Regionalisation

Volkmar HartjeTechnical University of Berlin, Institute for Landscape and Environmental Planning,

Berlin, Germany

GLOWA-ElbeGLOWA Status Conference 19 May 2005 Cologne

GLOWA ELBE PROJECT: REGIONALISATION

Regionalisation

GLOWA ELBE PROJECT: REGIONALISATION

                             

PROJECTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE TO

THE RIVER BASIN SCALE

Project Leader: Professor Dr. V. Hartje, TU Berlin

Regionalisation

Overview

I. Approach: regionalisation of socio-economic development in GLOWA Elbe II

II. Application: Agricultural sector with results from GLOWA Elbe I

III. Outlook

Regionalisation

Integrative Methodological Approach

1

(B) Policy options

Analyses of problems, conflicts,expressed needs, targets,...

Participation

• Public

• Policy

• Agents

• Agencies

• NGO’s

• others

Stakeholder acceptance

YESNODecision processes

Further exploration

2Determination of multiple criteria and indicators

3 Multidisciplinary impact analysisfor each scenario

4 Evaluation of results:Benefit-cost analysis, Multi-criteria analysis

and Equity analysis

Derivation of scenarios for future development, considering:

(A) External driving forces/ Boundary conditions

Regionalisation

Context within GLOWA Elbe Project

Project I: Integration and Coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA)

Regional actors, decision bodies

Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change

Glo

bal

Ch

ang

eM

ana

gem

ent

leve

l

Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis

Management-options

Impact-analysis

Evaluation

Project IV: Conflict field

Surface Water Quality

Nutrient entry

Cost-efficiency analysis

Eco-hydrological Indicators

Socioeconomic Indicators

Project III: Conflict field

Surface Water Availability

Run-off regulation

Multi-criteria analysis

Eco-hydrological Indicators

Socioeconomic Indicators

Project advisory board

Regionalisation

Water management

(WBALMO)

Water use

Energy / Mining

(KASIM)

Households / business

(HAUSHALT WASSER)

Industry

(INDUSTRIE WASSER)

Agriculture / Irrigation

Wetlands

(MODAM)

Development of water technologies

Inflow

Evaporation

Irrigation

Wetlands

Water suppliers

Industry

Mining

Power plants

Nutrient load

(MONERIS)

Point source: Industry

X2

X4

Y2

Y7

Y6

Y3

Y5

Z1

Z2

Z9

Z6

Z7

Z8

Z5

Regionalisation of global change

Future climate

(STAR)

Development of agricultural sector

(WATSIM-RAUMIS)

Economics and demography

(REGE)

Y1

Y8

X13

Z3

Z4

Minimal flow for conservation

Transport on inland waterways

Point source: Sewage plant

Diffuse Source: Sealed surfaces

Diffuse Source: Erosion

Diffuse Source: Atmospheric Deposition

Diffuse Source: Drainage

Diffuse Source: Surface denudation

Diffuse Source: Groundwater

Diffuse Source / Sink: Wetlands

Land use and regional water balance

Hydrological cycle and crop yields

(SWIM)

Land use

(LAND USE SCANNER)

X1

X15

X3

Development of energy sector

(IKARUS-KASIM)

Y4

Z1

Transport on inland waterways

Regionalisation

I. Approach

Regionalisation of socio-economic development in GLOWA Elbe II

Regionalisation

GLOWA Elbe methodological approach

Two stage regionalisation: Model based assessment of effects of global change on a regional

level using consistent scenarios of global change Subsequent projection to dimensions of river basin and water users

Modular concept: Application of well established modelling approaches for policy

analysis in specific sectors for integrated water resources assessment New development of currently missing modules e.g. related to

estimating water demand functions as required

Primary integration: Consistent typology of water users, nutrient emitters and hydrological

response units Consistent definition of spatial and temporal resolutions

Regionalisation

Re

gio

n

Two-stage modular approach to regionalisation

Glo

bal

Riv

er B

asin

Economic & demographic development

REGE WATERTECH

Water technology development

Water balanceWBalMo

NutrientsMONERIS

Water infrastructure

Technology

Water demand

IKARUS / KASIM

Energy sectorAgricultural production

RAUMIS

Land use & population

Land Use Scanner

Regionalisation

Riv

er B

asin

Water balanceWBalMo

NutrientsMONERIS

Example : Water demand

Glo

bal

Re

gio

n

Land Use Scanner

Water technology

Economic development

Water infrastructure

Technology

Water demandPopulation & settlements

Spatial claims population

Economy & demographics

REGE

Spatial claimsagriculture

Regionalisation

GIS based primary integration: typology and topology

Urban Systems

Soils / Geology

Landcover

Hydrology

Climate

Hydrological response unit

concept

Water user concept

Regionalisation

Principal functionality of the Land Use Scanner

Local suitabilityCurrent land use

Physical suitability

Policy maps

Distance relations

Future land use

Allocation module:Doubly constrained

logit model

& &&Global change scenarios

Regional Claims

Regionalisation

Water Demand: Urban water demand

Types of household water demand

Techno-logical factors

Impact of technological change on household

water demand between t0 and t1

(WATER-INFRASTRUCTURE)

Database: micro household survey on water demand in t0

Type 1

Type 2

Type 3

Type k

…

Water demand Type 1

Water demand Type 2

Water demand Type 3

…

Water demand Type k

Household and

population factors

Population and household structure

in a city/districtat time t1

(REGE)

Impact factors

Impact factors of water demand, t0

Water demand of the city or

the district in

t1

Regionalisation

Water supply infrastructure

Freistaat SachsenStatusbericht Abwasser 2002Dienstbezirk StUFA Chemnitz

AbwasserbeseitigungspflichtigeZweckverbände und Gemeinden/Kommunale KläranlagenSchematische Darstellung. Datenbestand 2001

Inbetriebnahme, letzte Rekonstruktion oder ErweiterungBis ab1990 1991

Größenklassen (nach Einwohnerwerten)

Mechanische Reinigung

Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung

Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit N-Eliminierung*)

Mechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit P-EliminierungMechanisch-biologische Reinigung mit N*)- und P-Eliminierung

*)Größenklassen bis 10.000 Einwohnerwerte ggf. nur Ammoniumsticksotff-Reduzierung

50 bis< 1000

1000bis5000

> 5000bis10.000

>10.000bis100.000

>100.000

Regionalisation

II. Application

Agricultural sector with results from GLOWA Elbe I

Regionalisation

Regionalisation

Example: Agricultural sector

Glo

bal

Re

gio

nR

iver

Bas

in

Temperature &

precipitation

Land use

Nutrient overload

Agricultural markets &

trade policy

WATSIM

Pricescenarios

Output relations

Agricultural production

RAUMIS

Yieldvariation

ECHAM4/OPYC3

STAR

Climate

Land Use Scanner

Land use

Land share, crop rotation & Nutrient balances

Other land claims

Water balanceSWIM

Nutrients MONERIS

Regionalisation

Regionalisation

Climate: change in precipitation

Changes in precipitation: comparing 2046/2055 to 1951/2000

Difference of annual sum [mm]

Regionalisation

Regionalisation

Climate induced change of yield potential

Winter wheat

On average = - 13 %

Silage maize

On average = + 9 %

Regionalisation

Regionalisation

Economic change: Scenario for the agricultural sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

OECD

FAPRI

WATSIM

US$/t

Weizen 1)

Mais 2)

1) HRW No. 1 fob Golf. - 2) Yellow No. 1 fob Golf.

World market price for grain

Policy option: Partial liberalisation of EU Common Agricultural Policy

Complete decoupling of direct payments

No production obligations (Cross-Compliance)

No backing of prices

Regionalisation

Regionalisation

Implications for agricultural land use

Land set-aside

Partial Liberalisation

2020

% of agricultural area

less than 5

5 - 15

15 - 30

30 - 40

more than 40

H. Gömann, C. Julius und P. Kreins;

RAUMIS 8/2003

Regionalisation

Regionalisation

Nutrient Balance Surplus

Partial Liberalisation

2020

Changes in Nitrogen Balance

kg N / hectare of

agricultural land

< - 10

> - 10 up to - 8

> - 8 up to - 6

> - 6 up to - 4

< - 4

Regionalisation

Regionalisation

III. Outlook

Regionalisation

GLOWA Elbe Regionalisation Approach: Expected Output

Quantitative rationing / Measuresfor reduction of emissions

Alternative options for action

Water useNutrient emissions

Scenarios of socio-economic development (water demand / emissions)

Past Future

Water supply Stochastics + Scenarios of change

Climate

Land use

Regionalisation

Favourable Policy Context: Water Framework Directive

1. The EU Water Framework Directive requires River Basin Management Plans and Operational Programs of Measure on a river basin level to be operational by 2009.

2. As a basis, long term forecasts of demand and supply for water in the river basin have to be taken into account.

3. There is demand for research results from the users on a river basin level.

4. The methodology is further refined by the WATECO group as part of the common implementation strategy.

Regionalisation

Expected research contributions

1. Methodology to prepare scenarios

2. Links in modular model structure

3. Link administrative units to scale of water infrastructure

4. Modelling industrial and residential water demand

5. Generate water typology

Regionalisation

Thank You

For Your Attention!

WWW.GLOWA-Elbe.de