Relatives Valuation

7/27/2019 Relatives Valuation

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/relatives-valuation 1/46

Relatives Valuation



The Essence of relativevaluation?

• In relative valuation, the value of an asset is compared to the valuesassessed by the market for similar or comparable assets.

• To do relative valuation then,

– we need to identify comparable assets and obtain market values for

these assets– convert these market values into standardized values, since the

absolute prices cannot be compared This process of standardizing

creates price multiples.

– compare the standardized value or multiple for the asset beinganalyzed to the standardized values for comparable asset,

controlling for any differences between the firms that might affect

the multiple, to judge whether the asset is under or over valued



Relative valuation is pervasive…

• Most valuations on are relative valuations.– Almost 85% of equity research reports are based upon a multiple

and comparables.

– More than 50% of all acquisition valuations are based upon

multiples– Rules of thumb based on multiples are not only common but are

often the basis for final valuation judgments.

• While there are more discounted cashflow valuations in consulting and

corporate finance, they are often relative valuations masquerading asdiscounted cash flow valuations.

– The objective in many discounted cashflow valuations is to back

into a number that has been obtained by using a multiple.

– The terminal value in a significant number of discounted cashflowvaluations is estimated using a multiple.



Why relative valuation?

“If you think I’m crazy, you should see theguy who lives across the hall”

Jerry Seinfeld talking about Kramer in a Seinfeld episode

“ A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation”

H.H. Munro

“ If you are going to screw up, make sure that you have lots of company”

Ex-portfolio manager



So, you believe only in intrinsic value?

Here’s why you should still care about

relative value

• Even if you are a true believer in discounted cashflowvaluation, presenting your findings on a relative valuation

basis will make it more likely that your

findings/recommendations will reach a receptive audience.

• In some cases, relative valuation can help find weak spots

in discounted cash flow valuations and fix them.

• The problem with multiples is not in their use but in their

abuse. If we can find ways to frame multiples right, weshould be able to use them better.



Multiples are just standardizedestimates of price…

• You can standardize either the equity value of an asset or the value of the assetitself, which goes in the numerator.

• You can standardize by dividing by the

– Earnings of the asset

• Price/Earnings Ratio (PE) and variants (PEG and Relative PE)

• Value/EBIT• Value/EBITDA

• Value/Cash Flow

– Book value of the asset

• Price/Book Value(of Equity) (PBV)

• Value/ Book Value of Assets

• Value/Replacement Cost (Tobin’s Q)

– Revenues generated by the asset

• Price/Sales per Share (PS)

• Value/Sales– Asset or Industry Specific Variable (Price/kwh, Price per ton of steel ....)



The Four Steps to Understanding

Multiples• Define the multiple

– In use, the same multiple can be defined in different ways by

different users. When comparing and using multiples, estimated bysomeone else, it is critical that we understand how the multipleshave been estimated

• Describe the multiple

– Too many people who use a multiple have no idea what its crosssectional distribution is. If you do not know what the crosssectional distribution of a multiple is, it is difficult to look at anumber and pass judgment on whether it is too high or low.

• Analyze the multiple

– It is critical that we understand the fundamentals that drive eachmultiple, and the nature of the relationship between the multipleand each variable.

• Apply the multiple

– Defining the comparable universe and controlling for differences isfar more difficult in practice than it is in theory.



Definitional Tests

• Is the multiple consistently defined?– Both the value (the numerator) and the standardizing variable

( the denominator) should be to the same claimholders in the

firm. In other words, the value of equity should be divided by

equity earnings or equity book value, and firm value should be

divided by firm earnings or book value.

• Is the multiple uniformly estimated?

– The variables used in defining the multiple should be estimated

uniformly across assets in the “comparable firm” list.

– If earnings-based multiples are used, the accounting rules to

measure earnings should be applied consistently across assets. The

same rule applies with book-value based multiples.



Descriptive Tests

• What is the average and standard deviation for this multiple, across the

universe (market)?

• What is the median for this multiple?

– The median for this multiple is often a more reliable comparison

point.• How large are the outliers to the distribution, and how do we deal with

the outliers?

– Throwing out the outliers may seem like an obvious solution, but if

the outliers all lie on one side of the distribution (they usually arelarge positive numbers), this can lead to a biased estimate.

• Are there cases where the multiple cannot be estimated? Will ignoring

these cases lead to a biased estimate of the multiple?

• How has this multiple changed over time?





Application Tests

• Given the firm that we are valuing, what is a “comparable” firm?

– While traditional analysis is built on the premise that firms in the

same sector are comparable firms, valuation theory would suggest

that a comparable firm is one which is similar to the one being

analyzed in terms of fundamentals.

– There is no reason why a firm cannot be compared with

another firm in a very different business, if the two firms have

the same risk, growth and cash flow characteristics.

• Given the comparable firms, how do we adjust for differences across

firms on the fundamentals?

– It is impossible to find an exactly identical firm to the one you

are valuing.



Choosing Between the Multiples

• There are dozens of multiples that can be potentially usedto value an individual firm.

• In addition, relative valuation can be relative to a sector (orcomparable firms) or to the entire market (using theregressions, for instance)

• Since there can be only one final estimate of value, thereare choices at this stage:– Use a simple average of the valuations obtained using a number of

different multiples

– Use a weighted average of the valuations obtained using a nmberof different multiples

– Choose one of the multiples and base your valuation on thatmultiple



Picking one Multiple

• This is usually the best way to approach this issue. While a range of

values can be obtained from a number of multiples, the “best estimate”value is obtained using one multiple.

• The multiple that is used can be chosen in one of two ways:– Use the multiple that best fits your objective. Thus, if you want the

company to be undervalued, you pick the multiple that yields the highest

value.– Use the multiple that has the highest R-squared in the sector when

regressed against fundamentals. Thus, if you have tried PE, PBV, PS, etc.and run regressions of these multiples against fundamentals, use themultiple that works best at explaining differences across firms in thatsector.

– Use the multiple that seems to make the most sense for that sector, givenhow value is measured and created.



A More Intuitive Approach

• Managers in every sector tend to focus on specificvariables when analyzing strategy and performance. Themultiple used will generally reflect this focus.

– In retailing: The focus is usually on same store sales (turnover) andprofit margins. Not surprisingly, the revenue multiple is mostcommon in this sector.

– In financial services: The emphasis is usually on return on equity.Book Equity is often viewed as a scarce resource, since capitalratios are based upon it. Price to book ratios dominate.

– In technology: Growth is usually the dominant theme. PEG ratioswere invented in this sector.



Most commonly used multiples

• As a general rule of thumb, the following table provides a way of picking a

multiple for a sectorSector Multiple Used Rationale

Cyclical Manufacturing PE Often with normalized earnings

High Tech, High Growth PEG Big differences in growth acrossfirms

High Growth/No Earnings PS, VS Assume future margins will be good

Heavy Infrastructure VEBITDA Firms in sector have losses in earlyyears and earnings can vary

depending on depreciation method

Financial Services PBV Book value often marked to market

Retailing PS If leverage is similar across firms

VS If leverage is different

Internet and Cellular P to Customer

Soft drinks, Consumer Products P to Units

Cement, commodities P to Output



Most commonly used multiples

PER EV/EBITDA PBV P/S

• Building and

construction

• Engineering

• Defense

• Healthcare

• Oil and gas

(integrated)

• Luxury goods

• Technology

• Utilities

• Chemicals

• Metal and

mining

• Building and

construction

• Engineering

• Defense

• Food producers

• Healthcare

• Leisure

• Telecom

• Transport

• Banks

• Paper

• Automobiles

• Defense

(E/S)

• Engineering

(E/S)

• Luxury goods



PE Ratio: Understanding theFundamentals

• To understand the fundamentals, start with a basic equitydiscounted cash flow model.

• With the dividend discount model,

• Dividing both sides by the current earnings per share,

P 0 =

DPS 1

r − g n

P0

EPS 0= PE =

Payout Ratio * (1 + g n )

r- gn



Price Earnings Ratio

• PE = Market Price per Share / Earnings perShare

• There are a number of variants on the basic

PE ratio in use. They are based upon how theprice and the earnings are defined.

• Price:

– is usually the current price – is sometimes the average price for the year




• PE = Market Price per Share / Earnings perShare

• There are a number of variants on the basic

PE ratio in use. They are based upon how theprice and the earnings are defined.

• Price:

– is usually the current price – is sometimes the average price for the year




• EPS: – earnings per share in most recent financial

year

– earnings per share in trailing 12 months(Trailing PE)

– forecasted earnings per share next year

(Forward PE) – forecasted earnings per share in futureyear




• One way to get a PE ratio more up to date is to usea trailing PE, which takes the earnings for the

most recent accounting periods that add up to 12

months• In developed markets, where companies declare

results every three months, a 12-month trailing PE

can be much closer to reality than a figure basedon the last annual results



Using the Fundamental Model to

Estimate PE For a High GrowthFirm

• The price-earnings ratio for a high growth firm can also berelated to fundamentals. In the special case of the two-stage dividend discount model, this relationship can bemade explicit fairly simply:

– For a firm that does not pay what it can afford to in dividends,

substitute FCFE/Earnings for the payout ratio.• Dividing both sides by the earnings per share:

P0 =EPS0 * Payout Ratio *(1+ g)* 1−

(1+g)n

(1+ r)n

r - g+

EPS0 * Payout Ratio n *(1+ g)n *(1+gn )

(r-gn )(1+ r)n

P0

EPS0

=

Payout Ratio * (1 + g) * 1 −(1 + g)n

(1+ r)n

r - g+

Payout Ratio n *(1+ g)n * (1 + gn )

( r - gn )(1+ r)n



A Simple Example

• Assume that you have been asked to estimate the PE ratiofor a firm which has the following characteristics:Variable High Growth PhaseStable GrowthPhase

Expected Growth Rate25% 8%

Payout Ratio 20% 50%

Beta 1.00 1.00

Number of years 5 years Forever after year5

• Riskfree rate = T.Bond Rate = 6%

• Required rate of return = 6% + 1(5.5%)= 11.5%

PE =

0.2 * (1.25) * 1−(1.25)

5

(1.115)5

(.115 - .25)+ 0.5 * (1.25)

5

*(1.08)(.115 - .08) (1.115)

5 = 28.75



Issues

• Negative Earnings• Volatility of earnings



Using the entire crosssection: Aregression approach

• In contrast to the 'comparable firm'approach, the information in the entire

cross-section of firms can be used to predict

PE ratios.

• The simplest way of summarizing this

information is with a multiple regression,with the PE ratio as the dependent variable,

and proxies for risk, growth and payout

forming the independent variables.



Regression approach

EGR BetaPORPE ×+×+×+= 321 β β



Issues with regressionmethodology

• The basis regression assumes a linear relationshipbetween PE ratios and the financial proxies, and

that might not be appropriate.

• The independent variables are correlated with eachother. For example, high growth firms tend to have

high risk. This multi-collinearity makes

the coefficients of the regressions unreliable andmay explain the large changes in these coefficients

from period to period.



Issues with regressionmethodology

• The basic relationship between PE ratiosand financial variables itself might not be

stable, and if it shifts from year to year, the

predictions from the model may not bereliable.



Price Earnings Growth Ratio

• The PEG ratio is the ratio of price earnings to expectedgrowth in earnings per share.

PEG = PE / Expected Growth Rate in Earnings



Reasons for Increased Use of Value/EBITDA

1. The multiple can be computed even for firms that are reporting net

losses, since earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation areusually positive.

2. For firms in certain industries, such as cellular, which require asubstantial investment in infrastructure and long gestation periods, thismultiple seems to be more appropriate than the price/earnings ratio.

3. In leveraged buyouts, where the key factor is cash generated by the firmprior to all discretionary expenditures, the EBITDA is the measure of cash flows from operations that can be used to support debt payment atleast in the short term.

4. By looking at cashflows prior to capital expenditures, it may provide a

better estimate of “optimal value”, especially if the capitalexpenditures are unwise or earn substandard returns.

5. By looking at the value of the firm and cashflows to the firm it allowsfor comparisons across firms with different financial leverage.



Price/Book Value Multiples



Price-Book Value Ratio:Definition

• The price/book value ratio is the ratio of the market valueof equity to the book value of equity, i.e., the measure of shareholders’ equity in the balance sheet.

• Price/Book Value = Market Value of Equity

Book Value of Equity• Consistency Tests:

– If the market value of equity refers to the market value of equity of common stock outstanding, the book value of common equity

should be used in the denominator.– If there is more that one class of common stock outstanding, the

market values of all classes (even the non-traded classes) needs tobe factored in.



Estimating PBV fromFundamentals

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

gr

gPoR ROE

BV

P

gr

gPoR ROE BV

gr

gPoR EPS

gr

DPS P

−

+××=

−

+×××=

−

+××=

−=

)1(

)1(

)1(

0

0

0

0

10



Estimating PBV fromFundamentals

n

n

n

n

gk

g ROE

BV

P

PoR ROE ggk

gPoR ROE

BV

P

−

−

=∴

−×=

−

+××=

0

0

0

0

)1(Given,

)1(



Two Stage Model

nnn

n

n

n

n

n

k gk

ggPoR EPS gk

k ggPoR EPS

P

)1)((

)1()1(

))1()1(1()1(

0

0

0

+−

+×+××+

−

+

+−×+××

=



PBV Ratio for High GrowthFirm: Example• Assume that you have been asked to estimate the PBV

ratio for a firm which has the following characteristics:High Growth Phase Stable Growth

Phase

Length of Period 5 years Forever after year 5

Return on Equity 25% 15%Payout Ratio 20% 60%

Growth Rate .80*.25=.20 .4*.15=.06

Beta 1.25 1.00Cost of Equity 12.875% 11.50%

The riskfree rate is 6% and the risk premium used is 5.5%.







Regression

ROE EGR

betaPayout PBV

43

21

β β

β β

+

+++=



Price Sales Ratio: Definition

• The price/sales ratio is the ratio of themarket value of equity to the sales.

• Price/ Sales= Market Value of Equity

Total Revenues• Consistency Tests

– The price/sales ratio is internally inconsistent,

since the market value of equity is divided bythe total revenues of the firm.



Price to Sales Ratio

• Available for all firms, never negative• Less difficult to manipulate

• Less volatile

• Convenient handle for examining changes

in pricing policies and other corporate

strategic decisions• Does not account for cost control



Stable Firm

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

gk

gPoR

Sales

P

gk

gPoRSales

gk gPoR EPS

gk

gPoR EPS gk

DP

−

+××=

−

+×××=

−

+××=

−

+××=

−

=

)1(MarginProfit

)1(MarginProfit

)1(

)1(

0

0

0

0

0

1



High Growth

+−

+×+×+

−

+

+−×+×

×=

n

nn

nn

n

n

n

k gk

ggPoR

gk k

ggPoR

Sales

P

)1)((

)1()1(

)

)1(

)1(1()1(

MarginProfit

0

0



Price Sales Ratios and ProfitMargins• The key determinant of price-sales ratios is the profit

margin.

• A decline in profit margins has a two-fold effect.

– First, the reduction in profit margins reduces the price-sales ratiodirectly.

– Second, the lower profit margin can lead to lower growth andhence lower price-sales ratios.

Expected growth rate = Retention ratio * Return on Equity

= Retention Ratio *(Net Profit / Sales) * ( Sales / BV of Equity)

= Retention Ratio * Profit Margin * Sales/BV of Equity



Price/Sales Ratio: An Example

High Growth Phase Stable Growth

Length of Period 5 years Forever after year 5

Net Margin 10% 6%

Sales/BV of Equity 2.5 2.5

Beta 1.25 1.00Payout Ratio 20% 60%

Expected Growth (.1)(2.5)(.8)=20% (.06)(2.5)(.4)=.06

Riskless Rate =6%

PS =

0.10 * 0.2 * (1.20) * 1−(1.20)5

(1.12875)5

(.12875 - .20)+

0.06 * 0.60 * (1.20)5* (1.06)

(.115-.06) (1.12875)5

= 1.06

Undervalued and Overvalued



SecuritiesOvervalued

Low Margin

High P/S

High Margin

High P/S

Low MarginLow P/S

UndervaluedHigh Margin

Low P/S

Profit Margin

P/Sales

Date post:	02-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	niraj-kumar
View:	216 times
Download:	0 times

Relatives Valuation

Documents