Recent Changes and Future Directions In Travel Behaviorfaculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/Recent...

Recent Changes and Future Directions In Travel Behavior

www.travelbehavior.us

Novel Modes Workshop Nancy McGuckin

Travel Behavior Analyst

Outline of this discussion:

• Context of travel behavior (e.g. travel as derived demand—but not exclusively!)

• Recent changes indicate an unprecedented shift: people are traveling less for daily activities

• Look at the layered effect of demographic, social, economic, and technological changes

• Some thoughts on future directions


People travel to engage in activities:

Mandatory travel (work, school) have little flexibility in schedule or location

Maintenance travel (shopping, errands) have more flexibility in time and/or location

Discretionary activities (social visit, recreation) have the most flexibility in time and location

Proportion of Daily Trips by Activity Type

Mandatory

Maintenance

Discretionary


Mandatory activities are dominated by work:


Mandatory

Maintenance

Discretionary

Other work related

Return to Work

Go to work

School/rel. activityAttend meeting

Attend school

Here I’m using work tours which include work trips chained with incidental stops for other purposes.


Three-quarters of travel for maintenance activities includes shopping, errands, and meals…


Mandatory

Maintenance

Discretionary

Other

Buy gas

Medical/dental

Shopping/errands

Buy services:vide

o/dry

cleaner/post office/car

service/bank

Get/eat meal

Buy goods: Groceries/clothing/

hardware, etc


Discretionary is the most diverse: Proportion of Daily Trips by Activity Type

Mandatory

Maintenance

Discretionary

Other

Coffee/ice

cream/snacks

Family and

personal

Go to religious

activity

Visit friends and

rels

Go out to to

entertainment/

sports event/bar

other uncoded

Go to

gym/exercise

/sports

Social/Rec


-20% -19%

-20% -20%

-11%

-2% -3% -5%

1%

5% 8%

2%

24% 22%

10%

Perc

ent

Ch

ange

in V

MT

per

Cap

ita

fro

m 1

99

5-2

00

9

Percent Change in VMT per Capita Comparing people in these age groups between 1995 and 2009

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Young age groups have changed the most--their decline in driving has garnered some interest. This graph compares changes in driving rates by age group:


Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series, comparing VMT per capita from the NHTS data series, 1995-2009

15-19

The younger age group (millenials) are a big cohort, at least as numerous as the baby-boom:


In 2030, Millenials will outnumber Baby-Boomers by 22 million:

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Census historic tables 1900 to 2010, and 2030 forecast

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

VM

T/C

apit

a p

er Y

ear


As a result of big changes in a big population group, overall national trends show an unprecedented change:

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Census Population (Jul 1) and HPMS Historic VM-1 Tables including all VMT and Census Population Estimates

Summary • The shifts in travel are strongest

in younger age groups—Millenials--especially young men.

• Baby Boomers are driving much more than people of the same age two decades ago, but even their travel is slowing as the exit the workforce and age past driving.

• The same phenomenon (declines in travel) occurs throughout the western world


Source: The Economist, the Future of Driving, 2012 at: http://www.economist.com/node/21563280/

• Economic Necessity

• Information-Communication Technology

• Social Value of Travel


• Work trips per worker about the same, BUT fewer workers and fewer workers commuting to work (as baby boomers started to retire)

• More people working at home

• On-line higher education (in part or in whole)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 2001 2009

Mill

ions

Work at Home Doubled in Urban Areas

Rural

Urban

Economic necessity: Mandatory travel has declined the least


Technological replacement: Maintenance travel declined the most. On-Line activity is literally changing urban landscapes.


0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Barnes and Noble

Best Buy

Sears + JC Penny

Radio Shack

Staples + Office Depot + Office Max

Circuit City

GameStop

Borders

Tower Record

Independent book stores

Block Buster

Independent record stores

Number of US Stores Closed, 2009-2014

Defunct

Nancy McGuckin’s analysis, sources: Business Insider, Wikipedia, USA Today

Social Value of Travel: Discretionary travel stayed about the same:

Local discretionary travel

stayed about the same. Long-distance travel

increased slightly (This graph shows the increase

in air travel (red line) while vehicle travel flattened (the blue line)

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Annual Numeric Estimate

VMT Air Passenger Revenue Miles


Source: McGuckin’s analysis of HPMS and BTS data

• Social impacts: New attitudes toward vehicle ownership

• Economic impacts: Shift to transit during gas price spikes

• Situational: Walk and bike when possible for exercise and pleasure

• Environmental: Hybrid/alternative fuel vehicles


Social impacts on mode: Attitudes may be changing about auto ownership


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1995 2001 2009

Perc

ent

Percent of People by Age in Zero Veh HHs

25-29

All Other

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series

“For Millennials, cars are not status symbols; they are perceived as unnecessary luxuries that are:

▫ Expensive

▫ Harmful to the environment

▫ Antisocial

They would rather own a great smartphone or laptop instead. (Real-time, portable technology helps to confer the sense of “freedom” that owning a car does not)”

Latitudes Report on Phase 1 findings for

TCRP “Millenials and Mobility”

Economic impacts on mode: Rising gas prices do effect choice of mode

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Perc

ent

of

Trip

s to

Wo

rk

Mo

nth

ly G

as C

ost

Walk and Bike to Work And Monthly Avg. Gas Cost, 2008 Average Monthly Gas Cost all Formualtions all Grades Walk/Bike To Work

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS, Gas Cost from EIA.GOV


Demographic impacts on mode: Although there has been a lot of new interest in cycling, cyclists are getting older (and fewer children are cycling):

www.travelbehavior.us 18

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series

32.3 34.1

39.9 42.7

1990 1995 2001 2009

Average Age of Cyclists 16 and older

Baby Boomers continue to cycle and the average adult cyclist is over ten years older

than he(she) was just two decades ago.

Aging of this group impacts

infrastructure design for cyclists in many of the same ways it does for pedestrians

and drivers.

Vehicle technology impact on mode: Where is the hybrid market going?

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

CAR Pick-Up SUV VanHybrid/Alt Fuel

Mile

s p

er V

eh

icle

Pe

rce

nt o

f F

lee

t

Percent of Fleet Miles per Vehicle

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS

Currently, the largest segment of

hybrid car owners is the Baby Boomers; however Gen Y will

make up about forty percent of car

buyers within 10 years.


People who drive Hybrid/alt fuel vehicles are richer, older, live further from work and drive more miles overall:

NHTS 2009 Var Name:

Label Drives a Hybrid

Drives another Passenger

Vehicle

Income Household Income

$82,777

$76,135

R_AGE Respondent Age

48.09

46.62

VEHMILES Miles vehicle driven last 12 months

14,260

11,258

VEHAGE Vehicle Age

3.6 years

9.0 years

DISTTOWK Distance to Work in Miles

18.2 miles

14.4 miles



Walking Driving Bus/Rail Bicycle

Optimal SituationsNice Outside

Need Exercise

Getting There

ASAP

Bad Weather

Shopping

To or From

Work

Alone

Nice Outside

Need Exercise

Pereived benefits

Better for

Environment

Affordable

Connected to

Community

More Personal

Space

Flexible

Pay-per-

Use/Affordable

Better for

Environment

Better for

Environment

Affordable

Connected to

Community

Top Barriers Slow Too ExpensiveLack of

Personal Space

Slow

Not Child

Friendly

Not Compatible

with Other

Modes

Source: TCRP Study of Millenials and Mobility, Latitudes Phase 2 Findings, page 15

For people with many choices available, Mode use can be situational (rather than habitual):



It seems millenials in the cities studied balance competing factors in their transport choices:


Convenience Exercise Save Money Environmentally Friendly Enjoyable (“Great down time”)



• Widespread adoption of new technology • Some evidence for substitution effects for social and shopping • System-wide changes in the brick-and-mortar and delivery for goods and services • “A Million Markets of One”

People are responding to changes in information technology the way people do:


Incrementally

Via Peer Culture

Economically

Hard-to-quantify

System-wide changes are taking place all around us: (and faster than I can make a new slide!)

Old School New School

• Bookstores

• Travel Agent

• Blockbuster

• Avis/Hertz

• Greyhound

• Taxi

• Priceline

• Facebook/Myspace

• Big Data

• The Internet

• Amazon /Kindle

• On-line booking

• Streaming Video

• Zipcar

• Megabus

• Uber/Lyft

• Hotel Tonight

• IM/Skype/Vine

• Bigger Data

• The Internet of Things


Increase in small commercial vehicle travel may be related to internet deliveries…

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008

Purc

hases in

last

Month

Average Number of On-Line Purchases

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Annual M

iles

VMT from "Other 2-Axle/4-Tire Vehicle"

Source: USPS HDS Data, 2008 from NHTS Source: Historic HPMS



Source: McGuckins analysis and projection of HPMS VM-1 data, re-creating the US PIRG graphic Fig 1 in “New Directions’

And urban goods delivery will continues

to grow:

The E-Deliver

Bike-train

Technology enables “a million markets of one”--individualized modes based on context

New mobility apps:

Smart Transactions (infrastructure use, insurance, parking, etc):

• Digital maps and navigation

• Location-based services

• Multi-modal journey planners

• Multi-modal traveler information services

• Pay as you driver/insure as you drive

• Credit card smart phone ticketing


Thank you! Recent Changes and Future Directions

in Travel Behavior

Nancy McGuckin



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