Prosumer Energy Culture and a Fractal Like Grid

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Dr Rebecca Ford

Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

Presentation at the Energy Cultures Conference, 7 July 2016

Household 1

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DoThink

Have

Household 1 Energy Culture

DoThink

Have

Household 1 Energy Culture

Comfort

DoThink

Have

Household 1 Energy Culture

Comfort

DoThink

Have

Household 1 Energy Culture

Comfort

DoThink

Have

Household 1 Energy Culture

Comfort

Desire for

resilience

Self-sufficiency

DoThink

Have

Household 1 Energy Culture

Comfort

Desire for

resilience

Future proof NZ

grid

Self-sufficiency

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CLEVER

CODE

Data

Control

DoThink

Have

Household 1 Energy Culture

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DoAspirations

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Experience

overseas

Technological

competence

Financial

considerations

DoThink

Have

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Technological

competence

Financial

considerations

Experience

overseas

1976

1978

1980

19821984

1986

1988

1991

19952000

2004

2006

2008

2009

2011

2013 2014

2015

y=Ax-0.36R²=0.968

Pricehalvesfor6.8 mesproduc on

y=Bx-0.741R²=0.973

Pricehalvesfor2.5 mesproduc on

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0 10,000.0 100,000.0 1,000,000.0

ModuleCost($/W

)

Cumula veProduc on(MWp)

Swanson'sLawShifting the context: the falling costs of solar

Swanson’s Law

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1976

1978

1980

19821984

1986

1988

1991

19952000

2004

2006

2008

2009

2011

2013 2014

2015

y=Ax-0.36R²=0.968

Pricehalvesfor6.8 mesproduc on

y=Bx-0.741R²=0.973

Pricehalvesfor2.5 mesproduc on

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0 10,000.0 100,000.0 1,000,000.0

ModuleCost($/W

)

Cumula veProduc on(MWp)

Swanson'sLawShifting the context: the falling costs of solar

Swanson’s Law

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PV price is

halving every 13

months

Rise of the Prosumer

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Changing Energy Profiles

Net grid load, March 31

Source:

Californian IOU

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Grid ConstraintsCurrent WPD Network Constraints in S West

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K route Two 94km 132kV circuits

Constrains North Cornwall and

Devon from St Tudy to Barnstaple

Fraddon BSP Major Bulk Supply Point

Constrains Central Cornwall

H route Two 2.5km 132kV cables

Constrains South Devon and Plymouth

J route 10km 132kV circuit

Constrains North Devon

F route 69km and 74km 132kV circuits

Constrains entire South West except

Bristol & Bath urban area

Stress in

WPD

network

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Stranded Assets

Didcot Power Station, UK, April 2016

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Manage

constraintsIndependence

Control

Local and

sustainable

Social

good

Resilience &

energy security

Efficient

operation

ProsumerGrid

Incentivise

investment

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BAU and Consumer Values

BAU = $ for kWhConsumer values ignored

Buy kWh

Sell kWh

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Peer-to-peer

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Peer-to-peer

Grid stress and

network

constraints not

alleviated

Aligned values

All prosumers are equal (But some are more equal than others)

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Collective Prosumerism

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Local peer-to-peer

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Arbitraging at the city level

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Generation of the last resort

Fractal grid

Recognises consumer values.

Increased resilience and security.

Supports network operation.

Enables greater distributed generation.

Incentivises effective investment and deployment of resource.

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Dr. Rebecca Ford

Energy transitions

Dr. Janet Stephenson

Energy and Social Science

Juliet Whitaker

Summer student

Prof. Malcolm McCulloch

Energy and Power

For further information: rebecca.ford@ouce.ox.ac.uk

John Connor

The future's not set. There's no fate but what

we make for ourselves.