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REACHING INTO THE WHITE POWDER A Policy Brief on 3D Printing and Pacific Security

Briar Thompson

Pacific Security Scholars Policy Brief Series

Federation of American Scientists

REACHING INTO THE WHITE POWDER A Policy Brief on 3D Printing and Pacific Security

Introduction

A number of recent events involving 3D printing, otherwise known as additive manufacturing, have drawn attention to the incredible potential of this technology. Defense Distributed’s printed gun parts, the Aston Martin stunt model cars 3D printed for Skyfall, and many medical uses are just some of the applications that have received extensive media coverage. The purpose of this short and nontechnical policy brief is to ‘reach into the white powder’ of 3D printing and bring out some key points relevant to security, and suggest possible government policy responses. Here ‘security’ is taken in a broad sense to include human security (UNDP, 1994). Where possible, the brief will be related to the Pacific region, though many issues will be applicable to governments worldwide. Although it is extremely difficult to predict future outcomes, it is important to consider the possibilities in order to be better prepared for possible impacts. Following a brief background on 3D printing, this paper will present security implications and policy considerations, give some examples of policies already in place, and then present three broad policy approaches that Pacific governments could adopt. Finally it will recommend that Pacific governments adopt, at a minimum, a monitoring and preparedness approach, if not also a collaborative approach of investing in research and development.!Brief Background

There are various different types of 3D printing technology, but in general, 3D printing involves printing layer upon layer of material to create an object, based on a digital blueprint. This technology has been used predominantly for creating models, rapid prototyping, and creating some parts for airplanes, automobiles, medical use and some other industries.The technology is capable of printing:

▪ Plastics, metals (including titanium — a metal with a very high melting point), and mixed materials

▪ Biomaterial, including living human tissue — examples include skin, simple organs, bone, and some complex organs (Anthony Atala and his team at Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine have produced a kidney, though more research is needed before it is applied in clinical use (Atala, 2011))

▪ Food – successful examples include chocolate and cupcakes

3D Printing is already used by many companies, including Apple, BMW, Boeing, Fisher-Price, Ford, General Electric, Harley Davidson, Reebok and more (McNulty, Arnas, & Campbell, 2012) The technology is becoming more widely available, both in industry and for personal use with desktop 3D printers, and the costs are coming down. !3D printing offers many advantages. It is an additive form of manufacturing, building up an object from scratch, as opposed to subtractive manufacturing, removing material to leave behind a finished product (often requiring moulds, many tools, and assembly with other parts). Therefore, 3D printing is appealing as it takes fewer parts to make one product, is more efficient, wastes less materials, reduces manufacturing time, and may also save energy. Given that a computer aided design (CAD) file is easy to edit, it is faster and cheaper to make changes to a product when using additive manufacturing than when using subtractive manufacturing. CAD files can be either a design or a 3D scan, and can even include medical data (National Intelligence Council, 2012). Software is available at many price points, and there are a number of free tools for designing 3D objects including Google Sketchup. Furthermore, 3D printing allows for the creation of more complex objects without an increase in cost (McNulty, Arnas, & Campbell, 2012). This makes 3D printing very good for customization, rapid prototyping, short production runs (e.g., on demand replacement parts for repairs), and reverse engineering or making parts that are no longer available.!Material quality and cost are two key limiting factors on the spread of this technology (National Intelligence Council, 2012). Because of these limiting factors, it is unclear how soon this technology could be used for mass production of objects.Media coverage and discussions about 3D printing reveal a divide between technology evangelists who see the enormous potential in this technology and alarmists who are concerned about possible negative uses or impacts. Uncertainty around what might be possible through 3D printing appears to be fueling some of the alarmism.!Potential security implications and related policy considerations

Although 3D printing is only one potential driver of changes, the number of changes it could spark is substantial. This table presents some key security-relevant impacts 3D printing could have.

! Change due to 3D printing

Effect Security implication Policy considerations

Supply chains are shortened, as objects can be printed at the point of need with little or no assembly.!!Desktop printers and online 3D print shops allow for customization and “democratized[d] manufacturing” (National Intelligence Council, 2012, p. 90), with consumers able to print objects when and where needed.!

A ‘manufacturing revolution’ in the long term, with reduced need for assembly and other traditional aspects of manufacturing, transport, warehousing, and retail. !!Customized goods may displace or reduce the need for some mass-produced goods.!!Some mass production “may be replaced by production by the masses” (Hornick, 2013).!

This has the potential to disrupt many sectors including manufacturing, shipping, warehousing, and retailing, and in turn impact on trade and political relations internationally. These impacts will be explored individually below.!

See below.

Less warehousing, less stocking products for retail

A digital library of files for printing could replace keeping large inventories, allowing what NZ Minister for Customs Maurice Williamson describes as a “print what you need, when you need it, where you need it” approach (Williamson, 2013).

McNulty et al.2012) suggests this would be particularly useful for the military, given the volume of replacement parts necessary for different types of equipment, some of which are no longer produced. For businesses, this could change the threat of theft— files would need protection rather than physical items.

Protection of files will become increasingly important, as will keeping the right kind of data for anything “we may need to replace in small quantities later” (McNulty, Arnas, & Campbell, 2012, p. 8).!

!

Change due to 3D printing

Effect Security implication Policy considerations

Less need for shipping, with products printed on site of need

Over time, volumes shipped internationally may drop. However, this won’t apply to all goods, and it may still work out better for some countries to focus on producing the goods where they have comparative advantage.

A number of territorial disputes (e.g., in the South China Sea) are strongly linked to shipping routes, and changes in shipping frequency could play into these disputes.

Research into the interplay between shipping and territorial disputes will be increasingly salient. The effects of changes in shipping should be monitored closely.

Reduced reliance on imports of some goods because printers allow low-cost fast printing at point of need.!!Economies of scale undermined because it is “as cheap to produce one item as many” (McNulty, Arnas, & Campbell, 2012, p. 5).

Could result in less reliance on low-cost and low-wage countries for manufacturing (McNulty, Arnas, & Campbell, 2012; National Intelligence Council, 2012; The Economist, 2012).!A number of countries may look into ‘reshoring’ manufacturing of some products with 3D printing. !!

This could have flow on effects for international relations, particularly in changing relationships with low-cost low-wage countries currently manufacturing many goods for export.!

Careful thought needs to be put into foreign policy with low-cost low-wage countries going forward, considering possible impacts of changes in trade.!The political appeal to reshore manufacturing and create jobs domestically will need to be matched by investment in research and development (R&D) of 3D technologies to make this possible.

!

Change due to 3D printing

Effect Security implication Policy considerations

3D printing could replace the need for some manufacturing workers, but also demand some workers skilled in using this technology

This could address but also change labour constraints — the mix of skilled and non-skilled workers required for manufacturing could change over time, resulting in layoffs of manufacturing workers, and openings for specialists in 3D printing. !

Impacts on employment rates and inequalities which hugely impact human security and domestic stability.

A focus on training up skilled workers for this shift is important, from exposure to the technology in education through to investing in development of specialists. !Governments need to be well-prepared for any mass layoffs of unskilled manufacturing laborers, and work closely with industry and labour unions to minimize negative impacts.

Changes customs and border protection — increases the challenge of protecting a digital border.!

As the range of objects that can be printed increases (e.g., consider the possibility in future to print drugs or cash in addition to weapons), smuggling and counterfeiting becomes a considerable concern, especially as it is less detectable carried out over a digital rather than physical border.!Because these activities are carried out largely beyond the reach of control, they are extremely difficult to regulate. One crucial impact of this is missed tax capture. As with the digitalization of music and film, digitalization of other goods will remove the government’s ability to collect tax that would normally be applied. Without the ability to protect a revenue border, governments could face further declines in tax revenues.

Customs and border security forces will face new challenges. It will be almost impossible to protect a digital border. As NZ Minister for Customs Maurice Williamson lamented, “Twenty-three million bits pass by your eyes in zeros and ones — it could have been anything, we just don’t have the ability” (Williamson, 2013).!Government tax revenue base may drop while costs do not, leaving a need for new ways to collect tax to make up the shortfall. Changes to tax systems could impact heavily upon individual citizens.

Governments will need to be aware of and prepare for changes in tax revenues as goods are transferred digitally rather than physically (both across borders and within them).!Governments should realize they will always be in ‘catch-up mode’ and will need to make tough choices about which taxes are now too difficult to capture, and which taxes they should fight to maintain.

!

Change due to 3D printing

Effect Security implication Policy considerations

It is easy to counterfeit goods and print them outside the range of enforcement or detection

Copyrights, patents, and intellectual property (IP) can easily be violated.!!John Hornick, an IP litigator with Finegan in Washington DC, expects that IP law will become narrower not broader, as it will be harder to enforce and find an infringement, so we shouldn’t expect major IP regimes in future (Hornick, 2013).!For a discussion of the many legal issues around 3D printing, see (Weinberg, 2010).!

Legal enforcement of IP becomes increasingly difficult. IP infringement is not yet a big problem, though large firms threatened by 3D printing may apply pressure to governments in future to do something about it.

Though businesses may pressure the government to do something about protecting IP, so far there are very few effective methods to do this. Furthermore, there is a need to balance the present demands for IP protection with possible negative future implications of regulation on the development of the industry as a whole.

Can be used for criminal purposes, just like other technologies

New technologies may be used to commit crimes. Some examples so far include the scanning, sharing and printing of police handcuff keys, and the printing of a device to install on an ATM and steal bank users’ information.

Policing and law enforcement face new challenges.

Police and other law enforcement agencies need to keep abreast of developments in the technology, and of stories emerging worldwide of criminal applications.

!

Change due to 3D printing

Effect Security implication Policy considerations

Labeling and liability changes

Because printed goods are the result of many processes and products — a CAD file, the 3D printer, the materials provided, etc., — it will be increasingly difficult to determine liability for faulty products. The lack of labeling on printed products further compounds this problem. John Hornick warns this may be a bigger issue than IP concerns (Hornick, 2013). For example, if you buy a CAD file for a helmet, print it at home, and are later injured because it is faulty, you could sue the seller of the file, the 3D printer company, and the materials company, and it is not currently clear who would be liable.

Liability and litigation will affect the legal and insurance sectors, and overlap with government rules around labeling and product safety.!!It will be difficult to determine if a product is authentic, home-made, or made by an unauthorized fabricator.

Governments will need to consider how 3D printing may subvert policies on food and product safety and labeling.!Governments should keep track of developments in DNA marking. The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), part of the US Department of Defense, now requires defense contractors to mark items they produce with a form of botanically generated DNA (Applied DNA Sciences Inc, 2014). This could be considered by governments as a possible solution for determining the origin of 3D printed items.

!

Change due to 3D printing

Effect Security implication Policy considerations

Ability to print biomaterial including living human tissue

3D Printing of biomaterial has many possible applications, from domestic healthcare provision to treating injuries and wounds in battle. In theory a bioprinting machine could be used in remote areas reducing the need for a fully equipped clinic. !!Organ transplant patients will have a dramatically reduced risk of failure due to rejection, because the organ carries their own DNA. !

Changes battlefield injury treatment (McNulty, Arnas, & Campbell, 2012). However, this could mean soldiers are treated like machines that are ‘fixed’ quickly and returned to battle, with less time to recover mentally.McNulty et al. (2012) also point out a possible risk of moral hazard for the military when this technology becomes widely available.!!Could also revolutionize organ transplants and address long waiting lists, particularly for kidneys.!!In future this capability may be used for human enhancement, which will have many moral and security implications.!

The benefits of this technology will have to be balanced by their cost. Governments will need to determine whether they are willing to pay for such technologies to be available to their military forces, general public, etc.!!Governments will also need to continue regulating research requirements necessary before clinical use of 3D printed complex organs.!

It is possible to print high quality metals capable of withstanding extremely high temperatures

This may help make commercial nuclear fusion possible (Morgan, 2013).

Commercial nuclear fusion could change electricity generation in many countries, and once again put a number of Pacific countries under pressure to change their stance on the use of nuclear technologies.!

Pacific governments need to be prepared for international pressure that may come from further developments in nuclear technologies.

Examples of existing policies

▪ 3D Printers have been introduced to schools in some countries including the U.S. (National Intelligence Council, 2012), the UK (Department for Education, 2013; Paton, 2013), New Zealand (Park, 2012; Radio NZ, 2011) and Australia (Burrows, 2013).

▪ A U.S. report (McNulty, Arnas, & Campbell, 2012) recommended cooperation between the law enforcement, legal and diplomatic communities in order to protect entrepreneurs’ intellectual property, especially to protect U.S. inventions internationally.

▪ The U.S. has created a National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute, now called ‘America Makes’, to focus on increasing and accelerating U.S. domestic additive manufacturing, supporting R&D in a number of ways (Advanced Manufacturing Portal, 2013). Part of this investment includes focusing on the potential for integrating 3D printing into ongoing defense projects.

▪ A number of Pacific Rim countries (including Japan, China and Singapore) are also investing in 3D printing research and development programs, often in partnership with educational or research institutions.

▪ The New Zealand Defense Force is investigating the possible future outcomes of 3D printing (Radio NZ, 2013). !

Possible policy options

This section presents three broad policy approaches as alternatives to inaction. The three approaches are monitoring and preparation, collaboration, or control. Monitoring and preparation This approach recognizes the need to take a big picture/long range view and carry out research — even if only secondary research — to assess the impacts of 3D printing and prepare as much as possible for those impacts. Specific steps could include:

▪ Assigning a tech-savvy person to research ongoing 3D printing developments and become the government’s resident expert who can advise on policy. That person could attend industry conferences and trade shows, join discussion groups on the internet, and keep track of legal developments that may set precedents or highlight new concerns. They should also follow industry reviews and reports that are available, including a range of newsletters, 3D printing news websites, and reports such as the Wohlers Associates State of the industry report (Wohlers Associates, 2013). !!!

!▪ Establishing an interdepartmental or even part-government part-industry task-force to

meet regularly and discuss the latest developments in 3D printing and their impacts on security.

▪ Including 3D printing in relevant government departments’ media monitoring, or at least regularly checking industry websites and reports, Wired and The Economist to keep abreast of major developments.

▪ Scheduling regular interdepartmental future mapping and preparedness exercises to draw out priorities for forward-looking policy.

▪ Improving government ability to respond flexibly and quickly to changes — this may be easier with an interdepartmental task-force with broad networks to draw on across the government. !

The major benefit of this approach is that it will allow governments in the Pacific to keep up to date, if not keep pace with developments. If they are also flexible and able to respond quickly to major changes, Pacific countries could gain from the benefits of 3D printing and minimize downsides. It is important to note that a restricted form of this approach may be the only option available to some Pacific countries given their limited resources. However, information sharing may be possible between some countries with close relationships, perhaps assigning a delegate to be included in a task-force/working group run by another country e.g. some Pacific Island countries with close relationships with New Zealand could request to have a delegate on a New Zealand task-force or working group. !Collaboration Building on monitoring and preparedness, taking a collaborative approach focuses on increasing cooperation across sectors including the government, legal services, diplomatic service, border control, law enforcement, business, research and development, academia , etc. Specific steps could include:

▪ Ensuring investment in training up people with skills in computer aided design and additive manufacturing techniques. Placing 3D printers in schools, as some countries have already done, is a great start along that path.

▪ Funding R&D projects in universities and businesses where there is possible commercial application or some other benefit to the country.

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!▪ Assigning a tech-savvy person to research ongoing 3D printing

developments and become the government’s resident expert who can advise on policy. That person could attend industry conferences and trade shows, join discussion groups on the internet, and keep track of legal developments that may set precedents or highlight new concerns. They should also follow industry reviews and reports that are available, including a range of newsletters, 3D printing news websites, and reports such as the Wohlers Associates State of the industry report (Wohlers Associates, 2013).

▪ Establishing an interdepartmental or even part-government part-industry task-force to meet regularly and discuss the latest developments in 3D printing and their impacts on security.

▪ Including 3D printing in relevant government departments’ media monitoring, or at least regularly checking industry websites and reports, Wired and The Economist to keep abreast of major developments.

▪ Scheduling regular interdepartmental future mapping and preparedness exercises to draw out priorities for forward-looking policy.

▪ Improving government ability to respond flexibly and quickly to changes — this may be easier with an interdepartmental task-force with broad networks to draw on across the government.!

!▪ Establishing partnerships between government departments and academic institutions,

perhaps in the form of new centers or institutes, to research specific applications in which the government sees a need or potential gain.

▪ Encouraging information sharing between academia, business and government departments on 3D printing developments.

▪ Facilitating regional cooperation and collaboration to share information and resources relating to 3D printing developments.

Pacific governments have a unique opportunity to draw benefits from developments in 3D printing if they act fast. As McNulty et al. (2012) points task-force out, “By funding this technology before it fully enters the consumer market and collaborating with those developing the systems... government agencies will have an advantage in its future gains” (p. 7). Control A control approach would focus heavily on regulation. This could include:

▪ Regulating IP owners to control CAD files in order to control printing e.g. somehow programming files to only print at certain specifications, or on a specific printer with certain materials. However, CAD files are easily changed. The field of ‘digital rights management’ has been largely unsuccessful as of yet. Furthermore, a 3D scanner reduces the need for a CAD file so it would still be easy to bypass such regulation.

▪ Focusing on building up IP regulation, though this would likely stifle developments in the industry without preventing the undesirable outcomes, ultimately doing more harm than good.

▪ Controlling gunpowder, aiming to make it traceable, to address the weapons concern. Aiming for government control would be detrimental to the development of 3D technology and the possible benefits it can bring, even if such an approach may satisfy pressures from some groups of businesses or citizens demanding action in the face of uncertainty. !

Recommendations

It is imperative that 3D printing is recognized as a quickly developing technology with enormous possibilities, both for security benefits and for substantial changes that will present security challenges to unprepared governments. Out of the three broad approaches outlined above, governments of the Pacific should, to some extent, adopt the first approach of monitoring developments and preparing for changes. This will help governments keep up to date with 3D printing developments impacting on security and avoid being left behind. Governments who are able to should also pursue the second approach of collaboration, investing in research and development projects and training skilled workers. Regional cooperation between Pacific Island governments would compliment cross-sector collaboration within countries, better preparing governments to react to changes and security challenges that are “coming whether you like it or not and at a speed you don’t see coming” (Williamson, 2013).

Bibliography !3D Printing [private LinkedIn group]. (2013). Retrieved October 2013, from LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?home=&gid=792077&trk=groups_guest_about-h-logo !Advanced Manufacturing Portal. (2013). America Makes: National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (NAMII). Retrieved November 15, 2013, from Advanced Manufacturing Portal: http://www.manufacturing.gov/nnmi_pilot_institute.html !Applied DNA Sciences Inc. (2014). Electronics. Retrieved January 17, 2014, from Applied DNA Sciences: http://www.adnas.com/applications/electronics !Atala, A. (2011, March). Anthony Atala: Printing a human kidney [video file]. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from TED: http://www.ted.com/talks/anthony_atala_printing_a_human_kidney.html !Brooke, R. (2013, March 11). 3D printing in the emerging markets: China. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from TCT Mag: http://www.tctmagazine.com/additive-manufacturing/3d-printing-in-the-emerging-markets%3A-china/ !Burrows, I. (2013, November 8). 3D printing aims to revolutionize Australian schools, manufacturing. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from Australia Network News: 3D printing aims to revolutionize Australian schools, manufacturing Department for Education. (2013, October). 3D printers in school: Uses in the curriculum. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/251439/3D_printers_in_schools.pdf !Hornick, J. (2013, October 23). Interview about 3D printing. (B. Thompson, Interviewer) !Markillie, P. (2012, April 21). A third industrial revolution. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/21552901

Bibliography !McNulty, C. M., Arnas, N., & Campbell, T. A. (2012). Toward the printed world: Additive manufacturing and implications for national security. Defense Horizons (73), 1-16. !Morgan, J. (2013, October 15). Amaze project aims to take 3D printing 'into metal age'. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from BBC News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24528306 !National Intelligence Council. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Council. !Park, R. (2012, December 21). New Zealand Incorporates 3D Printing into Curriculum. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from 3D Printing Industry: http://3dprintingindustry.com/2012/12/21/new-zealand-incorporates-3d-printing-into-curriculum/ !Paton, G. (2013, October 18). 3D printers to be introduced into the classroom. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10389489/3D-printers-to-be-introduced-into-the-classroom.html !Radio NZ. (2013, May 19). Defense to investigate 3D printing of guns. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from Radio NZ: http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/135502/defence-to-investigate-3d-printing-of-guns !Radio NZ. (2011, March 3). Nine to Noon Thursday 3 March 2011, with Kathryn Ryan. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from Radio NZ: http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2468861/new-technology-nat-torkington The Economist. (2012, April 21). Special report: A third industrial revolution. The Economist . UNDP. (1994). Human Development Report 1994. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bibliography !Weinberg, M. (2010, November). It will be awesome if they don't screw it up: 3D printing, intellectual property, and the fight over the next great disruptive technology. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from Public Knowledge: http://www.publicknowledge.org/files/docs/3DPrintingPaperPublicKnowledge.pdf !Williamson, M. (2013, October 30). Interview about 3D printing. (B. Thompson, Interviewer) Wohlers Associates. (2013). Wohlers Report 2013. Retrieved November 15, 2013, from Wohlers Associates: http://wohlersassociates.com/2013report.htm !This policy brief was also informed by informal discussions with industry professionals and academics who did not wish to be referenced.

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!About the Author!!Briar Thompson is a Rhodes Scholar from New Zealand pursuing graduate study at Somerville College, University of Oxford. She has completed an MSc in Refugee and Forced Migration Studies, in which her thesis focused on how the protection needs of those vulnerable to displacement linked to environmental stress might be provided, with particular reference to Pacific small island states. Starting this fall, Briar will be reading for the Master of Public Policy at Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, where she intends to continue relating her studies to the Pacific region.!!

About the 2013/14 Pacific Security Scholars Program: The 2013/14 Pacific Security Scholars Program is an extension of the ESTPC Security Scholars program. Designed specifically for scholars from the Pacific Islands region, this program is being run in partnership with the Pacific Islands Society and the Center for Australian, New Zealand, and Pacific Studies. Keiko Ono, Director of Development at PacSoc,can be reached at the following address for any further enquiries into the program: staff@pacificislandssociety.org.

About the Pacific Islands Society Inc (PacSoc). The Pacific Islands Society is an independent, non-partisan, non-governmental organization dedicated to promoting stronger people-people relations between the Pacific Island Countries and beyond. www.pacificislandssociety.com !About the Emerging Science and Technology Policy Centre The Emerging Science and Technology Policy Centre was established to promote international peace by strengthening the impact and credibility of scientists and technologists in national security policy debates involving emerging science and technologies. www.estpc.org !About the Pacific Islands Society at SOAS The Pacific Islands Society at SOAS is a registered society of the SOAS Student Union that aims to increase student and faculty awareness of the importance of Pacific affairs within the SOAS community and the broader UK higher-level education system.!About the Center for Australian, New Zealand, and Pacific Studies: The Center for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies is part of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. The Center was established in August 1995 with funding from the Governments of Australia and New Zealand and offers a wide program of courses, conferences and meetings taught by outstanding academics each semester. http://canzps.georgetown.edu !About the Federation of American Scientists The Federation of American Scientists, an independent, nonpartisan think tank dedicated to providing rigorous, objective, evidence-based analysis and practical policy recommendations on national and international security issues connected to applied science and technology. www.fas.org

This publication may be reproduced in its entirety for educational and non-commercial use, and excerpts may be reproduced provided the title and publisher are credited.All rights reserved. !Proposed citation: Briar Thompson, Pacific Security Scholars (2014) ‘Reaching into the White Powder: A Policy Brief on 3D printing and Pacific Security’ Pacific Islands Society Inc.

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