LONG-RANGE FORECASTINGFrom Crystal Ball to Computer

513

I

I

REFERENCES With Ratings andAnnotations

514 References

This section of the book contains the references from the first edition. To make room forthe new material in the book, however, it was necessary to prune the old references.The problem appears to be the same as that facing the pharaoh in the following cartoon:

f l\C')?f(\ \T

(((1. ?111)

/I NI11

(l'4)

"I'm afraid I'll have to lei some of you go The peopie are complaining aboutexcess prophets."

Source. iC> Omni Magazine, 1982. Reprinted with permission.

Of course, I did not trust to chance in pruning the list. Papers with empirical evidencerelevant to the conclusions in LRF stayed. Descriptive materials were dropped if morerecent descriptions did a better job. Some of the older materials were retained whenthey lent a historical perspective. In all, almost 700 references remain.

The items in the References are cross-indexed to the page in the text on which theyare cited at the end of each entry. They are identified by LRF XXX, the LRF standingfor Long-Range Forecasting and the Xs are the page numbers in the text. This is thesame procedure as used in the UPDATED BIBLIOGRAPHY and Glossary.

In the few cases where unpublished sources are cited, instructions are provided onhow to obtain a copy of the book or article. An attempt was also made to choose themost readable source when multiple sources were available. I have tried to indicatewhen books have been revised since the first edition.

The annotations tell something about the article beyond the description provided inthe text of this book. They were updated in the revised edition.

The ratings are global judgments by me and are based on the following criteria:

Is the article relevant and important to the study of forecasting methods? This is thekey factor. Some otherwise good articles are rated poorly with respect to this objective.Does the article provide new and convincing information? I am biased toward papersthat contain empirical results.Is the article well written? I have preferences for simplicity and for full disclosure.Does the article contain much information beyond the summary already provided inLRF?

References 515

Bo = BootstrappingEc = EconometricEx = ExtrapolationI = ImplementationJu = JudgmentalSg = SegmentationT = Testing modelsNR = Not relevant

Agr =Dem =Eco =Edu =Int =Fin =Med =Mkt =PerPoi =ProPsy =Sci =Soc =Tec =Tm n

WeaNR =

AgricultureDemographyEconomicsEducationInternational businessFinanceMedicineMarketingPersonnelPoliticsProductionPsychology or psychiatryScientific methodSociologyTechnologyTransportationWeatherNot relevant

These factors were used to develop a four-star system that may be interpreted as follows:

Outstanding! Scores well on all criteria above. This work should be of greatinterest to readers of LRF.

*** Very good. Is important in some respects.** Good. Contains something of value. However, the readers of LRF would find this

work of interest only in special cases.Marginal. Scores poorly on at least one of the four criteria or low on a number ofcriteria.Is of no value with respect to forecasting methods and was referenced on a sideissue.

In summary, the rating scheme provides information on the value of an item for furtherstudy of forecasting methods.

The right-hand column of each page contains coded information to help you locatestudies. There are three categories:

M What forecasting method was used?F What field was examined?E Does the study contain empirical evidence?

The code for E is Y for "yes" or N for "no." For papers designated as empirical, anindicates that the study used the method of multiple hypotheses (i.e., Ym designates anempirical study that tested two or more reasonable hypotheses). NR means that codingis not relevant. The codes for M and F are as shown here:

M (Method) F (Field)

=

=

==

5 16 References

M F E*

Abelson, Robert P., and Bernstein, Alex, "A Computer Simulation Sg Soc NModel of Community Referendum Controversies." Public OpinionQuarterly, 27 (1963), 93-122.Simulation of the fluoridation controversy. A "how-to-do-it"article, that, unfortunately, uses only artificial data. (LRF2501±

*** Adam, Everett, Jr., "Individual Item Forecasting Model Evaluation," Ex Pro YmDecision Sciences, 4 (1973), 458-470.Uses simulated data to compare seven types of extrapolationmodels. This study was replicated by McLEAVEY, LEE, andADAM 119811. Some corrections were made, but the basicconclusions held up. (LRF 171, 174, 494, 6261

,** Adams, F. Gerard, "Prediction with Consumer Attitudes: The Time Ju Ec NSeries-Cross Section Paradox," Review of Economics and Statistics,47 (1965), 367-378 (LRF 85)

** Akers, Donald S., and Irwin, Richard, "Demographic Projection Ex Dem YTechniques," in Joseph P. Martino and Thomas Oberbeck (Eds.),Long Range Forecasting Methodology. U.S. Government PrintingOffice, 1967 (LRF 159, 428)Al insky, Saul David, Rules for Radicals: A Practical Primer for I Pol NRealistic Radicals. New York: Random House, 1971 (LRF 38)Almon, Clopper, Buckler, M.B., Horwitz, L.M., and Reinbold, T.C., Sg Eco Y1985: Interindustry Forecasts of the American Economy. Lexington,Mass: Lexington Books, 1974.

Readable discussion of input-output analysis. No effort to val-idate the method. (LRF 265)Alonso, William, "Predicting Best with Imperfect Data," Journal Ex Dem Nof the American Institute of Planners, 34 (1968), 248-255. (LRF154, 459)Alpert, M., and Raiffa, H., "A Progress Report on the Training of Ju NR NRProbability Assessors." Unpublished paper, Harvard University,1968. Reprinted in KAHNEMAN, SLOVIC, and TVERSKY 119821,pp. 294-305. (LRF 143)

*** Ames, E., and Reiter, S., "Distributions of Correlation Coefficients Ec Eco Y

in Economic Time Series," Journal of the American Statistic& As-sociation, 56 (1961), 637-656.The authors found high correlations among randomly selectedseries from the Historical Statistics for the United States. Fora randomly selected series of 25 years, it was usually possibleto explain 50% of the variance by regressing the series againsttwo to six other randomly selected time series. (LRF 352)Amstutz, Arnold E., Computer Simulation of Competitive Market Sg Mkt YResponse. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1967. (LRF 263, 277)

*NI( Method ), F(Field), E(Empirical)

tRemember, LRF (xxx) indicates the pages in LRF that discuss this item. In this caseAbelson and Bernstein is discussed on page 250 and only that page.

209, 212, 214, 217, 220, 234, 235, 240, 328, 330, 373, 374, 409,

References

M F

517

E"

** Ando, Albert, and Kaufman, G.M., "Evaluation of an ad hoc Pro-cedure for Estimating Parameters of Some Linear Models," Reviewof Economics and Statistics, 48 (1966), 334-340. (LRF 341)

T NR N

Ansoff, H. Igor, and Slevin, Dennis P., "An Appreciation of In-dustrial Dynamics," Management Science, 14 (1968), 383-391.

Sg NR N

See reply in Forrester (1968b). (LRF 264)Archer, E.J., Bourne, L.E., and Brown, E.G., "Concept Identificationas a Function of Irrelevant Information and Instruction," Journalof Experimental Psychology, 49 (1955), 153-164. (LRF 379)

Ju Psy Y

"" Armstrong, J. Scott, "The Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Sg NR YmAnalysis" or "Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine,"American Statistician, 21 (December 1967), 17-21. (LRF 223)

. Armstrong, J. Scott, "Long Range Forecasting for a Consumer Du-roble in an International Market." Unpublished PhD Thesis, MIT,1968a.

EcExSg

Int Ym

This 266-page work contains the details for the study of theinternational camera market. (Copies are available from theDewey Library, Sloan School, MIT, 50 Memorial Drive, Cam-bridge, Mass. 02139.) (LRF 54, 162, 185, 197, 198, 203, 208,

411, 413, 414)* Armstrong, J. Scott, "Long Range Forecasting for International Mar-

kets: The Use of Causal Models," in Robert L. King (Ed.), Marketingand the New Science of Planning. Chicago: American Marketing

EcEx

Int Ym

Association, 19686, 222-227.Other than data and details, this paper contains little that isnot contained in LRF. (LRF 199, 235, 291, 292, 344)

*** Armstrong, J. Scott, "An Application of Econometric Models to Ec Int YmInternational Marketing," Journal of Marketing Research, 7 (1970a),

190-198. (LRF 234, 236)Armstrong, J. Scott, "How to Avoid Exploratory Research," Journalof Advertising Research, 10 (August 1970b), 27-30. (LRF 54, 352)

Ec NR Y

Armstrong, J. Scott, "Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Anal-ysis Machine: 1973," Psychologica/ Reports, 36 (1975a), 806. (LRF

Ec Edu Y

56, 341, 591)Armstrong, J. Scott, "Monetary Incentives in Moil Surveys," Public Ju NR YmOpinion Quarterly, 39 (Spring 1975b), 111-116.Analyzes the literature on effects of monetary incentives, andpredicts reduction of nonresponse in mail surveys as a func-tion of monetary incentives. (LRF 114, 181, 495)Armstrong, J. Scott, "Social irresponsibility in Management." Jour-nal of Business Research, 5 (1977), 185-213. (LRF 129)

Ju NR Ym

". Armstrong, J. Scott, "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folk-lore vs. Fact," Journal of Business, 51 (1978), 549-564 with (dis-cussion by six well-known econometricians on pp. 565-593 andmy reply on pp. 595-600). (LRF 433)

Ec Eco Ym

*' Armstrong, J. Scott, and Andress, James G., "Exploratory Analysis Sg Mkt Ym

*

*

**

518 References

M F E*

of Marketing Data: Trees vs. Regression." Journal of MarketingResearch, 7(1970), 487-492.A critique of this paper can be found in Douglas C. Crocker,"Comments on Exploratory Analysis of Marketing Data: Treesvs. Regression." My reply was entitled "Exploratory Analysisof Marketing Data: A Reply." Both are in the Journal ofMarketing Research, 8 ( 1971), 509-513 (LRF 413, 417)Armstrong, J. Scott, Denniston, W.B., and Gordon, M. M., "The Ju NR YmUse of the Decomposition Principle in Making Judgments," Or-ganizational Bahavior and Human Performance. 14 (1975),257-263.Answer to postcard contest erroneously given in billions ratherthan in millions. (LRF 58, 181)Armstrong, J. Scott, and Farley, John U., "A Note on the Use of Ex Mkt YmMarkov Chains," Management Science, 16 ( 1969), B281-8285.The authors' names were omitted . That was a serious mis-take! (LRF 159)

ink* Armstrong, J. Scott, and Grohman, Michael C., "A Comparative Ec Tm YmStudy of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting," Manage- Exment Science, 19 ( 1972), 211-221. (LRF 326, 343, 394, 397, 401, Ju405, 409, 455)Armstrong, J. Scott, and Overton, Terry S., "Brief vs. Comprehen- Ju Tm n Ymsive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase," Journalof Marketing Research, 8 (1971), 114-117. (LRF 101, 114, 370)Armstrong, J. Scott, and Overton, Terry S., "Estimating Nonre- Ju NR Ymsponse Bias in Moil Surveys," Journal of Marketing Research, 14(1977), 396-402.Uses judgment and extrapolation to predict how nonrespon-dents would respond. (LRF 95, 114, 340)Armstrong, J. Scott, and Shapiro, Alan C., "Analyzing Quantitative T NR NModels," Journal of Marketing, 38 (April 1974), 61-66 (LRF 305,307, 309, 311, 312, 314, 315, 316)

Or. Armstrong, J. Scott, and Soelberg, Peer, "On the Interpretation of Sg NR YFactor Analysis," Psychological Bulletin, 70 (1968), 361-364.Shows how "important factors" could be identified from ran-dom data if no attempt were made to assess reliability. Thensurveys empirical papers on factor analysis and finds thatabout two-thirds made no attempt to assess the reliability ofthe factors. Tobias and Carlson (1969) provide a useful cri-tique. (LRF 000)

** Asch, S.E., "Effects of Group Pressure upon the Modification and Ju Psy YDistortion of Judgments," in Harold Proshansky and Bernard Sei-denberg (Eds.), Basic Studies in Social Psychology, New York: Holt,Rinehart and Winston, 1965. (LRF 110, 544)

** Ash, J.C.K., and Smyth, D.J., Forecasting the United Kingdom Econ- Ec Eco Yorny. Farnborough, England: Saxon House, 1973. ExThis book examines short range forecasts by the National

References 519

F E*

Institute, London Business School, and other organizations.(LRF 161, 167, 409)

** Ayres, Robert U., Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Plan- NR Tec Nning. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969.Well-written, short, and interesting. (LRF 166)

Bailey, Robert, Radicals in Urban Politics: Th:. Alinsky Approach. I Pol NChicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974. (LRF 38)

*** Bakan, David, "The Test of Significance in Psychological Re- T Psy Nsearch," Psychological Bulletin, 66 (1966), 423-437.An interesting article on the value of tests of statistical sig-nificance. Moderately difficult reading, but worth the effort.Bakan's article was followed by R. LaForge, "Confidence In-tervals or Tests of Significance in Scientific Research?" andD.B. Peizer, "A Note on Directional Interference." Both ap-peared in Psychological Bulletin, 68 (1967), 466-468. (LRF356)Baker, Henry G., "Sales and Marketing Planning of the Edsel," in NR Mkt NMarketing's Role in Scientific Management, Chicago AmericanMarketing Assoc., June 1957, 128-144.This was written shortly before the Edsel was introduced.The benefits of marketing research were praised, and a de-scription was provided of the marketing research used in thedecision to introduce the Edsel. (LRF 144)Baker, J. Stannard, "A Framework for Assessment of Causes of NR NR NAutomobile Accidents," in P. Lazarsfeld and M. Rosenberg (Eds.),The Language of Social Research, Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1955.(LRF 74)

Bakwin, H., "Pseudodoxia Pediatrica," New England Journal of Ju Med YMedicine, 232 (1945), 691-697. (LRF 60)

** Bandeen, R.A., "Automobile Consumption, 1940, 1950," Econo- Ec Eco Ymetrica, 25 (1957), 239-248.Uses longitudinal data covering changes in auto sales by statein the United States. (LRF 209)Barber, Bernard, "Resistance by Scientists to Scientific Discovery," NR Sci NScience 134 (1961), 596-602. (LRF 433)

** Barclay, William D., "A Probability Model for Early Prediction of Ex Mkt YmNew Product Success," Journal of Marketing, 27 (January 1963),63-68.Describes a simple application of Markov chains. (LRF 160)Barnard, C.A., "New Methods of Quality Control," Journal of the Ex Tm YRoyal Statistical Society, Series A, 126 (1963), 255-258.The labels in Table 1 conflict with the text. The error is inthe text, I believe. (LRF 184, 520)Barrett, James P., "The Coefficient of DeterminationSome Lim- NR NR Nitations," American Statistician, 28 (February 1974), 19-20. (LRF350)

M

520 References

M F E*

Bass, Bernard M., and Leavitt, Harold J., "Experiments in Planning NR Psy Yand Operating," Management Science, 9 (1963), 574-585.

Reports on three laboratory experiments which showed a pos-itive relationship between participation in planning, on theone hand, and morale and productivity, on the other. (LRF36)Bassie, V. Lewis, "A Note on Scientific Method in Forecasting," in Ec Eco NBert G. Hickman (Ed.), Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior,Vol. 2. Studies in Income and Wealth No. 36, New York: ColumbiaUniversity Press, 1972, pp. 12/1-/218. (LRF 433)Bates, J.M., and Granger, C.W.J., "The Combination of Forecasts," Ex Eco YmOperational Research Quarterly, 20 (1969), 451-468.The authors compared and found small differences in accu-racy among various extrapolation methods, but combinationswere superior when based on methods that used differentinformation. Extends work from Barnard (1963). (LRF 183,186)

*** Batson, C. Daniel, "Rational Processing or Rationalization? The Ju Psy YEffect of Disconfirming Information on a Stated Religious Belief,"Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32 (1975), 176-184.(LRF 24, 383)Bell, Daniel, "The Myth of Crime Waves," in Daniel Bell (ed.) The NR NR NEnd of Ideology. Glencoe, Ill.: Free Press, 1962. (LRF 60)Bennett, Edith, "Discussion, Decision, Commitment, and Cansen- 1 Psy Ymsus in 'Group Decision," Human Relations, 8 (1955), 251-273.The process of decision making and the degree of group con-sensus were more important than reaching a decision or pub-lic commitment. (LRF 35,11DBennion, E.G., "The Cowles Commission's Simultaneous Equations Ec Eco NApproach: A Simplified Explanation," Review of Economics andStatistics, 34 (1952), 49-56.A good explanation of the simultaneous equations approach.Shows why the best "historical fit" does not necessarily pro-vide the best forecast. (LRF 129)

711 Berry, William L., and Bliemel, F.W., "Selecting Exponential Ex NR YSmoothing Constants: An Application of Pattern Search," in Pro-ceedings of the American Institute for Decision Sciences, 1972,pp. 503-510. (LRF 165)Berscheid, Ellen, et al., "Anticipating Informed Consent," Amen- Ju Psy Ymcan Psychologist, 7 (1973), 913-925.Presents descriptions of six previously published experiments(including Milgram's obedience study) to subjects and asksthem to "imagine that you are that typical subject . .. answerthese questions as if you had just participated in the exper-iments." Finds that people were less willing to participate instudies if there were no debriefing and if they might look badin the experiment. (LRF 127)Best, Roger J., "An Experiment in Delphi Estimation in Marketing Ju Mkt Ym

References 521

M F E*

Decision Making," Journal of Marketing Research, 11 (1974),448-452. (LRF 119)

Bezdek, Roger H., Empirical Tests of Input-Output Forecasts: Re- Sg Eco Ymview and Critique, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Eco-nomic Analysis, Staff Paper No. 24, July 1974.

This review of the empirical evidence on the use of input-output for ex ante forecasts covers 16 studies from seven na-tions from 1951 to 1972. (LRF 265)Binder, Arnold, "Statistical Theory," Annual Review of Psychology, NR Psy N15 (1964), 277-310.Discusses multiple comparisons and other topics. (LRF 329)Bird, M., and Ehrenberg, A.S.C., "Intentions-to-Buy and Claimed Ju Mkt YBrand Usage," Operational Research Quarterly, 17 (1966), 27-46.(LRF 81)

Blalock, Hubert M., Jr., "Correlated Independent Variables: The Ec Soc YProblem of Multicollinearity," Social Forces, 42 (1963), 233-237.(LRF 222)

Blalock, Hubert M., Jr., Causal Inferences in Nonexperimental NR NR NRResearch. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1964.

If you have struggled with the analysis of data, you will lovethis! Discusses how to use and interpret data. (LRF 75,205)Blalock, Hubert M., Jr., Social Statistics, New York: McGraw-Hill, NR NR NR1979. (LRF 220, 356)

** Bliemel, Friedhelm, W., "Theirs Forecast Accuracy Coefficient: A T NR NClarification," Journal of Marketing Research, 10 (1973), 444-446.(LRF 349)

.** Blurnberg, Paul, Industrial Democracy: The Sociology of Partici- I Pro Ympotion, New York: Schocken Books, 1968 (Revised 1978).

Dennis W. Organ reviewed this book in June 1974 (BusinessHorizons, p. 93-94), calling it the "best documented and mosteloquent case on record for democratization of the economicenterprise." It reviews the Hawthorne studies: There is no"Hawthorne effect." The results are explained by the desireto participate in things affecting one's life. (LRF 35)Blumen, Isadore, Kogan, M., and McCarthy, P.J., The Industrial Ex Per YMobility of Labor as a Probability Process. New York State Schoolof Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y.,1955.

Describes an early industrial application of Markov chains.No validation was attempted. (LRF 157)Borke, Helene, and Fiske, D.W., "Factors Influencing the Prediction Ju Psy Yof Behavior from a Diagnostic Interview," Journal of ConsultingPsychology, 21 (1957), 78-80.

Clinicians were able to make as accurate predictions aboutneurotic patients after reading a transcript of an interviewas they could after a face-to-face interview. (LRF 100)

tit Bowman, Edward H., "Consistency and Optimality in Managerial Bo Pro Ym

..

**

193-217.

522

M

References

F E*

Decision Making," Management Science, 9(1963), 310-321. (LRF279, 556)Box, George E., and Jenkins, G.M., Time Series Analysis Fore-casting and Control. San Francisco: Holden Day, 1970.

Ex NR N

This book is not my style. I would guess, however, that it isthe most frequently cited book on forecasting. Its impact hasbeen immense. Perhaps where there is smoke there is fire?(LRF 78, 174)Boyd, Harper, and Westfall, Ralph, "Interviewer Bias Once More Ju NA YRevisited," Journal of Marketing Research, 7 (1970) 249-253.(LRF 114, 205)Boyd, Harper, and Westfall, Ralph, Marketing Research. Home-wood, Ill.: Irwin, 1981.

NR NR NR

The discussion on methods of collecting data is especiallystrong. (LRF 113, 205)

* Bridgman, Percy W., The Logic of Modern Physics, New York: T Sci N

Macmillan, 1927. (LRF 65)Brooks, John Nixon, Business Adventures. New York: Weybrightand Talley, 1969.

NR Mkt N

A fascinating book, but out of print. (LRF 94, 551)Brown, LO., "Quantitative Market Analysis: Multiple Correlation,Accuracy of the Methods," Harvard Business Review, 16 (1937a),62-73. (LRF 235)

Ec Mkt Y

Brown, L. O., "Quantitative Market Analysis: Scope and Uses," Ec Mkt YHarvard Business Review, 15 (1937b), 233-244. (LRF 235)Brown, Rex V., "Just How Credible Are Your Market Estimates?," Ju Mkt N

Journal of Marketing, 33 (July 1969) 46-50.Good description and reasonable argument, but no validationof the procedure. (LRF 144)

Ar Brown, Robert G., "Less Risk in Inventory Estimates," Harvard Ex Pro N

Business Review, 37 (JulyAugust 1959a), 104-116.

I thought this was a good description of exponential smooth-ing, but the reaction from many of my students was that theaccount is incomplete. (LRF 166, 170, 171).Brown, Robert G., Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. New Ex Pro NRYork: McGraw-Hill, 1959b. (LRF 78, 161, 166, 170, 171)Brown, Robert G., Smoothing., Forecasting and Prediction of Dis-crete Time Series. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1963.

Ex Pro NR

Details on Brown's earlier works. (LRF 180, 347, 450)* Brown, T. Merritt, Specification and Uses of Econometric Models. Ec Eco N

New York: St. Martin's Press, 1970. (LRF 403)Bruner, J.S., and Potter, M.C., "Interference in Visual Recognition," Ju Psy YScience, 144 (1964), 424-425.

Once an uncertain situation has been perceived in a certainway, it is difficult to view it in any other way. (LRF 378)Brunswick, Egon, "Representative Design and Probabilistic Theoryin a Functional Psychology," Psychological Review, 62 (1955),

Ju Psy N

References 523

M F E*

Included only to give proper credit, this paper has a high fogindex. (LRF 381)Brush, Stephen G., 'The Prayer Test," American Scientist, 62 (1974), I NR N

561-563.Francis Galton studied the value of prayer. He found, forexample, that kings and queens, who are the objects of theirsubjects' prayers, die earlier than lawyers, gentry, and mil-itary officers; members of the clergy, presumably a prayerfulclass of men, live no longer than lawyers and physicians; theproportion of stillbirths suffered by praying and nonprayingparents appeared to be identical; and so on. People did notappreciate Galton's work in this area, and it does not appearthat the study has changed many attitudes since its comple-tion in the 1870s. (LRF 264,436)

** Buffa, Elwood S., and Taubert, William H., Production-/nventory Bo Pro YmSystems: Planning and Control. Hornewood, Irwin, 1972.

Contains a brief description ofJ.R.M. Gordon's work on boot-strapping on pp. 133-146. (LRF 280)Buffa, Frank P., "The Application of a Dynamic Forecasting Model Ex Pro Y

with Inventory Control Properties," Decision Sciences, 6 (1975),298-306.Compares a simple exponential smoothing model to an ex-ponential smoothing model with trend, seasonality, and anadaptive rule for alpha. The latter model provided better one-month-ahead ex ante forecasts, but the three changes wereconfounded. (LRF 388)Burch, S.W., and Stekler, H.O., "The Forecasting Accuracy of Con- Ju Eco Y

sumer Attitude Data," Journal of the American Statistical Associ-ation, 64 (1969), 1225-1233. (LRF 408)Burdick, Eugene, The 480. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1964. NR NR NRA novel. ILRF 76, 250)Burgess, Ernest W., Predicting Success or Failure in Marriage. New Ec Soc Y

York: Prentice-Hall, 1939. (LRF 218)Burk, Marguerite C., Consumption Economics: A Multidisciplinary Ec Eco Y

Approach. New York: Wiley, 1968.Econometric studies of food consumption. You might say itoffers a lot of thought for food. (LRF 202)Burns, Arthur F., and Mitchell, Wesley C., Measuring Business Ec Eco YCycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946.(LRF 53, 548)The popularity of their approach has lasted over the years.Busch, G.A., "Prudent-Manager Forecasting," Harvard Business Ju Mkt NReview, 39 (MayJune, 1961), 57-64. (LRF 126)

Cairncross, Alec, "Economic Forecasting," Economic Journal, 79 Ec Eco N

(1969), 797-812. (LRF 152)Campbell, Donald T., and Fiske, D.W., "Convergent and Discrim- T Psy Ninant Validation of the Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix," Psycholog-ical Bulletin, 56 ( 1959), 81-105.

Ill.:

**

524 References

F E*

This article is widely cited and has led to much follow-upresearch. (LRF 65)Campbell, John P., "Individual versus Group Problem Solving in Ju Psy Yman Industrial Sample," Journal of Applied Psychology, 52 (1968),205-210. (LRF 124)

** Connell, Charles, and Fowler, Floyd, "Comparison of a Self-Enu- Ju Med Ymmerative Procedure and a Personal Interview," Public OpinionQuarterly, 27 (1963), 250-264.Self-report was better for items where it was helpful for re-spondent to consult records in this survey on hospitalization.(LRF 116/Contra, Hadley, "The Prediction of Social Events," Journal of Ab- Ju Soc Ynormal and Social Psychology, 33 (1938), 364-389. (LRF 88)Carlson, John A., "Forecasting Errors and Business Cycles," Amer- Ju Eco Nicon Economic Review, 58 (1967), 462-481. (LRF 90)

** Carroll, John S., and Siegler, Robert S., "Strategies for the Use of Ju NR YmBase-rate Information," Organizational Behavior and Human Per-formance, 19 (1977), 392-402.People make greater use of base rate information when thereare small samples, exhaustive sampling of the population,and a population percentage that corresponds to a whole num-ber in the sample. (LRF 98)Carter, Phillip L., and Hamner, W.C., "Consistency and Bias in Bo Pro YmOrganizational Decision Making." Working paper obtained fromCarter at the Graduate School of Business Administration, Mich-igan State University, East Lansing Mich. 48823, approximately1972.

Uses same experiment as Moskowitz and Miller (1972). (LRF282)Carter, Reginald K., "Client's Resistance to Negative Findings and I NR Nthe Latent Conservative Function of Evaluation Studies," AmericanSociologist, 6 (May 1971), 118-124.Contains a good suggestion on fees for consultants who wantto bring about change: the larger the number and the greaterthe importance of the recommendations implemented by theorganization, the lower the consulting fee. (LRF 35)

*** Cartter, Allan M., "The Supply and Demand of College Teachers," Ec Edu YProceedings of the American Statistical Association: Social Statis-tics Section, 1965, 70-80. (LRF 203, 395, 397, 402)Corner, Allan M., Ph.D.s and the Academic Labor Market. New Ec Edu YYork: McGraw-Hill, 1976.

Predicted enrollment and hiring levels for 15 years. The early1980s were expected to be a bad time for Ph.D.sbig supplyand small demand. (LRF 202)Carver, Ronald P., "Speed Readers Don't Read, They Skim," Psy- NR NR NRchology Today, 6 (August 1972), 22 seq-30.Carver's paper is concerned about fallacious methods in theassessment of speed reading. In particular, the assessment of

M

References 525

M F E*

comprehension does not distinguish between what the personknew about the subject before reading and what the personknew after reading. Carver's article made some people mad.Richard G. Graf did a follow-up: "Speed Reading: Rememberthe Tortoise,"Psychology Today, 7 (December 1973), 112-113.His results supported Carver's. In Graf, the original speed ofthe speed reader trainees was much lower than that of thecontrol group. (LRF 336)Cetron, Marvin J., and Ralph, Christine A., Industrial Applications NR Tec NRof Technological Forecasting. New York: Wiley-lnterscience, 1971,Revised edition published by Robert E. Krieger, 1983, Naples,Florida.

Good quotations. Describes some of the "go words" used bytechnological forecasters. Disappointing collection of papers;a review by Tony Flowerdew in the Operational ResearchQuarterly, 24 (1973), 331, said that most of this book comesunder the heading "Technological Research Allocation Sys-tem Hassle," or its acronym. (LRF 322, 366)

*** Chamberlin, T.C., "The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses," NR Sci N

Science, 148 (1965), 754-759.This article was first published in Science in 189% was re-printed in 1897, 1931, 1944, and 1965, and is still relevantin 1978. See also Platt (1964). (LRF 437)Chambers, John C., Mullick, S., and Smith, D.D., An Executive's NR NR N

Guide to Forecasting. New York: Wiley, 1974.This book is based on a highly cited Harvard Business Reviewarticle. The conclusions were not based on empirical findings.I think that some of the conclusions are wrong. (LRF 72)

* Chan, Hung, and Hayya, Jack, "Spectral Analysis in Business Ex Mkt NForecasting," Decision Sciences, 7 (1976), 137-151. (LRF 180)Chapman, Loren J., and Chapman, J.P., "The Genesis of Popular Ju Psy Ymbut Erroneous Psychodiagnostic Observations," Journal of Abnor-mal Psychology, 72 (1967), 193-204.Uses the "draw-a-person" test. (LRF 372, 378, 380)

*** Chapman, Loren J., and Chapman, J.P., "Illusory Correlation as Ju Psy Yman Obstacle to the Use of Valid Psychodiagnostic Signs," Journalof Abnormal Psychology, 74 (1969), 271-280.People see what they expect to see, and this interferes withperceiving real relationships. Makes one question the valueof experience. (LRF 52, 378)

* Chatfield, C., and Prothero, DL., "Box-Jenkins Seasonal Fore- Ex Eco Ycosting Problems in a Case Study," Journal of the Royal StatisticalSociety: Series A, 136 (1973), 295-352.The 58 pages include discussions by other people at a confer-ence, as well as a reply by Box and Jenkins and then a replyto the Box-Jenkins' reply. The paper does not examine alter-native methods, but looks only at Box-Jenkins. The papersdemonstrate so much confusion that it makes one thing per-

526 References

M F E*

fectly clear: Box-Jenkins is not easy even for experts in Box-Jenkins methodology. (LRF 174, 175, 176, 494)

* Chein, Isidor, "The Logic of Prediction: Some Observations on Dr. Ec Psy NSarbin's Exposition," Psychological Review, 52 (1945), 175-179.An emotional outburst against the use of objective methods.(LRF 434)

** Chisholm, Roger K., and Whitaker, Gilbert R., Jr., Forecasting NR NR NMethods, Homewood, Ill.: Irwin, 1971.More concerned with measurement than with forecasting. (LRF72)

** Chow, Wen M., "Adaptive Control of the Exponential Smoothing Ex Pro YmConstant," Journal of Industrial Engineering, 16 (1965), 314-317.See GARDNER I 1983bl for an unsuccessful attempt to rep-licate these results. (LRF 171, 494, 609)

** Christ, Carl F., "A Test of an Econometric Model for the United Ec Eco YmStates, 1921-1947," in National Bureau for Economic Research,Conference on Business Cycles, New York, 1951, pp. 35-107 withdiscussion on pp. 107-129. See also Christ (1956). (LRF 388, 407,433)

** Christ, Carl F., "Aggregate Econometric Models," American Eco- Ec Eco Ymnomic Review, 46 (1956), 385-408.An extension of Christ (19511. (I,RF 526)Christ, Carl F., "Simultaneous Equation Estimation: Any Verdict Ec Eco YYet?" Econometrica, 28 (1960), 835-845. (LRF 200)Christ, Carl F., "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models Ec Eco Ymof the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, 16 (1975), Ex54-74. JuReviews forecasting performance for 1970-1973, using modelsdeveloped with 1953-1970 data. Examines both ex ante andex post forecasts. Subjectively adjusted forecasts improved ac-curacy for ex ante forecasts but made things worse for ex postforecasts. (LRF 397, 409)

*** Christal, RE., "Selecting a Haremand Other Applications of the Bo Per YPolicy-capturing Model," Journal of Experimental Education, 36(Summer 1968), 35-41.Claims that this approach has been used successfully in rep-resenting a number of different types of personnel decisions(promotions, job ratings, and grading of jobs). (LRF 284)Clarkson, Geoffrey, PE., Portfolio Selection. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Bo Fin YmPrentice-Hall, 1962 (LRF 277)

Cloudy, John G., "A Comparison of Five Variable Weighting Pro- Ec Psy Ymcedures," Educational and Psychological Measurement, 32 (1972),311-322.Claudy did studies on simulated data with sample sizes of 20,40, 80, and 160. He used unit weights, regression coefficients,and three other weighting schemes. (LRF 230)

References 527

M F E*

Clawson, J.S., "How Useful Are 90-Day Purchase Probabilities?," Ju Mkt YJournal of Marketing, 35 (October 1971), 43-47. (LRF 82)Claycamp, Henry J., and Liddy, LE., "Prediction of New Product Eo Mkt Y

Performance: An Analytical Approach," Journal of Marketing Re-search, 6 (1969), 414-420.No alternative model for comparison, and thus no demon-stration that the authors' model led to better forecasts. (LRF154)

** Coch, Lester, and French, John R.P., Jr., "Overcoming Resistance I Pro Ymto Change," Human Relations, 1(1948), 512-532.One of the earliest and best known of the participation stud-ies. (LRF 35)

Cohen, J., and Cohen, P., Applied Multiple Regression/Correlation Ec NR NRfor the Behavioral Sciences. New York: Wiley, 1975.The authors discuss many practical issues (e.g., what to doabout missing data). (LRF 220)

11, Cole, Rosanne, "Data Errors and Forecasting Accuracy," in Jacob Ec Eco Y

Mincer (Ed.), Economic Forecasts and Expectations Analyses ofForecasting Behavior and Performance, New York: National Bureauof Economic Research, 1969. (Distributed by Columbia UniversityPress.) (LRF 61)

Ir Colombotos, John, "Personal vs. Telephone Interviews: Effect on Ju Soc YmResponses," Public Health Reports, 84 (September 1969), 773-782.

The author found no differences between personal and tele-phone interviews on physicians' responses to political, profes-sional, and personal items. (LRF 115)

It Cook, Richard L., and Stewart, Thomas R., "A Comparison of Seven Bo NR YmMethods for Obtaining Subjective Descriptions of Judgmental Pol-icy," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13 (1975),31-45. Replicated successfully by SCHMITT 119781. (LRF 278,641)Cook, S.W., and Selltiz, C., "A Multiple-Indicator Approach to NR Psy NRAttitude Measurement," Psychological Bulletin, 62 (1964), 36-55.(LRF 65,212)Cooke, Jane K., "Clinicians' Decisions as a Basis for Deriving Ju Psy Y

Actuarial Formulae," Journal of Clinical Psychology, 23 (1967),232-233.Discussion is so brief that it is hard to understand. In anyevent, she concluded that a combined forecast for distinguish-ing between psychiatric and nonpsychiatric people was con-sistently superior to any single judge. (LRF 137)Cooke, W. Ernest, "Forecasts and Verifications in Western Aus- Ju Wea Ytralia," Monthly Weather Review, January 1906.I used the description of this study in Raiffa (1969). (LRF 141)

** Cooper, J. Phillip, and Nelson, Charles R., "The ex ante Prediction Ec Eco YmPerformance of the St. Louis and FRB-MIT-PENN Econometric Models Ex

528 References

M F E*

and Some Results on Composite Predictors," Journal of Money,Credit, and Banking, 7 (1975), 1-32.The authors used Box-Jenkins as a benchmark for accuracyin this study of one-quarter-ahead forecasts of macroeconomicvariables. (LRF 408)

*.* Cooper, Ronald L., "The Predictive Performance of Quarterly Econ- Ec Eco Ymometric Models of the United States," in Bert G. Hickman (Ed.), ExEconometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Vol. 2. Studies in Incomeand Wealth, No. 36. New York: Columbia University Press, 1972,pp. 813-926, with discussion on pp. 926-947.Long and detailed. Much work went into this study that com-pared an extrapolation model with seven different quarterlyeconometric models. The extrapolation was based on a regres-sion against the dependent variable for up to eight precedingquarters. Data from 1949 through 1960 were used for modeldevelopment, and forecasts were made for quarters from 1961through 1965. Of the eight forecasting models, the extrapo-lation model was most accurate for 18 of the 33 variablesbeing forecast. The discussants criticized this study, but clearlythe econometric models were not superior here. (LRF 408,433, 435)

** Copeland, Ronald M., and Marioni, R.J., "Executives' Forecasts of Ex Fin YmEarnings per Share versus Forecasts of Naive Models," Journal of JuBusiness, 45 (1972), 497-512. (LRF 87, 396)

Cornfield, J., "Statistical Relationships and Proof in Medicine," T Med NAmerican Statistician, 8 (December 1954), 19-21.Discussion on the smoking-cancer controversy. Good readingfor those who feel that "proof' of causation always dependson direct experimentation (also good reading for those whothink that the smoking-cancer issue is still undecided). It wasdecided long ago. (LRF 210)Cowan, Donald R.G., "Sales Analysis from the Management Ec Mkt YStandpoint," Journal of Business, 9 (1936), 52 seq. and 10 (1937),14 seq. (LRF 235)

Cowden, Dudley, J., "The Perils of Polynomials," Management Ex NR NScience, 9 (1963), 542-550.

Theoretical argument showing how the expected error in-creases with increased complexity in the model, with smallsamples, and with longer forecast horizons. (LRF 180)

*** Cowles, Alfred, "Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?" Econo- Ju Fin Ymmetrica, 1(1933), 309-324.The answer was "no," and this answer has been reinforced innumerous studies since 1933 such as Jensen (1968). (LRF 94)

**** Cowles, Alfred, "Stock Market Forecasting," Econometrica, 12 (1944), Ju Fin Ym206-214.Follow-up to Cowles (1933). (LRF 94)

References 529

** Cox, Garfield V., An Appraisal of American Business Forecasts, Ju Fin YmChicago: University of Chicago Press, 1930.Examines the ability of 11 different services in forecastingnational business conditions. (LRF 94)

*** Cragg, John G., and Malkiel, Burton G., "The Consensus and Ec Fin YmAccuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earn- Exings," Journal of Finance, 23 (March 1968), 67-84. (LRF 167, Ju395, 396, 397, 401)Cragg, John G., and Malkiel, Burton G., "Expectations and the Ec Fin YmStructure of Share Prices," American Economic Review, 60 (1970),601-617.Unsuccessful attempt to replicate Whitbeck and Kisor (1963).(LRF 167, 573)Crane, D.B., and Crotty, J.R., "A Two Stage Forecasting Model: Ec Pro YExponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression," Management ExScience, 13 (1967), 8501B507.I found this difficult to understand. (LRF 409)

** Cronbach, Lee J., and Meehl, Paul E., "Construct Validity in Psy- T Psy Nchological Tests," Psychological Bulletin, 52 (1955), 281-302.This article is widely cited.(LRF 65)

** Crow, Wayman J., "The Effect of Training upon Interpersonal Per- Ju Psy Yception," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 55 (1957),355-359.A training program increased the confidence and reduced theaccuracy of judges. (LRF 383)Crow, Wayman J., and Noel, Robert C., 'The Valid Use of Simu- Ju Pol Ymlotion Results," Mimeo, Western Behavioral Sciences Institute, 1150Silverdado Street, La Jolla, Calif. 92037 (June 1965). (LRF 128)

** Curtis, Ervin W., and Alf, Edward F., "Validity, Predictive Efficiency, T Per Nand Practical Significance of Selection Tests," Journal of AppliedPsychology, 53 (1969), 327-337. (LRF 352)

*** Curtis, R.F., and Jackson, E.F., "Multiple Indicators in Survey Re- Ju Soc Nsearch," American Journal of Sociology, 68 (1962), 195-204. (LRF65, 327)Cyert, Richard M., Davidson, H.J., and Thompson, G.L., "Estima- Ex Fin Ytion of the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts by Markov Chains,"Management Science, 8 (1962), 287-303.Good illustration but no evidence. (LRF 158, 275)Cyert, Richard M., and March, James G., A Behavioral Theory of NR NR NRthe Firm, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1963. (LRF 275)Cyert, Richard M., March, James G., and Starbuck, W.H., "Two Ju Mkt YExperiments on Bias and Conflict in Organizational Estimation," ProManagement Science, 7 (1961), 254-264. (LRF 126)

Dalkey, Norman C., "Delphi," in Joseph P. Martino and Thomas Ju NR YmOberbeck (Eds.), Long-Range Forecasting Methodology: 1967,Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. (LRF 123)

M F E"

*

**

*

**

530 References

M F E*

Dalkey, Norman C., "Analyses from o Group Opinion Study," Fu- Ju NR Ymtures, 1(1969), 541-551. (LRF 118, 605)

** Da!key, Norman C., Brown, B., and Cochran, S., "Use of Self- Ju NR YmRatings to Improve Group Estimates," Technological Forecasting,1 (1970), 283-291. (LRF 140)f Dalrymple, Douglas J., and Haines, George H., Jr., "A Study of Ec Mkt Ythe Predictive Ability of Market Period Demand-Supply Relationsfor a Firm Selling Fashion Products," Applied Economics, 1(1970),277-285.A comparative study of methods for short-range forecasts ofwomen's sportswear. No advantage found for log-log modelover linear model. (LRF 409)Daly, Rex F., "Long-Run Economic Projections: A Review and Ap- Ex Eco Npraisal," Agricultural Economics Research, 15 (October 1963),113-121. (LRF 183)Dancer, Robert, and Gray, Clifford, "An Empirical Evaluation of Ex Mkt YmConstant and Adoptive Computer Forecasting Models for InventoryControl," Decision Sciences, 8 (1977), 228-238.Short-range forecasts of 359 liquor products over a 28-monthperiod. No advantage for adaptive models. (LRF 171, 494)

111, Daniel C., and Heerema, N., "Design of Experiments for the Most Ec NR NPrecise Estimation of Linear Extrapolation," Journal of the Amer-ican Statistical Association, 45 (1950), 546-556. (LRF 206)Darroch, R.K., and Steiner, ID., "Role-Playing: An Alternative to Ju Soc YmLaboratory Research," Journal of Personality, 38 (1970), 302-311.(LRF 127)

Daub, Mervin, "On the Cost to the Firm of Aggregate Prediction NR NR YErrors," Journal of Business, 47 (1974), 11-22.Complex analysis to determine the value of perfect forecasts.(LRF 388)Davies, S.W., and Scott, T.W.K., "Forecasting Industrial Produc- Ec Pro Ymtion," National Institute Economic Review, No. 66 (November 1973), Ex54-68.Short-range ex post forecasts with small sample sizes. A fol-low-up study is published in No. 69 (1974), 27-28 (LRF 170)* Dawes, Robyn M., "A Case Study of Graduate Admissions: Ap- Bo Edu Ymplication of Three Principles of Human Decision Making," Amer- Juican Psychologist, 26 (1971), 180-188.

Good description of bootstrapping and a useful applicationthat should be adopted by universities. I originally predictedthat adoption would be slow. It has been. See DAWES119791.(LRF 281, 283, 638)

111 Dawes, Robyn M., and Corrigan, Bernard, "Linear Models in De- Bo NR Ymcision Making," Psychological Bulletin, 81 (1974), 95-106. EcInteresting tidbit is the description of Ben Franklin's "moralor prudential algebra": List pros and cons in separate col-umns, apply weights subjectively, then sum the columns. Ben'smethod is still a good one. (LRF 217, 230, 283)

*

*

References 531

M F E*

Dearborn, D.C., and Simon, HA., "Selective Perception: A Note NR NR NRon the Departmental Identification of Executives," Sociometry, 21(1958), 140-144. (LRF 72)De Grazia, Alfred, et al. (Eds.), The Velikovsky Affair. New York: NR Sci NUniversity Books, 1966.Fascinating description of the reactions to Immanuel Veli-kovsky. See especially the paper by Ralph E. Juergens. (LRF67, 433)Denton, Frank T., and Kuiper, John, ''The Effect of Measurement Ec Eco YErrors on Parameter Estimates and Forecasts: A Case Study Basedon the Canadian Preliminary National Accounts," Review of Eco-nomics and Statistics, 47 (1965), 198-206. (LRF 221)

*** Denton, Frank T., and Oksanen, EH., "A Multi-Country Analysis Ec Eco Ymof the Effects of Data Revisions on an Economic Model," Journalof the American Statistical Association, 67 (1972), 286-291. (LRF221)Dewey, Edward R., and Dakin, Edwin F., Cycles: The Science of Ex Eco YPrediction. New York: Holt, 1947. (LRF 179, 180)Domencich, Thomas A., and McFadden, Daniel, Urban Travel De- NR Tm n Ymand. New York: American Elsevier, 1975. (LRF 202)Doob, Anthony N., and Gross, A.E., "Status of Frustrator as an Ju Psy YInhibitor of Horn-Honking Responses," Journal of Social Psychol-ogy, 76 (1968), 213-218. (LRF 84)

*** Dorn, Harold F., "Pitfalls in Population Forecasts and Projections," Ex Dem NJournal of the American Statistical Association, 45 (1950), 311-334.Historical review of population forecasting. (LRF 88, 166,182)

*** Draper, Norman R., and Smith, H., Applied Regression Analysis. Ec NR NRNew York: Wiley, 1981.A good discussion of the practical problems one encounterswhen analyzing data, although the latest edition seems to becaught up in statistical sophistication. (LRF 220)

*** Dudycha, Linda W., and Naylor, J.C., "Characteristics of the Hu- Ju NR Yman Inference Process in Complex Choice Behavior Situations,"Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1 (1966),110-128. (LRF 101, 102, 379)

** Duncan, Otis Dudley, "Is the Intelligence of the General Popu- NR Soc Nlotion Declining?," American Sociological Review, 17 (1952),401-407. (LRF 322)Duncan, Otis Dudley, "Social Forecastingthe State of the Art," Ex Dem NPublic Interest, 17 (Fall 1969), 88-118. (LRF 322) Sg Soc

Duncan-Jones, Paul, "Causation, Path-Analysis and the Old Sau- Ec NR Nsage Machine,"Journal of the Market Research Society, 12 (1970),200-203. (LRF 75)Dunkelberg, William C., and Day, George S., "Nonresponse Bias Ju Fin Yand Callbacks in Sample Surveys,"Journal of Marketing Research,10 (1973), 160-168. (LRF 114)

** Dunnett, Charles W., "A Multiple Comparison Procedure for Com- T NR NR

532 References

M F E*

paring Several Treatments with a Control," Journal of the AmericanStatistical Association, SO (1955), 1096-1121. (LRF 465, 466)Dunnett, Charles W., "New Tables for Multiple Comparisons with T NR Ya Control," Biometrics, 20 (1964), 482-491. (LRF 462, 463, 464)

** Dunnette, Marvin D. Personnel Selection and Placement. Belmont, NR Per NRCalif.: Wadsworth, 1966. (LRF 388)

** Durbin, J., "A Note on Regression When There is Extraneous In- Ec NR Nformation about One of the Coefficients," Journal of the AmericanStatistical Association, 48 (1953), 799-808. (LRF 232)

Efron, Bradley, and Morris, Carl, "Stein's Paradox in Statistics," Ex NR YmScientific American, 236 (May 1977), 119-127. (LRF 155)

** Ehrenberg, A.S.C., "The Practical Alternative to Regression," Pro- Ec Med Yceedings of the American Statistical Association: Business and Eco-nomics Statistics Section, 1975, pp. 313-314.The obvious is not always obviousso papers like this areuseful. Suggests that one can generalize from similar situa-tions rather than developing a new model from scratch. (LRF203)

** Einhorn, Hillel J., "The Use of Nonlinear, Noncompensatory Models Ju Per Ymin Decision Making," Psychological Bulletin, 73 (1970), 221-230.A critique of this paper is provided by Goldberg (1971).(LRF538)Einhorn, Hillel J., "Expert Measurement and Mechanical Cornbi- Ju Med Ymnation," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 7(1972a), 86-106.Suggests a combination of judgement and objective methodswith the judge gathering the data and the statistician pro-cessing it. Examines decomposed vs. global judgments for threejudges predicting the life span of 193 people with Hodgkins'sdisease. (LRF 276)Einhorn, Hillel, J., "Alchemy in the Behavioral Sciences," Public Ec NR YmOpinion Quarterly, 36 (19726), 367-378. Sg

Discusses danger of proceeding without a theory when usingAID, regression, or factor analysis. (LRF 56, 255, 263, 340,415)Einhorn, Hillel J., and Hogarth, R.M., "Unit Weighting Schemes Ec NR Ymfor Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Per-formance, 13 (1975), 171-192. (LRF 231)

*** Elliott, J.W., "A Direct Comparison of Short-Run GNP Forecasting Ec Eco YmModels," Journal of Business, 46 (1973), 33-60. (LRF 228, 408) ExElton, Edwin J., and Gruber, Martin J., "Improved Forecasting through Ex Fin Ymthe Design of Homogeneous Groups," Journal of Business, 44 (1971), Sg432-450. (LRF 286)

f fr Elton, Edwin J., and Gruber, Martin J., "Earnings Estimates and Ex Fin Ymthe Accuracy of Expectational Data," Management Science, 18 Ju(1972), B409-8424. (LRF 169, 170, 174, 177, 494)

*

*

References 533

M F E*

* Encel, Soloman, Marstrand, Pauline K., and Page, William, The NR NR NArt of Anticipation. London: Martin Robertson, 1975.Planning is the major concern here, rather than forecasting.The discussion of cost-benefit analysis is interesting. (LRF19, 39)

** Erdos, Paul L., and Morgan, Arthur J., Professional Mail Surveys. Ju Mkt Y

Malabar, Florida: Robert E. Krieger, 1983. (LRF 114)

** Evans, Franklin B., "Psychological and Objective Factors in the Ec Mkt Y

Prediction of Brand Choice: Ford versus Chevrolet," Journal ofBusiness, 32 (1959), 340-369.A controversial article in marketing research. At least sixjournal articles analyzed this paper. This case provides aninteresting history of the evaluation of a research paper.

Steiner, Gary, "Notes on Franklin B. Evans"Psychologicaland Objective Factors in the Prediction of Brand Choice,'"Journal ofBusiness, 34 (1961), 57-60. Suggests that otherexplanations should have been considered; for example,the criterion variable was not reliable, and the psycholog-ical measure was not valid.Winick, Charles, "The Relationship among PersonalityNeeds, Objective Factors, and Brand Choice: A Re-Ex-amination," Journal ofBusiness, 34 (19611, 61-66. Pointsout data showing large year-to-year changes in perceptionsof Ford and Chevrolet. Also states that the psychologicaltest is not highly reliable, nor is variation expected to belarge.Evans, Franklin B., "Reply: You Still Can't Tell A FordOwner from a Chevrolet Owner," Journal ofBusiness, 34(1961), 67-73. Steiner misinterpreted Table 19, Evans says;its rank order data and differences were, in fact, small.Evans tried Winick's idea of using homogeneous modelyears and found no differences in results. Winick's critiqueof the reliability of the Edwards test was wrong.Kuehn, Alfred A., "Demonstration of a Relationship be-tween Psychological Factors and Brand Choice," JournalofBusiness, 36 (1963), 237-241. Points out errors by Evansin his plot of Figure 1. Analyzes two best variables andfinds a significant difference.Evans, Franklin B., and Harry V. Roberts, "Fords, Chev-rolets, and the Problem of Discrimination," Journal ofBusiness, 36 (1963), 237-241. Criticizes Kuehn for failingto allow for the fact that he chose the best two of the 11variables. Also, the plotting error by Evans made no dif-ference.Marcus, Alan S., "Obtaining Group Measures from Per-sonality Test Scores: Auto Brand Choice Predicted from

I

534 References

M F E*

the Edwards Personal Preference Schedule,"PsychologicalReports, 17 (1965), 523-531. Suggests use of a cross clas-sification rather than a linear model.

7 There were also attacks on Evans' work in the popularpress. For example, see Pierre Martineau, "Letter to theEditor," Advertising Age, Dec. 21,1959, p. 76. (LRF 302)

Evans, Michael K., "Econometric Models," in William F. Butler and Ec Eco NRobert A. Kavesh (Eds.), How Business Economists Forecast, Engle-wood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1974. (LRF 57, 200)

** Evans, Michael K., Haitovsky, Y., and Trey., G.I., "An Analysis of Ec Eco Ythe Forecasting Properties of U.S. Econometric Models," in Bert G.Hickman (Ed.), Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Vol. 2.Studies in Income and Wealth, No. 36, New York: Columbia Uni-versity Press, 1972, pp. 949-1139, with discussion on pp.1140-1158.This paper is based on an excellent idea; it has good raw data;the study design is fair; the interpretation of the results isimpressionistic, with hypotheses obtained after the data wereexamined; and the writing is difficult to follow. (LRF 237,241)Ezzati, Ali, "Forecasting Market Shares of Alternative Home-Heat- Ex Mkt Ying Units by Markov Process Using Transition, Probabilities Esti-mated from Aggregate Time Series Data," Management Science,21 (1974), 462-473.Forecasts the demand for oil burners, gas burners, and electricheaters for 1973-1984. No validation. (LRF 158)

Fair, Ray C., A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States. Ec Eco YmLexington, Mass.: Heath Lexington Books, 1971. Fair's work wasupdated in his book, Specification, Estimation, and Analysis ofMacroeconomic Models. Cambridge, Mass. Harvard University Press,1984. (LRF 228, 241)Fair, Ray C., "An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model," Ec Eco Ymin Lawrence R. Klein and Edwin Burmeister (Eds.), EconometricModel Performance, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press,1976. (LRF 241)Falthzik, Alfred M., "When to Make Telephone Interviews,"Journal Ju NR Yof Marketing Research, 9 (1972), 451-452.For surveys of the general population, response rates are higherif you call during the week (Monday through Thursday). Also,it is better to call in the morning, next best is the afternoon,and nights are worst. (Of course, it is cheaper to call at night.)(LRF 115)Farrell, M.J., "The Demand for Motor Cars in the United States," Ec Eco YJournal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 117 (1954), 171-193with discussion on pp. 194-201. (LRF 408)

References

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E*

** Fegley, Kenneth A., Armstrong, J. Scott, and Salisbury, James B.,"Analysis of Medical Forecasting Techniques," Mimeo: University

EcSg

Med Ym

City Science Center, October 1971.Compares simple vs. complex functional forms; also comparessegmentation and econometric methods. (Copies can be ob-tained from J. Scott Armstrong). (LRF 413, 415)

** Fels, Rendigs, and Hinshaw, C. Elton, "An Analysis of Turning T Eco NPoint Forecasts: A Fairly Polite Comment," American Economic Re-view, 64 (1974), 724-727.Although it really was not polite, it did summarize work doneon turning points while the authors criticized a paper by Stek-ler. Stekler replied politely on pp. 728-729 of this same issue.(LRF 353)

*** Ferber, Robert,"Are Correlations Any Guide to Predictive Value?" T Eco Y

Applied Statistics, S (June 1956), 113-122. (LRF 339)

*** Ferber, Robert, "The Reliability of Consumer Surveys of Financial Ju Fin YHoldings: Time Deposits," Journal of the American Statistical As-sociation, 60 (1965), 148-163. (LRF 329)

* Ferber, Robert, "Contributions of Economics to the Study of Con-sumer Market Behavior," Applied Economics, 1(1969), 125-136.

Ec Mkt N

(LRF 213)Ferber, Robert, Chen, N., and Zuwaylif, F., "Employers' Forecastsof Manpower: An Interview Study,"Journal of Business, 34 (1961),387-395. (LRF 142)

Ju Per Y

* Fernandez-Garza, Alberto, "A General Computer Model for Fore-casting the Demand Distribution with an Application to the Minicar

Sg Tm Y

System." Unpublished MBA Thesis, Wharton School: University ofPennsylvania, Philadelphia, 1969. (LRF 269)

*** Finley, James R., "Farm Practice Adoption: A Predictive Model," Sg Agr YmRural Sociology, 33 (1968), 5-18.A segmentation model reduced error by almost half in com-parison to a naive model. Good use of a priori analysis. (LRF254)

* Firestone, 0.J., in discussion of "Forecasting with Statistical In-dicators," Bert G. Hickman (Ed.), Econometric Models of Cyclical

NR Eco N

Behavior, New York: Columbia University Press, 1972, pp.

1189-1190. (LRF 379)

" Fischhoff, Baruch, "Hindsight # Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Ju Soc Y

Knowledge on Judgment under Certainty,"Journal of ExperimentalPsychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1 (1975),288-297.Finding out that an outcome had occurred increased its per-ceived likelihood as remembered by the judge. (LRF 39, 384)

*** Fischhoff, Baruch, and Beyth, Ruth, "I Knew It Would Happen: Ju Psy YRemembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things," OrganizationalBehavior and Human Performance, 13 (1975), 1-16. (LRF 39,384)

* Flesch, Rudolph, "Preparation of Effective Reports," in H.B. May- NR NR NR

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Flesch, Rudolph, "Preparation of Effective Reports," in H.B. May- NR NR NRnard (Ed.), Industrial Engineering Handbook. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1956, pp. 8-299-8-312. (LRF xii)

** Forehand, G.A., and McQuitty, L.L., "Configurations of Factor Sg Edu YStandings as Predictors of Educational Achievement," Educationaland Psychological Measurement, 19 (1959), 31-43. (LRF 413)Forrester, Jay W., "Industrial Dynarnicsafter the First Decade," Sg NR NManagement Science (Theory), 14 (1968a), 398-415. (LRF 263)Forrester, Jay W., "Industrial Dynamics: A Response to Ansoff and Sg NR NSlevin," Management Science (Theory), 14 (1968b), 601-618.(LRF 517)

Fox, Karl A., "Econometric Models of the United States," Journal Ec Eco Ymof Political Economy, 64 (1956), 128-142. (LRF 227)Francis, R.G., "The Relation of Data to Theory," Rural Sociology, T Soc N22 (1957), 258-266. (LRF 55)

** Frank, Ronald E., and Massy, W.F., "Innovation and Brand Choice: NR NR NThe Folger's Invasion," in Stephen A. Greyser (Ed.), Toward Sci-entific Marketing. Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1963.A study of the introduction of Folger's coffee into Chicago in1959. (LRF 340)

le** Frank, Ronald E., Massy, W.F., and Morrison, D.G., "Bias in Mul- Ec Mkt Ymtiple Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Marketing Research, 2 T(1965), 250-258. (LRF 340,341)Frankel, Lester R., "Are Survey Data Being Over-adjusted?" in Leo Sg NR NBogart (Ed.), Current Controversies in Marketing Research. Chi-cago: Markham, 1969. (LRF 478)Freedman, Jonathan L., "Role Playing: Psychology by Consensus," Ju Psy NJournal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13 (1969), 107-114.

Arguments against the validity of role playing. (LRF 128)French, John R.P., Key, E., and Meyer, H.H., "Participation and I Pro Ymthe Appraisal System," Human Relations, 19 (1966), 3-20.Managers who wrote out their own sets of goals were moresuccessful in making changes. (LRF 36)

** Friedman, Milton, "The Methodology of Positive Economics," Essays T Eco Nin Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953.(LRF 306,556)Friend, Irwin, and Jones, Robert C., "Short-Run Forecasting Models Ec Eco YIncorporating Anticipatory Data," in Models of income Determi-nation: Studies in Income and Wealth, No. 28. New York: NationalBureau of Economic Research, 1964, pp. 279-326.

Replies by L. Klein and F.T. Juster are included. (LRF 241)Friend, Irwin, and Taubman, P., "A Short-Term Forecasting Model," Ec Eco YReview of Economics and Statistics, 46(1964)229-236.229-236. (LRF 227)Friend, Irwin, and Thomas, William, "A Reevaluation of the Pre- Ec Eco Ymdictive Ability of Plant and Equipment Anticipations," Journal ofthe American Statistical Association, 65 (1970), 510-519.Anticipations data improve short-range predictive ability. (LRF81)

*

References

M F

537

E*

* Fromm, Gary, and Klein, L.R., "A Comparison of Eleven Econometric Ec Eco YmModels of the United States," American Economic Review, 63 (1973),385-393.Not much difference was found among models in their abilityto provide quarterly forecasts. (LRF 228)

Gallup, George H., The Sophisticated Poll Watcher's Guide. Ju Pol NPrinceton, N.J.: Princeton Opinion Press, 1976. (LRF 115,129)Geller, E. Scott, and Pit., G.F., "Confidence and Decision Speedin the Revision of Opinion," Organizational Behavior and Human

Ju NR Ym

Performance, 3 (1968), 190-201.Although disconfirming evidence did not lead to a reductionin confidence in the old belief, it did decrease the speed withwhich decisions were made. This study was done with red andwhite poker chips. (LRF 52, 383, 437)Gerstenfeld, Arthur, 'Technological Forecasting," Journal of Busi-ness, 44 (1971), 10-18.

NR NR Y

The author, the founder of Gerstenfeld's law of trying, madea survey of 425 firms in Fortune's 500 (and got 162 returns)about long-range planning methods. (LRF 117)

*** Geurts, Michael D., and Ibrahim, I.B., "Comparing the Box-Jenkins Ex Tm YmApproach with the Exponentially Smoothed Forecasting Model Ap-plication to Hawaii Tourists," Journal of Marketing Research, 12(1975), 182-188. (LRF 176,177,494)Gilchrist, Warren, Statistical Forecasting. London: Wiley, 1976. NR NR NPurely descriptive with a preference for statistical formulae.Draws generalizations but does not present evidence to sup-port them. Chapter 9 (pp. 150-161) provides a decent treat-ment of growth curves. (LRF 181, 609)Gillo, Martin W., and Shelly, Maynard, "Predictive Modelling of Sg NR NMultivariable and Multivariate Data," Journal of the AmericanStatistical Association, 69 (1974), 646-653. (LRF 262)Glahn, Harry R., "Objective Weather Forecasting by Statistical Ec Wea NMethods," The Statistician, 15 ( 1965), 111-142. (LRF 425) Ex

*** Glaser, Daniel, "A Reconsideration of Some Parole Prediction Fac-tors," American Sociological Review, 19 (1954), 335-340.

Ec Soc Y

This paper, which examines about 30 years of research effortin forecasting success on parole, suggests that theory shouldprecede the development of a predictive model. (LRF 198)

*" Glasser, Gerald J., and Metzger, Gale D., "Random-Digit Dialingas a Method of Telephone Sampling," Journal of Marketing Re-search, 9 (1972), 59-64.

Ju NR Y

Shows how to reach unlisted telephone numbers. Useful ar-ticle, but a nasty business. (LRF 114)

** Glasser, Gerald J., and Metzger, Gale D., "National Estimates of Ju NR YNonlisted Telephone Households and Their Characteristics," Jour-nal of Marketing Research, 12 (1975), 359-361.

**

I

538 References

M F E*

This paper describes the characteristics of people with un-listed numbers. (LRF 114)Glueck, Sheldon, and Glueck, Eleanor, Predicting Delinquency Ec Soc Yand Crime. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1959.(LRF 218)

r.* Gold, Jack A., "Testing Test Market Predictions," Journal of Mar- Ex Mkt Ymketing Research, 1 (August 1964), 8-11.See also the comments by Edwin Berdy and by Victor Cole,which appear with a reply by Gold in Journal of Marketing,2(1965), 196-200. (LRF 157)

Goldberg, Lewis R., "The Effectiveness of Clinicians' Judgements: Ju Med YThe Diagnosis of Organic Brain Damage from the Bender-GestaltTest," Journal of Consulting Psychology, 23 (1959), 25-33.Experts were no better than novices on diagnosis. There wasno relationship between an individual's accuracy and his con-fidence. A suggestive finding was that expertise derived fromempirical studies did lead to greater accuracy; unfortunately,there was only one expert who had achieved his expertise viaempirical studies. (LRF 382)Goldberg, Lewis R., "Diagnosticians vs. Diagnostic Signs: The Ec Psy YmDiagnosis of Psychosis vs. Neurosis from MMPI," Psychological JuMonographs, No. 79 (1965). (LRF 93, 137, 413, 414) SgGoldberg, Lewis R., "Simple Models or Simple Processes? Some Ju NR NResearch on Clinical Judgments," American Psychologist, 23(1968a), 483-496. (LRF 100, 278, 573)Goldberg, Lewis R., "Seer over Sign: The First 'Good' Example?" Bo FinJournal of Experimental Research in Personality, 3 (1968b), 168-171. JuA critique of Lindzey (1965). (LRF 393, 550)Goldberg, Lewis R., "Man versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Bo Psy YmSome Evidence for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inferences," JuPsychological Bulletin, 73 (1970), 422-432. (LRF 137, 281, 283)Goldberg, Lewis R., "Five Models of Clinical Judgment: An Em- Ec Psy Ympirical Comparison Between Linear and Nonlinear Representationsof the Human Inference Process," Organizational Behavior andHuman Performance, 6 (1971), 458-479.Critique of Einhorn (1970). The linear model proved betterthan the conjunctive and disjunctive models in representingpredictions by 29 clinicians as to psychotic vs. neurotic pa-tients. (LRF 278, 532)Goldberg, Lewis R., "Man versus Model of Man: Just How Con- Bo Fin Ymflicting Is That Evidence?" Organizational Behavior and Human JuPerformance, 16 ( 1976), 13-22.A reanalysis of Libby (1976a) revealed that his study was apositive finding for bootstrapping. See Libby's (1976b) replyto Goldberg. (LRF 283, 550)Goldhamer, Herbert, and Speier, Hans, "Some Observations on Ju Pol NPolitical Gaming," World Politics, 12 (October 1959), 71-83. (LRF126)

*Ym

References 539

M F E*

Goldman, Alfred E., "The Group Depth Interview," Journal of Mar- Ju Mkt N

keting, 26 (July 1962), 61-68. (LRF 124)111. Gordon, Kate, "Group Judgments in the Field of Lifted Weights," Ju NR Ym

Journal of Experimental Psychology, 7(1924), 398-400. (LRF 135,589)Goreux, L., "Long-Range Projections of Food Consumption," Monthly Ec Agr YBulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, 6 (June 1957),1-18. (LRF 212)

* Gough, H.G., "Clinical versus Statistical Prediction in Psychol- Ju Psy N

ogy," in Leo J. Postman (ed.), Psychology in the Making, NewYork: Knopf, 1962, pp. 526-584. (LRF 218, 372, 393)

fe Graham, John R., "Feedback and Accuracy of Predictions of Hos- Ju Med Ympitalization from the MMPI," Journal of Clinical Psychology, 27(1971), 243-245. (LRF 380)

* Granger, Clive W.J., and Morgenstern, Oskar, Predictability of NR Fin YStock Market Prices. Lexington, Mass.: Heath Lexington Books,1970. (LRF 94)

*** Granger, Clive W.J., and Newbold, P., "Economic Forecasting: The Ec Eco YmAtheist's Viewpoint," in G.A. Rentan (Ed.), Modelling the Economy, Ex

London: Heinemann, 1974.The authors examined 50 monthly macroeconomic time seriesand made forecasts for one to eight months in the future. TheBox-Jenkins model performed well. (LRF 175, 290, 408, 557)

te Grant, Donald L., and Bray, Douglas W., "Validation of Employ- Ec Per Ymment Test for Telephone Company Installation and Repair Occu-pations," Journal of Applied Psychology, 54 (1970), 7-15.Regression weights slightly better than unit weights on crossvalidation; the original sample size was 430. (LRF 229, 230)Grebstein, Lawrence C., "Relative Accuracy of Actuarial Predic- Ju Psy Ymtion, Experienced Clinicians, and Graduate Students in a ClinicalJudgment Task," Journal of Consulting Psychology, 27 (1963),127-132.Professional experience was not related to accuracy in pre-diction. (LRF 93)Green, David, Jr., and Segall, J., "The Predictive Power of First- Ex Fin YmQuarter Earnings Reports: A Replication," Journal of Accounting JuResearch, 4, Suppl. (1966), 21-36.Interestingly enough, this is a follow-up of the authors' 1967paper. (LRF 397, 398)Green, David, Jr., and Seagall, J., "The Predictive Power of First Ex Fin YmQuarter Earnings Reports," Journal of Business, 40 (1967), 44-55. Ju(LRF 397, 398)

le Green, Paul E., and Tull, Donald S., Research for Marketing De- NR Mkt NRcisions. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1978.Chapter on scaling is good. (LRF 106, 220)

Ir Greenberg, Martin S., "Role Playing: An Alternative to Deception," Ju Psy YmJournal of Personality and Social Psychology, 7 (1967), 152-157.(LRF 127)

125)

540

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Greenwald, Anthony G., "Consequences of Prejudice against the T Psy YNull Hypothesis," Psychological Bulletin, 82 (1975), 1-20. (LRF

436)** Greist, John H., et al., "A Computer Interview for Suicide Risk Ju Psy Y

Prediction," American Journal of Psychiatry, 130(1973), 1327-1332.(LRF 113)

Grigg, Austin E., "Experience of Clinicians, and of Speech Char-acteristics and Statements of Clients as Variables in Clinical

Ju Psy Ym

Judgement,"Journal of Consulting Psychology, 22 (1958), 315-319.(LRF 93, 101)

** Groff, Gene K., "Empirical Comparison of Models for Short Range Ex Mkt YmForecasting," Management Science, 20 (1973), 22-31. (LRF 164,170, 176, 494)Guetzkow, Harold S., Kotler, Philip, and Schultz, Randall L., Sim-ulation in Social and Administrative Science. Engelwood Cliffs,N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972. (LRF 263)

Sg Soc NR

Guilford, Joy P., Fundamental Statistics in Psychology and Edu-cation. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1965. (LRF 228)

NR NR NR

Gunning, Robert, The Technique of Clear Writing. New York: NR NR NRMcGraw-Hill, 1959. (LRF xiii)Gustafson, David H., Shukla, R.K., Delbecq, A., and Walster, G.W.,"A Comparative Study of Differences in Subjective Likelihood Es-timates Made by Individuals, Interacting Groups, Delphi Groups,and Nominal Groups," Organizational Behavior and Human Per-formance, 9 (1973), 280-291. (LRF 119, 123)

Ju NR Ym

Hocke, James E., Jr., The Feasibility of Anticipating Economicand Social Consequences of a Major Technological Innovation,Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, Calif., October 1967. (LRF

Ex Tec Y

19)

Hahn, Gerald J., and Shapiro, Samuel S., Statistical Models in NR NR NREngineering. New York: Wiley, 1967. (LRF 459)

" Haire, Mason, "Projective Techniques in Marketing Research," Ju Mkt YJournal of Marketing, 14 (1950), 649-652. (LRF 107)

** Haitovsky, Yoel, "A Note on the Maximization of le," American T NR NStatistician, 23 (February 1969), 20-21. (LRF 487)Haitovsky, Yoel, Trey., G., and Su, V., Forecasts with Ouarterly Ec Eco YMacroeconomic Models. New York: Columbia University Press, 1974,pp. 3-22. (LRF 397)

. Hajnal, John, "The Prospects for Population Forecasts," Journal ofthe American Statistical Association, 50 (1955), 309-327.

Ex Dem N

Notes that demographers' lack of success in forecasting hadnot led to any decrease in demand for their services. (LRF182)Halberstam, David, The Best and the Brightest. London: Barrie and Ju Pol NJenkins, 1973.The Vietnam war game is described on pp. 558-560. (LRF

**

*

*

**

References 541

M F E*

** Hall, Ernest Jay, "Decisions, Decisions, Decisions," Psychology Ju Psy YmToday, 5 (November 1971), 51 seq.Examined the value of group background (established vs. adhoc groups) and group process (trained vs. untrained). Theresults are only partially presented. (LRF 122, 482, 501)Hall, Ernest J., Mouton, J.S., and Blake, R.R., "Group Problem- Ju Psy Y

Solving Effectiveness under Conditions of Pooling vs. Interaction,"Journal of Social Psychology, 59 (1963), 147-157.Contains a better description of the work referred to in Hall(1971). (LRF 122, 372, 605)

* Hamilton, V. Lee, "Role Play and Deception: A Re-Examination of Ju Psy Nthe Controversy," Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior, 6(1976), 233-250. (LRF 128)

** Hammond, Kenneth R., Summers, DA., and Deane, D.H., "Neg- Ju Psy Ymative Effects of Outcorne-Feedback in Multiple-Cue ProbabilityLearning," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9(1973), 30-34. (LRF 380)

** Hample, Dale J., and Hilpert, Fred P., Jr., "A Symmetry Effect in Ju NR YmDelphi Feedback." Paper presented at the International Commu-nication Association Convention, Chicago, 1975. (Copies avail-able from the authors. Department of Speech Communication, Uni-versity of Illinois, Urbana, Ill. 61801.)Slight tendency was found for movement toward accuracy insubsequent rounds of Delphi. This increased accuracy oc-curred when the shift was toward the skewed end of the dis-tribution. (LRF 118, 119)

** Harberger, Arnold C. (Ed.), The Demand for Durable Goods. Chi- Ec Eco Y

cago: University of Chicago Press, 1960.A collection of empirical studies based primarily on econo-metric analysis using time series. The stress is on measure-ment, and little consideration was given to forecasting. (LRF202

** Harris, Douglas, "Predicting Consumer Reaction to Product De- Ju Mkt Ysigns," Journal of Advertising Research, 4 (June 1964), 34-37.Harris asked people to act as potential consumers in ratingchina and other dinnerware. This study tested concurrentvalidity. (LRF 155)Harris, J.G., Jr., "Judgmental versus Mathematical Prediction: An Ex Soc YmInvestigation by Analogy of the Clinical vs. Statistical Contro- Juversy," Behavioral Science, 8 ( 1963), 324-335.

Criticizes Holt (1958) as a study of data fitting rather thanof prediction. Harris also presents his study of forecastingfootball scores, which compares extrapolation and judgementmethods. (LRF 55, 273)

*** Harris, Ronald J., and Adorn, Everette E., Jr., "Forecasting Patient Ex Mkt YmTray Census for Hospital Food Service," Health Services Research, JuWinter (1975), 384-393.

**

542 References

M F E*

Compares extrapolation methods with intuitive forecasts. (LRF171, 397, 400)Harrison, Pi., and Davies, 0.1., "The Use of Cumulative Sum Ex Mkt Y(CUSUM) Techniques for the Control of Routine Forecasts of Prod-uct Demand," Operations Research, 12 (1964), 325-333.Good idea, but nearly incomprehensible. I think that infor-mation must have been left out of the explanation. (LRF 171)Harrison, Pi., and Pearce, S.F., 'The Use of Trend Curves as an Ex Mkt NAid to Market Forecasting," Industrial Marketing Management, 1(January 1972), 149-170. (LRF 181)

** Hartsough, W. Ross, "Illusory Correlation and Mediated Associ- Ju NR Yation: A Finding," Canadian Journal of Behavioral Science, 7 (1975),151-154.Study using colors paired with words. People see what theyexpect to see. (LRF 378)Hauck, Mathew, and Cox, Michael, "Locating a Sample by Random Ju Soc YDigit Dialing," Public Opinion Quarterly, 38 (1974), 253-260.The authors found it difficult to obtain household demo-graphic information with random digit dialing (35% refusals).(LRF 115)

Hauser, Philip M., Social Statistics in Use. New York: Russell Sage, NR NR NR1975. (LRF 96, 469)Hayden, Spencer, "How Industry Is Using Technological Fore- NR NR Ycasting," Management Review, 59 (May 1970), 4-15. (LRF 117)Hayes, S.P., Jr., "The Predictive Ability of Voters,"Journal of Social Jo Pol YPsychology, 7 (1936); 183-191. (LRF 86)Hedlund, James W., Sletten, Ivan W., Altman, Harold, and Even- Ec Psy Yson, R.C., "Prediction of Patients Who Are Dangerous to Others," TJournal of Clinical Psychology, 29 (1973), 443-444. (LRF 59,354)Heeler, Roger M., Kearney, Mi., and Mehaffey, B.J., "Modeling Bo Mkt YSupermarket Product Selection," Journal of Marketing Research,10 (1973), 34-37. (LRF 278)Heilbroner, Robert L., In the Name of Profit. Garden City, N.Y.: NR NR NRDoubleday, 1972. (LRF 289)Hermann, Charles F., and Hermann, MG., "An Attempt to Simulate Ju Pol Ythe Outbreak of World War I," American Political Science Review,61 (1967), 400-416. (LRF 126)Hertz, David B., "Risk Analysis in Capital Investment," Harvard Ju Fin NBusiness Review, 42 (1964), 95-106. (LRF 102, 269)Higgins, J.V., Reed, E.W., and Reed, S.C., "Intelligence and Family NR Soc YmSize: A Paradox Resolved," Eugenics Quarterly, 9(1962), 84-90.(LRF 322)Hiler, E. Wesley, and Nesvig, David, "An Evaluation of Criteria Ju Psy YmUsed by Clinicians to infer Pathology from Figure Drawings," Jour-no/ of Consulting Psychology, 29 (1965), 520-529. (LRF 93, 379)Hirsch, Albert A., and Lovell, Michael C., Sales Anticipations and Ec Eco YInventory Behavior. New York: Wiley, 1969.

References 543

M F E*

Assumes too much on the part of the reader. Makes strangecomparisons (e.g., the accuracy of three-month sales forecastsfor firms was judged in comparison with the accuracy of 12-month forecasts of the national economy.) (LRF 396)

* Hirschfeld, W.J., "A Comparison of Regression with Time Series- Ex Med YmExponential Smoothing Predictions of Craniofacial Growth," Growth,34 (1970), 431-435. (LRF 177)

** Hochstim, Joseph R., "A Critical Comparison of Three Strategies Ju Med Yof Collecting Data from Households," Journal of the AmericanStatistical Association, 62 (1967), 976-989.Mail, telephone, and personal interviews used. (LRF 115)Hofling, Charles K., Brotzman, E., Dalrymple, S., Graves, N., and Ju Med Y

Pierce, C.M., "An Experimental Study in Nurse-Physician Rela-tionships," Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 143 (1966),171-180.Excellent study but the authors infer too much from theirdata. This study was replicated by Steven G. Rank and Car-dell K. Jacobson, "Hospital Nurses Compliance with Medi-cation Overdose Orders: A Failure to Replicate," Journal ofHealth and Social Behavior, 18 (1977), 188-193. Two impor-tant changes were made in the replication: the nurses werefamiliar with the drug, and they were able to obtain peergroup support for their refusal to obey. Still, half of the nurseswere prepared to follow orders if the doctor insisted. (LRF112,155)Hogan, Warren P., "Technical Progress and Production Functions," Ec Eco YReview of Economics and Statistics, 40 (1958), 407-411.Critique of Solow (1957), followed by Solow's reply on pp.411-413. (LRF 54)

** Holloman, Charles R. and Hendrick, Hal W., "Adequacy of Group .1u Psy YmDecisions as a Function of the Decision-Making Process," Acad-emy of Management Journal, 15 (1972), 175-184.Compares six ways to have a group make predictions of thebehavior of the jurors in the movie Twelve Angry Men. Aconsensus after a majority vote was most accurate, consensusalone was second best, and majority vote third; averaged pre-diction, leader prediction, and committee prediction all didpoorer. (LRF 123)Holmes, David S., and Bennett, David H., "Experiments to Answer Ju Psy YmQuestions Raised by the Use of Deception in Psychological Re-search," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 29 (1974),358-367.Subjects were told they would be given a painful electric shock.Other subjects were asked to role-play that they would receivethe shock. Both groups of subjects gave similar responsesabout how they felt (e.g., calm, tense), but the role-play sub-jects did not show the same physiological changes. (LRF 127)

I

544 References

M F E*

Irt Holt, Robert R., "Clinical and Statistical Prediction: A Reformula- Ec Psy Ntion and Some New Data," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psy- Juchology, 56 (1958), 1-12. (LRF 541)Holt, Robert R., "Yet Another Look at Clinical and Statistical Pre- Ec Psy Ndiction," or, "Is Clinical Psychology Worthwhile?" American Psy- Juchologist, 25 (1970), 337-349. (LRF 393)Holtzman, W.H., and Sells, S.B., "Prediction of Flying Success by Ju Edu YClinical Analysis of Test Protocols," Journal of Abnormal and So-cial Psychology, 49 (1954), 485-490. (LRF 139, 144)

It* Hood, William C., "Empirical Studies of Demand," Canadian Jour- Ec Eco Nnal of Economics and Political Science, 21 (1955), 309-327. (LRF427)

*** Horowitz, I.A., and Rothschild, B.H., "Conformity as a Function of Ju Psy YmDeception and Role Playing," Journal of Personality and SocialPsychology, 14 (1970), 224-226.Reproduces Asch's (1965) study of conformity with role play-ing. (LRF 127)Hotelling, Harold, "The Teaching of Statistics," Annals of Math- NR NR NRematica/ Statistics, 11 (1940), 457-470.Incidentally, Hotelling's comments about the problems withteaching are the same ones we hear today. (LRF 323)

..* Houston, B. Kent, and Holmes, Davis S., "Role Playing versus Ju Psy YmDeception: The Ability of Subjects to Simulate Self-Report andPhysiological Responses," Journal of Social Psychology, 96 (1975),91-98. (LRF 127)Houthakker, H.S., "New Evidence on Demand Elasticities," Econ- Ec Eco Yornetrica, 33 (1965), 277-288 (LRF 212)Houthakker, H.S., and Taylor, L.D., Consumer Demand in the United Ec Eco YStates. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1966 (Re-vised 1970). (LRF 200, 471)Howard, John A., and Sheth, Jagdish N., The Theory of Buyer Sg Mkt NRBehavior. New York: Wiley, 1969. (LRF 263)Howrey, E.P., "On the Choice of Forecasting Models for Air Travel," Ec Tm YJournal of Regional Science, 9 (1969), 215-224. (LRF 228,237)Huber, George P., and Delbecq. André, "Guidelines for Combining Ju NR Nthe Judgments of Individual Members in Decision Conferences,"Academy of Management Journal, 15 ( 1972), 161-174.Interesting conclusions, but it was not clear to me how theseconclusions were reached. (LRF 96,105, 589)

** Hultgren, Thor, "Forecasts of Railway Traffic," in National Bureau Ex Tm Ymof Economic Research, Short-Term Economic Forecasting: Studiesin Income and Wealth, No. 17, Princeton, N.J., 1955, pp. 363-380.(LRF 88,397,400)Hummel, Francis E., Market and Sales Potential. New York: Ronald Ec Mkt YPress, 1961.

Read the Rayco case as a "how not to do it" and forget therest of the book. (LRF 53)

**

*

**

Ju

References 545

M F E*

* Hutchesson, B.N.P., "Market Research and Forecasting for the Ex Mkt NChemical Industry: The State of the Art," Industrial Marketing Re-search Association Journal, 3 (1967), 242-260. (LRF 153)

* Hyman, Herbert H., A Secondary Analysis of Sample Surveys. New Ju NR NRYork: Wiley, 1972.Contains a list of 17 data archives. (LRF 259, 469)

** Ibrahim, I.B., and Otsuki, T., "Forecasting GNP Components Using Ec Eco Ymthe Method of Box and Jenkins," Southern Economic Journal, 42 Ex(1976), 461-470.Box-Jenkins proved more accurate than Wharton and OBEeconometric models for one-period-ahead forecasts. No test ofstatistical significance was done. (LRF 408)

Jaffee, Dwight, Malkiel, B.G., and Ouandt, RE., "Predicting Com- Ec Fin Ymon Stock Prices: Payoffs and Pitfalls," Journal of Business Re-search, 2 (1974), 1-16.The authors concluded that "various naive models can do aswell or better than the [regression] equations analyzed in thispaper." (LRF 408)Janis, Irving L., and Mann, Leon, "Effectiveness of Emotional Role- Ju Psy YPlaying in Modifying Smoking Habits and Attitudes," Journal ofExperimental Research in Personality, 1 (1965), 84-90.If you would like to stop smoking, this approach might help.(LRF 125)

*It Jantsch, Erich, Technological Forecasting in Perspective. Paris: Or- NR Tec Nganization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1967.An annotated bibliography of 413 items is presented and thecoverage goes beyond technological forecasting. (LRF 7)Jarvik, ME., "Probability Learning and Negative Recency Effect Ju Psy Yin the Serial Anticipation of Alternative Symbols," Journal of Ex-perimental Psychology, 41 (1951), 291-297. (LRF 89)Jenness, Arthur, "Social Influences in the Change of Opinion," Ju Psy Yand "The Role of Discussion in Changing Opinion Regarding aMatter of Fact," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 27(1932), 29-34 and 279-296.The first of these articles provides a review of the literature,and the second reports on a "how-many-beans-in-a-jar" studyof judgment. (LRF 120)Jensen, Michael C., "The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Ju Fin YPeriod 1945-1964," Journal of Finance, 23 (1968), 389-416.The 115 mutual funds in this study were unable to predictbetter than a "buy-the-market-and-hold" strategy. (LRF 528)Johnson, Jeffrey L., "A Ten-Year Delphi Forecast in the Electronics Ju Mkt YIndustry," Industrial Marketing Management, 5 (March 1976),45-55.

"

546

M

References

F E*

Describes the operational details of a Delphi study at CorningGlass Works. Provides data on speed of response, responserates, dropout rates, calendar time, and time use per panelmember. (LRF 117)Johnson-Laird, P.N., and Wason, P.C., "A Theoretical Analysis of Ju Psy YInsight into a Reasoning Task," Cognitive Psychology, 1 (1970),134-148.Helps explain why experience does little to overcome preju-dice. (LRF 378)* Johnston, John, Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill, Ec Eco NR1963; revised 1984. (LRF 181, 215, 220, 224)

* Johnston, Roy, and McNeal, B.F., "Combined MMPI and Demo-graphic Data in Predicting Length of Neuropsychiatric Hospital

EcJu

Psy Y

Stay," Journal of Consulting Psychology, 28 (1964), 64-70. (LRF229, 230)

*** Johnston, Roy and McNeal, B.F., "Statistical versus Clinical Pre-diction: Length of Neuropsychiatric Hospital Stay," Journal of Ab-normal Psychology, 72 (1967), 335-340. (LRF 94)

EcJu

Psy Y

Jolson, Marvin, and Rossow, Gerald, "The Delphi Process in Mar-keting Decision Making," Journal of Marketing Research, 8(1971),443-448.

Ju NR Y

Navy people and computer people made estimates of navalstrength and of the computer running time for a problem.(LRF 119)

** Jorgenson, Dale W., Hunter, Jerald, and Nadiri, Ml., "The Pre-dictive Performance of Econometric Models of Quarterly Invest-ment Behavior," Econometric°, 38 (1970), 213-224.

Ec Eco Ym

I reexamined their data to test the hypothesis that simplemodels are more stable than complex ones. The simplicity ofthe four models, ranked by the number of variables (five, six,seven, and nine), agreed perfectly with the ranking of sta-bility (p < .05). In other words, complexity reduced stability.(LRF 228)

* Joy, O. Maurice, and Tollef son, John O., "On the Financial Ap-plications of Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Financial and

T Fin N

Quantitative Analysis, 10 (1975), 723-739.Good discussion on the measures that can be used to assessaccuracy in classification problems. (LRF 354)Juster, F. Thomas, Anticipations and Purchases: An Analysis of Ju Mkt YConsumer Behavior. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press,1964. (LRF 106)

Juster, F. Thomas, "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Ju Mkt YProbability: An Experiment in Survey Design," Journal of the Amer-ican Statistical Association, 61 (1966), 658-696. (LRF 106)

1 Juster, F. Thomas, "Consumer Anticipations and Models of Durable Ju Mkt Y

Goods Demand," in Jacob Mincer (Ed.), Economic Forecasts andExpectations. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research,1969. (Distributed by Columbia University Press.) (LRF 85)

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547

E*

* Juster, F. Thomas, "An Evaluation of the Recent Record in Short- Ec Eco N

Term Forecasting," Business Economics, 7 (May 1972), 22-26.Strong conclusionsfor example, "The record reveals no clear-cut and sustained advantage of complex and highly structuredmodel forecasting systems over the simpler and less well spec-ified judgmental forecasting systems." (LRF 237, 241)

Kahnernan, Daniel and Tversky, Amos, "On the Psychology of Ju Psy YPrediction," Psychological Review, 80 (1973), 237-251. (LRF 97,104, 376)

** Kanuk, Leslie, and Berenson, Conrad, "Mail Surveys and Response Ju NR YRates: A Literature Review," Journal of Marketing Research, 12(1975), 440-453. (LRF 114)

*** Kaplan, A., Skogstad, AL., and Girshick, M.A., 'The Predictionof Social and Technological Events," Public Opinion Quarterly, 14

Ju Soc Y

(Spring 1950), 93-110. (LRF 120-121)* Kegeles, S.S., Fink, C.F., and Kirscht, J.P., "Interviewing a National Ju Med Y

Sample by Long-Distance Telephone," Public Opinion Quarterly,33 (1969), 412-419.Respondents to a previous personal interview on the subjectwere likely to respond also to a follow-up telephone survey.(LRF 114)

*** Kelly, E. Lowell, and Fiske, D.W., ''The Prediction of Success inthe VA Training Program in Clinical Psychology," The American

Ju Per Y

Psychologist, 5 (1950), 395-406. (LRF 55, 100, 323)Kennedy, M.C., "How Well Does the National Institute Forecast?" Ec Eco YNational Institute Economic Review, No. 50 (November 1969), 40-52.

Confusing write-up. (LRF 241)* Kidd, J.B., "The Utilization of Subjective Probabilities in Production Ju Pro Y

Planning," Acta Psychologica, 34 (1970), 338-347. (LRF 87)

** Kinney, William R., Jr., "Predicting Earnings: Entity versus Sub-entity Data," Journal of Accounting Research, 9 (1971), 127-136.

Ju Pro Y

(LRF 286, 644)Kirby, Robert M., "A Comparison of Short and Medium Range Ex Mkt YmStatistical Forecasting Methods," Management Science, 13 (1966),8202-13210.

Exponential smoothing, moving average, and regression-against-time models were compared for short- and interme-diate-range forecast accuracy. Kirby used actual data on sew-ing machine sales in five countries, as well as simulated data.Good study, but some important details seem to be missing.(LRF 173, 177, 494)Klein, W.H., 'The Computer's Role in Weather Forecasting," NR Wea NWeatherwise, 22 (1969), 195 seq.Historical review. (LRF 425, 427)

** Kleinmuntz, Benjamin, "Sign and Seer: Another Example," Journalof Abnormal Psychology, 72 (1967), 163-165. (LRF 280)

BoJu

Psy Ym

**

Langer, Ellen J., "The Illusion of Control," Journal of Persona/ity Ju Psy Yand Social Psycho/ogy, 32 (1975), 311-328.

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Klugman, Samuel F., "Group Judgments for Familiar and Unfa- Ju Psy Ymiliar Materials," Journal of General Psychology, 32 (1945),103-110. (LRF 135)Klugman, Samuel F., "Group and Individual Judgments for An- Ju Pol Yticipoted Events," Journal of Social Psychology, 26 (1947), 21-28.(LRF 136)

Koopmons, T.C., "Measurement without Theory," Review of Eco- Ec Eco Nnomics and Statistics, 29 (1947), 161-172.A review of Burns and Mitchell (1946). (LRF 53)Korman, Abraham K., "The Prediction of Managerial Performance: Ju Per YmA Review," Personnel Psychology, 21 (1968), 295-322.Of major interest is the comparison of subjective and objectivemethods. The major problem with the analysis is that thecriterion (managerial success) is similar to the subjective pre-dictor (ratings of potential success by managers). (LRF 395,396, 399)

11. Kort, Fred, "Predicting Supreme Court Decisions Mathematically: Bo Pol YmA Quantitative Analysis of the 'Right to Counsel' Cases," American JuPolitical Science Review, 51 (1957), 1-12.Franklin Fisher, American Political Science Review,52 (1958),321-338, criticized Kort's study; actually, it beat the hell outof the details. Kort replied in the same issue. (LRF 276)

*it Kosobud, Richard F., "Forecasting Accuracy and Uses of an Econ- Ec Eco Ymometric Model," Applied Economics, 2 (1970), 253-263. ExThe criterion (R2) and the extrapolation model were not idealfor such a comparison. The write-up seems to omit some rel-evant material. (LRF 396, 403, 406, 409)Kreinin, ME., and Uninger, C.A., "Ownership and Purchase of Sg Mkt YNew Cars in the U.S.," International Economic Review, 4 (1963),310-324. (LRF 260,261)

it Kuh, E., "The Validity of Cross-Sectionally Estimated Behavior Ec Eco YEquations in Time Series Applications," Econometrica, 27 (1959),197-214.Discusses differences between cross-section and time seriesdata. Suggests that estimates from the two types of data beaveraged. (LRF 212)Kunreuther, Howard, "Extensions of Bowman's Theory on Mana- Bo Pro Ymgerial Decision-Making," Management Science, 15 (1969), Ju415-439. (LRF 280)Kurt., A.K., "A Research Test of the Rorschach Test," Personnel T Per YmPsychology, 1 (1948), 41-51. (LRF 340)

**

References' 549

M F E*

Competition, choice, familiarity, and involvement tend to givepeople a feeling of control, even in situations involving chance.Describes six studies. (LRF 376;378)

*** Langer, Ellen J., and Roth, Jane, "Heads I Win, Tails It's Chance: Ju Psy YThe Illusion of Control as a Function of the Sequence of Outcomesin a Purely Chance Task," Journal of Personality and Social Psy-chology, 32 (1975), 951-955.Subjects attribute successes to themselves, but blame chancefor their failures. (LRF 376,378)LaPiere, R.T., "Attitudes vs. Actions," Social Forces, 13 (1934), Ju Soc Y230-237. (LRF 84)

* Larsen, Knud S., Coleman, D., Forbes, J., and Johnson, R., "Is the Ju Psy YSubject's Personality or the Experimental Situation a Better Pre-dictor of a Subject's Willingness to Administer Shocks to a Victim?"Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 22 (1972), 287-295.(LRF 127)

Laski, Harold J., "Limitations of the Expert," Chemical Technology, Ju NR N4 (April 1974), 198-202.Originally published in Harpers in 1930. (LRF 375)

*** Loughhunn, D.J., On the Predictive Value of Combining Cross- Ec Eco YmSection and Time-Series Data in Empirical Demand Studies. Bureauof Economic and Business Research, University of Illinois, Urbana,1969. (LRF 213)Lave, Lester, "The Value of Better Weather Information for the T Agr YRaisin Industry," Econometrica, 31 (1963), 151-164. (LRF 388)Lawler, Edward E., and Hackman, John R., "The Impact of Employee I Pro YmParticipation in the Development of Pay Incentive Plans," Journalof Applied Psychology, 53 (1969), 467-471. (LRF 36)

"'"' Lawshe, CH., and Schucker, RE., "The Relative Efficiency of Four Ec Edu YmTest Weighting Methods in Multiple Prediction," Educational andPsychological Measurement, 19 (1959), 103-114. (LRF 230)Lee, M.C., "Interactions, Configurations, and Nonadditive Models," Sg Psy NEducational and Psychological Measurement, 21 (1961), 797-805.(LRF 250)

"' Leontief, Wassily W., "Proposal for Better Business Forecasting," Sg Eco NHarvard Business Review, 42 (NovemberDecember 1964), 166seq. (LRF 264,265)Lerner, Melvin J., and Simmons, CH., "Observer's Reaction to the Ju NR Y'Innocent Victim': Compassion or Rejection?"Journal of Personalityand Social Psychology, 4 (1966), 203-210. (LRF 435)Leser, C.E.V., "A Survey of Econometrics," Journal of the Royal Ec Eco NStatistical Society: Series A, 131 (1968), 530-566. (LRF 226)L'Esperance, Wilford L., "A Case Study in Prediction: The Market Ec Agr Ymfor Watermelons," Econometrica, 32 (1964), 163-173. (LRF 200)

** Levenbach, Hans, Cleary, Jim P., and Fryk, Dave A., "A Compar- Ec Mkt Yison of ARIMA and Econometric Models for Telephone Demand," ExProceedings of the American Statistical Association: Business andEconomics Statistics Section, 1974, pp. 448-450. (LRF 408)

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** Levine, Jacob, and Butler, John, "Lecture vs. Group Decision in I Pro YChanging Behavior," Journal of Applied Psychology, 36 (1952),29-33. (LRF 35)

** Levine, Robert A., "Capital Expenditures Forecasts by Individual Ju Fin YFirms," in National Bureau of Economic Research, The Quality andSignificance of Anticipations Data, Princeton, N.J., 1960, pp.351-366. (LRF 138, 291, 292, 396, 399)

*** Levins, R., "The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology," NR NR NAmerican Scientist, 54 (1966), 421-431. (LRF 183)Levitt, Theodore, "Marketing Myopia," Harvard Business Review, NR NR N38 (JulyAugust 1960), 45-56. (LRF 15)Levitt, Theodore, Innovation in Marketing. New York: McGraw- NR NR NHill, 1962. (LRF 15)Levy, Bernard Land Ulman, E., "Judging Psychopathology from Ju Psy YmPaintings," Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 72 (1967), 182-187.(LRF 93)

le** Levy, Robert A., "The Predictive Significance of Five-Point Chart Ex Fin YPatterns," Journal of Business, 44 ( 1971b), 316-323.Do you believe that charting helps in predicting the stockmarket? How about the Easter Bunny? (LRF 183)

*** Lewin, Kurt, "Group Decision and Social Change," in Theodore I Mkt YmNewcomb and E.L. Hartley (Eds.), Reading in Social Psychology.New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1947. (LRF 35)Lewis, Sinclair, Arrowsmith. New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1924. T Med NRNovel about the dilemma faced by an experimenter; to learn,you must do something wrong. (For trivia fans, Lewis refuseda Pulitzer Prize for this novel in 1925.) (LRF 435)

** Libby, Robert, "Man versus Model of Man: Some Conflicting Evi- Ec Fin Ymdence," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16 Ju(1976a), 1-12.Bootstrapping of 43 bank loan officers. (LRF 283, 538)Libby, Robert, "Man versus Model of Man: The Need for a Non- Ec Fin Nlinear Model," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, Ju16 (19766), 23-26.A reply to Goldberg's 11976) critique. (LRF 538)Liebling, Herman I., Bidwell, Peter T., and Hall, Karen E., "The Ec Eco NRecent Performance of Anticipation Surveys and Econometric Model JuProjections of Investment Spending in the United States," Journalof Business, 49 (1976), 451-477. (LRF 395, 396, 400)

** Lindzey, G., "Seer vs. Sign," Journal of Experimental Research in Ec Psy YmPersonality, 1(1965), 17-26. JuSee also Goldberg 11968b). ILRF 393, 538)

** Linsky, Arnold S., "Stimulating Responses to Mailed Question- Ju NR NRnoires: A Review," Public Opinion Quarterly, 39 (Spring 1975),82-101. (LRF 114)Linstone, Harold A., and Turoff, Murray (Eds.), The Delphi Method: Ju NR NRTechniques and Applications. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley,1975.

*

References 55 1

A collection of papers on various aspects of Delphi. Unfor-tunately, the art is not in good shape. Contains an extensivebibliography. Reviewed by Harold Sackman in Futures, 8(1976), 444-446. (LRF 117)

** Locke, EA., "What's in a Name?," American Psychologist, 16 (1961), Ec NR Y

607. (LRF 339)Lord, F.M., "Efficiency of Prediction When a Regression Equation T NR NRfrom One Sample is Used in o New Sample," Research Bulletin,RB 50-40, (7 pages). Princeton, N.J.: Educational Testing Service,

1950. (LRF 351)Lorie, J.H., and Niederhoffer, V., "Predictive and Statistical Prop- Ju Fin Y

erties of Insider Trading," Journal of Law and Economics, 11 (1968),

35-53.Inside information can lead to a better prediction of stockprices. This point has been made elsewhere. For example, readthe account of the Texas Gulf Sulphur case in Brooks (1969).

(LRF 94)** Lykken, D.T., and Rose, R., "Psychological Prediction from Actu- Ec Pay Ym

aria! Tables," Journal of Clinical Psychology, 19 (1963), 139-151. Sg

(LRF 255,413,415)** Lyon, Herbert L., 'The Utility of Using Extraneous Information in Ec Mkt Ym

Sales Forecasting," in Philip R. McDonald (Ed.), Marketing In-volvement in Society and the Economy. Chicago: American Mar-keting Association, 1969, pp. 220-225.My interpretation of this study was supplemented with in-formation from the author by personal communication. (LRF213)

[Note: See Mc after Mb.

Macdonald, J. Ross, "Are the Data Worth Owning?' Science, 176 T NR NR(1972), 1377.How high is the sun? The author says that a good rule ofthumb to estimate measurement error is to obtain the bestestimate you can by using independent sources, and thenmultiply by 3. (LRF 65)Machlup, Fritz, "The Problem of Verification in Economics," South- T Eco Nern Economic Journal, 22 (1955), 1-21.Argues that unconditional predictions are useless. (LRF 306)

ft. Maier, Norman, R.F., Problem Solving Discussions and Confer- Ju NR Ymences. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1963.A useful guide on how to run group meetings. Unfortunately,this excellent book is now out of print. (LRF 32)

1 Maier, Norman R.F., "Prior Commitment as a Deterrent to Group Ju Per YmProblem Solving," Personnel Psychology, 26 (1973), 117-126.(LRF 124)Maier, Norman R.F., and Maier, Richard A., "An Experimental Test Ju Per Ymof the Effects of 'Developmental' vs. 'Free' Discussions on the Qual.

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ity of Group Decisions,"Journal of Applied Psychology, 41 (1957),320-323. (LRF 121, 122)Maier, Norman R.F., and Solem, Allen R., "The Contribution of a Ju Psy YmDiscussion Leader to the Quality of Group Thinking: The EffectiveUse of Minority Opinions," Human Relations, 5 (1952), 277-288.(LRF 31, 121)Malinvaud, E., Statistical Methods of Econometrics, New York: El- Ec Eco NRsevier North Holland, 1930. (LRF 220)

** Mann, Floyd C., "Studying and Creating Change: A Means to I Fin YUnderstanding Social Organization," in Conrad M. Arensberg (Ed.),Research in Industrial Human Relations. New York: Harper andBrothers, 1957, pp. 146-167. For a shorter version, see in TimothyW. Costello and Sheldon S. Zalkind (Eds.). Psychology in Admin-istration. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1963. (LRF 37)Markiewicz, Dorothy, "Effects of Humor on Persuasion," Sociorn- NR NR NRetry, 37 (1974), 407-422. (LRF xiii)

** Markland, Robert E., "A Comparative Study of Demand Forecasting Ec Pro YmTechniques for Military Helicopter Spare Parts," Naval Research ExLogistics Quarterly, 17 (1970), 103-119.(LRF 170, 406, 408, 4951Marrow, Alfred J., and French, J.R.P., "Changing a Stereotype in I Pro YIndustry," Journal of Social Issues, 1(1945), 33-37. (LRF 33).Martino, Joseph P., Technological Forecasting for Decision Mak- NR Tec NRing, New York: American Elsevier, 1983.This second edition, which is half the length of the originaledition, provides a good description of Delphi. (LRF 117)

** Massy, William F., "Principal Components Regression in Explor- Ec Mkt Ymatory Statistical Research," Journal of the American Statistical As-sociation, 60 ( 1965), 234-256. (LRF 223)Mayfield, Eugene C., "Value of Peer Nominations in Predicting Life Ju Pro YInsurance Sales Performance," Journal of Applied Psychology, 56(1972), 319-323. (LRF 223)McClain, John O., "Decision Modeling in Case Selection for Med- Bo Med Yical Utilization Review," Management Science, 18 (1972),B706-8717. (LRF 277)McDonald, John, "An Analysis of the Significance of Revisions to Ec Eco YSome Quarterly U. K. National Income Time Series," Journal ofthe Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 138 ( 1975), 242-256, (1972).(LRF 221)

** McFall, R.M., "Effects of Self-Monitoring on Normal Smoking Be- I Med Ymhavior," Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 35 ( 1970),135-142.Small sample, but subjects who kept track of their smokingincreased it by 87%. When they kept count of the number oftimes they felt like smoking but did not, the smoking ratewent down by 31%. Conclusion: measure the behavior thatyou want to achieve. (LRF 37)

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** McGregor, Douglas, "The Major Determinants in the Prediction of Ju Soc YSocial Events," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33(1938), 179-204.Analysis of 3500predictions made by 400 people. (LRF 86)

McHale, John, "The Changing Pattern of Futures Research in the NR NR YUSA," Futures, 5 (June 1973), 257-271. (LRF 1 1 7)

McLaughlin, Robert L., "The Forecasters' Batting Averages," Busi- Ec Eco Ymness Economics, 3 (May 1973), 58-59. (LRF 228)McMillan, Robert K., and Assael, Henry, National Survey of Trans- Ju Tm n Ymportation Attitudes and Behavior, Phase I: Summary Report. High-way Research Board, 1968. (LRF 116)McNees, Stephen K., "How Accurate are Economic Forecasts," New Ec Eco YmEngland Economic Review, (NovemberDecember 1974), 2-19.(LRF 229, 230, 397, 409)

McNees, Stephen K., "An Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," New Ec Eco YmEngland Economic Review, (NovemberDecember 1975), 3-39.Extension of McNees (1974). Here he examines the forecastaccuracy of seven major econometric models. This evaluationof macroeconomic forecasts is periodically updated by Mc-Nees. The latest version (with John Ries as co-author) wasin the November/December 1984 issue. (Available from theResearch Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Bos-ton, Mass 02106) (LRF 237, 396)McNeil, John, "Federal Programs to Measure Consumer Purchase Ju Eco NExpectations, 1946-1973: A Post-Mortem," Journal of ConsumerResearch, 1 (December 1974), 1-10.

Discusses the reasoning behind the U.S. government's deci-sion in 1973 to end its sponsorship of consumer intentionsand attitudes surveys. (LRF 553)

*** McNeil, John M., and Stoterau, Thomas L., "The Census Bureau's Ju Eco YNew Survey of Consumer Buying Expectations," in Proceedings ofthe American Statistical Association: Business and Economic Sta-tistics Section, 1967, pp. 97-113.See McNeil (1974) also. (LRF 81)McNemar, Quinn, "Review of Clinical versus Statistical Prediction Ec Psy Nby P. E. Meehl," American Journal of Psychology, 68 (1955), 510. Ju(LRF 393)McNemar, Quinn, Psychological Statistics, New York: Wiley, 1962. Ju Psy NR(LRF 351)

Meadows, Donella H., et al., The Limits to Growth, New York: Sg NR YUniverse Books, 1972. (LRF 263)

Medvedev, Zhores, A., The Rise and Fall of T.D. Lysenko, New T Agr NYork: Columbia University Press, 1969. (LRF 156)Meehl, Paul E., Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Ec NR YmAnalysis and a Review of the Evidence. Minneapolis: Universityof Minnesota Press, 1954. (LRF 393)

*

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It* Meehl, Paul E., "A Comparison of Clinicians with Five Statistical Ec Psy YmMethods of Identifying Psychotic MMPI Profiles," Journal of Coun-seling Psychology, 6 (1959), 102-109. (LRF 414)

*IV Meehl, Paul E., "Seer Over Sign: The First Good Example," Journal Ec NR Ymof Experimental Research in Personality, 1 (1965), 27-32. JuMeehl used this opportunity to update his box score of studiesfrom 18 in his 1954 book to about 70 as of 1965. (LRF 393)Michael, George C., "A Heuristic Approach to Forecasting A Sim- Bo Mkt Ymulation of Estimating Sales by a Catalog Control Buyer," abstract Juin Philip R. McDonald (Ed.), Marketing Involvement in Society andthe Economy. Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1969,p. 412. (LRF 280)Michael, George C., "A Computer Simulation Model for Forecasting Bo Mkt YmCatalog Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, 8(1971), 224-229. JuContains more detail on Michael (1969). Nevertheless, thedescription seemed incomplete. (LRF 280)Milgram, Stanley, Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View. NR NR YNew York: Harper and Row, 1974. (LRF 127, 561)Milkovich, George T., Annoni, A.J., and Mahoney, TA., "The Use Ju Per Yof Delphi Procedures in Manpower Forecasting," Management Sci-ence, 19 (1972), 381-388.This would have been a good study if the authors had usedmore than one observation. (LRF 396, 399)Miller, Arthur G., "Role Playing: An Alternative to Deception? A Ju NR NReview of the Evidence," American Psychologist, 27 (1972),623-636.Review article based on four empirical studies. A negativeview of role playing, based on what I thought to be strangearguments. This reference is provided to give you an alter-native to the viewpoint in LRF. (LRF 128)Miller, George A., "The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Ju NR NTwo," Psychological Review, 63 (1956a), 81-97. (LRF 102)Miller, George A., "Information and Memory,"Scientific American, Ju NR N195 (August 1956b), 42-46. (LRF 102)Miller, Jeffrey G., Berry, William L., and Lai, Cheng-Yi F., "A Sg Pro YmComparison of Alternative Forecasting Strategies for Multi-stageProduction-Inventory Systems," Decision Sciences, 7 (1976),714-724. (LRF 265)Mincer, Jacob, and Zarnowitz, Victor, "The Evaluation of Economic Ex Eco YmForecasts," in Jacob Mincer (Ed.), Economic Forecasts and Expec- Jutations: Analyses of Forecasting Behavior and Performance. NewYork: Columbia University Press, 1969. (LRF 396,399)Minor, F.J., "The Prediction of Turnover of Clerical Employees," Ec Per YPersonnel Psychology, 11 (1958), 393-409.Good illustration of shrinkage. (LRF 342)

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** Mitau, G. Theodore, Thorson, S., and Johnson, Q., "Aggregate Ju Pol YData in Election Prediction," Public Opinion Quarterly, 33 (1969),96-99. (LRF 267)Mitroff, Ion, "The Myth of Objectivity," or, "Why Science Needsa New Psychology of Science," Management Science, 18 (1972),B613-8618.

NR Sci Y

For more recent discussion on this see ARMSTRONG 1980b(LRF 437, 581, 588)

** Mixon, Don, "Instead of Deception," Journal for the Theory of Ju Psy YmSocial Behavior, 2 (1972), 145-177. (LRF 127)Mize, Jan L., and Ulveling, Edwin F., "The Demand for Domestic Ec Tm n YmAirline Passenger Transportation: An Analysis and a Forecast for1975," Mississippi Valley Journal of Business and Economics, 6(Fall 1970), 56-68. (LRF 212, 327)Modigliani, Franco and Sauerlender, Owen H., "Economic Expec-tations and Plans of Firms in Relation to Short-Term Forecasting,"in National Bureau of Economic Research, Short-Term Forecasting.

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Studies in Income and Wealth, No. 17, Princeton, N.J., 1955. (LRF

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Anticipatory Data on Investment and Sales," Quarterly Journal of JuEconomics, 72 (February 1958), 23-54. (LRF 396)Mohn, N. Carroll, Schaffer, William A., and Sartorius, Lester C.,"Input-Output Modeling: New Sales Forecasting Tool," Universityof Michigan Business Review, 28 (July 1976), 7-15. (LRF 265)

Sg Mkt N

** Montgomery, David B., "New Product Distribution: An Analysis of Bo Mkt YSupermarket Buyer Decisions," Journal of Marketing Research, 12 T(1975), 255-264. (LRF 341, 342)

** Montgomery, David B., and Armstrong, J. Scott, "Consumer Re-sponse to a Legitimated Brand Appeal," in Johan Arndt (Ed.),Insights into Consumer Behavior. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1968.

EcSg

Mkt Y

(LRF 256)* Montgomery, David B., and Morrison, Donald G., "A Note on Ad-

justing R2," Journal of Finance, 28 (1973), 1009-1013. (LRF 351)T NR N

** Moore, Geoffrey H., "Forecasting Short-Term Economic Change," Ec Eco YJournal of the American Statistical Association, 64 (1969), 1-22. Ex(LRF 409)Moore, Henry T., "The Comparative Influence of Majority and Ex-pert Opinion," American Journal of Psychology, 32 (1921), 16-20.

Ju Soc Y

The impacts of "majority" and "expert" opinion are of roughlycomparable magnitude when it comes to influencing groupopinion. This study covered speech, morals, and music. (LRF110)

*** Morgan, James N., and Sonquist, John A., "Problems in the Anal-ysis of Survey Data, and a Proposal," Journal of the American

Ec Soc N

Statistical Association, 58 (1963), 415-434. (LRF 250)

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NR Mkt Y

ift Mosier, Charles I., "A Critical Examination of the Concepts of Face T NR NValidity," Educational and Psychological Measurement, 7 (1947),191-205. (LRF 324)Moskowitz, Herbert, "Regression Models of Behavior for Mona-gerial Decision Making," Omega, 2 (1974), 677-690.

Bo Pro Ym

Replication that supports Bowman (1963). (LRF 282)Moskowitz, Herbert, and Miller, J.G., "Man, Models of Man, or Bo Pro YmMathematical Models for Managerial Decision Making?" Pro-ceedings of the American Institute for Decision Sciences, New Or-leans, November 1972, pp. 849-856. (LRF 282, 524)

Ju

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Nader, Ralph, Petkas, Peter, and Blackwell, Kate, Whistle Blow-ing. New York: Grossman, 1972. (LRF 38, 424)

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111 Nagel, Ernest, "Assumptions in Economic Theory," American Eco-nomic Review, 53 (1963), 211-219.

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A critique of Friedman (1953). (LRF 306)Namboodiri, N.K., and Lalu, N.M., 'The Average of Several Simple Ec Dem YRegression Estimates as an Alternative to the Multiple RegressionEstimate in Postcensal and Intercensal Population Estimation: ACase Study," Rural Sociology, 36 (1971), 187-194. (LRF 242)

If* Narasimham, Gorti, CasteIlino, Victor F., and Singpurwal la, Nozer Ec Eco YmD., "On the Predictive Performance of the BEA Quarterly Econo-metric Model and a Box-Jenkins Type ARIMA Model," Proceedingsof the American Statistical Association: Business and Economic

Ex

Statistics Section, 1974, pp. 501-504.Ex post evaluation of macroeconomic forecasts from 1970 to1974. No tests of statistical significance. (LRF 408)

** National Industrial Conference Board, Forecasting Sales, Studiesin Business Policy, No. 106, New York, 1963. (LRF 288)

NR NR N

Naylor, Thomas H., Seeks, T.G., and Wichern, D. W., "Box-Jenkins Ec Eco YmMethods: An Alternative to Econometric Models," International Sta-tistical Review, 40 (1972), 123-137.

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**** Newton, Joseph R., "Judgment and Feedback in a Quasi-clinical Ju Psy YmSituation," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1 (1965),336-342. (LRF 382)

**** Nisbett, Richard E., and Borgida, Eugene, "Attribution and the Ju NR YPsychology of Prediction," Journal of Personality and Social Psy-chology, 32 (1975), 932-943."Subjects' unwillingness to deduce the particular from thegeneral was matched only by their willingness to infer thegeneral from the particular." See also BORGIDA119781. (LRF85, 589)

** NoeIle-Neumann, Elisabeth, "Wanted: Rules for Wording Struc- Ju NR Ntured Questionnaires," Public Opinion Quarterly, 34 (Summer 1970),190-201.Discusses problems with wording, such as monotony, follow-up questions, position of the question, how to define the objectof the study, and how to express alternatives. Presents ex-amples and suggests solutions. (LRF 99)North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Forecasting on a Scientific Ba- NR NR NRsis. Lisbon, Portugal, 1967. (LRF 403)Nystedt, Lars, and Magnusson, David, "Cue Relevance and Feed- Ju Edu Ymback in a Clinical Prediction Task," Organizational Behavior andHuman Performance, 9 (1973), 100-109. (LRF 382)

O'Dell, William F., "Personal Interviews or Mail Panels," Journal Ju Mkt Ymof Marketing, 26 (October 1962), 34-39 (LRF 115)Ogburn, William F., "Studies in Prediction and the Distortion of Ju Soc YRealtiy," Social Forces, 13 (1934), 224-229. (LRF 88, 144)Ogburn, William F., The Social Effects of Aviation, Boston: Hough- Ex Tm n Yton Mifflin, 1946. (LRF 184, 407, 409)

**

558 References

M F E*

fit O'Herlihy, C., et al., "Long-Term Forecasts of Demand for Cars, Ec Eco YSelected Consumer Durables and Energy," National Institute Eco-nomic Review, 40 (May 1967), 34-61. (LRF 201, 241, 291, 292,409, 410)

** Ohlin, Lloyd E., and Duncan, 0.D., "The Efficiency of Prediction Ec Soc Ymin Criminology," American-Journal of Sociology, 54 (1949), 441-452.(LRF 339, 354, 402, 427)

fr Okun, Arthur H., 'The Value of Anticipations Data in Forecasting Ex Eco YmNatioal Product," in National Bureau of Economic Research, The JuQuality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, Prince-ton, N.J.: 1960. (LRF 138, 290, 292, 396, 398).Orcutt, Guy H., et al., Microanalysis of Socioeconomic Systems: A Sg Eco NRSimulation Study. New York: Harper and Brothers, 1961. (LRF 250)

t Orne, M.T., Sheehan, P.W., and Evans, F.J., "Occurrence of Post- Ju Psy Yhypnotic Behavior Outside the Experimental Setting," Journal ofPersonality and Social Psychology, 9(1968), 189-196. (LRF 125)Orson, R.W., "Forecasting in the Electricity Supply Industry," in Ex Mkt YMichael Young (Ed.), Forecasting and the Social Sciences, London:Heinemann, 1968. (LRF 167)Oskamp, Stuart, "Overconfidence in Case Study Judgments,"Jour- Ju Psy Ynot of Consulting Psychology, 29 (1965), 261-265. (LRF 142)Oskamp, Stuart, "Clinical Judgment from MMPI: Simple or Com- Bo Psy Ymplex?" Journal of Clinical Psychology, 23 (1967), 411-415. EcClinical psychologists used MMPI plus education and age Juvariables to predict which patients had mental problems. (LRF93, 142)Ostlund, Lyman E., "Factor Analysis Applied to Predictors of In- Ec Mkt Ynovative Behavior," Decision Sciences, 4 (1973), 92-108. (LRF223)

** Palmore, Erdman, "Predicting Longevity: A Follow-up Controlling Ec Med Yfor Age," The Gerontologist, 9 (1969), 247-250. (LRF 287) SgParkinson, C. Northcote, Parkinson's Law. New York: Ballantine, NR NR NR1957. (LRF 371)

Pashigian, B. Peter, "The Accuracy of the Commerce-S.E.C. Sales Ex Eco YAnticipations," Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (1964), Ju398-405. (LRF 161)Patterson, CH., "Diagnostic Accuracy or Diagnostic Stereotypy," T NR NJournal of Consulting Psychology, 19 (1955), 483-485.This provides a history on the problem of multiple compari-sons. (LRF 357)

** Payne, Donald E., "Jet Set, Pseudo-Store, and New Product Test- Ju Mkt Ying," Journal of Marketing Research, 3 (1966), 372-376.Good study on validity of intentions to purchase a new typeof TV. (LRF 81)Payne, James L., and Dyer, James A., "Betting after the Race is Ec Pol YOver: The Perils of Post Hoc Hypothesizing," American Journal ofPolitical Science, 19 (1975), 559-564. (LRF 341)

References 559

M F E*

Payne, Stanley L., The Art of Asking Questions. Princeton, N.J.: Ju Soc NPrinceton University Press, 1951.Contains good checklists. (LRF 99)Peters, William, A Class Dividend. Garden City: Doubleday, 1971. NR NR NThe "blue eyes and brown eyes" study of prejudice. (LRF 109)

* Pfungst, Oskar, Clever Hans. New York: Holt, 1911. NR NR YSee Rosenthal and Rosnow (1969, pp. 197-199) for a shortsummary. (LRF 108)

Pickhardt, Robert C., and Wallace, John B., "A Study of the Per- Ju NR Yformance of Subjective Probability Assessors," Decision Sciences5 (1974), 347-363.Assesses uncertainty in a management game. About 30% ofthe actual values fell outside the subjectively estimated 98%confidence intervals. Judges had difficulty with estimates closeto 0 or 1 (e.g., in horse racing, bettors put too high a proba-bility on long-shots and too low on favorites). (LRF 143)

**** Platt, John R., "Strong Inference," Science, 146 (1964), 347-353. T NR NImportant paper on the use of multiple hypotheses. (LRF 437,525)

PoKempner, Stanley J., and Bailey, E., Sales forecasting Practices. NR NR NRNew York: The Conference Board, 1970.(LRF 120, 288, 427)

Pollack, I., "Action Selection and the Yntema-Torgerson 'Worth' Bo NR YFunction." Paper read at the April 1962 meeting of the EasternPsychological Association.

According to Shepard (1964), Pollack replicated the Yntema-Torgerson study. I was unable to obtain a copy of Pollack'spaper. (LRF 279)

** Pool, Ithiel de Sola, and Abelson, Robert P., "The Sirnulmatics Sg Pol YmProject," Public Opinion Quarterly, 25 (Summer 1961), 167-183.(LRF 76, 559)

** Pool, Ithiel de Sola, Abelson, Robert P., and Popkin, S. L., Can- Sg Poi Ymdidates, issues and Strategies. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1965.

Expanded and updated version of Pool and Abelson (1961).Includes 1964 U.S. Presidential election. (LRF 250, 259, 395,397, 401, 410, 413)

*** Port of New York Authority, Air Travel Forecasting 1965-1975. Sg Tm n YSaugatuck, Conn.: Eno Foundation, 1957. (LRF 267, 290, 292)

Pratt, John W.; Raiffa, Howard, and Schlaifer, Robert, Introduction Ec NR Nto Statistical Decision Theory. London: McGraw-Hill, 1965. (LRF233, 413, 416)

Pratt, Robert W., "Consumer Buying Intentions as an Aid in For- Ju Mkt Ymulating Marketing Strategy," in Robert L. King (Ed.), Marketingand the New Science of Planning. Chicago: American MarketingAssociation, 1968, pp. 296-302. (LRF 81)

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**

o

1r* Press, Laurence I., Rogers, M.S., and Shure, G.H., "An Interactive Sg NR NTechnique for the Analysis of Multivariate Data," Behavioral Sci-ence, 14 (1969), 364-370. (LRF 262)Pressley, Milton M., Mail Survey Response: A Critically Annotated Ju NR NBibliography. Greensboro, N.C.: Faber, 1976.

Contains 110 entries. (LRF 114)Pritchard, David A., "Linear versus Configural Statistical Predic- Sg Soc Ymtion," Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 45 (1977),559-563. (LRF 413, 415)Pruitt, D.G., "Informational Requirements in Making Decisions," Ju NR YAmerican Journal of Psychology, 74 (1961), 433-439. (LRF 52,437)

Quinn, Robert P., and Mangione, Thomas W., "Evaluating Ju Per YWeighted Models of Measuring Job Satisfaction: A CinderellaStory," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 10 (1973),1-23. (LRF 218)

Rabinowitz, W., and Rosenbaum, J., "A Failure in the Prediction Ec Edu Ymof Pupil-Teacher Rapport," Journal of Educational Psychology, 49(1958), 93-98. (LRF 328)Rabitsch, Elisabeth, "Input-Output Analysis and Business Fore- Sg Eco Ncasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3 (1972),453-464. (LRF 265)Raiff°, Howard, Decision Analysis. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wes- NR NR NRley, 1968. (LRF 57)Raiffa, Howard, "Assessments of Probabilities." Unpublished pa- Ju NR Yper, January 1969. (Copies may be obtained from John FitzgeraldKennedy School of Government, Littauer Center, Harvard Univer-sity, Cambridge, Mass. 02138). (LRF 573)

** Raine, Jesse E., "Self-Adaptive Forecasting Reconsidered," Deci- Ex Mkt Ymsion Sciences, 2 (1971), 181-191. (LRF 171, 494)Ranard, Elliot D., "Use of Input/Output Concepts in Sales Fore- Sg Mkt Ncasting," Journal of Marketing Research, 9 (1972), 53-58.A "how-to-do-it" article. (LRF 265)Raubenheimer, I. van W., and Tiffin, J., "Personnel Selection and Ec Per Ythe Prediction of Error," Journal of Applied Psychology, 55 (1971), Sg

229-233. (LRF 286)Reichard, Robert S., Practical Techniques of Sales Forecasting. New NR Mkt NYork: McGrow-Hill, 1966. (LRF 288)Reinmuth, James E., and Geurts, M.D., "A Bayesian Approach to Ec Mkt YmForecasting the Effects of Atypical Situations," Journal of Market-ing Research, 9 ( 1972), 292-297.Good idea, but only one data point! (LRF 273)Reiss, Albert J., Jr., "The Accuracy, Efficiency and Validity of a Ec Soc YmPrediction Instrument," American Journal of Sociology, 56 (1951),552-561. (LRF 55, 230)

560 References

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References 561

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Richards, R. Malcolm, "Analysts' Performance and the Accuracy Ju Fin Ymof Corporate Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Business, 49 (1976),350-357. (LRF 94)

** Ridker, Ronald G., "An Evaluation of the Forecasting Ability of the Ec Eco YmNorwegian National Budgeting System," Review of Economics and ExStatistics, 45 (1963), 23-33.Compares five different models, using extrapolation and econ-ometric methods; also uses five different criteria. Concludesthat naive methods are as good as econometric methods forannual ex ante forecasts over the 12-year test period. How-ever, the effects of the various methods were confounded. (LRF408)

** Ring, Kenneth, Wallston, K., and Corey, M., "Mode of Debriefing Ju Psy Ymas a Factor Affecting Subjective Reaction to a Milgram-Type Obe-dience Experiment: An Ethical Inquiry," Representative Researchin Social Psychology, 1(1970), 67-88.Replicates Milgram (1974), using sound instead of electricshocks, and also having the experimenter act surprised at thevictim's pain. Results were similar to Milgram's. (LRF 127)

*** Rippe, Richard D., and Wilkinson, Maurice, "Forecasting Accuracy Ec Eco Ymof the McGraw-Hill Anticipations Data," Journal of the American ExStatistical Association, 69 (1974), 849-858. JuIntentions were more accurate than extrapolation and econ-ometric methods for ex post forecasts over a four-year forecasthorizon. (LRF 396, 397, 401)Rippe, Richard D.; Wilkinson, Maurice, and Morrison, Donald, Sg Mkt Ym"Industrial Market Forecasting with Anticipations Data," Manage-ment Science, 6 (1976), 639-651.The authors used an input-output model that incorporatedanticipations data to make one-year forecasts in the steelindustry. The model did better than two simple naive models,but the sample sizes were small, the effects of the variousmethods were confounded, and the writing is poor. Otherwise,the article is O.K. (LRF 265, 409)Roach, Darrell E., "Double Cross-Validation of a Weighted Appli- T Per Ycation Blank over Time,"Journal of Applied Psychology, 55 (1971),157-160. (LRF 342)Robertson, Dennis H., "The Non-Econometrician's Lament," in Erik NR Eco NRLundberg (Ed.), The Business Cycle in the Post-war World. London:Macmillian, 1955. (LRF 192)Robinson, David, Wahlstrom, Owen, and Mecham, Robert C., Bo Per Y"Comparison of Job Evaluation Methods: A 'Policy Capturing' Ap-proach Using the Position Analysis Questionnaire," Journal ofApplied Psychology, 59 (1974), 633-637. (LRF 283)

** Rock, Donald A., Linn, R.L., Evans, FR., and Patrick, C., "A Com- Sg NR Ymparison of Predictor Selection Techniques Using Monte Carlo Meth-ods," Educational and Psychological Measurement, 30 (1970),873-884.

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562 References

Two indirect methods of segmentation were compared withtwo direct methods. A comparison was made between directsegmentation and forward and backward stepwise regres-sions. The regressions, especially the step-up version, pro-vided better forecasts. (LRF 223, 262)Rogers, Theresa F., "Interviews by Telephone and in Person: Qual- Ju Edu Ym

ity of Responses and Field Performance," Public Opinion Quar-terly, 40 (1976), 51-65.Telephones can be used for long interviews (about 50 min-utes). (LRF 115)

** Rosen, Albert, "Detection of Suicidal Patients: An Example of Some T Soc N

Limitations in the Prediction of Infrequent Events," Journal of Con-sulting Psychology, 18 (1954), 397-403.The suicide rate is only about 1 in 10,000 people per year.This creates problems for prediction. (LRF 354)Rosenthal, Robert, and Fode, K.L., "The Effect of Experimenter Bias T Psy Ymon the Performance of the Albino Rat," Behavioral Science, 8 (1963),

183-189. (LRF 110)

Rosenthal, Robert, and Jacobson, L., Pygmalion in the Classroom. T NR Ym

New York) Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1968.The first 60 pages provide a good review of the "self-fulfilling"prophecy. (LRF 109, 110)Rosenthal, Robert, and Rosnow, Ralph L., (Eds.), Artifact in Be- T NR Ymhayioral Research. New York) Academic Press, 1969.

(LRF 52, 108, 433, 559)** Rosenzweig, James E., The Demand for Aluminum: A Case Study Ec Mkt Y

in Business Forecasting. University of Illinois, Bureau of Economicsand Business Research, Champaign, 1957. (LRF 292, 409, 410)

Roth, Julius A., "Hired Hand Research," The American Sociologist, T NR N

1(1966), 190-196.Suggests that cheating and cutting corners are the rule ratherthan the exception among hired research workers. The so-lution? Roth says that the workers should participate in de-cision-making on the project. There is also a need to auditresults. (LRF 116)

** Rothman, James, "Formulation of an Index of Propensity to Buy," Ju Mkt YmJournal of Marketing Research, 1 (1964), 21-25.Compares four scales to assess coupon redemption for twobrands of soap and two brands of cereal. (LRF 106)Runyon, John H., Verdini, J., and Runyon, S.S., Source Book of NR NR NRAmerican Presidential Campaign and Election Statistics, 1948-1968.New York: Frederick Ungar, 1971. (LRF 129)

Russo, JA.; Enger, I., and Sorenson, EL., "A Statistical Approach Ec Wea Ymto the Short-Period Prediction of Surface Winds," Journal of Ap- Explied Meteorology, 3 (1964), 126-131. (LRF 395, 397, 409)

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** Ryback, D., "Confidence and Accuracy as a Function of Experience Ju NR Yin Judgment-Making in the Absence of Systematic Feedback,"Perceptual and Motor Skills, 24 (1967), 331-334. (LRF 142,380). Sackman, Harold, Delphi Critique: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, Ju NR NRand Group Process. Lexington, Mass.: D. C. Heath, 1975.Although this book is short (76 pages followed by about 150annotated references), it provided a thorough review and eval-uation of Delphi. Brian Twiss, in a review in Futures, 8(1976,357-358, says that the book has been highly controversial.Furthermore, he implies that Sackman's book will not con-vince advocates of Delphi to discard it. For critiques on Sack-man see the special issue on Delphi in Technological Fore-casting and Social Change, 7, No. 2, 1975. (LRF 117, 118,119, 433)Saginor, Irving, Forecast of Scheduled Domestic Air Passenger Traffic Ec Tm Yfor the Eleven Trunkline Carriers, 1968-1977.. Washington, D.C.:Civil Aeronautics Board, September 1967.

This 33-page booklet provides a simple and well-explainedexample of an econometric study. (LRF 326)Sale, Charles, The Specialist. London: Putnam, 1930. NR NR NRLem Putt, the privy builder, makes a good argument for thevalue of an expert. Nonexperts cannot build a good privy.Great fun for a 20-minute book. (LRF 92)Salomon, M., and Brown, R.V., "Applicationss of Econometrics to Ec Mkt YCommercial Forecasting Problems," Operational Research Guar- Sgterly, 15 (1964), 239-247.

Unfortunately, there is insufficient information in this paper.(LRF 286)Salvendy, Gavriel, and Seymour, W. Douglas, Prediction and De- NR Per NRvelopment of Industrial Work Performance, New York: Wiley, 1973.(LRF 202)

** Sanders, Frederick, "On Subjective Probability Forecasting," Jour- Ju Wea Ynot of Applied Meteorology, 2 (1963), 191-201.Weather forecasters became overconfident when no objectiverecord was kept of forecast accuracy. This did not occur whenthey kept records. (LRF 137)Sarbin, Theodore R., "A Contribution to the Study of Actuarial and Ec Edu YmIndividual Methods of Prediction," American Journal of Sociology, Ju48 (1943), 593-602.First of the "clinical vs. statistical" studies in psychology. Agood study that has held up well over the years. (LRF 393)Sarbin, Theodore R., Taft, R., and Bailey, DE., Clinical inference Ec Psy Ymand Cognitive Theory. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1960. Ju(LRF 93,568)

*** Sawyer, Jack, "Measurement and Prediction, Clinical and Statis- Ec NR Ntical," Psychological Bulletin, 66 (1966), 178-200. (LRF 393) Ju

564 References

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le* Scheflen, Kenneth C., Lawler, FE., and Hackman, J.R., "Long-Term I Pro YmImpact of Employee Participation in the Development of Pay In-centive Plans," Journal of Applied Psychology, 55 (1971), 182-186.

Management departed from participative management in twoof the three participative groups, surprising both the workersand the researchers. Performance then dropped in these groups.(LRF 36)Schmidt, Frank L., "The Relative Efficiency of Regression and Sim- Ec Psy Ympie Unit Predictor Weights in Applied Differential Psychology,"Educational and Psychological Measurement, 31 (1971), 699-714.

Used simulated data and examined studies from psychologyto determine when to use regression weights instead of unitweights. (LRF 231)

It Schmitt, Robert C., "An Application of Multiple Correlation to Pop- Ec Dem Ymulation Forecasting," Land Economics, 30 (1954), 277-279. (LRF Ex290)

It* Schneidman, Edwin S., "Pertubation and Lethality as Precursors Ju Psy Yof Suicide in a Gifted Group," Life-Threatening Behavior, 1 (Spring1971), 23-45. (LRF 372)Schoeffler, Sidney, The Failures of Economics: A Diagnostic Study. Ec Eco NCambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1955. (LRF 000)

** Schuessler, Karl F., "Parole Prediction: Its History and Status," Ec Soc YmJournal of Criminal Law, Criminology, and Police Science, 45 (1954), Ex425-431. (LRF 402, 427) Ju

** Schupack, Mark B., 'The Predictive Accuracy of Empirical Demand Ec Eco YmAnalysis," Economic Journal, 72 (1962), 550-575. ExGood study, but difficult to read. (LRF 212, 339, 356)Scott, Christopher, "Research on Moil Surveys," Journal of the Ju NR YRoyal Statistical Society, Series A, 124 (1961), 143-191. (LRF 114)Scott, Richard D., and Johnson, R.W., "Use of the Weighted ap- Ec Per Ymplication Blank in Selecting Unskilled Employees," Journal of Ap-plied Psychology, 51 (1967), 393-395. (LRF 230)Seashore, H.G., "Women Are More Predictable than Men." Pres- Ec Edu Yidential address, Division 17, American Psychological Association SgConvention, New York, Sept 1961. (LRF 285)

Sechrest, Lee, Gallimore, R., and Hersch, P.D., "Feedback and Ju Psy YmAccuracy of Clinical Predictions," Journal of Consulting Psychol-ogy, 31 (1967), 1-11. (LRF 380)Selltiz, Claire, Wrightsmon, Lawrence S., and Cook, Stuart W., NR NR NRResearch Methods in Social Relations. New York: Holt, Rinehartand Winston, 1976. (LRF 106, 108, 323)

Seo, K.K., Managerial Economics. Homewood, Ill.: Irwin, 1984. Ju Eco N(Sixth edition of the original text by Spencer). Ec

Contains good simple description of demand analysis and fore- Excasting. (LRF 72)Shelton, John P., "The Value Line Contest: A Test of Predictability Ju Fin Ym

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of Stock Price Changes," Journal of Business, 40 (1967), 251-269.(LRF 94)

** Shepard, R.N., "On Subjectively Optimum Selections among Multi- Ju NR NAttribute Alternatives," in Maynard W. Shelly and G.L. Bryan(Eds.), Human Judgments and Optimality, New York: Wiley, 1964,pp. 257-281.Good survey of the early work in judgmental forecasts. (LRF279, 559)Sherbini, AA., in book "directed by" Bertil Liander, Comparative NR Int YAnalysis for International Marketing. Boston: Allyn and Bacon,1967. (LRF 327)Sherif, Muzafer, "The Formation of a Norm in a Group Situation," Ju NR Yin M. Sherif, The Psychology of Social Norms. New York: Harperand Row, 1936, pp. 89-112. (LRF 111)

** Sherwin, C., and Isenson, R.S., "Project Hindsight," Science, 156 NR Sci Y(1967), 1571-1577. (LRF 439)

** Shiskin, Julius, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method Il Seasonal Ex NR NAdjustment Program, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Cen-sus, 1965. (LRF 173)Siegel, Sidney, Nonparametric Statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill, T NR NR1956.

According to Current Contents, this was the second most fre-quently cited work in mathematical and statistical journalsover the 1961-1972 period. (LRF 224, 352, 356, 405, 505, 506,510, 512)

**** Sigall, H. Aronson, E., and van Noose, T., "The Cooperative Sub- NR Psy Ymject: Myth or Reality?" Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,6(1970), 1-10. (LRF 109)Simon, Herbert A., Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: NR NR NRWiley, 1957. (LRF 80)Simon, Julian L., Basic Sesearch Methods in Social Science. New NR NR NRYork: Random House, 1969, (Revised 1978).(LRF 86, 115)Simons, Carolyn W., and Piliavin, JA., "Effect of Deception on Ju Psy YmReactions to a Victim," Journal of Personality and Social Psychol-ogy, 21 (1972), 56-60.Results from experiment and role play differed substantiallyin this study. (LRF 128)

** Sims, Christopher A., "Evaluating Short-term Macroeconomic Fore- Ec Eco Ycasts: The Dutch Performance," Review of Economics and Statistics,49 (1967), 225-236.Econometric models provided better forecasts than did naivemodels for 1953-1963. The econometric models were rela-tively less accurate, however, in the more recent years. (LRF408,409)Skinner, B.F., "Superstition in the Pigeon," Journal of Experimental Ju NR YPsychology, 38 (1948), 168-172. (LRF 375)

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566 References

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Slovic, Paul, Fleissner, D., and Bauman, W.S., "Analyzing the Use Ju Fin Nof Information in Investment Decision Making: A MethodologicalProposal," Journal of Business, 45 (1972), 283-301.

The longer a stockbroker has been in the business, the lessinsight he seemed to have in how he made decisions. (LRF278)

..* Smedslund, J., "The Concept of Correlation in Adults," Scandi- Ju NR Ynavian Journal of Psychology, 4(1963), 165-173. (LRF 380)

** Smyth, Di., "How Well Do Australian Economists Forecast?" Eco- Ju Eco Ynomic Record, 42 (1966), 293-311.

Judgmental forecasts underestimate positive changes twothirds of the time. Good description of turning-point errors.(LRF 353, 396)Solow, R.M., "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Ec Eco YFunction," Review of Economics and Statistics, 39 (1957), 312-320.(LRF 54, 543)Sonquist, John A., Multivariate Model Building. Survey Research Sg NR YmCenter, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 1970.A good study and extensive bibliography. (LRF 413, 417)Sonquist, John A., Baker, EL., and Morgan, J.N., Searching forStructure (Alias A/D-II/): An Approach to Analysis of SubstantialBodies of Micro-data and Documentation foro Computer Program.Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan,1974.

This is a descriptive title! (LRF 262)Sonquist, John A., and Morgan, James N., The Detection of In- Sg NR Ymteraction Effects. Monograph No. 35, Survey Research Center, Uni-versity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 1964.Presents nine examples of comparisons between regressionand cross classification. (LRF 262)Stael Von Holstein, Carl-Axel S., "An Experiment in Probabilistic Jo Wea YWeather Forecasting," Journal of Applied Meteorology, 10 (1971),635-645. (LRF 137, 143, 397)Stael Von Holstein, Carl-Axel S., "Probabilistic Forecasting: An Ju Fin YmExperiment Related to the Stock Market," Organizational Behaviorand Human Performance, 8(1972), 139-158. (LRF 94, 137, 143)Stark, Rodney, and Glock, Charles Y., "Will Ethics Be the Death Sg Soc Yof Christianity?" Transaction, 5 (June 1968), 7-14.Transaction is now called Society. (LRF 258)Stekler, Herman O., Economic Forecasting. New York: Praeger, Ec Eco Ym1970. ExStekler's articles are pasted together here with a few words. JuStekler contrasts ex ante with ex post forecast errors, compareseconometric with extrapolation and judgmental forecasts, andlooks at the growth of error over the forecast horizon. (LRF241)

** Stevens, S.S., "Measurement, Psychophysics and Utility," in NR NR N

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C. West Churchman and P. Ratoosh (Eds.), Measurement Defini-tions and Theories, New York: Wiley, 1959. (LRF 106, 391)Stone, LeRoy A. and Brosseau, James D., "Cross Validation of a Ec Edu YSystem for Predicting Training Success of Medex Trainees," Psy-chological Reports, 33 (1973), 917-918. (LRF 56)Stone, Richard, Mathematics in the Social Sciences and Other Es- Ec Eco Nsays. London: Chapman and' Hall, 1966. (LRF 200)

""' Stout, Roy G., "Developing Data to Estimate Price-Ouantity Re- Ec Mkt Ylationships," Journal of Marketing, 33 (April 1969), 34-36. (LRF212)

"'`` Strickland, Lloyd H., "Surveillance and Trust," Journal of Person- Ju Pro Ymality, 26 (1958), 200-215.Shows how people "learn" that authoritarian management issuccessful even when it is not. (LRF 375)

"" Strickler, George, "Actuarial, Naive Clinical, and Sophisticated Ec Psy YmClinical Prediction of Pathology from Figure Drawings," Journal Juof Consulting Psychology, 31 (1967), 492-494. (LRF 379)Strong, Lydia, "Sales Forecasting Comes of Age," Management NR NR YReview, 45 (1956), 687-701.The author administered a survey at the American MarketingAssociation's conference on sales forecasting. Further detailsare provided in her article, "Sales Forecasting: Problems andProspects," on pp. 790-803 of the same volume. (LRF 273,454)Stroop, J.R., "Is the Judgment of the Group Better than That of the Ju NR YmAverage Member of the Group?" Journal of Experimental Psy-chology, 15 (1932), 550-560. (LRF 135)

** Stuckert, R.P., "A Configurational Approach to Prediction," So- Ec Edu Ymciometry, 21 (1958), 225-237. (LRF 219, 230, 413, 416) Sg

** Sudman, Seymour, and Bradburn, Norman, Response Effects in Ju NR YSurveys: A Review and Synthesis. Chicago: Aldine, 1974.

Statistical analysis of 935 published studies. Interesting con-clusion: for threatening questions, it is best to use self ad-ministered questionnaires that should be filled out with noone else present, and preferably not done at work or any otherplace where there is a line of authority. (LRF 115, 116)

*** Suits, Daniel B., "The Use of Dummy Variables in Regression Ec NR NEquations," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 52(1957), 548-551. (LRF 504)Summers, David A., and Stewart, Thomas R., "Regression Models Bo Pol Yof Foreign Policy Beliefs," Proceedings of the American Psycho-logical Association, 1968, pp. 195-196. (LRF 230)

*** Summers, David A., Taliaferro, J.D., and Fletcher, Di., "Subjective Bo Pol Ymvs. Objective Description of Judgment Policy," Psychonomic Sci- Juence, 18 (1970), 249-250.Subjects report their judgment to be complex but the datarefute this view. (LRF 278)

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568 References

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Summers, Robert, "A Capital Intensive Approach to Small Sample Ec Eco YmProperties of Various Simultaneous Equation Estimators," Econo-metric°, 33 (1965), 1-41.

Compares simultaneous equations and single equations forconditional forecasts and finds small differences. (LRF 200)Szasz, Thomas S., The Second Sin. London: Routledge and Kegan NR NR NPaul, 1973.

The "second sin," is telling the truth. Society does not likethis and treats truth tellers harshly. (LRF 433)

ink* Taft, R., "The Ability to Judge People," Psychologica/ Bulletin, Ju Psy Ym52 (1955), 1-28.A literature review with 81 references, updated by Sarbin,Taft, and Bailey (1960). (LRF 93)it Taylor, D.W., Berry, P.C., and Block, CH., "Does Group Partici- Ju NR Ympotion When Using Brainstorming Facilitate or Inhibit CreativeThinking?" Administrative Science Quarterly, 3 (1958), 23-47.(LRF 501)Taylor, Frederick W., The Principles of Scientific Management. New NR NR NRYork: Harper and Brothers, 1911. (LRF 275)Terry, Roger L., "Role Playing and the Effects of Expectancy Con- Ju NR Yfirmation," Journal of Social Psychology, 94 (1974), 291-292.Not enough of a description. (LRF 128)

** Tessier, Thomas H., and Armstrong, J. Scott, "Improving Current Ec Mkt YmSales Estimates with Econometric Methods," Wharton Working Pa-per, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA. 1977. (LRF 234,236, 453, 454)Theil, Henri, Economic Forecasts and Policy. Amsterdam, North- Ec Eco NRHolland, 1958 (Revised 1965). (LRF 349)Theil, Henri, Applied Economic Forecasting. Chicago: Rand Mc- Ec Eco NRNally, 1966. (LRF 241, 344, 349)

** Theil, Henri and Goldberger, AS., "On Pure and Mixed Statistical Ec Eco YEstimation in Economics," International Economic Review, 2 (1961),65-78. (LRF 203)

it* Thomas, EJ., and Fink, C.F., "Models of Group Problem Solving," Ju NR YmJournal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 63 (1961), 53-63.(LRF 120)

Thompson, Philip D., Numerical Weather Analysis and Prediction, NR Wea NRNew York: Macmillan, 1961. (LRF 59)

*** Thorndike, R.L., "The Effect of Discussion upon the Correctness of Ju NR YGroup Decisions When the Factor of a Majority Influence Is Al-lowed For," Journal of Social Psychology, 9 (1938), 343-362.Groups find it easier to tolerate being wrong than to toleratedifferences of opinions among group members. (LRF 136, 139)Timmons, William M., "Can the Product Superiority of Discussers Ju Soc YmBe Attributed to Averaging or Majority Influences?" Journal ofSocial Psychology, 15 (1942), 23-32.

*

References 569

M F E*

Discussion does, on occasion, lead to improvements over mereaveraging. (LRF 120)Tobias, Sigmund, and Carlson, James E., "Brief Report: Bartlett's Ec NR YmTest of Sphericity and Chance Findings in Factor Analysis," Mul-tivariate Behavioral Research, 4 (1969), 375-377. (LRF 518)

** Tobin, James, "On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions Ju Mkt Ymand Attitudes," Review of Economics and Statistics, 41 (1959),1-11. (LRF 81)

** Torfin, Garry P., and Hoffmann, T.R., "Simulation Tests of Some Ex NR YmForecasting Techniques," Production and Inventory Management,9 No. 2 (1968), 71-78. (LRF 170,171,495)Trigg, D.W. and Leach, AG., "Exponential Smoothing with an Ex NR YmAdaptive Response Rate." Operational Research Quarterly, 18(1967), 53-59. (LRF 171)Tukey, J.W., "The Future of Data Analysis," Annals of Mathe- NR NR NRmatical Statistics, 33 (1962), 1-67. (LRF 1, 162,334)

** Turing, A.M., "Computing Machinery and Intelligence," Mind, 59 T NR N(1950), 433-460. (LRF 313)Turner, John, "A Survey of Forecasting Practices," in David Ashton NR NR Yand Leslie Simister (Eds.), The Role of forecasting in CorporatePlanning. London: Staples Press, 1970.Survey of how firms forecast in the United States and inBritain. For long-range forecasting, subjective methods aremost common, next extrapolation, then econometric methods.(LRF 425)

*** Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, Daniel, "Belief in the Law of Small Ju NR YNumbers," Psychological Bulletin, 76 (1971), 105-110.Concludes that even trained statisticians may have a poorintuitive feel for certain statistical phenomena. (LRF 89, 90,356, 479, 4861

** Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, Daniel, "Availability: A Heuristic Ju NR Yfor Judging Frequency and Probability," Cognitive Psychology, 5(1973), 207-232. (LRF 105)Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, Daniel, "Judgment Under Uncer- Ju NR Ytainty: Heuristics and Biases," Science, 185 (1974), 1124-1131. TA highly influential paper. According to the Social SciencesCitation Index, it is cited, on average, over 50 times per year.It is reprinted in KAHNEMAN, SLOVIC, and TVERSKYI 1982]. (LRF 88,89).

(Jena, Hiroya, and Tsurumi, Hiroki, "A Dynamic Supply and De- Ec Eco Ymand Model of the United States Automobile Industry, Togetherwith a Simulation Experiment," in Lawrence R. Klein (Ed.), Essaysin Industrial Econometrics, Vol. 1, Economics Research Unit, Whar-ton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, 1969.This essay is written mostly in equations and numbers. (LRF226, 488, 490)

*

570

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References

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It*U.S. National Resources Committee, Patterns of Resource Use (pre-liminary edition for technical criticism). Washington, D.C.: U.S.

EcT

Eco Y

Government Printing Office, 1938. (LRF 338)Un, Noel D., "Forecasting: A Hybrid Approach," Omega, 5(1977), Ec Pro Ym463-472.

Box-Jenkins forecasts were superior to econometric forecastswith respect to MAPE (4.8 vs. 8.0). On the other hand, thesystematic error was larger for Box-Jenkins forecasts thanfor econometric forecasts (APE of +4.0 vs. -1.2). Overall,this study was classified as a tie. (LRF 408)

** Vaccara, Beatrice N., "An Input-Output Method for Long-Range Ex Eco YmEconomic Projections," Survey of Current Business, 51 (July 1971), Sg47-56.Looks at the value of input-output vs. an extrapolation methodof forecasting (slight advantage to the I-0 method). (LRF 265,266)Van de Ven, Andrew H., "Group Decision Making and Effective- Ju Edu Yness," Organization and Administrative Sciences, 5 (Fall 1974),1-110. (LRF 119, 120, 123, 124)Vandome, Peter, "Econometric Forecasting for the United King- Ec Eco Ymdam," Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Economics andStatistics, 25 (1963). 239-281. (LRF 291, 292, 396, 406, 408)Velikovsky, Immanuel, Worlds In Collision. New York: Macmillan, NR NR NR1950. (LRF 66, 67)

Velikovsky, Immanuel, Earth in Upheaval. Garden City: Double- NR NR NRday, 1955. (LRF 66, 67)

Wade, Nicholas, "IQ and Heredity: Suspicion of Fraud Beclouds T Psy NClassic Experiment," Science, 194 (1976), 916-919. (LRF 312,435)Wagle, B., Rappoport, J.O.G.H., and Downes, V.A., "A Program Mkt Ymfor Short-Term Sales Forecasting," The Statistician, 18 (1968),141-147.

References 571

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il

Different extrapolation methods were used to provide fore-casts of monthly sales for 20 products. Not much differencewas found in the accuracy of the extrapolations (includingone that was done by hand). Looks like a good study, but thewrite-up is incomplete. (LRF 177)Walker, HE., "The Value of Human Judgment," Industrial Mar- Ju NR Y

keting Research Association Journal, 6 (May 1970), 71-74. (LRF145, 170)Wallace, Henry A., "What is in the Corn Judge's Mind?" Journal Bo Agr Yof the American Society of Agronomy, 15 ( 1923 ), 300-304. (LRF278)Ward, J.H., Jr., An Application of Linear and Curvilinear Joint Ec Edu YmFunctional Regression in Psychological Prediction, Research Bul-letin. Air Force Personnel and Training Research Center. LacklandAir Force Base, San Antonio, Tex., 1954.There is a description of this study in Wiggins (1973, pp.74-77). (LRF 202, 342)Ward, William C., and Jenkins, Herbert M., "The Display of In- Ju NR Ymformation and the Judgment of Contingency," Canadian Journalof Psychology, 19 ( 1965), 231-241. (LRF 381)Wason, P.C., "On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Con- Ju NR Ymceptual Task," Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12(1960), 129-140.Subjects who made quick decisions were wrong more oftenthan those who gathered more data before making a decision.(LRF 52, 377)

*le Wason, P.C., "On the Failure to Eliminate Hypothesesa Second Jo NR YmLook," in P.C. Wason and P. N. Johnson-Laird (Eds.), Thinkingand Reasoning. Baltimore: Penguin Books, 1968a, pp. 165-174.(LRF 52, 377)

*** Wason, P.C., "Reasoning about a Rule," Quarterly Journal of Ex- Ju NR Ymperimental Psychology, 20 ( 1968b), 273-281.An alternate to "2, 4, 6" problem known as: the "A-D-4-7"problem. Discouraging finding; it did not help to tell peopleto look for disconfirming evidence. (LRF 52, 378)Wason, P.C., "Regression in Reasoning?" British Journal of Psy- Jo Psy Ymchology, 60 (1969), 471-480.More on Wason (1968b) and on how to improve subject's useof data. (LRF 378)Webb, Eugene J., et al., Unobtrusive Measures: Non-reactive Re- NR NR NRsearch in the Social Sciences. Chicago: Rand McNally, 1973. (LRF65, 207)Webster, Edward C., Decision Making in the Employment Interview. Ju Per Y

Montreal, Quebec: Eagle, 1964.The employment interview is a search for negative evidence.(LRF 88)

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Weld, L.D.H., "The Value of the Multiple Correlation Method in Ec Mkt Y

Determining Sales Potentials," Journal of Marketing, 3 (1939),389-393.Weld says that he wants the credit for being the first personto use the multiple correlation method t,o identify sales po-tentials. Advocates an exploratory rather than a theoreticaluse of regression. (LRF 235)Wellman, H.R., "The Distribution of Selling Effort among Geo-graphical Areas," Journal of Marketing, 3 (January 1939), 225-239.

Ec Mkt Y

(LRF 235)** Welty, Gordon, "Problems of Selecting Experts for Delphi Exer-

cises," Academy of Management Journal, 15 (March 1972),121-124. (LRF 118)

Ju Soc Ym

Welty, Gordon, "The Necessity, Sufficiency and Desirability of Ju NR NExperts as Value Forecasters," in Werner Leinfellner and EckehartKóhler (Eds.), Developments in the Methodology of Social Science.Boston: Reidel, 1974, pp. 363-379. (LRF 117)

*** Wesman, AG., and Bennett, G.K., "Multiple Regression vs. Simple Ec Edu YmAddition of Scores in Prediction of College Grades," Educationaland Psychological Measurement, 19 (1959), 243-246. (LRF 230)

Westfall, Richard, "Newton and the Fudge Factor," Science, 179 T NR NR(1973), 751-758. (LRF 289)Westoff, Charles F., "Fertility through Twenty Years of Marriage: Ec Soc YA Study in Predictive Possibilities," American Sociological Review,23 (1958), 549-556.How well can you forecast the number of children who willbe born in the first 20 years of marriage by asking engagedcouples? Fairly well for those who use family planning-otherwise poorly. (LRF 82)

*** Wexley, Kenneth, Singh, J.P., and Yukl, G.A., "Subordinate Per-sonality as a Moderator of the Effects of Participation in Three

1 Per Ym

Types of Appraisal Interviews," Journal of Applied Psychology, 58(1973), 54-59. (LRF 128)

** Wheelwright, Steven C., and Clarke, Darral, G., "Corporate Fore-casting Promise and Reality," Harvard Business Review, 76 (No-vemberDecember 1976), 40 seq.

NR Eco Y

This survey received only a 25% response rate, and the reportis incomplete, yet what is there is interesting. (LRF 25,389,457)

* Wherry, R.J., "A New Formula for Predicting the Shrinkage of the T NR NRCoefficient of Multiple Correlation," Annals of Mathematical Sta-tistics, 2 (1931), 440-457. (LRF 351)

** Whitbeck, Volkert S., and Kisor, M., Jr., "A New Tool in Investment Ec Fin Y

Decision-Making," Financial Analysts Journal, (MayJune, 1963),55-62.Uses regression analysis to predict price/earnings ratios for135 stocks. Finds that undervalued stocks in one cross section

*

*

*

pp. 386-375.Study of football forecasts, (LRF 95,136, 137)

References

M F

573

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did better in the next time period and overvalued stocks didworse. Cragg and Malkiel (1970) were unable to replicate thefindings. (LRF 529)

" Wicker, A.W., "An Examination of the 'Other Variables' Expla-nation of Attitude-Behavior Inconsistency," Journal of Personalityand Social Psychology 19 (1971), 18-30. (LRF 83)

Ju Psy N

*** Wiggins, Jerry S., Personality and Prediction: Principles of Per-sonality Assessment. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1973.

EcEx

This book provides a thorough treatment of forecasting inpsychology. (LRF 571)

Ju

* Wiggins, Nancy, and Hoffman, Pi., "Three Models of Clinical Ju Psy YmJudgment," Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 73 (1968), 70-77.Goldberg (1968a) comments on this study. (LRF 278)

*** Wiggins, Nancy, and Kohen, E., "Man vs. Model of Man Revisited: Bo Edu YmThe Forecasting of Graduate School Success," Journal of Person-ality and Social Psychology, 19 (1971), 100-106. (LRF 137,281,283)

Ju

** Wiginton, John C., "MSAE Estimation: An Alternative Approach to Ec NR YmRegression Analysis for Economic Forecasting Applications," Ap-plied Economics, 4 (1972), 11-21.MSAE stands for "minimizing the sum of absolute errors."Wiginton discusses the history of MSAE since 1890 and ex-amines evidence on MSAE versus least squares estimates.(LRF 221)

* Williams, John D., and Linden, Alfred C., "Setwise Regression Ec NR NRAnalysisA Stepwise Procedure for Sets of Variables," Educa-tional and Psychological Measurement, 31 (1971), 747-748. (LRF205)

* Williams, Philip, Jr., "The Use of Confidence Factors in Forecast-ing," Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 32 (1951),279-281.

Ju Wea Y

See Raiffa (1969) for a summary. (LRF 141)*** Williams, W.H. and Goodman, ML., "A Simple Method for the Ex Mkt Y

Construction of Empirical Confidence Limits for Economic Fore-casts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66 (1971),752-754. (LRF 186, 338, 343)

** Willis, Richard H., and Willis, YA., "Role Playing vs. Deception: Ju Psy YAn Experimental Cornparison," Journal of Personality and SocialPsychology, 16 (1970), 472-477. (LRF 127)

* Willoughby, R.R. and Cougan, M., "The Correlation between In-telligence and Fertility," Human Biology, 12 (1940), 114-119. (LRF

NR NR Ym

322)*** Winkler, Robert L., 'The Quantification of Judgment: Some Ex-

perimental Results," in Proceedings of the American StatisticalJu Soc Ym

Association; Business and Economics Statistics Section, 1967a,

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574 References

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*** Winkler, Robert L., "Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Ju Soc YmResults," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66 (1971),675-685.Still more on football forecasts. (LRF 95, 136, 139).Winkler, Robert L. and Murphy, Allan H., "Evaluation of Subjective Ju Wea YPrecipitation Probability Forecasts," Proceedings of the First Na-tional Conference on Statistical Meteorology. Boston, 1968, pp.148-157. (LRF 395, 397, 400)Winters, Peter R., "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Ex Mkt YMoving Averages," Management Science, 6 (1960), 324-342.(OF 161, 165, 171, 173, 450, 494)Wise, George, "The Accuracy of Technological Forecasts, Ju Nr Y1890-1940," Futures, 8 (1976), 411-419.Examines and codes 1556 predictions made publicly by Amer-icans between 1890 and 1940. (LRF 95)Wiseman, Frederick, "Methodological Bias in Public Opinion Sur- Jo Soc Ymveys," Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Spring 1972a), 105-108.Examines response bias in mail vs. telephone vs. personalinterviews. (LRF 115)

** Wiseman, Frederick, "Methodological Considerations in Segmen- Ju Mkt Ytation Studies," in Fred C. AlIvine (Ed.), Combined Proceedings.Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1972b, pp. 306-311.(LRF 342)

*** Wold, Herman, and Jureen, Lars, Demand Analysis: A Study in Ec Eco NREconometrics, New York, Wiley, 1953. (LRF 75, 234)Wolfe, Harry D., Business Forecasting Methods. New York: Holt, NR Eco NRRinehart and Winston, 1966. (LRF 288)Worswick, G.D.N., "Preston, R.S., The Wharton Annual and In- Ec Eco Ndustry Forecasting Model," Journal of Economic Literature, 12 (1974),117-118.(LRF 403)

Yon, Chiou-Shuang, Introduction to Input-Output Economics. New Sg Eco NYork: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1969. (LRF 265)Yinon, Yoe!: Shoham, Varda, and Lewis, Tirtza, "Risky-Shift in a Ju NR YReal vs. Role-Played Situation," Journal of Social Psychology, 93(1974), 137-138. (LRF 128)

*** Yntema, D.B., and Torgerson, W.S., "Man-Computer Cooperation Bo NR Yin Decisions Requiring Common Sense," IRE Transactions of the JuProfessional Group on Human Factors in Electronics, 1961, Re-printed in Ward, Edwards, and Amos Tversky (Eds.), Decision Mak-ing. Baltimore: Penguin Books, 1967, pp. 300-314. (LRF 279, 283)

Zajonc, Robert B., Social Psychology: An Experimental Approach. Ju NR NRBelmont, Calif.: Brooks/Cole Publishing, 1967. (LRF 000)Zarnowitz, Victor, An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts. Ex Eco YrnNational Bureau of Economic Research, Occasional Paper No. 104, JuNew York, 1967. (LRF 137, 396, 399)

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* Zarnowitz, Victor, "Prediction and Forecasting, Economic," Inter-national Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 12 ( 1968), 425-439.(LRF 207, 208, 265)

* Zimbardo, Philip, "The Pathology of Imprisonment," Society (April1972), 4-8. (LRF 125)

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