(1)

Credit Crunch Tracking

September 2010

Happy...but Anxious For Ireland

(2)

It’s not as bad as we anticipated, with less personal impact over the past year than originally feared.

High maintenance or improvement in quality of life, happiness & in energy and motivation.

However, caution over Irish economy means we are holding our breath to see what happens, & also our pulse strings.

Caution remains among happy consumers

(3)

The Recession is not as bad as we expected.

Actual personal impact overall is lower than was expected a year ago.

(4)

3046High impact (8-10)

Limited Impact (1-3)

Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact - Overall

Average 7.0

Oct‘09%

Some Impact (4-7) 44

We feared the worst but it hasn’t happened.

Expected

5.9

Sept‘10%

49

Actual

-16%

+5%

2110

(5)

4643

49 49

55

45

30

44

4951

43

3027

33 3230

33

19

24

34 34

27

18-34%

35-44%

45-64%

AGE

65+%

Any%

None%

CHILDREN

Male%

Female%

GENDER

ABC1%

C2DE%

SOCIALCLASS

Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact – Net High Impact (8-10)

TOTAL%

The greatest gap between expected & actual impact is seen in the 35-44 year old age category. This age cohort were very pessimistic but

they appear to have been impacted the same degree as the average.

ActualSept‘10

ExpectedOct‘10

(6)

This trend of perception being worse than reality carries forward to monthly spending, way of life and job security also.

(7)

4331

3823

Monthly Spending

Average

Your Way Of Life

6.7 6.4

High impact (8-10)

Limited Impact (1-3)

Some Impact (4-7) 41 45

Oct‘09%

Oct‘09%

Expected & Actual Impact of Recession on….

5.5

51

Sept‘10%

5.8

46

Sept‘10%

ExpectedImpact

ActualImpact

-12% -15%

+5% +6%

Our spending and way of life haven’t been impacted as we expected.

1615

2125

(8)

Full-time Workers Part-time Workers

Job Security wasn’t as shaky as expected…

3121

4635

Average 5.6 6.5

High impact (8-10)

Limited Impact (1-3)

Some Impact (4-7) 40 34

Oct‘09%

Oct‘09%

5.7

33

Sept‘10%

4.4

33

Sept‘10%

ExpectedImpact

ActualImpact

-10% -11%

-7% -1%

Lower impact on job security than expected for both full and part-time workers

193026

45

(9)

Even in this time of Recession we are generally happy.

For some happiness has even increased!

(10)

23 13 16 18

271722 23Better

Worse

The Same 60

Change Compared To Same Time Last Year in ....

Quality of Life

%

Your Happiness

%

65

Your Energy for Life

%

61

Your Motivation

%

5477%

87% 84%82%

Only 1 in 4 claim their quality of life has failed since the same time last year and for 6 out of 7 their happiness has maintained or

increased.

(11)

% Better/Same as same time last year

Quality of LifeYour

HappinessYour Energy

LifeYour

Motivation

Total 77 87 84 82

Gender

Male 78 86 84 83

Female 77 88 83 80

Age

18-34 82 89 88 86

35-44 69 87 89 79

45-64 73 82 77 79

65+ 86 90 80 78

Social Class

ABC1 80 88 86 85

C2DE 76 86 82 78

Middle ages have seen greater impact on Quality Of Life, while the Energy For Life of pre-retireds is lower than average

Change Compared To Same Time Last Year Analysed by key demographics

(12)

Dubliners and those in urban areas have seen most improvement in quality of life, happiness, motivation & energy for life

(13)

13

11

17

25

13

19

17

Urban AREA

Rural

Munster

Conn/Ulster

Dublin

Rest of Leinster

REGION

Levels rating better than last year on....

TOTAL

19

20

22

26

20

23

22

20

19

26

27

19

26

23

22

25

26

33

23

30

27

Quality of Life

%

Your Happiness

%

Your Energy for Life

%

Your Motivation

%

Dubliners & those in urban areas see greatest improvement across all measures

(14)

Although it may not have been as bad as we expected so far, consumers are still holding their breaths

(15)

38 39 3235 29 29

40 4129 17 21 30

9 718

21 2317

1 1

21 2

2

Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Average

Stay the same (3)Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

1.92

12

1.88

11

2.32

18

NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 19 38

How do you expect the Irish economy to fare in the next 6 months?

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

2.54

26

48

Feb‘10%

2.57

51

May‘10%

26

The outlook is more bleak than previous 2010 waves, and closely matches the view at same period last year.

Almost 1 in 3 expect the Irish economy to fare much worse over the next 6 months.

But 1 in 5 expect the economy to improve over the next 6 months.

2.32

41

Sept‘10%

22

(16)

Once again, higher expectations seen among the youth.

However, positivity declines with age.

(17)

Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5)

41 40 41

48

42

37

32

45

39

46

37

18-34%

35-44%

45-64%

AGE

65+%

Any%

None%

CHILDREN

Male%

Female%

GENDER

ABC1%

C2DE%

SOCIALCLASS

TOTAL%

Change since

Feb ‘10-10% -12% -8% -8% -3% -10% -21% -5% -13% -6% -11%

Positivity for the Irish Economy declines with age

(18)

The less positive outlook for Ireland is not replicated for the world economy, with no change since May.

(19)

33 3421 17 21 21

15 11

85

8 8

31 3144

53 43 413 2

5

56 5

Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Average

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

NET Same/Better (3-5)

2.72

16

2.77

18

3.18

19

50 51 68

How do you expect the World economy to fare in the next 6 months?

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

3.36

20

78

Feb‘10%

3.17

22

71

May‘10%

Expectations for the World economy have maintained as in May.

Almost 1 in 3 believe the World economy will fare worse in the next 6 months.

But just under half still expect the World economy to improve.

3.13

25

71

Sept‘10%

(20)

Stability expected for job market...

.. but some foresee a worsening house market.

(21)

44 40 3735 32 37

37 38 3639 36 34

21 22 19 13 13 14 42 4028 21 21 21

15 15 15

7 712 12 14 13

2 2 22 1 2 2

11 12 1511

2 22

Much better (5)

Much worse (1)

Average

The Housing Market 6 months from now?

Job security 6 months from now?

2.29

Stay the same (3)

Slightly better (4)

Slightly worse (2)

1.85

20 11

2.32 1.89

23 14

2.43

26

2.24

20

NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 1937 2243 34

2.59

36

53

2.34

27

40

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

May‘09%

July‘09%

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

How do you expect the Housing and Job markets to fare in the next 6 months?

2.60

55

May‘10%

2.39

42

May‘10%

38 27

2.55

49

Sept‘10%

32

2.40

45

Sept‘10%

31

(22)

More positive spend patterns than May..

... but still remaining extremely cautious

(23)

63 6473

65 63 67 70 66 68 6574

67 62 6471 66

13 12 11 12 11 8 10 9 12 13 13 1220 16 14 17

19 1812

17 1916 12 17 16 16

9 1513 15

1013

4 64

6 57 6

7 3 44

53 5

34Already increased

Not likely to increase

Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or

socialisingGrocery spend

Consumer goods and services – e.g.

hairdresser, clothes, mobile

phone, gaming etc.

Holidays and short

breaks

Likely to increasein next 6 months

Likely to increasein next 12 months

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

Oct‘09%

Feb‘10%

Likelihood to increase spend in...

After a dip in May a return to positivity seen in February. However, 2 in 3 still holding tightly on purse strings

May‘10%

May‘10%

May‘10%

May‘10%

Sept‘10%

Sept‘10%

Sept‘10%

Sept‘10%

(24)

% Likely to increase spend in next 12 months

EntertainmentGrocery Spend

Consumer Goods/

Services

Holidays/ Shorter Breaks

Total 29 26 27 30

Gender

Male 29 24 26 29

Female 29 28 27 30

Age

18-34 42 34 38 37

35-44 29 27 24 28

45-64 20 20 20 22

65+ 15 13 17 24

Social Class

ABC1 33 26 28 33

C2DE 28 28 29 28

But, younger age groups and higher social classes are most likely to increase spend again...

(25)

Summary...• It is not as bad as we anticipated, with

less personal impact over the past year than originally feared.

• We feared the worst, but it hasn’t happened for most of us. However, 3 in 10 have still had a high personal Recession impact.

• There is high maintenance or improvement in quality of life, happiness, in energy for life and motivation.

• Demographically younger and older age groups claim higher levels of maintenance or improvement of quality of life.

(26)

Summary...• Regionally, Dubliners and those in

Urban areas have seen greatest improvement in quality of life, happiness, energy and motivation.

• Despite the past, consumers are still holding their breaths, as they expect the Irish Economy to worsen.

• This wave shows more positive spend patterns than May, but 2 in 3 still hold tightly on the purse strings and will not increase spend in the next 12 months

• Stability is expected in the job market but Irish consumers foresee a slightly worsening housing market.

(27)

Methodology – RED Express

• 1,000 telephone interviews (CATI) using a random digital sample to ensure coverage of all households, including ex-directory.

• Quotas were set and data weighted to ensure a national representative sample of the population aged 18+ years.

• This is the 9th wave of the credit crunch tracking – fieldwork was conducted 6th-8th September 2010.