Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking:A Test of the ‘Liberation Hypothesis’
Rhys HesterPost-Doctoral Research Fellow
Robina Institute of Criminal Law and Criminal JusticeUniversity of Minnesota Law School
Todd K. HartmanLecturer in Quantitative Methods
Sheffield Methods [email protected]
http://tkhartman.staff.shef.ac.uk/
October 1, 2014Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Brief Bio: My Research Interests
Political Psychology / Behaviour (Individual-level)1 Intergroup Relations and Identity
Prejudice / Inequality(e.g., Racial, Ethnic, Partisan, Economic, and ReligiousGroups)
2 Attitudes and Persuasion
Framing, Campaigns, Information-Processing, and Analogies
Quantitative Research Methods
Survey ResearchExperimental Design and AnalysisStructural Equation Modeling
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Global Incarceration Rates
Source: International Centre for Prison Studies
U.S. Outpaces World in Prison Population
U.S. Outpaces World in Prison Population
Incarcerated Population Increases Over Time
Incarceration Rate Increases Over Time
Justice Blind?
Minorities Disproportionately Imprisoned
Research Question
Given that racial disparities exist in the U.S. justice system,when are they most likely to occur?
Criminal Sentencing Decisions
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Research Question
Given that racial disparities exist in the U.S. justice system,when are they most likely to occur?
Criminal Sentencing Decisions
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Theory
‘Liberation Hypothesis’ [Kalven & Zeisel (1966)]
Clear evidence; favours one side
Jurors constrained; decisionmaking on relevant case facts
Ambiguous evidence; no easy favourite
Jurors ’liberated’ to consider extra-legal factors
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Theory
‘Liberation Hypothesis’ [Kalven & Zeisel (1966)]Clear evidence; favours one side
Jurors constrained; decisionmaking on relevant case facts
Ambiguous evidence; no easy favourite
Jurors ’liberated’ to consider extra-legal factors
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Theory
‘Liberation Hypothesis’ [Kalven & Zeisel (1966)]Clear evidence; favours one side
Jurors constrained; decisionmaking on relevant case facts
Ambiguous evidence; no easy favourite
Jurors ’liberated’ to consider extra-legal factors
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes[Spohn & Cederblom (1991); Spohn & DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Offender
For minor offenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced tolonger prison terms than whites.Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to beincarcerated than whites.
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes[Spohn & Cederblom (1991); Spohn & DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Offender
For minor offenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced tolonger prison terms than whites.Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to beincarcerated than whites.
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes[Spohn & Cederblom (1991); Spohn & DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Offender
For minor offenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced tolonger prison terms than whites.Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to beincarcerated than whites.
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes[Spohn & Cederblom (1991); Spohn & DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Offender
For minor offenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced tolonger prison terms than whites.
Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to beincarcerated than whites.
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes[Spohn & Cederblom (1991); Spohn & DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Offender
For minor offenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced tolonger prison terms than whites.Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to beincarcerated than whites.
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
What Evidence? Testing the Liberation Hypothesis
N = 17,643 Cases
South Carolina Circuit Courts
All Criminal Cases for FY 2001
Non-guidelines State
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Profile: South Carolina
Pop.: 4.8 m
White = 64%
Black = 28%
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Profile: South Carolina
Population: 4.8 m
White = 64%
Black = 28%
Prison Pop.: 21.9 k
White = 34%
Black = 64%
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Measures: Overview
Prison Sentence Decision
Case Characteristics
Offense Seriousness (1-5)Commitment Score (1-12)Type of Crime (Violent, Drug, Property, Other)Guilty at Trial (v. Plea)
Offender Characteristics
Criminal History (1-5)Gender (Male v. Female)Age (15-81 yrs. old)Race (Black v. White)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Measures: Overview
Prison Sentence Decision
Case Characteristics
Offense Seriousness (1-5)Commitment Score (1-12)Type of Crime (Violent, Drug, Property, Other)Guilty at Trial (v. Plea)
Offender Characteristics
Criminal History (1-5)Gender (Male v. Female)Age (15-81 yrs. old)Race (Black v. White)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Measures: Overview
Prison Sentence Decision
Case Characteristics
Offense Seriousness (1-5)Commitment Score (1-12)Type of Crime (Violent, Drug, Property, Other)Guilty at Trial (v. Plea)
Offender Characteristics
Criminal History (1-5)Gender (Male v. Female)Age (15-81 yrs. old)Race (Black v. White)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Measures: Outcome Variable
Prison Sentence Decision(2-stage)
Binary Decision to Incarcerate(Yes /No)
If yes (hurdle), expectedminimum prison sentence(in months)Range: 1 month to 360months (30 years)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Measures: Outcome Variable
Prison Sentence Decision(2-stage)
Binary Decision to Incarcerate(Yes /No)
If yes (hurdle), expectedminimum prison sentence(in months)Range: 1 month to 360months (30 years)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Measures: Outcome Variable
Prison Sentence Decision(2-stage)
Binary Decision to Incarcerate(Yes /No)
If yes (hurdle), expectedminimum prison sentence(in months)Range: 1 month to 360months (30 years)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Distribution of Prison Sentence DV
Measures: Key Independent Variable (Moderator #1)
Offense Seriousness - SC Classification Scheme
1 Misdemeanors (15%)
Vandalism, Political Intimidation
2 Class F Felonies (46%)
Stalking, Illegal Conduct at Elections
3 Class E Felonies (20%)
Harm to a Child, Reckless Homicide
4 Class D Felonies (11%)
Burglary, Distribution of Meth
5 Class A, B, C, or Exempt Felonies (8%)
Murder, Kidnapping, Armed Robbery
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Measures: Key Independent Variable (Moderator #2)
Criminal History
(SC Sentencing Commission)
1 None (37%)
2 Minimal (33%)
3 Moderate (17%)
4 Considerable (6%)
5 Extensive (7%)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Analytic Strategy
Prison Sentence
Count in Months
Positive Integer (y > 0)
Skewed Distribution
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Analytic Strategy
Prison Sentence
Count in Months
Positive Integer (y > 0)
Skewed Distribution
Modeling Strategy
1 Linear Regression (OLS)2 Event Count Models
PoissonNegative Binomial
3 Zero-Inflated & ‘Hurdle’Models
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
HRM: Comparison of Event Count Models
Results: Average Marginal Effects of Predicted Sentence
Results: Average Marginal Effects of Pr(Prison)
Marginal Effect of Being Black on Pr(Prison)
Marginal Effect of Being Black on Pr(Prison)
Marginal Effect of Being Black on Sentence Length
Marginal Effect of Being Black on Sentence Length
Conclusion
Support for the ‘Liberation Hypothesis’ (‘When?’ Question)Black Offenders Are More Likely (than Whites) to BeIncarcerated...
...at lower levels of Criminal History
Black Offenders Receive Longer Prison Sentences (thanWhites)...
...at lower levels of Offense Seriousness
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Conclusion
Support for the ‘Liberation Hypothesis’ (‘When?’ Question)Black Offenders Are More Likely (than Whites) to BeIncarcerated...
...at lower levels of Criminal History
Black Offenders Receive Longer Prison Sentences (thanWhites)...
...at lower levels of Offense Seriousness
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Normative Implications
Bias Occurs When ‘No One Is Looking’
Black Minor Offenders More Likely (than Whites) to BeBrought Into the Criminal Justice System
1 Loss of Civil Rights2 Future Marred by Criminal Record (jobs, housing, etc.)3 Destabilizes Family Unit4 Voter Disenfranchisement
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking
Questions?