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Regulatory System Impacts on Global GM Crop Adoption Patterns
Savannah Gleim1, Stuart Smyth1, and Peter Phillips2
1 Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Canada2 Johnson-Shoyama School of Public Policy, University of Saskatchewan, Canada
Paper prepared for presentation at the 19th ICABR Conference“IMPACTS OF THE BIOECONOMY ON AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY,
THE ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN HEALTH”June 17, 2015
Agenda
• Problem & Objective• Data• Results• Analysis & Conclusion
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Objective
Examine the global regulatory approval patterns to determine trends of GM crop
commodities and traits.
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Methodolgy
• International Service for the Acquistition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) GMO database
• GMO prevalent crops: maize/corn, soybeans, canola, and cotton
• Compare corn approvals by type of approval, events, countries, and traits
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Data
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Crop Number of events approved
Events approved for
Food Feed Cultivation
Canola 32 32 30 22
Cotton 54 44 42 45
Corn 138 133 123 90
Soybean 30 28 26 28
TOTAL 254 237 221 185
Table 1: Approval of GM Events, 1995-2014
Source: ISAAA 2015
Figure 1: Aggregated GM corn approvals, year & typeSource: ISAAA 2015
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35
Results
Figure 2: Yearly approvals for all corn eventsSource: ISAAA 2015
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Figure 3: Corn event approvals by yearSource: ISAAA 2015
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Saturation or New Innovation ?
• Commercial GM traits• Approving nations• Leaders and followers
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Figure 4: Single and stacked GM corn trait approvalsSource: ISAAA 2015
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Tota
l App
rova
ls
Single Stacked
Figure 5: Stacked GM corn trait approvalSource: ISAAA 2015
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Figure 6: Country approval from 1995-2004Source: ISAAA 2015
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Figure 7: Country approval from 2005-2014Source: ISAAA 2015
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Figure 8: Country approval from 1995-2014Source: ISAAA 2015
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Figure 9: Country approval by eventSource: ISAAA 2015
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1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
Year
of A
ppro
val
EventsArgentina Australia Brazil Canada Chile ChinaColumbia Egypt EU Honduras Japan PanamaParaguay Phillippines United States South Africa Uruguay Vietnam
Figure 10: Diffusion of regulatory knowledge for GM corn varietiesSource: ISAAA 2015
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Figure 11: Diffusion of regulatory knowledge for GM corn varietiesSource: ISAAA 2015
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Analysis
• Disconnect between trade approvals• Strong HTIR approvals• Technology diffusion outpaces science-
based risk assessment• National approval constraint: sharing
problem or regulatory competition
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Conclusion
• No clear corn trends• Inefficient GM event regulations• Delaying benefit gains
• Klümper and Qaim’s (2014) meta-analysis of GM crops quantified a 22% yield increase for GM adopters
• Current regulation augments food insecurity
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Thank you!
Savannah Gleim, M.Sc.-Research Assistant
Department of Bioresource Policy, Business & Economics, College of Agriculture and Bioresources, University of SaskatchewanPhone 00-1-306-966-4043E-mail [email protected] www.saifood.caTwitter @SavannahGleim
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