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Recruitment and Retention of High Quality Teachers: Some
International Evidence
Prof Peter. J. DoltonRoyal Holloway, University of London
& Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics
Email: [email protected]
World Bank South Asia Regional Conference on Education Quality
New Delhi, India, October 24-26, 2007
Outline of Talk
1. Context: The Market Story
2. Aspects of Demand
3. The Supply of Teachers –Recruitment and Retention
4. Teacher’s Pay
5. Who Becomes a Teacher?
6. Incentives & Performance Related Pay.
7. Reflections on Teacher Training
8. Sideways Look at Teachers in India
9. Areas for Further Necessary Research.
1. The Market Story
Assume :
• Demographically determined inelastic demand.
Figure – The Labour Market for Teachers
Wa D
Q
Q
1. The Market Story
Assume :• Demographically determined inelastic demand.
• Government Budget Constraint.
Figure – The Labour Market for Teachers
Wa D
E
Q
Q
1.The Market Story
Assume :• Demographically determined inelastic demand. • Government Budget Constraint.
• Homogenous Supply & Government Sets Wages.
Some outputs are easier to observe than others!
Figure – The Labour Market for Teachers
Wa D
S
aW
agW
E
Q gQ Q
2. Aspects of Demand
• Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population
The Percentage of teachers aged 50 years and over, lower
secondary education
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1992
1996
2000
The age distribution of teachers in England (2000)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Primary
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Secondary
2. Aspects of Demand
• Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population
• Variation in Pupil/Teacher Ratios
01
02
03
04
0
Stu
de
nts
/Te
ach
ers
ra
tio 2
00
1
Den
mar
k
Hun
ga
ry
Ita
ly
Por
tug
al
Nor
wa
y
Ice
lan
d
Sw
ee
den
Gre
ece
Aus
tria
Spa
in
Bel
giu
m
US
A
Sw
itze
r
Net
he
rla
nd
Fin
lan
d
Aus
tra
lia
Cze
k R
epu
blic
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Uru
gu
ay
New
Zea
lan
d
Jord
an
UK
Ma
lays
ia
Ire
lan
d
Arg
en
tina
Tu
nisi
a
Bra
zil
Per
u
Ind
one
sia
Tu
rke
y
Kor
ea
Chi
le
Phi
lipp
ine
s
Source: Education at a Glance, OECD (2003)
Primary education
Students/Teachers ratio 2000 by country
2. Aspects of Demand
• Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population• Variation in Pupil/Teacher Ratios
• Variation in Teacher Hours Worked
050
01,
000
1,50
0T
each
ers
ann
ual w
orki
ng
hour
s 20
00
Icel
and
Tur
key
Den
mar
kC
zek
Rep
ublic
Fin
land
Aus
tria
Nor
way
Tun
isia
Uru
guay
Italy
Mal
aysi
aT
haila
ndA
rgen
tina
Jord
anH
unga
ryG
reec
eG
erm
any
Per
uB
razi
lP
ortu
gal
Kor
eaB
elgi
umC
hile
Spa
inA
ustr
alia
Sw
itzer
Fra
nce
Irel
and
Net
herla
ndN
ew Z
eala
ndU
SA
Phi
lippi
nes
Indo
nesi
a
Source: Education at a Glance, OECD (2003)
Primary educationTeachers annual working hours 2000 by country
2. Aspects of Demand
• Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population• Variation in Pupil/Teacher Ratios• Variation in Teacher Hours Worked
• Overall Market Position
Excess Demand of Teachers, by Sector in the UK, 1947-2000
Teachers in service – Demand for teachers
Source: Own calculations
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
700001
94
6
19
49
19
52
19
55
19
58
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
Year
Ex
ce
ss
De
ma
nd
fo
r T
ea
ch
ers
Nu
mb
ers
Secondary Total Primary
Based on the number of children of school age and the desired Pupil-teacher ratios
3. Aspects of Supply
• What is supply? Non- standard.
The elements of teacher supply
Supply of Teachers
Teacher Training Programme students
Teachers in Service
Re-EntrantsNew Entrants
Leavers
Retirement
Non-Retirement
Current SupplyPotential Supply
Pool of Inactive Teachers
Pool of Recoverable Teachers
Temporary Teachers
Cross-country mean % of upper secondary students attending schools where the principal reported that hiring fully qualified
teachers is difficult, 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
% of 15-year-old students enrolled in schools where principals report learning is hindered ‘to some extent’ or ‘a lot’ by a
shortage/inadequacy of teachers:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mathematics Science
% of upper secondary students attending schools that use the following methods to respond to teacher vacancies, as reported
by school principals
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Swed
en
Finl
and
Switz
erla
nd
Nor
way
Bel
gium
(Fl
.)
Den
mar
k
Port
ugal
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Mex
ico
Kor
ea
Spai
n
Net
herl
ands
Hire a teacher with less than a full qualification Add sections (courses) to other teachers' normal teaching hours
Expand the size of some of the classes Cancel a planned course
4. Teacher’s Pay
• International dimension• Senior /Junior pay teacher ratio• Across time in one country- UK.• Across a Lifetime – Relative decline.
01
23
Tea
che
rs w
age/
GD
P 2
001
Cze
ch R
epub
licH
unga
ryIn
done
sia
Italy
Arg
entin
aF
inla
ndG
reec
eS
wed
enN
orw
ayA
ustr
iaF
ranc
eP
eru
Bel
gium
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Irel
and
Net
herla
ndC
hile
Bra
zil
Icel
and
Aus
tral
iaUK
Spa
inS
witz
erla
ndU
rugu
ayK
orea
New
Zea
land
Por
tuga
lM
alay
sia
Tur
key
Ger
man
yT
unis
iaT
haila
ndD
enm
ark
Phi
lippi
nes
Source: Education at a Glance, OECD (2003)
Primary educationTeachers wage/GDP 2001 by country
Ratio of salary after 15 years of experience to GDP per capita, public institutions, lower secondary education, 1994 and 2001
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1994 2001
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Equality
Teacher Relative w ages (using data from the NES)
Teacher relative w ages (adjusted data from the NES and Employment Gazette)
UK Relative Teachers’ Wages1955-2000
Source: Own calculations
Houghton Clegg
Age-Earning profile of Primary , Secondary School
Teachers and an Alternative occupation, Males 1975-2000 10000
20000
30000
40000
10000
20000
30000
40000
0 25-29 40-49 60-64 0 25-29 40-49 60-64 0 25-29 40-49 60-64
1975 1980 1985
1990 1995 2000
Alt_Occ Primary_Teachers
Secondary_Teachers
Earn
ings (
£ in 2
002 p
rices)
Age Category
Graphs by Year
5. Who Becomes a Teacher?
– Huge literature on this topic – See my Handbook Chapter.
– BUT we need more intergenerational studies.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Cohort 60 Cohort 70 Cohort 80 Cohort 85 Cohort 90
Observed ind1 A-level 6 Science London Woman
The predicted probability of Graduates becoming a teacher across cohorts. Ind1 - Man, Arts, A-level=10, 2:1 degree, not in London
6. Incentives & Performance Related Pay.
Problematic because:• Multitasking Environment (Holmstrom-Milgram• Incentives can induce counterproductive effects• Multiple Principals• Dolton et al book shows all the practical and
econometric problems of PRP• Lavy paper shows reward by pupil gain score
can work.
‘Yes, it is pretty unfair. They should allow teachers time for lunch too.’
7. Reflections on Teacher Training
Based on Lavy, Moreno, Vaillant• Technological change is too fast for training methods.• Teacher training institutions are too weak.• Expenditure on Teacher CPD is too low 1% compared to
6% UNESCO. • Teachers are by default responsible for their own
training.• Training is on the job and practical – hence difficult to
articulate and systematize.• Education Policy is a battlefield• Are Teachers really Professionals – if so then States
should not control so much.
‘To save democracy, is it? I have been hurling stones thinking it’s about teachers’ pay!’
8. Sideways Look at Teachers in India
• Teacher Truancy – Duflo Study
• Growing Private Sector – Kingdon
• Teacher Relative Earnings
• Teacher Incentives
• Teacher Training
9. Areas for Further Necessary Research. Teacher Quality
• What are costs of improving teacher quality?
• What are interactions between teacher unions and teacher quality.
• Relationship between accountability and teacher quality.
• Principal –Agent problem of partial observability.