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Regional Sustainability Regional Sustainability ApproachesApproaches
2007 Region 4 EPA/DOD/STATESEnvironmental Conference
19-21 June 07
Elizabeth Keysar, CTC/NDCEE
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Presentation PurposePresentation Purpose
• Context & need for regional approaches• Central challenge to such approaches
– Sustainability indicators
• Strategic Sustainability Assessment
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Army Strategy for the Army Strategy for the EnvironmentEnvironment
“A sustainable Army simultaneouslymeets mission requirements
worldwide,safeguards human health,
improves quality of life, and enhances the natural environment.”
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Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints
Population Growth
Policy
Life
styl
e
Land Use Change
Population Growth
Policy
Life
styl
e
Land Use Change
DriversImpacts
Pressures are accelerating
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Major TrendsMajor Trends
• Population Growth• Urbanization• Consumption• Industrialization• Changes in Land Use and Land Cover• Globalization
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Potential Impacts to Potential Impacts to EnvironmentEnvironment
• Global climate change• Declining ecosystem services• Pollution: air, fresh water, seas, land• Increase in invasive species • Loss of biodiversity• Resource depletion
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Potential Impacts Potential Impacts to Communityto Community
• Increased costs for needed goods and services
• Reduced access to basic goods and services
• Economic restructuring• Poor health, disease • Loss of community and family stability• Income disparity, Poverty
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Potential Impacts to MissionPotential Impacts to Mission
• Increased costs for needed goods and services
• Restrictions on testing and training • Infrastructure shortfalls• Increasing and changing mission
requirements
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How do we know if aHow do we know if a “region” is sustainable? “region” is sustainable?
• Define the “region”• Identify sustainability indicators• Define end-state• Project current trends• Look for gaps
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ChallengesChallenges
• Defining Boundaries• Focus on Available Data• Regional Identity• Regional Capabilities for Action• Not just ‘Vital Signs’• Prioritize
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ChallengesChallenges
Disconnect between the scale of the problems and the ability to analyze trends (or identify interventions, or define stakeholders, or enable action…)
Boundaries rarely align between the problem and the institutions capable of action.
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Method for Identifying Method for Identifying Regional IndicatorsRegional Indicators
• Create initial list of topic areas– Use Army references
• Review lists of indicators– Literature and on-line sources
• Create database to capture indicators – Sort by ‘triple bottom line’– Key terms
• Compare database to initial list
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Central FloridaCentral Florida
http://www.myregion.org/
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Southern California Southern California Association of GovernmentsAssociation of Governments
http://www.scag.ca.gov/publications/index.htm
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Cascadia RegionCascadia Region
http://www.sightline.org/research/cascadia_scorecard/
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Sierra Nevada Wealth IndexSierra Nevada Wealth Index
http://www.sbcouncil.org/
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ResultsResults
Figure 3: Relative Percents for the Triple Bottom LineBy Source
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Regional National Local Army
Source
Per
cen
t B
y S
ou
rce
Environmental
Economy/Mission
Community
Proposed
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ResultsResults
• National most cited indicator key terms:– Social– Economic
• Regional most cited indicator key terms:– Social– Economic
• Army most cited indicator key terms:– Planning– Training– Procurement
• Local most cited indicator key terms:– Land Use– Transportation
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Proposed IndicatorsProposed Indicators
• Land Use – Land conversion rates– Military training and testing capabilities– Effectiveness of land use planning
mechanisms
• Transportation– Roadway congestion, highway accident
statistics– Airport capability, airport congestion– Annual amount of fossil fuel consumed for
transportation per household
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Proposed IndicatorsProposed Indicators
• Ecosystem Health– Number of species endangered or at risk– Number of impaired waterways– Water quality index– Acres of protected critical habitat/habitat
fragmentation– Acres of wetlands lost per year– Soil erosion rates/soil productivity rates
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Proposed IndicatorsProposed Indicators
• Water Resources – Ratio of surface and/or groundwater supply
to water withdrawal– Ratio of impervious surfaces to land area– Per capita water use– Wastewater treatment – reported effluent
flows
• Air Quality– Air quality index– Major emission sources, toxic substance
releases
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Proposed IndicatorsProposed Indicators
• Economic Conditions– DOD contribution to local employment– Percent of income earners earning below the
Living Wage– Employment diversity– Poverty rates– Unemployment rate
• Energy – Use and Availability– Energy consumption per capita– Sources: ratio of renewable to non-
renewable
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Proposed IndicatorsProposed Indicators
• Quality of Life– Number of households with a housing problem
(cost burden and availability)– Educational attainment– Health care availability– Commute times– Crime rates– Migration patterns
• Waste Generation– Solid waste disposal per capita– Material recovery rates– Tons of hazardous waste generated
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ChallengesChallenges
• Are we measuring the right things?Natural Resources = Ecosystem Services
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Common Theme: Availability of Common Theme: Availability of Natural ResourcesNatural Resources
“This combination of more goods for more people on the same resource base will prove detrimental to the environment…” (PCSD)
“The need for fertile soil, clean and abundant water, healthy air, diverse wildlife, food, fuel and fiber will intensify…” (PCSD)
“…mission accomplishment today and in the future requires land, water and air resources to train, a healthy environment in which to live, and the support of local communities.” (US Army, 2004).
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Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Services
Provisioning Regulating Cultural SupportingFood (crops, livestock, fisheries, etc.)Fiber (timber, cotton, etc.)Genetic (biochemicals, medicines, etc.)Fresh water
Air qualityClimateWater (flooding, runoff, aquifer recharge)ErosionWater purification Waste treatmentDiseasePestPollinationNatural hazard
Cultural DiversitySpiritual and religious valuesKnowledgeEducational valuesInspirationAesthetic valuesSocial relationsSense of placeCultural HeritageRecreation and ecotourism
Soil formationPrimary production (photosynthesis)Nutrient cyclingWater cycling
(Table drawn from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)
Commodities Amenities
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Natural Resource ScarcityNatural Resource Scarcity
• Scarcity = economic term for when demand exceeds supply
• Economists find evidence of scarcity when price goes up
• Natural commodity “scarcity” debated• Technological advances and
substitutions moderate price, so “scarcity” not proven
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Focus Shifting from Focus Shifting from Commodities to AmenitiesCommodities to Amenities
• “the effects of current economic activity on the basic environmental life support systems seem more critical than the availability of particular natural resource commodities”
– (Krautkraemer, 2005)
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National Level IndicatorsNational Level Indicators
• Indicator’s called for but don’t yet exist:– Natural ecosystem services– Condition of plant and animal communities– Fragmentation and landscape pattern
“There is substantial scientific uncertainty about ecosystem services – not about whether they exist or whether they are important to society – but about how to measure them, which ones to track, and the like.” - Heinz Report, p.61
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Natural Resource ScarcityNatural Resource Scarcityand PPP Installationsand PPP Installations
Indication of Natural Resource Scarcity?
Installation Land Air Water
Fort Benning Y Y Y
Fort Bliss Y Y Y
Fort Bragg Y Y Y
Fort Campbell Y Y N
Fort Carson N Y Y
Fort Dix Y Y Y
Fort Drum N Y Y
Fort Eustis Y Y Y
Fort Hood Y N N
Fort Lewis Y Y Y
Fort McCoy Y N N
Fort Polk Y N N
Fort Riley N N Y
Fort Sill Y N Y
Fort Stewart Y Y Y
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What to measure?What to measure?
• Increasing competition for natural resources impacting all elements of the Army Triple Bottom Line
• Indication of impacts to PPP installations today• Natural resource amenities (ecosystem
services) are essential to continued provision of commodities
• Ecosystem services rarely identified, measured or tracked until they have already become ‘scarce’
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What to measure?What to measure?
Natural Ecosystems
(including natural infrastructure,
functional diversity, resiliency and other
characteristics)
Human-Dominated
Ecosystems(including
urban/industrial, agricultural,
intensive forestry, and aquaculture
systems)
Global Ecosystem
Impacts
Ecosystem Services(only some
small percentage
perceived by humans)
Solar Energy
Biogeochemical and Hydrological Flows
Waste Heat
Natural Ecosystems
(including natural infrastructure,
functional diversity, resiliency and other
characteristics)
Human-Dominated
Ecosystems(including
urban/industrial, agricultural,
intensive forestry, and aquaculture
systems)
Global Ecosystem
Impacts
Ecosystem Services(only some
small percentage
perceived by humans)
Solar Energy
Biogeochemical and Hydrological Flows
Waste HeatConstanza and Folke, 1997, p. 59
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What is the SSA?What is the SSA?
• Provides Army leadership with analysis of the “state of the future”
• Suggests strategies to close the gap between forecasts and desired futures
• Bridges long-term strategic vision with short-term initiatives to meet objectives
• Establishes dialogue with Army leaders, partners and stakeholders
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SSA Operating PrinciplesSSA Operating Principles
• Employ “spiral development” concept• Take a regional perspective• Build on existing data and tools• Leverage, leverage, leverage…
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Fall Line Regional PilotFall Line Regional Pilot
• Apply concepts to actual region• Assemble data, apply models• Forecast possible future outcomes• Engage stakeholders
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The ConceptThe Concept
Current State
Possible Future Outcomes resulting from actions taken along the way
Preferred Future State
Current-Trend
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Sandhills EcoregionFall Line RegionPopulated PlacesFederal LandsInstallationStateCounty
Regional Sustainability Assessment:Regional Sustainability Assessment:Fall Line PilotFall Line Pilot
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MethodologyMethodology
Model Alternative Futures• Project expected land use change over 30 years.
Analyze Impacts and Future Outcomes• Project impact on air quality, water quality, and biodiversity using current models• Quantify the projected impacts
Perform Gap Analysis• The objective is to minimize the gap between the predicted and desired future state.
Determine Strategic Interventions• Land Use Policy• Technology Infusion• Codes and Standards• Market Approaches
Determine Key Forces• Land Use Change• Population Growth• Military Transformation• Economic Growth• Climate Change• Energy Source & Availability
Develop Scenarios• BRAC•Climate Change•Demographic Shifts•Economic Loss•Energy Cost Shifts
Define Sustainability Objectives
FO
RE
CA
ST
BA
CK
CA
ST
Describe Present System• Natural Landscape• Land Use• Demography• Transportation/Infrastructure• Economics• Sustainability Vulnerability
Plan Course of Action•Multii-Criteria Analysis of interventions
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Regional AnalysisRegional Analysis
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Identify Issues and TrendsIdentify Issues and Trends
Historical Land Use Change Analysis
Sustainability Indicator Analysis
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… … and Key Forcesand Key Forces
Legend
Installation_Boundary
SandHills_region_counties
2000pop.N3 / <NONE>
Non- existent County
1 - 5,000 persons
5,001 - 15,000 persons
15,001 - 30,000 persons
30,001 - 60,000 persons
60,001 - 100,000 persons
100,000 or more personsFort Benning, GA
Fort Bragg, NC
Fort Gordon, GA
Fort Jackson, SC
Increase in County Population from 1970 to 2000
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Draft
• Military Mission:– Improve ability to organize, equip, train, & deploy
• Water Quantity and Quality:– Ensure water is plentiful and meets standards
• Housing Affordability and Availability:– Maintain viable stock of available and affordable
housing• Energy:
– Supply reliable, secure, and renewable energy• Air Quality:
– Meet ambient standards year-round• Education:
– School agencies meet required space objectives• Biodiversity:
– Increase biodiversity and species habitat
30-year Regional Objectives30-year Regional Objectives
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Develop Scenarios & Model Develop Scenarios & Model Alternative FuturesAlternative Futures
• Forecast expected land use change over 30 years based on factors that influence population growth:– Historic Population Change
• Base and high growth rates• Impact of BRAC plus-ups
– Economics• Impact of population change on economic sectors
– Socio-Economic Dynamics--Three Sub-Regions• Benning/Columbus• Jackson/Columbia• Bragg/Fayetteville
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Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios
Forecast expected future in 30 years under different scenarios
Business-as-Usual
Population Shifts/
Military Transformations
Climate Change
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Perform Gap AnalysisPerform Gap Analysis
2000
2030
+ 500,000 population+ 200,000 households+ 260 million sq. ft. of
commercial/industrial- 19,000 acres of
agriculture- 34,000 acres of forest
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Water Use Gap AnalysisWater Use Gap Analysis
Fort Bragg Sub-region Gap = +250 million gallons per day
Water Consumption for Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electrical Uses
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
Gallo
ns p
er
Day
.
Projected Consumption Rate Consumption Rate Goal
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ConclusionsConclusions
• Region must be seen as a functional unit - more than an aggregation of parts
• Sustainability goals change with spatial scale
• Define and involve regional stakeholders• Iterative and on-going process• Make sure we are asking the right
questions
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Questions?Questions?
Elizabeth Keysar, CTC/NDCEE
Karen Baker, Army Environmental Policy InstituteElisabeth Jenicek, USACE Construction Engineering Research Lab
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Back up slides
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Potential Courses of ActionPotential Courses of Action
• Expand the DOD Natural Infrastructure concept to the regions containing Army installations
• Support national ecosystem indicator development and reporting
• Conduct additional research– Identify important natural amenities – Track current status– Project future needs
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Potential Courses of ActionPotential Courses of Action
• Explore land use planning tools– Ecosystem preservation planning– Markets in ecosystem services– Transfer of development rights– Conservation easements
• Support potential federal roles in land-use issues – Coordinating efforts of multiple agencies– Increasing State and local capacity for planning– Providing monetary incentives for conservation
programs
• Engage stakeholders in regions containing Army installations