RCUWM & IDI Introduction Drought Indices
& Risk Mapping
Coping Strategies
Regional Centre on Urban Water Management (RCUWM- Tehran) under the auspices of UNESCO
Established in February 2002
Objectives • Provide scientific and technical information
• Promote research activities
• Effective capacity building activities
• Cooperate with international and regional institutions
RCUWM – Tehran Activities and Achievements
Afghanistan Bangladesh Egypt Germany
India Kuwait Lebanon Oman
Pakistan Syria Tajikistan Yemen
Mem
ber C
ountrie
s
RCUWM – Tehran Activities and Achievements
UNESCO-IHE IWA UN-Water UN-HABITAT
Coming Members:
China
Japan
Armenia
Bahrain
Indonesia
Malaysia
Sri Lanka
Turkey
Ios &
Regio
nal M
em
bers
The International Drought Initiative (IDI) was approved by
the 19th IHP Intergovernmental Council held in Paris,
France July in 2010.
Arid and Semi-arid Areas Approximately half of the Earth’s land surface and 20% of its population
Hyper-arid zone P/PET < 0.05
Arid zone 0.05 < P/PET < 0.20
Semi-arid zone 0.20 < P/PET < 0.50
Dry-sub humid zone 0.50 < P/PET < 0.65
Humid zone 0.65 < P/PET
More than 20 Countries
10% of Land Surface
About 350 Million Population
Average Annual Rainfall ~200 mm
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Middle East and Iran
Precipitation
ارومیه
12 Nov. 2014
Level: 1270.53
ارویه
09 June 2012
Level: 1274.5
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Main Reasons: 1- Decrease in precipitation and stream flow to the Lake 2- Increase in water consumption at the basin level
Average Precipitation
during 1951 to 1995
385 mm
18% Decrease
Average Precipitation
during 1995 to 2013
317 mm
Total Potential Renewable Water Resources
7024 MCM
20% decrease
Multivariate Standardized Rainfall-Runoff Index
Copula Copula is multivariate distribution function in order to describe the dependence between random variables. Spanish: cópula es una función de distribución multivariada de probabilidad cuyas marginales son distribuciones uniformes. Las cópulas describen la estructura de dependencia entre variables aleatorias
A copula is the joint distribution of random variables U1;U2; . . . ;Up, each of which is marginally uniformly distributednas U(0; 1).
• The term copula is also used for the joint cumulative distribution function of such a distribution,
C (u1; u2; … ; up) = P (U1 ≤ u1; U2 ≤ u2; …;Up ≤ up) :
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500
Si
Ri
Rank Scatter Plot
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)
Standard Stream Flow Index (SSFI)
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P (X≤x ,Y≤y) = C [F(X),G(Y)]
X: Rainfall Variables, Y: Runoff Variables
F(X),G(Y):Rainfall and Runoff distribution (Log-Normal and Gama)
C: Copula function (marginal distribution)
P (X≤x ,Y≤y):Joint distribution
MSDI using Copula concept
MSDI in comparison with SPI and SSFI
Drought Indices
Drought Risk Analysis
T (D≥d or S≥s or P≥p) T (D≥d and S≥s and P≥p)
Drought Risk Map with 10 Years Return Period Urmia lake basin
LOGO Pressure and Release Concept
Drought Risk
Exposure Coping Capacity
Hazard
(Lack of Precipitation)
R= H x V x E/C
Vulnerabilities and
Root Causes
PAR
RISK
Coping capacity Exposure Vulnerability Hazard
Precipitation
Soil wetness
Temperature
Water use Efficiency
Groundwater Dependency
Socio/Economic
Land use
Urban/Rural Population
Structural Measures
Non-Structural Measures
a) Risk assessment
b) Damage
mitigation
c) Institutional
arrangement
d) Communication system
e) Equipments
h) Education and training
g) Information sharing
f) Activity planning
i) Review
Total
Basic
Regular
Applied
Overall score Fire Protection Agency, Ministry
of General Affairs, 2004
Strategy of Coping with Drought