Regional Model Studies of

African Wave Disturbances

August 1, 2005

Charles Sosa, SHARP Apprentice Leonard Druyan, Senior Research

ScientistMatthew Fulakeza, Associate Research

Scientist

Goddard Institute for Space Studies112th Street & Broadway 2880

New York, New York 10025

Introduction The research done here at the Goddard Institute

for Space Studies is priceless work that is highly acknowledged and valued throughout the world. At Goddard we not only focus our time and effort on space studies. Studying meteorological events throughout the globe such as climate changes and global warming are also a major part of the work done here at GISS.

Introduction As a part of NASA SHARP, I was chosen to study

with Drs. Len Druyan and Dr. Mathew Fulakeza, both of whom are research scientists at GISS. Dr. Druyan and Dr. Fulakeza have been researching African Wave Disturbances and the validation of Regional Models for some time so I am very fortunate to be working with them. Since the first day of the NASA SHARP I found this topic very interesting. I have Len and Matthew to thank for that.

Introduction

The following presentation is a look at the issue at hand, what I have completed thus far in NASA SHARP and what is to come. I hope all of you enjoy it. Thank you.

“…Amina is so starved she cannot eat even if she wants to. She vomits as soon as I give her food or water, her mother said. As far as I’m concerned God did not make us all equal - I mean, look at us all here. None of us have enough food to survive…”

-BBC News, Hillary Anderson

July 20, 2005One mothers opinions and views on life as a result of the devastating famine and poverty experienced frequently in regions such as Niger and Sahel.

This case is not unique.

Famine, Poverty and Devastation

“The worlds hungriest continent reels under a new famine that killed an estimated quarter of a million people in West Africa in the early 70’s… Food production has increased 1% a year, while its population has grown nearly three times as quickly, from an estimated 350 million to 470 million.

-Time Magazine

July 1980

To this day the devastating changes in the African climate are crippling what is left of agriculture specifically in the western regions of the continent. Famine is sparked by the climate changes and also due to civil wars. An estimated 75 million died from famine between the years 1900-2004, this includes women, men, children and infants. The problems persist up until this day, developing patterns depending on the month of the year.

During the period of time between July through August, rain is present in West Africa. Over the past few years, this has not been the case. These storms are also known as African Wave Disturbances. This time period is also known as the Rainy Season. Unfortunately in some parts of West Africa, the rain fall brings harmful diseases such as malaria that kills many.

http://www.geocites.com/dtmcbride/hist/disasters-war.html

Famine, Poverty and Devastation

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are needed to see this picture.

Rainy Season of West Africa

Region of Study:Latitude: -20.00 º S to 35.00 º NLongitude: -35.00 º W to 35.00 º E

The Problem The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for

Development, otherwise known as ACMAD, is stationed in Niamey, Niger. The computer on which they gather data sources from European climate centers, runs on a Windows Platform with 128mb of random access memory (RAM). However, 128mb of RAM is not enough to run any type of meteorological applications. Relying on data sources different from their own, which cannot predict how the Rainy Seasons of West Africa will impact how well disastrous conditions are worked out. By knowing this information ahead of time, the loss of life would be prevented by getting the United Nations and Red Cross involved to aid people suffering from such droughts.

Len Druyan and Mathew Fulakeza are working on getting the RM-3 with a new computer to ACMAD.

The Proposed Solution The use of a Regional Model to act as the backbone for the

continuous re-development of countries in West Africa, shattered by the devastating loss of life and agriculture over the past few decades.

What is a Regional Model?

Regional Models such as the ones here at Goddard, are UNIX based computer programs that run best on Macintosh computers through X11 and Terminal. Using NCEP Reanalysis Data sets as a starting point, and GCM (Global Climate Model) as boundary conditions, they are able to simulate the climate at any given point in history, now and in the future, even taking into consideration global warming.

The Proposed Solution Here at Goddard, there are two versions of the model: The

15 Layer and the 28 layer. Both yield relatively the same data with some minor differences. However, they differ greatly in the amount of time it takes to run a simulation. For this research, the 28 Layer model was used.

15 LAYER MODEL:- Takes almost half as long to run simulations and

covers less atmospheric pressure layers ( 15 layers )

28 LAYER MODEL: - Takes almost twice as long to run simulations and

covers more atmospheric pressure layers ( 28 layers )

Plotting RM-3 Data

Once the selected simulation dates finish, one must take the data it produces (usually in a Binary Form) and copy it over to a program called Transform. This program also runs on Macintosh, but only in the Classic OS 9.2 Environment.

By plotting the data, you can then take TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Satellite images of the same time period that you told the RM-3 to simulate. By doing so, you can see what the simulation model said happened, as apposed to what actually happened with the TRMM.

Regional Model 28 Layer: August 1 - 31, 2003, West Africa

TRMM Satellite Image of Accumulated Rainfall : Aug 1 - 31, 2003, West Africa

Comparing the RM-3 vs. the TRMM

RM3:-Shows more rainfall-Less concentrated rainfall

TRMM:-Shows less rainfall (ocean)-More concentrated rainfall

Diff=[RM-3] - [TRMM] “Error / Difference”

Conclusion Millions of people are suffering in West Africa from a number of serious

problems ranging from civil wars, to genocide, famine, and aids. It is important to tackle these problems one at a time, one region at a time. The use of a Regional Model at ACMAD can benefit West Africa tremendously with regard to famine and droughts. These simulations that take about a few hours, possibly days to run, can determine how the next few months would turn out, giving West Africa the upper hand in the fight against Famine and Drought.

I would like to thank Senior Scientist, Leonard Druyan and Associate Scientist, Matthew Fulakeza for their encouragement and support and I look forward to completing NASA SHARP with more RM-3 plot validations to prove that it truly works to the intended audience for the reminding weeks of the NASA SHARP Program. Thank you.

Special thanks to: Frank Scalzo, Elizabeth Rudolph, Mr. Ruben Worrell, Ms. Linda Cornett, Dr. Barba, Mr. Otto Marte, Mr. Luis Villada, Mr. Victor Flores, Dr. Yiannis Andreopoulos, and finally Michael Shospin and Sabrina Hosein for all their help and tech support. Again, Thank you.

References:TRMM - Information and BackgroundTRMM - Information and Backgroundhttp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/TRMM - Daily Satellite Precipitation Datahttp://lake.nascom.nasa.gov/tovas/3B42/index2_V5.shtmlNCEP Reanalysis - Wind Datahttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cdc/data.ncep.reanalysis.htmlProject Science Brief: Introduction to Topichttp://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/druyan_06/