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Rare Earth Elements and Eastern

Mediterranean:Geopolitical and strategic

importance

Sotiris N. Kamenopoulos

PhD Candidate

Technical University of Crete, GR

School of Minerals Resources Engineering

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Outline

• About REEs - Global Reserves• End Uses and Cost Efficiency

• Fields of Importance

• Trade

• Geopolitics

• Challenges/Constraints/Similarities

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• The Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are sixteen elementswith atomic numbers 57 through 71

• Lanthanum (La), Cerium (Ce), Praseodymium (Pr),

Neodymium (Nd), Samarium (Sm), Europium (Eu),

Gadolinium (Gd), Terbium (Tb), Dysprosium (Dy),Holmium (Ho), Erbium (Er), Thulium (Tm), Ytterbium

(Yb), Lutetium (Lu), Yttrium (Y) and Scandium (Sc)

• Divided into two categories due to atomic weight:

- the light REEs (lanthanum through europium), and- the heavy REEs (gadolinium through lutetium).

Description

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CHINA, 55 Mio t

48%

US, 13 Mio t

12%

OTHER

COUNTRIES, 22 Mio t

 20%

 INDIA, 31 mio t

 3%

COMMONWEALTH OF

INDEPENDENT

COUNTRIES,

19 Mio t17%

Global REEs reserves

by country(USGS, 2011) 

• Global reserves: 110 million tones (est.)

• Global production: 133,600 tones (est.)• China produces approximately 97% - 99.8%

(130,000 tones) of global REEs.

• Currently there is no mining of REEs in US and EU.

Global Picture

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End Uses (indicative)Praseodymium • In neodymium-iron-boron magnets (NdFeB)

(electric vehicle motors and wind turbinegenerators)

•  As an alloying agent with magnesium to createhigh-strength metals used in aircraft engines

Neodymium

• In NdFeB permanent magnets (electric vehiclemotors and wind turbine generators)

Dysprosium

• In NdFeB permanent magnets (electric vehiclemotors and wind turbine generators)

 Yttrium

•  As stabilizers for exotic light-weight jet engineturbines and other parts and as a stabilizermaterial in rocket/missiles nose cones

Europium

• In producing white light of helical fluorescent

light bulbs

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Light Bulbs

• 1% improvement in the efficiency of electric

motors would save power equivalent to the

output of a 500MW thermal power station• In 2010 the total US residential lighting

consumption was approximately 202 billion kWh

• Compact fluorescent light bulbs (europium,

terbium and yttrium) use up to 75% less energy

than traditional incandescent light bulbs

Cost Efficiency Examples

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Automotive

• One luxury vehicle may contain more than 100

motors inside

• The efficiency of a REE-based motor is 10% to

20% higher than that of an induction motor.

• The CO2 savings is approximately up to 3.5%

Cost Efficiency Examples

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Relevant Importance of REEs -Trade

Major Importers of REEs (2008)

Imports  Share of importsfrom China 

EU 27  23,013 t 90 %

USA  20,663 t 91 %

JAPAN  34,330 t 91 %

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 AUSTRIA

24%

BELGIUM

2%

SPAIN

2%

ITALY

2%

UNITED KINGDOM

8%NETHERLANDS

16%

GERMANY

8%

FRANCE

38%

REEs imports in EU-27(2008)

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• Total size of REEs market is estimated

between $3-4 billion globally.

• The global market size of REEs-based,end-products is approximately $5 trillion 

 Value added = 1666 times higher… 

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But…it’s not just that…. 

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 “…each SSN-774 Virginia-class submarine would require approximately 9,200 pounds(= 4.17 tones  ) of REEs, each DDG-51 Aegis destroyer would require approximately 5,200pounds (= 2.35 tones  ) of REEs, and each F-35 Lightning II aircraft would requireapproximately 920 pounds (= 400 Kg  ) of REEs …”  

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• “…Examples of their use include smart jammers on advanced fighter aircraft, areadenial weapons systems, and the

electromagnetic rail gun…”  

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Please be reminded again:

The 95-99.8% of global REEs production/market

is controlled by … 

…China 

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China’s demand for REEs

was estimated that will

reach its production

level by the year 2012

• In 2008, China started to quote its REEs exports• In 2010 China’s REEs exports rates were decreased

by 29% compared to 2008

• China has been restricting the supply of its REEs

exports since 2004 at average rate of 13% per year

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Short term and medium term criticality of some REEs

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 “There is oil in the Middle East;there is rare earth in China ”

Deng Xiaoping, Chinese leader(1992)

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Relevant Importance of REEs - Geopolitics

CHINA FORMER USSR

In China, the developmentof REEs mining andindustry is considered to

have a relationship tomodern militarytechnology.

REEs were considered anational secret and verylimited information was

released due to theirapplication to USSR’s defense

systems 

The main effort of China’s

search for global resourcesis to confine additionalREEs from elsewhere tomaintain economic growth.

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September 2010:

An awakening political event

1. A Chinese cargo ship collided with two ships of

the Japanese coastguard.

2. The Japanese arrested the Chinese captain.

3. The Chinese Government announced retaliation

measures and declared that will not supply in

future Japan with REEs (embargo)

…where did this event occurred?

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Senkaku islands geopolitical disputes

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•In that crisis the geopolitical/geostrategic weight of

Chinese REEs proved to be equal to the weight ofthe disputed area (plus the probable resourcesof subject area?)

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 “The Rare Earth Elements are as

strategic a commodity as crude oilor food, and will be for the rest ofthis century ”. 

 ABN AMRO Geopolitical Analysis, 2011

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World Demographics

• World population today: 7.5 billion• World in 2050: 10-10.5 billion (est.)

• The global GDP rate in 2050: 3%(est.)

• Example: today’s Africa’s GDP: $3 trillion 

• Estimation for Africa’s GDP in 2050: $29trillion

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• As the world’s population and the globalGDP increases so are the social,economics, and geopolitical challenges forREEs sustainable mining/development.

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• 100 years ago only a dozen of materialswere needed… 

• Today the chip of a computer containsmore than 60 materials

•  As people get richer they will need more

i-Phones….more REEs…it’s a social need… 

• Where will the resources come from tosustain that growth, and to support greenand emerging technologies?

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• “Social needs” = “Geopoliticalneeds”  

•Where else to find them?

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Marine Exploration

• The marine exploration and mining isa reality.

• Shallow and deep sea mineralformations as a new and near futuresource for REEs and/or other

minerals.

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The first deep sea mine license has been granted onthe EEZ of the Papua New Guinea.

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Employees of Soil Machine Dynamics (SMD) work on a subsea mining machine

being built for Nautilus Minerals at Wallsend, northern England April 14, 2014.

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The future is now… 

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REEs locations in Greece

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SUSTAINAIBLE DEVELOPMENT

• Society (UN)

• Environment (UN)

• Economy (UN)

• Technology (+)

• Geopolitics (+)

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Constraints/Challenges for REEs mining from the Sustainable

Development point of view.

Questions – similarities for South East Med. Hydrocarbonsprojects?

 Vulnerability questions…5s’  

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Opposition: by whom?

• Who will not probably want theseprojects?

• Who would like to harm theseprojects?

• Local/regional/global opposition?

• Opposition fromlocal/regional/globalNGOs/activists/local societies(dispute between countries?)

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Opposition: when?

• Before or during projects?

• Same time in different areas?• Periodically or spontaneously?

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Opposition: Where?

• Near the area of projects?

• Regional?

• At the nearest cities?

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Opposition: How?

• Democratically or Terrorism?

• Help from Media? (Blogs etc. Who

funds them?)• Demonstrations?

• Corruption?

• Bureaucracy?

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• Environmental impacts (disputesbetween countries)?

• Geopolitical unrest (China anti-

Japan demonstrations 2012-Senkaku dispute)?

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•Other local/regional governmental

authorities (i.e. archeologicalauthorities)?

•Which safety laws

(Local/Regional/Global/EU)?

•Local/Regional Bureaucracy?

•Local/Regional Corruption?•Local/Regional Security?

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• Who funds the environmentalactivists (“environmental

terrorism ”)? • How these projects will really affect

SE Med. economies?

• How these projects will really affecttechnological improvement of SEMed. countries?

• Can we avoid “Dutch Disease ”? • Can we avoid the “Resource Curse ”? 

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• Any probability for synergies (i.e hightech hubs) or other similar business

in SE Med.?

• Any way to collaborate in order tocapture the value added of mineralresources in SE Med.?

• Are any other mineral resources in SEMed.?

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•  Any proactive Decision SupportMechanism (DSM) to resolve “issues” in

the area regarding the sustainability ofsubject projects?

•  Any framework proposed for theSustainable Development of SE Med.Mineral Resources?

• Who are the stakeholders?

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DSM

Sustainable Development ofSouth East Mediterranean

Mineral Resources

Environment

Geopolitics/

Geo-economyEconomy Society Technology

 A framework for the sustainable development of SE Med. mineral resources

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• Any area for “soft power ” initiatives?

Synergistic effect :

1 + 1 = ?OR

1 + 1 = 3, 4, 5… 

Does this big picture make sense?

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Does this big picture make sense?

FYROM

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Thank you. Questions?