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Five Trends in 50 Minutes Rebecca Ryan 1 Friday, February 11, 2011
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Five Trends in 50 MinutesRebecca Ryan
1Friday, February 11, 2011
Leaders watch “STEEP” trends:Socio-cultural Technology
Environment Economy Politics
2Friday, February 11, 2011
Trend 1: The Great Unraveling
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Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire.
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1st Turning: “High”Era of promise, belonging
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2nd Turning: “Awakening”Era of euphoria, defiance
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3rd Turning: “Unraveling”Era of separation, anxiety
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4th Turning: “Crisis”Era of survival, gathering
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Trend 2: The Graying and the Browning of America
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Racial and ethnic minorities accounted for 83 percent of our population growth this last decade. We are well on the way to becoming a majority-minority society.
Bruce KatzThe Brookings Institution
“An Impending National Transformation”
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In Wisconsin
Source: Wisconsin Population 2035, WI Dept of Administration
http://www.doa.state.wi.us/docview.asp?locid=9&docid=2108
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The United States is undergoing the most significant socio-demographic change since the huge wave of immigrants in the early 20th century.
Bruce KatzThe Brookings Institution
“An Impending National Transformation”
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Trend 3: The Big City Payoff
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Kleiber’s Law
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A Cat and Mouse Equation
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An animal's metabolic rate scales to the ¾ power of the animal's mass. Thus a cat, having a mass 100 times that of a mouse, will have a metabolism roughly 31 times greater than that of a mouse.
Keliber’s Law
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Geoffrey WestSanta Fe Institute
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Could Kleiber’s Law Apply to Cities?
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When a city doubles in size, it requires an increase in resources of only 85 percent.
West’s Findings
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Whenever a city doubles in size, every measure of economic activity, from construction spending to the amount of bank deposits, increases by approximately 15% per capita.
West’s Findings
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Put another way...
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America's 100 largest metropolitan areas already account for two-thirds of our population and generate 75 percent of our gross domestic product.
Bruce KatzThe Brookings Institution
“An Impending National Transformation”
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In Wisconsin
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Trend 4:The Talent Dividend
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The Talent DividendFor every 1% increase in the number of residents who hold bachelors degrees...
There is a $763 increase in annual regional per capita income.
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Fifty-eight percent of a city’s success, as measured by per capita income, can be attributed to post-secondary degree attainment.
CEOs for Cities
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Trend 5: Technology
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Two & half year old Meets the iPad
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What’s your relationship to these trends?
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We find few senior management teams that spend as much time on opportunity management as they do on operations management.
Gary Hamel & C.K. PrahaladCompeting for the Future (p.85)
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