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South Asia Seizing the moment Regional Update 2015
RegionSouth Asia
Seizing the moment
Regional Update
2015
Regional Context
Strategic Framework
Performance and Results
Key Messages2
RegionRegional Context
South Asia
SAR is making progress towards the twin goals…
Extreme poverty has been declining across SAR from 61% to 25% (400 m people) during 1981-2011
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Bottom 40%
Total
People at bottom 40% fared better than average(except for India)
Average annualized pc growth rate over a 5-year period ca. 2006-2011. Data for Afghanistan and Maldives not available
India and Pakistan are among the “top 5” for the number of people lifted out of poverty in 2008-11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 2011South Asia Developing World Total
4
Source: PovcalNet
Source: PovcalNet
Source: PovcalNet
SSA
EAPLAC
MNAECA
*Source: Center for Systemic Peace, 2014
Source: WDI Open Data, staff calculations, 2012
…but the challenges remain formidable…
39.5% of the world’s poor live in SAR, o/w 30% in India, 6% in Bangladesh, and 2% in Pakistan
Key indicators point to remaining shortcomings
Both the rate and inclusiveness of growth
affect the progress of SAR towards the Twin Goals
Growth rate needs further acceleration to alleviate poverty
SAR
AFR
EAP
LAC MNA ECA
…and the population continues to increase rapidly
33
59 60
15
47
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Child malnutrition(%)
Under-5 mortality(per 1,000)
Lack of sanitation(%)
SAR World
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Inclusiveness is not yet sufficient to share the benefits of growth
GDP growth (%)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Elasticity growth / poverty (absolute value) observed between 2002 and 2010
5
And fragility continues to affect parts of the Region
• Fragility in SAR ranges from active conflict to low-level insurgency, terrorism, and post-conflict transitions, with some conflicts having geopolitical significance beyond the region
• Half of SAR countries are in the moderate to high risk group by the State Fragility Index* and experienced political violence in 2014
Source: PovcalNet, 2011 data
Source: WB Global Economic Prospects Source: SARCE staff estimates based on PovcalNet, WDI data
6
…but environmental damages worsen, meaning that growth in SAR may not be sustainable
The share of countries with wealth depletion is decreasing…
…and the current development pathway may not be sustainable
Based on changes in wealth per capita, measuring gross savings adjusted for changes in produced, human and natural capital and population growth
54% 56%51%
55%
40% 40%
33%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1995 2000 2008 2010
All SAR
SAR is highly vulnerable to climate change…
Climate Vulnerability Index (2014)
…which is already having a negative impact on SAR economies, likely to worsen over the coming decades
Extreme risk Low risk
Source: based on WB Wealth database Source: ENV GP based on Brauer et al (2012)
Environmental costs in SAR (billion US$, constant year 2010)
Meanwhile, the space for policy dialogue is opening up in many SAR countries (in spite of persisting fragilities)…
India: Election of a reform-minded government and renewed interest in regional cooperation
Afghanistan: New National Unity government, facing fiscal crisis, continuing political transition, uncertain security situation, and withdrawal of international security forces
Pakistan: Reform-oriented government, but persisting violence and security issues
The Maldives: Middle Income Country facing climate-related and economic management challenges
Sri Lanka: Just-elected president promising governance improvements
Nepal: Constitutional and political dialogue supports advances in energy, transport, and perhaps decentralization
Bhutan: Energetic, reform-minded government willing to innovate and experiment
Bangladesh: Political divisions persist, but some prospects for economic reform (e.g., PPPs, energy, economic zones)
Regional cooperation: New impetus and opportunities, concrete progress in spite of lingering tensions
Emergence of new actors: new development institutions (AIIB, NDB), growing interest from neighboring countries7
…and lower oil prices provide an opportunity to accelerate progress towards the Twin Goals
All SAR countries are net oil importers, and lower prices have a mostly positive impact on growth and poverty reduction through multiple channels
Reduced external imbalances
Reduced subsidies and fiscal deficit
Lower inflation and increased private
consumption
SAR countries are importing a large share of their energy (e.g., Pakistan, 60% of electricity from imported oil).
SAR countries provide extensive (direct and indirect) subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption, at a heavy cost for public finance (e.g., savings for India = 0.2% of GDP, for Bangladesh = 0.4% of GDP).
Energy products account for a large share of SAR imports (e.g., India = 36%, Bangladesh = 18%). Lower international prices will improve the current account.
Lower remittances
Remittances from Gulf countries have played a critical role in reducing poverty, esp. in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan (e.g., Nepal, remittances = 30% of GDP). Lower oil prices will translate into lower remittances.
Faster economic growth
Poverty reduction
8
On the other hand, the impact of a weak global recovery is expected to remain limited for SAR:• SAR’s main trade partner is the US, where recovery is relatively strong• The consequences of Fed’s tapering for SAR have already been factored in by financial markets • Growth in SAR is influenced by growth in India which is expected to benefit from low energy prices and domestic reforms
Positive impact, with a delay
RegionStrategic Framework
South Asia
Key areas of focus for growth:
Infrastructure Energy Urbanization Access to finance Regional and global
integration Agriculture
Key areas of focus for social inclusion:
Severest exclusions (malnutrition, sanitation, illiteracy, gender, caste and ethnic discrimination)
Quality / access to health, education, other public services, finance
Social protection Labor force participation
Key areas of focus for climate and environment management
Prevention and disaster readiness Comprehensive policies for adaptation – energy
(incl. electrification), agriculture, urbanization
Mobilization and management of public resources, tax reforms
Accountability / efficiency of public service delivery
Transparency of public resource management
Institutional strengthening Corporate governance
Advocacy against gender-based violence
Labor force participation, access to assets and finance for women (incl SMEs)
Empowerment through rural livelihood programs
Reproductive health Education for girls
Social Inclusion
Climate and Environment Management
WBG strategic directions remain valid as new opportunities are emerging
10
GROWTH
To further unleash the drivers of growth…
Address the infrastructure gapImprove the business environment
Enhance regional and global integration
0
200
400
600
800
ECA MNA LAC EAP SAR AFR
Half a billion people without electricity
The financing gap for infrastructure is estimated at $2.5 trillion by 2020. SAR lags behind all regions but AFR on access to roads, water and ICT. Integrated solutions incl. PPPs are needed
Nurture a system of vibrant cities
To absorb new entrants in the labor market, SAR needs to create 1 million jobs a month
Increasing labor costs in EAP create opportunities for SAR, but regulatory reforms are needed to attract private investments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Intra-regional trade as share of total
trade (%, 2012)
Only 32% of SAR population live in cities (vs. 53% worldwide)
Yet, SAR has some of the world’s megacities (Delhi, Mumbai, and Karachi exceed 20 m people)
Already urban services are stretched in many places and over 200 m people live in slums
11
Strengthen the financial system and capital markets
Support growth in rural areas
Multiple barriers constrain intra-regional trade and investments
67 percent of SAR population is rural
Priorities include:• Improving agricultural performance• Supporting rural non-farm jobs• Improve climate resilience of
agriculture systems
Only 33 % of people over 15 have a financial account (vs. 50% worldwide): 150 million households are under-banked
Progress in SAR is key to achieving the Universal Financial Access goal by 2020 (23 % of the world’s unbanked are in India)
SAR financial markets remain vulnerable to shocks with relatively high levels of non-performing loans
Overall, SAR countries rank low on Doing Business
Source: Urbanization in South Asia (Flagship report, forthcoming)
Source: SARCE
OPPORTUNITYHealth
EducationCIRCUMSTANCES
GenderCaste
Minority
To further enhance social inclusion…
Work on the key factors that affect inclusion and inequalities…
…and to address the specific issues faced by women
…and in particular to further improve social services delivery
0
50
100
150
Ban Ind Mal Nep Pak Sri
Poorest quintile Richest quintile
SUPPORTSocial protectionAccess to financeTaxes / Transfers
MOBILITYJobs
Cities
At birth During youth Throughout life
Solid progress in some areas (e.g., primary education enrollment across the region, gender parity in primary / secondary in Bangladesh)…
…but significant challenges remain both to consolidate these advances, and to address further issues (e.g., quality of education)
Much remains to be done in a number of other areas, e.g., under-5 mortality remains largely determined by income levels
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
ECA EAP LAC MNA SAR AFR
Gender Inequality IndexHalf of adult women are illiterate, the highest rate among all regions
In spite of progress women are more likely to die in childbirth than in any region but AFR
Access to mainstream financial services for women is a major challenge for the region
Pervasive violence against women in many forms (e.g., rapes, dowry murders, “honor” killings)
Reduce high gender inequalities… …and address their many dimensions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 World
Female labor force participation is not only low but declining (although not in all countries)
12
Source: Addressing inequality in South Asia (WB report), based on DHSs; 2012
Source: World Development Indicators (WDI) Open Data, 2012
Source: WDI Open Data
To mitigate and adapt to climate change…
Gradually reduce dependence on fossil fuels
Address increasing incidence and severity of natural disasters including
monsoon-caused floods such as those in India and Pakistan in 2014
…and to enhance the effectiveness of governments
“Even before 2035 [Himalayan glaciers’ melting] is going to start showing up in changes in water flows, which affect 500 m people in SAR and 250 m people in China.” R. Pachauri, IPCC Head
Mitigate climate change impact on water resources
CO2 emissions are poised to increase as SAR responds to growing energy demand, and India is already the world’s fourth largest emitter
CO2 emissions (Gt, 2010)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Afg Ban Bhu Ind Mal Nep Pak Sri 2012
2013
2014
Strengthen fiscal balancesFiscal deficit (% of GDP)
Raise revenues, which are among the lowest in the world
Enhance performanceSAR faces continued challenges on some key dimensions of good governance
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
China US EU SAR India Russia Japan
Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators 2014 Sources: Addressing Inequality report, based on IMF Data Mapper, 2012Source: The World Bank DECPG
Source: World Development Indicators, open data
Build on existing dialogue, deepen analysis through SCDs (FY15: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka)
Build on India’s renewed interest for partnering with the WBG
Help mitigate threats caused by fragility
Build on the momentum for regional connectivity and cooperation:
Eastern side of the region: India/Bangladesh, and India/Nepal power trading agreements
Western side of the region: power trading agreements between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia under CASA 1000
Intensify policy dialogue on strategic reforms and better invest in knowledge
Develop more integrated solutionsand use a broader range of instruments (including DPLs and P4Rs)
Further strengthen synergies between WB, IFC, and MIGA
Further strengthen partnerships with development actors, private sector, CSOs
Further strengthen operational qualityand results
Continue to deliver on institutional and IDA commitments (e.g., deliver new Regional Gender Action Plan)
The WBG is seizing emerging opportunities to scale up our impact across SAR…
The WBG delivered on its Compact in FY14 with a gradual transition towards supporting policy reforms, a high volume of lending ($10.5 bln), the launch of transformational projects (e.g. CASA-1000, $1bln of Pakistan DPCs, Pakistan Dasu, Nepal hydro power) and a high degree of client satisfaction
In response to growing client demand, the WBG will continue to increase its support to policy reforms
14
Continued priorities Priorities for scaling up Areas to scale down
Afghanistan • Be flexible, and use a fragility lens• Infrastructure and basic services
(education, health, National Solidarity Program, rural roads)
• Policy support and governance
• Fiscal issues, civil service reform• Urban• Agriculture/agribusiness• IFC: investment climate, SME finance,
infrastructure, PPPs, trade finance
• Large infrastructure except in exceptional cases (e.g., regional integration)
• Fragility aspects of SCD / CPF will further define selectivity
Bangladesh • Policy support and institutional reform • Catalytic financing in health, education,
and social protection• IFC support to garments sector, financial
sector stability/inclusion
• Infrastructure (transport, energy) incl IFC/ MIGA• Climate• Export-led manufacturing beyond garments• Delta/water management• IFC: telecom, power transmission
• Human development projects without leveraging other partners’ resources
• Direct support to non-export-oriented private sector development
Bhutan • Public finance management• Private sector development• Rural/urban and ‘Green’ development
• Transport connectivity (with India)• Labor market and skills• IFC-led financial infrastructure program
• Health and education
India • “Six priorities “: (i) 100 smart cities; (ii) 500+ cities; (iii) Ganga; (iv) sanitation, open defecation; (v) 24 x 7 power for all; (vi) skills
• Transport, rural development
• Doing Business• Universal health insurance• Debt management• Renewable energy• Railways• Private Participation for Health in India, tourism• IFC: financial inclusion – payments
• Large national programs and state-level engagements in states other than Low Income States or Special Category States
Maldives • Environment and climate • IFC: tourism, fisheries, infrastructure • Water (other than DRM)
Nepal • Financial sector stability• Agricultural productivity• Post-conflict social inclusion
• IFC / WB /MIGA: Hydropower generation / transmission
• Economic diversification
• Short-term post-conflict assistance• Primary and basic education financing• Urban development financing• Social development financing
Pakistan • Energy• Basic services• Private sector development• Policy reform
• Water• Polio• Disaster risk management, climate• Subnational interventions (Punjab jobs)• IFC: power, rail freight, PPPs• MIGA: Power, PPPs
• Road connectivity• Mining (other than analytical work)• Fragmented provincial engagements• IFC: trade finance
Sri Lanka • Structural transformation to MIC• Climate resilience, inclusion• IFC: responsible finance/customer
protection program
• Governance, accountability, transparency• Competitiveness, rural transformation, jobs• IFC: inclusive growth, transport, PPPs, renewable
energy, agribusiness, garments, tourism
• To be determined based on consultations with new government
Regional integration
• Transport and trade facilitation• Energy transmission ( regional market)
• Environment (disaster management, shared rivers)
• One-off events which are not part of a broader engagement strategy
…by scaling up our engagement selectively…
…further strengthening synergies across the WBG…
Effective coordination mechanisms are in place…
Enhanced institutional arrangements:• Regional Coordination
Mechanism (last session in January 2015) to be followed by joint thematic sessions involving GPs
• Shared or co-located offices (e.g., Dubai, Islamabad, Kathmandu, Kabul, Thimphu)
• IFC program leader part of the WBG program leaders team (e.g., Pakistan)
Strategic-level coordination• Joint teams working on
SCDs/CPFs• Mutual participation in project
review meetings (e.g., Nepal, Pakistan)
• Joint Implementation Plan in target areas (e.g., Nepal hydro)
…and there is progress on the ground, including on flagship joint engagementsAfghanistan• Joint IFC/MIGA engagement in MTN telecom• Coordinated approach on microfinance (IDA project,
proposed IFC guarantee and TA)• WB-IFC-MIGA collaboration in agriculture
India• Private Participation for Health in India: Leverages private sector
to increase/improve access by the poor to affordable and quality health services. MoU to be signed with the Govt. of Uttar Pradesh to facilitate IFC /WB Advisory Services
• Tourism: ongoing work to develop a WB/IFC-supported tourism framework on the Buddhist Circuit.
• Flagship programs in financial inclusion, such as G2P payments, MSME Growth and Innovation projects
Nepal• Energy: Joint Implementation Plan (JIP) under execution; several
Project Development Agreements for hydropower plants with IDA-IFC financing, IDA-IFC TA, and possibly IDA-MIGA guarantees
Pakistan• Energy: WB investments ($700 m for Dasu Hydropower) and
policy lending to support reforms ($1 b in FY14); IFC investments ($475 m in 9 projects, $600 m future investments targeted); MIGA guarantee ($300 m)
16
…and building on a set of strong partnerships
Donor trust an increasing share of resources to the WBG’s work in South Asia
Knowledge partnerships are particularly important
Looking forward, SAR intends to further strengthen and expand these partnerships
• Learning from SAR: India ranks #1 knowledge provider in FY14 under the Bank-managed TF for South-South Knowledge Exchange (SSKE); many more SSKE transactions happening under IDA projects and Trust Funds
• Working with local think tanks and academia, e.g., annual South Asia Economic Summit; Creating new facilities to engage with local knowledge partners (e.g., under the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund)
• Supporting stakeholder networks, e.g., South Asia youth network; networks of mayors; champions group for regional integration; power sector leaders forum
• Replenish existing programs as appropriate
• Establish new vehicles: e.g., regional connectivity (building blocks for regional electricity and transport networks), CASA 1000, RAS with Pakistan Central Bank
• Reach out to non-traditional development partners to scale up results through cooperation (e.g., China Development Bank, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank)
• Engagement in fragile situations, e.g., Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (pledged contributions of $8.7 bln from 34 donors with US and UK as main financiers), Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province Federally Administered Tribal Areas
• Reform-focused TA programs, e.g. UK funds for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan
• Cofinancing of critical operations, e.g., ADB and Japan for Pakistan Development Policy Credit for Power Sector
• Regional initiatives, e.g. South Asia Water Initiative, South Asia Food and Nutrition Security Initiative
• Regional Integration (e.g., UK, Australia)
Development partners are key to supporting selected strategic endeavors
17
RegionPerformance and
Results
South Asia
Financing is key to supporting the Region at this critical juncture…
IDA/IBRD/RE delivered above expectations in FY14 IFC Total Long-term Financing in SAR ($ million)
MIGA Guarantees issued in SAR ($ million) WBG financing capacity going forward
• India interested in borrowing $5 bn a year. IBRD’s Single Borrower Limit was raised from $17.5 bn to $20 bn and transitional support is provided under IDA17. Special Private Placement Bonds arrangement expands borrowing space for IBRD by up to $4.3 bn
• Significant upside potential depending on pace of reforms in Pakistan and Sri Lanka
• Continued interest by Bangladesh, a strong absorber; IDA allocation the main constraints for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal
• MIGA intends to maintain its annual average guarantee volume at about $200-$300 m for the next 3 years
• IFC projects to commit around $2–2.5 bn per year to SAR activities; IFC local currency financing via off/on-shore bond program
19
1.7 0
95.1
228.9
324.6
2.60
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
* Year to date
4 6.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 5.4
26.7%28.4%
21.9%
15.7% 14.7%
18.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Dis
bu
rse
me
nt
Rat
io
Gro
ss d
isb
urs
em
en
ts (
$b
n)
Gross Disbursements Disbursement Ratio
…while continuing to focus on quality and disbursements
Strengthening portfolio performance requires determined and continued action over time
Major efforts made in FY14• SAR cancelled $2.1bn from 43 poorly-performing
projects in FY14• Renewed emphasis on readiness of new operations,
and underpinning analytics• Started diversifying instrument mix (IDA/IFC
synergies, policy lending, program for results)
Priority for FY15-FY16: engage with GPs to make the new delivery model work for quality• Quality at entry: Work with clients to learn, align incentives and
ensure accountability Work with GPs to ensure readiness • Quality during implementation: Country level portfolio reviews with clients,
including at sectoral or subnational levels Proactive portfolio management, including
cancellations / restructurings as needed Use of innovative approaches to implementation in
fragile areas. (e.g., third-party monitoring and use of technology and cell phones in Afghanistan)
Ensure adequate staff presence in the field, especially in low-capacity locations
74%83%
70% 65%80% 77%
77% 74% 75% 72% 72% 74%
78% 75% 73% 72% 71% 69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
% S
atis
fact
ory
IEG Satisfactory Outcome
Outcome %Satisfactory (SAR)
SAR 3-yr rollingavg % sat
Bank 3-yr rollingavg % sat
SAR quality remains above Bank average…
…but disbursements are slower than Bank average, and vary significantly across countries
20Disbursement ratio at the end of February 15 is at 8.3% for IBRD/IDA.
Disbursement ratios (FY14)per country
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Afg
Ban
Bh
u
Ind
Mal
Nep Pak Sr
i
Re
g
Gross disbursement and disbursement ratios IBRD/IDA (FY09-14)
117
8984
16$40.9
$32.4$24.1
$2.8$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
0
30
60
90
120
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 (Q1+Q2)
Completed AAA and Life Spending
# of Completed activities Completion costs $ million
Knowledge services play a critical role in supporting reforms across SAR
Knowledge services are central to the WBG’s strategic effort to support reforms, with a significant impact in several areas:• To inform the public debate (e.g., Addressing Inequality in South Asia)• To identify priorities for reform (e.g., Nepal just-in-time policy notes, Afghanistan
Agriculture review)• To underpin the design of reforms (e.g., Student Learning in South Asia)• To strengthen institutional capacity (e.g., capacity building under the ARTF)
The WBG has engaged in a systematic effort to further strengthen focus and impact:
Priorities include:• Enforcing the ADM to ensure resources (including Trust fund products) are focused on
most relevant / demanded tasks• Organizing regular portfolio reviews to track progress• Optimizing use and follow up of AAA products
Clients express satisfaction with quality
6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
AFR
EAP
ECA
LCR
MNA
SAR
21
“Achievement of agreed objectives” from Client Feedback Instrument, 2014
STAY TUNED !Major reports coming up soon
Breaking Barriers to Regional TradeThe Urbanization Challenge in South Asia
Competitiveness in South AsiaEducation and IncentivesThe Glaciers of Himalaya
…and more…
Drive for results ! A few illustrations
22
Fueling Growth Enhancing sustainabilityPromoting inclusion
Improving Connectivity Across Rural India:Millions of rural people in some of India’s poorest states now have an all-weather road near their homes
Investment climate in Bangladesh: Regulatory improvements have reduced firm costs by over $200 million making them more productive and competitive
Water for all in India: today, 1.6 million people in rural Punjab now get safe drinking water through piped connections at home
Energy in Pakistan: 2,370 MW power projects supported by IFC and MIGA with 4.4 m tons of CO2 avoided, to be complemented by planned IDA projects
Job Creation through IFC clients: in CY2013 400,000+ direct jobs created (88,000 for women) across South Asia
Employment Generation Program for the Poorest in Bangladesh: the EGPP, established in response to the 2008 global food price crisis, provided a secure and regular source of income to over 700,000 of the poorest people, of which over 230,000 are female
Sri Lanka: Supporting conflict-affected communities: 1 million people living in 1,000 communities received support through 3,200 community infrastructure projects
Afghanistan: Bringing 6 million children back to school: Girls enrollment has reached over 2.7 million and overall enrollment has reached 7.1 million
Disaster Planning Pays off in Odisha, India: Successful disaster risk management, enabled a 99.6% reduction in fatalities from a comparable storm 14 years prior
Communities Find Solutions to Tackling Climate Change in Flood Hit Areas in Bangladesh:Innovative community-driven adaptions are building climate change resiliency, with 15,000 families escaping recent floods and protecting their homes and assets by building on elevated ground
Sri Lanka: Renewable energy: 183.5 MW capacity installed; off-grid electricity provided to 500,000 people in remote rural areas
Strengthening governancePakistan: Leverage Mobile Phones for Innovative Governance SolutionsPunjab government is getting direct feedback on the quality and delivery of services through SMS
Taking action on genderNepal: Marketable Skills Set Young Women on Path to ProsperityVocational training provided to 4,400 young women leading to employment and economic independence
Regional Performance Indicators
SAR Performance IndicatorsWB/WBG
TargetWorld Bank SAR SAR
WB/WBG
TargetWorld Bank SAR SAR
(FY17) (FY13) (FY13) (FY15 Q2) (FY17) (FY13) (FY13) (FY15 Q2)
Development Impact Development Outcomes Ratings Quality and timeliness of lending operations
Satisfactory outcomes for IBRD/IDA operations Satisfactory Bank performance(%, IEG rating)*
- as a share of operations (%, IEG rating), FY10-FY12 75 72 70 76 - at entry (% of commitments), FY10-FY12 80 75 55 67- as a share of commitments (%, IEG rating), FY10-FY12 80 83 86 87 - during supervision(% of commitments), FY10-FY12 80 84 84 84
Knowledge and advisory services objectives accomplished (%, client rating) in FY15 61 67 -- Disbursement ratio (%) * 20 21 17 6
Client Feedback Quality and efficiency of knowledge products
Client feedback (scale: 1-10) Quality of knowledge and advisory services (scale: 1-10) in FY15 8 8 --- on WB effectiveness and impact on results 7 7 7 -- Knowledge and advisory services delivered in a timely manner (%) 80 68 50 50
- on WB responsiveness and staff accessibility 7 7 6 --
Knowledge and science of delivery for results
Strategic Context Projects with baseline data for all PDO indicators in the first ISR (%) 100 69 49 64
Mainstreaming of priorities
Projects with gender-informed analysis, action and monitoring (%) 66 54 65 82 Financial Sustainability and Efficiency
Projects with gender monitoring at design reporting on it during implementation (%) 75 55 36 Expense to business revenue ratio (%) <=100 113 41 --
Commitments with climate co-benefits (US$ billions) -- 6 1 Support cost ratio (%) -- 1 0 --
Operational Delivery for Clients Managing Talent
Financing for clients Employee engagement (%), FY14 77 71 75 --
IBRD/IDA commitments (US$ billions) -- 32 5 2 Managerial effectiveness (%), FY14 71 67 68 --IBRD/IDA disbursements (US$ billions) -- 27 4 2 Staff diversity (index), FY14 1 1 1 0
Inclusion index (%), FY14 67 62 65 --
World Bank Group Performance
Development Impact Strategic Context Development outcomes ratings
Satisfactory completion of country strategies (%, IEG rating) ** 70 55 60 75 Mainstreaming of priorities
Gender integrated country strategies (%) 100 74 100 --
Client Feedback
Stakeholder feedback (scale: 1-10) Working as one WBG
- on WBG effectiveness and impact on results 7 6 6 -- Staff perception of WBG collaboration (%), FY14 (favorable) 66 23 22 --
- on WBG knowledge 7 7 6 --
Operational Delivery for Clients
Satisfactory WBG performance for country strategies (%, IEG rating)** 75 72 80 75
23
RegionKey Messages
South Asia
• SAR is central to achieving the Twin Goals: 39.5% of the poor live in the Region, and despite progress challenges remain formidable
• There is renewed impetus for development actions, as the political space is opening up and lower oil prices increase margins for maneuvering
• SAR is seizing the moment by boosting efforts to support reforms along key strategic directions: growth, inclusion, sustainability, accompanied by gender and governance
• Key to our success will be selectivity, synergies across the WBG, partnerships, operational performance, and knowledge services
Key Messages
25
