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Recycling 2010: The Past, Present and Future Jerry Powell Resource Recycling Portland, Oregon www.resource-recycling.com
Recycling 2010: The Past, Present and Future
Jerry Powell
Resource Recycling
Portland, Oregon
www.resource-recycling.com
What we’ll look at today
• A review of recycling progress
• An assessment of where we stand now
• An analysis of key trends that may determine recycling’s future
Recycling’s progress
After two decades of important growth, the recycling’s rate of increase has declined. We are capturing the easiest tons, thus making growth harder and more expensive than in the past.
Total MSW generation (by material), 2008250 million tons (before recycling)
Paper31.0%
Glass4.9%
Metals8.4%
Plastics12.0%
Rubber, leather and textiles
7.9%
Wood6.6% Yard
trimmings13.2%
Food scraps12.7%
Other3.3%
MSW managementin the United States, 2008
Combustion with Energy
Recovery12.6%
Discarded54.2%
Recovery33.2%
MSW recycling volumes and rate
5.6 6.5 8.0 9.314.5 16.7
33.2
55.8
69.4
79.284.2
82.9
6.4% 6.2% 6.6% 7.3%9.6% 10.1% 16.2%
26.0%29.0%
31.7%33.1% 33.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2008
Perc
ent
of
gen
erat
ion
rec
ycle
d
Tota
l MSW
rec
yclin
g (m
illio
n t
on
s)
Total MSW recycling Percent recycling
Recycling rates for selected products, 2008
99.2
70.964.7 62.8
48.2
35.429.3 28 27.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Auto Batteries
Office-type Papers
Yard Trimmings
Steel Cans Aluminum Beer & Soda
Cans
Tires HDPE Natural (white
translucent bottles)
Glass Containers
PET Bottles & Jars
Re
cycl
ing
Rat
e (
Pe
rce
nt)
We have seen growth in collections
We have seen growth in processing
We continue to grow
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
'91 '96 '01 '06 '09 est
U.S. MRFs
Recycling’s progress
Yes, more than 9,000 communities collect recyclables curbside. Yes, more than half of Americans can set out recyclables weekly.
But our progress has slowed.
Recycling rates have flattened out.
UBC recycling rate
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
UBC Recycling Rate
HDPE recycling rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
HDPE Recycling Rate
PET recycling rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
PET Recycling Rate
Paper recycling rate
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Annual Paper Recycling Rate (in percent)
Steel recycling rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Annual Ferrous Recycling Rates (in percent)
Recycling’s progress
And then we encountered the Great Recession of 2008-2010. While recycling rates were not severely affected, recovery economics became ugly.
Impact on exports in the first quarter of 2009
Material Volume Price
Paper - 14% - 22%
Plastics + 15% - 32%
Aluminum - 40% - 31%
Ferrous Scrap + 12% - 26%
Homopolymer HDPEbale prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Aluminum can prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
PET bale prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Recovered paper prices(18 grades combined)
0
50
100
150
200
250
ONP No. 8 price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Ferrous scrap prices(No. 1 HMS)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Recycling’s progress
And we have seen a fundamental shift in critical recycling markets. The continuing rise in Chinese demand during a recession has resulted in systemic changes in the American recycling market.
Plastics exports
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
5,000,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Plastics Total Weight (pounds)
Ferrous scrap exports
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ferrous Total Weight (million metric tons)
Recycling’s progress
The crunch created by high export demand and a crushing recession has been toughest on the domestic paper industry.
Paper collections continue
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
'93 '97 '01 '05 '09 est
Paper recovery in million tons
Use of recovered fiber by U.S. paper industry sector
4.8%
30%
42%
48%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Printing & Writing
Newsprint
Containerboard
Paperboard
Tissue
Recovered paper exports
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Paper Total Weight (in million metric tons)
2009 recovered paper market2009
Marketplace
58%
42%
Versus 2008
-12.5%
+ 7.5%
- 5.0%
Million Tons
28.8
21.0
49.8
Domestic
Exports
Total
Newsprint: a serious problem
North American shipments in million tons:
2007: 12.22008: 11.22009: 8.1
This is a loss of 34 percent in just two years.
CHINA
North America
14.1 million
tons
51%
Other
13.4 million
tons
49%
Chinese Imports of recovered paper
Total Chinese imports of recovered paper in 2009 totaled 27.5 million tons, up 14 percent. The North American level of shipments to China was 14.1 million tons, up 16 percent. China is two-thirds of the U.S. export market.
Paper recycling markets:Bankruptcies
AbitibiBowater Newsprint
Blue Heron Paper Newsprint
Caraustar Paperboard
Newark Group Paperboard
Smurfit-Stone Paperboard
Paper recycling markets:Closures
Caraustar Chattanooga, TN
Caraustar Richmond, VA
Caraustar Charlotte, NC
International Paper Albany, OR
Smurfit-Stone Missoula, MT
Sonoco Rockton, IL
Sonoco Lancaster, OH
Recycling’s future
Ten issues or trends will help form where recycling is headed in the next decade.
1: More programs, not fewer
During the recession, more than 100 North American communities launched or expanded local recycling efforts. This trend will continue, as more communities drive deeper into the waste stream.
Recycling coordinator survey
We will see growth in recycling in the next years:
-- 49 percent of programs plan to add materials
-- 42 percent will add homes to routes
-- 30 percent plan to move ahead in food scrap recovery
2: Rising focus on toxics
Local and state initiatives targeting the management of toxics in solid waste will grow in number and effect. Witness the amazing level of knowledge in Ontario regarding the household hazardous waste program
3: Stewardship revisions
Extended product stewardship is becoming the prevailing waste management model in all of North America. However, initiatives are surfacing to improve existing EPR systems. The upgrading of EPR systems is now focused on five issues.
3: Stewardship’s flaws
1. Product stewardship are 1R programs
2. They lack market development elements
3. They often provide no local preference
4. Some have no downstream auditing
5. Some contain goals that discourage additional recycling
4: North American EPR
Brand owners and other stewards in the U.S. are now looking at a possible national EPR system for residential printed and packaging items. If this takes place in the next decade, pressure will occur to bring existing EPR systems in the U.S. and Canada under this uniform system.
5: Food
Look for more and more North American communities to add food discards – both commercial and residential – to organics collection and composting systems.
6: Continued consolidation
More and more recyclables will be collected and processed by fewer and fewer players. Mergers and acquisitions will continue.
The impact
Big supplier Million tons/year
Casella 1.5
Greenstar North America 1.6
Republic/Allied Waste 3.3
Waste Connections 1.0
Waste Management 7.6
The impactBig consumer Million tons/year
Abitibi-Bowater 2.0
Caraustar 3.0
Cascades 2.1
Georgia-Pacific 4.0
International Paper 5.0
Rock-Tenn 2.0
Smurfit-Stone 2.7
The impact
Steel company Processing plants
Commercial Metals 36
Nucor 58
Schnitzer Steel 42
Steel Dynamics 27
The impact
Paper company Processing plants
International Paper 33
Newark Group 11
Rock-Tenn 9
Sonoco 17
Smurfit-Stone 28
SP Newsprint 21
6: Continued consolidation
Top 50 recovered paper processors:
o handle nearly half of all collected fiber
o operate 612 plants
o average plant does 3,200 tons per month
Source: Moore & Associates, 2010.
6: Continued consolidation
Top four metal processors handle 23 million metric tons per yearo Sims: 7.2 million metric tonso OmniSource: 5.8 million metric tons o Schnitzer Steel: 5.2 million metric tonso David J. Joseph: 5.0 million metric tons
7: Continuing deindustrialization
The lack of attention in the U.S. and Canada toward an industrial policy will hurt recycling. As piles of recyclables climb, states will be urged to, once again, launch recycling market development programs.
8: Downstream auditing
The environmental health and safety debate in electronics recycling will spill over to other materials in the coming years.
Chinese CRT glass processing
Resource RecyclingPortland, Oregon
Resource RecyclingPortland, Oregon
9: Reframing
We will move towards better metrics. Less attention will be focused on recycling rates, and more governments and industries will consider global warming and life-cycle issues when making decisions.
10: Sustainability
We are far from being a sustainable practice, and more effort is required for us to move forward. That is recycling’s greatest challenge going forward.
SustainabilityEconomy
EcologyEquity
Conclusion
We are ready once again to move forward. And we must.
Energy consequences of not recycling
Material
Annual lbs per
Household
Barrels
Saved per
Ton Barrels Lost
Annually
Energy Value Lost
(@$75/bbl in billion
dollars)Value per
Household
Fiber 1,821.6 1.70 85,425,000 $6.407 $116.14
Aluminum Cans 27.0 40.00 28,936,875 $2.170 $40.47
PET Bottles 39.0 16.30 28,115,870 $2.108 $23.87
HDPE Bottles 30.1 16.30 20,454,870 $1.534 $18.41
Glass Bottles 883.4 0.12 4,543,855 $.341 $3.98
Steel Cans 19.2 1.80 1,141,756 $.085 $1.30
Total 2,820.4 1.93 168,618,226 $12.645 $204.16
168,600,000 barrels or 3.5%Source: SWANA/SRI
We are sending moneyto the landfill
Material Recycling Rate Value of Unrecovered
Paper 57% $3.1 Billion
Aluminum Cans 55% $1.3 Billion
Plastic Bottles 27% HDPE, 29% PET $1.6 Billion
Steel Cans 65% $0.4 Billion
Glass Bottles 28% $0.1 Billion
Total $6.5 Billion
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