-
41 See Kornhauser, op. cit. Kornhauser found positive, thoughmoderate, relationships between job satisfaction and satisfactionswith family and home, leisure time, and community. Althoughthe direction and degree of rdationdhips do not permit firm con-clusions about job feelings determining feelings in other spheresof life, they do east serious doubt on the validity of a contentionthat those who lack satisfaction in work can somehow com-pensate for this lack in nonwork activities.
Kornhauser, op. cit.48 Thomas S. Langner and Stanley T. Michael, Life Stress and
Mental Health (New York : The Free Press of Glencoe, 190,3).
53
cated very much satisfaction with their occupa-tions, compared with just 43 percent of the lowsocioeconomic group. Conversely, at the lower endof the satisfaction scale, more than two and one-half times as large a proportion of low SES asof high SES respondents liked their work not somuch or not at all. (See table 14.)
But the differences in mental health among peo-ple at different levels of occupational satisfactionare the most significant findings of this study.In general, the lower the level of job satisfaction,the greater the mental health risk." Those who areleast able to experience gratification in employ-ment are also apt to face difficulty in achieving asatisfactory state of mental health.
The relationship between job satisfaction and"happiness" appears as direct as that between suchsatisfaction and mental health, according to a sur-vey in four communities." Respondents scoringhigh on a job satisfaction index were far more like-ly to describe themselves as "very happy" thanthose scoring low on the index (56 percent and 13percent, respectively). This relationship holds
as Although not all differences were found to be statisticallysignificant, the trends were, with limited exception, consistent andin the "right" direction. To be noted also is the tendency fordifferences in mental health ratings to be reduced as satisfactionis controlled.
Bradburn and Caplovitz, op. cit.
true not only at the extremes of the satisfactionscale, but in the middle group as well. (See table15.)
Job satisfaction also appeared to be directly re-lated to and influenced by broader socioeconomicconditions in each of the four communities (twodepressed, one improving, and one prosperous).Men in the lower socioeconomic group were moredissatisfied with their jobs in the prosperous com-munities than those in the same low group in thecomparatively depressed communities. Depriva-tion is relative as well as absolute-the same condi-tions of employment may have considerably differ-ent meaning, depending on the available bases forcomparison. In other words, low wages may not beas great a cause "or dissatisfaction in a depressedcommunity, where unemployment is substantialand wages generally low, as are the same low wagesin an area where there is greater affluence visiblenearby-as, for example, in central city ghettossurrounded by affluent suburbs.
Taken together, these data indicate convincinglythat job feelings, reflecting the gratifications anddeprivations of the work situation, bear a pro-nounced relationship to broader psychologicalwell-being. Job satisfaction measures will clearlyserve as a good beginning point in the develop-
TABLE 14. JOB SATISFACTION AND MENTAL HEALTH RATING 1 OF MEN AND NEVER-MARRIED WOMENAT DIFFERENT SOCIOECONOMIC LEVELS 2
Very much..._ .... 57.5 0.45 43.0 0.58 51.6 0.46 75. 0 0.39Fairly much--..... 27.9 . 59 36. 0 . 57 32.9 . 50 15.9 . 49Not so much.-_ _ 8. 1 . 52 12.5 .03 8.4 . 58 4. 1 . 52Not at _ _ 3.9 . 67 4. 1 . 68 5.9 . 65 1.9 . 71Don't know, no answer.. 2.6 IN CM 0 0 .1,111. Ile .1 4.4 ea Mr OS 1.2 .113 2.5 57, 411. CZ MI Imit
I The larger the rating, the worse the mental health of the group. Theaverage rating is by definition .60.
2 Based on occupation, education, income, and rent.Non: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
54
Sounez: Based on data from a random sample of individuals, aged 20 to59, selected from dwelling units in midtown Manhattan, reported in ThomasS. Langnor and Stanley T. Michael, Life Siren and Mental Health (New York:The Free Press of Glencoe, 1003), p. 309.
TABLE 15. JOB SATISFACTION AND LEVEL OFHAPPINESS OF EMPLOYED MEN
[Percent distribution]
Level ofhappiness 1
Job satisfaction index 2
Low Medium High
Total: Number_ _ _ _ 127 153 72
Percent 100 100 100
Very happy 13 36 56
Pretty happy 70 59 42
Not too happy 16 5 1
I Respondents' answers to the question: "Taking all things together, howwould you say things are these dayswould you say you are very happy,pretty happy, or not too happy?"
2 Index combining satisfaction with different aspects of work. The basis fordividing respondents into the three groups is not specified.
NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to round'ng.
$ouacz: Based on data from a sample of employed men, aged 26 to 49, infour Illinois communities, reported In Norman M. Bradburn and DavidCaplovitz, Reports on Happiness (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Co., 1465),
P. 37.
ment of more general measures of the quality ofemployment.
Development Needs
Although the information now available clearlypermits tentative conclusions, it does not justifyconfident judgments about the psychological im-pact of work on broad population groups or onchanges in job satisfaction over time. Few agen-cies outside the Federal Government can engagein the broad survey activities needed to producereliable and comprehensive data. Existing data-gathering systems might well be reviewed now todetermine what modifications are required to elicit,on a continuing basis, comprehensive data on theattitudes of workers toward their occupationalsituation generally and toward specific facets .oftheir employment. Such data would be of inesti-mable value in gaging the character and magnitudeof changes in the quality of work for the laborforce us a whole and its principal subgroups.
In addition to fairly 'won d and direct measuresof the psychological impact of employment ob-tainable through labor force surveys, far morecomplete information about specific conditions ofemployment is much needed. Comprehensive data
about such factors as the number and schedulingof working hours, vacation and holiday provisions,retirement arrangements, and participation intraining and other developmental activities canhelp in evaluating the individual and social signifi-cance of different conditions of employment.
Indicative of the value of focusing on particularfeatures of employment is the study of shift workalready cited.51 By both confirming and extendingthe findings of earlier investigations, this researchseems to justify some fairly confident conclusionsabout the negative effects of different shift ar-rangements. Unfortunately, however, the absenceof comprehensive data on the prevalence and inci-dence of various patterns of working hours pre-cludes an adequate assessment of the pervasivenessof shift-related problems. With the collection ofcomparable information on this and other signifi-cant aspects of working conditions, it should bepossible to develop a reasonably comprehensiveset of measures of the overall context of work.
If meaningful and generally acceptable indexesof the quality of employment are to be developed,however, the current limited efforts to refine con-cepts and measures, and to expand research on thecomplex interrelationships among the characteris-tics of the individual, his job, and his environmentmust be greatly intensified. Efforts to date haveserved the more limited objectives of employersand academic scholars better than the muchbroader and more stringent requirements of na-tional planning.
Largely for this reason, a wide range of basicquestions now needs to be translated into research.There is, for example, far too little informationavailable to make firm judgments about differencesin the meaning of work for various segments ofthe population, particularly ghetto residents andothers who have had only limited employment op-portunity. Nor is there yet a sufficient factual basisfor conclusions about the work values and expec-tations of youth entering the labor force and howthey are subsequently molded by employment ex-periences. Research on such questions is beginning,but for the present, at least, they are largely im-ponderable. A much broader data-gathering effortwill be required to provide the amount and typesof information in this area essential to effectivepolicy and program planning.
In the long run, it is hoped that ways also can befound to overcome the national propensity to de-
sr Mott and others, op. cit.
55
fine as problems and regard as progress only thoseconditions that lend themselves to quantitativemeasurement. The goodness of life of individuals,and the planning designed to improve life, mustencompass dimensions not amenable to precisemeasurement.
LABOR STANDARDS PROTECTION
Longstanding recognition that work can, undercertain conditions, have negative consequences forthe worker has led, over the years, to the develop-ment and application of a variety of protectivelabor standards designed to cope with specific em-ployment hazards. These standardswhether de-fined by laws, collective bargaining agreements,or simply generally accepted practice by employ-ershave protected the welfare of individualworkers, and have also been an essential compo-nent of the Nation's broad effort to enhance thewell-being of its workers and their dependents.
The protections afforded workers who sufferlow wages and loss of income because of unem-ployment, illness, or accident have been discussedearlier in this chapter. Other hazardi a workermay meet include unreasonably long hours or un-safe working conditions, nonpayment of wages,lack of compensation and medical care in case ofillness or injury, work at too early an age, unsat-isfactory employer-employee relationships, ex-ploitation by private employment agencies, or dis-crimination because of race, age, sex, or otherconditions.
The development of labor standards, as a pro-tection against these hazards, has been a continu-ous rather than a static process. Their evolutionhas reflected changes in technology and other fac-tors in the working environment and also an im-proved understanding of how working conditionsaffect the worker.,
Both the Federal and State governments haveestablished labor standards by law and adminis-trative regulation. Federal legislation appliesequally to workers within the coverage of the law,throughout the Nation. Under 'State legislation,however, there are inevitable differences in pro-visions from one part of the country to another,affecting both workers and employers. Employ-ment conditions and problems vary greatlyamong the Statesnotably between those highlyindustrialized and those still largely agricultural.
56
In some States labor unions have organized largeproportions of the workers, with consequent im-provement in working conditions. In others, suchorganizations are weak, and their efforts to im-prove working conditions have been less effectual.
This section attempts to assess the extent ofprotection workers may count upon under Statelaws, by no means an easy task. Evaluation oflabor legislation does not lend itself readily toquantification. Differing premises and judgmentsare bound to enter into appraisal of the quality oflaws. Nevertheless, some consensus has devel-oped as to what constitutes desirable legislation invarious areas of public concern. The basic recom-mended standards reflect both State and Federalexperience. They represent the result of extensiveconsultation and exchange of expert judgment atboth the technical and policymaking levels.
The need for positive, cooperative action by em-ployers to improve the quality of employment mustbe emphasized also. More systematic exchanges ofexperience and a new kind of cooperative seareh-ing for good solutions to labor standards problemsare neededforward steps which ordinarily can-not and should not involve legislative prescription.
The Labor Standards Index
While recognizing the limitations of any effortto attach a numerical value to the status of laborlaws, the Department of Labor has undertakenan experimental effort to develop a Labor Stand-ards Index that measures the extent to which Statelaws approximate the recommended standards."The index measures only the provisions of thelaws, not performance. Federal legislation is notincluded. Several major areas of Federal legisla-tion have, however, been discussed in earlier sec-tions of this chapter (unemployment insurance,OASDHI, and the minimum wage standards ofthe Fair Labor Standards Act).
The Labor Standards Index covers eight majorareas in which States have adopted protectivelegislation. As of 1965, several States still lackedlegislation in some of the areas. Fifteen States, forexample, had no minimum wage laws; 13 did not
53 The index was constructed for eight selected subject fields, byassigning weights to major provisions of the relevant standardsand providing partial credit (against a maximum score of 100)based on the extent to which a given legislative provision met therecommended standard. The index included a Stateby-State scorefor cash of the eight labor standards, a national score for eachstanddrd, and a composite index for the combined standards in the50 States.
provide protection against discrimination becauseof race, color, religion, or national origin; 28 didnot protect older workers against discriminationbecause of age. And varying numbers of Stateshad failed to meet the basic standards in otherareas.
The average scale for all States on the LaborStandards Index was 53 when the index was con-structed in 1965indicating a gap of nearly 50 per-cent between the laws then in effect and the rec-ommended standards. The variation was wide,ranging from a score of only 15 for one Stateto a high of 90 for another. A comparison of thenational average ratings for each of the eight laborstandards areas also showed great differences. (Seetable 16.)
The regional variation was similarly wide. Ofthe 25 States with scores below the average, onlyone was in the Northeast, whereas seven were inthe North Central region, 13 in the South, andfour in the West.
For the most part the low-ranking States wereeither those not yet highly industrialized or thosein which industrialization is only now proceedingat a fairly rapid rate. With the recognized advan-tages of industrialization comes realization of theworker needs it brings with it and growing publicsupport for meeting these needs through improvedlabor laws and standards. Progress in this areahas therefore traditionally followed upon indus-trial development. It may be assumed that laborand other support for improved standards in
TABLE 16. AVERAGE RATING ON LABOR STANDARDSINDEX) BY LABOR STANDARDS AREA, 1965
Labor standards area
Number ofStates'
with lawsin specified
areas
Averagerating ofall Stateson index
Occupational safety and health...... 50 64Child labor 50 59Workmen's compensation.. 50 54Wage payment and wage collec-
newly industrializing States will help these Statescatch up with those where industrialization oc-curred earlier.
What the lack of protection means to individualworkers cannot be measured, but it is possible toindicate how many have the least protection.Nearly 40 percent of the country's nonagriculturalworkers were employed in the States that fellbelow the average rating (53) on the index. Thefollowing tabulation shows the distribution ofworkers among States with high and low ratings :
Rating of Stale on LaborStandards Index
Numberof States
Percent distribution ofnonagricultural employment
Total 50 100
Less than 25 2 225 to 49 20 2850 to 74 19 3475 and over 9 36
The States with the greatest deficiencies in theirlabor laws also tend to be those where workers aremost disadvantaged in other ways. Of the 23 Stateswhere the incidence of family poverty was greaterthan the national average in 1959 (the latest datefor which such information is available), 20 rankedamong the lowest on the Labor Standards Index. Itis significant also that States with below averagescores on the index were also below average inunion membership.
Since the Labor Standards Index was con-structed in 1965, several States have adopted newlegislation in one or another of the eight areas in-cluded in the index. An even greater number havepassed amendments to their labor standardslegislation.
A full evaluation of the new legislation andamendments has not been possible as yet. Whenthe progress made by many States in updatingtheir laws is reflected in the index, this will un-doubtedly raise the average score somewhat, andalso bring a few States formerly at the low end ofthe scale into the middle or upper range. However,many of the States that have improved their lawsalready had high LSI scores in 1965. Relative dif-ferences in labor standards protection among theStates probably remain much as they were 3 yearsago.
Needed Improvements in the Index
The Labor Standards Index is admittedly arough measure of legislative adequacy. It has ear-
57
tain shortcomings which can be eliminated by fur-ther refinement. Perhaps the most serious is thefact that it does not incorporate weighting for therelative importance of different kinds of laborlaws, and so fails to indicate where action is mostneeded.
Since labor standards are in constant change, re-flecting changing conditions, the first and mosturgent need is to reassess constantly not only theindex itself, but also the whole basis of the index,to make sure that both are up to date. Changingtechnology, growing recognition of workers' needs,and increased understanding of the psychologicalas well as the physical factors in well-being de-mand constant, watchful care. In addition to serv-ing as a measurement of the current situation, theindex has great possibility as an indicator of fu-ture program direction.
The index should look beyond the laws. More
58
knowledge of actual working conditions is essen-tial to the development of an adequate indicatorof progress toward social and individual well-being. What are the most important labor stand-ards? How are social, economic, and other changesaffecting them? Do presently accepted labor stand-ards adequately reflect current thinking? What arethe actual consequences for workers of inadequatelabor standards protection ?
The LSI as presently constructed does not meas-ure the impact of labor laws for the workers con-cerned. A law, however good, if not enforced or ifpoorly administered, has little or no protectiveeffect. In the final analysis, the adequacy of laborstandards legislation must be measured by the ex-tent to which it meets the current needs of theworkers it was designed to help. Assessment of ad-ministration is an essential component of an im-proved index.
Equality of Opportunity
Equality of opportunity is a goal which mustbe sought in every aspect of our national life. It isone which has been denied all too often by dis-crimination on the basis of race, color, sex, age,religion, national origin, lack of education, or evenlocality. This section, however, is concerned onlywith equality of opportunity for ethnic minoritygroupsin jobs, earnings, and the chance for ad-vancement and a satisfying work life.
The legal framework for rapid implementationof equal opportunity, presumed the birthright ofevery American, was set by the Civil Rights Act of1964 and related legislation. Together with courtdecisions and executive orders, and supported bythe civil rights movement, these laws gave hope ofrapid improvement in the social and economicsituation of ethnic; minorities, including MexicanAmericans, Puerto Ricans, and American Indians,as well as Negroes.
The complexity and the interaction of the var-ious manifestations of discrimination andsegrega-tion have become increasingly apparent, however,as efforts to implement the Civil Rights Act haveproceeded. It is now clear that occupational ad-vancement may be handicapped as much by dis-crimination in education and training earlier in theworker's life as by bias in hiring and promotion,and that the available jobs are often geograph-ically inaccessible to the poor in both central cityghettos and rural areas. It has become evident, too,that discrimination and segregation can raise psy-chological 'barriers that need to be resolved beforeminority manpower can compete for jobs on anequal basis.
Thus, in measuring progress toward equal eco-nomic opportunity, indicators such as employmentand unemployment are not enough. One must lookalso to educational trends and patterns of segrega-tion in education and housing, and to changes inincome lev -As. Rising income not only gives evi-dence of progress toward a better life but also re-flects the ability of minority families to give theirchildren the education and training needed forfull participation in employment opportunities.
Furthermore, progress toward equality of op-portunity cannot be assessed merely in terms ofadvances made by the minority groups. The gap ineconomic status between them and the white ma-
jority must be closed. This is a crucial objective,but not an easy one to reach in view of the rapideconomic advances made by the majority.
NEGROES
The Negro population has made substantialgains in employment, education, and income dur-ing the 1960's measured in absolute terms. Therelative Negro-white gap has narrowed in someareas but broadened in others.53
In interpreting this record, it is important tokeep in mind certain demographic handicaps tomore rapid upward movement. In 1966, more thanhalf the Negro population, double the proportionof whites, lived in the South, where educational at-tainment and average incomes are generally lowerthan in other regions. And although Negroes havebeen migrating from the rural South, much of thismovement has been into major industrial cities,where they have had difficult adjustment prob-lems, partly because of the shrinking employmentopportunities in unskilled manual jobs.
Employment and Unemployment
The number of employed nonwhite workers 54rose from 6.9 million to 8.0 million between 1960and 1967, an increase of 16 percent. During thesame period, employment of white workers roseby only 13 percent. (See table 17.)
Unemployment rates for nonwhite workers, asfor whites, have dropped since the early 1960's.Nevertheless, unemployment rate: for nonwhitesare still slightly more than twice those for whites(7.4 compared with 3.4 percent in 1967).
No inroads have been made into the extremelyserious problem of nonwhite teenage joblessness.(See chart 12.) While the unemployment rate for
53 See also the chapter on Trends in Employment and Unem-ployment for a discussion of recent developments in the employ-ment situation of nonwhite persons. For a more extensive dis-cussion, see Social and Economic Conditions of Negroes in theUnited States (Washington : U.S. Department of Labor, Bureauof Labor Statistics, and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau ofthe Census, October 1967), BLS Report No. 332 and CurrentPopulation Reports, Series P-23, No. 24. This report has bendrawn upon to a considerable extent in the present discussion.
54 Only limited data for Negroes are available. However, statis-tics for nonwhites generally reflect the conditions of Negroes,who represent 92 percent of all nonwhites.
59
TABLE 17. EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYED PERSONS,BY COLOR, 1960-67[Numbers in thousands]
white teenagers dropped as the economic climateimproved, among nonwhite teenagers the rate in1967 was actually higher than in 1960. One out ofevery four nonwhite teenagers was unemployed in1967, almost 21/2 times the proportion for whiteteenagers, whereas in 1960 the ratio was less than2 to 1. Furthermore, the Neighborhood YouthCorps and other recent programs have probablyhad more impact on unemployment among non-white teenagers. In the absence of these programsthe situation might well have been far worse.
Among older nonwhite workers, however, therate of joblessness has been reduced significantly.For married nonwhite men 20 years old and over,unemployment rates declined especially fast. Al-though the nonwhite rate is twice that for marriedwhite men, the differential is narrower than in1962 (when it was 21/2 times the rate for whites).(See chart 13.)
Occupational Changes
Substantial gains have 1,-en recorded also in theoccupational distribution of adult nonwhite work-ers. In the high-skill, high-status, high-paying oc-cupations, the percentage increase of nonwhiteworkers has exceeded that of white workers, with
60
most of the gainsaided by sustained economicgrowth and a tightening job marketoccurring inthe last few years. Thus, the occupational gap isnarrowing although slowly. (See table 18.)
The increase of nonwhite jobholders in profes-sional and clerical occupations was particularlysignificant, as way also their increase in skilledoccupations. Nonwhite employment gains in theseoccupations and in operative jobs in steel, auto-mobiles, and other durable goods manufacturingindustries where pay rates are high, accountedfor 900,000 of the 1 million added jobs for non-whites that developed from 1960 through 1966.However, the numbers and proportions of non-whites in these occupations were so small at the be-ginning of the decade that, despite these major ad-vances, almost 45 percent of the nonwhite menand 60 percent of the nonwhite women were em-ployed in service, laborer, and farm jobs in 1966more than double the proportions for whiteworkers.
Not measurable statistically, but important intheir implications for the future, are the break-throughs Negroes have made into many white-collar occupations previously closed to them, theopening up of more apprenticeship opportunities,the upgrading of Negroes employed in the FederalGovernment (which has been much more rapidthan for whites) , and similar manifestations ofprogress toward equality of occupational opportu-nity.
While it is difficult to determine the extent towhich job discrimination is responsible for theunequal occupational distribution of Negroes, orto measure trends in job discrimination, the up-ward movement of Negroes into the better payingoccupations would seem to reflect a lessening ofdiscrimination as well as the better educationalpreparation of young Negroes now entering thelabor force.
An analysis of compliance reports by the EqualEmployment Opportunity Commission, coveringessentially enicloyers of 100 or more workers, re-veals significant industry differences in the extentof minority employment. These data underrepre-sent agriculture, small business services, govern-ment, and nonprofit organizations, and overrepre-sent manufacturing generally, as well as certainspecific manufacturing industries. They do, never-theless, provide insight into minority employmentat the present time; they will also provide a meas-ure of change in the years to come.
According to the Commission's 1966 data, Ne-groes are generally concentrated in industrieswhere a large proportion of the jobs are in low-wage occupations. As higher paying jobs increasein an industry, the probability of Negro employ-ment in it is lowered. This phenomenon is moremarked for Negro men than for women. But forboth, employment relative to that of Anglos ismany times greater in low-wage than high-wageindustries.55 (See table 19.)
When the occupational position of Negroes inthe industries studied is compared with that ofwhite workers having the same amount of educa-tion, considerable discrimination is indicated. The
55 Data were gathered for the ethnic minorities. The term"Anglos" was used to distinguish whites who were members ofother than Spanish surname groups.
overall occupational position of Negro men wasestimated to be 23 percent below that of whites,with differences in educational attainment account-ing for a third of this difference (or perhaps asmuch as half if allowance is made for qualitativedifferences in education). The remaining differenceis largely attributable to anti-Negro bias.
It appears that, in the industries studied, occu-pational discrimination against Negro men in-creases in direct relation to the concentration ofNegroes in the industry, to the ratio of well-paidoccupations in the industry, to the level of educa-tion of the Negroes involved, and to the propor-tion of the industry's employment found in theSouth.
For Negro women the discrimination is morelimited, and they are not penalized as their educa-
CHART 12
Excessive unemployment rates for nonwhite teenagers show no improvement.
Unemployment rates
40.0
35.0
30.0
Nonwhite teenagers,(16-19) both sexes,
MaleNonwhite adults,
Female (O years and over)
1962 1963 1964
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
1965 1966 1967
61
CHART 13
Although the unemployment rate fornonwhites declined by more than half
between 1962 and 1967, it was stilltwice as high as for whites.
Unemployment rate of married men,2 0 years old and over10.0
8.0°%
6.0
4.0
2.0
White
Nonwhite
1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967.1
1/ Represents data for first 9 months.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
tional level rises. This apparently lesser discrimi-nation is due essentially to the much more limitedrange of occupations for women in industry, withunderrepresentation of Negro women concentratedin occupations.
The heavy overrepresentation of Negro malesin the low-wage industries indicates that, even ifthey were given equal opportunity to rise, promo-tion would promise only limited financial rewards.What is required to solve the problem is not onlyopportunity for occupational upgrading for Negromen in the industries where they are, but alsogreatly increased opportunities for entrance intoindustries with more high-paid, skilled jobs.
Potential Workers Not in the Labor Force
The proportion of men in the working ages whoneither work nor look for work is another indica-tor of inequality of opportunity, since discourage-ment in finding jobs is an important reason
62
for being outside the labor force (as indicatedearlier in this chapter). Nonwhite men are lesslikely to be in the work force than are whitemenexcept in age groups under 24 where thelonger school attendance of white youth out-weighs other factors affecting labor force partici-pation. Between 1960 and 1967 the proportion ofnonwhite men 25 to 64 years of age not in thelabor force rose from 73 to 91 per 1,000 people;among white men, the increase was lessfrom 47to 55.
Family Income
Average income remains much lower for Negrothan for white families, despite some narrowingof the differential.° Negro median family incomerepresented only 58 percent of the median forwhite families in 1966 compared with 54 percentin 1961.57
Most encouraging was the marked reduction inthe percentage of nonwhite families living in pov-erty. The nonwhite proportion below the povertylevel, however, was more than three times that forwhite families, just as it had been in 1960.
Another significant change was the relativelygreater proportion of nonwhite families movinginto the $7,000 and over income class. In 1960 al-most 21/2 times as large a proportion of white asnonwhite families were at this income level. Butin 1966 the proportion was slightly less than dou-ble. (See chart 14.) This indication of progress istempered, however, by the fact that only 12 per-cent of the nonwhite families in. this category hadincomes of $10,000 or over, in contrast to 30 per-cent of the white families.
Education
Prospects for raising the level of Negro life arerelated to progress in their educational achieve-ment, and substantial gains have been made in thisdirection. For young men 25 to 29 years of age thegap in years of school completed between non.-whites and whites has been reduced from 2 yearsin 12360 to 'a half year in 1966. It is also notable
56 For a discussion of the disparity in earnings between non-white and white workers that underlies these income differences,'Ace the discussion of Adequacy of Workers' Earnings earlier inthis chapter.
" Figures for Negro family income, as separate from all non-white, are available only from 1904.
that, between 1960 and 1965, the proportion ofNegro men 25 to 34 who graduated from collegealmost doubled; for Negro women therelative gainwas smaller but significant. Today, moreover,young Negro men are obtaining more schoolingthan Negro women, a reversal of the pattern thathad long persisted among Negroes and an indica-tion of the growing opportunity for the educatedNegro male.
Educational attainment, as measured by years ofschooling, gives no indication, however, of whetherdifferences in the quality of education, as meas-ured by achievement tests, are being reduced. TheColeman Report,68 based on a 1965 national survey,shows that at the 12th grade, the average Negroyouth is performing at a ninth-grade level, whereasthe average white youth is performing well abovethe 12th grade level. The gap in achievement level,apparent early, broadens between the sixth and12th grades. Comparable data for 1960 are notavailable, an.d it is thus impossible to gage theprogress achieved through the aid to poor schooldistricts provided under the Elementary andSecondary Education Act and other remedialprograms.
58 James S. Coleman, Equality of Educational Opportunity(Washington : U15. Department of Health, Education, and Wel-fare, Office of Education, 1966), p. 21.
Progress and Retrogression
A picture of both progress and retrogressionemerges from these figures. The growing pro-portion of Negro families with moderate incomesor better, the larger number of Negro males grad-uating from college, and the growth in representa-tion of Negroes in professional, technical, and otherwhite-collar occupations augur well for the tal-ented group that has been able to upgrade itselfand take advantage of available opportunities.
But at the other end of the scale are the ruralpoor and the slumdwellers. Some advance for themis evidenced by the reduction in the proportion offamilies with incomes of less than $3,000. But manyslum residents appear to be in a deteriorating eco-nomic position.
A 1965 census survey of Cleveland, for example,points both to advances for some of the Negro pop-ulation and to retrogression for others. Thus,Negroes living in sections of the city outside low-income neighborhoods doubled in number between1960 and 1965. And the poverty ratio among themdeclined more than three times as much as forwhites outside these neighborhoods.
However, in the lowest income neighborhoodthe so-called "crisis ghetto," which is predomi-nantly Negroconditions deteriorated sharply.Population declined somewhat, but the number ofpeople living in poverty rose, as the number of
TABLE 18. EMPLOYED PERSONS BY OCCUPATION AND COLOR, 1967, AND PERCENT CHANGE, 1960-67
Percent of total popu-lation (includingAnglos) employed 8. 2 .5 .2 2. 5 88. 6 7.9 .6 .2 2. 5 88.9
1 The data were collected from employers with 100 or more workers.Nonraservation Indians.
3 Includes both Puerto Ricans and Mexican Americans.
low-income families headed by women increased.For such families median real income dropped 15percent, while in the rest of the city it was movingupward. The unemployment rate for men was 15percent and for women, 17 percent-in both cases,substantially higher than in 1960. The 1965 censusof the Watts area of South Los Angeles yieldedvery similar findings. Some of the deterioration inthe low-income neighborhoods probably stemmedfrom out-migration of people who could affordto move and in-migration of poorer ones.
OTHER ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS
The main ethnic minority groups in the UnitedStates, in addition to Negroes, are Mexican Amer-icans, Puerto Ricans, and American Indians. Allare economically disadvantaged, though their diffi-culties differ in both kind and degree.
These groups suffer from limited education andlanguage barriers. High unemployment and low
64
NOTE: Detail may not add to totals duo to rounding.SOITECE: Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Compliance
Reports.
incomes are a reflection of their inability to ad-vance into fields of work which might offer hopefor improved economic conditions. Discriminationis another factor inhibiting their: advancement.
Mexican Americans
The Mexican Americans in the United Stateslive almost entirely in the Southwest (Arizona,California, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas) ,
with about 80 percent concentrated in Texas andCalifornia. The Mexican American population inthe Southwest increased from 3.5 million in 1960,"to an estimated 4.6 million in 1967, and will reach
co "Persons of Spanish Surname" is the title used by the Cen-sus Bureau to denote all persons of Spanish or Mexican originin the Southwest. Since most of the Spanish surname populationof the Southwest are persons of Mexican descent, the designationof "Mexican Americans" is used here to refer to this populationgroup. It includes natives of native parentage, natives of foreignparentitge, and immigrants. (The section on Mexican Americansin the 1064 Manpower Report of the President limited its discus-sion to Mexican Americans born in Mexico and the natives bornof immigrant parents.)
5 million by 1910." About 85 percent of the pop-ulation were born in the United States, and thevast majority lives in cities.
Mexican Americans share many of the difficul-ties of other minority groups. Language and physi-cal characteristics set them apart from the rest ofthe population. They tend to live in segregatedcommunities and have little education and anabove average rate of unemployment. And theyare employed for the most part in low-status, low-paying jobs. The competition of Mexicans whomove back and forth across the border compoundseconomic difficulties for those in the border States.
Despite the large numbers of Mexican Ameri-cans in the United States, there are no data ofnational scope subsequent to 1960, by which theireconomic and social situation can be measured. Ifthe trends evident between 1950 and 1960 havecontinuednamely, the movement from rural tourban locations and: from lower income to higherincome areas (particularly to California) thestandard of living of Mexican Americans as agroup should be rising in absolute terms. There areindications, too, that the native-born members ofthe group are raising their educational sights andthat, to some extent, the young people are movinginto better occupations. But no definitive judg-ment can be made as to whether the educational,occupational, and income gap between MexicanAmericans and Anglos has narrowed substantially.
Education. Among the minorities, only the In-dian has poorer educational preparation than theMexican American. In 1960. the median years ofschool completed by Mexican American men aged25 and over in the Southwestern States rangedfrom 4.8 in Texas to 8.5 in California. In all theStates, the figure was at least 31/2 years below th9tfor Anglo men.
The gap in schooling between Mexican Ameri-cans and Anglos is narrower among younger menwho have completed their education more recently.In 1960, the difference in educational attainmentfor those aged 14 to 24 was only 2 years in theSouthwest generally, and little more than a yearin California. However, the proportion of Mexi-can American young people completing highschool is small and the proportion completing col-lege even smaller.
co Vrom an unpublished estimate prepared by the U.S. Departanent of Labor, Bureau of Labor 'Statistics.
CHART 14
Percent of nonwhite families withincome under $3,000 has dropped
sharply but is still twice that for whites.Percent60.01
!
50.0""11.18 141.161
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0 -
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0
60.0
50.0
40.0
1
30.0
20.0
White
to WIN
0.
1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, based on data from U.S Departmentof Commerce.
65
Occupational Distribution. Mexican Americanmen are found primarily in manual occupations.To the extent that they hold white-collar jobs,these tend to be in small establishments in retailtrade. Those few in the professional and technicaloccupational category are mostly in technical jobs.About 30 percent of the men were farm and non-farm laborers, and 40 percent worked in craft andoperative jobs in 1960.
Mexican American women have made fargreater inroads into white-collar employment thanhave men. Almost two-fifths of the women livingin cities were employed in white-collar occupa-tionsa much smaller proportion than amongAnglos but notably greater than for nonwhites.
The survey by the Equal Opportunity Commis-sion referred to earlier provides 1966 data on theoccupational distribution of Mexican Americanemployees of firms with 100 or more workers inthe Los Angeles-Long Beach and San Francisco-Oakland areas. These data show a continued con-centration of Mexican American workers at thelower end of the occupational scale, with over halfemployed as operatives or laborers and only one-fifth in white-collar jobsmostly clerical andsales. Mexican Americans, like Negroes, are con-centrated in industries in which low-wage jobspredominate. However, this disadvantage is muchless pronounced than it is for Negroes.
Income. Despite minimal schooling, MexicanAmerican adult men had higher incomes in 1960than men in other minorities in the SouthwesternStateswith the notable exception of the Japanesein tlialifornia, whose relatively high earnings re-flect their high educational level, which exceededeven that of the Anglos.
'Close to 90 percent of the income gap betweenMexican American and Anglo men in Californiais associated with differences in level of education,and the situation is much the same in other States.The remaining relatively small income gap maybe attributed to wage and occupational discrim-ination, as well as to differences in quality ofeducation.
East Los Angeles Survey. More recent insightsinto the economic situation of Mexican Americansin. Califomia shim areas are provided by a special1965 census survey of East Los Angelesa low-income area in which some three-fourths of thepopulation (35,000) are Mexican Americans. Ingeneral, the findings support the view that, for
66
those who do not escape from the slums, there hasbeen little, if any, improvement in the quality oflife.
The Mexican American population of East LosAngeles rose by 7,400 between 1960 and 1965. Thiswas the net result of an increase of more than 9,000in the foreign-born population and a reduction ofsome 2,000 in the native-born populationprob-ably reflecting the movement of the more prosper-ous families into better neighborhoods.
Unemployment rates in the area showed someimprovement over the 5-year perioddecliningfrom 9.2 to 7.8 percent for Mexican American men,and from 8.1 to 7.1 percent for women. These 1965rates were still well above the 6 percent unemploy-ment rate for the Los Angeles-Long Beach areaas a whole, but considerably below those in thepredominantly Negro South Los Angeles district.
The occupations of Mexican American menshowed the same concentration in manual jobs in1965 as in 1960, with the largest proportion in op-erative and kindred jobs (42 percent) and onlyminimal representation in white-collar employ-ment.
Developments in the educational situation of theMexican American population in East Los An-geles were both favorable and unfavorable. Theproportion of the school-age population enrolledin school rose from 52 to 60 percent between 1960and 1965. Enrollments in high school and in col-lege also increased. However, among MexicanAmericans aged 25 or over, median school yearscompleted declined slightlyfrom 8.1 to 7.7. Fac-tors which may have contributed to this declinewere the greater proportion of men aged 60 andover in the population in 1965, as compared withthe earlier date, and the increased proportion thatwere Mexican born.
The median income of the Mexican Americanfamilies in East Los Angeles remained about thesame between 1959 and 1964 ($5,089 as comparedto $5,052) . These figures make no allowance, how-ever, for the sharp rise in living costs during thisperiod.
Norio Ricans
Puerto Ricans are American citizens, predomi-nantly of the white race, but they share with otherminority groups the problems of low educationalattainment and language barriers, the difficultiesof finding work in the higher status, higher pay-
ing jobs, and unemployment rates much above thenational average.
The overriding difficulty in an attempt to assessthe present social and economic situation of PuertoRicans is the almost complete lack of data. Specialstudies yield limited information. The little infor-mation available on Puerto Ricans in New YorkCitywhere two-thirds of the migrants and theirchildren are concentratedindicates little if anyprogress in the present decade c1
Since 1960, Puerto Ricans have made up a stead-ily growing proportion of the New York Citypopulationfrom 8 percent in 1960 to an esti-mated 11 percent in 1966.02 Migration to mainlandUnited States is decreasing, however, and is ex-pected to level off at approximately 10,000 an-nually, from a rate more than twice that high 10years ago:"
The New York Puerto Rican population wasestimated at 841,000 in 1966. It is a young popula-tion. A large proportion are teenagerswith allthe problems of their age group in finding em-ployment, further complicated by lack of languagefacility, poor education, and discrimination.
Employment and Unemployment. While the num-ber of Puerto Ricans at work in New York Citywas greater in 1967 than in 1960, their unemploy-ment rate remained higher than for the labor forceas a whole. In September 1967, roughly 12 percentof the unemployed in the State of New York werePuerto Ricans.°4
Indicative of the extreme problem of teenageunemployment among Puerto Ricans are the find-ings of a sample survey in the Bronx, N.Y., in thespring of 1966. Of all unemployed Puerto Ricans,24 percent were 14 to 19 years old, and another 19percent were between N and 24 years of age. ForNegroes in the Bronx, the comparable figureswere 10 and 16 percent, respectively.°
el The Puerto Rican Ootnmunity Development Project (NewYork : Puerto Rican Forum, Inc., 1904), p. 30.
62 Based on New York City Population Health Survey, 1905.The surveys are based on a probability sample of about 5,400households a year, and thus conclusions are subject to manylimitations.
03 d Summary in Pacts and Figure'', Progress in Puerto Rico-Puerto Rican Migration (San Alan, P.R. : Commonwealth ofPuerto Rico, Department of Labor, Idigration Division, 1005),1901=19615 Edition.
Cl Report of the State Employment Service, New York Depart-ment of Labor. Based on number of persons who applied for, werereceiving, and/or had received all benefits of unemployment com-pensation and were still unemployed.
65 "A Profile of the Bronx Economy" (New York : Institute ofUrban Studies, Forditam University, n.d.), Household Suivey,mimeographed.
Occupational Distribution. Puerto Ricans are em-ployed predominantly in the lower paying jobs.In metropolitan New York in 1960, 71 percent ofall employed Puerto Rican men. were serviceworkers, laborers, and operatives and kindredworkers, compared with only 31 percent of otherwhite men and 61 percent of all nonwhite men.A recent study in New York City °° emphasizesthat, while the percentage of nonwhite men inwhite-collar occupations is increasing, no suchtrend is apparent for Puerto Ricans. Between1960 and 1966 the proportion of Puerto Rican men'employed in white-collar occupations remainedat about 17 percent. Puerto Rican women, in con-trast, made sizable gains in white-collar employ-ment during the 6 years.
It is relevant also that the Compliance Reportsof the Equal Employment Opportunity Commis-sion show almost identical occupational distribu-tions of Puerto Rican and Negro men in the NewYork City establishments covered.
Education. There has been no marked improve-ment in recent years in the educational level of thePuerto Rican group as a whole. More than 50 per-cent of both men and women 25 years and olderhave had less than 8 years of formal education.Only about 13 percent are high school graduatesP
There are, however, some indications of upwardeducational movement among the Puerto Ricans.Children, in general, are better educated than theirparents. This is similar to the experience of earlierimmigrant groups, but the educational growth ap-pears to be taking place at a slower rate for PuertoRicans.
Of the Puerto Ricans 20 to 34 years of ageliving in New York City in 1963, about 37percent had some high school education, and about21 percent were high school graduates. In contrast,only 14 percent of the 35- to 49-year-old grouphad some high school education, and an equalproportion were high school graduates. AmongPuerto Ricans aged 50 to 64, the proportion withthese levels of education was 10 percent in eachcase.
But the situation, even for the young, is not en-couraging. Ninety percent of the New York City
co M. T. Wantman, "Changes in White-Collar Employment ofNonwhite and Puerto Rican Residents of New York City, (10001905)" (New York : The City University of New York, Center forSocial Research, n.d.), Population Health Survey, Research 1%lemo.random, mimeographed.
a A report on the first citywide Puerto Rican Community Con-ference, called by Mayor John V. Lindsay, in 1900.
67
Puerto Rican high school graduates in 1966 re-ceived only a general diploma, which is little morethan a certificate of attendance. Although thereappeared to be some increase in the proportion ofPuerto Rican young people in academic and voca-tional high schools in 1967, there is no significantchange in their high dropout rate. Almost two-thirds of the children are retarded in reading. Thisis not surprising since, of some 227,000 PuertoRicans in New York City schools in 1967, about100,000 did not speak English,"
Income. Poverty is significantly greater amongPuerto Ricans than among any other identifiableracial or ethnic group in New York City. This isin part a consequence of the low educational at-tainment of the Puerto Rican population, and thelow-skilled, low-status jobs at which they work.
The 1966 Bronx survey showed that 30 per-cent of all Puerto Rican households were belowthe $3,000 income level, as compared with 29 per-cent of Negro households and 18 percent of non-Puerto Rican white households An additional 45percent of Puerto Rican households reported in-comes between $3,000 and $5,000, while compara-ble rates for Negroes and for other whites were 33and 18 percent, respectively.
American Indians
American Indians were reported in the 1960 cen-sus as numbering 552,000, including all native peo-ples of Alaska. Since that time the total has grownto well over 600,000. Of this number, somewhatmore than 400,000 are reported by the Bureau ofIndian Affairs of the U.S. Department of Interiorto be residents of Indian reservations. This reser-vation population has never been accurately iden-tified either by number or by characteristics.
Despite the lack of available data, it is clearthat Indians living on reservations are among themost disadvantaged minorities in the country.Many suffer from serious handicaps of poor health,deficient education, unfamiliarity with English,lack of marketable skills, high unemployment,and low income.
These conclusions are based on scattered infor-
e Release, Board al Education of the City of New York,November ;1,1967.
mation limited, for the most part, to reservationand reservation-community Indians. Further com-plicating appraisal of the situation is the steadyand increasingly planned departure of many ofthe abler members of the Indian communities. It isestimated that net out-migration from the reser-vations is now approaching 10,000 each year, large-ly offsetting the high rate of natural populationgrowth. Among this number are hundreds of fam-ilies whose working members have benefited fromvocational training or direct job placement serv-ices of the Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Employment and Unemployment. The Indian laborforcedefined as all Indians of employable ageneither in school nor prevented from working byretirement, ill health, or child-care obligationsisestimated at 130,000, some 10 percent greater thanin 1962. About 82,500 of them were at work in 1967,but how many were fully employed is not known.Fragmentary information indicates that some oc-cupational upgrading is taking place, that fewerIndians are working at farm jobs and more atskilled and semiskilled jobs, and that year-roundemployment is increasingtrends evident since1950. These advances are minimal, however, whencompared with those of the labor force generally.
Since 1962 the Bureau of Indian Affairs has ex-panded its program to promote the location ofmanufacturing industries on the reservations. In1960, nine plants providing a total of 599 jobs werebuilt on or near reservations. By September 1967,the number of plants had risen to 113, employing5,510 Indians. This development is accompaniedby on-the-job training. For persons seeking em-ployment away from the reservation, there is aprogram of institutional training and job place-ment that has expanded steadily in recent years.
The usual definition of unemployment is not asatisfactory measure of joblessness on the reserva-tions, because so few job opportunities are avail-able there. Accordingly, the Bureau of Indian Af-fairs reports as unemployed all members of thereservation labor force (as defined above) who arenot at work. The Bureau's semiannual reservationreports show a significant favorable trend. Fromabout 49 percent in 1962, the unemployment ratedeclined to 41 percent in 1966 and, by 1967, to 37percent. This reduction of 12 percentage points,when applied to the 1967 labor force of 132,000,
indicates that 15,000 more Indians were at worklast year than would have had jobs if the 1962 un-employment rate had continued unchanged. Thisimprovement appears to have resulted from recentemphasis on Indian employment opportunitiesnear the reservations and development of reserva-tion-based industries, both greatly strengthened bylong-sustained national prosperity.
Income. Three-fourths of the reservation fam-ilies had cash incomes of less than $3,000 in 1966,according to estimates by the Bureau of IndianAffairs. Yet Indian families are larger, on theaverage, than those of any other ethnic group. Noother ethnic group approaches so high a propor-tion of families living in poverty. However, thesecomparisons make no allowance for substantialFederal services available to Indians.
Education and Training. There are signs of con-tinuing improvement in education of AmericanIndians. School enrollment has been growingsteadily. The majority of the children now attendpublic schools, rather than special Indian schools.Moreover, the education available is showing qual-itative improvements as teaching is improved andextracurricular activities are expanded with finan-cial aid under the Elementary and SecondaryEducation Act of 1965.
The number of Indians attending college alsohas shown some growth. In 1966, over 4,000 In-dians were enrolled in universities and colleges-1,500 more than in 1957, with half the gain takingplace since 1964. In 1966, 120 Indians graduatedfrom 4-year colleges and universities, more thantwice as many as in 1961.
In an effort to reach the hard-core unemployed,the Bureau of Indian Affairs has established sev-eral residential employment-training centers. Pro-grams initiated under the Economic OpportunityAct are expanding educational, training, andwork-training opportunities for Indians. Pro-grams under the Manpower Development andTraining Act also have had an impact on trainingof reservation Indians, for whom a number of spe-cific projects have been designed. The Federal-State Employment Service is also strengtheningits services to Indians, as recommended by the firstNational Conference on Manpower Problems ofIndians, held in February 1967.
03.459 0 - 09 - 7
INFORMATIONAL NEEDS
The attempt to evaluate, either quantitatively orqualitatively, the present situation of minoritygroups, especially the smaller ones, is beset withdifficulties stemming in large part from the lack ofcomprehensive, current data.
In the past few years, measures of manpowerand social trendspopulation, family composi-tion, health, education, mobility, employment andunemployment, occupations, income, housing,voter registrationhave been greatly expandedfor all nonwhites as a group and particularly forNegroes. The problems to which these overallmeasures point warrant much more intensivestudy, however. The stubborn problem of Negroteenage unemployment is one of these; the rea-sons for the growing proportion of Negro menneither working nor looking for work is another;the relative lack of mobility toward white-collarjobs and high-level positions within employingfirms is a third. The Labor Department haslaunched a number of studies into these andrelated Negro problems. Periodic investigation ofmany of these problem areas is essential to thedevelopment of programs and policies designed tocorrect the social ills involved.
For other minorities, the lack of data is muchmore pronounced. While the Bureau of Indian Af-fairs gathers statistics regularly on the Indian andEskimo populations under its jurisdiction, theydiffer in concept, scope, and technique from thosecollected for Americans generally. The Bureau iscurrently planning to include recent out-migrantsfrom reservations in their statistical surveys sothat a more complete appraisal of Indian progresscan be made. Information on employment, occupa-tions, and earnings of Indians is in particular needof improvement.
For the Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans,the absence of data is also striking. The problemsinvolved in obtaining more adequate and currentinformation for these groups deserve intensiveexploration.
In depth investigation is needed also to indi-cate solutions to problems already evident. It isimportant to find out, for example, why the posi-tion of Puerto Ricans in New York shows no 'visi-ble improvement, despite the slowing down of im-migration, and what accounts for the pronouncedand continuing educational lag among MexicanAmericans.
69
Manpower Requirements and Resources
In the manpower problem areas so far discussed,the record of the past several years has been oneof major achievements but also of continuinggrave deficiencies in meeting workers' employ-ment needs. The central aim of manpower policyin all these areas has been to promote the welfareof workers and potential workers, and the prog-ress made in each of them has been and should beassessed primarily from this viewpoint.
Tin second broad objective of manpower pol-icymeeting the manpower requirements of oureconomy and societyhas also demanded in-creased attention and program action. The sus-tained economic expansion of the past 'T years hasgenerated greatly increased manpower require-ments, brought employment to record levels, andsharply reduced the overall rate of unemployment.During the first few years of the expansion, en-larged employment needs could generally be metby hiring unemployed workers. But beginning inlate 1905, a tightening of the manpower demand-and-supply situation was reported. The countrythus faced a highly paradoxical manpower situa-tionwith skill shortages reported in many occu-pations and local areas, while large numbers ofworkers remained idle or underutilized.
As the President said in his 1966 ManpowerReport:
There is no overall labor shortage. But the unemployedand underemployed are not fully matched with the jobMavailable.
Specific shortages of labor can slow up the expansion ofthe 'conomy. They can put pressure on costs and prices.
We 'are determined to do whatever is necessary to keepthe economy expanding and avoid inflationary bottle-necks.
The President then outlined plans to head oftmanpower shortages through program action.Among the steps he called for was inclusion inthe Department's employment reports of "the full-est possible information on existing or threateninglabor shortage situations."
The new program for identifying and report-ing on labor shortages accordingly undertaken hasutilized a variety of statistical indicators, most ofthem providing indirect rather tha direct evi-dence of the labor supply- and- demand situation.Direct evidence of labor shortages could comefrom statistics on current job opportunities, but so
70
far such statistics are available only from experi-mental surveys in a few labor areas. Data on un-filled, job openings registered with local Employ-ment Service officesat present the major sourceof direct information on skill shortagesgive amuch better picture of labor needs in some indus-tries and occupations than in others.
Indirect evidence on labor scarcities, however,can be gleaned from sevc series of economicstatistics, including the um: iployment rates andhours of work. By itself, no one of these serieswould be a reliable measure of manpower imbal-ances. But together, they can provide a compositepicture of a tightening or loosening job marketand give warning of labor shortages as well asunused manpower resources.
That the current manpower situation reflectsmismatches between requirements and supply,rather than any general exhaustion of labor re-serves, is underlined by all the available evidence.The extreme type of general labor shortage, in-volving depletion of labor supply to the pointwhere employment increases are impossible, hasoccurred only once in this country's recent his-toryduring World War II. The labor shortagesof the past several years have been sometimes tem-porary, sometimes chronic, but always limited tospecific occupations, industries, or localities.
Limited labor shortages of these kinds areeasiest to define and classify when they can berelated to unfilled job openings. However, the con-cept must be stretched to include also unmet needsfor the self-employed (for example, physicians)and positions that have had to be filled with lessqualified applicants (as has sometimes happened,for example, in teaching), difficult as the problemsof definition become in both situations. One goalin further research on current job opportunitiesand labor shortages will be to clarify these elusivedefinitional problems. At the same time, researchwill be directed toward developing more precisemeasures of shortages and guiding needed adjust-ments in both manpower demand and supply.
CURRENT JOB OPPORTUNITIES
Information on current job opportunities is po-tentially the most effective measure of labor short-ages. If detailed and comprehensive data were
available on job opportunities, these would con-stitute sensitive indicators of the changing stateof local job markets. Together with unemploy-ment statistics and other data, they could be apowerful aid in detecting occupational and geo-graphic imbalances in manpower demand andsupply. Job opportunity statistics could thus helpto guide economic policy aimed at minimizingfluctuations in employment. And they could beparticularly valuable as a guide in planning man-power programs aimed at more efficient matchingof workers and jobs.
For reasons such as thew, the Department ofLabor recently intensified its research program totest the feasibility of collecting job opportunitydata." Pilot studies have demonstrated that a via-ble survey yielding reasonably accurate current in-formation could be instituted. The results also rein-force the presumptions just indicated regarding thecontributions this information can make in ap-praising the job market situation and guidingmanpower policy and programs.
Before discussing a few key findings of theseexperimental surveys, a major caution concerningtheir interpretation is in order. This survey pro-gram is so new and the techniques so experimentalthat it is difficult to distinguish altogether be-tween substantive findings, atypical variation, andsampling error. The results should be regarded notas exact measures but as approximations aroundwhich the precise answers would tend to cluster.More definitive conclusions will be possible whenthe surveys are repeated on a regular basis andthe results studied over tithe in relation to othereconomic measures.
The job market tightened sharply between 1965and 1966 in many local areas, according to the De-partment's surveys. The job opportunity rate (thenumber of unfilled opportunities as a percent ofthe total number of filled and unfilled jobs in thearea) was found to be higher in April 1966 thanthe year before in 10 of the 13 areas surveyed inboth years. (See chart 15.) In six areas, the raterose by at least 50 percent, and in three of theseby more than 80 percent.
To explore the reasons for current job oppor-tunities and, in particular, to determine whethera given opening in reality denotes a labor short-
09 For a further discussion of the need for a count of job vacan-cies and recommendations for a research program on this subject,see Meceettring Employment and Unemployment (Washington :President's Committee to Appraise Employment and Unemploy-ment Statistics, 1962), pp. 199--202.
CHART V;
Job opportunity rates rose sharplybetween April 1965 and April 1966
in most areas'surveyed
Minneapolis- 1966St. Paul 1965
Richmond 1966
1965
Baltimore 1966
1965
Charleston, S.C. 1966
1965
Miami 1966
1965
Chicago 1966
1965
Milwaukee 1966
1965
Los Angeles 1966
1965
New York 1966
Portland, Ore. 1966
Birmingham 1966
Kansas City 1966
Charleston, W.Va. 1966
1965
1965
1965
1965
1965
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
Percent
0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Long-term jobopportunity rate
Short-term jobopportunity rate
age, it is essential to know how long the job hasremained unfilled, the nature and size of the oc-cupation, the seasonal pattern of employment,the turnover rate, wages, and other factors affect-ing both labor demand and labor supply. Even inperiods of business recession, job opportunitiesoccur frequently as people change jobs or leave the
71
work force and employers seek new workers to re-place those who leave. If the openings are filledquickly, they cannot be interpreted as indicative oflabor shortages. But when openings are of longduration and hence in the "hard-to-fill" category,they are likely to reflect either a lack of workerswith the required skills or such problems as sub-standard wages, poor working conditions, inacces-sible plant locations, or unrealistic hiringspecifications.
Approximately half of all opportunities re-ported in the 1966 surveys had remained unfilledat least a month and were classed as hard to fill.The long-term opportunity rate was higher in 1966than the year before in half the areas covered anddeclined in only a few of them.
The extremely wide range of occupations forwhich current job opportunities were reported isanother significant finding. There were un-filled openings, both long-term and short-term,at every occupational level from unskilled jobs toprofessional positions. The relative numbers ofopenings in the various occupational categoriesdiffered greatly among areas, however, reflectingthe areas' differing industrial character, as well asthe local manpower supply-and-demand balance.
In general, the proportion of long-term oppor-tunities was highest in the professional, man-agerial, and skilled groups (nearly 55 percent, onthe average, in the areas surveyed in April 1966).And in certain professions and skilled occupationsthe proportion of opportunities that were in thehard-to-fill category was even greater. For ex-ample, 9 out of every 10 of the openings for trainednurses and of those for tool and die makers hadbeen unfilled for 30 days or longertestifying tothe severe personnel shortages in these occupations.
To test whether substandard wages were a sig-nificant factor in the job opportunity situation,wage rates were obtained in connection with theopportunity information. In general, the wageslisted were in line with entry rates for the sameoccupations, as determined from local Employ-ment Service records. But a sizable minority of theopportunities (about 15 to 20 percent, according tovery limited data from the 1966 surveys) offeredwages below the usual entry rates.
Information about the proportion of hard-to-filljob opportunities traceable to these substandardwage offers and the occupations in which theywere concentrated has not been provided by theinitial surveys. Since this information is basic to
72
the interpretation of job opportunity data and toan understanding of labor shortage problems, theyare among the items that need to be explored indepth in further job opportunity research.
OTHER JOB MARKET INDICATORS
The tightening of the manpower supply-and-demand situation in 1965-66 extended beyond theareas covered by the vacancy surveys to the econ-omy generally. This is made plain by the num-bers of unfilled job openings listed with Employ-ment Service offices throughout the country, theaverage weekly hours and quit rates of factoryworkers, and the national unemployment rate.(See chart 16.) These indicators also show easingof the job market during early 1967 (as discussedin detail in the chapter on Trends in Employmentand Unemployment). But they give mutually con-firming evidence that manpower demand at theend of 1967 was still much above the levels of theearly 1960'sand labor scarcities are likely to bea continuing problem in a good many occupationsand local areas.
Employment Service Unfilled Openings
In the absence of up-to-date, nationwide statis-tics on current job opportunities, the unfilled jobopenings on file with public Employment Serviceoffices are the best available direct measure of man-power demand and supply. Only about a third. ofall job opportunities are listed with the Employ-ment Service, however. And some industries andoccupational groupsmany of the professions,for examplemake little if any use of public em-ployment offices. Nevertheless, major changes inthe numbers or types of openings listed with localoffices often provide clues to overall shifts in de-mand for workers.
An increase of over 50 percent in unfilled jobopenings listed with the Employment Servicetook place between June 1965 and April 1966, testi-fying to the growing job market stringency. (Seechart 16.) The rise in unfilled openings duringthese 10 months ( from 280,000 to 430,000, accord-ing to seasonally adjusted data) was greater thanhad occurred during all the previous 4 years ofsteady economic expansion.
The decline in unfilled openings after Septem-ber 1966 was an equally clear signal of a loosen-ing job market in many sections of the country.But in most months of 1967 the number of unfilledjob openings on file at local offices exceeded all rec-ords for the same month for years prior to 1966,indicating continued demand for qualified work-ers in a wide range of occupations.
The scarcity of professional, technical, and man-agerial personnel is reflected in the high propor-tion of job openings in these occupations that haveremained unfilled as long as 30 clays or more.There was some easing of shortage problems evenin professional and related occupations during1967, but the great majority of job openings inthese occupations remained in the hard-to-fill cate-gory, as shown by the following figures for 77major metropolitan areas :
Percent of Employment Service job openings unfilled SO days or longer
Professional,
DateAll
occupationstechnical,
and managerial1966: January 1 49 66
April 1 45 74July 1 56 81December 1 57 74
1967: March 1 49 66June 1 45 71December 1 49 72
Hours of Work
Changes in hours of work are one of the mostsensitive, early indicators of changing labor de-mand. Under certain circumstances, increases inworking hours also can be a signal of emerginglabor shortages.
When experienced workers are not available,employers often respond to an increase in prod-uct demand by lengthening hours of work. Andconversely, when demand is slack, they generallyreduce working hours before laying off workers.This practice has been accentuated in recent yearsby the rising costs of hiring and training newworkers, the expansion of severance pay and otherfringe benefit provisions, and the consequent im-portance of holding down employee turnover rates.Some industries, such as automobile manufactur-ing, regularly schedule large amounts of overtimeto meet peak production demands.
During the most recent period of intense de-mand for labor, in 1965 and early 1966, averagehours worked rose sharply (though not nearly tothe level reached during World War II, when theaverage factory workweek exceeded 45 hours for
CHART 16
Important job market indicators I/show similar trends.
Thousands
450
400 Unfilled Employment
Service job openings (nonfarm)350
300
250
200
150
Hours
42,0
41.0
40,0Average weekly hours of
39.0 production workers in manufacturing
38.0
Quits per hundred employees
3.0Quit rate in manufacturing
2.0
1.0
Percent
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.n
7.07.5
Unemployment rate (inverted scale)
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967
.1/ Seasonally adjusted data.Sourco: U.S. Department of Labor.
many months). In early 1966, working time inmanufacturing reached a postwar high of 411/2hours per week. Then, after midyear, hours ofwork edged downward irregularly. In early 1967,with the easing of demand and of labor shortageproblems, average hours fell to less than 401/2 perweek, but turned upward after mid-year.
Quit Rates
The proportion of workers quitting their jobsprovides still another test of the job market. Tradi-
73
tionally, quit rates have risen when employmentopportunities are improving. They have tradition-ally fallen when new positions are hard to findand workers are therefore less likely to quit.
Quit rates in manufacturing industries rosefrom an average of 19 per 1,000 workers per monthin 1965 to 26 per 1,000 in 1966. The latter figurewas fairly close to the rate during the Koreanwar (29 per 1,000 in 1951) but still well below therecord figure of 63 per 1,000 reached in 1943, dur-ing the World War II labor shortage. The rateremained high throughout 1966, but it slackenedto an average of 23 per 1,000 for the year 1967.
The highest quit rates are not found in indus-tries (such as machinery and construction) withshortages of skilled workers. On the contrary, theyare encountered hi industries with relatively lowpay levels, unattractive working conditions, sea-sonal employment, and a low-skilled labor force.These industries historically have found it difficultto attract and retain workers in periods of rapideconomic growth and abundant job opportunities.In 1966, for example, the furniture, leather, lum-ber, textile, and apparel industries had the highestquit rates of any major branches of manufactur-ing. There is little doubt that many service andother nonmanufacturing businesses with low wagescales had similar problems of employee turnover,although statistics are not available for theseindustries.
Unemployment Rates
Unemployment rates for the work force gen-erally, and for different occupational groups andgeographic areas, add another dimension of in-sight into the labor demand-and-supply situation.During the past 3 years, the changes in unemploy-ment rates have confirmed the evidence of otherjob market indicators as to the tightening andthen loosening job market.
That no general shortage of labor has occurredduring the economic upturn of the past 7 years issubstantiated by the unemployment rates, as wellas much other evidence. The lowest figure towhich the national unemployment rate droppedduring any quarter in this period was 3.7 percent(in the last quarter of 1966 and the first of 1967,on a seasonally adjusted basis). Compared with
74
the average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in1965 and of over 5 percent in preceding years, thisfigure represented a great gain. But even withunemployment down to 3.7 percent of the totalwork force, the rate of joblessness remained veryhigh among specific groups of workers (youth,nonwhites, the unskilled) and in particular localareas. And the national average rate was still wellabove the frictional minimum associated with nor-
CHART 17
Unemployment rates are lowest forprofessional and managerial workers-
highest for nonfarm laborers.
Unemployment rate
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Laborers (nonfarm)
Service workers
Operatives
Craftsmen
Clerical tirlf
Farmworkers
Professional and managerial
0
1964 1965 1966 1967
Note: Quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted.Source: U.S. Department of Lath.
mal labor turnover and seasonal fluctuations inemployment."
This country has continued to have large num-bers of unutilized workers. But manifold and dif-ficult problems of mismatching of workers andjobs will have to be overcome, before these po-tential manpower reserves can. be fully utilized, asis suggested by the differential rates of unemploymeat in different occupations and local areas.
In professional, technical, and managerial occu-pations, the rate of unemployment has been about1.2 percent for the past 21/2 years. (See chart 17.)This low level of unemployment is undoubted evi-dence of widespread personnel shortages in manyprofessional and related occupations.
The unemployment rates for craftsmen and forclerical workers have also been relatively low(under 3 percent in most months of 1966 and1967). For operatives and service workers, theyhave been much higher, however. And nonfarmlaborers have had far the highest unemploymentrates of all (7 percent or higher even in 1966, andclose 1,',0 8 percent in mid-1967). The fact that lackof skill debars many workers from qualifying forthe available jobs is all too apparent.
Wide differences in unemployment rates existalso among local labor areaspointing to seriousgeographic mismatching of workers and jobs.Many local areas have had very low unemploymentrates at the same time that others had surpluslabor. (See table 20.)
The number of areas with high levels of unem-ployment has decreased sharply over the past 3years. Nevertheless, 9 of the 150 major labor areashad substantial unemployment throughout 1967,and nearly 500 smaller areas were classified ashaving substantial or persistent unemployment atthe end of the year.
Even within local areas there are manpower im-balances to which the area unemployment dataprovide no clue. Occupational mismatching ofworkers and jobs has plagued many communities,as well as the country generally (according to re-ports from local employment offices and othersources). Furthermore, in many large metropoli-
co According to a. recent estimate, a minimum level below whichunemployment could probably not be reduced (except underconditions of full mobilization) might be reached in the rangeof a 2- to 2.G- percent overall unemployment rate. Sra ArthurM. Ross, "Techniques for Identifying Labour Shortages andIllustrations of Techniques for Meeting Short-Run and SeasonalLabour Shortages," paper presented at International Conferenceon Employment Stabilization in a Growth Economy at Munich,October 1967 (Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperationand Development), p. 8.
lAreas aro classified as having low unemployment when the unemploymentrate is 1.6 to 2.9 percent; as moderate when it is 3.0 to 6.9 percent; and as sub-stantial when the rate is generally 6 percent or more. Sce "Explanation ofArea Classifications" in Area Trend* in Employment and Unemployment(Washington: 'U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration), anyreont issue.
tan areas, residents of central city ghettos are iso-lated from the general job market and unable totake advantage of expanding job opportunities inthe suburbs.71
INFORMATIONAL. NEEDS
This brief review of the statistical evidence re-garded as the most effective now available for as-sessing the manpower supply-and-demand situ-ation makes two things clear. It is possible todraw well-confirmed conclusions about the over-all tightness of the job market and the changingextent of labor shortages from these statistics,and to obtain some insights into the most critical
71 For a discussion of this problem, see the chapter on Geo-graphic Factors in Employment and Manpower Development.
75
problems. But, it is usually impossible, on thebasis of present information, to pinpoint andmeasure labor shortages in particular local areasor particular occupations. The planning of train-ing programs and other measures to relieve man-power imbalances is thus greatly hampered.
If up-to-date information on ,iob opportunitieswere available for different labor areas, thiswould help greatly in improving the efficiency ofjob market operations and in making man-power programs more effective at the communitylevel, where they are actually implemented. Muchprogress on the difficult problems of definition andinterpretation involved in job opportunity datahas already been made through the Department ofLabor's experimental surveys, and experience withmore extensive surveys should lead to further re-finements and improvements, like those made overmany years in the unemployment statistics.
Efforts to solve labor shortages cannot stop withea3 post facto evaluation and action, however. "Thetime to deal with manpower shortages is beforethey develop," as the President said in his 1966Manpower Report.
An awareness of the importance of planningahead has brought about increased activity inmanpower forecasting. The projections of man-power requirements and supply developed by theDepartment of Labor have been extended to sev-eral hundred occupations and industries 72 from amuch smaller number a few years ago. Specialstudies of prospective manpower needs and theincrease in training rates required to meet themalso have been made in the health occupations 73and a few other important fields known to havesevere recruitment problems. This research needsto be expanded and further refined, and the re-sults must be widely applied in the planning ofprofessional, technical, and vocational educationand on"-the-job training.
The development of current employment statis-tics by occupation is another area where furtherprogress is needed. Such statistics are not now
73 These projections will be presented in "Tomorrow's Man-power Needs National Manpower Projections and a Guide toTheir Use as a Tool in Developing State and Area ManpowerProjections," to be published by the U.S. Department of Labor,Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 1068.
73 See Health Manpower, 1966-75A study of Itequirententoand SupplY (Washington : U.s. Department of Labor, Bureau ofLabor Statistics, Sun° 1967), Report No. 323.
76
available in the detail essential to establish a soundfactual basis for projecting manpower require-ments or for dealing wi.4? many manpowerproblems. Current information on the numbersemployed' in different occupations is also requiredto indicate the changing supply of manpower inkey occupations and as a base line for determiningthe significance of data on 'job opportunities.
Employment data are available annually for en-gineering, scientific, and technical occupations anda few others, based on industry surveys. And theDepartment of Labor has begun a program aimedat collection of more comprehensive occupationalemployment data on a regular basis. This programneeds to be improved upon and greatly expanded,to cover all significant occupations.
Another great gap in the arsenal of manpowerinformation relates to private industry trainingprograms and their contributions to meeting skillrequirements. The Department of Labor is de-veloping a new survey of formal training pro-grams in industry, which is scheduled to belaunched during 1968. But this will not coverthe vast and difficult area of informal training,through which most workers acquire their occu-pational skills (according to a limited 1962 sur-vey, which is still the major source of informationon the subject) .
A Task Force on Occupational Training hasbeen established by the Secretary of Labor andthe Secretary of Commerce. As directed by thePresident in his 1967 Manpower Report, this taskforce ". . . will survey training programs operatedby private industry, and will recommend waysthat the Federal Government can promote andassist private training programs."
While focusing on the measures needed tostrengthen occupational training, the task forcewill also direct its attention to the gaps in informa-tion as to how workers have acquired and shouldacquire their skills. This country will face anenormous training task in the next several yearsto meet the demand for craftsmen and other highlytrained workers indicated by the Department'sprojections of manpower requirements. A com-prehensive system of reporting on occupationaltraining would aid greatly in appraising achieve-ments and needs and in coordinating Federaltraining programs with private industry's muchlarger training activities.
4
Toward the Development of Manpower Indicators
How far have we come in this exploratory ef-fort toward improved quantitative assessment ofmanpower problems and progress? In all the prob-lem areas considered, some approach to quantifica-tion of recent gains and continuing deficienciesto identification and measurement of the mosturgent current problemshas been possible. In afew areas, fairly sophisticated indicators are athand. But in others, all that is now available arelimited and often fragmeh, .ry statistical indica-tionsrather than indicators, in any formal senseof the termof where we stand and the directionin which we are moving in relation to desiredobjectives. In some important areas, work hasscarcely begun.
The development of a comprehensive set of man-power measures or indicators will depend onprogress in filling the data gaps pointed out inall sections of the chapter. This is no small as-signment.. In measuring manpower problems, over-all national estimates can be as inadequate as frag-mentary data for particular groups. In every areaof worker well-being, it is essential to avoid broadgeneralizations that can mask crucial differences,for example, between Negroes and whites, slumdwellers and suburbanites, men and women, youthand adults. And assessments of labor shortages andmanpower requirements have little meaning unlessfocused on particular occupations, industries, andlocal areas.
Manpower indicators must not be limited to por-traying what is happening to the work force gen-erally or the Nation as a whole. They must be avail-able for the kinds of population subgroups justsuggested, and also for individual cities and evenlarge slum neighborhoods. To a steadily increasingextent, manpower program decisions are beingmade at the level of the city and the neighborhood.And new ventures to improve the well-being ofworkers and their families are likely to dependheavily on the ability of local people to formulateplans of implementation. If this is to be done ef-fectively, measures of progress toward objectivesmust be available for the geographic unit whereresponsibility for progress is lodged, and wherethe means are available for taking corrective stepswhen a reading of the indicators suggests that thisis necessary.
Intelligent action at the national level also re-quires geographic and other detail in indicators.Resources need to be concentrated where the prob-lems are concentrated, so that greater evenness ofopportunity can be achieved among cities and re-gions. Urgent problems need to be spotted whereand when they occur, so that they can be con-tained. uld as already suggested, developmentsaffecting even a major segment of society may belost in figures for the Nation as a whole.
Progress toward a system of manpower indica-tors is rendered the more difficult by this need fordetailed measures for population subgroups andlocal areas, as well as for the country generally.It is complicated even more by the wide range ofproblem areas that must be taken into account.But the development of a set of indicators is,nevertheless, to be sought as a long-term goal.
What is encompassed in looking ahead towardmar. power indicators is the need for systematicmeasurement over timefor a comprehensive, con-tinuing, and yet dynamic set of measures, whichwill make possible analysis of trends and changesover the years in all major manpower problemareas and also of the interrelationships amongthese areas and of their relationships to othereconomic and social developments.
INDICATORS OF EMERGING PROBLEMS
The completion of a detailed set of descriptiveindicators in all areas touched on in this chapterwould be only one stephowever long and still farfrom accomplishmentin the creation of measuresto aid in the attainment of manpower objectives.Despite all the inherent difficulties and hazards oflooking ahead at events to come, it should be pos-sible, within a limited area, to pinpoint difficultproblems as they emerge and even to achieve someforewarning of them from knowledge of howevents affect one another. If the antecedents of aproblem can be identified, this can help in antici-pating the problem itself.
To some extent, this approach has already beenused. From the postwar upsurge in birth rates, forexample, fairly exact predictions were made of theimpending rise in school enrollments and in thenumbers of teachers and classrooms that would be
77
needed. Population figures, by age group, and dataon rising standards of medical care have been usedto predict the growing demand for medical andnursing personnel. Rising agricultural productiv-ityowing to the introduction of the cottonpick-ing machine and the manifold other advances infarm technologyled to predictions of continueddisplacement of farmworkers. The consequences oftheir displacement in terms of increased over-crowding and poverty in city slums were also fore-seen by a few analysts, although not widelyrecognized.
A few illustrative suggestions follow as to thekinds of innovative indexes that might, with care-ful analysis, give warning of impending problemsor of a worsening or improvement in existing ones :
People reaching 45 years of age in jobs thatare disappearing. It is known that once dis-placed, older workers have great difficulty be-coming reemployed, especially if they aretrained in an obsolescent occupation and havelimited education. If the indicator shows abunching of people in this situation, special re-training programs and other measures couldbe undertaken in advance to protect themagainst prolonged unemployment.
78
The skill requirement of jobs. If an indica-tor were available that measured the real skillrequirements of jobs, rather than merely for-mal hiring standards, training programs couldbe planned more efficiently. Such an indicatorwould be particularly helpful in foreseeingthe problems facing young workers, especiallyschool dropouts, and in efforts to develop jobopportunities for the disadvantaged.
The minimum age at whielb employers hire.Practically nothing is known about the mini-mum ages employers specify in hiring andthe relation these may have to the high ratesof youth unemployment. If an indicatorshows that the customary minimum age isbeing advanced, trouble can be expected asschool leavers find they are not old enoughto enter employment. Special efforts to en-courage modifications of employers' mini-mum-age spet:fteations or, failing that, spe-cial transitional arrangements might be calledfor, to bridge the gap between school andwork for many youth.
Trends in the educibtionaZ achievement ofgm youth. If such sin indicator shows a de-terioration in the educational achievement, ofyouth going to slum schools, an increase inthe employment problems of these youth canbe expected. To prevent this, it might be neces-sary to find new avenues to remedial educa-tion and also to intensify efforts to improvethe quality of slum schools.
Satisfaction of slum residents with, theirjobs. An indicator showing a sharp decreasein job satisfaction in the slums might beviewed with concern us a predictor of intensi-fying unrest.
The most disadvantaged groups in our societyf or example, ex-prisoners and the physically .andmentally handicappedare lost sight of altogetherin present economic and social statistics. And in-formation for the smaller, also highly disadvan-taged, ethnic minority groupsMexican Ameri-cans, Puerto Ricans, American Indiansis ex-tremely inadequate (as emphasized earlier in thischapter) . For each of these groups, indicatorsshould be developed showing the relative differ-ences between them and the population generallyin unemployment, labor force participation, oc-cupations, earnings, and educational attainment.These indicators would show from year to yearwhether and where the gaps between these groupsand the population. norms are widening or narrow-ing and would thus help greatly to stimulate andguide program action.
The existence of opportunities for meaningfulparticipation in activities other than paid employ-ment is another area where possible indicatorsmight be explored. The increase in leisure time,the lengthening of the average lifespan, and thetrend toward earlier retirement all point to theimportance, both for the individual and for so-ciety, of widening opportunities for service on anonpaid basis. A recent survey of volunteer workprovides some summary data on this subject." Butno measures are yet available of the contributionvolunteers are making in meeting social needs, norof the potentials for further service in this area,nor of the numbers of people in different life situil-tions who might welcome such opportunities forsocial involvement.
111.001011.1.10.1611
14 "A Survey of Volunteer Work, 1905," to be published by theU.S. Department of Labor in 1068.
RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER AREAS OFSOCIAL CONCERN
If indicators were available for all areas ofsocial concernnot only manpower but also edu-cation, health, family stability, crime, and soforthit should become possible to trace an inter-coimected series of happenings throughout thefabric of society. This kind of analysis would notonly throw light on the interrelationships betweendifferent social problems but also aid in identifyingcritical points of intervention, where remedial ac-tion might be most effective.
The relationship between unemployment andfamily sl ability described in the Department ofLabor publication, The Negro Family, The Casefor National Action, provides one example of thevalue of considering manpower and other socialdata together. In that study it was found that asunemployment increases, family separation ratesalso increase; and when unemployment recedes, sodo separations. While such a statistical relation-ship leaves the dynamics of the situation unex-plained, it gives reason for some optimism that theprovision of jobs could be a major factor in en-abling families to stay together.
For further illustration, the rate at which peo-ple are incarcerated in State prisons is comparedwith the national unemployment rate in chart 18.It can be seen that the two indicators have almostidentical movements."
Almost, as impressive a relationship was ob-tained in a study comparing changes in the rate ofunemployment and the suicide rate for 45- to 54-year -old males over a 30-year period." With eachupward or downward movement of the unemploy-ment percentage, the suicide rate changed with re-markable similarity. Finally, an only recently re-ported study of the epidemiology of mental illnessestablished a close correlation between unemploy-ment levels in the State of New York and the rateof admissions to mental hospitals.77
75 Many problems exist in trying to construct a satisfactoryindex of crime. The one used here relates only to persons tried,found guilty, and turned over to State prisons, Many crimes arenot reported ; others are not solved ; and still others result inconfinement in penal institutions other than State prisons,
co Brian MaeMahon, Samuel Johnson, and Thomas Pugh, "Rela-tion of Suicide Rates to Social Conditions," Publfo Health Re-port8, April 1903, pp. 285-293.
77 M. Harvey Brenner, "Economic Change and Mental Hospital-ization ; New York State, 1010-1900," Social Payelliatry, Decem-ber 1007, pp. 180%88.
CHART 18
State prison incarcerations andnational unemployment rates have
parallel trends.Incarcerations per
100,000 population
50
National
unemployment rate
8.0
42
40
38
36
0
Incarcerationsin State prisons
1952 1959 1965
Source: U.S. Department of Labor. Data on incarcerations fromU.S. Department of Justice.
6.0
4.0
2.0
When relationships such as these are found byplacing indicators side by side, intensive investi-gation is warranted to uncover the nature of therelationship. For example, if the availability ofjobs should turn out to be a critical factor in yearlyvariations in the felony rate, this would be a find-ing warranting wide attention.,
The availability of carefully constructed indi-cators in various social areas, which are now beingdeveloped under the leadership of the Departmentof Health, Education, and Welfare, should aidgreatly in uncovering such basic relationships.
CONCLUSION
Despite all the informational gaps and dataneeds that have been pointed out, the statisticsnow available in this country are probably moresophisticated and also more comprehensive than
79
those of any other nation. However, many of ourpresent statistical series were developed becausea pressing problem had overtaken the country.
The measurement of manpower trends must notonly keep pace with the development of problems;it should precede them, so that they can be antici-pated and prepared for. Advances in the socialsciences and statistics provide, at least potentially,the knowledge and technical capacity required forthis leadtime. And the opportunity thus presentedshould not be passed by.
The improvements and supplementation of man-power. statistics suggested in this chapter form atentative agenda for the government agencies andprivate organizations involved in this field of fact-finding and research. Decisions on priorities foraction will be influenced not only by judgments asto the degree of need for a particular type of databut also by questions of technical feasibility, rela-
00
tive costs, and budgetary resources. The Depart-ment of Labor, working through internal and ex-ternal research committees, will take the lead indetermining priorities among these informationalneeds, in formulating plans to meet them, and inactually developing new and improved manpowerindicators. It is hoped that, at the same time, pri-vate researchers and research organizations willmake large contributions in many areas.
Progress toward the development of manpowerindicators will require not merely data gatheringbut also extensive research on conceptual and tech-nical problems and on the interpretation and re-finement of the indicators developed. To test thevalidity and utility of existing measures, to evolvemore effective ones, and to identify areas wherenew measures are needed will be continuing re-search challenges if a system of manpower indica-tors is to become a fruitful reality.
