The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk ™ 12 February 2010 Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China You can now follow us on Twitter please go to http://twitter.com/EbelingHefferna and join in. Kung hei fat choi (Happy New Year) Alert: Trading on the Hong Kong Gold Exchange is suspended ahead of Chinese New Year Trading on the Gold and Silver exchange in Hong Kong was suspended today ahead of the Chinese New Year of Tiger, which falls on Feb. 14, according to the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society. Trading will resume on February 17 after the public holiday. Red’s Bull Alert: US Stocks rose on Thursday on upbeat data from China that sparked mining and material stocks as a confirmation of last Friday's Key Reversal day in my opinion. Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the session ending 11 February 2010 + Red's Gold Report and Red's Crude Oil Report 1
Transcript
The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk ™
12 February 2010 Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China
You can now follow us on Twitter please go to http://twitter.com/EbelingHefferna and join in.
Kung hei fat choi (Happy New Year) Alert: Trading on the Hong Kong Gold Exchange is suspended ahead of Chinese New Year
Trading on the Gold and Silver exchange in Hong Kong was suspended today ahead of the Chinese New Year of Tiger, which falls on Feb. 14, according to the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society. Trading will resume on February 17 after the public holiday.
Red’s Bull Alert: US Stocks rose on Thursday on upbeat data from China that sparked mining and material stocks as a confirmation of last Friday's Key Reversal day in my opinion.
Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the session ending 11 February 2010 +
Red's Gold Report and Red's Crude Oil Report
After Thursday's action the S&P 500 is up 59.4% since bottoming on March 9, 2009
The DJIA rose 105.81 pts, or 1.05%, to close at 10,144.19, the S&P 500 surged 10.34 pts, or 0.97%, to close at 1,078.47, and the NAS tallied up a + 29.54 pts, or 1.38%, to end the session at 2,177.41.
China, the world's top base metals consumer, reported a jump in lending and slower inflation, suggesting the economy is on track for growth.
Caterpillar Inc, a big mining equipment maker, rose 5.6% to US$56.15 and provided the biggest boost to the DJIA. The S&P materials index rose 1.6%.
Shares of 3M Co, a diversified manufacturer, rose 2.1% to US$80.27 after Sanford C. Bernstein upgraded the company to "outperform" from "market-perform," citing better margins and a higher growth rate ahead.
It is now likely that investors worldwide have ID'd the major catalyst and are on the prowl for stocks that have been hammered over the past few weeks, as the sessions best performers were among
the market's worst performers during the past three weeks, i.e. technology, materials and energy sector issues.
Big cap tech showed real strength during the session helping the leading NAS book a better gain than the DJIA and S&P 500 .
Financials had outperformed in the previous session, but lagged this time around. Still, diversified bank stocks were able to trim collective losses of more than 1% to a more moderate 0.4% into the close.
Commodities had a strong session too, as the CRB Commodity Index closed with a 1.3% gain on a high for the week. Precious metals were strong closing 2.3% higher overall.
Players had little taste for Treasuries on the day owing for the most part to strength in equities.
Advancing Sectors: Materials (+1.6%), Energy (+1.6%), Industrials (+1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.1%), Tech (+1.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.5%), Telecom (+0.5%), Financials (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: (None)
Volume and Breadth: Trade was light on the NYSE, with about 1.08B/shrs changing hands, that below last year's estimated daily average of 2.18B/shrs, and on the NAS about 2.15B/shrs traded, well above last year's daily average of 1.63B/shrs. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 7 to 2, and on the NAS five stocks rose for each two that fell.
Stocks to Watch Today
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), United States Steel Corporation (X), and Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Red's Gold Report
Gold futures on the COMEX Division of the New York Merc soared Thursday on better jobless data, and the EU commitment to help Greece deal with its debt crisis, + Silver and Platinum followed Gold North.
The most active Gold contract for April delivery climbed US$18.40, or 1.7% to close at US$1,094.70 oz.
EU leaders offered Greece support; the 16 countries that use the Euro said they "will take determined and coordinated action, if needed, to safeguard financial stability in the euro as a whole." The statement did not mention money or loan guarantees.
The US jobs outlook boosted the gold market by encouraging investor's appetite for risk assets, including the all precious metals.
March Silver was up 29c to US$15.59 oz. and April Platinum rose US$6.40 to US$1,519.30 oz.
The Overall Technical Outlook: Comex Gold (GC)
2
Gold's consolidation from 1044.5 is in process, and another recovery cannot be ruled out, But I continue to expect the Northside to be limited below the 1126.4 resistance level, and then fall again, Should it fall below 1061.8, the minor support will flip intra-day bias back to the downside toward the 1044.5 low first. A break there will then target 1000 the next Key level.
The Big Picture: Gold made a medium term top at 1227.5 and the correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 the Key psychological level. However, I expect such correction to be contained there at around the 1000 Key level and bring on a resumption of the whole up trend from the 2008 low of 681. A break above the 1126.4 resistance level will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook Bullish for another high above 1227.5.
Note: should I see sustained trading below 1000 it will dampen my Bullish POV, and put the 931.3 Key structural support into view. ----Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Red's Crude Oil Report Crude Oil settles above US$75 bbl as prices rose for the 4th session running. Traders attribute the Northside action because the European leaders had reached an agreement Thursday that they are prepared to step in if needed to help Greece solve its debt issues. Though details will not be revealed until next week's EU financial ministers meeting, player's concerns were put at ease.
Further to that, the US posted a upbeat jobless report also helping to send Crude Oil higher. Investors are cautious ahead this week's inventory report, which be released today. Concerns over slowed demand dampened Crude Oil's gains.
Light, sweet Crude for March delivery rose 76c to settle at US$75.28 bbl on the New York Merc.
In London, Brent Crude added 51c to settle at US$73.05 bbl on the ICE Futures Exchange.
The Overall Technical Outlook: Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude Oil's choppy rise from 69.50 is still in process, and more upside cannot be ruled out. But there is no confirmation of reversal yet as long as the 78.04 resistance level holds. A move below 72.60, the minor support, suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and flip the intra-day bias back to the Southside for retesting this support first. However, break of 78.04 will augur that fall from 83.95 has finished, and will bring stronger rebound in its stead.
The Big Picture: the past break of medium term trend-line support added a lot of credibility to the case for reversal. The medium term rise from 33.2, treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next Key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58), and should I see a decisive break there it will suggest to me that decline from 147.27 is resuming and looking for a new low below 33.2.
On the Upside: a break of the 78.04 resistance is necessary to confirm that the fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, my outlook will remain Bearish for now.
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) Up-date 11 Last Look: January 5, 2010
February 12, 2010
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst
Today let’s look at “Big Blue”, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), the World’s #1 provider of computer products and computer services, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (February 11) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral mid-term Bearish and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bullish
Latest News and Opinion: Made in IBM Labs: IBM Sets World Record by Creating High-Efficiency Solar Cell Made from Earth-Abundant Materials Breakthrough holds potential to deliver more energy at a fraction of the cost http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Made-in-IBM-Labs-IBM-Sets-prnews-4269183071.html?x=0&.v=1
Thursday’s Market Action Close 123.73 + .92 Volume 5,089,200/shrs
There a Bullish Engulfing Candle on February 11, and no Gaps open up on the Chart, the near term resistance is 124.53, support at 123.51, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 126.01.
This is IBM (IBM): “Big Blue” is the world's top provider of computer products and services. IBM is a leader in every market in which it competes, the company makes mainframes and servers, storage systems, and peripherals. Though perhaps still best known for its hardware, IBM's growing services business now accounts for more than half of its sales. Its IT services arm is the largest in the world and the company is also one of the largest providers of software, ranking #2, behind Microsoft, and semiconductors.
The Competitive Landscape
Demand for IT services is driven by rapid technological advances, but spending for these expensive products depends on the health of the US economy. The profitability of companies in the industry depends on maintaining technical expertise and on good marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing in market niches or by partnering with larger companies that want to offer a broad array of services. Only the large companies can provide outsourcing services to big corporate customers. Average annual revenue per employee is close to US$200,000.
Information Technology Industry Forecast
The output of US computer and data processing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 6.1% between 2008 and 2013.
IBM (HQ)Chairman, President, and CEO Samuel J. PalmisanoNew Orchard Rd. Armonk, NY 10504United States Phone: 914-499-1900Toll Free: 800-426-4968
http://www.ibm.com
IBM Subsidiaries
Cognos ULCIBM Australia LimitedIBM Canada Ltd.
MGM Mirage (MGM) Up-date 10 Last Look: December 28, 2009
Today let’s look at MGM Mirage (MGM), one of the World's largest gaming firms, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (February 11) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bearish, and long term Neutral The recent Candle Stick Analysis is: Neutral
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Casino Winners: Wynn, Sands, MGM
There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on February 8, and one Gap open up on January 5, 2010 at 9.75/9.80, the near term resistance is 11.72, support at 11.15, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 10.97.
This is MGM MIRAGE (MGM): MGM Mirage through its subsidiaries owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company’s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2008, the company’s properties consisted of 17 wholly-owned casino resorts and 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts. It has a strategic alliance with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort under the MGM Grand brand name in Ledyard, Connecticut. The company, formerly known as MGM Grand, Inc., was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. MGM MIRAGE is a subsidiary of Tracinda Corporation.
Competitive Landscape
Growth in consumer income and state spending has driven expansion of the US gambling industry. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and effective marketing. Large operators have the financial resources to make large investments in facilities and efficient computer operations, and have cross-marketing opportunities. Small gambling facilities can thrive by catering to a local clientèle. The industry is fairly labor-intensive: annual revenue per employee is US$90,000.
Gambling Operations Industry ForecastUS personal consumption expenditures for participant amusements and pari-mutuel net receipts, which include gambling operations, are forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2009
MGM Mirage (HQ)
James J. Murren: Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President
3600 Las Vegas Boulevard SouthLas Vegas, NV 89109United States Phone: 702-693-7120Fax: 702-693-8626
http://www.mgm-mirage.com
United States Steel Corp. (X) Up-date 10 Last Look: January 26, 2010
Today let’s look at United States Steel Corporation (X), one of the world’s steelmaking leaders, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (February 11) market action is Neutral, in the near term Neutral mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish. The recent Candle Stick Analysis is;: Neutral
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest New and Opinion: Guidance Drives Down ArcelorMittal Stock
There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on February 8, and one Gap open up on November 11, 2009 at 38.56/38.73, the near term resistance is at 49.80, support at 45.03, and the 50 day exponential moving average is 50.27
This is United States Steel Corporation: Pittsburgh, PA based United States Steel is the US’s #2 integrated steelmaker behind Mittal Steel USA. US Steel operates mills throughout the US Mid-west, Ontario, Canada, and in Serbia and Slovakia. U.S. Steel produces sheet and semi-finished steel, tubular and plate steel, and tin products. Its customers are primarily in the automotive, construction, chemical and steel service center industries. Further, U.S. Steel offers services in mineral resource management, engineering and consulting. In 2007 the company acquired tubular goods maker Lone Star Technologies for US$2.1B and Stelco for US$1.1B. US Steel is ranked #146 in FORTUNE 500.
The Competitive LandscapeUnited States Steel's competition in the primary Metals Manufacturing sector is Mittal Steel USA. The industry is highly concentrated and the major companies control 90% of the market. The output of US primary ferrous and non-ferrous metals manufacturing is forecast to increase at an annual compounded rate of 4.4 % between 2008 and 2013.
United States Steel Corporation (HQ)
Chairman & CEO John P. Surma Jr.
EVP & COO John H. Goodish
600 Grant St. Pittsburgh, PA 15219-2800United States Phone: 412-433-1121Fax: 412-433-5733
http://www.ussteel.com
United States Steel Subsidiaries and Affiliates
Pro-Tec Coating CompanyTranstar, Inc. U.S. Steel Canada Inc
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Up-date 10 Last Look: January 28, 2010
Today let’s look at Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO), a leading global Internet brand, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (February 11) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral:, and long term Neutral. The Recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bullish
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Yahoo and Nectar team up on adverts
There is a Homing Pigeon on February 9, and no Gaps open up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is 15.55, support at 15.06, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 15.80.
This is Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO): Yahoo! Inc. is a leading global Internet brand and one of the most trafficked Internet destinations worldwide. Yahoo! is focused on powering its communities of users, advertisers, publishers, and developers by creating indispensable experiences built on trust. Yahoo! is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
The Competitive LandscapeDemand comes largely from corporations that sell consumer products, and telecommunications, entertainment, and financial services. The profitability of individual companies depends on creative skills and good marketing. Large companies are advantaged in being able to serve the varied needs of large customers, but small companies can be competitive through special talent or lower pricing or through special services. The industry is labor-intensive, but the high value of the product produces annual revenue per employee of about US$150,000.
Advertising and Marketing Industry Forecast
The output of US advertising services is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 5.5 % between 2008 and 2013.
Where Yahoo! Competes
Media
Internet Search & Navigation Services (primary)
Business ServicesAdvertising & MarketingTelecommunications ServicesData Services
Yahoo! Inc. (HQ)
Jerry Yang Co-Founder, Chief Yahoo and Exec. Director701 1st Ave.Sunnyvale, CA 94089 United States
www.yahoo.com
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