Session 2 Effect of the Global economic crisis on the growth and

development of small states 

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs

J L Roberts

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Did the Crisis push MDGs off the Global Menu?

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

The MDGs agreed at the UN General Assembly 2000 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerAchieve universal primary educationPromote gender equalityReduce child mortalityImprove maternal healthCombat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseasesEnsure environmental sustainability

Global partnership for development JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

How far have we been thrown off the MDG course by the global financial and economic crisis,

What is the plight of the small and island states, and

How can they best get back on course to re-establish progress?

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Who are the national players in the Crisis?

The Villains: who caused it

The Victims: who were immediately hit

The Innocent bystanders: caught in the debris

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Freedom from Want: the development

Agenda Heads of State or Government are urged to take action in the following areas: 

Poverty: to halve, by 2015 the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day From UN secretary General Kofi Annan’s key proposals presented to the Millennium Summit 2000

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

MDGs Missing data 2005 Commonwealth: Downes review: 29% missing data 2006 UNEP :AEO 2 for Africa: for some indicators up to 74%

missing data 2006 SIDS (AIMS region: 11 countries) IOC review: 48% missing

data 2008 Africa on Poverty Kasirim Nuwke: data scarce and

episodic: no analysis done 2009 World Bank data set on Poverty no data for the principal

countries (including UK, France and USA)

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Gaps in MDGs for reviewing Small and

island States

Climate change and sea level rise

Disasters Waste management Coastal and marine Tourism Biodiversity Demographic change

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Macro economic data monthly: latest May 2009

 MDGs data yearly:

latest 2007

Population data every ten years updated from births and deaths annually

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Ban Ki Moon to the rescue of MDGs October 2008 SG calls Stiglitz to report on crisis and

MDGs February 2009 UN reports 46m global increase in poverty March 2009 UN reports small states trapped by reduced

remittances May 2009 World Bank reports crisis hitting MDGs June 2009 World Bank reports hits on IMRs and women June 2009 UNESCO reports 20% cut in income of poorest

in Africa

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

MDGs Back on the Menu Big Time?

June 2009 USA Global Poverty Act Obama and Biden propose embracing the Millennium Development Goal to cut extreme poverty in half by the year 2015

June 2009 Impact of MDG paradigm on poverty reduction, DFID et al Brussels

June 2009 UN GA meeting on World Crisis and its Impact

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

UN June 2009 Meeting on World Financial and Economic Crisis and its Impact on Development

Strengthen UN capacity, effectiveness and efficiency

Enhance co-ordination between UN, IFIs and regional IGOs

Improve response of UN agencies to crisis and national vulnerabilities and ownership

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

The 46 UN SIDS have a total population of 55 million (Source UNICEF 20007);

Caribbean SIDS 35 million (64%); AIMS SIDS 11 million (20%) and Pacific SIDS 9 million (16%).

Four States together contain 70% of the total SIDS population

Cuba 21% Dominican Republic 16% Papua New Guinea 10% Singapore 8%

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Selected Small and Island States

StatePopulation millions State

Population millions State

Population millions

Under 1m Population1m but under 4m

Population Over 4m Population

Seychelles 0.1 Mauritius 1.2 Singapore 4.3

St. Lucia 0.2 Guinea-Bissau 1.6 PNG 6.3

Barbados 0.3 Gambia 1.6 Cuba 11.3

Malta 0.4 Botswana 1.9Fiji 0.8 Jamaica 2.7 Total 32.7

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Five of these thirteen states contain 81% of the total population: a common feature of global demography

But the MDG paradigm: Ignores population size Frustrates economic analysis Fails to illuminate resource needs for target pursuit Lacks an evidence base

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

88% of the 1.5m people who remain to be fed to meet the target levels come from just four of the 13 states

400,000 from Guinea-Bissau 346,000 from Papua New Guinea 333,000 from Botswana 256,000 from Gambia

JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

The Task ahead to meet the MDG 4 IMR target

Save 19,000 infant lives each year in the 13 selected States

But note: 93% are in just four countries: 6,386 in Papua New Guinea 4,680 in Guinea-Bissau 3,525 in Botswana 3,050 in Gambia

What technical and other resources are needed for this task? What will it cost? What are the expected results? JLR

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

The Task ahead to meet the Singapore MDG 4 IMR target

Save 17,382 infant lives each year in the 6 selected States

Iceland has achieved its target; can it defend it ?

The target to save infant lives for the other countries is: 13,2006 in the USA 1,510 in France 1,494 in the UK 1,056 in Canada 116 in New Zealand

What technical and other resources are needed for this task?

What will it cost?

What are the expected results?

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Feed-back time Victims or By-standers ? Key impacts on MDGs and SD? Key responses (emergency fiscal packages, new Budgets,

regional programmes, etc)?, Guidelines of best practice? Green accounts? South-south collaboration? Aid or trade?

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

What do the Fiscal polices and Budgets say on MDGs?

Mauritius: Saving jobs and Protecting people (Budget 2009)

Bahamas: International best practice on tax havens (Mid-year Budget 2009)

Barbados: Protect the vulnerable (Budget 2009)

Botswana: Fiscal policy to support economic activity and maintain macro-economic stability (Budget 2009)

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

From the great crisis to the great escape

Re-visit UN 2005 SIDS Mauritius Strategy Flag-ship models for key areas and gaps in MDGs Evidence based policy not policy based evidence Pursue social equity within and between states Seek social welfare outcomes Reform governance, competitiveness, probity

accountability Focus on local action, micro and Islamic finance

Re-establishing progress on the MDGs J L Roberts

Model for action Re-visit equity Policies for villains, victims and bystanders Resilience to threats: population increase, changing

markets for tourism and commodities More evidence based cost-effective action Better Professional and institutional development More relevant South-south links for technical transfer

Progress with MDGs Goal 7 Target10 Indicator 30: Access to Improved water source 2004 Figure 5

People in SIDS without safe water as percent of total 10m without safe water in 34 SIDS Sources: World Bank 2007, UNICEF 2007

Cape Verde

1%

Comoros

1%

Trinidad & Tobago

1%

Guyana

1%

Solomon Islands

1%

Jamaica

2%

Dominican Republic

4%

Fiji

4%Guinea Bissau

6%

Cuba

9%

Papua New Guinea

32%

Haiti

35%

Haiti Papua New Guinea Cuba Guinea Bissau Fiji Dominican Republic Jamaica

Solomon Islands Guyana Trinidad & Tobago Comoros Cape Verde Vanuatu Maldives

Suriname Sao Tome & Principe Kiribati Belize Samoa Seychelles Bahamas

Marshall Islands Antigua & Barbuda Micronesia Grenada St. Lucia Dominica St Kitts and Nevis

Barbados Cyprus Malta Mauritius Singapore Tonga

Progress with MDGs Goal 4 Target 5 Indicator 14 IMR 2004 and GDP per Capita PPP $ Figure 4

35 SIDS Sources: World Bank 2007, UNDP 2006

M auritiusSeychelles

Trinidad & TobagoGrenadaSt. V & G

FijiJamaica Tonga

BelizeDominican RepublicCape VerdeVanuatu

Solomon

IslesM aldives

GuyanaComoros

St LuciaDominica

HaitiSao Tome & Principe

Papua New Guinea

BarbadosBahrain

Bahamas

M alta Cyprus Singapore

Guinea Bissau

y = 46797x-0,8928

R2 = 0,8319

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

GDP Per Capita PPP $

IMR

200

4