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RadioReportApril, 2010
Contents
Introduction 3
Key Findings 7
Changing Role of Broadcast Radio 11
Leading Web Radio/Streaming Services 17
What Kind of Web Radio/Streaming Service 21
Generates the Most Interest?
Going Mobile 23
Impact of HD Radio in the US 28
Implications 31
APPENDIX 33
The Online Consumer—Audio Profile
About the Study and Vision Critical
Introduction
It’s often said that research works better as a rear view window than as a
windshield. You gain insight into what’s happened, but you get precious
little on what will happen in the future.
Radio Futures 2010 is a modest attempt to change that.
To get a glimpse of the future, we surveyed a representative sample of
3,021 engaged online consumers from Vision Critical’s global panels in the
US, Canada and the UK.
Peeking Around the Corner...
By talking to consumers who
are one small step ahead in
their digital behaviour, we
can, if not exactly predict
the future, at least observe
change in progress.
Study Objectives
� Radio Futures 2010 provides a strategic overview of the evolving audio landscape for broadcasters, webcasters and other industry
stakeholders.
� This report looks at the following issues:
– the extent to which the role that broadcast radio plays in listeners’ lives
is changing
– the impact of new audio alternatives on this role
– the types of Internet-only audio services that are gaining traction
– the relative use of Internet-only and broadcast radio applications on the
mobile platform, and
– the impact of HD radio in the US
� By surveying online consumers in the US, Canada and the UK, the
study observes changes in the audio landscape through the lens of
different regulatory and competitive environments.
� Online survey
� Total sample: 3,021 online consumers, aged 18+
� US (n=1,007)
� C (n=1,001)
� UK (n=1,013)
� Email invitations were sent to members of Vision Critical’s
proprietary global panels—providing a representative sample of online
consumers in each country.
� Survey dates: February 26-March 8, 2010
� Final results weighted to represent the age, gender and regional
distribution of the online population of each country
� Developed in association with RAIN (Radio And Internet Newsletter)
How the Research was Conducted
Key Findings
Key Findings 1 of 3
� Reports of broadcast radio’s death are greatly exaggerated.
– On the whole, in the US and Canada, online consumers say that
broadcast radio plays the same role in their lives today that it did a
couple of years ago.
– In the UK, broadcast radio actually has modest momentum, with more
listeners saying that radio now plays a bigger rather than smaller role in
their lives.
� Audio alternatives are gaining significant momentum.
– In particular, many online consumers report that personalized audio
alternatives are playing a bigger role in their lives.
– Specifically:
� MP3 players
� Streaming services that offer songs on demand (e.g., Spotify)
� Podcasts
� Personalizable Web-only radio (e.g., Pandora)
� At this point, the growth of these new audio alternatives appears to be independent of and/or complementary to broadcast radio.
– Past week listeners to Web-only radio or streaming services, podcasts
and even mp3 players are as likely as other online consumers to say that
radio is playing a bigger as opposed to smaller role in their lives than it
was two years ago.
– American and Canadian listeners to SIRIUS/XM satellite radio are
however more likely to say that broadcast radio is now playing a smaller
role, suggesting that satellite radio is more of a displacement medium.
� Pandora is the dominant webcaster in the US, while Spotify leads UK online services.
– More than 1-in-4 listeners to Web-only radio/streaming services in the
US name Pandora as their favourite music service.
– Spotify has a somewhat narrower lead in the UK, with 11% naming it as
their favourite service.
– Canada, where neither service is legally available, is an underdeveloped
market with no dominant player.
Key Findings 2 of 3
� Listeners to Web-only services express a clear preference for personalized vs. one-way broadcast streams.
– Online consumers who have turned to a Web-only music or streaming
service in the past month show a particularly active interest in services
that offer some degree of control.
– This is consistent with the strength shown for Pandora, Spotify and
other personalizable web services.
� Reflecting Pandora’s early success with its iPhone apps, smartphone and iPod Touch users in the US are more likely to listen to apps for Web vs. broadcast radio services on their device.
– In Canada and the UK, smartphone and iPod Touch users are more likely
to use apps for broadcast radio than web-based radio.
� Five years after its launch, HD radio in the US has yet to make a significant impact.
– A little over one-quarter (26%) of online consumers show confirmed
awareness of HD Radio—and fewer than 1-in-10 (9%) know anyone who
has HD Radio.
Key Findings 3 of 3
Changing Role of Broadcast Radio
The role played by broadcast radio in the lives of engaged online consumers is largely holding steady.
28%
22%
32%
45%
54%
47%
28%
24%
22%
US
Canada
UK
Bigger role in my life Same Smaller role in my lifeNet Momentum % bigger — % smaller
even
-2%
+10%
How Role of Broadcast Radio Has Changed Over the Past 2 Years
Qa4 Thinking back over the past couple of years, how has the role that [(AM/FM (AM/FM/DAB in the UK)] radio plays in your life changed?Base: Online consumers, age 18+,in each country—has listened to AM/FM (AM/FM/DAB in the UK)
Momentum for broadcast radio shows different age splits, by country.
Net Momentum: % saying broadcast radio plays bigger role in life in past couple of years minus % saying smaller role
Qa4 Thinking back over the past couple of years, how has the role that each of the following play in your life changed?Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK - has listened to AM/FM (AM/FM/DAB in the UK)
Total even -2% +10%
Male +1% -3% +10%
Female even -2% +10%
Age 18-44 +5% -8% +9%
Age 45+ -5% +4% +11%
Most non-broadcast audio alternatives are gaining momentum.
56%
41%
39%
42%
36%
31%
30%
18%
30%
40%
43%
36%
44%
48%
47%
36%
14%
19%
17%
22%
20%
22%
23%
46%
Bigger role in my life Same Smaller role in my life
MP3s or digital music files on
mp3 player/mobile device
Online service that lets you
stream songs on demand
Podcasts—audio programs
downloaded or streamed
MP3s or CDs through
your computer
Internet-only radio
Audio-only music channels
w/ digital/satellite TV*
SIRIUS/XM satellite radio*
CDs on your stereo
or portable player
Net Momentum % bigger — % smaller
+42%
+22%
+22%
+20%
+16%
+9%
+7%
-28%
How Role of Each Medium Has Changed Over the Past 2 Years (3-country average)
Qa4 Thinking back over the past couple of years, how has the role that each of the following play in your life changed?Base: Online consumers, age 18+,in the US, Canada, and UK; has listened to audio medium
* Asked in US and Canada only
MP3s or digital music files on your
mp3 player/mobile device+36% +46% +44%
Online services that let you
stream songs on demand+16% +7% +36%
Podcasts—audio programs
downloaded or streamed+17% +28% +20%
MP3s or CDs through your
computer+18% +16% +25%
Internet-only radio +22% +11% +13%
Audio-only music channels
w/ digital/satellite TV*+7% +10% n/a
SIRIUS/XM satellite radio* +4% +10% n/a
CDs on your stereo or
portable player-19% -28% -35%
Momentum of audio alternatives largely similar by country—except Web-only and streaming services
Qa4 Thinking back over the past couple of years, how has the role that each of the following play in your life changed?Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK - has listened to each audio medium
The only
jurisdiction
where
Spotify is
legally
available
The only
jurisdiction
where
Pandora is
legally
available
Net Momentum: % saying medium plays “bigger role” in life in past couple of years minus % saying “smaller role”
* Asked in US and Canada only
Satellite radio is the only clear displacement medium for broadcast radio.
Qa4 Thinking back over the past couple of years, how has the role that each of the following play in your life changed?Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK - has listened to AM/FM (AM/FM/DAB in the UK)
* Asked in US and Canada only
+10%
+7%
+5%
-15%
-1%
0
+2%
Among Past Week Listeners to... Net Momentum for Broadcast Radio
Net Momentum (3-country average): % saying broadcast radio plays bigger role in life in past couple of years minus % saying smaller role
SIRIUS/XM satellite radio*
MP3s or digital music files on mp3 player/mobile
device
MP3s or CDs through
your computer
Podcasts—audio programs downloaded or streamed
Internet-only radio or streaming services
CDs on your stereo
or portable player
Audio-only music channels
w/ digital/satellite TV*
Leading Web Radio/Streaming Services
42%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
27%
2%
3%
2%
3%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Listened in past year
Favourite service
Leading mentions (unaided)—among past month listeners to Web-only radio/ music services
QD1. Which online radio stations or music streaming services do you remember listening to in the past year? QD2. And which one would you say is your favourite—the one you listen to most often?Base: Online Consumers in the US, age 18+; listened to online-only radio/ streaming in past month & named a service listened to.
In the US, Pandora dominates.
QD1. Which online radio stations or music streaming services do you remember listening to in the past year? QD2. And which one would you say is your favourite—the one you listen to most often?Base: Online Consumers in the UK, age 18+; listened to online-only radio/ streaming in past month & named a service listened to.
Spotify has made a big impact in the UK, though not on the scale of Pandora in the US.
20%
9%
6%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
11%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
Listened in past year
Favourite service
Leading mentions (unaided)—among past month listeners to Web-only radio/ music services
QD1. Which online radio stations or music streaming services do you remember listening to in the past year? QD2. And which one would you say is your favourite—the one you listen to most often?Base: Online Consumers in Canada, age 18+; listened to online-only radio/ streaming in past month & named a service listened to.
Canada, where neither Pandora nor Spotify is available, has no dominant Web radio/music service.
9%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
7%
2%
3%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
Listened in past year
Favourite service
Leading mentions (unaided)—among past month listeners to Web-only radio/ music services
What Kind of Web Radio/Music Service Generates the Most Interest?
Active interest is highest for Web music services that offer customization.
% Very interested (3-Country average)—among past month listeners to Web-only radio/ music services
53%
37%
34%
33%
26%
24%
Streaming where you can play songs on demand
Radio that offers a wide range of channels you can customize by promoting or deselecting artists
Radio that plays recommendations based on your preferences & others like you
Radio that plays recommendations from music experts based on your preferences
Radio that plays recommendations based on your preferences using computer algorithms
Radio that plays music mixes designed by music experts
Scheduled
Personalized
Q3a-D3f How interested are you in each of the following types of Internet-only radio and music streaming services?Base: Online Consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada, and UK; listened to online-only radio or streaming services in past month
Going Mobile
32%
29%
32%
Qc1/c2 Do you currently use any of the following for any purpose?/Do you currently have access to the Web on the [smartphone / mobile phone / either the smartphone or mobile phone] that you use?
Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK
Just under one-third of online consumers use a smartphone or iPod Touch.
Use a smartphone or iPod Touch for any purpose
29%
10%
21%
12%
27%
12%
Use
smartphone
Use iPod
Touch
Qc1/c2 Do you currently use any of the following for any purpose?/ Do you currently have access to the Web on the [smartphone / mobile phone / either the smartphone or mobile phone] that you use?
Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK
Smartphone platform varies by country—Blackberry leads in North America, iPhone in the UK.
Use BlackBerry 11% 12% 6%
Use iPhone 8% 6% 13%
Use another type
of smartphone10% 3% 11%
US
Canada
UK
33%
24%
48%43%
20%
37%
US Canada UK
Has broadcast radio app
Has web-only radio/streaming service app
Qc4 Do you have any of the following types of applications on your smartphone or iPod Touch?Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK
Reflecting Pandora’s impact, US smartphone/iPod Touch users are more likely to have apps for Web-only services than for broadcast radio.
19%
14%
31%31%
7%
21%
US Canada UK
Listened to broadcast app / past week
Listened to web-only service app / past week
Qc4 Do you have any of the following types of applications on your smartphone or iPod Touch?Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK
More US smartphone/iPod Touch users stream Web-based radio than broadcast radio on their apps.
Impact of HD Radio in the US
Half of all online consumers in the US claim to have heard of HD, but just 1-in-4 can state the benefits.
Qb1a/b Have you ever seen, read or heard about 'HD Radio'?/Based on what you've heard about HD Radio, what would you say are the main benefits to potential listeners? Please be as specific as possible.
Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US
26%
24%
50%
67%
28%
9%
7%
5%
5%
4%
7%
Better, cleaner
sound quality
More stations
It's better/quality
(general)
It's free/
no monthly fees
Less talk, fewer commercials
High definition/like HD TV
(benefit unspecified)
Better music/variety
Other
Have heard of HD Radio; can't name benefits; not clear on what it is
Have never heard of HD Radio
Benefits stated (unaided)
Have heard of HD Radio; can state benefits
Under 10% of online consumers have an HD radio in their household, or know anyone who has one.
Qb1c Do you, does someone in your household, and/or does someone you know have an HD Radio?Base: Online consumers, age 18+, in the US
2%
6%
91%
Have an HD Radio
No one I know has one
Someone else in HH has one
Someone else I know has one
1%
Implications
Implications
� The research indicates an ongoing role for traditional broadcast radio
in the digital future.
– As many online consumers say that radio is playing a bigger role in their
lives over the past couple of years as say that it is playing a smaller role.
� But the greatest growth opportunities are most likely to come from
other audio platforms and services.
� Design of new products and services should focus on delivering those
benefits possible via IP, as opposed to traditional broadcast
technology.
– Specific areas most likely to meet with consumer acceptance:
� Personalizable music streaming
� On-demand functionality (e.g., podcasts or streamed programs)
� Compelling, interactive mobile apps
APPENDIXOnline Consumers—Audio Profile
33
Base: Online Consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK
Past week listening to broadcast radio*
* Defined for respondents as "AM/FM radio" in US and Canada; as "AM/FM/DAB" in the UK** Asked only in the UK
AN AM, FM OR DAB RADIO STATION (TOTAL) 86% 91% 77%
An AM or FM radio station over
a traditional radio83% 85% 68%
An AM or FM radio station streamed over your
computer26% 23% 24%
An AM or FM radio station on your
mobile phone or smartphone10% 4% 14%
An AM or FM radio station on your
iPod or mp3 player17% 10% 12%
An AM, FM or DAB radio station
via Sky/ Freesat**n/a n/a 21%
Base: Online Consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK
Past week listening to Web-only radio or music streaming services
MUSIC STREAMING OR WEB-ONLY RADIO (TOTAL) 32% 16% 32%
An online service that lets you stream specific songs on demand (total)
22% 11% 25%
Online service that streams songs on
demand over computer18% 8% 20%
Online service that streams songs on demand
on mobile phone or smartphone10% 2% 10%
An Internet radio station, available only online (total)
26% 10% 18%
An Internet-only radio station over your
computer20% 7% 13%
An Internet-only radio station on your
mobile phone or smartphone10% 2% 7%
Base: Online Consumers, age 18+, in the US and Canada
Past week listening to Sirius/XM satellite radio*
* Asked only in the US and Canada
SIRIUS/XM SATELLITE RADIO (TOTAL) 17% 12%
Sirius/XM satellite radio over a
regular satellite radio14% 10%
Sirius/XM satellite radio streamed
over your computer6% 3%
Sirius/XM satellite radio on your
mobile phone or smartphone4% 1%
Past week listening to other forms of audio
CDs on your stereo or portable CD player 52% 49% 53%
MP3s or CDs through your computer 46% 51% 50%
MP3s or other digital music files on your iPod on
mp3 player/mobile device45% 47% 50%
YouTube music videos 36% 38% 37%
Audio-only music channels w/ digital/satellite TV* 30% 25% n/a
Podcasts—audio programs downloaded or streamed 19% 17% 21%
HD Radio** 3% n/a n/a
Base: Online Consumers, age 18+, in the US, Canada and the UK
* Asked only in the US and Canada** Asked only in the US
APPENDIXAbout the Study and Vision Critical
About the Study
� Radio Futures 2010 is funded independently by Vision Critical to share insights with broadcasters, webcasters and other industry
stakeholders.
� Key findings were presented at RAIN Summit conferences in Toronto
and Las Vegas in March and April, 2010.
� The survey sample was randomly drawn from members of Vision
Critical’s global panels in the US, Canada and the UK.
– The rigorous recruiting practices used for these online panels ensure
representation across a wide range of demographic and psychographic
segments. Panel members pass through screening and a double opt-in
process to ensure motivated and responsive panelists.
– The margin of error—measuring sampling variability—on this study is ±
3.1% for samples drawn from each of the three country panels. Sampling
variability would be higher on smaller subsamples.
About Vision Critical
� Vision Critical is a strategic interactive research company combining
technology, researchers and global panels. We help companies reduce
research costs while generating engaging and insightful relationships
with their consumers.
� Vision Critical uses a visual approach, panel technology and our own
global panels to embrace markets with the click of a mouse.
� The company has offices across North America, Europe and Australia.
www.visioncritical.com
About the Vision Critical Radio Practice
� Vision Critical provides a new generation of radio research services
designed to meet changing times.
� We combine cost effective, sound research practices with pioneering
online research technology and panel expertise.
� The result is a new way of understanding why, in the face of so much
change, so many people continue to listen to radio and what makes
them choose one station over the other.
� You can find out more about our comprehensive range of research tools
for radio at: www.visioncritical.com/radio
Jeff Vidler
Senior VP & Managing Director, Radio
Corina Death
Senior Research Manager, Radio
Contact: