Copyright © 2011 Railway Association of Canada. All rights reserved. | Association des chemins de fer du Canada. Tous droits réservés. Copyright © 2011 Railway Association of Canada. All rights reserved. | Association des chemins de fer du Canada. Tous droits réservés.
December 10, 2012
Rail Trends 2012
New York, NY
Rail Trends in Canada
Presented by:
Michael Bourque
President and CEO
Railway Association of Canada
TM
MC
Copyright © 2011 Railway Association of Canada. All rights reserved. | Association des chemins de fer du Canada. Tous droits réservés.
Overview
•Canada’s 55
Railways
•5 Canadian Rail
Trends
•5 Transportation
Supply Chain Trends
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CN testing its LNG powered locomotive
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3
RAC
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Canadian Railways: Reach & Performance
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Rail Trends: 1-Global Demand/ Shipments
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Global 34%
Domestic 22%
Transborder & U.S. 44%
Canadian Class 1 Freight Mix by Geographic Market, 2011
% of 2011 freight revenues
Source: RAC, Statistics Canada
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Rail Trends: 2-Resource Development
The low point for forest products carloads came in 2010 with decreases from peak levels of 66.3%
In 2011, volume rebounded and pre-recession levels are expected to be reached in 2012
Demand for Canadian wood products have increased in the following emerging markets*:
• China: 523%
• India: 304%
• South Korea: 127%
• Taiwan: 81.7%
*: in tonnage terms for Canadian wood products between
2008 and 2011. Industry Canada, Trade Data Online
World Production: Canada’s Ranking
Source: Canadian International Council, 2012
Source: CANSIM Table 404-0002
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Rail Trends: 3-Crude Oil
Continued demand for crude by rail:
Price differentials: between crude oil types, discount because of over-supply
Higher net-backs: rail helps to clear supply-demand dislocations, resulting in higher prices for crude
Market Access: markets not served by pipelines
Growth: Oil production is outpacing pipeline infrastructure development
Economics: Rail can move undiluted heavy oil
Hedge: no long term contracts required; rail being used as a hedge
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Source: TD Securities, 2012
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2011 2012
Car
load
s
Crude by Rail Traffic
CN
CP
UNP
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Rail Trends: 4-Growth of Intermodal
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Source: Railway Association of Canada, 2012
Agricultural Goods & Food 14%
Pulp and Wood Products 10%
Metals & Minerals
25%
Hydrocarburants & Chemicals
21%
Machinery & Manufactured
7%
Intermodal 23%
Canadian Originated Carloads By commodity grouping
2011
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Rail Trends: 5-Low Freight Rates
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0.00¢
1.00¢
2.00¢
3.00¢
4.00¢
5.00¢
6.00¢
7.00¢
8.00¢
9.00¢
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Japan
Russia
US
Revenue per ton-mile in US dollars, Purchasing Power Parity adjusted Source: World Bank, Association of American Railroads
Canada & US are lowest
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Transportation Trends
1. Supply Chain Integration*
I. Interoperability of
infrastructure
II. Funding of joint projects
III. Cross border
harmonization
IV. Information technology/
systems
V. Work practices and safety
Source: Jean Paul Rodrigue - Hofstra University, New York, USA
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Copyright © 2011 Railway Association of Canada. All rights reserved. | Association des chemins de fer du Canada. Tous droits réservés.
Transportation Trends Supply Chain of the Future
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Source: Transport Canada, 2012
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Thank You
Twitter @BourqRail
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