Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable Energyand Climate Solutions for 2050
Daniel M. Kammen
Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the EnvironmentEnergy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
Department of Nuclear EngineeringUniversity of California, Berkeley
Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu
Climate 2050: Technology and Policy SolutionsMontreal, Canada, October 25, 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
High and low carbon pathways
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2010 2020 2040 2050
Glo
bal C
arbo
n Em
issi
ons,
GT
2030
WRE 450 (IPCC)
WRE 550 (IPCC)
WRE 1000 (IPCC)
Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation.
2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation.
>900 ppm TrajectoryEnergy by 2050:• Coal over 2x, no Carbon
Capture & Storage (CCS), some coal to liquids.
• Oil up 50%• Gas over 2x• Biofuels make up 10% of
vehicle fuel mix.• Electricity 1/3 of final energy.• Modest increase in nuclear.• Renewables provide 1/3 of
electricity generation.• Vehicle efficiency up 50%.
<550 ppm TrajectoryEnergy by 2050:• Coal up 50%, but half of
power stations use CCS.• Oil down 10-15%.• Gas nearly 2-3x (note: adds
volatility)• Biofuels make up 20% of
vehicle fuel mix.• Green Hydrogen in use• Strong shift to electricity as
final energy (~50% final energy).
• Large increase in nuclear.• Renewables provide half of
electricity generation.• Vehicle efficiency up 100%• Sustainable biomass
practices
WRE1000 - we start planning nowWRE 550 - we start acting nowWRE 450 - we started to act in 2000, or …
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S
. GH
G E
mis
sion
s (G
T C
eq.
)
Historic U. S.
emissions
Business as usual (EIA)
Kyoto protocol
Administration intensity target
Climate Stabilization Zone
Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,
The California commitment - scaled to the nation
California AB 32, AB1493& EE 3-05
Scaled from CAto the nationCA targets scaled from 35 to 300 million
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
New Coal by the Decades
0
200
400
600
800
GW
Co
al
Other Developing 43 90 128
India 16 48 79
China 150 168 226
Transition 1 11 19
OECD 12 184 218
2003-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
Source: IEA, WEO 2004
221
500
670
>$1 trillion in capital
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Athabasca basin tar sand mine: 10% bitumen by weight in the soil.~ $30/barrel of energy required to refine
COAL IS NOT THE ONLY ISSUE:UNCONVENTIONAL HYDROCARBONS ARE PLENTIFUL:
TAR SANDS
SHALE OIL
DEEP WATER, POLAR, AND OTHER PETROLEUM RESERVES
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduCH4 → H2S separation, then H2 & elemental sulfur separation
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Per Capita Electricity ConsumptionkWh/person
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
US w/out Cal and NYUS without CalUnited StatesNew YorkCalifornia
Savings possible equal tototal U. S. energy imports
Savings:Energy, $, carbon
Danishaverage
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)26 states + Washington, DC, and counting
State Goal
PA: 18%¹ by 2020NJ: 22.5% by 2021
CT: 10% by 2010
MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase
WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal
IA: 105 MW
MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +Xcel mandate of
1,125 MW wind by 2010
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
*NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 15% by 2025
CA: 20% by 2010
NV: 20% by 2015
ME: 30% by 2000;10% by 2017 goal - new RE
State RPS
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewablesPA: 8% Tier I (renewables)
HI: 20% by 2020
RI: 15% by 2020
CO: 10% by 2015
DC: 11% by 2022
NY: 24% by 2013
MT: 15% by 2015
*DE: 10% by 2019
IL: 8% by 2013
VT: RE meets load growth by 2012
Solar water heating eligible
*WA: 15% by 2020
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Gre
en
jo
bs
create
d(t
ho
usa
nd
s o
f p
ers
on
years
)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ren
ew
ab
le e
nerg
y g
en
era
ted
(TW
h)
Green Collar Job Creation
California
Pennsylvania
New YorkTexas
Illinois
Nevada
Other 18 states with an RPS
plus Federal RPS
Federal + state RPS yields +348,000 jobs in 2025
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Solar & Distributed GenerationProvisions in RPS Policies
PA: 0.5% solar PV by 2020
TX: 500 MW non-wind
NM: triple credit for solar electric
AZ: 4.5% DG by 2025
NV: 1% solar by 2015;2.4 to 2.45 multiplier for PV
MD: double credit for solar electric
CO: 0.4% solar electric by 2015
DC: 0.386% solar electric by 2022
NY: 0.1542% customer-sited by 2013
DE: triple credit for solar electric
Solar water heating counts towards solar set-aside
WA: double credit for DG
DG: Distributed Generation
NJ: 2.12% solar electric by 2021
CA: 3,000 MW or more via SB1 & Million solar roofs
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Solar Energy for Many Applications
Moscone Center, SF: 675,000 W
Kenyan PV market: Average system: 18WLargest penetration rate of any nation
Residential Solar: 1000 - 4000 Watts/homeCA Solar Initiative/Million Solar Roofs:
3,000 - 10,000 MW of solar to be built
California Japan2005 Annual PV Installations 50 MW 290 MWAverage Cost for Residential System $8.8/Wac $7.4/WacAverage Cost Reduction from 99-04 5.2%/year 8.9%/year
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Roll on PV cells.
Solar photovoltaic installations of thin film cells, in Germany
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Boiling Water ReactorPressurized Water Reactor
Reactor Type
A 1: Westinghouse <700 MWe 2: Westinghouse 700–1000 MWW 3: Westinghouse >1000 MWf 4: Babcock & Wilcox^ 5: Combustion EngineeringG 6: GE <700 MWk 7: GE 700–1000 MW] 8: GE > 1000 MW
Reactor Cohort
0 25 50 75 100Cost Rank
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
Life
time
leve
lized
ele
ctric
ity c
ost (
2004
$ p
er k
Wh)
k] ] k k ]
]G
k k kG
G
]
]W ]
]] ]
] ]
]]
k
] ]
Gk
k
Fitzpatrick
Susquehanna 1
Perry Columbia
River Bend
Fermi Hope Creek
Nine Mile Pt 2
Clinton
Shoreham
f f e Ae Aff
AA ^ e WA e ^ e W e ^ ^f W WW
e e ^ f e e We WWWWW ^ f ^^ ^ ^ e
WWW
f W^ ^
WW W
We WWW
We
^W
W
e
W
Oconee 1 Oconee 2
Surry 1 Turkey Pt 3
Surry 2 Turkey Pt 4
Oconee 3
Arkansas 1
Diablo Canyon 2 Vogtle 2
Shearon Harris South Texas 1 South Texas 2 Diablo Canyon 1 Comanche Pk. 2
Rancho Seco Seabrook 1 Millstone 3 Watts Bar 1
Beaver Valley 2
Comanche Pk 1
Hultman, Koomey & Kammen (2007) ES&T
The Cost of Nuclear Power from the U. S. Civilian Reactor Fleet
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a Low-Carbon Fuel, but it can be
(California Executive Order S-7-01)
FT (Coa
l)
Gasoli
ne (S
hale)
Gasoli
ne (T
ar San
ds)
FT (Coa
l CCD)
Gasoli
neEtha
nol (C
orn C
oal)
Ethano
l (Tod
ay)
Ethano
l (Corn
NG)
Biodies
elEtha
nol (C
orn Biom
ass)
Ethano
l (Cell
ulose
)
Ethano
l (Corn
Biomas
s CCD)
Ethano
l (Cell
ulose
CCD)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1
lbs
CO
2/ga
l gas
olin
e eq
uiva
lent
FT (Coal)Gasoline (Shale)Gasoline (Tar Sands)FT (Coal CCD)GasolineEthanol (Corn Coal)Ethanol (Today)Ethanol (Corn NG)BiodieselEthanol (Corn Biomass)Ethanol (Cellulose)Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)
2007 standard
2020 standard
Plug In Partners / e.g.CalCars.org
Kammen laboratory: http://rael.berkeley.edu/ebamm - version 2
From a Low Carbon Fuel Standardto a Sustainable Fuel Standard
Beyond carbon we must examine:
- water and nutrient demand- compatibility with local practices
- food/fuel synergies, not competitionCell
ulosic
etha
nol (s
witchg
rass)
Hydrog
en (fr
om bi
omas
s)
Electric
ity (C
alifor
nia av
erage
)
Electric
ity (fr
om ga
s with
RPS)
Hydrog
en (fr
om na
tural
gas)
Diesel
(Cali
fornia
)
Corn et
hano
l (gas
-fired
elec
tricity
)
Lique
fied p
etrole
um ga
s
Corn et
hano
l (Midw
est a
verag
e)
Corn et
hano
l (coa
l-fired
elec
tricity
)
Gasoli
ne (C
alifor
nia re
formula
ted)
Biom
ass-
to-liq
uids d
iesel
Cellulo
sic e
than
ol (p
oplar
)
Coal-to
-liquid
s dies
el
Corn et
hano
l (gas
elec
tricity
, cop
roduc
t)
Corn et
hano
l (stov
er-fire
d elec
tricity
)
Compre
ssed
natur
al ga
s
Biodies
el (fro
m soyb
eans
)
Cellulo
sic et
hano
l (prai
rie gr
ass)
Electric
ity (f
rom bi
omas
s)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
GH
G E
mis
sion
s (g
CO
2-e/
MJ)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
A promising crop: Miscanthus X Giganticus
Top left: summer Miscanthus growth (sterile)
Top right: Miscanthus stands (UK)
Right: winter harvest of the C4 plant,Miscanthus after growing season and nutrients and water returned to the soil
Photo credits: S. Long (U. of Illinois/EBI)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Land Required to Satisfy Current U.S. Mobility Demand
1,200600200 400 800 1,0000New Land Required (million acres)
CRP Land (30 MM)
Light DutyHeavy Duty
U.S. Cropland (400 MM)
II. Corn stover (72%) -50 Feasibility of stover utilization enhanced by rotation
I. Soy switchgrass or large biomass soy -10
Agricultural integrationEarly-cut switchgrass produces more feed protein/acrethan soy; similar benefits from “large biomass soy”
Vehicle efficiency 2.5X↑ 165
Advanced processing 41091 gal Geq/ton
1,030Status quo 36 gal Geq/ton, current mpg, no ag. integration, 5 tons/acre*yr
Biomass yield 2.5X↑ 65
III. Other Winter cover crops, other residues, increased productivityof food crops, increased production on under-utilized land…
U.S. mobility demand, the largest per capita in the world, could be met from land now used for agriculture while maintaining food production (L. Lynd)
Vehicle Types
Energy Biosciences Institute
University of California, BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
William Collins, LBNL
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Forest Resources Under Stress(Bailis, Ezzati and Kammen, Science, 2005)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Ethanol can Displace Gasoline Consumption in Africa
• Using only post-harvestcrop losses as inputs (up to 50 percent of yields), biofuels can play a significant role
• Implications for poverty alleviation, job creation, urban health, and foreign currency savings
• Metrics for ecological and cultural sustainability must be part of the planning process
Source: FAO/IIASA 2002, EIA 2007, ICRISAT 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
按照当前的增长速度，25年内中国的建筑面积将翻一番。At current growth rates, the built area of China will double within 25 years
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
中国采取大规模的高效住房建筑方式来满足这一增长速度——每年建筑1100万套 ‘ 超级大院 ’ 住房
China is efficient at building housing on a mass scale to meet this rate of growth – 11 million new ‘SuperBlock’ housing units are built each year
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
“我们将大力发展循环经济，降低能源和资源消耗，构建一个资源保护和环境友好型社会，确保在经济发展、人口、资源和环境中实现稳步平衡。”
中国国家主席胡锦涛2006年11月17日在亚太经济合作组织(APEC)工商领导人峰会上的讲话
"We will endeavor to develop a circular economy, lower energy and resources consumption and build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society and ensure sound balance between economic development, population,
resources and environment."Chinese President Hu Jintao, CEO summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Nov. 17 2006
人们认识到可持续发展的需要……The need for sustainable development is recognized…
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Qingdao EcoBlock Prototype: Site Location
BRT
青岛生态小区：位置Qingdao Eco-Site: Location
(Quingdao City/UC Berkeley/ARUP collaboration)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
全面系统思考Whole Systems Thinking
风力
食物残渣
太阳
电力
电力
化粪池
人造湿地
活机器
绿色废物反渗透
紫外线消毒
先进的雨水处理
沉淀池沉淀池
雨水
城市饮用水供应
电力
发电厂
厌氧消化池
绿色
污泥和食物
污泥
食物残渣
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Gasoline
Air travel
Gasoline
Automanufacturing
Auto services
public trans.
airlinespublic trans.
Electricity
Naturalgas
Other fuels
Construction
Financingwater & sewage
electricitynatural gasother fuels
Meat
Eating out
Fruit & veg.
Snack food
cereals
DairyAlcohol & tobacco
ClothingHousehold equip.
entertainment.cleaning supplies.
furniture.
healthcaregiving
education
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household (LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases
IndirectDirect44%
56%
05
101520253035404550
Total
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
United States’ Public and Private Sector Energy Research and Development Spending
Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.
-
2
4
6
8
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
R&
D (2
002
$b)
Public energy R&DPrivate energy R&D
Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.
And Nemet, dissertation, 2007
Patents and R&D Funding Correlated
Energy Biosciences Institute
University of California, BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
PROPOSAL: $620 MILLION, 10 YEAR PROGRAMTHE INSTITUTE WILL BE A HUB FOR GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities
Vattenfall, 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities
Vattenfall, 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Enabling a Clean Energy Future• Clean energy sources today are evolving rapidly, but are a
small component of our overall energy system• Rapid growth of the clean energy sector will require a
coordinated commitment to technology push and demand pull
o Aggressive R&D will need to be coupled with strong support for clean energy market expansion
o Business and consumer involvement is vital
• One new California/Germany/Iceland per year, at minimum, is needed, and we must be successful in making current regulations work
• Pricing carbon/greenhouse gas emissions is vital to moving from sector support strategies to long-term sustainability policies
