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Real Sector Statistics Division June 2013 The real sales index rebounded in June 2013 on the back of stronger public consumption in the run-up to the holy fasting month of Ramadhan, the start of school holidays as well as mid- year discount programs. The greatest contributors to the sales increase were food, beverages and tobacco, followed by clothing and automotive fuels. Real sales from April to June 2013 (Quarter II-2013) evidenced a higher level of public consumption compared to the previous quarter. Sales is expected to rebound in July 2013. Growing sales are affecting nearly all commodity groups, in particular the clothing subgroup. Fuel price hikes in June 2013 triggered high retailer expectations of mounting price pressures in the upcoming three months. Meanwhile, price pressures for the upcoming six months (December 2013) also escalated in line with public demand to celebrate Christmas and the New Year. The return to normal levels of public consumption in the wake of the fasting month and Eid ul-Fitr has led to weaker retail sales forecasts for the next three months. Conversely, retail sales for the upcoming six months are expected to surge in the run-up to Christmas and the New Year. Real Sales Methodology Retail sales survey (RSS) is conducted to obtain prompt information about moving trend of GDP from private consumption side. RSS is a monthly survey that applied since September 1999. As of January 2012, survey was carried out by purposive sampling which cover around 600 retailers as respondents in 10 cities i.e.: Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan,Purwokerto, Makassar, Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity weight and city weight, while commodity weight refer to input-output table, and city weight is according to the share of household consumption in Regional Gross Domestic Product to household consumption in Gross Domestic Product. Respondents are panel and classified into 7group based on The Indonesian Classification by Sectors (KBLI) 2009. The result is presented in real index with 2010=100 (2000=100 in previous). Price expectation is calculated by balance score method (net balance + 100) weighted by city as it weight according to cost living survey of 2007 published by Statistics Bureau (BPS).
