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Real Estate & Construction Industry
27 February 2012
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
Presentation Plan
Global Commercial Real Estate Investments
Global Residential Market Trends
Global Office Market Trends
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sources 1 – Link
Commercial real estate projects continues to attract capital from investors with investments seen in cross-border as well. The 2012
investment levels are projected to match 2011 levels although euro-zone crisis is expected to have a negative impact on global
investments.
• The Americas region investments volumes were up about 60% in 2011 over 2010.
• EMEA region was up 20% in 2011 over 2010.
• The Asia-Pacific region investment levels remained same in 2010 and 2011
Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment, 2005 – 2012(E)
Global commercial direct real estate investment totalled USD 411 billion in 2011 an increase of 28% over 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
2005 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sources 1 – Link
Investments in Asian market remain stable while European region exceeds expectations. US market sees maximum investment
32,3
15
7,2 7,5 7 4,3 3,9
1,9 2,4
34,1
12,6 9,3 8,2
5 4 3,9 2,5 1,8
US UK France Germany China Australia Japan Russia Canada
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
37,2
43
21,7
37,4
46,4
22,4
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
32
12,7
5,5
8,9
3 2,8 4,8
2 3,3
34,1
12,6
9,3 8,2
5 4 3,9 2,5 1,8
US UK France Germany China Australia Japan Russia Canada
Q3 2010
Q4 2011
97,4
137,7
85,4
154,8 164,8
90,9
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
FY 2010
FY 2011
All figures in USD billion
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
Residential Market Trends
The US rental apartment market continues to be strong and remains in favour with investors; Europe and Asian market to witness slow residential growth
Sources 1 – Link
Americas
• The US apartment vacancy rate declined by 100 basis points through the first three quarters of 2011.
• The vacancies are projected to fall further to under 5% in 2012 as the employment growth improves.
• Rents in 2012 are expected to have steady growth with modest acceleration in H1 2012.
Europe
• In most of the European countries price fall in residential property will be of about 2-6% per year. However home prices in Germany
and France will rise strongly to about 7% and 8% respectively.
• Prices in Spain are expected to fall down 8% per year while in Ireland the decline will be even more at 14% per year.
Asia
• Residential real estate sale slowed further across Asia in 2011, with fewer new projects.
• Shanghai and Singapore both experienced negative growth, although Manila and Jakarta remained unaffected.
• Growth of 3.8% and 2.8% seen in Jakarta and Beijing respectively due to ongoing corporate expansion.
• In the Middle-Eastern region, the residential market in Dubai is expected to see mixed performance in 2012.
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
Global Office Net Absorption 2011
Global office leasing volume remains resilient; Demand continues to be strong in China, India, Brazil, the CEE* region, Germany, the Nordics, Canada and Australia
Sources 1 – Link * Central & Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific:
• For the entire year 2011, net absorption in Asia-
Pacific increased by 20% as compared to 2010.
However in Q4 2011 the leasing volume was down
due to decreased business activity.
• For 2012, it is expected that the leasing demand
will weaken due to slower corporate hiring.
Europe:
• In 2011, net absorption in Europe increased by 5%
as compared to 2010.
• In 2012, it is expected that the overall leasing
volumes in Europe will be similar to 2011 levels.
The US:
• The office sector in the US posted 7 consecutive
gains with the last 2 quarters showing maximum
rate of increase.
• In Q4 2011, a total of 10.6 million square feet of
space was absorbed.
• The occupancy gains have been mainly from the
technology and energy sector.
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
Global office vacancy rates continue to decline across all the three regions, with further falls expected in 2012
Sources 1 – Link
Office Vacancy Rates - Major Markets Q4 2011
Asia Pacific:
• Across the Asia-Pacific mixed performance was
seen in vacancy levels.
• The occupancy rates across North Asia (Japan and
South Korea) improved due to affordable office
rents.
• Vacancy rates increased marginally in Hong Kong
and Singapore.
Europe:
• Due to increase in net absorption rate, the
European office vacancy rate declined to 9.9%.
• It is projected that European vacancy rate will fall
further in 2012.
• Moreover, uncertain business conditions will result
in postponements in expansion.
Americas:
• The total vacancy rate across the US dipped to
16.7%, lowest since Q2 2009.
• In Brazil, the overall demand for office space
remains strong.
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
During Q4 2011, office rental growth remained slow in some of the major regions
Sources 1 – Link
Office Rental Trends
Asia Pacific:
• In most of the regions across Asia Pacific the office
rental growth slowed in 2011.
• In Hong Kong, the rates declined for the second
consecutive quarter. Singapore also saw decline in
rate for first time since Q1 2010.
Europe:
• In Europe the office rents mostly remained
unchanged in Q4 2011.
• However it is expected that rental will increase in
2012 due to shortage of office space in key
regions.
The US:
• Office rents in the US is expected to increase in
2012 with the recovery in economy.
• Technology, energy and healthcare industry is
expected to drive the majority of growth.
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
Global Office Market Conditions Matrix
According to JLL*, from 2012 to 2014 global office real estate industry will shift in favour of landlords from tenants
Sources 1 – Link
City 2012 2013 2014
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
Toronto
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
City 2012 2013 2014
Brussels
Frankfurt
London
Madrid
Paris
Dubai
City 2012 2013 2014
Beijing
Hong Kong
Mumbai
Singapore
Sydney
Tokyo
Tenant Favourable Neutral Market Landlord Favourable
Americas EMEA APAC
* JLL – Jones Lang LaSALLE
© 2012 Grant Thornton International Ltd. All rights reserved.
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