Recovery and

resettlement trends

Presented by:

Dr. Allison Plyer

Recovery funding

Damages caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita dwarfed those of previous disasters

Hurricanes Katrina & Rita: $150 billion

Sources: Damage estimates: “Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters 2005: high earthquake casualties, new dimension in windstorm losses,” Swiss Re Sigma Insurance Research, No.2/2006, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Economic Research & Consulting. Zurich. www.swissre.com/sigma. Total Damages are defined by the sigma study are all the financial losses directly attributable to a major event (damage to buildings, infrastructure, vehicles, etc., irrespective of whether insured or not. Includes business interruption directly due to building damage, but does not include indirect financial detriments such as loss of earnings by down-stream suppliers, shortfall in GDP, nor non-economic losses. All figures are presented in 2005 dollars. Federal spending: Testimony of Donald E. Powell, Federal Coordinator for Gulf Coast Rebuilding before the U. S. House Committee on the Budget August 2, 2007 http://www.dhs.gov/xprepresp/programs/gc_1187965134242.shtml

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Northridge Earthquake

9/11 Hurricane Andrew

Hurricanes Katrina & Rita

Most federal spending went to relief, not rebuilding

Source: Total federal spending: “Katrina/Rita Financial Assistance (Emergency Supplementals),” U.S. Department of Homeland Security, http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/gcr_katrina-rita_finasst.pdf. Includes flood insurance payments. Emergency relief: The New Orleans Index,” Second Anniversary Edition, The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Programs & Greater New Orleans Community Data Center. August 2007. www.gnocdc.org/NOLAIndex/ESNOLAIndexAug07.pdf.

Emergency Relief, $75B

Rebuilding Funds, $45B

Federal spending: $120.5 billion

Charitable and insurance funding do not close the gap

Sources: Private insurance: Louisiana Department of Insurance and Mississippi Insurance Department, 97 percent of claims reported. Excludes flood insurance payments. Charitable giving : “Giving in the Aftermath to the Gulf Coast Hurricanes,” Foundation Center, August 2007 http://foundationcenter.org/gainknowledge/research/pdf/katrina_report_2007.pdf; Chronicle of Philanthropy and Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University Federal rebuilding spending : “The New Orleans Index,” Second Anniversary Edition, The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Programs & Greater New Orleans Community Data Center. August 2007, www.gnocdc.org/NOLAIndex/ESNOLAIndexAug07.pdf.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Damages Funding

Charitable Giving

Private Insurance Claims

Federal Rebuilding

xx

Source: FEMA. GNOCDC.org

FEMA has obligated $9.8 billion for the New Orleans metro, with $6.3 billion paid to localities and $3.5 billion still

forthcoming

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

$9.8 billion, Total obligated

$6.3 billion, Total paid

Economy

The New Orleans metro economy has weathered the recession relatively well.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

New Orleans metro

1.2%

United States

-2.5%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

Percent change in nonfarm jobs

November 2007 - November 2012

Housing costs

Orleans homeowners, even those without mortgages, have sharply higher housing costs since 2004.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2004 and 2010.

Note: Data are in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars using the CPI-U-RS.

Median monthly housing costs for homeowners in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars, Orleans Parish

Housing costs for homeowners include:

•Mortgage

•Taxes

• Insurance

• Utilities

35 percent of New Orleans homeowners are now cost-burdened.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2010.

n.s.=indicates different from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Homeowners paying unaffordable housing costs 30% or more of pre-tax income on housing, 2010

Renter costs spiked 37 percent (after thousands of non-subsidized, but cheap rentals were destroyed).

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2004 and 2010.

Note: Data are in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars using the CPI-U-RS.

Monthly housing costs for renters in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars, Orleans Parish

Housing costs for renters include:

•Rent

• Utilities

Renter costs in New Orleans are now well above similar cities.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.

n.s.=indicates different from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Rent comparison across cities median gross monthly housing costs for rentals of any size, 2010

New Orleans renters pay 5 percent more than the U.S. average for housing from incomes that are 20 percent lower.

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.

Annual housing costs vs. income for renters, 2010

Due to a prevalence of low-wage jobs, Orleans renters are more likely to pay at least half their income on housing than New York renters.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.

n.s.=indicates different from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Percent of renters paying unaffordable housing costs 50% or more of income on housing, 2010

Because nearly half of all full-time year round workers in the New Orleans metro earn less than $35,000 annual.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.

Workers by income range Full-time, year-round workers, New Orleans metro, 2010

Demographic trends

Source: GNO Community Data Center analysis of USPS Delivery Statistics Product.

New Orleans population continues to grow and the city has reached 87.5 percent of its pre-Katrina number of households actively receiving mail.

GNOCDC.org

Aug-06

49.5%

Aug-07

69.2%

Aug-08

72.1%

Aug-09

77.1%

Aug-10

80.4%

Aug-11

84.7%

Aug-12

86.6%

Mar-13

87.5%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Percent of pre-Katrina households receiving mail

Looking only at decennial census counts, the city’s population has shrunk significantly from its peak in 1960.

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of data from “Bienville’s Dilemma” by Richard Campanella and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Population New Orleans

From 2000 to 2010, New Orleans lost 118,000 blacks, 24,000

whites, 1,000 Asians, and gained 3,000 Hispanics.

Population by race/ethnicity Orleans Parish

Sources: GNOCDC.org compilation of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

As the baby boomers age and birth rates fall, the mix of household types has changed. The city now has 50,000 individuals living alone and 35,000 families with children.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

Share of total households by type New Orleans

Housing development and abandonment since 1960

While the city has lost substantial population since 1960, from a geographic perspective the city has grown since 1960.

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of data from “Bienville’s Dilemma” by Richard Campanella and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Population New Orleans

The areas of the city first to be developed were closer to the river in the more elevated parts of the city, and the last areas to be developed were the lowest lying sections of the city.

Sources: Campanella, R. (2002). Time and place in New Orleans: Past geographies in the present day. Gretna, Louisiana: Pelican Publishing.

Residential development zones New Orleans

Density of occupied housing units in New Orleans, 1960

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011.

Density of occupied housing units in New Orleans, 1980

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011.

Density of occupied housing units in New Orleans, 2000

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011.

Density of occupied housing units in New Orleans, 2010

From 2000 to 2010, New Orleans’ CBD and Warehouse District gained households amidst declines in adjacent neighborhoods.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Notes: The use of white on the map indicates very little or no change. GNOCDC normalized the 2000 and 2010 census blocks using the Census Bureau census block relationship file in order to conduct a statistical analysis of occupied housing unit trends within a 3,000 sq ft radius of each individual census block. The resulting “heat” map demonstrates overall trends within an area; however, there are pockets of loss within areas of overall growth and pockets of growth within areas of overall loss.

Change in occupied housing units, 2000-2010 New Orleans' historic core

Recovery and

resettlement trends

Presented by:

Dr. Allison Plyer