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Refining, Transportation & Marketing (RTM) and Petrochemicals (RTM), and Petrochemicals Paulo Roberto Costa Downstream Director 26th October , 2011 1
Transcript
Page 1: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Refining, Transportation & Marketing (RTM) and Petrochemicals(RTM), and Petrochemicals

Paulo Roberto CostaDownstream Director

26th October, 2011,

1

Page 2: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

DISCLAIMER

This presentation may contain forward-looking Cautionary statement for U.S. investors:statements. Such statements reflect only theexpectations of the Company's managementregarding the future conditions of the economy,the industry, the performance and financialresults of the Company, among other factors.

The United States Securities and ExchangeCommission permits oil and gas companies,in their filings with the SEC, to discloseproved reserves that a company has

y

results of the Company, among other factors.Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect","forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek","should", along with similar expressions, areused to identify such statements. Thesepredictions evidently involve risks and

proved reserves that a company hasdemonstrated by actual production orconclusive formation tests to be economicallyand legally viable under existing economicand operating conditions. We use certain

predictions evidently involve risks anduncertainties, whether foreseen or not by theCompany. Consequently, these statements donot represent assurance of future results of theCompany. Therefore, the Company's future

terms in this presentation, such asdiscoveries, that the SEC’s guidelines strictlyprohibit us from including in filings with theSEC.

results of operations may differ from currentexpectations, and readers must not base theirexpectations solely on the information presentedherein. The Company is not obliged to updatethe presentation and forward-looking statementsp gin light of new information or futuredevelopments. Amounts informed for the year2011 and upcoming years are either estimatesor targets.

2

Page 3: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

BUSINESS MODELOperating as an integrated balanced oil company, dominant in Brazil

Exploration & Production

• Focus on production in deep and ultra‐deep waters;

D

• Licensed blocks guarantee access to reserves and economies of scale;

• New exploratory frontier, adjacent to existing operations.

Downstream

• Dominant position in a growing market, far from other refining centers;

Gas and Power

•Balance and integration between production, refining and demand.

• Gas infrastructure develeped for processand and transfer of gas;Gas infrastructure develeped for processand and transfer of gas;

• Complete flexibility to consume domestic and imported gas.

Biofuels

• High productivitiy of Brazilian ethanol;

• Large areas of available unused agricultural land;

• Large consumer market, with fleet and distribution in place.

3

Large consumer market, with fleet and distribution in place.

Page 4: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Proved Reserves  – SPE criteria

RESERVES AND RECOVERABLE VOLUMESRapid growth in reserves from discoveries in deep waters 

30.000

Million boe

25.000

15 000

20.000

Whales Park

Pre‐salt: Lula and Cernambi 15,28 Bi boe

10.000

15.000

Roncador

Whales Park, Mexilhão 

5.000Garoupa

Namorado

Marlim

Guaricema

0

pCarmópolis

4

Onshore 0‐300 m 300‐1500 m > 1500 m Pre‐salt's Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights

* Lula/Cernambi, Iara, Guará and Whales Park, ranging from 8.1 to 9.6 Billion boe

*

Page 5: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

PRODUCTIONPetrobras history is to grow production by expanding into new frontiers

2000Deep and ultra‐deep water

2.0048,2% 8,2% p.yp.y. in the last  30 years. in the last  30 years

42749

1.601

800

1200

1600 Shallow WaterOnshore 1.271

653

bpd

bpd

106 211 230 21475

400 292 189

42

0

400

1980 1990 2000 2010

181

Mil 

Mil 

1980 1990 2000 2010

• 123 offshore units (45 floating e 78 fixed)

FPSO Cidade de Santos

• 123 offshore units (45 floating e 78 fixed)

• 25 new units installed in the last 5 years

FPSO Cidade de  Angra dos ReisP‐56 P‐57FPSO Cidade de  Santos

5

Page 6: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

PRODUCTIONWith access to abundant reserves, Petrobras can more than double production

1 120

246142

6,418

618

1.120

180

125

3,993

2,772+ 35 Systems

2 575

321 317 334 435

618

111 132 14414199 96

93 962,386 2,516

oe/day

2,772

845Transfer of Rights

+10 Post‐Salt Projects

+8 Pre‐Salt Projects

+1 Transfer of Rights

2,575

3,070

4,910

1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100 

2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

1,148543

Pre-Salt’000

 b Transfer of Rights13

Added Capacity

Oil: 2,300,000 bpd

2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

Oil Production‐ Brazil Natural Gas Production ‐ Brazil Oil Production ‐ International Natural Gas Production ‐ International

• Pre‐salt and Transfer of Rights will represent 69% of the additional capacity up to 2020;

• Pre‐Salt participation in the total production will enhance from the current 2% to 18% in 2015 and 40.5% in 2020.

6Note: Does not include Non‐Consolidated International Production.

Page 7: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

MONETIZING THE RESERVESBrazilian market is an attractive and sustainable way to monetize part of Petrobras reserves

A GROWING MARKET IN BRAZIL CREATES DOWNSTREAM A GROWING MARKET IN BRAZIL CREATES DOWNSTREAM OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES……

Petroleum Consumption(per capita)

27.1

25.0

21.7

Growthreserves

18

Source: BP Statistical ReviewNote:1. Includes France, Germany, Italy and the UK

14.8 15.3

3.7

0.6 0.3

16.0

12.4

4.5

1.40.8

12.6

10.7

4.6

2.31.0

US Japan OECD Brazil China India

1980 2000 2009

OECD1

Margins and

Distance

Allocation

18

Productivity of existing refineries – 2020 Productivity of new refineries – 2020

PRODUCTSNew refineries will produce higher value‐added oil products

Margins and Refining Profile

Sustainable

• Lead-Times• Tanks• Inventories• Ships

21%

4%7%

10%

Light

36%

6%

9%

21%

Medium Distillated

43%

5%

38%

Others

Fuel Oil

Special

Naphtha

LPG

Gasoline

Jet Fuel

Diesel

Intermediary

4%

15%

19%

4%

11%

15%

65%

15%

50%

Productivity of existing refineries  2020

LightMedium Distillated Others

Productivity of new refineries  2020Sustainable Competitive Advantage

8

Crude freightProduct freight

40

• Increase in global demand for medium‐distillated products tends to lead to an increase in price versus the gasoline price.

D t fit bilit

Return and Risks

-3-2-101234567

-3-2-101234567

07 0806 1009

Competitors Range

1 1

1

1

6

PBR

Downstream Net Profit Margin (%)

Downstream profitability…

Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown per Segment (US$ bn) 1

25.0

35.4

19.3

5.2

11.0

0.8

1.4

1.10.90.5

0.2

1.1

7

50

Source: Reuters KnowledgeNet Profit Margin = Net Profit / Total RevenueCompetitors: XOM (US), XOM (non-US), CVX, RDS, COP

TO COME-1.6-0.8-0.2

2007 2008 2009 1S09 1S10

E&P Downstream Distribuition G&E International

Page 8: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Growth Potential

8

Page 9: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

During recent years, the Demand growth in Brazil has increased its’ speed when compared with GDP growth …

1211-20 Demand Forecast11-20 GDP ForecastGDP and Demand growth rates (yearly)

6

8

10 Historical GDP

Historical Demand

5 5

2

4

6 5,5

4,5

4,1

3,8

4

‐2

0LowerGDP

HigherGDP

44

‐420032002 2011*201020092008200720062005200420012000

Percentage points (p.p.) of Demand growth above GDP growth Forecast

‐2

0

2

‐2

0

2

1 0-0,3

Historical average p.p. differenceHistorical p.p. difference

9‐6

‐4

2011*20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000‐6

‐4

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 2011*

-1,00,3LowerGDP

HigherGDP

Page 10: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

JET FUEL MARKETA sharp growth in the air transportation industry has been observed in recent years

Number of passengers carried - air transportation (thousand) Seats / Km available

12.000

13.000

9.000

10.000

12%

10.000

11.000 +12%a.a.

7.000

8.000+12%a.a.

8.000

9.000

5 000

6.000

7.000

6.000

7.000

jan 12jan 11jan 10jan 09jan 08jan 074.000

5.000

jan 10jan 09jan 08jan 07 jan 12jan 11

In 2010, for the first time in our history, the number of travels interstate by plane exceeded the travels by bus

10

p y

Source: ANAC

Page 11: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

AIR TRANSPORTATION The significant reduction in the airline tickets prices associated with the expansion of income in Brazil led to an accelerated growth in the sectorof income in Brazil led to an accelerated growth in the sector

Yield Revenue R$ (deflated by IPCA)Economic indicator that expresses the unit revenue earned by

1,1 R$ 2011

Economic indicator that expresses the unit revenue earned by airlines per each paying passenger per kilometer in Brazil

0,8

0,9

1,0

0 5

0,6

0,7-62%

0 2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,2200420032002 2005 2007 20122006 2008 2009 2010 2011

11

Source: ANAC http://www2.anac.gov.br/estatistica/tarifasaereas/

Page 12: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

CONCENTRATED TRANSPORT MATRIXThe Brazilian transportation matrix strongly depends on trucks

81%

46%

11%

11%

8%

43%Canada

Russia

46%

43%

11%

53% 4%

43%

Australia

Canada

43%

37%

25%

13%50%

32%

China

USA

Average Trucks Fleet Age (y)Average Trucks Fleet Age (y)25% 17%Brazil 58%

Trucks Maritime and OthersTrains BrazilBrazil

SpainSpain

USAUSA

GermanyGermany

EnglandEngland

12Sources: Plano Nacional de Logística e Transportes 2010 (PNLT), Ministério dos Transportes, Anuário do transporte de carga and Eurostat - 2007

EnglandEngland

Page 13: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

DIESEL DEMANDThe diesel demand has also increased sharply

... not only based on recovery of the industrial activity, ...

... but also due to agricultural activity growth in Brazil over time

170

180

+52%140

145

Index - Industrial Output

140

150

160+52%

132

125

130

135

110

120

130

GDP110

115

120125

90

100

110

1009080706050403020100

Agriculture GDPGDP

104100

105

110

jan 2011jan 2010jan 2009jan 2008

1Q1

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

1Q0

The cargo transportation matrix in Brazil is highly dependent upon trucks, with th th i i ti it b ti di l d d

jan 2011jan 2010jan 2009jan 2008

13

the growth in economic activity boosting diesel demand.

Page 14: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

MIDDLE DISTILLATE DEMAND EVOLUTIONStrong diesel and jet fuel consumption growth in Brazil have been observed following the economic growth…

+9%8,7%4,1%

Diesel Sales (2006 to 2011/jun)

5,5%

Jan‐Jun 11Jan‐Jun 10

• The 1S2011 sales exceeded expected growth, keeping a faster-

Jan‐Jun 1120102009200820072006

13,4%

expected growth, keeping a fasterthan-GDP growth.

Jet Sales (2006 to 2011/jun)

+17%9,7%

Jan‐Jun 11Jan‐Jun 10• The same higher-than-GDP

1420102007 Jan‐Jun 1120082006 2009

acceleration was verified during first semester 2011.

Page 15: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

HIGH GROWTH POTENTIALLow per capita consumption supports demand growth in developing countries

Total Oil Consumption Per capita consumptionPer capita consumption

27,125,0

22,3201020001980

125

130Barrels per year(Index =100 in 2002)

15,314,812 4

16,0

12 8

2010

110

115

120

4,5

12,4

4 9

9,9

12,8

100

105

110

0,6

3,7 1,4 2,54,9

90

95

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

OEDCWorldBrazilUS

Source: BP Statistical Review 2011

OECD

15

Page 16: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

POTENTIAL INCREASE OF OIL PRODUCTS CONSUMPTIONBrazil still has a low motorization rate

Licenses for new vehicles

17,4 18,0 20002010

6,0

11,8

5 0 4 0

20102015

ion of units

3,72,6 2,7 2,1 1,5 0,8

5,03,2 2,7 2,2

3,5 3,04,0

United States Japan Germany France Italy China Brazil India

Mill

United States Japan Germany France Italy China Brazil India

Number of vehicles per 1000 habitants814

592 545 599688 2010

2015

Number of vehicles per 1000 habitants

47153

16

208

16

United States Japan Germany France Italy China Brazil India

Page 17: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

GROWTH DEMANDEconomic growth and improved living standards will lead to a significant increase in oil products demand in Brazilproducts demand in Brazil

OthersFuel oil

3.095

+3,8% p.y.

(GDP: 4,1% p.y.)Fuel oilGasolineMiddle destilates

128792

9282.147

2.643

1 814

402

507

567

98

124

128

602 593

696

dbp

d

1.814 1.776

708 761 9511.219 1.472

315 314402189 108

Thou

sand

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

17Sourse: Petrobras (Plano Estratégico 2020)

Page 18: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

DOWNSTREAM EXPANSIONReduced dependence on imports of oil products

’000 bpdIncrease in import levels will lead to higher

logistical costs...... and to high levels of exposure to

international supply

2006 2007 2008 2011E2009 2010Net Imports as a percentage of total demand (%)*

000 bpd g te at o a supp y

FranceBrazil (2010)

USA

SpainJapanChina

Germany

Brazil (2020)**Indonesia

MexicoSpain

( )

18* Source: IEA – 2010 World Energy Statistics** Without considering Capacity Expansion

Page 19: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

REGIONAL GROWTHIn the last decade the growth has been and will be higher in the North, Northeast and Mid t i f B il

Demand 2001-2010 Demand 2010-2015Mid‐west regions of Brazil

3,1% 7634,9% 968

579763

1,4% 1.384 1.6753,9%

1.3841.224

19

Page 20: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

kk

… increasing the need for new capacities in these regions

Market in 2015Market in 2010

552 968299

-416-464

763

DeficitDemandCapacity DeficitDemandCapacity

1.652 1.6751.466

DeficitDemandCapacity

Deficit

-23

DemandCapacity

821.384

SuperavitDemandCapacity

• Increase in demand in the Central‐West, Northeast, and North explains the concentration of investments in the Northeast;

DeficitDemandCapacitySuperavitDemandCapacity

20

Northeast;

• Tax incentives combined with environmental restrictions also contribute to the concentration in the region.

Page 21: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

INTEGRATION AND BALANCEConstruction of new refineries intended to meet Brazilian demand

5000

PREMIUM I(2nd phase)300,000 bpd

(2019)

Thous bpd4,910

3000

4000 COMPERJ(2nd phase)165,000 bpd

(2018)

2,643 3,095

3,3273,2173,070

2000

Abreu e Lima

COMPERJ(1st phase)165,000 bpd

(2013)

PREMIUM I

PREMIUM II300,000 bpd

(2017)

2,536

1,641

2,2052,004

1,3931,798

1,036

2,1471,814

1,323

0

1000

1980 2000 2010 2015 2020

Abreu e LimaRefinery (RNE)230,000 bpd

(2012)

PREMIUM I(1st phase)300,000 bpd

(2016)181

... ... ... ...1980 2000 2010 2015 2020

Oil and NGL Production ‐ Brazil Total crude oil processed – Brazil Oil Products Market (2 scenarios)

• No new refineries built since 1980• Demand now exceeds refining capacity, with demand growing 20% last two years and growing 

21

Page 22: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Refining Profile and Margins

22

Page 23: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

REFINING MARGINSConservative assumptions compared to historical data and consultants’ forecast

Crack 321* and 2011 - 2020 average forecast Light-Heavy* and 2011 - 2020 average forecast

(US$/bbl)

404550 50

45PBR RangeConsultants Range(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)

70

80 PBR RangeConsultants Range

25303540

40

50

60

10152025

10,6 Avg

Avg

20

30

40

27

05

10,

0

10

jan 12jan 11jan 10jan 09jan 08jan 07jan 06

The forecasts indicate an average Crack 321 Spread of US$ 8 5/ bbl and an

* (Unleaded USG + N2 Diesel USG)/2 – Fuel Oil 3% USG* (Unleaded USG*2 + N2 Diesel USG)/3 - Brent

23

The forecasts indicate an average Crack 321 Spread of US$ 8,5/ bbl and an average Light-Heavy differential of US$ 21,8 / bbl between 2011-2020.

Consultants’ forecasts include: Cera (3 Scenarios), Pira (3 Scenarios) and Woodmackenzie

Page 24: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

REFINING MARGINSMargins can have large amplitude according to the type of processed oil and product i ldyields

USG LLS CrackingPBR Downstream Margin

$/bbl (US$ of 2010)

30USG Maya CokingUSG LLS Cracking

NWE Brent CrackingNWE Brent ToppingPBR Downstream Margin

20

25

19

1511

-8

5

10

6+6

5

0USG Maya

PBR Downstream

USG LLS Cracking

24

-5201020092008200720062005200420032002

Source: Margens internacionais - PIRA

yCokingMargin

g

Page 25: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

PETROBRAS X MAYA COKINGComparison shows that the effect of the different  oil processed and the average produtivity explain the deviation of our margins in relation to Maya Cokingprodutivity explain the deviation of our margins in relation to Maya Coking

$/bbl

Petrobras vs. Maya Coking (average 2002-2010)

19 US$/bbl 2010 

3

19

5

11

Maya CokingMargin

Raw material cost effect

Produtivityeffect

Petrobras Margin

25

Page 26: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

CONVERSIONNew refineries will have significant higher conversion than existing refineries , allowing l t f t i lless costs of raw material 

Average Cost of Oil (2020)Convertion Capacity/ Destilation Capacity

31% 26%50

60

7064%

68%65%

HCCFCCCoker

Average Cost of Oil (2020)

-5,8

(US$/bbl)

10% 65%

31% 26%

30

40

50

37%-2,3

27%

0

10

20 38%36%

PREMIUMExistent Refineries

Brent

PREMIUMCOMPERJRNEExisting Refineries

(2010)

26

Page 27: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

PRODUCTSNew refineries will produce higher value‐added oil products

65%Productivity of existing refineries – 2020 Productivity of new refineries – 2020

36%

43%50%

21%

36%

21%38% 19%15%

4%7%

10%

6%

9%

5%

4%

15%4%

11%

15%

15%

LightMedium Distillated Others

Fuel OilNaphthaGasolineDiesel

LightMedium Distillated Others

SpecialLPGJet Fuel Intermediary

• Increase in global demand for medium‐distillated products tends to lead to an increase in price versus the li i

27

gasoline price.

Page 28: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

PRICES OF DISTILLATESIn recent years, we have been approximating to the import parity

Distillates had a prize in the last 8 years of US$/bbl in relation to the U S Gulf prices

8,0 8,0US$/bbl (actual value)

Distillates had a prize in the last 8 years of US$/bbl in relation to the U.S. Gulf prices, similar to cost freight + internalization

2002

-201

0 90,088,1

82 087,3

93,9

85,8

Aver

age

2 82,0

Jet FuelDieselPBRUSUSGC USGC PBRUS

… and these are the products that the new refineries will be focus

28

Page 29: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION AT PREMIUM REFINERIES 

Lower refining costs due to design quality and scale

Economies of scale and new implementation strategies to reduce Capex, including:

• Design competition based on the lowest final cost

• Selection of UOP ‐ international company with extensive refining experience Age (years)

Current downstream cost(US$ / bbl in 2010)

refining experience

• Single design integrating all the refinery on‐site and off‐site

• Designer involved from conceptual design to technical assistance in the start up

• Scale economies (RPRE: 300kbpd modules)

Ma im m standardi ation of eq ipments specification• Maximum standardization of equipments specification

• Scheduling the construction stage allowing long‐term planning for equipment suppliers

• Reuse of the executive project allowing the incorporation of lessons learned Scale (’000 bpd)

29

Page 30: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

FACTORS THAT WILL IMPACT THE COST OF THE PREMIUM REFINERIESProject under development already allows us to evaluate some optimizations

Scope Optimized RNESTRPRE

(projetct under development)Expected Effects

weight/capac.

Units of Diesel HDT 6 reactors 1 reactors

weight/capac.

80% less

Less Interconnectionsweight/capac.

Units of Diesel HDT 2 forno 1 forno

weight/capac.

60% less

Less Interconnections

L i t ti /

Coke Units 6 tambours 4 tambours

Less: interconnection / platforms of access / instruments / valves

etc.

Tankage55 tankes

for 230 kbpd

70 tankes

for 600 kbpdNot available

100+ bridges of Elimination of the Pipelines

100+ bridges of

100mPipe-rack bridges and increased

productivity

Electric System Interconnection

Underground structure

Cable-rack

( i l)

Less excavation, less impact on rainfall in the

3030

Interconnection structure (aerial)p

construction

Page 31: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Market Location

31

Page 32: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

LOGISTICSDistance from the Brazilian coast to refining centers is at least 5.000 miles, or 16 to 33 da s of tra eldays of travel

Distance in miles / days of travel

5.50016 days

5.40016 days

8.00024 days 11.200

33 days

Processing in Brazil implies:• Lower Lead-Times• Reduced Tankage needs

L I t i

32Crude

• Lower Inventories• Reduced need for ships

Page 33: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

LOGISTICSThese distances have relevant freight costs to reach the different markets

Freight cost ($/bbl)

2 8

2 8

2,8

4,9 5,4

2,87,7

4,1,

Processing in Brazil implies:• Lower Lead-Times• Reduced Tankage needs

L I t i

33

CrudeProducts

• Lower Inventories• Reduced need for ships

Page 34: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

GLOBAL REFININGRegions with fast growth continue to invest in refining

Adding  Refining Capacity (2011‐2016)

3.204

New RefineriesExpansion

and

bpd

1.7551.997

Thou

s

736 703

153437

Europe Africa

153

Latin America

Ex URSSNorth America

Middle EastAsia

• Small refineries and with low complexity being closed in stagnant markets

34

• New large‐scale refineries, high complexity, adapted to process heavy oil in growing markets

Source: Pira, Petrobras, 2011

Page 35: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Risk and Return

35

Page 36: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

ProfitabilityNew refining projects have return rate above the cost of capital

Return rate (%)

Key Assumptions:18

• Refinery with trains of 300 k bpd

• Refining scheme with HCC, Coque and HDT12

14

16

•Refining costs in line with the current refineries  that has the same scale

• Integrated Analysis

P d ti f th d ti k t6

8

10

• Production for the domestic market

• Does not include tax benefits in the operation of the asset

0

2

4

6

Case 1 – Capex US$ 30.000/bpd

C 2 C S$ 0 000/b d

Margin 

US$/bbl

013 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Case 3 ‐ Capex US$ 50.000/bpd

Case 2 – Capex US$ 40.000/bpd Expected Scenario 

36

Page 37: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

RISK MITIGATIONThe expansion of refining also allows us to mitigate risks from upstream, as in 2009,  beyond the benefit of the integrationy f f g

Adjusted EBITDA by Segment (US$ bi)

48

233

351 0 12

40

21

21

1

331 1

1 2

11

4

19

31

4135

19

0-2

2008 2009 2010 2011*

InternationalDistribution

DownstreamE&P

37Note: (*) Calculated by the average exchange rates and considering the 12 months ended 30/06/11

G&EDistribution E&P

Page 38: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

BUSINESS INTEGRATIONPetrobras will increase the importance in the industry through growing the oil production and expanding the Downstream

Oil Production

production and expanding the Downstream

6

5

2020

4

3

22010

0

1

1980

38Refining Capacity

For other companies, capacity in 2010.

00 1 2 3 4 5 6

Page 39: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

SUPPORTTING UPSTREAM OPERATIONSThis integrated performance can be verified in Capex of "downstream" dedicated to support upstream operations

Capex for Fleet Expansion Capex for Logistics for Oil

support upstream operations

US$ 3,5 billionUS$ 4,4 billion

Capex for Fleet Expansion Capex for Logistics for  Oil

Pre‐SaltProjects

21%

Plangás

30%Others

51%

30%

28%

Supply

70%

Oil

39

Page 40: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

FLEXIBILITYThe existence of a flexible domestic refining capacity mitigates the risk  of fluctuations in the demand 

1.873 1.985k bpd

PRODUCTIONSALES

+5%1.786 +7%

oduc

ts

1H111H10 1H111H10

Oil

Pr

+14%

PRODUCTIONSALES

1H111H10 1H111H10

+6% +16%+9%

PRODUCTIONSALES

392

343

734

692

413

357

812

747

l ne

Die

sel

Gas

oli

40(*) Vendas do Abastecimento, não incluem as eliminações com a BR

1H111H101H111H10 1H111H101H111H10

Page 41: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Final Remarks

41

Page 42: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

NEW REFINERIES, FUEL QUALITY AND MODERNIZATION SUM UP TO 74% OF RTM INVESTMENTS

US$70.6 billion

• Refining Capacity Expansion: Abreu e Lima R fi P i I d II d C j

4.5%4.9%Refinery, Premium I and II, and Comperj;

• Quality and Conversion: Modernization, conversion, and hydrodesulfurization;

1.1%0.8%15.2%

1.0%

13.9% , y ;

• Operating improvement: maintenance and optimization, HSEE, and R&D;

• Fleet Expansion

• Logistics for Oil: oil supply for refineries and 

26.4%23.9%

infrastructure for oil exports.

Quality and Conversion

Refining Capacity Expansion

Operating improvement

Logistics for  Oil

International

Fleet Expansion

Petrochemical Investments amount to US$3.8 billion

42

Page 43: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

DECREASING INVESTMENTS IN QUALITY

US$16 billion in 2011‐15 Reduction in sulfur level

US$ 16 billion

5.9

7.0

4.94.5

-15%p.y.

Avg. Sulfur Level – Diesel (ppm)

3.2

2.3

p y

1.01.01.1

0.20.1

<250

15141312111098765

43

Page 44: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

QUALITY INVESTMENTSNew units in existing refineries are being built

Gasoline Quality Diesel Quality:

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1000 ppm Trnasition 50 ppm

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 and beyond

Diesel S-1800

RECAP Diesel and Gasoline

REPLAN Gasoline

Diesel S-500

Diesel S-50

REDUC Gasoline

REFAP Gasoline REPAR

Gasoline REVAP Gasoline

Diesel S-10

RECAP Diesel and

REFAP Diesel

REGAP Diesel

REDUC Diesel

REPAR

REGAP Gasoline

RPBC Gasoline

Diesel and Gasoline

RLAM Diesel

Diesel

REPLAN Diesel

Diesel

RPBC Diesel

REGAP

DieselDiesel

RLAM Gasoline

REGAP Revamp HDT

… reassuring Petrobras’ commitment with sustainability and sulfur 

44

g yemission reduction over time.

Page 45: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

HYDROREFINING INVESTMENTSCatch up phase to meet international standards for quality products

95%100

Hydrorefining Capacity relative to Distillation Capacity

70%

95%

69%70%67%

86%

80

100

74% (2020)67%

15%60

59% (2015)

36%

20

40

23% (current)

0

23%

Adding value to domestic crude oil by producing diesel and gasoline in‐line with international standards.

45

Underinvested over the past years requires catching up with hydrorefining capacity (for removal of sulfur) 

Page 46: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

PETROCHEMICAL STRATEGY

PETROCHEMICAL  AREA

Operate in the petrochemical sector in activities that are integrated manner with the other businesses of the Petrobras system 

Increase petrochemicals and biopolymers production preferably through capital stock in Brazil and abroadand abroad

• Operate in an integrated manner with the other business of Petrobras, in the production of basic and second‐generation petrochemicals and biopolymers;

• Focus on developing assets in Brazil;

• Develop COMPERJ seeking partnerships;

46

Page 47: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

FINAL REMARKSAdding value in Refining, Transportation and Marketing (RTC) and Petrochemicals

Preserving our unique position in the Brazilian market as the best way to monetize our crude reservesour crude reserves

Shifting the refining system towards middle distillates production while increasing fuel quality standardsq y

Reducing import levels through refining capacity expansion and domestic crude processing maximization

Optimizing capital allocation through new refining modules concept and implementation strategy

Creating efficient and reliable infrastructure to get the best value of crude oil export operations

Mitigate risks and use the flexibilities in  the existing refining  facilities to optimize the product portfolio

47

Page 48: Refining, transportation & marketing (rtc), and petrochemicals

Information:

Investor Relations

+55 21 3224-1510

[email protected]

www.petrobras.com.br/ir

4848


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