Renewable Energy Overview - University of California ... · Renewable Energy Sources Ali Shakouri...

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009

Overview of Renewable Energy SourcesAli ShakouriBaskin School of EngineeringUniversity of California Santa Cruzhttp://quantum.soe.ucsc.edu/

Santa Cruz

LoCal-RE Summer Program, Santa Cruz, CA; 28 July 2009

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34%

8%

28%

6%

Share of WorldTotal

24%38%

26%

23%

7%

6%

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1980-2030

13TW

2050: 25-30TW1 Quad= 1015 Btu = 1.055 x 1018J

US Department of Energy; Energy Information Administration (2007)

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C. J. Campbell: “The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion,” Multi-Sci. Publ. Co., Ltd., Essex, UK, 2003

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S. Koonin, Chief Scientist BP, 2008nrg.caltech.edu

Oil Resources

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Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

400,000 years of greenhouse-gas & temperature history based on bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice

Last time CO2 >300 ppm was 25 million years ago.

John P. Holdren, 2006

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009US Energy Consumption

DOE Energy Information Administration (2007)

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Martin Green, UNSW

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Cost of Renewable EnergyLevelized cents/kWh in constant $2000

PV

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

100

80

60

40

20

0

CO

E c

ents

/kW

hWind

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h

40

30

20

10

0

10

8

6

4

2

0

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h Geothermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Biomass

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

15

12

9

6

3

0

CO

E c

ents

/kW

hSolar thermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

706050403020100

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h

Source: NREL Energy Analysis OfficeThese graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002

Keith Wipke, NREL

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Microprocessor Evolution

1,000,0001,000,000

100,000100,000

10,00010,000

1,0001,000

1010

100100

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1 Billion 1 Billion TransistorsTransistors

808680868028680286

i386i386i486i486

PentiumPentium®®

KK

PentiumPentium®® IIII

’’7575 ’’8080 ’’8585 ’’9090 ’’9595 ’’0000 ’’0505 ’’1010

PentiumPentium®® IIIIIIPentiumPentium®® 44

’’1515

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Airplane Speed/Efficiency Evolution

McMasters & Cummings, Journal of Aircraft, Jan-Feb 2002

US Energy Intensity (MJ) per available seat km@ 160kg payload/seat

Airplane Speed

NLR-CR-2005-669;Peeters P.M., MiddelJ., Hoolhorst A.

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Nuclear

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Felix’s forecasts of US energy consumption in year 2000 (early 1970’s)

Vaclav Smil,Energy at the Crossroads,2005

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Electric Potential of Wind

• Significant potential in US Great Plains, inner Mongolia and northwest China

• U.S.:Use 6% of land suitable for wind energy development; practical electrical generation potential of ≈0.5 TW

• Globally: Theoretical: 27% of earth’s land is class >3 => 50 TW Practical: 2 TW potential (4% utilization)

Off-shore potential is larger but must be close to grid to be interesting; (no installation > 20 km offshore now)

Nate Lewis, Caltech

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Turbine Sizes

Trend toward bigger turbine sizesHelge Aagaard Madsen, DTU Riso

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http://www.eere.energy.gov/

2008 Wind Technologies Market Report

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Offshore Wind Farm

Nysted, DenmarkA. Shakouri 11/25/2008

EE 181 Renewable Energies in PracticeCA-Denmark Summer Program

2008

• 72x 2.3MW (delivery ~3% loss)• 2M euros/turbine (2002) • 250 tonnes/turbine (55 tonnes the

rotor and blades)• 97% availability• Average load: 30% of full capacity

• Service: 1 week/year/turbine• Change oil after 5 years (900 liters/turbine)• Lightening probability/ turbine (once in 7

years); 5 blades repaired

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Geothermal Energy Potential

• Mean terrestrial geothermal flux at earth’s surface 0.057 W/m2

• Total continental geothermal energy potential 11.6 TW• Oceanic geothermal energy potential 30 TW

• Wells “run out of steam” in 5 years• Power from a good geothermal well (pair) 5 MW• Power from typical Saudi oil well 500 MW• Needs drilling technology breakthrough

(from exponential $/m to linear $/m) to become economical)

Nate Lewis, Caltech

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Energy from the Oceans?

Thermal Differences

Tides

Currents

Ken Pedrotti, UCSC

Waves

http://www.bluenergy.com/

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Biomass Energy Potential

Global: Top Down

• Requires Large Areas Because Inefficient (0.3%)• 3 TW requires ≈ 600 million hectares = 6x1012 m2

• 20 TW requires ≈ 4x1013 m2

• Total land area of earth: 1.3x1014 m2

• Hence requires 4/13 = 31% of total land area

Nate Lewis, Caltech

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Amount of land needed for 20 TW at 1% efficiency:

9% of land

Chris Somerville, UC Berkeley

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Corn Ethanol Greenhouse Gas Emission

Farrell et al. (Science 311, 2006)

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Steve Koonin, BP

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Biofuels

Dan Kammen, Berkeley

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Steven Chu, 2007

Energy Input (Fertilizer, etc.)

Ecosystem Impact

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Solar Energy Potential

• Theoretical: 1.2x105 TW solar energy potential• Practical: ≈ 600 TW solar energy potential• Onshore electricity generation potential of ≈60 TW (10% conversion efficiency):

• Photosynthesis: 90 TW

• Generating 12 TW (1998 Global Primary Power) requires0.1% of Globe = 5x1011 m2 (i.e., 5.5% of U.S.A.)

Nate Lewis, Caltech

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009World Insolation

12 TW

6.0-6.9

4.0-4.9

2.0-2.9

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Best Research-Cell Efficiencies

Effic

iency

(%)

Universityof Maine

Boeing

Boeing

Boeing

BoeingARCO

NREL

Boeing

Euro-CIS

200019951990198519801975

NREL/Spectrolab

NRELNREL

JapanEnergy

Spire

No. CarolinaState University

Multijunction ConcentratorsCrystalline Si CellsThin Film (Cu(In,Ga)Se2, CdTe ,

Amorphous Si:H)Organic Cells

Varian

RCA

Solarex

UNSW

UNSW

ARCO

UNSWUNSW

UNSWSpire Stanford

Westing-house

UNSWGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech Sharp

AstroPower

NREL

AstroPower

Spectrolab

NREL

MasushitaMonosolar Kodak

Kodak

AMETEK

PhotonEnergy

UniversitySo. Florida

NREL

NREL

Princeton UniversityKonstanz NREL

NRELCu(In,Ga)Se2

14x concentration

NREL

UnitedSolar

United Solar

RCA

RCARCA

RCARCA

RCA

026587136

Spectrolab

University CaliforniaBerkeley

Solarex12

8

4

0

16

20

24

28

32

36

L.L. Kazmerski, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, National Center for Photovoltaics

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Solar Spectrum

Bandgap of Si

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Cost/Efficiency

1st generation high-cost medium efficiency2nd generation low-cost

low efficiency

3rd generation low-cost high efficiency

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BoyleRenewable

Energy Sources

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BASIC RESEARCH NEEDS FOR SOLAR ENERGY UTILIZATION

Chair: Nathan S. Lewis, Caltech, George Crabtree, Argonne

PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS• 50% Efficient Solar Cells • Plastic Photovoltaics• Nanostructures: Low Cost and High Efficiencies • Fuels from Water and Sunlight: Efficient Photoelectrolysis• Leveraging Photosynthesis for Production of Biofuel• Bio-inspired Smart Matrix for Solar Fuels Production• Solar-powered Catalysts for Energy-rich Fuels Formation • Bio-inspired Molecular Assemblies for Integrating Photon-to-fuels Pathways• Achieving Defect-tolerant and Self-repairing Solar Conversion Systems• Solar Thermochemical Fuel Production• New Experimental and Theoretical Tools • Solar Energy Conversion Materials by Design • Materials Architectures for Solar Energy: Assembling Complex Structures

April 2005

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009A. Shakouri 11/25/2008

Potential of Carbon Free Energy Sources

From: Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization, DOE 2005

Chris Somerville, UC Berkeley

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Vaclav SmilEnergy at the

Crossroads

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Energy Storage Options

Specific Energy (Wh/kg)

Spe

cific

Pow

er (W

/kg)

Combustion Engine

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RejectedEnergy 61%

Lawrence Livermore National Lab., http://eed.llnl.gov/flow

Power ~3.3TW

1.3TW


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Biomass

Petroleum

Coal

Waste Energy

India’s Energy Consumption 2005

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Direct Conversion of Heat into ElectricityDirect Conversion of Heat into Electricity

TVS

∆∆

=Seebeck coefficient

(1821)

∆V~ S ∆T

Electrical Conductor

Hot Cold

Ι

Rload = RTE internal

Efficiency function of thermoelectric figure-of-merit (Z)

)()()( 2

2

tyconductivithermaltyconductivielectricalSeebeckZ

kSZ

=

=σ

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Power Generation Efficiencies of Different Technologies

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

400 600 800 1000 1200

ZTm=0.5ZTm=1ZTm=2ZTm=3Carnot limit

Thot

(K)

0.5

Ener

gy C

onve

rsio

n Ef

ficie

ncy

3

12

Carnot

Solar/ Rankine

Geothermal/ Organic Rankine

ZTavg=20Coal/ Rankine

Cement/ Org. Rankine

Solar/ Stirling

C. Vining 2008

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators

(Voyager, Galileo, Cassini, …)• 55 kg, 300 We, ‘only’ 7 % conversion efficiency• But > 1,000,000,000,000 device hours without a single

failure

B-doped Si0.78Ge0.22

P-doped Si0.78Ge0.22

B-doped Si0.63Ge0.36

P-doped Si0.63Ge0.36

Hot Shoe (Mo-Si)

Cold Shoe

n-type legp-type leg

SiGe unicoupleCronin Vining, ZT Services

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Microrefrigerators on a chip

Featured in Nature Science Update, Physics Today, AIP April 2001

• Monolithic integration on silicon• ∆Tmax~4C at room temp. (7C at 100C)

UCSC, UCSB, HRL Labs

Relative Temp. (C)

50µm1 µm

Hot Electron

Cold Electron

Nanoscale heat transport and microrefrigerators on a chip; A. Shakouri, Proceedings of IEEE, July 2006

J. Christofferson

Si (10nm)Si0.89Ge0.1C0.01

Ali Shakouri, Director

Thermionic Energy Conversion Center

4 nm (Zr,W)N

2 nm ScN

• Engineering current and heat flow using nanostructures

•Goal: direct conversion of heat into electricity with > 20-30% efficiency (ZT>2.5)

UCSC (Bian, Kobayashi), Berkeley (Majumdar), BSSTInc. (Bell), Delaware (Zide), MIT (Ram), Purdue (Sands),

UCSB (Bowers, Gossard)ONR, DARPA

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009A. Shakouri 11/25/2008

Nate Lewis, Caltech

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Plan B for EnergySeptember 2006; Scientific American; W. Wayt Gibbs

• WAVES AND TIDES (Reality factor 5)

• HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND (Reality factor 4)

• NANOTECH SOLAR CELLS (Reality factor 4)

• DESIGNER MICROBES (Reality factor 4)

• NUCLEAR FUSION (Reality factor 3)

• SPACE-BASED SOLAR (Reality factor 3)

• A GLOBAL SUPERGRID (Reality factor 2)

• SCI-FI SOLUTIONS (Reality factor 1)

– Cold Fusion and Bubble Fusion– Matter-Antimatter Reactors

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John Bowers, UCSB

World Average

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A FRAMEWORK FOR PRO-ENVIRONMENTAL BEHAVIOURSDefra January 2008

The headline behaviour goals-Install insulation -Better energy management -Install microgeneration-Increase recycling -Waste less (food)-Moreresponsible water usage-Use more efficient vehicles -Use car less for short trips -Avoid unnecessary flights (short haul)-Buy energy efficient products-Eat more food that is locally in season -Adopt lower impact diet

Elizabeth Shove, Prof. of Sociology, Lancaster University, UK (Guest Lecture Renewable Energy Class, UC Santa Cruz, Spring 2009)

http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/classes/ee080j/Spring09/

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Aha!

Practical consciousnessAwareness and choice

Informs a lot of discussion about how to engender sustainabilityConsiders habits in isolationOften implausible in terms of daily routines e.g. comfort, cleanliness

Elizabeth Shove, Spring 2009 http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/classes/ee080j/Spring09/

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choice, change, belief, attitude, information, behaviour

But what if we see consumption as consequence of ordinary practice?

What is required in order to be a ‘normal’member of society?

How does this change, and with what consequence for sustainability?


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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Comfort and indoor environments it is becoming normal to expect 22 degrees C inside, all year round, all over the world and whatever the weather outside (Standardizing Comfort => Prof. Fanger DTU)

Cleanliness and showeringit is becoming normal to shower once or twice a day (in the UK, the amount of water used for showering is expected to increase five fold between 1991-2021)

LaunderingFrom once a week to once a day or more, but with lower temperatures than ever before

Similar trends –naturalisation of need

but possibly different dynamics

and different implications for the future

Comfort, cleanliness and convenience By Elizabeth Shove, 2003

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Reflexive/conspicuous consumption

Routine/ordinary consumption

Where most effort has focused

Where the real challenges lie

Individual belief, attitude, behaviour, information, persuasion

Practice, convention, routine, dynamics of sociotechnical systems, structuring of options, standardisation, globalisation


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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Can Renewables Save the World?• Fossil fuels have excellent energy characteristics. • Wind/ geothermal are among the cheapest of

renewables. There is potential for significant growth but they can not solve our energy problem.

• Solar energy has the potential to provide all our energy needs.– Currently expensive; it is intermittent.

• Currently no clear options for large scale energy storage

• Biomass has the potential to provide part of transportation energy needs – Cellulosic biofuels and algaes are interesting but they

have not demonstrated large scale/long term potential. One has to consider the full ecosystem impact (water, food, etc.).

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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Can Renewables Save the World?• If our goal is to have a planet where everybody has

a level of life similar to developed countries, energy need is enormous and it is not clear if we can do this by working on the supply side alone.

• Energy efficiency is important but it is not enough.• We need to consider changes in lifestyle, city

planning and social structure (transportation, lodging, grid).

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