Recent Observed and Projected Future Climate Trends for the Midwest: Agricultural Impacts Eugene S....

Recent Observed and Projected Future Climate Trends for the Midwest:

Agricultural Impacts

Recent Observed and Projected Future Climate Trends for the Midwest:

Agricultural Impacts

Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

[email protected]

Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

[email protected]

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Food Production and BiofuelsAmes, Iowa

2 March 2010

“I hear so many conflicting views on

climate change, I don’t know what or

who to believe”

“I hear so many conflicting views on

climate change, I don’t know what or

who to believe”Soybean producer from NE Iowa

Established on 3 March 1863 by Abraham Lincoln

Act of Incorporation: to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science or art" whenever called upon to do so by any department of the government

June 2001: National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of Climate Change concludes that human-induced global warming is a serious issue [http://www.nasonline.org/site/DocServer/speech2002.pdf?docID=121]

Established on 3 March 1863 by Abraham Lincoln

Act of Incorporation: to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science or art" whenever called upon to do so by any department of the government

June 2001: National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of Climate Change concludes that human-induced global warming is a serious issue [http://www.nasonline.org/site/DocServer/speech2002.pdf?docID=121]

US National Academy of Sciences

http://www.nasonline.org/

"Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations” (NAS, 2001: p. 21)

"The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue” (NAS, 2001: p. 3)

"Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations” (NAS, 2001: p. 21)

"The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue” (NAS, 2001: p. 3)

National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of Climate Change, 2001: Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.

US National Academy of Sciences

A critical examination of climate modeling as a basis for assessing climate

change

A critical examination of climate modeling as a basis for assessing climate

change Morning session:

The scientific basis underpinning climate change projections for the 21st century

Recent trends in Midwest climate relating to agriculture and farmer adaptations

Afternoon sessions: Limitations of climate models (Arritt) Recent mild summers: What’s going on?

(Anderson) Emerging climate forecasting techniques

(applications maybe you hadn’t thought about)(Gutowski)

Morning session: The scientific basis underpinning climate

change projections for the 21st century Recent trends in Midwest climate relating to

agriculture and farmer adaptations Afternoon sessions:

Limitations of climate models (Arritt) Recent mild summers: What’s going on?

(Anderson) Emerging climate forecasting techniques

(applications maybe you hadn’t thought about)(Gutowski)

Presenters collectively have over 50 years of global and regional climate modeling research experience

In science, the prevailing theory is the one that explains the balance of evidence

What is the evidence?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

Global Mean Surface Temperature





http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

NASA

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Temperature Trends in Upper and Lower Atmosphere

Temperature Trends in Upper and Lower Atmosphere

Upper Atmosphere

(Stratosphere)

Lower Atmosphere

(Troposphere)

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Arctic Sea-Ice Decline

Decline in Greenland Ice Mass

Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year

Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

V

Ocean Heat Content

1oC rise in top 3 m of global ocean is equivalent to a 1oC rise in entire atmosphere

Where is this extra heat coming from?

Possible mechanisms:

• More solar radiation• Less reflection from clouds• Less reflection from Earth’s

surface• More energy trapped and recycled by ozone and greenhouse gases

Earth’s Energy Balance:

Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation

But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance

Earth’s Energy Balance:

Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation

But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance

?

?

? ?

*Other solar cycles have periods of 22,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years with 0.1% variation.

0.1%

0.1%

Forcing Factors in the Global Climate


More trapped (recycled) heat

More cloud & land reflection

See Arritt for details this afternoon

Increased Greenhouse Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global HeatingGases => Global Heating

Increased Greenhouse Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global HeatingGases => Global Heating

Increasing Increasing greenhouse gases greenhouse gases increases heating increases heating of the Earthof the Earth

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)

Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990


Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes


Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes

Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature.



Attribution studies: See Anderson this afternoon for applications to the Midwest

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

The balance of evidence for the magnitude and distribution of warming is explained by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Balanced fuel sourcesEnergy intensive

More environmentally friendly

If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007

FI =fossil intensive

IPCC 2007

December-January-February Temperature Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999

7.2oF

6.3oF

IPCC 2007

June-July-August Temperature Change


4.5oF

5.4oF

June-July-August Temperature Change


4.5oF

5.4oF

Not the direction of current trends (see Anderson this afternoon)

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007

Low confidence in model projection of summer precipitation. See Arritt presentation this afternoon

IPCC 2007




Low confidence: See Arritt this

afternoon

Emerging techniques for improvement: See Gutowski this

afternoon


Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.

Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.


MitigationPossible

AdaptationNecessary

AdaptationNecessary

The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions


MitigationPossible

AdaptationNecessary

AdaptationNecessary


Farmers install more drainage tile


AdaptationNecessary

AdaptationNecessary

MitigationPossible



AdaptationNecessary

AdaptationNecessary

MitigationPossible

The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisionsFarmers plant earlier,

choose longer season hybrids

Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000

Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000

See Anderson presentation this afternoon

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 13

1988: 10

2009: 0

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 13

1988: 10

2009: 0

6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years

State-Wide Average Data


Totals above 40”

Cedar Rapids Data

Cedar Rapids Data

Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet


Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest

Temperature


Temperature

*Estimated from IPCC reports

*Estimated from IPCC reports


Precipitation


Precipitation

*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports


Other


Other

Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change

Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change

Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later

Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows

More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields

Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces

Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures

Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions

Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions

Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later

Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows

More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields

Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces

Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures

Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions

Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions

HIGHER YIELDS!!Is it genetics or climate? See

Anderson this afternoon

Will These Agriculturally Favorable Midwest Climate Trends Continue?Will These Agriculturally Favorable Midwest Climate Trends Continue?

In the short-term (next 5-10 years) climatic conditions will be dominated by natural variability from base conditions of the past 20 years (not long-term averages)

If we continue to have high spring and summer rainfall and soil moisture, we likely will continue to have lower chances of extended periods of extreme heat

If we continue to have high spring and summer rainfall and soil moisture, we likely will continue to have pathogens favored by high humidities

In the longer term (>50 years), hot summers, milder winters, and higher variability of precipitation will become more dominant

Failure to limit global carbon emissions will accelerate trends toward less favorable agricultural climate for Iowa

In the short-term (next 5-10 years) climatic conditions will be dominated by natural variability from base conditions of the past 20 years (not long-term averages)

If we continue to have high spring and summer rainfall and soil moisture, we likely will continue to have lower chances of extended periods of extreme heat

If we continue to have high spring and summer rainfall and soil moisture, we likely will continue to have pathogens favored by high humidities

In the longer term (>50 years), hot summers, milder winters, and higher variability of precipitation will become more dominant

Failure to limit global carbon emissions will accelerate trends toward less favorable agricultural climate for Iowa

Caution: These are my speculations!!

Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture

IPCC 2007

SummarySummary There is no scientifically defensible explanation for

atmospheric warming, increase in ocean heat content, and loss of ocean and land ice over the last 40 year other than increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases

Some recent climate trends in the Midwest that have been favorable to agriculture likely will continue in the next few years

Climate challenges to agriculture will intensify toward mid-century

Global and regional climate models have much to offer for understanding future Midwest and global agricultural production: Agriculture needs future climate information at regional scales.

The afternoon climate model session will be led by world experts in seasonal climate forecast models, future climate extremes, and attribution studies.

There is no scientifically defensible explanation for atmospheric warming, increase in ocean heat content, and loss of ocean and land ice over the last 40 year other than increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases

Some recent climate trends in the Midwest that have been favorable to agriculture likely will continue in the next few years

Climate challenges to agriculture will intensify toward mid-century

Global and regional climate models have much to offer for understanding future Midwest and global agricultural production: Agriculture needs future climate information at regional scales.

The afternoon climate model session will be led by world experts in seasonal climate forecast models, future climate extremes, and attribution studies.

For More InformationFor More Information National academies of science joint statement (May 2009):

G8+5 Academies’ joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future. [http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-

climate09.pdf] North American Regional Climate Change Assessment

Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

Contact me directly: [email protected]

National academies of science joint statement (May 2009): G8+5 Academies’ joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future. [http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-

climate09.pdf] North American Regional Climate Change Assessment

Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

Contact me directly: [email protected]

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/



http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

mailto:[email protected]




http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

mailto:[email protected]

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Recent Observed and Projected Future Climate Trends for the Midwest: Agricultural Impacts Eugene S....

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