69
04/08/2017 1 rage against the Suggy (AKA Chris Sumner), Online Privacy Foundation, DEF CON 25 machine 2016
04/08/2017
1
rage against the
Suggy (AKA Chris Sumner), Online Privacy Foundation, DEF CON 25
machine
2016
04/08/2017
2
3.0
2.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
18 - 34 35 - 54 55 +
Female
Male
Age Group
Ag
reem
en
t w
ith
Noth
ing
to H
ide
Ar
gu
men
t
“if you’ve got nothing to hide, you’ve got nothing to fear”
Leave
Remain
04/08/2017
3
2013
Predicting Susceptibility to Social Bots on Twitter
Chris Sumner & Dr. Randall Wald
04/08/2017
4
20122011
Using Attitudes to Online Surveillance to
Explore the Efficacy of Psychographic
Marketing in Political Campaigns.
04/08/2017
5
04/08/2017
6
04/08/2017
7
1. Why are people so divided?
04/08/2017
8
04/08/2017
9
04/08/2017
10
HighAuthoritarianismLow
Fr
equ
en
cy
Snowflakes Deplorables
HighAuthoritarianismLow
Fr
equ
en
cy
04/08/2017
11
BLACK
&
WHITE
BLACK
&
WHITE
Vs
Gr
Grey Grey Grey
Grey Grey Grey
Grey Grey Grey
Grey Grey Grey
Grey Grey Grey
04/08/2017
12
Vs
04/08/2017
13
In-Group
Out-Group
Vs
self-reliance
curiosity
independence
to be considerate
obedience
good manners
respect for elders
to be well-behaved
Feldman & Stenner, 1997
Child Rearing Questions
04/08/2017
14
Vsself-reliance
curiosity
independence
to be considerate
obedience
good manners
respect for elders
to be well-behaved
Vs
Vs
Vs
Most important for a child to have?
Study
Method & Results
04/08/2017
15
Surveys over time
A1
A2
B1
B2
March April May
175998
663
576
N = 2,412
February
“You have
nothing to fear,
if you have
nothing to hide”
A1 B1 A2 B2
04/08/2017
16
A1 B1 A2 B2
A1 B1 A2 B2
“It is acceptable that
immigrants and visitors from
potentially dangerous
countries should have to
reveal their social media
account passwords to UK
border agents.”
04/08/2017
17
A1 B1 A2 B2
“The dark net should be shut down”
A1 B1 A2 B2
“Companies should be not be allowed
to develop technologies that prevent
law enforcement from accessing your
online conversations.”
04/08/2017
18
Surveys over time
A1
A2
B1
B2
March April May
175998
663
576
N = 2,412
February
Surveys over time
A1
A2
B1
B2
March April May
175998
663
576
N = 2,412
February
04/08/2017
19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Agree with
"nothing to hide"
Support
wiretapping
Ban Anti
Surveilllance
Tech
Shut down dark net
Pre attack Post attack
Survey A1 (pre) v A2 (post)
*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Agree with "nothing to
hide"
Support wiretapping Support extreme vetting
Pre attack Post attack
Survey B1 (pre) v B2 (post)(B2 conducted 41 days after attack)
04/08/2017
20
Pre attack (A1) Post attack (A2) Post attack (B2)Pre attack (B1)
Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear.2.0
1.0
0.5
0
1.5
Au
th
or
ita
ria
nis
m (
Mea
n)
04/08/2017
21
Overlapping DistributionsF
requ
en
cy
Authoritarianism
Disagree with “Nothing to Hide”
Agree with “Nothing to Hide”
2. What Influences Their Views?
04/08/2017
22
Authoritarianism
Probability of
Support for
Surveillance
100%
50%
0%
Baseline Support
HighLow
Probability of
Support for
Surveillance
100%
50%
0%
threat increases [support] among those HIGHER in authoritarianism
AuthoritarianismHighLowFeldman & Stenner 1997,
Feldman 2003
04/08/2017
23
Probability of
Support for
Surveillance
100%
50%
0%
threat increases [support] among those LOWER in authoritarianism
High Perceived Threat
AuthoritarianismHighLow
Hetherington & Suhay 2011
what good are high-minded principles if you are dead?
“
“
Source: Hetherington & Weiler
04/08/2017
24
AuthoritarianismHighLow
Probability of
Support for
Surveillance
100%
50%
0%
“Both are partly right”
High Perceived Threat
Anger
Anxiety
Vasilopoulos, Pavlos,
Marcus, & Foucault. 2011
Study
Method & Results
04/08/2017
25
How worried are you that you
personally might become a
victim of a terrorist attack??
Study
Method & Results
A1 B1 A2 B2
Pr
ob
ab
ilit
y
Authoritarianism
Logistic Regression
04/08/2017
26
Hetherington & Suhay((2011)Image source: Hetherington, Marc J., and Jonathan D. Weiler. Authoritarianism and polarization in American politics. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
A1 B1 A2 B2
Pr
ob
ab
ilit
y
Authoritarianism
Nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
04/08/2017
27
A1 B1 A2 B2
Extreme Vetting
Pr
ob
ab
ilit
y
Authoritarianism
04/08/2017
28
Pr
ob
ab
ilit
y
A1 B1 A2 B2
Shut Down the Dark Net (Agree / Disagree)
Authoritarianism
3. How Effective is Psychographic Targeting?
04/08/2017
29
Age, Sex, Geography, FB Interests
Personality
Age, Sex, Geography, FB Interests
Personality
04/08/2017
30
Age / Sex,
Geography,
FB Interests
Low Authoritarian High Authoritarian
Age / Sex,
Geography,
FB Interests
Low Authoritarian
StudyMethod & Results
04/08/2017
31
Age & Sex
18 - 35 35 To 55 55 and over
Age Group
Au
th
or
ita
ria
nis
m
Female
Male
EU Referendum Vote
Males of any age
Females under 35Males of any age
Females 35 and over
High AuthoritarianLow Authoritarian
04/08/2017
32
Geography
O C E A NRentfrow PJ, Jokela M, Lamb ME (2015) Regional Personality Differences in Great Britain. PLOS ONE 10(3): e0122245. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122245http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0122245
Geography Rentfrow, Jokela, Lamb 2015
04/08/2017
33
O
C
E A N
High
Low
Big 5 & Authoritarianism
Sibley, C. G., & Duckitt, J. (2008). Personality and prejudice:
A meta-analysis and theoretical review. Personality and
Social Psychology Review, 12(3), 248-279.
Big
5
Tr
ait
Sc
or
es
Conscientiousness
Op
en
ness (
R)
High Auth
Low Auth
04/08/2017
34
Op
en
ness (
R)
High Auth
Low Auth
Conscientiousness
Conscientiousness
Op
en
ness (
R)
High Auth
Low Auth
Conscientiousness
04/08/2017
35
Basildon,
Chelmsford
Dudley
Thurrock,
Mansfield,
Market Weighton,
Rotherham,
Swindon
Cambridge,
Liverpool,
Manchester,
Edinburgh,
Hackney
High AuthoritarianLow Authoritarian
Actual
Vote
Correctly classified 78.16%
Predicted
Vote
04/08/2017
36
PreferenceTool.com
Facebook Interests
Note: We did not use the PreferenceTool.com. See slide notes for further information
Liberalism,
The Guardian
Conservatism,
Mail Online
High AuthoritarianLow Authoritarian
04/08/2017
37
38% 32% 26%
46%
61%L
ev
el o
f
Ag
reem
en
t
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
All
38%32% 26%
46%
61%
Lev
el o
f
Ag
reem
en
t
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
All Low auth
(A,S,G)
A,S,G =
Age, Sex &
Geography
04/08/2017
38
38%32% 26%
46%
61%L
ev
el o
f
Ag
reem
en
t
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
All Low auth
(A,S,G)
High auth
(A,S,G)
38%32%
25%
46%
61%
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
*
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
Lev
el o
f
Ag
reem
en
t
All Low auth
(A,S,G)
High auth
(A,S,G)
Low auth
(A,S,G,P)
High auth
(A,S,G,P)
A,S,G =
Age, Sex,
Geography &
Personality
04/08/2017
39
38%32%
25%
46%
61%
***
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
*
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
Lev
el o
f
Ag
reem
en
t
All Low auth
(A,S,G)
High auth
(A,S,G)
Low auth
(A,S,G,P)
High auth
(A,S,G,P)
36%32% 25%
46%
61%
Leve
l of
Agr
eem
ent
***
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
% people who agree with “Nothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear”
All Low auth
(A,S,G)
High auth
(A,S,G)
Low auth
(A,S,G,P)
High auth
(A,S,G,P)
04/08/2017
40
4. How Persuasive Are
Targeted Ads?
Image with permission from : Oscar Bolton Green
“If you know the personality of the people you’re
targeting, you can nuance your messaging to resonate
more effectively with those key audience groups”—Alexander Nix, Cambridge Analytica
04/08/2017
41
Hirsh, Kang & BodenhausenPhone study (2012)
Hirsh, Kang & BodenhausenPhone study (2012)
With XPhone, you’ll
always be where the
excitement is
04/08/2017
42
Hirsh, Kang & BodenhausenPhone study (2012)
Stay safe and
secure with the
Xphone
Matz, Popov, Kosinski, Stillwell
Matz, S., Popov, V., Kosinski, M. & Stillwell, D (2015). Using The Big Five For Customised Advertising On Facebook. Poster session presented at 16th Annual Meeting of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Long Beach, CA, USA
Aimed at Introverts Aimed at Extraverts
04/08/2017
43
Study
Method & Results
Image with permission from : Oscar Bolton Green
04/08/2017
44
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
Ads aimed at…
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
04/08/2017
45
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
04/08/2017
46
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
04/08/2017
47
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
Self reported levels of
authoritarianism
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
How persuasive people
thought the ad was
04/08/2017
48
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
04/08/2017
49
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
04/08/2017
50
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High0
5
10
15
20
Low Medium High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthTarget Audience
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
Facebook Target Audience
04/08/2017
51
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
Ratio (%)
Likes & Shares by Reach
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
04/08/2017
52
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
04/08/2017
53
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
04/08/2017
54
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Low High
Pro
Anti
High Auth Low AuthDesigned to appeal to
But does persuasion work?
04/08/2017
55
“Those who have received a postal letter from the interest group which argued
for the benefits of TTIP have considerably more favourable(sic) attitudes
towards this trade deal.”
0 5 10 15 20
Jungherr, Wuttke, Mader, Schoen
Survey
Postal
5. Debunking Propaganda
04/08/2017
56
A C
B D
A C
B D
04/08/2017
57
Control Questions
A – Control Condition #1 Group B – Control Condition #2
Rash Got
Worse
Rash Got
Better
Rash Got
Better
Rash Got
Worse
Patients who did
use the new skin
cream
223 75
Patients who did
use the new skin
cream
223 75
Patients who did
NOT use the
new skin cream
107 21
Patients who did
NOT use the new
skin cream
107 21
A – People who used the skin cream
were more likely to get BETTER
than those didn’t
A – People who used the skin cream were
more likely to get BETTER than those
didn’t
B – People who used the skin cream were
more likely to get WORSE than those
didn’t
B – People who used the skin cream
were more likely to get WORSE than
those didn’t
Control Questions
A – Control Condition #1 Group B – Control Condition #2
Rash Got
Worse
Rash Got
Better
Rash Got
Better
Rash Got
Worse
Patients who did
use the new skin
cream
223 75
Patients who did
use the new skin
cream
223 75
Patients who did
NOT use the
new skin cream
107 21
Patients who did
NOT use the new
skin cream
107 21
A – People who used the skin cream
were more likely to get BETTER
than those didn’t
A – People who used the skin cream were
more likely to get BETTER than those
didn’t
B – People who used the skin cream were
more likely to get WORSE than those
didn’t
B – People who used the skin cream
were more likely to get WORSE than
those didn’t
04/08/2017
58
A C
B D
A C
B D
04/08/2017
59
20%
60%
0%
40%
EU Referendum VotersSkin Cream
Decreases Increases
RashLeave RemainReferendum Vote
20%
60%
0%
40%
EU Referendum VotersImmigration
Decreases Increases Decreases
Rash CrimeLeave RemainReferendum Vote
04/08/2017
60
20%
60%
0%
40%
EU Referendum VotersImmigration
Decreases Increases Decreases Increases
Rash CrimeLeave RemainReferendum Vote
04/08/2017
61
Study
Method & Results
Skin Cream
Decrease Increase
20%
40%
60%
0%
Rash
N = 1,574
Agree DisagreeNothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear
04/08/2017
62
Indicate whether the research shows that online surveillance is likely to increase the terrorist threat or decrease it.
C –Threat Condition #1 Group D –Threat Condition #2
Increase in
Threat
Decrease
in Threat
Decrease
in Threat
Increase in
Threat
Countries with
LEAST pervasive
online
surveillance
223 75
Countries with
LEAST pervasive
online surveillance
223 75
Countries with
MOST pervasive
online
surveillance
107 21
Countries with
MOST pervasive
online surveillance
107 21
A – Countries with the LEAST pervasive online
surveillance were more likely to see a
DECREASE in the terrorist threat
A – Countries with the LEAST pervasive online
surveillance were more likely to see a DECREASE in
the terrorist threat
B – Countries with the LEAST pervasive online
surveillance were more likely to see a INCREASE in
the terrorist threat
B – Countries with the LEAST pervasive online
surveillance were more likely to see an
INCREASE in the terrorist threat
Decreases Increases Increases Increase
20%
40%
60%
0%
Rash
Surveillance increases the threat N = 1,574
Agree DisagreeNothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear
Threat
04/08/2017
63
20%
40%
60%
0%
Surveillance decreases the threat N = 1,574
Decreases Increases Increases Decreases
Rash Threat
Agree DisagreeNothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear
20%
40%
60%
0%
44 & over N = 1,574
Decreases Increases Increases Decreases
Rash Threat
Agree DisagreeNothing to Hide, Nothing to Fear
04/08/2017
64
Conclusions & Discussion
04/08/2017
65
If both sides use this, do the effects equal out?
If both sides use this, do the effects equal out?
04/08/2017
66
Authoritarianism
Pr
ob
ab
ilit
y
Momentum / Public Mood“Shut Down The Dark Net”
Fear
04/08/2017
67
How political ads motivate and persuade voters by appealing to emotionsBrader (2005)
HigherLower Attention
Towards tackling the problem
04/08/2017
68
