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Reasons for Concern, Reasons for Preparedness

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Pandemic Influenza: Threat versus Preparedness. Scott A. Mugno Managing Director Corporate Safety, Health and Fire Protection FedEx Express. Reasons for Concern, Reasons for Preparedness. QUOTE. “ The worst could be happening and you may not know it for days – - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
  • Reasons for Concern,Reasons for PreparednessPandemic Influenza:Threat versus Preparedness Scott A. Mugno Managing DirectorCorporate Safety, Health and Fire ProtectionFedEx Express

  • QUOTE The worst could be happening and you may not know it for days weeks. Under-responding now may doom any full-scale response youmay hope to take later. () In responding to a potential pandemic, you have to assume the worst guilty until innocent and react accordingly. Marc LipsitchAssociate Professor of EpidemiologyHarvard School of Public Health

  • Why Be Concerned About a Pandemic?A pandemic is a Global Disease outbreakFlu Pandemic is new influenza virus which people have little or no immunity and there is no vaccineIt spreads easily person-to-person, causing serious illness/deathCan sweep across the country/world in a very short timeDifficult to predict when it will occur or how severe it will beWhen it starts, all around the world will be at risk

  • Why Be Concerned About a Pandemic? (continued)Experts concerned about spread of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virusInfluenza A (H5N1) virus raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because it is especially virulent:It is being spread by migratory birdsIt can be transmitted from birds to mammals and in limited circumstances to humansLike other influenza viruses, it continues to evolve (mutate)

  • Why Be Concerned About a Pandemic? (continued)H5N1 virus does not usually infect peopleBut infections have occurred in humansMost of these result from direct or close contact w/H5N1 infected poultry or surfacesWhen species barrier crossed, H5N1 causes largest number of severe disease and deathSo, right now this is still an avian (bird) flu, not a human flu

  • Pandemic HistoryPandemics are inevitable occur throughout history at regular intervals1918 Spanish Flu 40 to 50 million deaths; 675,000+ U.S. deaths1957 Asian Flu 1 to 4 million deaths; 70,000 U.S. deaths1968 Hong Kong Flu 1 to 4 million deaths ; 34,000 U.S. deaths

  • Pandemic History (continued)1918 Spanish Flu Influenza Pandemic Name is misnomer; started in Fort Riley, KansasSwift! Morning, well; sick by Noon; dead by Nightfall Spread across the globe in 4 - 6 months; lasted 18-20 monthsOne quarter Americans believed to have contracted this At least 40 - 50 million people died worldwide; 650k in US Death rate 25 times higher than previous epidemicsPandemic affected and killed younger, healthy people

  • The Situation Today (November 5, 2007)Phase 3 of 6; a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in humans, but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably among humans.60 Countries have confirmed cases of birds infected w/H5N112 Countries have confirmed cases of humans infected w/H5N1Human Cases 2007: 72 cases/48 deaths (66% fatality rate)Human Cases 2003-2007: 335 cases/206 deaths (61% fatality rate)No travel restrictions recommended by WHO nor CDC

  • The Only Constant is Change H5N1 strain may not be the Pandemic FluDont know when it will/wont be the Pandemic FluMay or may not have a vaccineAntivirals may or may not workQuarantine/Dont QuarantineUse masks/Dont use masksSolution: Stay informed/Updated

  • What to Watch For H5N1 virus evolves or mutatesDoctors or nurses becoming infectedClusters of infectionsOutbreaks in under developed areas or countriesQuarantinesSmuggling of birdsUnder reporting of H5N1 cases

  • Why Prepare/Plan Now?

    This is NOT a Drill (or Y2K) Yes, many uncertainties; but waiting is too late Cant prepare after it is confirmedThe SPEED of a pandemic is unpredictableThe MAGNITUDE may be like nothing before Preparedness is NOT just about H5N1 Avian FluMuch of what is required here applies to all your other contingency/continuity incident planning

  • Pandemic Flu and Potential for U.S. Economic Recession

    March 2007 Trust for Americas Health AnalysisU.S. economy could lose an estimated $683 billionThis is roughly a 5.5 percent decline in annual GDPNevada would face the highest (8.08% or $9 billion)California the largest economy could lose $87 billionVermont the smallest economy could lose $1.3 billionPrevious estimates range from 4.25% to 6.00% GDP loss

  • Status of U.S. Pandemic Preparedness

    Key ProgressFederal investment of $7 billion for preparedness; mostly for vaccine developmentNational Strategy for pandemic preparedness and implementation planMostly successful execution of 6 month benchmarksRelease of initial community guidanceAll states have at least a draft pandemic plan

  • Status of U.S. Pandemic Preparedness (continued)

    Key ConcernsLack of vaccine & vaccine production capabilityInadequate capabilities to distribute vaccine & medical equipmentInsufficient stockpile of anti virals & other medical equipment/PPEGaps in hospital & health care provider capacity to manage surgeShortage in health care providersHealth Insurance, Workers Comp, funding issues

  • Likely Community Pandemic Activities

    Issue isolation and quarantine guidelines/requirementsCancel public events and schoolsLimit non essential work activitiesCoordinate area treatment centersCoordinate delivery of vaccines and or anti virals Oversee anti viral allocationPrioritize groups to receive vaccine and administer if availableExpand on going surveillance to include:Deaths and hospitalizationsVaccine effectivenessAnti viral resistance

  • Business/Infrastructure Continuity Planning Elements Overview

    Human Resource IssuesDeciding whether a workplace should stay open or closeAny risks to employees and others must be reasonableKeep Communication Open and FrequentInfluenza ManagerMedical Advisor Activation of the PlanCommunication with StaffMaintaining Essential Business ActivitiesIdentifying Core People/SkillsPlanning for AbsenceKnowledge ManagementCommunications

  • Business/Infrastructure Continuity Planning Elements Overview (continued)

    How might shortages of supplies affect business operations?How will staff and visitors be protected from becoming ill?Restrict Entry of People with SymptomsPersonal HygieneWorkplace CleaningAir ConditioningIncrease Social DistancingManaging Staff Who Become Ill at WorkStaff TravelPersonal Protection Equipment

  • An Overview of the FedEx Express Pandemic Preparedness Plan Pandemic Planning Structure Communications Business Continuity Optimizing Employee Health Reduction of Infection Risk Management of Infected / Potentially Infected Staff Attendance Pay Administrations

  • An Overview of the FedEx Express Pandemic Preparedness Plan (continued)Training Employee Services Workplace Practices Management of Expatriates Management of Travelling Staff Antiviral Medications Management of the Deceased

  • Pandemic Planning StructureResourcing Pandemic Planning Pandemic Preparedness Team Development and Maintenance of a Pandemic Plan

  • CommunicationsKeeping Management Informed Keeping Staff Informed External Communications

  • Business ContinuityPandemic Preparedness Plan in Relation to Policies and Plans Influenza Management Product Not to be Contaminated

  • Optimizing Employee HealthOptimizing Employee Health Seasonal Influenza Vaccination

  • Reduction of Risk InfectionReduce Risk of Employees becoming Infected Outside Facilities Reduce Risk of the Introduction of Virus into Facilities Reduce Risk of Virus Transmission in Facilities

  • Management of Infected/Potentially Infected StaffEmployees Declaring Illness Not To Be Disadvantaged Treatment of Staff Suffering Pandemic Influenza Contact Tracing Antiviral Medications

  • AttendanceMedical Absence Pay Leave of Absence Alternate Work Arrangements Attendance Business Closings

  • Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security Survey A survey conducted of a representative national sample of 1,697 adults age 18 and over, including 821 who had children under age 18 in the household; Released last week at IOM meeting.The margin of error for the total sample was plus or minus 2.4 % pointsNow I want to ask you some questions about a possible outbreak in the U.S. of pandemic flu, a new type of flu that spreads rapidly among humans and causes severe illness. Currently there have not been any cases of pandemic flu in the U.S. However, imagine that there was a severe outbreak in the U.S. and possibly in your community and a lot of people were getting very sick from the flu and the flu was spreading rapidly from person to person.

  • Harvard School of Public Health Project Survey (Continued) Survey asked employed Americans about problems they might have if asked to stay out of work for 7-10 days, 30 days, and 90 daysThe longer people are out of work, the greater the number people who face financial problemsThese findings are a wake-up call for business, that employees have serious financial concerns and are unclear about the workplace plans and policies for dealing with pandemic flu.

  • Harvard School of Public Health Project Survey (Continued) 74% believe they can miss 7-10 days of work without serious financial problems (25% would face problems)57% think theyll have serious financial problems if they had to miss work for 30 days76% think theyll have serious financial problems if they had to miss work for 90 days29% say if they had to stay away from work for a month they would be able to work from home that long

  • Harvard School of Public Health Project Survey (Continued) 19% (employed) are aware of a plan at their workplace to respond to a serious outbreak of pandemic flu22% are very or somewhat worried that their employer would make them go to work even if si

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