Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space Physics
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Why forecast indices?
• Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon
• Used to drive models
• Large data sets available for– Analysis– Model evaluation– Model development
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Outline
• Some applications using geomagnetic indices• Real-time forecasts• The Lund Dst model
– Model evaluation
– Short term dynamics
– Long term dynamics
– Real-time operation
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Magnetospheric Specification Model
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html
- Kp
Input:
50 keV el.
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment
- Solar wind- Dst
Inputs:
http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html
10 keV to 5 MeV electrons10 keV to 1 MeV protons
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
SWRI
http://climatology.space.swri.edu/
Input: - Dst
Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeV
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Stormshttp://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Kp Scale
5 G1
6 G2
7 G3
8 – 9- G4
9 G5
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Input: - Kp
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Kp for GIC forecasts
Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Real-time forecastsIndex URL
AE http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/ae.htmlhttp://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/vassi/rt/main.html
Dst http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/dst.htmlhttp://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/klimas/htmls/dst.htmlhttp://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/http://www2.crl.go.jp/uk/uk223/service/http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.htmlhttp://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index/http://www.iki.rssi.ru/apetruko/forecast/forecast.html
Kp http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/index.htmlhttp://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.html
Ap http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.htmlhttp://www.sepc.ac.cn/english/
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
Models Indices
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind
Solar Wind Monitor
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
Kp at RWC-Sweden
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
Dst at RWC-Sweden
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Matlab
Java
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Overall performance of different Dst models
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst
t
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Power spectrum
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Wavelet of Dst
27 d
0.5 y1 y
1.3 y
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Wavelet of predicted Dst
27 d
0.5 y1 y
1.3 y
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Effect of data gaps
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Future
• List of updated forecast models– ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!)– Plots, Data, Models– Evaluation
• Evaluation– RMS error and correlation (overall performance)– Skill scores (comparative overall performance)– Onset times– Long term dynamics– Real time performance
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Indices
Power grid
Spacecraft