8/8/2019 Realignment: Managing a Stable Transition to Afghan Responsibility

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Realignment: Managing a StableTransition to Afghan ResponsibilityRecommendations for the United States and Its Allies

Caroline Wadhams, Colin Cookman, Brian Katulis, and Lawrence Korb November 2010

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Introduction and summary

Curren U.S. eors in Aghanisan are undamenally ou o balance, and hey are

no advancing U.S. ineress and sabiliy in Aghanisan, Pakisan, and he region.

Miliary operaions drive our sraegy while he poliical and diplomaic rame-

 work essenial or long-erm sabiliy in Aghanisan remains undeveloped.

Furher, his overinvesmen o resources and atenion in Aghanisan is ou o 

alignmen wih core U.S. securiy ineress in he region. Tose ineress cener on

reducing he risk o erroris atacks by Al Qaeda and is aliaed neworks againshe Unied Saes and is allies. Tey also include increasing he poliical sabiliy 

o he Pakisani sae, a counry o 170 million people wih nuclear weapons.

Prevening sae collapse in Aghanisan and managing a sable and enduring ran-

siion o responsibiliy o Aghan leaders would enable he Unied Saes o bes

mee hese core securiy objecives in he region and over he long erm suppor a

peaceul, economically inegraed region. A smaller U.S. and NAO-ISAF miliary 

ooprin wih a more robus poliical and diplomaic eor has a greaer chance o 

reaching his desirable end sae o sabiliy han a ull-blown counerinsurgency 

eor o exend he governmen o Kabul hroughou he counry and deea he

aliban insurgency.

Te Obama adminisraion should use is upcoming year-end policy review o

reocus on he poliical and diplomaic componens o is sraegy while i ransi-

ions ou o Aghanisan. Tis will enail building an inclusive setlemen o he

counry’s conic, developing an Aghan sae ha is increasingly less dependen

on exernal suppor, and aciliaing an inernaional diplomaic agreemen among

 Aghanisan’s neighbors and regional parners.

Te adminisraion mus commi o ranserring responsibiliy o Aghan leaders

in he near uure, as agreed o by he Aghan governmen, he Unied Saes, and

he NAO-led Inernaional Securiy Assisance Force, or ISAF. We should reduce

our miliary ooprin a a seady pace beginning now wih ull ranser o Aghan

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conrol by 2014 a he laes. A reducion in roop levels and assisance should

occur more rapidly, however, i Aghanisan’s governmen does no begin a serious

process o poliical reorm and dialogue wih is armed and unarmed opponens.

o be sure, an acceleraed wihdrawal would have coss—many o which he

 Aghan people would have o bear. I is no an ideal approach by ar. Bu heUnied Saes can proec is core securiy ineress wih a reduced miliary 

presence in Aghanisan. And wihou shis in he curren poliical srucure in

 Aghanisan i will be simply uile or he Unied Saes and is NAO allies o

 wage coninued war on behal o a governmen ha canno consolidae domesic

poliical suppor wihou indefnie massive inernaional assisance.

 Transitioning to a viable end state in Afghanistan

Te Unied Saes, wih is NAO-ISAF parners, mus prioriize measures hacan induce poliical and economic reorms on he par o he Aghan governmen

in order o manage a measured drawdown in Aghanisan over he nex hree

 years. Beyond 2014, he Unied Saes may oer Aghanisan fnancial suppor

and mainain a small miliary orce o underake argeed atacks agains erroris

groups, conduc inelligence gahering, and provide raining o Aghan Naional

Securiy Forces.

Te ask or he Obama adminisraion hrough he remainder o is frs erm

in oce is redirecing is diplomaic, fnancial, and miliary resources oward a

susainable setlemen in Aghanisan in which he Unied Saes can ransiion

responsibiliy o Aghan leaders wihou sparking an expanded round o conic.

Bu a sel-susaining sae in Aghanisan capable o surviving a drawdown in large-

scale inernaional assisance requires a poliical sysem ha oers he diverse

acions in Aghanisan’s sociey—including hose backing he curren govern-

men, hose aking par in armed insurgency, and hose siting on he ence—an

opporuniy o paricipae in heir counry’s uure.

Te Unied Saes and is parners in NAO, Kabul, and he region should work 

oward he ollowing goals in order o achieve a sable, increasingly sel-relian Aghan sae:

• An Aghan sae ha delegaes more power, resources, appoinmens, and jusice

o he local level and o oher ceners o power such as he parliamen and judiciary 

in order o creae a more balanced power dynamic han wha currenly exiss

 The task or

the Obama

administration

through the

remainder o its

rst term in ofc

is redirecting

its diplomatic,

nancial,

and military

resources towar

a sustainable

settlement in

Aghanistan.

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• A more inclusive process or addressing he grievances o boh armed govern-

men opponens who are willing o ener ino a poliical dialogue and unarmed

 Aghan ciizens whose lives have also been adversely aeced by governmen

impuniy and conic

•

 Aghan Naional Securiy Forces ha can provide securiy agains inernal andexernal hreas and ha operae under he Aghan cenral governmen’s conrol

• A regional sraegic ramework in which neighboring counries agree o recog-

nize he sovereigny o he Aghan governmen while providing consrucive

suppor or is reinegraion ino he region

• No sae haven or erroris groups in Aghanisan and Pakisan o atack eiher

counry, he Unied Saes, or oher counries in he region or around he world

U.S. governmen agencies and he W hie House should immediaely underakehe ollowing acions o accomplish hese goals:

• Creae a poliical sraegy wih deadlines and benchmarks o creae greaer

checks and balances, broaden he base o suppor or Aghanisan’s governmen,

and develop Aghan governmen revenue sources while condiioning urher

assisance on progress in meeing hose goals.

• Encourage inclusive reconciliaion among fghing paries and unarmed acors

in Aghanisan and insis on baseline requiremens o renunciaion o violence,

proecing basic human righs, and prevening erroris sae havens.

• Underake an aggressive inernaional diplomaic iniiaive ha brings in all

o Aghanisan’s neighbors ino a dialogue, including Pakisan, India, Iran, and

oher regional players.

• Reduce he U.S. miliary ooprin, realigning U.S. and NAO miliary sraegy 

 wih poliical end goals and core securiy ineress.

In he pages ha ollow his repor will analyze he principal obsacles ha sandin he way o an eecive Aghan governmen ha can survive a signifcan draw-

down o U.S. and NAO orces. I will hen ouline he acions ha he Unied

Saes and is allies in NAO and Kabul should ake o overcome hese obsacles

hrough a reocus on poliical reorm, a poliical setlemen among Aghans, and a

diplomaic agreemen wih inernaional players.

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Bu we mus acknowledge a he ouse ha a durable resoluion o Aghanisan’s

conic is an exremely dauning challenge given he misrus on all sides and he

degree o which dieren acors in he cones or power are moivaed by heir

own shor-erm ineress raher han he long-erm sabiliy o he counry. Te

suering o he Aghan people rom 30 years o war and he regional and global

spillover eecs rom he counry’s insabiliy should serve as an impeus o ourallies in Aghanisan and heir inernaional backers o work or a more susainable

poliical arrangemen. Doing so will require dicul compromises on all sides ha

he Unied Saes can push or bu canno dicae.

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