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RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FIELD TESTING DRAFT FINAL PRE-RFP MARKET/ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FOR FIELD TEST NO. 4 HELWAN TEXTILE OCTOBER 1986 PREPARED FOR EGYPTIAN ELECTRIC AUTHORITY CAIRO, EGYPT AND U.S. AGENCY FOR iNTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT USAID MISSION: CAIRO, EGYPT SUBMITTED BY LOUIS BERGER INTERNATIONAL, INC. WASHINGTON, D.C. (CONTRACT AID 263-0123C-00-4069-Oo)
Transcript

RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

FIELD TESTING

DRAFT FINAL

PRE-RFP MARKETECONOMIC

ASSESSMENT FOR FIELD TEST NO 4

HELWAN TEXTILE

OCTOBER 1986

PREPARED FOR

EGYPTIAN ELECTRIC AUTHORITY

CAIRO EGYPT

AND

US AGENCY FOR iNTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

USAID MISSION CAIRO EGYPT

SUBMITTED BY

LOUIS BERGER INTERNATIONAL INC

WASHINGTON DC

(CONTRACT AID 263-0123C-00-4069-Oo)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 INTRODUCTION 1

3 BACKGROUND 5

Objectives of Proposed Field Test

Site for IPH Systems 5

4 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 7

Objective 7

Research Methodology 7

Assumptions 9

Data Base 10

Analysis and Results ii

5 CONCLUSION 29

APPENDICES

A A-i

B B-I

C C-I

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

An economic analysis was performed to evaluate a proposed

Solar Industrial Process Heat (IPH) and Waste Heat Recovery

System for the textile finishing industry at Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

A collector system of area 4200 sqft was evaluated

Because of differences in assumptions in cost estimation EEA

and Lockwood Greene Engineers submitted separate cost estimates

The Lockwood Greene Engineers estimates were based on a

4000 sqft collector area with a variable cost of S6000sqft

and a fixed cost of $39180 with an energy savings of 325

barrels of oil equivalent

EEA estimates provided data for 4200 sqft of collector

area Two sets of collector prices were provided $2581sqft

for the REFT project and S2221sqft for locally manufactured

collector systems Fixed cost estimates were $23995 and

$17430 for each collector price category respectively The

EEA estimates showed an energy savings of 348 barrels of oil

equivalent

A benefit cost analysis methodology was employed to perform

the economic analysis

- i shy

A $2000barrel of No 6 light heating oil was used as the

price of energy saved by using the solar thermal system This

price was escalated at 2 per year Also a sensitivity analysis

was performed by varying the price of oil andor collector

prices

The economic analysis considered the following scenarios

e A 4000 sq~ft collector area at a price of S6000sqft (US case)

e A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$2581sqft and S2221sqft

A Waste Heat Recovery System

A 4200 sqft collector area priced at S7O00 per sqft combined with a waste heat recovery system

Results of the economic analysis showed that none of the

candidate solar chermal systems are economically viable

A sensitivity analysis was also performed by varying

collector prices and the price of oil Results of the

sensitivity analysis indicated thethat flat plate collectors

will not be economical unless prices fall to $2200sqft at a

price of oil $40 per barrel

A separate analysis was also carried out on the economic

performance of the solar thermal system combined with the Waste

Heat Recovery System Results of the analysis showed that the

combined system was economically viable

- ii shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable 2nergy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously in the go-no-go decision of this field test

- iii shy

2 INTRODUCTION

The Egyptian Electricity Authority (EEA) the United States

Agency for International Development (USAIDCairo) and a group

of US Consultants form a team responsible for the performance

conduct and management of the Renewable Energy Field Testing

(REFT) Project whereby eleven systems are field tested for

renewable energy applications in Egypt

These field tests include the use of solar thermal photoshy

voltaic and grid connected wind farm systems for industrial

process heat water pumping ice making desalination and grid

connected electricity generation

The project has broad objectives to investigate selected

renewable energy options to

0 Comprchensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through the establishment of data

bases information systems and organizations that

effectively serve both the public and private sectors

- 1 shy

Design install operate and evaluate a series of

renewable energy field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

a Conduct a ormal management and technical training

program both on-the-job and specialized and establish

an intensive information dissemination program

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is one of the supporting

activities that will provide useful information for the

accomplishment of the proposed project objectives The Market

Economic Analysis Task is set up to accomplish the following

objectives

Evaluate the economic performance of candidate

renewable energy technologyapplication systems

in the field test program in the Egyptian economy

Identlfy non-technica bottlenecks that could be

encountered in the dissemination and wide use of

renewable energy technologies

Estimate the market environment in Egypt under which

the supply of and the demand for preselected renewable

energy technologies will be transacted

-2 shy

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 INTRODUCTION 1

3 BACKGROUND 5

Objectives of Proposed Field Test

Site for IPH Systems 5

4 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 7

Objective 7

Research Methodology 7

Assumptions 9

Data Base 10

Analysis and Results ii

5 CONCLUSION 29

APPENDICES

A A-i

B B-I

C C-I

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

An economic analysis was performed to evaluate a proposed

Solar Industrial Process Heat (IPH) and Waste Heat Recovery

System for the textile finishing industry at Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

A collector system of area 4200 sqft was evaluated

Because of differences in assumptions in cost estimation EEA

and Lockwood Greene Engineers submitted separate cost estimates

The Lockwood Greene Engineers estimates were based on a

4000 sqft collector area with a variable cost of S6000sqft

and a fixed cost of $39180 with an energy savings of 325

barrels of oil equivalent

EEA estimates provided data for 4200 sqft of collector

area Two sets of collector prices were provided $2581sqft

for the REFT project and S2221sqft for locally manufactured

collector systems Fixed cost estimates were $23995 and

$17430 for each collector price category respectively The

EEA estimates showed an energy savings of 348 barrels of oil

equivalent

A benefit cost analysis methodology was employed to perform

the economic analysis

- i shy

A $2000barrel of No 6 light heating oil was used as the

price of energy saved by using the solar thermal system This

price was escalated at 2 per year Also a sensitivity analysis

was performed by varying the price of oil andor collector

prices

The economic analysis considered the following scenarios

e A 4000 sq~ft collector area at a price of S6000sqft (US case)

e A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$2581sqft and S2221sqft

A Waste Heat Recovery System

A 4200 sqft collector area priced at S7O00 per sqft combined with a waste heat recovery system

Results of the economic analysis showed that none of the

candidate solar chermal systems are economically viable

A sensitivity analysis was also performed by varying

collector prices and the price of oil Results of the

sensitivity analysis indicated thethat flat plate collectors

will not be economical unless prices fall to $2200sqft at a

price of oil $40 per barrel

A separate analysis was also carried out on the economic

performance of the solar thermal system combined with the Waste

Heat Recovery System Results of the analysis showed that the

combined system was economically viable

- ii shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable 2nergy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously in the go-no-go decision of this field test

- iii shy

2 INTRODUCTION

The Egyptian Electricity Authority (EEA) the United States

Agency for International Development (USAIDCairo) and a group

of US Consultants form a team responsible for the performance

conduct and management of the Renewable Energy Field Testing

(REFT) Project whereby eleven systems are field tested for

renewable energy applications in Egypt

These field tests include the use of solar thermal photoshy

voltaic and grid connected wind farm systems for industrial

process heat water pumping ice making desalination and grid

connected electricity generation

The project has broad objectives to investigate selected

renewable energy options to

0 Comprchensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through the establishment of data

bases information systems and organizations that

effectively serve both the public and private sectors

- 1 shy

Design install operate and evaluate a series of

renewable energy field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

a Conduct a ormal management and technical training

program both on-the-job and specialized and establish

an intensive information dissemination program

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is one of the supporting

activities that will provide useful information for the

accomplishment of the proposed project objectives The Market

Economic Analysis Task is set up to accomplish the following

objectives

Evaluate the economic performance of candidate

renewable energy technologyapplication systems

in the field test program in the Egyptian economy

Identlfy non-technica bottlenecks that could be

encountered in the dissemination and wide use of

renewable energy technologies

Estimate the market environment in Egypt under which

the supply of and the demand for preselected renewable

energy technologies will be transacted

-2 shy

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

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4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

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The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

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The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

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Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

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TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

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TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

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TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

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TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

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Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

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TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

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TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

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5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

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It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

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348 342

248 343

343

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342 343

-43 348

345 348

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348 342

348 348 348

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7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

An economic analysis was performed to evaluate a proposed

Solar Industrial Process Heat (IPH) and Waste Heat Recovery

System for the textile finishing industry at Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

A collector system of area 4200 sqft was evaluated

Because of differences in assumptions in cost estimation EEA

and Lockwood Greene Engineers submitted separate cost estimates

The Lockwood Greene Engineers estimates were based on a

4000 sqft collector area with a variable cost of S6000sqft

and a fixed cost of $39180 with an energy savings of 325

barrels of oil equivalent

EEA estimates provided data for 4200 sqft of collector

area Two sets of collector prices were provided $2581sqft

for the REFT project and S2221sqft for locally manufactured

collector systems Fixed cost estimates were $23995 and

$17430 for each collector price category respectively The

EEA estimates showed an energy savings of 348 barrels of oil

equivalent

A benefit cost analysis methodology was employed to perform

the economic analysis

- i shy

A $2000barrel of No 6 light heating oil was used as the

price of energy saved by using the solar thermal system This

price was escalated at 2 per year Also a sensitivity analysis

was performed by varying the price of oil andor collector

prices

The economic analysis considered the following scenarios

e A 4000 sq~ft collector area at a price of S6000sqft (US case)

e A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$2581sqft and S2221sqft

A Waste Heat Recovery System

A 4200 sqft collector area priced at S7O00 per sqft combined with a waste heat recovery system

Results of the economic analysis showed that none of the

candidate solar chermal systems are economically viable

A sensitivity analysis was also performed by varying

collector prices and the price of oil Results of the

sensitivity analysis indicated thethat flat plate collectors

will not be economical unless prices fall to $2200sqft at a

price of oil $40 per barrel

A separate analysis was also carried out on the economic

performance of the solar thermal system combined with the Waste

Heat Recovery System Results of the analysis showed that the

combined system was economically viable

- ii shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable 2nergy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously in the go-no-go decision of this field test

- iii shy

2 INTRODUCTION

The Egyptian Electricity Authority (EEA) the United States

Agency for International Development (USAIDCairo) and a group

of US Consultants form a team responsible for the performance

conduct and management of the Renewable Energy Field Testing

(REFT) Project whereby eleven systems are field tested for

renewable energy applications in Egypt

These field tests include the use of solar thermal photoshy

voltaic and grid connected wind farm systems for industrial

process heat water pumping ice making desalination and grid

connected electricity generation

The project has broad objectives to investigate selected

renewable energy options to

0 Comprchensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through the establishment of data

bases information systems and organizations that

effectively serve both the public and private sectors

- 1 shy

Design install operate and evaluate a series of

renewable energy field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

a Conduct a ormal management and technical training

program both on-the-job and specialized and establish

an intensive information dissemination program

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is one of the supporting

activities that will provide useful information for the

accomplishment of the proposed project objectives The Market

Economic Analysis Task is set up to accomplish the following

objectives

Evaluate the economic performance of candidate

renewable energy technologyapplication systems

in the field test program in the Egyptian economy

Identlfy non-technica bottlenecks that could be

encountered in the dissemination and wide use of

renewable energy technologies

Estimate the market environment in Egypt under which

the supply of and the demand for preselected renewable

energy technologies will be transacted

-2 shy

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

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A $2000barrel of No 6 light heating oil was used as the

price of energy saved by using the solar thermal system This

price was escalated at 2 per year Also a sensitivity analysis

was performed by varying the price of oil andor collector

prices

The economic analysis considered the following scenarios

e A 4000 sq~ft collector area at a price of S6000sqft (US case)

e A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$2581sqft and S2221sqft

A Waste Heat Recovery System

A 4200 sqft collector area priced at S7O00 per sqft combined with a waste heat recovery system

Results of the economic analysis showed that none of the

candidate solar chermal systems are economically viable

A sensitivity analysis was also performed by varying

collector prices and the price of oil Results of the

sensitivity analysis indicated thethat flat plate collectors

will not be economical unless prices fall to $2200sqft at a

price of oil $40 per barrel

A separate analysis was also carried out on the economic

performance of the solar thermal system combined with the Waste

Heat Recovery System Results of the analysis showed that the

combined system was economically viable

- ii shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable 2nergy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously in the go-no-go decision of this field test

- iii shy

2 INTRODUCTION

The Egyptian Electricity Authority (EEA) the United States

Agency for International Development (USAIDCairo) and a group

of US Consultants form a team responsible for the performance

conduct and management of the Renewable Energy Field Testing

(REFT) Project whereby eleven systems are field tested for

renewable energy applications in Egypt

These field tests include the use of solar thermal photoshy

voltaic and grid connected wind farm systems for industrial

process heat water pumping ice making desalination and grid

connected electricity generation

The project has broad objectives to investigate selected

renewable energy options to

0 Comprchensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through the establishment of data

bases information systems and organizations that

effectively serve both the public and private sectors

- 1 shy

Design install operate and evaluate a series of

renewable energy field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

a Conduct a ormal management and technical training

program both on-the-job and specialized and establish

an intensive information dissemination program

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is one of the supporting

activities that will provide useful information for the

accomplishment of the proposed project objectives The Market

Economic Analysis Task is set up to accomplish the following

objectives

Evaluate the economic performance of candidate

renewable energy technologyapplication systems

in the field test program in the Egyptian economy

Identlfy non-technica bottlenecks that could be

encountered in the dissemination and wide use of

renewable energy technologies

Estimate the market environment in Egypt under which

the supply of and the demand for preselected renewable

energy technologies will be transacted

-2 shy

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

7)i)7771Cell i) Ofr

U6~ (Ici 1 -211~c~~

f~t 2l

c-1

1986 1OCT

I L jB~ i i~ I C r 6 ~ ~Kn Z 7

B~ C~u ~d~ ~ c) 7 fie~~

dF -Me- cluy( - (F --

(44 I It Lccc~ e~lry

C-2

- A

--

C

A LA Ai i ll~l 61

_

shyit AA 3t yj

-(plvt IIIIIl i

1 Ilshy

i 37

~~t~ ~ F~ I liN011 u

1~ i1I1~

~I rrjuLr~

I ~~~ ru

I 9IwrluLIIIAI -

NOR i6 91 13

1

MAY i i1 99 f

I~lI 2 I 1 r hJI I I- L3f 2H euro S)1

AUG l T411lt --

0 7 I9t7i

(1 LlI1 ~ I

11R(IIIC 791 shyIf 919 TXjLvj

lS 3 11LI

cr

62 FI f)I )

IL 1 iia ILE 61 l ampq

T

~

2j~

1 1 I 5

264 1 0 1 A1 3 IsP IEIJA 167 -

PO Zlt876 tV9IlAl lA g-

t i -- - i i 4I r Y 12 d

C 7 =_ - 34 p76 q A

957 IULkE0 167 if 6 0 237J163lIlI) 11-1 i6 1

It 1 1 IO I rIl

1I 1 4 77t ~A shy

r IIjl 1 I 971- 6II l I I[(ijllI Ii

Itl JY lif i5U 2 1 IUI t l Oil A I I21 I 5 1 9

- IS-I i U lt~

I I i~~~~~~~ -

Z~~~~~~

ll

I Q I

1 1 6

A2 52 213 A4

YN -~ A-

IA 6~A273A 4j 163 6 1 7 6 136)~ A

UN6I TS~ I-t- - A6AAAA I1AAAHOURA JA A

~ AAAA 9~AA6~ C-36 ~ 6 A A I I ~

4

~~ -shy eshy

- Ft c4_~

eKJ -J~-)

nI

- 2ZZ

0~~~C

_ D O

Pn-shy

_ - - - -- -- - - ~ -

2 -

L- I CA e

k --

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable 2nergy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously in the go-no-go decision of this field test

- iii shy

2 INTRODUCTION

The Egyptian Electricity Authority (EEA) the United States

Agency for International Development (USAIDCairo) and a group

of US Consultants form a team responsible for the performance

conduct and management of the Renewable Energy Field Testing

(REFT) Project whereby eleven systems are field tested for

renewable energy applications in Egypt

These field tests include the use of solar thermal photoshy

voltaic and grid connected wind farm systems for industrial

process heat water pumping ice making desalination and grid

connected electricity generation

The project has broad objectives to investigate selected

renewable energy options to

0 Comprchensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through the establishment of data

bases information systems and organizations that

effectively serve both the public and private sectors

- 1 shy

Design install operate and evaluate a series of

renewable energy field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

a Conduct a ormal management and technical training

program both on-the-job and specialized and establish

an intensive information dissemination program

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is one of the supporting

activities that will provide useful information for the

accomplishment of the proposed project objectives The Market

Economic Analysis Task is set up to accomplish the following

objectives

Evaluate the economic performance of candidate

renewable energy technologyapplication systems

in the field test program in the Egyptian economy

Identlfy non-technica bottlenecks that could be

encountered in the dissemination and wide use of

renewable energy technologies

Estimate the market environment in Egypt under which

the supply of and the demand for preselected renewable

energy technologies will be transacted

-2 shy

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

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TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

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($47334 7H)

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($1432) $7105

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0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

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2 INTRODUCTION

The Egyptian Electricity Authority (EEA) the United States

Agency for International Development (USAIDCairo) and a group

of US Consultants form a team responsible for the performance

conduct and management of the Renewable Energy Field Testing

(REFT) Project whereby eleven systems are field tested for

renewable energy applications in Egypt

These field tests include the use of solar thermal photoshy

voltaic and grid connected wind farm systems for industrial

process heat water pumping ice making desalination and grid

connected electricity generation

The project has broad objectives to investigate selected

renewable energy options to

0 Comprchensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through the establishment of data

bases information systems and organizations that

effectively serve both the public and private sectors

- 1 shy

Design install operate and evaluate a series of

renewable energy field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

a Conduct a ormal management and technical training

program both on-the-job and specialized and establish

an intensive information dissemination program

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is one of the supporting

activities that will provide useful information for the

accomplishment of the proposed project objectives The Market

Economic Analysis Task is set up to accomplish the following

objectives

Evaluate the economic performance of candidate

renewable energy technologyapplication systems

in the field test program in the Egyptian economy

Identlfy non-technica bottlenecks that could be

encountered in the dissemination and wide use of

renewable energy technologies

Estimate the market environment in Egypt under which

the supply of and the demand for preselected renewable

energy technologies will be transacted

-2 shy

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

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Design install operate and evaluate a series of

renewable energy field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

a Conduct a ormal management and technical training

program both on-the-job and specialized and establish

an intensive information dissemination program

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is one of the supporting

activities that will provide useful information for the

accomplishment of the proposed project objectives The Market

Economic Analysis Task is set up to accomplish the following

objectives

Evaluate the economic performance of candidate

renewable energy technologyapplication systems

in the field test program in the Egyptian economy

Identlfy non-technica bottlenecks that could be

encountered in the dissemination and wide use of

renewable energy technologies

Estimate the market environment in Egypt under which

the supply of and the demand for preselected renewable

energy technologies will be transacted

-2 shy

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

7)i)7771Cell i) Ofr

U6~ (Ici 1 -211~c~~

f~t 2l

c-1

1986 1OCT

I L jB~ i i~ I C r 6 ~ ~Kn Z 7

B~ C~u ~d~ ~ c) 7 fie~~

dF -Me- cluy( - (F --

(44 I It Lccc~ e~lry

C-2

- A

--

C

A LA Ai i ll~l 61

_

shyit AA 3t yj

-(plvt IIIIIl i

1 Ilshy

i 37

~~t~ ~ F~ I liN011 u

1~ i1I1~

~I rrjuLr~

I ~~~ ru

I 9IwrluLIIIAI -

NOR i6 91 13

1

MAY i i1 99 f

I~lI 2 I 1 r hJI I I- L3f 2H euro S)1

AUG l T411lt --

0 7 I9t7i

(1 LlI1 ~ I

11R(IIIC 791 shyIf 919 TXjLvj

lS 3 11LI

cr

62 FI f)I )

IL 1 iia ILE 61 l ampq

T

~

2j~

1 1 I 5

264 1 0 1 A1 3 IsP IEIJA 167 -

PO Zlt876 tV9IlAl lA g-

t i -- - i i 4I r Y 12 d

C 7 =_ - 34 p76 q A

957 IULkE0 167 if 6 0 237J163lIlI) 11-1 i6 1

It 1 1 IO I rIl

1I 1 4 77t ~A shy

r IIjl 1 I 971- 6II l I I[(ijllI Ii

Itl JY lif i5U 2 1 IUI t l Oil A I I21 I 5 1 9

- IS-I i U lt~

I I i~~~~~~~ -

Z~~~~~~

ll

I Q I

1 1 6

A2 52 213 A4

YN -~ A-

IA 6~A273A 4j 163 6 1 7 6 136)~ A

UN6I TS~ I-t- - A6AAAA I1AAAHOURA JA A

~ AAAA 9~AA6~ C-36 ~ 6 A A I I ~

4

~~ -shy eshy

- Ft c4_~

eKJ -J~-)

nI

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_ D O

Pn-shy

_ - - - -- -- - - ~ -

2 -

L- I CA e

k --

Identify policy issues such as energy prices

incentives tariffs and regulations that could be

modified instituted andor removed to enhance the

establishment of a true economic cost of energy

resources

Determine the economic environment under which

investment decisions could be made for the widespread

vse of similar renewable energy technologies in Egypt

0 Train Egyptian counterparts with the capability of

performing market and economic assessments of similar

energy projects

The MarketEconomic Analysis Task is performed in two

parts The first part is the Pre-RFP MarketEconomic Analysis

This activity will perform a site specific MarketEconomic

analysis of a particular field test in order to provide decision

makers both at EEA and USAIDCairo with information on the

financial and economic viability of the proposed field test

This information is required as one of the pieces of information

for a go-no-go decision on the issuance of an RFP

The second part performs a marketeconomic analysis of

specified renewable energy technologies throughout Egypt in

industrial sectors represented by the eleven field tests

- 3 shy

This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

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This report represents the first part the Pre-RFP Market

Economic analysis for a field test designed to test the technical

and economic viability of the use of solar industrial process

heat (IPH) and a waste heat recovery system for textile bleachshy

iig

- 4shy

3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

7)i)7771Cell i) Ofr

U6~ (Ici 1 -211~c~~

f~t 2l

c-1

1986 1OCT

I L jB~ i i~ I C r 6 ~ ~Kn Z 7

B~ C~u ~d~ ~ c) 7 fie~~

dF -Me- cluy( - (F --

(44 I It Lccc~ e~lry

C-2

- A

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3 BACKGROUND

The proposed site for Field Test 4 -Textile finishing at

the Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company at Helwan near Cairo

Helwan Spinning and Weaving Company is a large textile

plant finishing a variety of fabrics The finishing operation

consists of a series of chemical treatments involving hot and

cold washes by dyeing and bleaching processes The hotfollowed

wash dye and bleach washers are currently brought to and held

at the desired temperature range by direct sparging with steam

(hand-valve adjustments)

Objectives of Proposed Field Test Site for IPH System

The primary objectives of this field test are to provide

EEA with practical working experience using Solar Thermal

Industrial Process Heat and to provide system design and operashy

tional training for Egyptian engineers for the purpose of

assessing and implementing similar projects throughout Egypt

This field test will evaluate the viability of solar thermal

industrial process heat with waste heat recovery system for

textile finishing

The application of solar IPH and waste heat recovery

system for textile finishing at Helwan Textile will serve as a

demonstration of the capability of the combined technology of

- 5 shy

industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

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$335

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A-69

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$-680 $680 $180

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3464 $2757

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1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

7)i)7771Cell i) Ofr

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industrial process heat to reliably supply significant amounts

of energy at other textile finishing facilities It is important

that this field test be designed to distinguish between the

performance of the solar IPH and the performance of the waste

heat recovery systems so that each can be evaluated for other

applications

-6 shy

4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

7)i)7771Cell i) Ofr

U6~ (Ici 1 -211~c~~

f~t 2l

c-1

1986 1OCT

I L jB~ i i~ I C r 6 ~ ~Kn Z 7

B~ C~u ~d~ ~ c) 7 fie~~

dF -Me- cluy( - (F --

(44 I It Lccc~ e~lry

C-2

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4 ECONOUilC ANALYSIS

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the economic

viability of a solar thermal system for providing industrial

process heat for textile finishing at the Helwan Spinning and

Weaving Company at Helwan and to determine whether or not an

investment in this field test would result in the acquisition of

useful information and know-how not only technical but also

managerial and institutional so that such experiences could be

duplicated throughout the economy of Egypt

Research Methodology

The method of analysis selected for accomplishing the above

objective is the standard benefit cost analysis used in project

evaluation A benefit cost analysis involves first the pooling

of anticipated benefits and costs (direct and indirect) resulting

from the project throughout its economic life The streams of

benefits and costs are then expressed in present value terms

using a common numeraire (a discount rate)

From this the following evaluation characteristics can be

calculated

The Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the sum of

the discounted stream of benefits and the sum of the discounted

stream of costs discounted by a given discount rate

- 7 shy

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

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Cost of IE

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Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

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Cash F~A

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$33880

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$335

$3942

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A-69

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$-680 $680 $180

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3464 $2757

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1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

7)i)7771Cell i) Ofr

U6~ (Ici 1 -211~c~~

f~t 2l

c-1

1986 1OCT

I L jB~ i i~ I C r 6 ~ ~Kn Z 7

B~ C~u ~d~ ~ c) 7 fie~~

dF -Me- cluy( - (F --

(44 I It Lccc~ e~lry

C-2

- A

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C

A LA Ai i ll~l 61

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shyit AA 3t yj

-(plvt IIIIIl i

1 Ilshy

i 37

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1~ i1I1~

~I rrjuLr~

I ~~~ ru

I 9IwrluLIIIAI -

NOR i6 91 13

1

MAY i i1 99 f

I~lI 2 I 1 r hJI I I- L3f 2H euro S)1

AUG l T411lt --

0 7 I9t7i

(1 LlI1 ~ I

11R(IIIC 791 shyIf 919 TXjLvj

lS 3 11LI

cr

62 FI f)I )

IL 1 iia ILE 61 l ampq

T

~

2j~

1 1 I 5

264 1 0 1 A1 3 IsP IEIJA 167 -

PO Zlt876 tV9IlAl lA g-

t i -- - i i 4I r Y 12 d

C 7 =_ - 34 p76 q A

957 IULkE0 167 if 6 0 237J163lIlI) 11-1 i6 1

It 1 1 IO I rIl

1I 1 4 77t ~A shy

r IIjl 1 I 971- 6II l I I[(ijllI Ii

Itl JY lif i5U 2 1 IUI t l Oil A I I21 I 5 1 9

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ll

I Q I

1 1 6

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YN -~ A-

IA 6~A273A 4j 163 6 1 7 6 136)~ A

UN6I TS~ I-t- - A6AAAA I1AAAHOURA JA A

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_ D O

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_ - - - -- -- - - ~ -

2 -

L- I CA e

k --

The Payback Period is the number of years it takes a project to

generate sufficient benefits to cover its cost or the number of

years it takes the net present value to change from a negative

to a positive value

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sometimes called the economic

rte of return is that discount rate that would equate

discounted benefits to discounted cost or reduce the net present

value to zero

Benefit-Cost Ratio (BC) This is the ratio obtained by dividing

the discounted value of all project benefits by the discounted

value of project costs

Simple Payback This is a rule of thumb method used by investors

to see if a particular financial venture is worth investing in

or not The simple payback is calculated by summing up all

capital and operating costs and dividing that sum by the value of

the first full years benefit In the private sector in most

industrialized countries a simple payback of 3 to 5 years is

expected With renewable energy technology a simple payback of

7-9 years is usually admissible

- 8shy

Assumptions

The economic analysis of the IPH system is based on the

following assumptions

0 All energy conversions are made into barrels of oil

equivalent where one metric ton is equivalent to

US 733 barrels

0 Price of oil is valued at US$20barrel of No 6 light

heating oil escalated at 2 per year This price

level may not be indicative of the price of oil that is

rapidly changing at present It should be noted that

the analysis in this study is to look at what may

happen in the long-rt-n during the 1980s and 1990s As

such the analysis should not be affected by what

happens to commodity prices in the spot market in the

very short-run A revision of the price of oil in the

analysis may be appropriate when the price level

stabilizes

A discount rate of 1O is sed This is the

opportunity cost of money used in international

lending agencies such as the World Bank

Hardware is assumed to have a salvage value of 10 at

the end of the life of the system

-9shy

The system is expected to have a life of 20 years

0 Some hardware items are purchased in Egypt An

exchange rate of LE 135 = US$ 100 is used All

prices are in constant US$ 1985

Data Base

Two sets of cost estimates were used in this analysis The

fWrFt set of data was provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers for

a 4000 sqft collector area (see Appendix B)

On the basis of the best available information Lockwood

Greene Engineers have provided the following cost estimates

Collector Size 4000

Prices Variable cost $60O0sqft Fixed cost $39180

0 + M cost 2 of total cost

Salvage value 42 of total cost

Energy savings 325 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

The second set of data was provided by EEA for a collector

size of 4200 sqft The EEA cost estimates also show two types

of prices The first set shows a price of $2581 per square foot

- 10 shy

of colector This price is to be used for collectors purchased

for the REFT Project The second set shows a price of $2221 per

sqft which is to be used when evaluating IPH application

elsewhere in Egypt (see Appendix C)

Cost estimates provided by EEA are as follows

Collector Size 4200 sqft

Prices Variable cost $2221isqft (local)

$2581sqft (REFT)Fixed cost $17430 (local)

$23995 (REFT)

0 + M cost 2 of hardware cost

Salvage value 42 of capital cost

Energy savings 348 barrels of oil

Construction period 10 months

System life 20 years

Analysis and Results

The economic evaluation of the IPH system for textile

finishing was performed by examining the following sets of

assumptions

1 A 4200 sqft collector area at a price of $30sqft

2 A 4200 sqft collector area at prices of

$ 2581sqft and $2221sqft

3 A Waste Heat Recovery System

4 A 4200 sqft collector area priced at $30 per sqftombined with waste heat recovery system

5 A sensitivity analysis at different collector prices and varying prices of oil

- 11 shy

Table 1 presents the input data based on cost estimates

provided by Lockwood Greene Engineers These estimates are based

on a collector system purchased from the US at a price of

US$60sqft Output results for this analysis is presented in

Table 2

Input data for the base line analysis are presented in

Table 3 All base line analyses were performed assuming a price

of $20O0bbl of oil The economic evaluation of all systems

was made using a discount rate of 10 although system perforshy

mances are examined at varying discount rates ranging from 0

to 20 at 2 intervals (see Appendix A)

Table 4 presents results of the base line analysis As

shown in this table the 4200 sqft solar collector systems at

all collector prices do not pay during its economic life The

solar collector system at a price of $30sqft has a simple

payback of 22 years which is longer than the life of the system

The net present value at 10 discount rate is negative for

the baseline case with collector price $30sqft and price of

oil $2Gibbl indicating that the financial benefits accruing to

the project will not be able to offset the cost of acquisition

and operation of the system during its economic life span The

net present value at different level of discount rate and varying

prices of oil is presented in Figure 1

- 12 shy

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HLEWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - US CASE

(Collector Price US$ 60sqft Price of Oil

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT RE(]OVaRY

Capital Cost ($) 227348 567958

0 + M ($) 4765 11359

Salvage Value ($) 11649 23854

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048

Construction Period (Month) 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost by Lockwood Greene Engineers

20bbl)

COMBINED SYSTEM

845306

16906

35503

11737

10

20

data provided

- 13 shy

TABLE 2

ECONOMIC NALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

RESULTS - US CASE

(Collector Price USS60sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 325 11048 11373

Simple Payback (Yrs) 43 3 4

Pdyback Period (Yrs) None 4 6

Net Present Value i = 10 ($251325) 1568793 1310681

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 834 4220 2843

BC Ratio i = 10 021 337 233

Source LBII estimates based on Engineering cost data providedby Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 14 shy

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

DATA INPUT - BASELINE ANALYSIS

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY SYSTEM

Capital Cost ($) 149995 567958 717953

0 + M (S) 2520 11359 13879

Salvage Value ($) 6300 - 0 - 6300

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Construction Period (Month) 10 10 10

System Life (Yrs) 20 20 20

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided from EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 15 shy

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM

FIELD TEST 4 - HELWAN TEXTILE

BASELINE ANALYSIS RESULTS

(Collector Price $30sqft Price of Oil US$ 20bbl)

I T E M S SOLAR ONLY WASTE HEAT COMBINED RECOVERY

Energy Savings (bbl) 348 11048 11396

Simple Payback (Yrs) 22 3 3

Payback Period (Yrs) None 4 5

Net Present Value i = 10 ($100633) 1565248 1464614

Internal Rate of Return (IRR ) - 124 4220 3402

BC Ratio 041 335 275 i = 10

Source LBII estimates based on cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

- 16 shy

Figure I Helwan TextileIPH - Solar only - Net Present Value at various Discount Rates and Prices of Oil (Collector

Price S30sqft)

0

150

-J)0

LUJ

LUJ

00-

Li

11 t 6

4F

D I SCOU NT RATE ()

130BBL

-$25BBL

~$15BBL $20BBL

- - 17 shy

The internal rate of return (IRR) is significantly lower

than the 10 economic rate of return expected to cover the cost

of credit

The waste heat recovery system on the other hand shows

positive results The system pays for itself in four years

The internal rate of return for the waste heat recovery

system is very high 4220 indicating very high economic gains

to be realized by installing this system

The Application Review for Field Test 4 examines solar

thermal together with a waste heat recovery system as a unit that

will be installed at Helwan Textile Accordingly an economic

evaluation of the combined solar thermal plus the waste heat

recovery system was performed

The input data used for Zhis analysis is presented in

Table 3 Results of the economic analysis for the combined

system are presented in Table 4 As shown in Table 4 the

combined system is economically viable The payback period for

the combined system is five years with an Internal Rate of

Return (IRR) of 3402 Figure 2 presents a graphic representashy

tion of the internal rate of return (IRR) for the output results

presented in Table 4

- 18shy

C

Figure 2 Helwan Textile - Internal Rate of Return at different Prices of Oil for Waste Heat Recovery

and Combined Solar and Jaste Heat Recovery

Systems (Collector Price $60 and $30sqft)

100

80shy

60-

LU 40

lt

($ B B LUi P R 1 0 F 0 1 L

-20

-20

- 19shy

-40

It is very clear from Table that the economic performance

of the combined system is lower than that of the waste heat

system indicating the dampening effect of the poor econoinic

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be pointed out that there is no functional relashy

tionship between the technical or economic performance of solar

thermal and waste heat recovery systems One can install the

solar thermal all by itself or in combination

As discussed earlier the proposed 4200 sqft solar thermal

system is not economically viable at a collector price of $30

sqft and price of oil S20barrel A separate analysis was

performed using a S20barrel price of oil and collector prices of

$30 25 22 and 20sqft Results of the analysis is presented

in Table 5

As shown in Table 5 the solar thermal system is not

economically viable at all collector prices The system does

not pay for itself during its life span Even at the lowest

collector price ($20sqft) the benefits derived from the

system can only cover 58 of the cost incurred (BC ratio 058)

during the life of the system

An additional sensitivity analysis was performed for each

collector price level and varying prices of oil As inshown

- 20 shy

TABLE 5 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT COLLECTOR PRICES

(Price of Oil US$ 20BBL)

I T E M S

COLLECTOR

$20sqft $22sqft

PRICE

$25sqft $30sqft

r

Energy Savings

(bbl)

Simple Payback

(Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

Net Present Value

i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR

348

16

None

($51604)

266

348

16

None

($55919)

216

348

19

None

($76694)

046

348

22

None

($100633)

- 124

BC Ratio

i = 10 058 056 048 041

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost Lockwood Greene Engineers

data provided by EEA and

Tables 6 - 9 the solar thermal system will start showing

positive economic results if collector prices are between $20 and

$22sqft and oil prices increase to $35 - $40barrel It is

very unlikely to find a situation where one can have a decline

in the price of collectors while having a simultaneous increase

in the price of oil Since collectors are manufactured from

products such as plastic glass aluminum etc which are

energy intensive a decline in collector prices can only be

realiz=d with a decline in the price of energy

Figures 3 and 4 show graphic representations of the internal

rate of return (IRR) and payback period respectively for

different prices of collectors and varying prices of oil

A year by year cash flow for 36 different scenarios are

presented in Appendix A Tables Al - A36

- 22 shy

TABLE 6 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 20sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348(bbl)

Simple Payback 21 16 12 10 9 8(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yr s)

Net Present Value i = 10 (69179) (51604) (34029) (16454) 1120 18695

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 057 266 540 787 1014 1229

BC Ratio 043 058 072 087 101 115

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 7 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 22sqft)

I T E M

Energy Savings (bbl)

Simple Payback (Yrs)

Payback Period

(Yrs)

P R I C E OF 0 I L

$15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

348 348 348 348 348 348

21 16 13 11 9 8

None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (73494) (55919) (38344) (20769) (3194) 14381

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 108 216 491 735 961 1172

BC Ratio 042 056 070 084 097 111

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 8 -ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL (Collector Price US$ 25sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 I L I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings

(bbl)

348 348 348 348 348 348

Simple Payback

(Yrs) 25 19 15 12 11 9

Payback

(Yrs)

Period None None None None None None

Net Present Value i = 10 (94268) (76694) (59119) (41544) (23969) (6394)

Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR - 263 046 304 532 739 932 BC Ratio 036 048 060 072 084 096

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA andLockwood Greene Engineers

TABLE 9 - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IPH SYSTEM - FT4HELWAN TEXTILE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF OIL

(Collector Price US$ 30sqft)

P R I C E OF 0 1 L

I T E M $15bbl $20bbl $25bbl $30bbl $35bbl $40bbl

Energy Savings 348 348 348 348 348 348 (bbl

Simple Payback 29 22 17 14 12 11(Yrs)

Payback Period None None None None None None (Yrs)

Net Present Value (118208) (100633) (83058) (65484) (47909) (30334) i = 10

Internal Rate of Return - IRR - 425 - 124 124 339 534 714

BC Ratio 031 041 051 062 072 082

Source LBII estimate based on engineering cost data provided by EEA and Lockwood Greene Engineers

Figure 3- Helwan TextileIPH - Solar Only - Internal Rate of

Returr at Different Prices of Oil and varying

Collector Prices

29shy

n

-15

CD 10shy

lt 5

S0

10

R

2

0 F

30 5

B BL )

-10

-27 shy

-Ig - Helwan Textile - Solar Only - Simple Payback at Dfferent Prices of Oil and varying Collector

Prices

50

40shy

30

20- $60sqft

- - S30sqft

I25sqft22sq ft 20sq ft

P

10

R I C E

20

0 F

30

0 1 L

40

B B L

50

- 28 shy

5 CONCLUSION

The economic analysis performed on the proposed IPH Field

Test at Helwan Textile showed that the 4200 sqft flat plate

collector system was not economically viable

However the analysis indicated that when the solar thermal

system was evaluated in combination with the waste heat recovery

system the project was economically viable This favorable

performance was caused not because of improvement made in

economic efficiency by the solar thermal system but rather

because the economic efficiency of the waste heat recovery

system is so strong that it more than offsets the poor

performance of the solar thermal system

It should be emphasized that this analysis did not cover an

evaluation of the complete array of solar thermal systems such

as solar collectors for domestic hot water etc The analysis

was limited to the application of flat plate collectors for

application in industrial process heat of a given temperature

range Therefore implications drawn from this analysis should

not be applied to other solar thermal uses

The economic analysis has revealed some interesting and

important economic technical institutional and policy issues

- 29 shy

It is clear that the proposed flat plate collector system

on its own cainot be expected to bring about positive economic

returns given current collector prices Therefore it is

necessary that

Investigations be made in the technical field to

determine if the efficiency of the system could be

improved without increasing system cost

e The supply side of the collector market be prepared

to manufacture and supply collector systems that are

cost effective

e Policy makers be cognizant of the fact that the price

of flat plate collectors must decrease by almost 60

compared to the best case scenario as used in this

study (from $30sqft to $10sqft) in order

for industrial consumers to find it attractive to

invest in solar thermal technology Since the market

and thus the solar thermal industry is at its infancy

in Egypt policy makers and the public sector have to

play a lead role in removing barriers and providing the

appropriate fiscal andor regulatory incentives to

enhance the manufacture and widespread use of solar

thermal technology

- 30 shy

It is the overall objective of the Renewable Energy Field

Testing Project to investigate selected renewable energy options

to

9 Comprehensively strengthen Egyptian technical and

institutional capabilities in the full spectrum of

renewable energy planning and decision-making for

technologies and applications

Develop and sustain an Egyptian renewable energy

infrastructure through establishment of data bases

information systems and organizations that effectively

serve both the public and private sectors

Design realize and evaluate the performance of a

series of field tests which utilize commercially

available technologies in applications having potential

for widespread use in Egypt

Complete formal managerial and technical training both

on-the-job and specialized and an intensive

information dissemination program

- 31 shy

The design operation maintenance and repair experience

with solar thermal systems that will be obtained through this

field test to form a strong technical base for the design and

application of other renewable energy technologies is an

important factor which has not entered into the benefit cost

calculation in this report These additional factors need to be

considered seriously for the go-no-go decision

- 32 shy

APPENDIX A

-cono mcarz F7ra r na 2Analvsis fo- Erer gyi s t s y --t ne E8 0o

TA -1E-1

Fcr Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELW TEXTILEIIPH (CILLECTOR PRICE S35313FT- PRICE Cz OIL $158L)Assumr iliEscalatior Rate of

Savec ValLe Of V~Caoitaltea- Cost Deratzrnc Cost of OilCost Sbl Fuel Usea Fuel(bi) EeravCs Saveo AnnualEuiv Er-eray Lost

Casi Flow Discounted Cash Flo~w (NV) j=urrert 48

Ion $14--Oui -It X=-=== ==--- ----==---=-------S shyrarsoort 1 Construc ionI i nt er o 0ne zt i o r $$14$35 $4C- $1500 $0 31Tta 5870$(

58 $150415 ($149545)6520 S153cent S14945) ($149545) ($14954-)$0 348 (149 4W)V 5324 $20$2520 $1561 4 ($146848) 3146948)4 0 $0 348 ($14699) (S14704)SO $5431i250 159= 550 $2911 ($1441 ) ($1445)5 Si $0 348 $5540 S252 S020

($14550) ($144721)$252) 1624 ($141473) (142056)$$ 348 ($142321) (142571)8 5650$0 $1G56 0 $313r ($13797) ($139755) (S140ljE7 $ (140582)$0 346 _7632 20 $1689 0 $W 348 $520 $3243 ($13611) ($137548) ($138169)8 S5873 2520SO $25Z0 $1723 $3359 ($133477) ($135431)0 $0 (M76274 ($137040)9- W S757 348 S5336 $25200 SO 348 $3476 (s123235 ($133402) ($134490)10 $5116 S-20 ($135468)$0 $2520 51733 0

$352 (128205) ($131460)11S 250 $0 348 $6238 (13 812) ($134015)510s $2520 $3718 ($125595) so $2520 4 Sampo $3843

(S12600) (131235) ($132674)$ bull252$1S65 0 $0 348 $6490) ($1 999) ($127820) ($1k9754) ($131437)13 V) 520 $1902

$ 2-t $3370 ($1 j420) ($126117) ($128 3) ($130256)14 348 $6620$0 S2520 $1940

0 S0 $2520 $410W ($117859) ($124489)0 $0 348 ($127055) ($129243)15 (1 2520 $197 0 $6753 S250 $233 ($115317) ($22932) ($125 89)16 $0

so 348 $6888 S252 (3128273)i3520 4368$2019 ($1I1C755)

17 0 $0 348 $7025 (3121445) ($124679) ($127379)$2K$0 $-) 0 01 $156- ($I12S3)

348 3120025 ($123601) ($126556)$7166 512520 646 (S107812) (S11BC65918 $0 ($122590) (S125710 52 10 21 100 0 so - 0$2 520J 348 7309 t4935S21 42 0 so) 50 $789 ($102918i($105354) i17374) ($1216421 ($125101)20 348 $7 455 ($116139)$0 $2520 $2 5 ($12-0754)$2185 0 ($124459)s021 348(W30) $2520 57 605 $2-50 $5085$2229 ($I00504)0 s0 348 $7757

(314961 ($119923) ($123869)($3780 S11537 ($9239) ($112486) ($I18208) ($IM673)$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $130239 $194515 ($64276)

A-1

TABLE A-I (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analvsis for Energy -strnents - Egypt EEA 101986

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return -425

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $1500 bbl (yr 1)Trarsoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NOV Ratio

interconnection $0 Enrgy Savns 348 bblyear Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $130 23 $194515 ($64276) 067TOTAL (Cap) $149995

El $105270 $187381 (582111) 056

Construct Time 10 morhs 4 $86548 $181787 ($95239) 0486 $72307 $177 355 ($105048) 041

Ooeratinc and Normal Maintenance Costs 8 $61319 $173805 (3112486) 03510 $5725 $170933 $118208) 031 11 $$3l26 $169701 ($120575) 029oeratino Cost $2520 year 12 $45912 $168585 ($122673) 027Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $167571 ($124539) 026

Major Eauipment ReoairReolacement 14 $40443 $166647 ($126204) 024 15 $38108 $165804 ($227695) 023

Salvage Value ($6300)period 16 $35 997 $165032 ($129034) 022 18 $32342 $163674 ($131332) 020Replace Period 20 years 20 $29303 1162522 ($133219) 018

A-2

--

__

Ewic a Fzranzai Z aiys s for Enercy Investments Eayot EEAq-

10I9i-

1PLE A-2 For Case ofFIELD TEST 4-- H2LWRN TEXTILEIP (COLLECTOR PRICE $30SQF - PRICE OF OIL $20BlAssumino Oil Escalation Rate of 0OL

Ca0ita Oeratira Cost cf Oilyear Fuel UsedCost Cost $Bb Saved VEL- -Fuei Ererly(Bb) Cost ave Arr al Cas FlowEouv ne-v LisOurted Cash FlowAnua C Flow 0V) 6 ===--- shy ======= =----=- rcuisior $1 93 -- Codegt ure~n $4Trar-I sSrC0=-=---= = 8 10 12=== =_==== -= =shy

=== =---==_-_I Corstru-t or te $34 512415 $2

431$951 Tota) C$Z $520 5 $160 (Q14-$1-47 $24

fSO $A 0 so 2s ($14 SH5) ($149255)$0

$73 $-5 ($144 8-( ($492s)$ $4$274 ( -14482)(3145015)s 348 (31450321$7241 $2520 ($145GG) $ $ 20 12 65 o so$01

348 0

$472( ($140487) ($140357) (s1411025200 ($1414031$25207 $2208 $ 0 3(1381611($i37 105 0 $11 4 3$0 20 S5_a20 5 0 so ($137534) ($137939)52520 348

0 $S034 3483 $7645 3 S- $5014 ($131875)$78 $1202 (11j33419)SO2 $ $5318SE184 ($12763 ($126 5531 (3134110) (134753)($123428)

$0 S3 ($127901) ($129128)$2520 $2297 $0 $2 2 o 0 345 $4I4 ($$2343 $995 1)7 ($1239(50 348 $2520 5475 ($130903)Ii 3155 s2$23 $131822)$ 183$0$2$SC n 5 ($13 50 ) ($120314 ) ($1224 )0 ($ 124376)-2$-iSO $23($ 5212~~ $ 520 2438S S $1 513 3) (SI27903 ) ( 52)$252 0 $2$0~ $7980 0 3 -4 i$110761 ($117414)1$ $2FO ($120000 -2520 $5 Z $59 4 ($12-2285)

gs )1 3 $20 287 $0348 1$107 0-7) ($S141238 ($ 17 7 0) SI2652587 $$c 24 ($120 3 5 )15 $0 0 (S0563) ($112021)$2 52 $2 $-9348 ($11555) ($118601)$0 520 6 0 so 34 8 $2 443483 S82 311104 $220$ 520 S664 ($30) ($107132)$ 307 ($931($S3123)) ( 10 (Si1267) ($115497)6 ($I04Ef) ($11973)5I) ($S 15451 ($11133)o0 $2 520 ($1169 3)SO 5 2 920 032520 5274 6 0 4 8 $ 36 $S 2- 8$0 47 ( 1 014 34 6 $3555 ($ I02 70 19 348 $7U ($1 0743 ) ($I 1i7

s0 $2520 $2800 0 $2 520 7 0 5 ($8 834 ($00 65) ) ($10 8 273 ) ($112 8 2 )

$2520 $9 0 $200 $72- (914$) 3)S0 $4 ($90 063 ($110682)27 $0 $2 c856 00 ($76 51)2$5 14 0 0 348 0 ($9 842 ($0397 ($10977)340 $I0139 -521 $2 5 0 $($6300) $7 19$2520 $2972 0 ( 72 8 35 ($ 076 ()0s0 ($102 72) ($10023)348 $10342 (3780) $1418 ($ 3) ($9246) ($100633) ($I0735)

$143695 $0820 0 s 7018 $173652 $194515 ($20863)

A-3

ASSUMPTJINS TABLE TABLE A-2 (Contd) BENEFIT-COSTS TPBLE (Calculated)

Economicand Finar_ial Analysis fr Energy Investments - Egypt EE 10191S6

Capital Costs Benefit Parareters Internal Rate of Return -124

Acquisitior 149995 Price of Oil 2000 bbl (y 1)Transoortation $0 Oil Escalat 20rvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV RatioInterconrection $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblyear --- _____-__

- Fuel Use 0 bblivear 0 $173652 $1S4515 ($20863) 089TOTAL (Car) $14995 2 $14036O $187381 (347021) 075 4 $115398 S181787 (36E390) 063Construct Time 10 months 6 $96409 S177355 ($80946) 054

8 $31759 5173805 ($92 046)Ooerating and Normal Maintenance Costs 047l0 $70299 $170 933 ($100633) 041

11 $65502 $169701 (3104199) 039Operatino Cost S2520 year 12 $61216 1amp3585 ($107369) 036Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 57376 $167571 (3110195) 034

14 $53924 $16G647 (3112723) 032Major Equioment ReoairReplacement 15 $50811 $165804 ($114992) 031 16 $47997 $165032 ($117035) 0213Replace Cost ($6300)oeriod 18 $43123 $163674 (3120551) 026Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $162522 ($123451) 024

A-4

Econonxc and Finarcial 9ralvsis for Energy Investrets -- EcvDt EEA 1013i6C

TABLE A-3

For Case ofFIELD TEST 14 - H-LWAN TEXTILEIPi ( COLLECTOR PRCE $30SQFT- PRICE OF OIL $25BBL) Assuming Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Valus ofCacital boeratirng Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow ((NV) iYear Cost Cost $Bbl (Bbl) Cost Eauiv Erercy Cost Currert f 4 8 10 12

S Accuisitio $149995

1 Transoort $0 I Construct ior $0 I Interconnection $0

Totil $149q95 $420 $2500 0 $0 58 $1450 S150 415 ($14295) (3148965) ($48965) ($14895) ($148965)$0 $2520 $2550 0 s0 348 $3874 $2520 $3354 ($142855) ($143082) ($143189) ($143292)3 s0 $2520 $2601 0 $0 348 $9051 $2520 ($1368171 ($137482) ($137791) ($133085)4 $0 2520 $2653 5

0 s0 348 $3233 $252 $ 713 ($130643) ($132153) ($132748) ($133307)$0 2520 $2706 0 $0 6

348 $9417 $2520 $o897 ($124954) ($127084) ($128037) ($128924)$0 S2520 $2760 0 $0 348 $9606 $2520 S7056 ($119130) ($122261) ($123637) ($124903)7 so $2520 $2815 0 $0 348 $3798 $2520 $7278 ($113378) (117675) ($119529) ($121216)so $1520 $28728 0 $0 348 $39A 9

S2520 $7474 ($107699) ($11331b) ($115694) ($117836)s0 $2520 $2929 0 $0 348 $10193 $25L0 $7673 ($102032) ($09169) ($1121141 ($114736)10 $0 2520 $2986 0 11

$1 348 $10397 $25_lt $7877 ($36557) ($105228) ($103774) ($111896)$0 $2520 $3047 0 $0 348 $10 60 $_520 $308512 ($31095) ($I01483) ($105656) (5109293)$0 $2520 $3106 0 $0 348 $10817 $2520 $8237 ($85706) ($97925 ($102748) ($106907)13 $0 $2520 $3171 0 $0 348 $11034 $2520 $8514 ($80388) ($94544) ($10003-5) ($104722)$0 $2520 $323414 0 $0 348 $11254 $2520 $873415 ($75142) ($91332) ($97505) ($102720)$0 $2520 $3299 0 $0 348 $11479 $2520 $8959 ($69968) ($88282) ($95146) ($100837)16 $0 $2520 $3365 0 $0 348 $I709 $2520 $3189 ($64866) ($85385) ($92946) ($99208)17 $0 $2520 $3432 0 $0 348 $11943 $252(l $9423 ($59835) ($M 634) ($90895) ($97671)18 $0 $2520 $3501 0 $0 348 $12182 $2520 $3662 ($54875) ($80023) ($88984) ($264)19 so $2520 $3571 0 $0 348 $12426 $2520 $9906 ($349985) ($77544) ($87202) ($94976)20 $0 $2520 $3642 0 $0 348 $12674 $2520 $10154 ($45165) ($75191) ($85542) ($93797)21 ($6300) $2520 $3715 0 $0 348 $12928 ($3780) $16708 ($37540) ($71607) ($830558) ($92065)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $217065 $194515 $22550

A-5

-- --

TABLE A-3 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investments - Egyot EEA i01986

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internal Rate of Return 124

Acouisition $149995 Price of Oil $25CK bbl (yr 1)TransDortation $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PY of PV of BCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Interconrection $0 Enrgy Savngs 348 bblyear m_ S -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $217065 $194515 $2550 112

TOTAL Cap) $149995 2 $175450 $187381 ($11931) 094

4 $144247 $181787 ($37540) 079Construct Time 10 months 6 $120511 $177355 ($56844) 068 8 $102 198 $173805 ($71607) 059DOeratino and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $87674 $170933 ($83058) 051

11 $81877 $169701 ($87824) 048Deratina Cost $2520 year 0 Sshye i s 5 a $76520 $168585 ($92065) 045ODperatina Lifetime 21 years 23 $71720 $167571 ($95851) 043

14 $67405 $166647 ($99242) 040Major Eauipment RepairReplacement 15 $63514 165804 ($102290) 038

16 $59996 $165032 ($105036) 036Salvage Value ($6 300period 18 $53904 $163674 ($109770) 033 Replace Period 20 years 20 $48839 $162522 ($1136833) 030

A-6

Econotic and Financial Araiysis for Energy Irvesteents - Egypt EEA 101986

TABLE A-4

For Case ofFI-2-D -ST 14 - HELWAN TEXTILEIPH ( COLLTOR PRICE 30SFT - PRICE OF OIL $30BBL)Assunina Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value of

CaPital Oerating Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel EreryYear Cost Cost $bl (PbI) Cost Ecuiv Savea Annual Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow (N91V) IErerey Cost Currer $ 4 8 10 12

Pcousition $142995 I Tr2rsport $0 1 Constrtio s I Intercorrecto $01 Total $14995 $420 $3000 0 $0SO58 $1740 $150415 (148675) 3514375) ($148675) ($143675) ($148675)

$0 $60C 220 303 $25 0 $3121 0 5 34 506 9 2$0 348 $10862 50 $8 1 9 ($ 4 0 85M) ($ 1 4 11 4 8) ( S 141e280$25X) $342 ($133146) ($133937) ($134391)) ( $ 141 41 7 1

4 (3134767)$0 $2520 $31845 $0 2520 $347 0 0

$0 348 $11079 S2520 $8559 ($125537)$0 346 $1301 $2 (127202) ($127961) ($128675)0 2520 $3312

520 5781 ($118032) ($120748) ($121963) ($123095)7 0 $0 348 $111527 S2-0so S2520 $3378 $3007 ($110629) (114618)

850 0 (116371) ($117984)so 348 51275752520 $3446 0 $0 348

S2520 $9237 ($103329) ($108797) (111157) (113304)$I992 $2520 $9472 (39613) ($103270) ($106296) ($109020)$0 $2520 $35 1510 0$0 $2520 $3585 0 s0 348 $12232 S2520 $9712 ($89034 (598(023)11 $0 348 S2477 ($01765 (3105097)$0 $2 500 S 521t0 $9957 ($5 039)$3657 0 0 (33042 ($97543) ($101507)348 $12726 S252012 0 $ 2520 $53730

$10206 ($7E144) ($88315) (1193608) (S98220)0 $0 348 $12981 $25 $10461 ($S3 3h8)14

52520 (55823) ($89941) ($95213)$0 $2520 $3881 510720 (61 652)0 ($79571) ($86525)s0 348 $13505 ($92461)I5 $0 $2520 $10985 (555055)52520 $3958 0 ($75532 (583343) (89944)s0 348 $1377516 SO S2520 S511255 ($4e5) (571700)$2520 $4038 0 ($0379) (387641)$0 348 51405117 $0 $2520 $4118 0

S2520 $11531 ($4 153 ($68065) ($77 61) ($85534)s0 348 $14332 $218 -0 $11812$0 $2520 (35846) (364617) (575048)$4201 0 ($83607)19 348 $141619 S2520$0

s0 $1209 (59635$2520 $4285 ($61347) ($72650 ($81845$0 348 $1491120 $0 $2520 $2520 $12331 ($23519) ($58247)$4370 0 ($70426) ($80234)$0 348 $15209 $252021 (36300Y $2520 54458 0 $0 12689 ($174 ) ($55306) ($68351) ($78761)348 $15513 (53780) $19293 ($8691) ($51167) ($65484) (76761)

$143695 S5m0 0 so 7018 $260478 $194515 $65963

A-7

TABLE A-4 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BENEFIT-COT3 TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Aralysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019166

Caoital Costs Benefit Pararmeters Internal Rate of Return 339

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportation $0 Oil Escalat L(Wvear Disc PV of PV of BC

Construct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savrias 348 bblvear

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 S260478 $19455 $65963 134 TOTAL (Cao) $149995 2 $210540 $187381 S23159 112

4 $173097 $118787 ($8691) 095 Construct Time 10 months 6 $144614 $177355 ($32741) 382

8 $122638 $173805 1167 071 Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $105449 $170933 ($65464 062

11 $98253 $169701 ($71448) 058 Oerating Cost $2520 year 12 $91824 $168585 ($76761) 054

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $86064 $167571 ($81507) 051 14 $80885 $166647 ($85761) 049

Major Equipment RepairReDlacement 15 $76217 $165804 ($89587) 046 16 $71995 $165032 ($93037) 044

Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $64685 $163674 ($98989) 040 Replace Period 20 years 23 $58607 $162522 ($103915) 036

A-8

Ecromic and Fna-ia Aaysis for Ene-v investmerts - E yvt EEP shyi(I195

TABLE A-5

For ie ofFIELD TEST 44 - H-LWA-4 TEXTILEi C E-TO PR CE $305 FT - PRIZE OF OIL $35BBL) Assurjc Oil Escalation PR-e of 20

Saved Vaiue cfa-tal Ooeratlr_ Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererv a eO Anual poundan Flow Discounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year r st cost SPbl (bbl) [cst Eciv Errgv Cost Currert $ 4 8 10 12

I SI auxsiticr 1433

1 Trarsoort $0

EorstrLZt cr $0 SI-tercorrezt ior $0

Total $143 995 $420 $3500 0 so 58 $2030 S15-415 ($145385) (4148385) ($148385) (M142335) ($1483351$0 $2520 $3570 0 $0 348 $1424 $2520 $3904 ($138862) ($133215) ($39382) (13543)Sto S2520 $3041 0 $1 348 51-672 $520 $10(152W20476) ($130511) (S130992) ($131443)4 $1 $2523 $3714 0 S0 348 226 $2520 $10406 ($12C226) ($122251) ($23174 ($124043)o$0 2520 $3789 0 $ 34B $12184 52520 $10664 t$111I10) ($114413) ($115890) ($27266)

6 s0 $2520 $3864 0 $0 348 t53448 $252n 10928 (S102128) ($106975) (3109105) ($111065)70 $2520 $3942 0 s0 348 $13717 12520 S111137 ($93279) ($99 920) ($102785) ($10- 392)5 $0 $2520 $4020 0 $0 348 $13231 $250 $S1471 ($845 2) ($93226) ($33898) (M100204)9 VI $2520 $4101 0 so 348 $14271 S520 $11751 (175976) ($86878) ($91416) ($3f458)

10 $0 $2520 $4183 0 $0 348 $14556 $2520 $12036 ($67520) ($80E5) ($86312) ($11117)11 s0 $2520 42G 0 $0 348 $14647 $2520 1123227 (S52192) ($75147) ( 8155) ($7148)12 $ 0 $4352 0 so 348 $15144 $2520 $12624 ($5- 931) ($69732) ($77134) ($83519)13 $0 $2520 $4439 0 so 348 $15447 $2 0 $12927 ($42917) ($64599) ($73015) (W8320)14 $0 $ 50 $4528 0 $0 348 $I-755 $2520 S1323- ($34938) ($53732) ($69181) ($77168)15 SO $2520 $4618 (1 $0 348 $16071 $2520 $13551 ($27142) (S55118) ($5613) ($7439516 t0 $2520 $4711 0 $0 348 $16333 $250 $13873 ($1 439) ($50745) ($62232) ($71860)17 $0 $2520 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 $2120 $14201 ($I1657) ($4660) ($59201) ($G9544)18 $0 $25200 $4901 0 so 348 $17055 $250 $14535 ($4396) (02672) ($5632) ($67427)19 $0 $2520 $4999 0 $0 348 $17396 $2520 $14876 $2948 ($33949) ($53650) ($65492)20 $0 $2520 $5093 21

0 $0 348 $17744 $3520 $15224 $10174 ($35421) ($51161) ($3725)($6300) $2520 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3780) $21879 $20159 ($30727) ($47909) ($61457)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $303891 $194515 $103376

A-9

TABLE A-5 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE ENEFIT-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financiai Analysis for Erergy Investments -- Egyot EEA 10965

Capital Costs Benefit Parameters Internai Rate of Return 534

Acquisition $149995 Price of Oil $35K0 bbl (yr 1) Transport tior $0 Oil Escalat 20vear Disc PV of FV of PCConstruction $0 Rate Benefits Costs tPV Ratio

Interconnectior $0 Enrgy Savns 342 bblyear ==-- -Fuel Use 0 bblvear 0 $303531 $154515 $103376 156

TOTAL (Cap) $149995 2 $245630 $187331 $58249 3

4 $i20 46 $181787 20159 i11Construct Time 10 months 6 $163716 $177355 ($8639) 095 8 $143078 $173805 ($30727) 082

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 10 $123024 $170933 ($47909) 072 11 S114628 $169701 ($55 073) 068

Operating Cost $2520 year 12 $107128 $165585 ($61457) 064 Operating Lifetime 21 years $l40810 $167571 ($67163) 060

14 $94366 $166647 ($72281) 057Major Equipment RepairReolacement 15 $82920 $165804 ($76864) 054

16 $83994 $165032 ($81038) 051Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $75465 $163674 $88-08) 046

Replace Period 20 years 2 $68375 $162522 ($94147) 042A- 10

Eccricmi ane Finarcial AnalysiT fo Energy trvest-ents -- Ev-t EEA 101215

TAlKE A-5

For Case ofFiED TEST 04 - HELWPN TEXTIL=IPH (COLLECTD PRICE $3SFT- PRICE as OIL $40BBL) Ass mir Oil Esralatior Rate of 20

Savet Yait- ofCaoital ODerating Ccst of Oil Fuel bse Fuel Energy Saved fnrnal [a- Flch Liscounted Cash Flow (NPV) i = Year Cost Cost $bl (Bbi) CLst Ecit1 Energy Ccst C-rert$ 4 8 10 12

I Acc-ist on $142995 I -ras)ort $0 1 cnstr t o $0

I te-crrezt icr $0 Total $14995 $420 $400N 0 $0 58 $2320 $15045 (S143C135 ($14209) ($143095) ($142035) ($148095)S) $220 $4080 0 so78 ($138f6) ($137282) ($137478) ($137663)

$0 $2520 $4162 r $0 348 $1442 $250 $192 ($125806) ($127026) (M27592) ($128132)4 so 12120 $4245 0 s0 348 $14 77 S25K0 V2252 ($114914) ($117300) (1115337) ($119411)soS0 2 $43310s _$0 25 $330 0 1-7j(1147 0 ($04188)6 $0 $2520 $4416

$0 348 $15$7 525 $12547 ($108077) ($109817) ($111437)0 $0 348 s15 $252 $12849 ($33627) ($93322) ($1083S) ($104146)7 so $2 520 $4505 0 V) 348 $ 676 S21520 $13156 ($83230) ($31042) ($94412) ($97481)

8 $0 $2520 $4595 0 $0 348 $15 9 o 2520 S13470 ($72934) ($83 182) ($57500) ($9388)9 $0 $252) $4687 Q $0 348 $I309 $2520 $3 789 ($62918) $75732) ($31067) ($85818)10 $0 $2520 $4780 0 $0 348 $6631 5 2520 $14116 ($53001) ($68671) ($75081) ($0728)11 $0 $2520 $4676 0 $0 348 $1696 $520 $14448 ($43240) ($61979) ($69510) ($76076)12 $0 $2520 $4973 0 $0 348 $17308 $2520 $14788 ($33634) ($55636) ($64327) ($71825)13 $0 $2520 73 0 $0 348 $17654 $2520 $15134 ($24181) ($49626) ($59505) ($67940) 14 $0 $2520 $5174 0 $0 348 $18 007 S250 $5487 ($14880) ($43932) ($55019) ($64391)15 $0 $2520 $5278 0 $0 348 $ P367 $2 520 $15847 ($572-3) ($38537) ($50646) (55148)

$0 $220 $538316 0 $0 348 $18734 $25032 ($33425) ( 5) (58186)17 s $2520 $549 0 $0 348 $191$2 250 $I5 9 $12 131 ($328583) ($43354) ($55480)18 $0 $2520 $5601 C $0 348 $19491 $2520 $IE971 $20844 ($23996) ($39997) ($53008)19 $0 $2520 $5713 so 348 $19881 $2520 $173C1 $39414 ($19651) ($36874) ($50751)20 $0 $2520 $5827 (t $0 348 $20273 $2520 $17759 $37843 ($15536) ($33370) ($48689)21 ($6 300) $2520 $5944 $0 348 $20684 ($3780) $24 A64 $49 008 ($10288) ($30334) ($46153)

$143695 $50820 0 $0 7018 $347 304 $194515 $152789A-1 1

TABLE A-6 (Contd)ASSUMPTIONS TABLE BEIEF7-COSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic nj Firancial Analysis for Energy Investmerts - Egypt EEA 10195G

azitai Costs Benefit Parameters internal Rate of eturr 714

Acuisition $149995 Price of Oil $400 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ior so Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BCConstruction so Rate Benefits Cost- NPV RatioInterconnection $0 Enrgy SavTgs 348 bbyear ==== =-shy

--- Fuel Use 0 bbear 0 $347304 $194515 $152 789 179TOTAL (Ca ) $149 95 2 $28D720 $187381 $93359 150

4 230796 $181787 $49008 127Construct Time 10 months 6 $192818 $177355 V15463 109 8 $163517 $173 805 ($10288) 094Ooerating and Norwal Maintenance Costs 10 $140599 $170933 ($30334) 08211 $13004 $169701 $33698) 077

fteratiri$ Cost 12) $122432 $168585 ($46153) 073Ooeratirn Lifetime 21 years 13 $1i 751 $167571 ($52819) 068

Major Equi~oent ReoairReplacesent 14 $07847 $166647 ($58800) 06515 $10i622 5165804 ($64181) 061

16 $95993 $165032 ($69 039) 058Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $86246 $163674 ($77428) 053Replace Period 20 years A12 20 $78143 $162522 ($84379) 048

ccz- a Firaca Araiysi- for Erergy IrvestL-rrts -- Ecyrt EC 01)83

TAP-LE P-7

For Case ofFIZLD TEST 4 - H-LWAN TEXTILEWAS-i i-AT PRESVERY wRIC2 SIS08L)DiL Assumiron Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved ValL- CCaoital DoeratinQ Cost of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erervy save kriual Cash Flow Discourted Cash Flow (NPV) 3 i =Yea- Cost Cost $b1 (Bbl) Cost Ecuiv Ererzv Cet Currert $ 4 8 10 12

1 Trar-s $0ort 1orstr-t lor $0

I I t e ronez t i m S-1 $735 $833 $Q500 C 0 1341 $27 62 53851 ($542231) (S542231) (S542231) (S542231) ($542231)Sc 53 S530 0 so 11045 $1ES034 11359 S76755- 0o62o) ($356235) (S93830) ($401450)SO $I1359 $15S1 $0 11048 S172415 jeuro $113-1S (3241715) ($252156) 3273 011353 V S 457 ($-=766) -4 to 259 $1592 0 iO 11045 $173863 1353 S164504 ($35471) ($127567) (142M1) ($15556)

Q S11359 $1624 0 $0 (148 17 I S11359 S63 -- $4 155 (340ampG) ($27 430) ($49185)6 11353 -016 U $0 11045 $182136 $12353 2171609 $183205 S12728 73126 1421917 $0 $11359 $1669 0 $0 14048 $186623 $S 353 i75269 $32772 $=223177 $173060 $136987$1125 $173 0 $0 11048 $536r $-53 S173001 $46 74S 3276-3 $263916 $2153S0 S111359 $1757 0 $ 11048 S194167 $13f $182808 S59735 $426389 5355 198 $29179210 $0 $1793 0 S0 11043 S1930L $3 $15 3 72H492 513781 $434373 S353115110 $11359 $128 0 S 1 $11048( I $190653 $357 30 $608090 $57 878 S420500 S0 $1365 0 $0 11048 $HS052 1-3 $134633 $383753 359159 $57617 $47646313 v0 $11353 $1902 0 $0 11043 S210173 $1- $193314 $1107338 $770542 $133465 1527500l$0 $11353 $1940 0 $0 11048 $214376 $1153 $203017 $223E665 $845191 $$5272 $574 0651373 s53$0 11048 1213664 $11359 $2737 $1349578 $915771 $7-2862 $61644516 $0 359 $2019 0 $ 11043 S223077 $11359 $211678 $1467116 $382501 $803536 $65511817 $ 511 353 $2059 0 $0 11049 $227498 S595 $216133 $1582514 $1045583 $850574 $5037518 1 1A3 S2100 0$0 11048 122C48 $1135 $2-20683 $1695810 $1105235 $894236 $7251719 $0 $11359 S2142 0 $0 11048 $236689 $11359 $S25330 $1807033 $1161623 $934764 $75181920 S0 $11359 12185 0 0 11048 $241423 $11353 $230064 $1316237 $1214932 1372331 $778531

21 $0 $11359 $2229 0 $0 11048 $246251 $1135 $234832 $202349 $1265328 1007296 $802881

$5679558 $Zgt9073 0 $0 222801 $0134711 $797031 $3337680

A-13

ASTYPTINS TABLE TABLE A-7 (Contd) BEEIT-rOT TAEPLE (Calculated)

Economic and Financial Analysis for Energy Investsents - Egypt EEA 10196

Capital Costs Benefit Faraineters interral Rate of Return 3101

Acquisitiorn $567952 Price of Oil 1500 bbl (yr 1) Trarsportatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of FVof BC

Corstruct ior $0 Rate Benefits Costs lrv Ratio

Irterconrection $0 Enrgy Sar_as 1104 bblyear -

--- ------ Fue Use 0 bbiyear 0 $41-4711 $77031 $3337680 519 TOTAL (Ca) $H67952 2 $34202-0 S755587 $2586433 442

4 t2747662 $72424 $2023439 379 Construct Time 10 morths 6 $2235 532 $700 138 $LJj5394 328

8$1946703 $68137G $1265328 286

Ooeratina and Normal Mairtenance Costs 10 $1673853 $666557 $1007296 251

11 $55962n $660307 $399314 236

Oerating Cost $11359 year 12 $1457578 $654697 $802881 223

Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $136G 136 $64- 645 $716491 210 14 $1283$40 $645083 $638857 199

Major Equipment PeoairReplacemert 15 $1209831 $640951 $568880 189 16 $1142817 $37197 $505620 179

Replace Cost $0 period 18 $1026777 $630653 $396124 163

Replace Feriod 20 years 20 $930302 $625165 $305137 149

A-14

Econoi an Fnarial alysi for Energy Irve te-pt -- Eryct EEP 10138_

TABLE A-8

For Case cfF7ELD TEST $4 - HE=LWqN TEXTILE4qSTE -_j E[CXERY (PRCE C7 OIL $2013E_) Assurn_ 0i Escaiaticon Rate of 20

Saved Vale cf Capita Doeratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved rrual Cash c-w-- Discounted Cash Flow (NOV) i = Yea- Cost Cost Eb (pb]) Ccst Equiv Ererz Cst Currert $ 4 8 10 2

oisi67Ac s tr

rarExrt $0 rorstrztio sc

IIrerccrr_tor $0 7 $200Y 0 C1841 1687Tctai$78K S 98 1 )$53C3 ) 315Z3 02) ($5330251 ($533025) ($533015)2 v $11355 $ 04Q 0 $0 11048 t225379 $1153 $214020 (327235) (S-34858) ($338461) ($341935)3 $0 $11353 $08i C $0 11048 $-23857 $1135 1-258 ($125195) (S147505) ($157B59) (167726)

4 $0 $1135 $21 22 0 $0 11048 $234465 $11359 $223126 $73163 $23619 $3778 (18910) $0 fI1-- $21E5 0 $0) 11048 $29174 $353 $227815 $26790 $197070 $r5 379 $125S71E $0 $13 2 2 083 0 so 11048 S2433K8 S1352 5-3 $459080 1355 373 $303805 $267854

7 $0 611355 $252 C $1) 11048 $243K7 $59 $27478 $4762 $505024 $-855 53881678 $ $1135 $227 0 $0 11048 $2K2814 353 -142455 $33007 $646494 $568272 $4978429 $1 35 $2343 (1 $0 11046 $253 83 $111359 s47 531 $1011876 $780227 $623747 $59781510 $0 $11359 $I39 0 $0 11048 $26068 $135 $252703 $1183426 $906644 $790920 $68894411 soS 1359 $2438 0 s0 l048 $2634 S1 359 S57990 $1363714 $1026144 3890387S77201012 $0 $11359 $2487 0 s0 11048 $274736 $353 $263377 $1534793 $1139102 $982699 $84772513 $0 S11259$2535 0 $0 11048 $280231 $11359 $268872 i1702736 $1245874 $1068389 $91673814 $0 $11359 $2587 C0 $0 11046 $285835 $1359 $274476 $1867573 $1346733 $1147876 $97364015 so $11-359 $2629 0 s 11048 $291552 $i135 S28193 12023383 $1442193 $1221659 $103697316 $0 S1359 $2632 0 $0 11048 1237383 S353 $22-024 $2188202 $1532360 $1290131 $108922917 $ 111359 $2746 ( s0 11048 $303331 $11359 $291972 $234408 $1617584 11253673 $113885618 $0 $11359 $2800 0 $0 11048 $303-97 $115 $298038 $2497093 $1698134 $1412638 $118026419 $0 $11359 $2856 0 $0 11048 $315585 11359 $304226 $2G47268 $1774267 $1467356 $1219 8520 $0 $11359 $2914 0 $0 11048 $321897 $11359 $310538 $2794663 $1846222 $518131 $125588121 $0 $11359 $2972 0 $0 11048 $328335 $11359 $316976 $2939326 $191422 $565248 $1288740

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 i5512948 $797031 $4715917

A-15

P7UrSPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-8 (Contd) EtEFIT-CSTS TABLE (Calculated)

Ecoroic ard irarcial Analysis for Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA 1019E6

apital Ccsts Benefit Parareters Irterral Rate of Return 4220

Acquisition $567958 Transportation $0

Construct ior $0 Irtercor rectior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

Enrgy Savrgs

$2000 bbl (yr 1) 20year

11048 bblyear

Disc

Rate

----

PV of erefits

PV of

Costs NPV

BC

Ratio

TOTPL (Cap) $567958 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 J55948

2$4456027 $797031 $75587

$4715917 $3 700440

6 2 590

Construct Time 10 corths 4$3E 3550 6$3060 709

$724224 $700 138

$2939326 $2 360571

506 437

Operating and Normal Maintenance Costs 8$2595604 1(V$2231804

$681376 $666557

$1914229 $1565248

381 335

Operating Cost Operating Lifetime

$11359 iyear 21 years

11 $2079494 12 $1343437 13 T1821515

$660307 $654697 $649645

$1419187 $1288740 $1171869

315 297 280

Major Equipment RepairReplacement 14 $1711920 15 $1613108

$645083 $640951

$1066837 $972157

265 252

Replace Cost $0 period 16 $1523756 18 $1369035

$637197 $630653

$886559 $738382

239 217

Replace Period 20 years 20 $1240402 $625165 $615238 198

A-16

Eccw= ar -narzia Pnav=_is fcr Erergy Irvestrrent_ -- Egypt EEC 101

P= A-9

or Case of2IED TEST 4 - HELPAN TEXTIEN3TE HEAT -CDOERY (PC- U BBL- ----Assmir Cil Escalation Rate of 20

SaVEdt C~famta eratirg Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Energy Saved Annal Fasn Flow Discounted Cash Flow (UOV 8 i = lea- Cost Cost $Pb (8b1) Cost Ec-jiv Energy Cost Crrert I 4 8 10 12

I Transocrt corst rutr $7

rterornazticota HS 833 7 1841 $4S 73 -3951 C$52818 (WBIB) ($52381 1 (3523818) ($53218)SC 51133 $20 0 048 $22172 U3 $27365 ($263851 1(2731480) (278031) ($262421)$0 $11359 $2601 0 $0 11042 7=5 $12$3 5275 999 (-S74) (368Z5) 333343900253 ( 15)0 111049 ( $359 _51 747 $241737 $I82 805 $161748 5131462Q 07C 11043 S2531558 11259 12379 $477 s46 $323206 $35188 $32 27$0 $11-_ $2760 0 1n 11043 $304 94 $11 3 3 24E7--555 $722 55 $5S3 Mf $5404 - $$487517$7 $-~5 $2315 0 11048 $712 1353 $233 53 5 872 $786 871 $709649 $639347$ $1 5282 0 $0 14 391141292 0 IK93

656f $8662 S7777253SiZ bull0 $312 5 $1426427 T113465 $10122372 9 3 39 $ 35- $2983 0 $ 145 $33035 1 3 3 726 $165035 $12350M S1147467 $108774$C $135 $304711 0 S0 11046 $3365pound 5ii5 $325 22712 $)

187C 129t44419- $1272895 SI 2351$- $3103 C S 113 $34$2 - 132206 $20S53 S1556613 11353280 $ PIE98c13 3 S317 0 v 1 5$143 250 $11159 $3352 $2237533 I 72120 $47274 $1305375SO 51253 $2340 s0 104 S3 $184840-

0 SO 11041 $364 $11353 5081 3709183 519E861E $262) 456 S1457500 15 Ss35-2 $3293

3 17294 $1 9 $ 9-- $ 293 $157473 $138525-5

16 V0 $1353 $3365 0 s 1I1Ns -3717 21f5 $230328917 - $ 7C 1270 2082220 $776726 $1523340$7 $II35 $34 32 0 $0 1104c8 $37312 $11 $372 4 $3105663 $2183578 $156771 1533718 S 1-13 $35 1 0 so 1048 $7332377 t1931039 $1638010$22-103419 $0 $11353 $3571 0 $0 11048 $3544S2 $135q Q83123 $3487437 $2385910 $M947 $168783120 $0 $1135q $364( $0 11048 $40-37 $1135 $391212 $3673088 $2477512 $2053881 $1733230$0 $11359 $3715 021 $9 11048 $40419 $113553 $399060 $3855214 $2563130 $2123 19 $1774600

$567 9S3 $--3073 0$0 M 801 $6831186 $737031 $6034154

A-17

SUPTIONS TABLE TABLE A-9 (Contd) EENPT-OET TAKE (Caiculated)

Ecoc an Firarzial Palysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA 1l6

Caits Co=ts Berefit Parameters Irterrz2 Rate R~Return 5368

Acquisition $567958 trice of Oil $250 i-b (yr I) Tarsprcrtator

Constructior

Interconnectior

$0

$0

so

Oii Esalat

Enrgy Savnps

2 0vear

11042 bblyear

Disc

Rate

V Cf

PerEfits

V of

Costs -IV

FC

Ratio

------------TOTP (ap 57959

Fuel Use 0 bl1year 0 $f)83 33

$797031 75537

1609454 $481444E

865 737

Construct Tire 10 rnortns 4 14573 437 6 $332f 886

$724224Q13855214 $700138 $S-125748

632 546

OperatinL and Ncrmal MaIntenarce Costs 3- L 5)5 1 $27K755

$ES376 $666557

5t 130 $2123199

475 419

Ooerating Cost

OperatiTrg LifetiMe

$1359 year

21 years

1 if25H37 2 $24229

3 S2276893

$660307 G 5o637

$649645

$5939081 $1774600

16-2724

394 371

350

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemert bull~~l i4$2239005 -2 01S32

$64508 $14948162051 375435$640 1 $ 4 5

3 2 315

Replace Cost

Replace Period

$0 period

20 years

16 $1X4 695 18 S1711294

20N $1 550 503

$637197 $1267498 $530652 $1080641

$625165 $925338

299 271

248

A-18

Econr- ard Fra--a haavsi fcr Er=rv investerts -- Ecyzt E

For Case ofFELD TEST 4 - HELWANTEXTILES3TE -9T REZOVERY (PCE C-O 3IBiL) PssuTir~g Oil Escalation Rate c 20

Year Capital

Cost Ooeratir

Cost Cost cf Oil

$lBbl Fuel Used

(Ebl) Fuel Cost

Saved Erergy Eauiv

ValS cf Saved

Enercy Pnral

Cost Ls iCh Crrert 1

Di-cousteJ 4

Cash Flow 8

(NPV) i 10

=

12

I P~uis~xor~1567958 Transvort $0

1 cntrct mc- 1Irte-ccrret ic

a1s

4

6

Q$ 11

12 13

14 5

16

17

18

19

20 21

$

to 11Z so 1353 C 1-S s$o $1

$0 t13

$0 $i359 $0 $

S 11135-

3 $0 $11359

$0 $1359 $ $-353

$0 I353 0 $ 111359 $0 111359

so S11359 SC $11359

$ $11359

$0 $11359 $0 $11359

$4so $ $3121 $3164

824

$3312

$3378

$3445 $3515

$3657 37730

S33(

$138 $3958 $4033

$4118

$4201

$4285 $4370 5445

(1 0

C

0

0

C00 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 C

0

0

0

0 0

$0 $0 $0

$0

$0

$0

SCso $0

$-$0

$0 $0

$0 $0 s0

$0

so

$0 $0 $0

184 1104 11048 11048

1104S

11048

110 3

11048110 I 8

1(148 11048

11049 11048

11049 11048 11046

11048

11048

11048

11048 11048

S5524C

$338069 S344831 t3727

$3537S

$ 37

$37-

t33-7 2$38 3 $383335

$3161 $4(402

$412104 $42034S

$423753 $47328 $445075

$454995

$464056

$473378

$482845 $492502

$563851

S11355 $11359 S11355

5

11135

$1352

11355s

115335

$1359 $11359

$113 $112-59 $11353

$11353

$11353

$11359 $11359 $11359

11) ($514611

S2 710 33471 $1784 $340368 $410431 S$34740 1 $7 392 IK3457 $333829

i351390$123484

-255 $15= 3 $11353$27976 $1840978 S13-36384743 $2111293

9 $3665 $2376563

$40$745 1636279 $40S987 $2 832331 $417394 $2142007 42 99 $338934

$434716 $6Sl376

$443637 $387238 $4E2 737 14093661 $452019 $4327726 $471486 $4155514 $481143 $4771101

($51461

$73796 $343991

5539 342

$84661

$1063717

S284236 $1487914

$680371 S1862251

$2034124 $21955326

$23--0 013 $2495039 $262079

$2761573

$2883934

$2999553

S3103802 $3212031

($54611

$5-7994 $313717

$50998

$77162

$975443

$164984 $134)846

$504014 $165540A

$1795862 $1926178

$2047082 $2159253 $226-3321

$2359869

$2 449 441 $2532539 $2609631 $2681150

($514611)

06

$42935 $285202

$S505933

$707180

$80527

$57603 $1209862 $1348604 $1475031

$1590 236 $1695213

$79)359 $1878030 $1957451

$2029818

$2095757

$2155838

$2210580 $2260459

$567958 $229073 0 $0 222801 $8 269423 $797031 $7472391

A-19

TABLE A-10 (Contd) ASSUMPTIONS TABLE EENEFIT- ST TABLE (Calculated)

Econoraic are Fin=-ial alycsis for Energy Investments - Egypt EA 101965

iaital ccsts Bereifit Parameters internal Rate of Peturr SE55

Acquisition $H67353 Price of Oil $3000 bbl (yr 1) Transportatio $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BIC Constructior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NPV Ratio

Irterconectior $0 Errgy Savncs 11048 bblyear ---shy=-- Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $8263423 $797031 $7472391 1038

TOTAL (Cap $79-53 24$6684040 $755587 $592Or 453 S85

4$542E325 $724224 $4771101 753Construct Time 10 months 6$459063 $700138 $3890925 656 8$3 893 406 $681376 $322 031 5 71

Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $2347706 $666557 $2681I0 502 - 11 $3119241 $660307 $3458934 472

Operating Cost $1359 year 12 $2915155 $654697 $2260459 445 Operating Lifetime 21 years 3 $_73 272 $64364Z $2081627 421

14 $2567880 $645082 $1922796 398Major Equipment RepairReplacemient 15 $2419662 $640951 $1778712 378

16 $228-634 $637197 $1648437 359 Replace Cost $0 period 18 $2053553 $630653 $1422900 326

Replace Period 20 years A-20 20 $1860603 $625165 $1235439 298

poundcenrzzc ar Firarial Analysis fcr Energy irnvesttterts -- EZyt pound2~ 10g88

TABLE A-Il

For Case of-EL TEST 4 - ELqN E LEA ATEP2ERy -E-D701 $35KL) Assumir Oil Escalaticn Rate cf 20

Savet- Vaiue cflaza 2eratn Cost of Oil Fuel Used Fuel Ererpy Saved Arnual Can_ Flow Discourtee Cas Flow (NV) i =Yea Cost Cost $pbl (Ebl) Cost Eauiv Enercy Ezt C-rrert $ 8 10 12 - -cuisittor -567-

Trarsocr $

crstrttir Irterznr or $0

7t Z-=7s5 3 $3Z0I 0 $0 1841 $amp4447 $59652 $505 405) ($-5405) ($505 405) (50540)5 ($55405$0 $11359 t3E70 so 1048 $34414 $11359 $353055 ($137083) ($I724) 173) ($16331)$1 $1359 $940 $ 1048 $4(2 32 $11353 $39C 76543 1224 $16444S $HE 92 $1482664 $0 $11359 $3714E Q $0 11043 359 89$41(2348 $1139 52 8 $5068 SSC I217 $4 5 6 7so TIIM $3789 Q V1 11043 $418E5f $11359 S$4)7 IgS 76 $4651687 $432258$927 138 $300478 $7432 807 $6i9103g

$0 $1359 $3864 0 $0 11048 $42S 98 $415527m3 833 $65704 11 C V001841o$0 1135g $3942 0 $0 11048 $435464 $11359 $$424105 $1603881 $135-564 124238 $1141707$ - $420 0 $0 1104-8 $4174 s3523 $43281- $232784 $1503107 $h63340 $1337491$0 $11359 $4101 0 $0 11048 s4_z_c- $ -9 S 4441-93$22E 52 $841743 $1S89396 $15158685$0 Sn359 $4183I 0 50 11049 $4621E $I353 $450753 $2572227 $206723 $1860582 $1878434 0 $11359 $4266 0 so 11048 $471-8 $125912 $46C 12 $22-987 $2280305 $2037912 $182S542t $1-9 43520 2

$0 11048 $48075 $1359 $4E9423 $3187919 12451E35 $2202444 $i961492$ $1139 $4439 0 $0 1104S $49C404 $11159 $479 4- $3437129 $2671870 $2375023 $2084450$0 S359 $452814 0 $0 11048 $50212 $113515 $483853 $378072 $2851 620 $2495386 S2196483s$ $I359 $4618 0 s0 11048 $51G216 $11359 $498557 $4065793 $3021462 $22205 V 298 559$- 52 $471116 0 $0 11048 $520420 $1$37 5 150306 1 $4351463 $3181939 $274916 $2391563$1359 $4805 0 $0 11048 $53129 $11359 $51347Q $4628812 13333567 $2882967 $247629 18 $0 S1359 $4901 0 $0 11048 $541445 S11359 $530086 $4900944 $347583K $2S7842 $255350319 so $11353 $4993 0 so 11048 S=52274 $11359 S540915 $5167955 $3612197 $3065131 $2L3644$0 si359 $509920 0 $0 11048 $530 $1135921 $551961 $5429939 $3740093 $315381 $2687930$0 $11359 $5201 0 so 11048 $574586 $11359 $563227 $56869B9 $3850932 $3239101 $2746318

$567958 $229073 0$0 2L801 $9647660 $797031 $8850629

A-21

SSUmOTIO3 TAlBLE TABLE A-lI (Contd)

PNEFT-COSTS TALE (Calculated)

Economic and Fir ancia Analysis fc-Energy Investments -- Egypt EEA I0P386

Calita costs Penefit arazeters

$cuistion$Z723 Price of Oil $ h500bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtation t0 Oii Escalat 20year Corstructcr $0

Irtercornection $0 Enray Savs 11048 bblyear -- - Fuel Use 0 bblyear

TOTAL (Cap) $5 57 8

Construct Time 10 mnrths

Coeratir ard Normal Maintenance Costs

Ooerating Cost $1135 yEar Operating Lifetime 21 years

MaJor Equipment RepairReplacemert

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

A-22

nterral Rate of Return 7785

Disc PV of PV of Rate Benefits Costs NTV --- _--

V S9647EGO $7-7031 $8850629 N $7793047 $755587 $7042460

4 $E411212 $724224 $568698961S 3S240 $700138 $4656102

8 $454 307 $681376 $3860 93-10 $305657 $666557 $323910111 Q633114 JE0307 $2978 SO3 I E $3401015 $654697 $2746318 I 387650 $S4964c5 $2538005 14 $25860 S645C83 $2350776 15 t- B940 $64051 $2181939

16 $266E 573 $37197 $2029376 18 $2395812 $630653 $1765159 20 $2170704 $625165 $1545539

BIC Ratio

1210 1032

885 75

667 586

551 519 491

464 440

418 380 347

Econoir a-nFinaci AralySi f- Ererzy InvEstments -- 07ptE LE

TP93

For Case ofFIELD TEST 4 - F1-LWA TEXTT -- (nC O= ]L s40PEt) Assuirz Oil Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Value cCaita 29ratir s of C Fuel Used

Fuel Erer y 3ave_- pal Casn Flo^ fLiscured Cash Flc (NPV 2 erCost Cost I Ib) Cost Euiv --ervy Cost Currert 3 4 8 10 12

1 7rans~crt $0

$ Tr O iS - 0 2$0 124 373655 39=851 ( 433193 (14351 ($ 6 1 8 $4 5 1 8931 4968l$ --3 $4020 0 VI 11048 $45C 3SI23 $42 2S W3698) ($33473 (35744) ($103877)0 1_3 0 so4152 1248 453 774 5 $34085amp Q95 07$0 443415 $ S273847 553596= S24 45 $0 1048 $45-95 $11359 $4Z7E $74770 SS5362 517656 573314S0 C 5 $4330 0 $0 11048 $47-34c 31259 $425339 $114f884 $$001513 5936616 $8760940 $59 $44E 0 $0 11048 4$10 1253 $47_55_9 1532579 13-2950 1232520 11146505

- c $S450- 0 sO N04E 147574 i $4263559 13C $1632410 $507021 $392887$10 $11259 14535 0 $0 11042 $5077 $ 3~5$1 268$4-3 $2700043 121 978 $176169G $167374I 135 $4627 0 so Ns04 1577S s259 S2670080 9f5282o 1 7 14W 2 I $19337945 5182903$478S 0 $0 043 $1s53 S52776 13033160 12454038 $2217103 20026411 9 $47 0 014876$S-E_ 4 1104--20 = 3 5pound 7 07$14800803 0O $3269358o$0 c 359 S 3 7 $2442 421 $217805$

s2 37115$5171 $0s14 1 S355 $E74 11048 S -511113-f 1743 102 $4C1L 27 $13147202 $2783 987 $24736230 $0 114048 517 311 HI9 S56312 $4418436 S13357 $294628332217 12602037I5 $0 $1353 $1z Sf 312$7578 0 $0 11048 $I 319 $439 _7$3$527404 $59 -40$7745 $278 gO $ 43$4743604 $3547884 $30998428 $2719087$0 $I Ec $383 016 $0 11048 $5547ES v11255 $H62407 S5072550 $3 799 $323E511 12825674$11359 $549 0 S0 1048 SE s 311 50 $ 9-25562U $2 2 718 $O $1-253 $5 0 $0 11048 61875 1i3 $470 8 40693133 1482244 20120715 $0 135I $5713 0 so 11043 $5217 3 77$113 9 775 $470 $2248 4 01 7$30912010 $0 11359 $5 827 0 $0 11048 $642794 $11359 $632435 $S39t367 $4371382 $370130 $3165280

21 $0 $11359 $5944 0 $0 11048 1656570 511359 S645311 6602876 $4509833 $3797052 $3232177

$567953 $ 29073 8970 10 801 511 02-5 $797031 $10228866

A-23

TABLE A-12 (Contd)PSSI PTIONSTAJKE rEnJT-DETS ^2LE(Caiculated)

E~onoma~infncia fcr Erery Investwerts - Egypt EA 1036

LapitE --ts Penefit Parameters ternr ate cf ketur 9060

Pquisition $-57958 Price of CI Trasortaticon $f CiI Escalat

onstructIon $0

iterzorr-ction $0 Ernrgy Savrs ------ Fuel Use

77A ao) $567958

Construct Time 10 months

OpEratirg ar N-rmal Mairterance Ccsts ------

Operating Cost $1355 year Operatirn Lifetime 2 years

Major Eqiprent RepairRezlacement

Replace Cost $0 period Replace Period 20 years

$4K lbb (yr 1) 20year

11043 bbllyear

0 bblyear

Ns PV of PV of Rate eni L-sts NPV

0$11025 397 1797031 $1022666 2 25q3 75E587 $ 156466 4 $7327100 $724-4 $6602876

6 $$121418 $700138 $5421280

e5191203 $68376 $4509833 10 $4463603 $66-57 $377C52 11 $4152988 $G 307 $3498681 12 $3865874 $654697 $3232177 13 13643029 $543645 $2993384

14 $3L423840 $645083 $27875615 S3226217 $6402351 $2585266 16 13047512 $637197 $2410315 18 $2738071 $630653 $2107418 20 $24008 5 $625165 $1855640

BC Ratio

1383 1179

1012

874

762 670

630

594

561

531 503

478 434

397

A-24

-c-nc an Firanzia Pralysisfcr Erergy Irvestrents -- Env t E 0

TALE P--3

Fer Case tfFEI7E3ET4 - FLN TEXTILESCLR PLUS

Assuming Oil Escalafior Rate oF 0

73 T ECCeZRY (PR_5rCF OIL S15BL)

r a

bull

etaIOiertrg

ssost Ccst Of Oi

$I Fe Lse

(E-12 Fuel

Save -Enery Eciv

a L Ef SaveS

Erery ra Ccst

asn Fli CLrrert f

sccunted 4

Cash Floo (NPV) 8 10

i

2

bull

4

5

7

0

1

2

13

14

16

17

is

19 20

21

r S CCrrnst cr $cr

erzcn11 on

Toa7 52 $2313 $ 13279 SC 13279 S t13979 $ $2673

C5r2

$0 $13573

S $13873 $ S$13279 $0 t373 $0 $13 79 $0 $387 $0 $13S79

$0 $1357S

$0Si 3279 $0 513879

$0 $13279

$ $137

0 $13879 $0 $S3879

($E300) $13879

$711653 $279893

V500

$1530 S561

S5592 $1624 $16565

$1689

$1723 $1757

$1733

$1326

$1265

I -

$1140

$1973 $20

S205 $2100

$2142 $2185

$22-29

0 0

0

r)

0

0

r

0

0 0 0

0

0 0 0

0

O$0 189 $28490 $720263 $0 1396 $17453 $13 S7 $0 113SE $177346 t-879 $$C 13 $1803 2a7g $$0 1139 12503 S1387 $0 1396 $183732 7 2 2S 0 13 $192 3 $13879

$0 1 c 9E3 8761 $0 11396 $20 2E3 $3872 $0 1396 $20423 V2 273 $0 11396 $20335 S13873 0 1132H $212542 T2272 $0 11396 $216733 $1387 $0 11396 $221129 $13879

to 1139S $25f2 3 $0 11353 523063 $13873 $0 11396 $234664 $13873 $0 11396 $23357 $13879

$0 11396 $244144 $13879 $0 11396 $249027 13879 $0 11396 $254008 $7579

$0 22819 $4264950 $991546

A-25

(77-773(5691771 1$691776) 164 C ($537432) ($542184)

$ 367 138E872) (M402609) 37524 ($23E944) f$263623) $17 ($90642) ($143 2 73174853 $307 -14 -- 7G 4 ( 8 $173627 $194245 $8774amp

$182477 t33293 $114220 S1 404 $49117 $2-4229 $10 410 s 027 $390 181 $154496 $734291 $490270 $193663 $86Z339 $565474 $202914 $3073 $amp46054 $207250 $1114548 722259

$11amp73 $1236783 $794325f216184 $356823 $862476 t220785 474702 $92921 $22- 478 $590456 $987860

$23)265 $1704121 $1045484 235148 $1815733 $10-971

$24642 $1928200 $1152842

$3273404

(691 776) ($691776)

($545885) ($543491) ($410376) ($417777) ($264512) (532537) (17613) (189767) (9 ) ( 1( $ 53 0 4 -4 ) -$1) $41737 ($53)

$135427 S82491 $22238s $157776 $303138 $M-6440 $373125 $289063 $447755 34o174 $S12410 $398257 $572443 $445753

$S28193 S8066$679935 $528562

$727985 $564576 $772594 $597416

$814010 $27360 $852458 $6546G2 $889088 $680208

TABLE A-13 (Contd) PSc6UY1TTG TAKE 52ZFEI-CSTS TXLE Calculated)

Econo iar narza 9Aais- for ErErgy Investments shy Eypt EZE 1ci35

Capital Ccsts Benefit Parameters Irternal RatE c Return 24953

~ccui i tcr717953 Price of Oil $15Y0 bbl (yr 1) T-ars~crtat ion $0 Oil Escalat 20year Disc tV of V of BC

crstruct ion $0 Rate Benefits Costs NP Ratio Intercornectior $ Enrgy Savrs 11396 L11year

FuE US= 0 bbiyear 0 $4264950 $991546 $3273404 431

TOTPL (Cap)-77953 2 447230 $942ss $2 504m 366 4t $2334211 $301011 $1928200 313

Costruct T 0 mth_ 357 838 $877493 $1490346 270 12110080 $85511 $112842 235

Operatin and Ncrma aintenarce Costs 0 $7 S76 $837483 $883068 0 11 $1608747 $830008 $778739 194

Operatin Cost Oeratirg Lifet1 M1

$_87T year years

2-$502490 13 $1403 168

$823281 $917216

$660203 $9195

183 172

14 $1324383 $311730 $512652 163 Major Equipert ReoairRepiacemert 15 $1247940 $80S 754 $441185 155

16 $1178815 $80222 $37658S 147 Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $1o9119 $794327 $264792 133

Replace Period 20 years 20 $3959605 $787687 $171918 122

A-26

-- tr- er F-= v fc E-r= 1r tesirt_Egyrt EEP

TqPPLE P-4

F- caecfFlDTST t4 - UEL$Q TEXTILESDLAR PLUS WASTE HET -COVERpY(Pj- OF OIL $S31PL) nssuring Cil Escalatio- Pate c

Ltal Ccst cF Oil Fuel Used savet Va- cCa 0eratin Fuel Er-er SavE Armia Lasn FowDy riscoured Cash Fco (N7V) i vew t cost $b (b) Cost Eciv nert Cost Currert $ 4 810 10 12

ftP ic ro717953 I rarszc-t $0

r r $0|

f7753 $t S2100S23-13 so 1233-7 37 933747 ($S62-202 (23N ($682280)S Z-2) z $11279 M--7

3 2 $12 $Q373 (447205 $47 67-3 t$453t2 ($487110)3173 $DE 3S 2 2712 T 3S1249 t1$2532) ($2Sj731 ($292049 ($30-23)v W 2n UL22 22732

4 0 so 37 7 SE2923 (-2742S) ($27 531 ($146842)$0 1 57 $ 3 H 5 7 8 fit 73 1 2 8 0$2208 0 $0 3S tKj2 H872Q $237763 121 449 1-543 $17901 S6 3$ $1o73 32152 0 so Ins I25 E7 $1373 524796 152334 S373 47 o1l953 12503tq7 $21 0 so ni8 $2E 8( C3973 t715740 521 13 $24792954413 $1 190

0 $ 1279 $2343 0 33 6 5S L3 73 152 ME3 $22726 SSE913 = k S473433C En 1i c SC 2H6 127-ESE $1373 5237506504E52517O3 $71230 S672916 56391 $0 $13379 $2438 0 $0 113H S773-S25 272 4 5 7 $911492 $726E2 $651646I1 $0 S879 $2457 0 SO 3 $322 1372 5251 1143736 $7C702 $SE7144 $72912313 7 =36 s2 5 $1273 $275173 M160612 S113 353 5954024 $7 55514 SO H1079 121E7 0 so 1s3 I234m3 I 73 $2503H0 1772343 $123966 $1036208 S 414415 $ $1o7 $S3 0 $0 11336 C3002 $1 $3K7Z $1372 $St7557 S M37330 A1746$9M 840a $- 2 56 c so 3 1m237i 123287 129 3 MI42 LEE $97E34717 SO $13879 $-740 $0 1296 531S3525

12 7 1387 $2-30 $2 $51637 5 4E97 5 A 2vO 1 ST2 0 0a7 $209 1123S 1314 $13879 1305 264 $241E979 C59 43E 30N IbX3 581Ws19 $0 11387 $2356 0 $0 11336 $3H526 $13879 $311647 $2570817 $1677425 5133377 $111010820 $0 $12879 $2114 0 $0 i13 $33203S $13879 $318157 $2721828 61751146 S415399 $114704821 ($6300) $13879 $272 0 $0 11396 $338677 $7579 $331028 $2872937 $1822182 $1464614 $1181372

$71653 $279893 0$0 M819 S56686) $991546 $4095054

A-27

TABLE A-14 (Contd) 3M-S rET-N7 CSTS TPULZ CalLNated)

Ecobullric anf 7rT a f- Erer Investrents -- E F ay A 1916

Capita Sosts BersEft taraampeters R-ae -eturf 3402

Aczuisitjorn $717953 Trarnscrtatior $0

Price of Oil Oil Escalat

$2000 bbl year

(yr 1) poundai_ PEcf cf BC

Zcnstructior $0 Rate Penefits Costs NOV Ratio ir$tez)rectio

TOTAL tCa ) $717 953

Enrgy Savrs Fuel Use

1129 bblyear 0 bblyear

==shy0$568GG00 2- $4 33257

$954E $342962

$4535 054 $3 534i

574 487

Lo stru 6 Time 10 con-h r1 e-

4$3773943 $357118

E2Z17363

$9S 011 $2 872 937 S877493 $2279625 $S5518 S1 822182

41736 360 313

rPEratino ans Nrmal Maintenance Costs

Oueratirg Cost $13872 year Cpratir Lifetime 21 years

0 S2302104-1-$214493G

2$2004 53 -1S 78330

$5374n9$330008

$S2323 $817216

$464614$131A93

$IE1372 2051674

275 258

243 230

Major Equiprent RepairReplacemernt 14 $17 5843 5 $1G663919

$311730 SS06754

$954113 $7 165

218 206

Replace Cost Replace Period

(N6300)period 20 years

16 $571753 18 $1412159 20 $1279474

$802 22 $794327 $787687

$769524 $617832 $491787

6 178 162

A-28

- ranzcal Analysis fc- Enery vestrent_ - Eynt EE 0

TALE t-E

77 P7 q (NU - C$Ipp Asumzr_ O EscaatorRate cf 0

ot _o-tr o

ct of Oil $1-

Fuel Used (Ebl)

FL Cost

Save Ergy

Ecuiv

a1e e-

Errgy r

ost Ca--ic

rrer $ DisEcurted Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

P i 12n

I

I

Acuis~tion S177 Trar-pcr T

cnstr=ticr $0 rernct cshy

7S7

-

V I

In

I $1227

t3S7

I27T

2E F - 03

1706Q_

0

0 $0

0S0 1

--shy29 S4748

E $-5

3 2419 122723 $32

I3F 13 33f

$72

137 $187 7 $13879

S2$ (333727-3

7Z73 ($4 707

SZS2 E-I (V454 1 135104E 3$2 4 S3--2S3

($672733)

($41ESE2)

$1743-7$c 271122

(72731

($421-20)

(SIS7723$23000

$2-1152

(S672783

(S4252

S201430)$4E39

$1203

-$ 3

14

IS 7

18 19

20

21

C$$3875

c $ 17

$17573-$$ S 2 73

S $12272

S 10 113273

$0 12E73

V$ 1-73 $0 7 $0 $1327

$0 $13872 V $13873

$0 $13873

(05300) $13879

12760 82

227272

3 $232

$3047

$3108 $317

$3234

$323

t$365 $3432

$3507

13571

$3642

13715

0

C

C J

0 C

0

0 0 0

0

0

0

1

10

$0

$c

so $0

so

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0

336 $314553 1133S $32844 2H t61735

133 1 3S 135G $34(432

1336 $7gt

1332 $354227 1133 $30132L

13 $363543

$37

139E $383432 11222 $23

1 S332$3=22 1133 $406 9-7

113 $415046

11396 $423346

s12 7 $i E74 $8 $47575_ $846 $13E79 1-_- - $ tq520120 s 379 3132332 1103568 S3f2050 1750934

01279 133227 11 _2433 $11024 27 $71 82 373 32 6S0 $1553 S02 $1183280 $038694 $S87 13-3413 S79 04 $1342714 S111722

$237 1o3558 2 134 $148368 $i2632 1387 $347443 $2217146 162562 5133723$ 1 $12753 $254670 $243-151 S1757074 S149 74

S3 $ E K22 $180334 C 5 53 $1337 $362S55 $2 44423 51933835 V16E3750 S3879 $377322 7223 $2106944 51 8M465

$1373 7-E5- $ 24502 $221101 84 2 05-$13 79 $3 3 028 $3437512 $2309366 $1912745

$13373 $401167 $3627923 $2402321 $1978339 S7579 $4f-5767 $387674 $2491523 $2040140

$3E2613 V1813

165S399

$78102 $32673

1014228

$111073 I31253

$282534

$1 35 $1424132

66

$5474 $1572856 S1 39434 $1682535

$71153 $273933 0 $0 22819 $7105250 $991546 $6116704

A-29

TABLE A-15 (Contd)gSSVL1TKE--- TAL-2 12alculated)

-cic ar -ari - lysis fc Erery rvestrrts - Egypt EEP i9IlS

Costs Perefit PararetErs Irsternal Rate cf Return 4318

M-quisition $7174953 Trice of il $200 bbl (yr 1)Transportat ir $ Ci1 scalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BICCostructic-n so

nate Derefits Costs f1] Ratio interconnection $0 Enrgy Savrs 11395 bbiyear

- -FUEUSEQ tYear 0 702250 $99FAG $E11Z704 717TOTPL (Cap) $717953 2$-74 483 $942 962 $4802515 609 4 $4723695 $905011 $3817674 521Construct Tirr 10 ronths $21-4pound397 $877493 $20E2904 450 8w $3 704 $855181 2 23 3910perztin and rcaMainterance Costs 10 $277630 $837483 $2 040 140 344

Operating Cost $13379 year 1I$2681 244 s830008 $1851237 323 12 $S2505816 iK23281 $162 535Operating_ Lifetime 21 years

304 13 $2348613 $817216 $1531397 287 14 $2207304 $311730 $139-574 2072Major Equipmert RepairReplacement 15 $2079899 $60E754 $1273145 258 1 $1924 $802229 $162462 245Replace Cost $300period 18 $176Z198 $794327 $370871 222Replace Period 20 years 20 $1593342 $787687 $811655 203

A-30

rcrc= ~ar rial Zralys- f- Erery lrivertfrentE -- E_=yt E

TQILE P-6

Fo Ca-se cfIELD TEST 4 - H-L4AN TEXTILPSIR

sunrini Esalation Rate cf 21

rILU3 WASTE H7AT Ey VD-- OIL 530B)

YEar aia

eratir Cost of Oil

cSst $1b Fuel Used ru

Ergry

Ecu I ZaVE f

ZnEr y Anru

COSt aS 7-06

rret 1 -iEzurtE 4

Cash 3

Flow (NV) 10

3 = 8

1 ra-rt

rn-rjt or $0 $0

4

2

14

15

16 17

is 12

20 21

73

$0 $7 so $0 $0$0 $0

C

$0

$0

S $ $0

so $0

$0 ($6300)

232-

23277w 37 63S

119 S387 $2879$13q73 $711$c

3273

1373 2733

S387-

S1237

2M79 $13r379

$12873 $13873

$13879 $3879

$35 S$ 60

3 284 $-247 S-is $3378 $3446$L515( $-c

$357

$73 0 $3805

$23

$-3958

S4022 $4118

$4201 $4265

$4370 $4458

00 0 0 0 0 0 0C

0

0 (

0

0

3 0

0

0 0

SO $0 SO $0 $l $0 $0 $0

S1 so $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 so

$0 $0

M51--S1333 $343 718 261- s337

33 2 33S $273062 3 $377453 233H $35012 336 3K1173I3 4f =c

$40Z S72

133S $41E750 136 $42525 1396 $43287

136 S442253 113 $451102

$4 2 1393 $4-C223 13^6 s4727-11396 $483289 i39g $498OE5 11396 $508016

hC S23873

$13873 S13873 T1387 $13 S72 $-

3 S 7 $23873 2 I12579 233q73

$17379

$12273 SI6373

513373 $13279

$13879 $7579

5

3332- ($$32236 (SS3386) ($$3335)12342333 ( H32t ( (1358887) 36 23 1813 (12- 1) (-- 20) (176337 ($3K-

-333743 27 264n4 27-3 $1Z756 1 5 35S133 $ 2-5 $47E533 $429034 S2-253 $3S3584 $32$TK-40 $65473 $559135 271133 $18 2 392 86423S777323 $378E34 $L5375Z $ E 66 103688 St458

- 44 3 $7 3 88 $230 S104765

3 202224 S57_- $1406472 S1247C37S402671 $DD141s $S773936$561796 $1376S11 1266 5r2 Q5SK235 S s 03

$41370P S2 79 $211E957 t 3653 $160275 $425379 13 27352 $227448 V3733 $437224 2 4$2 7t79390 $443246 125 32- $2564014 $285102 1J7317 $4-5449352 3 536 95 2284 $8294S311 $464336 $4070 026 $2322SE $2376786 12012911 $474410 $4304208 $2941307 $2462113 $2075603 $44176 $4534018 $305Z49 $2541279 $2130820 $500437 S47[2411 $3160864 $2615666 $2183698

$711653 $27993 0 $0 E29819 $8529900 $991546 $7538354

A-31

TLE TABLE A-16 (Contd)

- -1T E l-ate)

Znor~i ari -iraria2 alysis for Energy ireVstrents - Egypt EA1

LEitET Csts Eerefit Pararveters Interra Rate of eturr f255

Acouisition $752 ranspecrtaticr $$ Construction $0

rtercorrectior so

Price cf 04 0i Escaiat

Enrgy Savrs

$3 b (y-0yaar

1335 5byear

1) Dis- Rate

-

2V cf Benefits

PVof Costs NPV

BC Ratio

----------T2T_ CapL

--- Fuel Use 0 byear 852230C s432 $

$55 342 H5

77538254 $$f95$ 6A2- 6

860

--rstrct Tire 10 rths 4 $56642 6$473r-67

$90E 011 $877 49

$47E2411 $335- 184

62 E40

Operating and Nomra Maitenance Costs 8$4016044

10 $3452155 $8KZ 31 $827483

13 856amp4 $269666

470 412

Operating Cost Dperating Lifetime

$3872 21

year years

1 3217493 12n $00E930 13 $2218335

$33000c $823281 $817216

f2 387 486 $2183693 $2001 1

383 365 345

Major Equipment Repirez acement 4$2648765

15 $2A4S5619 $811730 $802754

1637035 $1689125

o 309

Replace Cost Replace Period

($5300)period 20 years

-$2327629 18 $2118238 20 $1919210

$822 $794327 $787687

$55 400 $1213911 $131524

-94 267 244

A-32

Eccic and iranza Pr-i- frEre irvEter -- Eypt EEq 10135-

TRPLE A-17

FcrCse TZST 44 - HELWN T-EE-2- WA7ST EW PRfL KMIY rOIL $351BL) Ass-ir- 02lEaldegio Rate cf 20

Saved Ya- cfCEita7 Ocratin Ccst of Di Fuel Used Fuel E rerry SavEd rd Caa--FioA Liscoured Cash Flow (MTN)Year -St cst SBbI (2b2) Cost Equiv i

rerV C-rrert $ 4 8 10 12

ransport P

I rt-rzcre ic $

ctal t777 SH$00 0 so

1833 5$477 $72255 ($$732 SE279 ) ($S5790) ($653790) ($53790)7-27 $-7 0Z27$0$ 3 $ 94) n- 3

0$0 r- 17365 $414974 $13673 SA 01 S354 $348 92-12 c30$ 12F7c S3714 $0 37 $42ST27 $13 $401-74793 B1 SZ384C $ $342M12 $302215$ $3789 11336 $437 379 S417 $7 $1873 $864 E $E 7 $7 -7730 $0 11336 1440374 $13873 $4 4K3 $G576 1$7330 $SK2736 $M57770 s0 13 44 $187 0 S

$43 E302 $1510 601 S1 E44 $1133453C 1 S7372 $4020 S103 Z- 7 84 S13 50 283 $13442 $1237257S 7S E $411 13 $473 1 873 $4344 $2173553 $1754865 $157379 $420428 I 13879 4183 0 $0 136 $47L575 $337 $4L73Sbull ~$ $--37 -n S2504 707 S9379 $ 7742-0 $ 873177 $42EE 13 $-71 11133S 1299 IO4 2 37$4 23 273 -2-3 $2823796 $225158 $9523 $733394S7 $352 0 so 11326 54H $ 3 4 $3332 $241302 1212330 t8773732 $ 73 $4433 0 $0 11336 55585 712579 $47 $34 $2607271 $2 282067 $200425014 1 $11279 $4522 0 $0

12 11335 S515963 $1 273 1522 089 $74=754 $273 888 2427504 $2 113 3155 $0 7873 $4amp81- S $28973 S4711

0 $ $ 227 1 79 1511405 44rN657 $296E343 $2 43a $22241640 so 3965 $53z 11E7 t=1937 $-6 113 13 $4232024 2687624 $2319702$534 $31311417 $ 1272 $48 0 $0 11336 $747542 1367 $ 33470 1 535 $328E967 $283766 $24057562 V $1187 $430 0 $0 11336 $55-50 $13873 $544621 $453 543 $3434161 $2311516 $24K07719 $0 $12879 $499 0 $0 11336 $569670 $13873 $555791 $5170903 353248 $3011480 $255835120 10 $13279 $509 0 $0 11396 $591064 $13879 $567185 $5440113 $3704671 $3104220 $26L420521 ($6300) $12879 $5201 0 $0 11336 $532685 $7579 $525106 $5707148 $3830205 $3191192 $2684852

$711653 $279833 0 $0 229819 $9951551 $991546 $80004

A-33

TABLE A-17 (Contd)

Econorni a 7inarcia ay-- fc Ener~y investmerts -- Egypt ZE r986

Ca~it~a cstz Perefit Parameters Irnterrna Rate of Return 6217

Pcquisiticn 7i Transpc-tation $ Constr-ct ior $0

inter-conrection $0

TOTQL (Cap) $717953

--iceof 21 OillEscalat

Enr y Savgs Fuel Use

135K bb (yr 1) 2Ovear

113- bblyear 0 Ltlyear

DI sc PV of Rate Eer eFits

0$9IK551 2$043677

PV of CoS1 ots

$91545 $942908

PaPV

$3960004 $7100709

3C Rat i o

1004 853

Corstruc Time 10 mcrths

Operatirq an Normal Maintenare Costs

OPeratir Cost $13879 year Operating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipmernt RepairReplacemernt

Replace Cost ($6300)period Replace Period 20 years

A-34

4 $6 613 1-S$ 24 95

8$4amp3825 $$4) 21

11 $3753742 2 $3506143 13$328058 14 $ C9026 15 $23159 16 $27550567 18 $2471278

20 $2239079

$906011 $877 493

$55S 131 $83748-$330008 $823 2 $817216 $S1730 $806754 $802 22n $794327

$787687

$5707 148 $4647 463

$3830205 $3191192 $2927735 $2684862 $2470842

$2278496 $10510-$1943339 $1676951

$1451392

730 630

548 481 452 426 402

381 361 343 311

284

Erno a - raial Ayaavs- fc EErcy IvestLErts -- E 5y 1NObr

TABLE A-B

For Case zf7- D EST 4 - PEWA TEXTLES2R olUS STE H- PE-5- G4-88 ZL Pssur 2i Esalaticr Rats cf 2(

Year

Laital

Cost

Oeratir

Ist

Cost Of Cil

$1IL5

Fue Use

(BL

FE

zc-st

Save Energy

Z4iv

V_-shy_ Saved

Energy

a1

Ccst

F1c

urre-t S

Dafiscourted Cash Flow (NPV) plusmn 4 8 -0 1

1 Trarspzrt $0

4

37--

0

$0

1

$16 $13279

$1387c

$40

$400 $4162

S4245

0

0

0

0

V

s0

$0

1239

11396 11396

336

$75973 $464957 $474255

- 6 $483741

$72026S

113379

137S 7 9 $13879

3644233)

S451078

$477U C 7 $463852

(S64433) (210fG4

14r1$2 5 o0n $-32786

(2644A) (12Z

$1 52 0 7 1

$541cent52

31544293)

(234=-) $ 4

$493269

(364423M)

S24 545) $24$ 5

$452903

A

7 8

-

10

12

13 14 15

16 17

18 19

20

21

$0 t0

0 $0 V $0

So

I$0 $0

$0 $0 $0

$0 $0

$0 $0

$0

($5300)

13273 T2879

$9 S237 $2873 $3873 $13873

$13879 $13879

$13873 $13873 42879

13673 $13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

$13879

14330 $4416

$4505 $4595 $4535 $4687 $4780

$4876 $4973

$5073 $5174 $5278

$5333 $5491

$5601

$5713

$5827

$5344

0

Q5 0 0 0 0

0 0

( 0 0

c 0

0

0

0 0

so so

o

so $0 $0

so $0

S $0 $O

$0 10

$0

$0

s0

$0

236 3133

1136 E I39 11396 11396 35

1396 11396

113 11336 11336

336

1396

11336

113

1135

11336

5$493416 $503264

35) 1 G 1

S531 1534083 $544771

$5665 S566780

1

$523 678 $60471

$612501 $525771

$G39286 55 Q52

$664073

S677 K4

$13873 S473537 $13873 $4834C-E

$13873 $49747 $3979 f50g 7-shy2

$1379 $52CI210 113873 $538321 227$5 -89 S3879 $541787

$79 K $-7579 $54236 $13273 577K $3873 S27532 113973 $53622 t3879 $11892 $3379 S624407

$13879 $337173

$3879 $650194 $757 $669775

$1042696 114443E

$18336301 $222704-

$2607162 1233016093 1

13346172 $7C- 32

$4 05746 $440256 $4742875

$-075824 $51402515

$5723072

$503759

$34c208 $6651884

$935- $825 M $764658$12M617 $10681 S10425

$-43 $1412669 1407 $123372E$715$=2 9

f39- $21843 11916875 $1735031 23 42 $1 $375$ 3427 $214202S t 53G $2636380 03 $9 $2 27 503 12544695 S2200320 $3037575 $2721482 $2405748 $3-3032352- 28970 12537706 S350348 $3045001 $2673393

$3698373 $2 183546 t757485 $3876979 $3 3711 $2867300

14045737 $3446247 12953242 $4205189 $356C8 3041099

$435846 $3657160 $311659 $4493545 $376678 $3186025

$711653 $279893 0 $0 12-93813 $11373201 $991546 $10381654

A-35

TABLE A-18 (Contd)- o-SOS TflBLE BEN T-2T TPBLE 7alculated)

zccc- an FiariJ Analysis for Energy Investments - Egypt EEA

Capita Colts BerEfit Parameters nterna lRate of Returr 7207

Acquisiticon 171753 Price of Oi $4000 lbL (yr 1) Transportation $0 Dil Escalat 20vear Disz FV of PV of BC

Construction $0 Rate Benefits Costs TV Ratio Iterconnection $0 Errgy Savrigs M-35 bblyear

-- -- ------- Fuel Use 0 bblyear $W373o $99546 $10381654 1147 TCTAL Cap) S717S53 2$1 773 $942968 SB2 49 - 5 975

4$7557396 $906011 $6E5884 834 Zonstruct Time 10 months 6 $-314236 $877493 15436743 72n

51354726 S855 18 1 $4 42S 545 G20Operating and Norcal ainterarce Costs 0$4604207 $S37489 $3766718 550

1$4289991 $3000 $345983 517 OeI-ating Cost $13879 year 48712 $4003306 $123281 $318G025

Operatin Lifetice 21 years r3 $177781 $817216 $2940565 460

14 $53637 $8730 $2719957 435 Vajcr Equiprrent RepairReplacement A $3327839 $80S754 $2521084 412

16 Z3 143506E $80212209 $2341277 392Replace Cost ($6300)period 18 $2824317 $794327 $2029990 356

Replace Period 20 years 200 $2558947 $787687 $1771260 325

A-36

E~zcrorci an4 ariaqrysr for EnEy Ivestrets -- -Gyrt = 3P

F c r C a s e o f F - r T 3 3 4 - j r 7 o i o s X_--

E 4 OR $251 FT -RC= $159P

ss=insectCA Escalation Rate cf 20

Save a - shyCaita eratirn Cost cf 01 Fue Used Fuel Ener) SavE AnnaI ash Floi Discounted Cash Flow () 9 iyE- cost Cost $Bb (2b1 Cost Epoundalv Energy Cost Current $ 4 8 10 12

l cuisiis 52452

Trans $2 Corstru_ o

ta 4 $-52 S $0 S2832 3$-22955 s28Sz3 ($128968) ($28928) (128)tc 52 C 10 34-2 $-324 S Z 24 ($125877 M$25991) (T2045) (S260981$ 0 $-55 0 s 34s S5431 $2110 s ($22707 ($123144) (3123301) (23450)$0 $ $2 0 $0 342 $f540 $2110s 40 11 S758) (242) 20704 S2 009S0 $T2-4 0 $0 34 $2110 25a0 (1273) (S17820 (32 3S759)S$0 2 $1G56 C $0 348 $763 $ 3 (1 1 3 7A s2 $13 0 f0 34 $E873 $2110 $379 (I0750 $12S ( S1 $14777)VC 2 $172- 0 $0 348 $-39 s 2 C2 $38ES (107797) h$1 (51)$130950 52110 $1757 C $0 342 $11 S2110 S400r ($104870) (t103526) (111004 ) (211401)$ c 120 $1793 C $0 348 $S28 522O S4123 31S9) (S10461 (S OS M) (1092) s210 I 512_ 348 $363 S2110 $42-5 (S39096) ($104491) ( S037($103 543)$0 S220 $sE5 0 ti shy32 t54 211 $435-0 (M251)

-- (S10261 ($22 ($07284)$0 $220 $1902 0 $1 343 $r2) 2110 $4510 (S93434) ($100821) 31$03G84) ($10512)14 $o S2110 $1940 0 $0 34 573 $2110 54243 ($50645) (S92114) (5)02340) (15062)5$0 52110 $1979bull 0 $0 343 S5683 I2110 $4778 (37am) ($9742q) ($10102) (S104085)6 $0 $2110 $201 0 so 342 S7C7 $21 $421517 50 ($5155) ($95 938) (ST2 90 ($103 1861$2110 0 )2059 348 $71 2 $$2o $ ms $22458) ($94462) ($S-30O ($102)o11 $ $2110 $210o 0 $0 34S

19 $7303 $2110 $-19- ($73789) ($92057) ($377T6 (01605$0 $2110 $2142 0 $0 348 $745M $2110 -5345 ($77150) ($91720) ($3814) ($100909)20 $0 $2110 S2185 0 $0

21 ($5438) $2110 $--29 0 348 $7605 $2 Ili $5495 ($74542) ($90446) (9916) ($100271)

$0 348 $7757 ($3328) $11085 ($69483) ($88068) ($9426a) (99 I2)

$124048 $42552 0 $0 7018 $130239 $166600 (36361)

A-37

ABSUPTIOS TABLE TABLE TABLE A-19 (Contd) IT--CCOTS TAL --C ed

and Fina-E P7aiysiz fc- Energy IrvestzErts -- ypt EE

aPita Ccsts Benrefit Parateters

Pquisitio 2948S Price cf Oil $1500 lbi (yr 1)Transortatior $0 Oil Escalat 20year

onstructio $0

rterconrectior $0 Enrgy Savns 348 b5year Fuel Use 0 thi

TOTAL (Cap) $123466

Construct Tirfe 10 months

Ozerating amNormal Mairterance Costs

Operatin Cost $2 110 year Oerating Lifetime 21 years

Major Equipment RepairReplaceuert

Replace Cost ($5438)Period Replace Period 2 years

Internal Rate of Return

Disc PV of PFJof Rate Benefits Costs

-=_

0 U -1c233 s 6660 2 $105270 $160683

4 $83543 $15031 6 $72307 $E2344

8 $61319 $149387 le S5272 914S33-

11 $49126 $14E566 12 $4912 $145034 3 $4 032 $144180

14 4144-- $143417 15 $38108 $142713

16 $35 9 7 $142068 18 $32342 $140933 2 $29303 $139971

-2 63

NIN

$32 ($55410)

($6943($8 037)

($80 8) ($343_68)

($C-33323(99 22)

($101156)

($102974) ($104604)

($106071) ($102591)

($110667)

Ratio

073

066

055 047

041 C36

034 03

30

28 027

0 25 023

021

A-38

For Case - -EL 7 7 14 - HELPN EXTLiIPH 0LECTOR PRV =552FT - PRIEC OL S2L Pssurin Oi Zscalaticr Rate cf 2C

SavEd a- c Cost of CII FUE1 Useer CUE Energy Eavn Arnual Ca ow sSZOLnte- Cash Flow ( NV) iYear Ct Ct Ipbl (P2-) Cost Ecsiv Ererry ZOst Currert $ 4 3 0 2 is-t i c r

_ _____ _

Traszr $C - LCrErZt cr 30

i tercorrezcr SO 21 53 $1 $1223 ($23378 $123pound73 ($23673) ($22673) ($123578)$ 72c Q0$24c $0 348 S7033 $2h1c i4S83 $2680 2124053) (12442) (1243)$21~ 0 0so 34a 17241 $2C $5121 3 (E -59)($112301) ($12012)4so So c V- Z $-co 348 7 $2110 $5275 -44- (1115471 ($15371 (lII3- $21 $25 ) $9 348 $7534 1I2110 5424 1038O) (111484) ($I-33 1I2930$0 $211 $2205 c $0 345 768 $2110 $-E574 ($105228) (7076G0) (105772) (037S7)

$0 2110 $-52 c $) 48 728 n04 SC Sshy$ $-bO $5723 C l00701 ($10408 SO55r ($ICS585)o $U S2110 P-3a7S0 $13 0 $0 348 Si110 $-525$2343 0 343 3430341 $2 (Si L- f E471 1$0$ 8) ($C4 203$) $_ -- $21 t$3050l 31($812) (S97231) (53673) ($10762

t t110 t c 3 2 M745)$0 203 ($94275) ($97066) (M23)S1 52110 $2438 Q $0 349 124B4 $2 $E374 (9g1 f$948 3)($2 144) 3233 ($07471)$110 $Z487 C $0 348 $2354 $2110 $r544 ($75894) ($88516) ($ 3 1 ($=120)$0 $2110 $25313 0 t0 342 $2227 T2110

1 $E717 ($74632) ( 849) ($901174) ($33855

$0 $20 $2557tbull I 0 034 $3 0034$34 S211 7) ($33314)S263 M$8178) (S32 2u)15 $0~ ($to50 $2110 $2333 0 $0 343 $3184 $210$7074 $ 473 ($2090S) ($83 315) ($3032)$0 $211 ( $2332 0 $01L 348 $ S237 $2110 $727 ($32444) ($73618) $34578) $83512)7 $0 72 10 $2746 0 $0 343 S555 $2110 S744E 3$5340 ($7S445) (323-7 (333293)1 $0 5210 $280 0 $0 348 $2745 $2110 $7636 ($54542) I 43W ($21447) (2B7156)$0o $2110 $225L 0 $0 349 $3341 $2110 S7831 ($50684) ($72422) ($80038) ($35163)2C $0 $2110 $2914 0 $0 348 $1023 $2110 $3029 ($46872) ($7WC561 (75726) ($85235)21 ($5439) $2110 $272 0 $0 346 $10342 ($3328) $13670 ($40634) ($676S2) ($76694) ($83818)

$124043 $42552 0 $0 7018 $17362 $163 00 $7052 A-39

TABLE A-20 (Contd) P-SJ 2DTPKE rZFT7-CGS72 TLAK (acutated)

Hom and Firaa ralvsis fcr Erergy Investments - Egypt EEAn 5S

Za-ital Costs Benefit Paraeters lnterrna Rate cf Return 046

Acquisition $129485 Price of Oil $22O0 1bb (yr 1)Transoortation $0 Di Escala 2Oyear Disc PV f PV of BCConstructior Rate Beniefits Costs Ratio Interconrnection $0 Errgy Savngs 348 bblyear - --- =_

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173252 $16E600 $705 104 (Cao)bull0TL1a8 $14 360 $10c ($ 320) 087

4 $115398 $155031 ($40634) 074Corstruct Time 0 -rnths A $36409 $152 34 ($55935) 063 8 $8A759 $14937 ($7623) 0Operatin and Normal Maintenanrce Costs CIA $70299 $14S933 ($76694) 048

11 $55502 $145 966 ($0464) 045Operating Cost $210 year 12 $51216 $145034 ($33818) 042Operating Lifetime 2years 13 $57376 $144188 ($85812) 040 14 $53924 $143417 ($89493 038Kajor Equipmert RepairReplacement $C811 142713 ($91901) 36 IS $47997 $142068 ($94071) 034Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $432- $140933 ($97810) 031

Replace Period 20 years 201 $39071 $139971 ($100899) 028

A-40

- End - Ar y= fcr ZErcy~gt Ef-tS - ~ Aq

TiE fl-2[

-or -ase

Assamin

c

Ui

Tf-L0EST 4 -

E-alation Rate f

TECTh- 211

20 25BFJ

Yec-

-_ ztr

fs

nrt-r--et

YEzEta u-rir z os

___=== shy = i2 ~~

z-_ 233

r $

of deg $i2

- Lse (Ebi)

ICoRue

Cost

Saved Ersery

Ecuiv

Va -cf Saved

Erery

5 S

n-a

-shyt

zas CIO

Curt S

t

Discounted Cash

4

Ficii 0 V)

0C

1 =

4

2

14 1 17 17

12 19 20 21

5-

s$

s 12

ampc

SO SC

$3 5 $0

(5 438)

2II0 2 110

S$210$o

12102IC

2110 SC$

U0 52 10

O QI0I $2110 521110 $2I07343

$2110 $2110 $2110 $2110

--23OI 1

Q27^S7SC

7

f_522 $2 3

S2147 $2SQ 53171

34 23 EE

13 534Vo$344)

$35o $3571 53342 53715

Ct

-1C

o

0 C

0

0 0

0 0

C 0

0

$0$034-=

s5

$50

s3$s4

$ $0

5$

so $0

$ $0

$O $0 s0 S0

348

343Z4

348

34E 342

342 342

34S 342 3474E 348 348

345 348 348 348

13574$ = $

$3

$3417sampo

$ 7E3

1 3-$337

euroscs $1 37

s3 $254 $1S t9 03

$121 1 S1242 $12674 $12 928

V2 31 -shy

11C

2110s519

2 12-0

1S 11 145

$2C

$2110

t2 110 $210

S2 110 $2110 $2110 ($3328)

33 2-72 ZZS ($13333 335B3 122S7 4 ($ E 22 25) ($13-2 3 (t12243)4 ($t1 ($pound 7) I$1692 $t5 S5 -

1 4 $7123 3$M234 ft 91 11745)--- $175)

$7307 31028 S C5148) ($106(1 7SC $5- t7495 ($737 (IiCc047 cs (-02843

783 ($cZ203) ($37185 (32353shy$7854 (1S4 6 1 533 (133122 (523371 $8133 ($7E754) (SS3 5) M335)) (ic21-h)

$S27 (7222) (32C900 ($2525 ($83134) $495 ($87 23 78 ) 382 5Wc ($5399)12 717 ($5 ($44-0 (7350I (583995)$3924 9 53 ($70 8771 (S7664) ($81605)V1144 (S$2471 ($67514) ($74016) (579509)

($45C (64324) ((715434) (S772) $33 5337301 ($5292) (5 2501 ($7 838)$7533 ($58428) ($8711C) ($74234) 0 )72 29303 ($5706) (S5 11a ($72767)1$0316 (24217) ($53124) (S5322) ($71425) $10564 (S19203) ($50676) ($6155) ($70199) $16256 ($11754) ($47129) ($59119) ($685141

$124043$42552 0 $0 7018 $217065 166500 50465

A-41

ELSTU0 TABLE TABLE A-21 (Contd)

PLE(-

Zcoo r Firatia iavsis fc- Energy Irvesterts shy Eypt EE1

C itz Zosts enefit Paraveters Irterraz Rate cf REturr 304

zao-isitior S12948E Traszrtzti $0

l rtier to Interzorrectio $0

Price of Oil 0 Escalat

Errgy Savnrgs

$250C bb (yr 20vear

342 bIyear

Disc Rate -

WV of Ienef-

W cf Fcsts N

BC Ratio

- --

TJT -------shy

1 486 FuEl Use 0 bblvear ^

-a-27 H-S$17 450

$SG0 s16K 580

$E 4S $14770

30

109

Construct Tive 10 crths 4^ 6

$144247 $2051

$I-o0 2344

$17S4) (4P 832)

02 073

Coeratirsect and Normal Mairtenance Costs

Operatir Cost $2110 year 0oeratin~ Lifetinie 21 years

8 0 1

2

$102198 $27874 3-877

$7E520 $$7720

$14937 $14S33 $145S3

$145034 V44122

$47123) ($ 119) ($64039)

($68514) $72458)

068 060 056 053 050

Mamr Equipmet ReoairReplacemert 14 1

$97405 $143417 1427

($76012) (179199)

047 045

REplace Cost Replace Period

($5438)period 20 years

6 18 20

$59996 $53304 $43839

$142068 $140 233 $139971

($82072) ($87030) ($91131)

042 C38 035

A-42

TRSLE 1-22

F- cf-- s 14- HELN Esumlr Oi Esampaton Rat2 cf

(TC2LEHr Trorp-

20 -P z-3 z-

1iazip Ycst

Ls-cr 113 -

0eratir Cost

Cott of oil W

Fte e c

-e el Ct

Savec Energy Ev

Va1-_ of -avef

ErErcy pnua

st a=n 7c DirountEj Ca_

E-rre-t $ 40 8 Flo (NPN) i

10 =

12

4 f

7

10

N-I-

1-

15

$ 7

is

19

I 21

C rutc

0t13oo

V 12 116 30E 11 $321

so No 13LR $- 110 z347 $ t-1 $33 2

S 8029 $3278 2li $344E

S0 f2I0 1315 - - 1 35

S1 r t2110 1373C-

S S212 $3 15 2 1 S281

$S)S2 5I3908 $ S4(38

so QAc2h18 41 SO $s2 $420 50 $2 11 $4 so $110 $4370

$5433) $2110 $4455

$124048 $42552

0

c 0

0

0

0

0

0 C 0 c

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

S

10 345 so 34

so 248 to 345

C 34S

so 3 $ 348 $0 348 $0 348o

$0 348 0 348

$ 345 so 3$6

so 348

$0 348 s A3 $0 348

SO 348

$0 348 $0 348

$0 7018

Q74C 12-

s649 - 1 s B3 110

in1 73 p311 S30 $2110 1127 f110

$11757 2110 $13 I-sI S2322_2ltU1510

2477 130

S 72H 11 S s- $1 2 1-110 s17o- s2

t3770 5-10 $14051 $2110 S302 S2 S14613 $21(

$1491 $ 1 $15203 $3110 $15513 ($332

$260478 $-SF600

A-43

53 ($85557 27Z- )S17

V5S59 10 1 3131 ($9-

12417 e -^-

$-E47 ( S) sI S t730)2

5 L22

1c357 4SW III

S1STs ($241)$1037 s173) 1 30 127 27)

Sc1L33 331 3X4

1 L 5 -267)

$is 7o7) 510L 3 ^41)

2 S2 8 U249

$3S10-2 $346S $18841 170-5

1$93 78

($(225 ($128038)

12 5 52 33- 1 12683 (1M 3102)

1105 EEG) 3$1 364 $3--3) $C 10-

($92 (534$ 3 (1S3225) (33734) ($o5s (s82733

$7 030) (79 0 11) 33 7041(IN

(647) $70511)($50334 (670 (1904) ($53154)

5( 714 (E 8 54) ($47743) 3567S2 $437) ($S33 3540411) fS5123

t070(37030) (4E7331

($33 827) - (S45E

($30 7K) ($44344) (26749) $41544)

($1202a

(31204741 (51347T

IS(117 C272 1( -_- ($SC) I ($627)

(132453) ($7 745)

( 2S ($712

(5344) $SE73S)

My AS)

($2 14) (5601171)

(556T

($5-5-E54)

($55162) (53210)

TABLE A-22 (Contd)

Ezrzic and Fir-a Analv=is Er=-ry Invest-eants - Egypt EEfl oI 1

Catal Costs Benefit Para-eters l-tera ate of Return 532

Pccuisitio $12943s Price c Cii Transportation $ Oi Escalat

Construct iorn $0 Interconnection $0 Enry Savrs

--- - --- el Use TOTAL LCap) $129485)

Construct Time 10 r-=nths

Operatin and Ncrmal nartErane Costs

Operatin g Cost $210 year Ooerating Lifetire 21 years

Major Equipment RevairReplacemert

Replace Cost ($5438)period Replace Period 20 years

$300 bb (yr 1) 2 Cvear

34E bblyear 0 tblyear

Dic PV cf Rate Eerefits

=-- shy == 0 -260478

2 $210541

4 $172037 6 $144614

8 122 S38 10 $105449 11 $93 253

i2 $91824 13 $86064

14 S00885 15 $76217

16 S71995 18 $64685 20 $58607

PV cfof Costs

$166600

$160680 $15H 02 SE2344

$149337 $146993 $145966

$145034 $144188

$143417 $142713

$142068 $140933 $139971

wgV

$93878

$49860 $17065 ($7730)

(326749) ($41544) (347713) ($53 tn0) ($S3 124)

($62531) ($6649G) ($70073) ($76249) ($81364)

Ratio _

15S 13 1 095 82

C72 067 063 060

C56 053

051 04G 042

A-44

Ecnio af rarcia Ay5s fr Enerzy rvestr-et=- E__y EE- t

TABLE A-23

D 7E4--r Case ofF- - H8LW TEXT-PP C LcTORvR- - p n-OIL 35 _) 9ssu=- Oil Escalation Rate cf 20

spvedCa4t Csratr Zost cf Oi Fuel Used Fel Erergy Vi~

3aved Arral Ca-s 7 2iscurnt (-ir- Flo (NTV) 8 iYear Ec SBbX (Ebi) Cost Eniv Enercy ost Crr $ 4 10 12

1 Trarsort $ bull Ccrstr_-ticy $

1 Ir -e2or tic - $0r

Ttal T4- $352 $300 0 $0 58 $2030 f223 2780) 3$227($1802) (S27803) ($37308)Ss s210 12570 0 so 348 S2424 12 10 10314 $7S3 ($(S2 ) (1342 o 59)

3$ 123 $3541 0 $0 348 $12672 2 11 105S2 022T) (103O023) ($103703 ($10179)4 2 $2 0 $3714 c SO 349 2 $2110 8 ($18 -1 7 ( 0 7 (0 410

S3783 0 to$2110 348 $13 184 $2110 111074 ($53044) (332477) ($34013 ($3-7443)E 10 1-110 S3364 0 $i 345 S3448 $2s SI335 $73716 (1847z (8900)T $21 $342 0 $0 348 $13717 1I10 11607 (571 553) _77447 C$S04-2 ($-3 123)

0 -1( 241 ( 77 ($74 ($77155)so 348 4 $s $7 s$o2110 348 11427$311I0~Snl $8 C $0 $2110 Ll 1Z3) 12944) 1S5 372844)

1 82 20 $L (SIL0 348 S14556 t2 $1244 ($43394) ($57718 (5S33731 ( 1 211r 5428-4 0 $0 343 $4847 S21110 $1277 2 s($7 3) 364254) S $0o 348 1511413 1 $4439 $S I o 13031 - ($ 2 ) ($46228) ( 853834)($0 507)110 f- $0 348 1 447 12 110 $13337 ($18432) ($4C32) ($43644) ($57084)14 $0 $2110 $4528 0 50 348 $E75E t 112 S4 (S102 (394) (4582 (2 9S75 1$10 W4 S 343 16 07 $2110 $139s] ($2234) ($31IG) ($4201f5 ($L I100

16 211SC $24 $4711 0 S 348 $18322 $211 1 14_ 15 7 (S2S 531 ($38-96] ($A 4917 S $2110 $4805 0 $0 348 5721 12 I10 14611 $13437 (22394) (35416) 34S107)18 $C $2110 $4301 0 $0 243 $1-5 $2110 $i345 $21170 (18354) ($32460) ($930)19 $ $20 $4993 $0 343 $17336 52110 $15286 $28715 ($14 529) ($209710) ($4943)20 $0 $2110 $5099 0 $0 348 T17744 $2110 $15634 $36136 ($10 207) ($27 154 ($40 127)21I($5438) $2110 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 ($3328) $1427 $45915 ($30) ($23969) ($3790)

$124048 $4255 0 $0 7018 303891 $166 amp0 137291

A-45

TABLE A-23 (Contd) PSELTIONS TWPLE H-77-C3T-3 TA-2L Eated)

Econooi and Firnani aIvs4s fe- Ener y Ivestcents - Eypt EE 03i32

Capital Csts Berefit Paraeter- Itera Rate c RetLr- 739

Aqisiti-503S S4ES Pice c ii bb (yr 1)TrasScrtation $0 01 ESalat W0year DiEc PV of P of BC

Corstructior $0 Rate Beneits Costs WPV Ratio rterconrection $0 Enray Savwgs 343 bblyear -

Fuel Use 0 blyear 02E1 S 600 II7721 82TOTAL Cap) $1Z48C Z $1683 $54 350 53

4 $20194S I5E3 $45715 i2CcrstrUct Time 10 mrths E1 716 $152344 $16372 11

8 $143078 $14337 ($S309) 096Operatirpound and Norma Ma~ntenarce Costs 10 $123024 $14E933 (23969) 084

11 $114628 $145956 ($31 33 079Oerating Cost $2 110 year 2 $107128 $145034 ($37906) 074Operating Lifetime 2 years 13 $101408 $144182 (343780) 070

14 $34I26 $143417 (U9050) 066Major Ecuipment RecairReplacemernt $S30 $142_713 ($53793) 062

1S 0584 ($53074) 059$1420O8Salvage Value ($5438)period 18 $75465 $14C 33 ($55468) 054Replace Period 20 years 20 $68375 $139571 ($715) 049

A-46

Ecor-r~c a Fi-ra- aivss VeSt=rts EE2fC- -ErV - E --t

TAFLE A-24

Case cf77-Lf TES 4 - HEWA XTILE1P (M CT P $2zS - PRE-F OIL 640EBLh ssuming Oil Escalation Rate f 20

saved VaiLe Ofonita Doeratir Lcst of Oil Fue Used Fuel Erery -d pYert Ca_ 10 Discourtd Cash Flow (PI 0- i =Cost $1Ebl (2l) Cost Eerv Ztt Crrert 1 4 6L 10 12

I Transmrt onstrLZt ior 4

tr-cnnEc icn $ Tcta f2945 132 $4000j 0 $0$40 SO 58 2 S 33z Is1 5 ) 327515$0=8 34S7 $15 $2- 2 (12728

31 $4060 1 r 0 342 $2C 3 8 1034)IS ($152V (1528) f(E72)14 0 348 49 S20 S-372 SI04-1 (5) 517 (110303) (-058514$ 2 I W A S t o4 3 4 8 $ 4 7 shy 3 12 2 ( S 9 ( SH G ES ) ($7 9 0) ( UT 7 8 4 5 3 $ 2 1432bull 34a S 057 $241 C3 (

$0 ($36142) (M6742) (3614)$0 $2 110 $446 0 $0 348 $159 $22 $17m ($7122) ($77119) 372707) U82191)7$ 4 $0 348 S5751_5 21101if) E5 5)503) $55569) ($72049) ($75218)0$ 4c5sg5 $0 348 $5930 510 $13 0 496) ($E 470) ($54327) ($62033)S so 12 4687 $0 348 $309 21Sc 14 92 (139580) 5079 (15833) 563204)10 $C Uio $4760 0

$0 348 $Ipoundpound36 5 240 -25- (129375) (4E53) (- 42 (37966)$0 12112 1487pound 0 $0 348 $11953 $20

2 S12353 SI9337 (533650) 34S414) ( 5318)0 $2110 $4373 0 s0 348 $1730L 2 1c3 5 Q 15 ($9465) (1 2132) ($41027) (34313)S0 12110 $ 0 $0 348 V14i

$21 $244 3-5905) (35134 344823)$0 $2110 $574 0 $0 34E $112007 $Z19 $5597 $3791 (1114) ($-530 ($41180)o $2110 $275 1 $0 342 $18357 $21 $-257 S19 7916 3$14579) 32724T) ($3754)$2110 $$5393 0 c$0 349 $12734 17

$2110 $Ic24 $28410 MKS) (Q-3269 (34816)$ $2110 $s191 0 6

s0 348 1$3 0o $2110 S162 $37486 (4376) (195E) ($32043)$S 5210 $sa01 0 s0 348 $19431 1211 17331 $43409 $321 ($161301 (12951)11 $0 $-I0 $5713 0 $0 348 1181 $2i10 S7771 SES182 $4768 ($2934) (327 M0I20 $0 $2110 $5827 0 t0 348 $20279 $2110 $16169 $E3805 8378 ($9963) ($25031)21 ($5438) $2110 $5944 0 $0 348 $20 684 ($3328) $24012 $74764 $14 30 (36394) ($n-60L

$124048 $4252 0 $0 7018 $347304 $166600 $180704

A-47

g3EL-iD~- ASSIUPTIDXF LETABSE TABLE A-24 (Contd) - ---C-NCE TFamp mC utCalculated)

zczi a- Farcial alvs- for Erergy IwEstments - Egypt EEA 1 8

CaPital r~csts Perofit Para Eter- Irntr-na Rate of Peturr 932

Acouisition $ E4 Price of Cil TransroortaEtio $G 0i Escalat Construct $

rterrertior $0 Erry Savrs Fuel Use

TOTA Cao) $1_h486

Construct Time 10 eorxths

eratir_ and Norzal Ma-rtenance Costs

Oceratim Cost $2110 year Operati_ LifEtime 21 years

Major Ecaiment RevarReolacert

Replace Cost (5543e)period Replace Period 20 years

$4000 bb (r 1) 20year

348 bbyear 0 bblyear

DisC PV of Rate Perefits

- = 0 $347 304 2 $22720

4 t23C 73 E $19288

$13517 10 4C 9 -- - - $31004

12 12243-2 13 $114751

14 $107847 15 $101622

16 $KS993 18 S84 246 20 $78143

V of Costs

$16 6O $162560

5 63 $1E2344

$43337 $1429c3 $14 9-5

$14E034

$144188

$14347 $142713

$142068 1140933 113971

N71)

$180704 $120040

$74764 $407

$14 13 ($r334)

($14 952)

($22602) ($29437)

(S35570) ($410V30)

(45075) ($54687)

($61828)

BC Ratio

208 175

48 27

109 096 090

084

080

075 071

368 061 056

A-48

Ecra acia a fc Ernerv ivEs=-t -- Eyt E~q IC36

TfPLE A-25

cr Case of-- 7ST 4 - HL4 7EX-vTDUq -T R E $ZvCF 7 P- U 1shygssu-in_ Oi Es~alatior Rate of 20

Saved Value ofDaitalfleratir Cost of Dil -Fel Used Fuel ESrry 5avf Annual as( Fic Discourted Cash Flow (MKV) 8 iYear Cost $IBb (E1 Cost Ecriv -Ercy Cot Currert S 4 8 10 12

I 712 I Trersp $0

ITotal 0712 $311 $1500 0 $0 58 $370 $111022 1t01E2 52) 1103) $ n3)(1h10153) $8 $5302C $0 348 $5324 $186G 458 CLa28 (S10SI) ($07003 (107O5)2 $15In $ 0 $0 348 $543 $18s2 S25s5 0522) ($ 40$ 2 $-7834) ($1040E3 ( 7 ($104 )4 $I62 $12$0 bullS266 $1524M$0 0 $0 34842 $5540

3 $550 S1866-C81C $2674 ($1 ($0 ($37031) 3 $10 $3784 ($32 197)78) ($10$D(3S718) Is0 603(M32204)

6 CS56 0 $0 348 S762 $862 $3857 ($c3828) ($5544) ($22223) ($39992)$052 $I82 c $0 43 $872 $186E $4013 $33 67) ($3301) ($94033 $94353)S$0 $C866 1723 C $0 348 15922 $866 $4130 (U8751d) (390605) ($1914) ($3091)2 $3 $s $1757 so e 33

s 0 343 Stamp 1866 $4256 ($4413) ($82310) ($23921) (131374)$0 $17 22 51732 00 $ 3 2- 1$5 2 522 11866 $4372 3 1 S C 1 ($311 ($82122) ($737C7 ($83738)1 223E$ $ 22 so 348 $82 $866 $4407 ($78702) ($40391 ($25 3431 ($83 3n0)12 $0 $1826 13Ef 0 $0 348 $S490 S1866 $4624 ($7E 29) ($80-5) ($ 4722) ($87020)s0 $1 8 $11302 0 $0 348 $2620 $BE $4754 ($714 $0

323 ($80168) ($33207) ($85800)$1866 $1940 0 so 348 $s753 $182 $4837 ($23334) ($72371) $2722 ($84630)15 s0 $1852 $7 ) $0 348 $8B3 $BE6 $5022 ($22494) ($7L662) ($8146M] ($33653)16 $0 $166 $2019 C $0 348 $702 $1862 (152 ($75035)s $E30) ($73234) ($2 710)17 $1 pound186 $203 $0 348 $7126 $1826 $523y ($50O330) ($73488) ($73081) ($S8845)12 i$ $626 $2100 0 348 $7309 $1866 1544 ($58005) ($72017) (77 0041 ($81053)$0 S866 21421 0 $0 348 f7 455 $186620

$5589 ($ 246) ($70618) ($759M) ($30326)$0 $1866 $2185 u $0 348 $7605 $1866 $5733 (152523) ($63288) ($75060) ($73660)21 ($4650) $1856 $2229 0 $0 348 $7757 ($2784) $10541 ($47712) ($67027) ($73494) ($78567)

$106062 $37631 0 $0 7 018 $130233 $143693 ($13454)

A-49

----

TABLE A-25 (Contd) rzzPTI2CNS 7PBLE EE ~~~TnD Calculated)

-cocc and Fir4anci= Araisis fc ErErgy InvestEerts - Ecypt EEA raI

capital CStE Perefit Parayeters terna Rate of Return -108

czuisiion ie o 0 $I2X yr 1I Tra-spcrtatior $0 2 Zs~t 2 lyear Dis WVof PV of BCConstructior tate

Benefits Costs NIV Ratiointercorrectior $0 Enry Savrgs 343 bblyear =

Fuel Use 0 bblyear C $130239 $143E03 ($13454) 091trp) CTP $10Z S 270 $138405 ($3375 076 4 S 548 $134260 ($47712) 064ConAstruct Time 1S CnTh5 5 $72307 130 76 ($55669) C55 8 s6319 $122 34G ($67027) 048CoeratrE and -crma Maintenarce Costs 0 ($73494) 042

OperatingCost $18- year 1 $49126 $125306 ($761711 03912 $45912 124479 3735-7 037Operatirg Lifetime 21 years 13 $43032 $123728 $8169L) 035 14 $40443 $12 043 $82601) 033Major Equipment RepairReplacemert I$IIE $38108 4419 ($84310) 031$3810

16 $35997 $121847 ($58M) 030Replace Cost ($4650)period 18 $323A2 $120841 ($88499) 027Relace Period 20 years 20 $Q9303 $119988 ($90685) 024

A-50

and Finaie rr_ fir Energ- ivestrents -- Eyt E2 1IMV5

TAPLE P-26

For Case cfFlD TEST 14 - HELWAANXT1LEIP (PRECTO p ZE$221SFT - P UZCF GIL $2VBE Assuraing Gii Escalation Rate of 20

Saved Val e of oita eraplusmn ir Ccst of Cil uee Lsed Fuel Energy 5ave Irr ca Zas F1ow Disconted Cash Flc (NPIV)E iYear- Cos C-st Bo (E 1) Cost Ecuiv En=Ergy Cost ZLrrert $ 4 8 0 12n

ura-z t 7 bull~r ti- $

rterco-retIcr $ITcta $20 0 $O 3 $1160 $111023 15S ) C$1C3853) (5103353) ($I0335 ($103 53)22 5 $2140 C $0 348 $703 $655 233 ($10Q8311 ($105017 (W05106) ($105Igl)S$ $EEG $2081 0 50 7 $537Z ($$33E41 24 1 183 (1040 (1 663 ($ 35)$EE863 $2-22 0 so 342

0 $733G 18E s527 (P9454) ($03 (56- ( 7)- $QLES( 033 so 343 $7S=34 S 2U- $G 568 ($3110) ()161) ($2645) ($93374)$S E 202C0 $0

7 348 $76E934 $1365 $5818 (S527) ($3730) ($83CK) ($90073V0 $1 s 5 f2252 0 0 343 5738 I6

- V5972 (80 377) (1413) ($5E ) ($37 047)_336 $2297 C $0 34S $75 s - shys- ~ (-1MO M r2~ ~ $ g0~ - J - 322$ ($84275)to S186b $2343 0 s0 343 $a10$ = (300 S186 5$233 (71 355 (7164) ($752 ($1735)to 34S 21313 t566 Z54582) (73 (17S846) 3$73409)r T-357)

0 415-3 $1$238 0 $0 343 $13484 $H6 18S (1 31) ($70 871) ($7424) ($77278)--ES $2437 C s0 348 $2654 S1855 $$73 (t 73$

41) ($70 1 (7) ($75 326)$1B3s $2536 0 s0 14

348 S227 $1865 $S761 ($53594) ($E519S) (5S367 (S73539) 5

t 61656 $2587 c s0 342 $004 Si856 $7133 1$4307) ($62571) i53201 (S1904)51 $125 $2539 0 $0 348 $ 184 M866 $7318 f45081) ($50080) (65703) (570406)i5 $ 861855 $232 0 $0 S13 $7 $5 $751 (34916) ($57715) (63S07) $559036)17 tO 51833 52746 tO 343 $55 51S66 $7539 ($5311 ($55471) ($32234) ($67732)is - s866 $2800 0 $0 34 5 74S S 865 $7880 ($-2766 f534I) ($50675) (3634)13 s0 $18665 $2856 0 $0 348 $S994 $1866 $8075 (28 73) ($513M) (M-3223 ($5 584)20 t0 $ass $n 14 0 so 348 $10 13 $1866 $5273 (424253) (342404) ($57870) ($6462A)21 ($465O $1865 52972 0 $0 348 $10342 (32784) 63126 (f18 863) ($46587) ($55919) (63263)

$10G062 $37631 0 s0 7018 S173 2 $143693 29959

A-51

gSv ONSTBLTABLE TALEASSUPTIOS A-26 (Contd) TT-r-TS TA-- alculated)

Econozc ar Firacia Araly-is for Energy Irvestrerts -- Egypt E_ I-

LaoitaI CoSts Benefit Parx-Eters Iterra Rate c-Return 216

Acquisition $110712 Price of 1 $2000 bb (yr 1)Trarspcrtatio $O Oil Escala 20year DiE Pcf PV of BIC

Corstrutior $0 Rate Benefits Costs NV Ratio iterconneztio $0 Enrgy Savrgs 348 bblyear _= -_--

Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0 $173 G52 $143693 $2 M 121TOTAL Ca) $712 N $14c 360 $13405 $1955 101

4 $11Z338 $134260 ($18863) O8GConstruct Time 10 tronths 6 $96409 $130976 ($34567) 074

8 $81759 $12346 ($46587) 064Operatinz and Norrva Maintenance Costs 10 $70299 $126216 (S55919) 056 A-1 $6S502 125 30f Ui59 64) 05Operatin Cost $866 year

shy

2 $61216 $124479 ($63263) 049 Oerating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $123723 ($65352) 046

14 $5-7924 $123043 ($9120) 044Major Equipment RepairReplacement 15 $50811 $12419 ($71608) 042

16 $47927 $121847 ($73 851) 039Replace Cost ($4G50)perioQ 18 $43123 $120841 ($77718) 036Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $119988 ($80 917) 033

A-52

conc34 an Firnancial Qralvss fcr Ener~y i-veEtvnts -- Eypt EE

TMtSLE 4-27

Fc0 2ase TfiEf - 1ZLN TEXTILEI (WZC PR P3rS22TEST 44 SETOR C7 a- $25IEDU Asi rLz Oil Escalation Rate of Z0

SavBr Vaue f1ta Ccost of Oi Fue Use Yuel[eraing Energy SZve- rnual Cas 71co ritv ed Cash Flow (NPV ) i = -- CostYear ost $1 (Bbl C-st L c r ny Cost C-rre~t 1 4 1r IN0

t1i3iticr tSU712

7rarns~ort $

Ccrtructcr It o $oerconnec

aS 71 S00 0 to 53 1450 1 023 (103 -73 5-3c$3573) ($109573) ($103-73)sgE t C 0 $0 348 S234 S7 CC7 3SZE 1C-084 (3103202) ($103316)$0 $as 2L0 $-r

0 s0 343 $ 51 $1ms5s n7515261) $9924) ($97264) (975M30 $0 348 Ic233 $786-H s364 (tc7E ($91723 (SW344)So286 027 $0 -48 $47 $I 17f51 5E so $ G s S27 EC 0

18 ($3552) ($37545)0 to 348 $q606 $1 86 $Z740 8257 t85 15 C 03 $76 -53 ($817E6) $83154)ss~ g $ 5 7 g2 ( 7 a $2215 $50 348 $9738 $6 $7 2 ($7058) 726 (377287) (79135)Sc S5 K6 372 0 $0 348 Sg934 S6 $2 $64322 ($70 1) 37311 3754599 $0 38 S A 52 s (923371 s1 S7237) ($72036)IC $r t85 12955 0 $0 343 $10377 865 $352 ($-22) (6751 (55615) ($59013)11 so 55 5 247 -0 s0 348 $C61 SlE6 $873S ($493) (t-7) ($-2246) ($55205$ $185 5$ $1510 SO 348 $087 $2811 (L4$54) ($53864) $53108) ($36321O 518) $317 0 $012 348 S1I034 $66 $9168 ($24858) (min22 3 56187) (S61279)14 s$ $S-76 52234 0 $0 348 $11254 $1866 $2382 1$2220) (34S771) (353468) ($59127)E $C $1685 $39 0 $0 -48 $114-9 $666 $3613 3U2668)($43498) ($50936) ($5-7160)so$ $866 $3365 0 so 348 S- 70 $86 13843 2$03)-($40395) ($48560) ($-m3S)

17 so 11862 $432 0 so 348 11-43 $1866 $10077 12 822) (37454 (34G387) (5 718)2 to T866 $350 0 $0 348 $12182 $866 $1016 ($7526) ($34666) ($44345) ($2216)V9$0 $1866 $257 0 $0 348 $12426 $156 $105EC ($2314) ($2023) ($42447) ($50842)2V $3 $1866 53642 0 s0 348 $12674 $1856 S0803 $2816 ($ 519) ($40673) ($49588)21 (54650) $1866 $3715 0 s0 346 $12926 ($2784) $15712 $9987 ($26148) ($33344) ($47M95)

$105062 $37631 0 s0 7018 $217065 S143693 $73372

A-53

PSSU Ns TABLE TABLE A-27 (Contd) FE-E=IT- 2ST3 TA2LE Cal d

Ecortomiz arnc a AIaEsis fc- Enery Irvestmerts - Egypt EE- iC1365

Capital Costs Perefit Parameters lnterral Rate c Return 491

Acquisitic $0712 Price of Oil Trarnsportat $C Oil Escalat Construction $0

Interconrectior $0 Enrny Savngs Fuel Use

TOTlL Cap $0 72

Construct Tiie 10 Moths

Operatinz and Norma Maintenance Cost5

Ooerating Cost $866 year Operating Lifetime 21years

Major Equipnent RepairReplacement

Replace Cost ($4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$2500 bbl ( r 20year

348 bblyear

0 bblyear

1)

A-54

Disc Rate -shy

0 -w

4 6

8 0

11 n

3

14 15

16 18 20

PV zPV EenefitS

$217CS5 $75450

$144247 $$0C $102193 $87374

$81877 $76E20

$71720

$S7405 $63514

19996 $53904 $4883

cf Costs

$143623 $132405

$134260 27

$128346 $2z218

$125306 $124472

$123728

$043 $122412

$121847 S120841 $119988

NPV

$733272 $37045

$2987 ($101465)

($26148) ($38344)

($43429)($47259)

($52008)

($55639) ($532905) ($61251) ($68938) ($71149)

BC Ratio

151 27

107 092

080 070

065 061

058

055 052

049 045 041

E ri- Fra Fa-s fc- Erergy -vetrerts - Egypt EA

TAKLE P-28

o- Case lfF- TEST 4 - HELWATEXTILEIPH (CELECTOR Assuming01l E-calatic Rate c 2C

PRCZ-22I _- 01vS

YeF-ita

Cost 0=erair

Cost st of 0j

IB Fuel Used

(bLI) Fuel Cost

Energy Eciv

Savee ErCr~y

rrua Lost

Eas FIcA Current $

Discountd Cash 4 8

Floh (NPV) 10

i 12

k cuisiicr r7-2 1 Transc-rt $ I Costrut or $3

cta $272 2 S COo

Se $ESE 120 so $ SSr

s3~ zs384cSO $0 $15 S47

6 $3 t135 $--- 2 7S882 53375 a $0 $258 $344E

5 S18 zI^ to $ -ES s3F

1$ ss sss~s S- $181H $3730 SO $1868 $3805

4 $ $35 E i V $8-8 $3258 E 50 $8EE $4038 17 $0 s B S4s SO $0 S8EE $4201

13 tS $18 $428 5 20 $0 $86 $4370 21 ($4650) $1868 $4458

$105 02 $37631

0

I

0

0

0

0 IC

0 0 0 o0 0 0

0 v

0

$0 Es $174

742 t-8c4c SO$0 343 $1

348 51107 $0 348 $11301 $0 348 $1527 SO 342 7m7 so 343 $13 $1 348 S2 32 $C 348 $12477

38V)2 $0 342 $ 345 t3240

$C 348 $ z -to 348 775 so 348 $1405 SO 348 $14 332 $0 343 $14CM $0 348 $14911

$0 348 $KS203 $0 348 $15513

$0 7018 $260478

A-55

III3-3C3

$E- Iass

$1866

$1856 S866 5 865 5185S $3s6

56 65

Sa36

518j$E $8 $866 $ 86 $155

$862 ($2784)

$143633

10I08 23

S7322 2 9

s $3435

$3661

$9S3 s u $03-

$511

$6 $11 $11374

187^ $ 3 $1822 $12 48

273 S13045

$13343 $18297

$118785

3

($1Th22-

(Pc8751

E3 -73

(ME223 (3) 5) ($

4 2231

337784

30447) ($23227) $V23)

3 1 (1 2M)

- IS6 $7t $24453

$30466 $L M3E

(1l123

cs 32443)$22

1

72 611

(SE8 322) () 4741 1154 372)

($4258)

3544E35) ($ 76 S (5325)

3071) ($28E3)

0751 (119 43s

E9 3 ($12725)

($3634) ($5708)

(s0--3) ($33864)5552 $83498

(745001 (S53917) ME-720)

($ES584

($54284)

(S530197) 3413 3542-S7h

(S30- ) (S3170) (332-) ($3 4 23M)

$25870)

($23433) ($20 705)

((e02203)

(S1014411 ($94270)

-855772 7S

(727v1 (37124) ($6S 64) (M62456)

(3E2301

($5133) (33 (02)

ME48-5 ($14314 S41688)

33854) (-7 ($101)

(345m21 (32655)

TABLE A-28 (Contd) S TpLE - Th-CCSTS TPAELE (Calclated)

Ezo ndard Firarla yss fzr Erergy Investrzents -- Egypt M 01I 185

Capita Ccsts BerEfit Paraeters lkterrz ate of Rturr 7351

A-uisit in Trarr~rtaticr Cortro

$117-12 t0

$0

P-ice o Cii Escala

$3000 Ibb (yr 20year

1) Disz ta

V of

Benefits PV of

Costs 1PV BC

Ratio -rnterconretion $( Errzy Savwes 348 bblyear -------

TCTAL (Cap $10 712 Fuel Use 0 bblyear 0

2 $26r-475 2l154C

$143623 $132405

euro16785 $72135

81 152

Corstruct Timne 10 msonth-4 6

173097 $144614

$24260 $131 976

$33836 $13633

12 110

Dperating an Normal Maintenarce Costs 8

0

$122633 $108449 $98253

$12346 $126218 $125 305

(35708) ($32769) ($27053)

096 084 078

Operating Cost

Operating Lifetime $865 year

21 years 1 13

$9824 $5064

$12479 $123728

332E5 ($37664)

074 070

Major Equipment RepaiReplacemeet 14 15

$80985 $7217

$123043 S122419

(42158) ($46202)

065 062

Replace Cost Replace Period

($4650)period

20 years

1 S 20

$719T $64655 $58607

$121847 $120841

$119988

($49852) (356157) (361381)

059 054

049

A-56

Taiaccno arc navsl- fCr erv InVES Et S_ 5E

TWILE A-29

For Case of --T TEST - uMwANTEXTIlEIPP 1Crv=TO PR2E -rR- a PAssuz 0 Escalation Rate of 20

Save Value f Ozeratir iliFuel Usedaoita Cost cf Fuel Energy Saej Annual ash 73w Dis-unted Cash Flow ( ) i = Cst st $1bl (btI) cost Ecuiv Enerzy zt --rrert 4

- Trarsoco-t SC)

I rsterucrneztion 50

I Tc- Z $3500 0 $203 (T01132 (50-932(9933-3) ($IC-9931(12S933S S46SE 170 0 $C 34 $2 424 s1856 $_ssS99217 ($32841) ( 39E (M567)5 52-25 $3541 0 $0 348 52572 $1855 1 bull 23 (58953 ($0457 ($g032)

5-5E0 53714 -7 0 So 10 731)0 g 48 174 ) $ 15 (S33 030)343 $12 S6G 4 7 O t1 Es SBs $3729 0 $1 348 $1284 $865 $318 363344) ($72254) (374425) (37637

S S1E $In3964 0 $0 7

348 $13448 1866 V1152 (IZ3825) M4972) ($67234) (315)53942 0 $V 348 $13717 $1866 (550459 ($54544)5Y1-1 (1-7504) ($6332)

$0 855 $$4020 0 t0 348 t13991 18665 shy12 - ($424V (s 422) ($54322 (tS72273 s aE- $41 0 $0 348 $14271 t856 $19405 S2J81 43728) ($4535) ($2817)10 $0 $1855 $4123 C s0

11 348 $14556 T556 $126 0 ($23265) ($37379 3$433 $4Z2 4

5 $425 $0 348l $0 S 1856 $4352 0 SO 348

0 s0 $14847 $1862 $31 (514495) ($313E5) ($32149) (5440511 $15144 $1866 12272 f(15870) (S25672) (1334 ) ( 244)13 855 $0 $54439 0 348 t5447 t855 $1253 $213 M278) ($2967) (33758)

14 $0 $SE5 $4S23 0 $0 34s 1135-0 955$1Z75C 518s $11C (t15171) ($255144) (533 -5)15 $0 $1855 $4513 0 $0 348 14 (110325)16 to f86 1471

$1071 S856 5131I8 353 (2434 (3066Z 0 $0 348 $1633 11365 S14527 $27224 (5575) ($1725) ($29014)7 $0 t1855 $4805 0 $0 348 $16721 351551865 $14855 (3419) (514693) ($25591)is $0 $1866 $4C1 0

9 $0 348 $17055 $ISG5 15 183 $42353 $2626 ($16 (122791

$0 1855 4999 0 so 348 S173 1B6 515530 550518 $6572 ($894) (521359)2 $0 $1866 1509 0 s0 348 $17744 $1866 t 5878 $58155 $102551 ($6298) ($19516)21 ($4550) $186 $5201 0 $0 348 $18099 (32784) $2883 $67686 $14732 ($3 194) ($17351)

$106052 $37531 0 $0 7018 $303831 $143693 $16018

A-57

TABLE A-29 (Contd) ate

Ecoci ar Pirarzia Evsi fcr ErEr t Eypt EA

3ta CGst= Denefit ParamLeters Interra ate cnf Returt 961

ccisition $I10712 Price of Cil S3502 1b (yr 1) SC

ats rttion $0 Oil Eszalat poundC)year rli P cf FV of Rate Saroaf s Coets N Ratio

Corstruct ion so irtErzonneticn $0 Errgy Savrgs 345 bblyear shy

0 $2^3 89 S143693 $16098 211uLai Use C ttVear 2 $24C30 t 145 507 -2-25 177

TDT CaP) $1SC712 4 $20945 $1342K0 $67686 150 S $-53716 $30975 37740 139

Construct Time 10 rorths 8 $143078 $128346 $14732 111

10 S12024 ($3124) 097 Doerating and Norma Mairtenane Costs 1 1468 $ 3C6 ($10678) 091

-- - ----- 1 $114628 S 3CS09

Operatir Cost $1856 year $1107128 $124479 (17351) 086

13 $13J408 $12723 ($230) 081 Operating Lifetime 21 years

14 $94366 $23043 ($28677) 077

5 $23920 $122419 ($33499) 073 Major Equipeent RepairRepla-ement

15 $23934 $121847 ($37853) 069 3 $75465 $120841 ($45376) 062

Replace Cost ($4650)period 20 $SE375 $112938 ($51614) 057

Replace Period 20 years A-58

Ec- ic and Frana Ara~y- f- Erry Irve=tert5 - Evpt -EEA

TAKE A-30

c Ca__ cf-l_ TrST 4 - HLW TEXTLEiP (Z2LETaP $2S FT shy E OF0i $40B) 9ssuMir Oil Escalation Rate f 20

save alue of-azita eratirg Cost c Oil Fu Ue Fuel Erry --ave Annual Cas DiscountedYEar 0 gas Flow (PV) i =st II) Cost Ezv Energy Cost Curre t $ 4 8 IC0

1 Pcq-isit - l1 02 Transzrt $0

$31 $4000 0 $C 52 0 S

21n232232 757-3) 07 3 f C 27 3 0703 f0373)sc sz-s $4080 a S4105 1 855 8 V7134 ($774532) M751Ss 542S I- 0 Sbullcss ~ S42-4f 0 345 4 82cs $14 7172 1-G1- 1SZ3 18$14772 9 7 W- 02)ssamp $12 7 M( 465) 27 ($87134-I (2377 ($762 577365 ($7344$73-2

32 0 $ $3 057

) fD 3$7-42)

$4_ $BSE 12i Z (57-253 1 SSS325--)(570 O0E) ($791C SSS6 $4505 E 33 S)0 V 345 $15676 $1566 $13Bic1556 6261$0 $5 25S 4 47 (2172) M35400)345 $sfsC $8s6 $4687 0 348

8 2 $27-T 42 (449241 ( 33511)T1309 $866 S 14443$2 2- 522) ( 186) ($43 1771 $0 8SG S4780 0 374S S2636V BEE866 $4876 S0

smsG V14770 ($374E 12EM)3 f$3 293 ($37K 50 3452 f3s8 $1266 13--ZC Il- S5$7 05 $$0S 32 4 7 2193) ($3850)$0 $1566 $4372 0 $-

S 07 -- (2 5B2 273)SC 343 $7302 T1866S0 $1866 $156$3073 $0 $1442 42427 SI (1-2ESP n$2533)0 $0 348 S17954 V866 - $7 4

117amp2 1248 ($S305) (51S-7 ($24497)t $58s6 $2173 0 SO 349 $293G7 $8S6 $121 $34 S229 ($53 ($2072

$0 sB- $233716 0 so 348 18734 $ 56 $SHS28 $ 93 $11 17 51 (t235 (13434 )$02 $556 $G349 0 50s 348 $1910 ISsG $17243 152 144 $16523 S1154 (M527)$0 s856 $56011E 0 $0 348 $9491 $862 $17E23 $6312 213529SID $18E6 $5713 $464 (S8950)0 so 345 $9881 S1 $18015 $77035 $2570 $578W- ($5617)s0 VO15865 $5827 0 $0 348 520279 $1866 $1541321 ($4650) $1866

$53852 $30136 $10892 ($4460)$5944 0 $0 348 $20684 ($2784) $23468 $9235 $3171 $14381 ($2047)

S10606 $37631 0 $0 7018 $347304 $143693 $203611

A-59

TABLE A-30 (Contd)

7Ec-acy ar ka lysis fc7nergy Irvestre-ts - Egypt M I

caita Costs EerEf araetErs RatetEtrr tr 72

PAcuisit ioon $ Price cf Di1 Transortaior SOi1 Es-aat

ortrzt io $0

irteronnectior U0 Enrgy Savs - Fuel Use TDTPL (Ca 51

Construct Time 0 -onths

Ozeating and Norral ainterance Costs

- ----Operating Cost $C66 year

Coerating Lifetime 2 year_

ma=jor Equipmet RepairPElacement

Replace Cost $4650)period Replace Period 20 years

$400k bl (yr -shy year

348 bblyear r bblyear

I)

DIK Rate

0 2

4 4

Epound 10

11 2 12

14 Cal

e s 13 MA

PV of Perfits

$347204 28eC 72f)

2307 c2-817

$153=17 $140 522

$131004 122432 $114751

$07847$101622

$3-993 58646 $78143

1W of Costs

143653 $2C-21 a 40 $4235

$134 260 $ 35 $30276 $E842

$229345 35171 $25218 $143912I1

$125306 $5692 $12473 $123728 $3976)

$1234 $51T6)3088 $122419 (20 796)

$121847 ($25 854 5120 841 (334S5) $119988 ($41846)

PC Ratio

242 2003

172 -47

127

105

323

83

C7 071 065

A-60

orc-ic nFiarcial Aav=s shyr rerr Investrents -- ypt EE

----------

Por Case ofFIE MS 14 - HFLu r Ss~zlnz C Fszalatior Rate cf 20

pRZ3 $2I T iE

Zzplta 2eratir Ccst of 11 FLel Used Yea ccist cst $B (kt

Pcu isit icn107335 Tra-ort $0

Ccstr-t icr I irternect io $0 1 ftctal f 099Z $2K IS C$10 0

$ 6z I$-z 3 $50 5162=0 $56 0

4 S s T5 05 So S= $6L-24 0 E SO S $155E 0 7 $0 $112CI U689 0 C to S680 $1723 0

SO cEo $17 0 S $1793 oIi $ t S1568c28 0

$0 C6S0 $1865 013 $0 $1E8 $1902 0 14 $0 t6Vo $940 015 t0 680 $1979 0 16 $0 1680 $20-19 0 17 $0 iamp80 $2059 0 18 $0 C1680 $2100 0 19 $0 $16580 $2142 0 20 $0 $1680 $2185 0 a1 ($453) $1680 $2229 0

Fue C-5l

S5 ts 23

so $0 $0 $0

so

St)$0 $0 $0

to $0 $0 $c to $0

$0 so

Saved nre-y

E-uii

348 348

348 348 345 343

348 341

-7n

342 348

342 348 348 348 348 248 34C 348

Vaue c Saved

Enerry

t-371 s4

$5421

S- 540 $5 50 $5763 $5279 Sf I9 S

t$- Z5$5353

$5450 $E620

S753 -888

$7025 $7 165 $730 $7455

$7605 $7757

rnnual Zash Flcw Cost Crrert $

1o2 275 1-o07405 $168^ $3E44 $6) 275

t1650 m1 i680 $2970 680 $403

$I680 $ 23 680 S4 31F

680 $4436

amp2553680 $4E33

(1850 $421C f1 680 t 0

$16s0 73 $1680 55202-s1680 $5345 $6 s5456 $16 u $5623

S680$5775 $1680 $5325

$2856) S10612

Diccirted Cas 4 8

5)$C~ S17 4^5) ) 3

152=r

f537 002) W17 751 5332) (9S4633)

($30 V-($ r7) C2SS934) ($83403) ($3 54) 1$5

0412) ($84493)

3 $ o(S74 04N) ($30043) (S7 92 1 (ST79a3)

-$72_) ($75018)

(V783) (374153) 17 K ) (72 (52 814) (37065) 3$55885 ($69094] 55995 (567572) (55144) ($68 127) ($47332) ($I4754) ($424A8) (362477)

io (n 2 i = 10 12

(s-7405 (S27405 104 0435051

(s($10 z 1 M-33~09 m) (VI3 414)

33513 3 M 891 (M28451 (15574) $90475 ( 446

3)520 ($9494) (585 1911 t$377 ^2T

(4(22 452) ($8415 ) C3 766) (22ES)($79192) ($aO0 S 723) ($80737) ($76351 37972) ($ 072) (373 1) ($73872) 1177M00) 372764) ($76930) (371 725) (76T2209 ($70 756) ($7541) ($69179) ($74441)

$103459 $33880 0 s0 7018 $130239 S137 339 ($7100)

A-61

TABLE A-31 (Contd)

Econozic and Financia ay for Energy Investmets -- Egypt E

Capi costs BerefIt Pararsters Internal Rate of Return -057

Acquisition $17735 Price 2i Transortatior $0 0Ci sa-t

Corstruction $0 Interconnection Er y Savrs

- ---- Fuel UsE

TOTk (Cap) $I07 Q

Construct TivE 10 months

Operating and Normal Maintenarce Costs

Operatir Cost $1680 year Operating Lifetime 2 years

Major Euipment Repaireplacement

Replace Cost ($4536)period Replace Period 20 years

i bb (yr 2year

348 lyear

0 bblyea

1) risc P Cf Rats BenEfits

0 $ 032

$105270 4 $BW548 6 $72307 9 $51 3

0 $52725 1 $49 126

SE$4512 13 $43032

14 $40443 1 $3108 16 $3997 18 $342 2C0 $23303

PV of Costs

137339

$132 Ek3 2037

$126130 $1373

$121904 $121 $120353 $113633

$113 072 $118514

$117102 $116338

NPV

($7100)

($27423) ($42483) ($5 823) (524T7)

($63179) ($71964) ($74441) ($76651)

($78629) ($80405) 388-0($22005) ($84760) ($87034)

BC Ratio =z=

5

073 067 C57 050

043 041 038 036

034 032 031 028 025

A-62

Econo ard r-ia nalysis fc- Enery rvastmerts -- Et EEA IO

TPPLE A-32

For Case cfF_E TET 4 - HaJ-W TEXTIEIPP ( _=EOCC70R pCE -C PRICz OF QUM Pssumir 3il Escalation Rate of 20

Cata DOerati Cost of Cil Fuel UsEd Fuel SavE Errgy

Value Cf Save- Anrual Cash -Ic Dir-counted Cash 1ow (kV) B i

Year Czet (E) Cc-t Eciv Energy Cost Lrrert 8 10

1 -cusjtic-$107 1 TransDcrt t3 SCorstrLtO $0 I rerccrrect o 0

2 3 4

5s 6 7

9

10

12 13 14 15 1-

17

19

20 21

Tota $97 5 2

$630 S0 $1680

$0 $ $0 $680 $0 $6S0

0to SEscl $0 $ SK $ 168C

168 V71650

S0 S1630 $0 S 680 $0 1180 0 $1680

$10 1$1 S0 so10 11680 0 $650

$0 t680 (14536) $1680

$20

$2040 $2s3o

$21 22 $I55 $20a $SL V12 $2 97 52 43 S220 V1-42

$2487 $2536 $2587 V6 30 V2692 $274 $20 12 56 $2 14

12972

0

0 C 0 0

C 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0

$0

$0 10

s0 $0 s0 s0 $0 s0 s0

S0 $0 s0

s0 $0 t0

3 t0

s0

s0

$0

5N

348 342

343 34

342 348

348 345

348 348 348 348 348 348 348 34 348 348 348

348

S160

S7 033 S7241

t7386 $7534 t7684 $7238 $7225 $85 1$318

13484

U8SE4 S3827

$9004 $3184 $3367 1955 19746 $9941

$10139

$10342

103275

11680 $680

$G60 $5150 1680 S1680

1$680 4$1680

$1680

S1680 $1680 $1680 $680 $1680 $180 $1680 $1168 S1680

($2856)

(-c ($10751s- C71)5

tE4 C 3o4 (102097) 6=SE3 ($3721)

5-7 15970) M$2800 5954 1$5poundpound5 $8497) $004 ($3721) ($8441) $ 158 (176H-4) ($3V530) t16 ($72C25) $7645 sz475 (157-254) 373347)

1r3 I E21) 27t=E(- ($70Q ) S1616804 ($Ez0941 (55875) $S974 2534) ($E3884) $7147 ($ oo)10 (5046) 17324 344702) 352353) $754 (S4C 3)9 ($55798) $7637 ($33100) (533755) S7 M (13189-) (151076) 1205 1127755) (48897 8261 (123 77 (46 29)

$2459 ($9662) ($44829)

$13193 ($1363 ($42038)

($107-5]

$0218a) (397592)

($8307)

(SK579) (322103)

($78S52) ( 7842) 373027) ($70403) (57952) (562) (16251) (115) (S59744) (Z803 (156 435) ($54943)

(353566)

($51604)

(101] $12276) 197843) M2305)(52372 ($00622

(SB654) SK 535) 3$80678) ($72 C3)

($7E 69 ($73473) (371474) (169253) (7961 (16642E) (165021) ($63737) ($625 2) ($61488) ($F0505)

($59137)

U-459 $33880 0 $0 7018 $173652 $137339 $36313

A-63

---------- -------

TABLE A-32 (Contd)TBLE (Calulated)

E-oroizic and Finania Anaaysis for Eergy investments -Egypt EA C

Cacital Costs Benefit Parameters Irterra Rate cREturn 26S

Pcouisitic $7993 Price cf Oi $2C (yr 1)Transortatio $0 Oil Esaa year li-c P of CConstruction $0 Rate BenfEtz Costs wV RatioIterconnection $0 Enry Savns 34E bbyear

UEl use C bblyear 0 73SS52 $137 3 $C313 126TDTAL Ca 7 $140320 $122593 $7657 106 4 IIZ398Constrct TicE I0 morths $122037 ($339) 089 5 $96409 $12- 130 ($23 721) 076 8 $3179 $12205 ($42038) 066Operatirc and Normal rairtenance Costs 10 $70293 $121904 ($5l 604) 58 1X $ampZ502 S12 M ($55 589) 054Operatirg Cost $1680 year 12 $61215 $12 0353 ($59 137) 051Operating Lifetime 21 years 13 $57376 $119633 ($52307) 043

14 $52924 $9072 (55148) 045Major Zqjioinert RepairReplacement 15 $50 1I1 $113514 ($67702) 043 16 A7-97 S1420002 ($70006) 041Replace Cost ($453S)period 18 $43123 $117102 ($73979) 037Replace Period 20 years 20 $39071 $116338 ($77266) 034

A-64

E~ocon2 -- rr Ar ys s fcr Ererzy Irvssttets -- 7rypt EE

TZE A-33

F Case TES 14 - W (0 ETD PE- $2T - PI-- O- DIS $25P)I Assuminz 0 Escalation Rate cf 20

azita Ceratir Ccst cf Oil Fuel Used Fuel SaveeErergy Value -f

save nual Cash Flow DEounted Casi Flow (NPV) 0 i = YS-ar st Cost $bbl (Bbi) Cost Ecuiv crerpy Cost Currert $ 4 8 011 2

rar-zor

Cnst~t I 2tsrzr-ezti- $1

E

12$

14 if

iG

17

18

19

20

21

a S230

s$1 S60

$$ $1169 o$0 $80

$3 S 90 i $i 6c 7 v68n

$0 t68c

so S680 S t 1680

$$ $Sao

$680 $0 $1680

$ $1680 $0 $I63

0 $1-680 $ $1620 $0 $1620 $ $680

$0 $1680 ($4536) $180

S25co

$2550 $ 2553

127 06 127V

a

V-1 72

$2323 t2962

$3047

$31C8 $3171

$3234 $3293

53365

$3432

$3501

$2571

$3842 $3715

0

o

c) 0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

$0

$0 so so

t0

SO $0

$0

0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0 so

$0

$0 $0

so $0 $0

348

347 345

348

342

342

348

34 348 343

348 348

348 343

348

348

348

348

348

348

S151450

$2874

323

$9417

$260E

t9735

53334

t 3 $13337

$1 605

$10817 $11034

$14 $47-

$11703

$ 43 $12122

$12426

$12674

$12328

S1032T

S0

6s0

$1680

$1680

t1680

t-1680

t16

$5

1680 S63 s1650 t1 580

$680

$w $60

$160

$1680 ($2856)

(t10E22f

$7134

$7553

$7737

$306

1218

12314

13 180$3717

$232

$3137 $ 3S4

$3-74 $373K

$10023

1510-22

$103503

$10746

$10-34 $1E784

(105z825) ($106225)

$3 T03154

($33032) ($93644 ($55375) ($W784) ($73764) ($22162)

($73250) ($73-76a

(56235) (71amp2) ($ 17) ($620)

($S4 29 J ($62 202 (43 7) ($5781)

($42 142) ($53737)

($3207) ($43 781 (3c354) ($4073)

($2464) $42 ($1255) 3332 1 ($3387) ($36055) ($7907) ($33 053) ($251 ($30221) $2723 $27532)

$8007 ($34984) $15211 ($21532)

310S225) (S106825) ($10028E I100 402) ($34133) $3425) ($25) ($83150) ($2 234) ($84232)

(37S313 $73725

($73731 ) ($3756231 ($53 45 (371852)

(5 431 ( ($E75 5 0)

($SEB5I) ($5406)

( (7578T 172 (157373)

(53($439 ($55185) ($41818) 379$5 ($44417) ISS347) ($421 84) ($49673) ($4010S) ($$143) $3-173) (-$746)

($36i 3M) ($45403) ($34023) ($43833)

$103453 $33880 0 $0 7018 $217065 $137333 $79726

A-65

TABLE A-33 (Contd)

Ec rC z ant Firn Anaiys- fc- Ererzy Investrerts - Egypt En MlIS

Czzota ss Benefit Parameters terra Rate cf eturn C40

flcquistici deg $17K= Transporatic $0

Sonstructior $0

Irterco rnectior $0

T3TAL Cap2 $107275

Lorstruzt Time 0th

Prce of 0i

C Escalat

rrgy Savngs

F-el Use

$2500 I (yr 20year

343 bbllvear

0 btlyear

11 -i- PV cf

Rat - enefits

0 $217

2 $17- 4-4 $144247

PV of

Costs

12339 $SOV-93 $129037 $2E30

11PV

$7726 $475-7 $15211(I5sES

BC

Ratio

158 132 112 096

Cperating and Nor a

Ocerating Cost

Operating Lifetime

Maintenace Costs

SEC year

21 years

L2r f 0 3

OX $37874

11 $81877 12 76520

I3 $7172014 $67405

$92273

$121904

$121 091 1353

$119632$119072

($21 53)

($34029

($23214)

($432833) ($47953)($516S7)

083

072 068 064 060 057

10ajcr Ecuipment Re~a rlRepaeet

Replace Cost ($4535)Ipericd

Replace Period 20 years

IS

18

20

$614

$53936

$53904

$48839

$11 514

$113002

$117102

$116338

($5000)

($52007)

($63198)

($67498)

054

051

046

042

A-66

Ecorcmic an Fnanria AralvsiE r Eer-y rveStMe-ts -- EZy EE C1I

TABLP-34

-r Case -fL TEST 4 - LEW TEX7Lfl LE $202-T - PR D-L $30BBL) Assir Oi Escalatior Rate of 20

Yea a-ta

Cost eratrCEt of Oi cost $pbl

el Used

(MI Fel

ost

zave Erergy

Ecuzv

VaLe cf s-ve

Energy P -a

Cest

Cash

Currert euro Dscounted Cash 4 8

1ow UNV)

10

9 i

12

1 ccuisCiticr 7 T7rarsort bull Co-tr t~ $

2

4

5

7 8

10

2

13

14

15

16

17 18 19

21

ITz~ta $C73 $22 ES

so 10 o sSo o $iE80 n $ 680 $0 U680

$0 $160 5 s62-

$0 680 f l

50 $Ss so $ss

$0 $6Ev

s $68 so $180

S0 siW8 to $1680 V) $65

$0 $1680 ($4536) $1680

$--D00

S32 $334

$32 7 C312

$3378

$2446 $5

3s85 357

$2730 $3355

$388

$353

$423

s412 $42CI

$42895

$417C

$4458

l c

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

so so o$0

so so $0

$0 so so

to $0

$0

$0

$0

so so

so s0

$0

$0

$0

53 348 246 348

343 343

348

348 348

348 348

348

348

348

348

348

348 348

348

348

348

S1 70 s I 49 $1 3F2 072

$11301 $527

$1177

$11992 $122532

S2477 $2$2726

$12231

Z2240 $2505

$12775

$14051

$4 322 $1463

$14911

$15203

$15513

S10227S 15 Si680 $29E

$1580 $312 $amp80 ] $630 $S2 $1680 $36 7 $168) $C077 $680 $C312 $68 $05

E0 S07377 680 $11046

$680 $1130 $680 11 5w S680

t 630 $12035 S60 o S1237-

S11530 s1T652 $660 $12 923 $ i0 $13231

$68 $13523

82856)$18259

310S 525) ($37S5

(s8nL) 172843) ($64749)

3$5S785-

($42942) ($41233)

f$2-53) ($21O)

($18650)

($ 9)

32($4527)

$24S8

$327

$103 22724

$255

$35677

$44060

165f25)1 SZ

(0 -59) ($32837)

($7582)

1$9 -5) (S2774)

5S75f ($510)

3$45551 (340533)

($25692)

($3101)

($26753)

3-631

13725)

(K5M504Z) ($11545)

($2234)

($5093)

($1158)

(S10S 5 (356332)

($3733 ($3732 ($7716)

($71047)

($U35 (0067) ($5M144)

(S55 (4S306)

($42345)

1538662)

($L237

(632C51)

($23020)

($2227) ($23777)

($2 337)

($13185)

(16454)

1 cc-T25) ($3327)

($91207) (184517)

(73403)

($72816)

($6771)

163046 ($53784)

(G54831) (35334) (08025

s$ 8

($42423

( 3

($37673)

($35J60) ($23725)

($32004)

($30433)

($28S19)

$103455 $33d8O 0 $0 7018 $60 478 $1373n $123135

A-67

TABLE A-34 (Contd) 2Lk T-CTETPL Calc~1ated)FL_TI0~PBL

o~ar Fariai naiysi- f-Erergy l=VEsrEtS - Ecyt EE i

trr Rat-- c REturn 787Benefit araetersazital S-sts

t -ri-e of CiD $3000 bbl (yr 1)$10995n PV of BIC

Trarspoto $0 Oil Eszaat 20Iear ri VV C Rate Eerefits Ccsts IPV Ratio

Corstruct ior $r == shyErray Savr s 348 bblyear

intetor rztior $0 Fue -e 0 bblyear 0 $26C478 $137339 1123133 190

2 105 40 S-32693 $77847 1 9 TOTPL (Cap S10799n

4 $173037 $1903-7 $44060 134

6 $144614 $126130 $183483 115 Construct TiME mcTth-s

$1228 $12379E W158 09

t 129N 087tI0O449 ($16454)woerating and Norma Mainterarce C0ts

11 $98253 $121031 ($r233) 081

2 $91824 $120353 ($22 Z29) 076 Operatirc Cost $1680 year

13 $8K064 $19683 ($33619) 072 O eratir 21 yearsLifetie_

14 $80885 $119072 ($33186) 068

5 $7E217 $18514 ($42237) 064 Major Equipment RerairReplacement

$71995 $11802 ($4007) 061

18 $64685 $117102 ($52417) C5shy_16

Replace Cost ($4536)period 2N $58607 $11S338 ($57731) 050

Replace Period 20 years

A-68

Eccnoc and inarzia ryss fc- -re-y rvEstre-ts - E yot EE

TAEE F-35

Fcr Case ofrZ- 5TEST 4 - HELAN TEXT-IPX Mu Assuin_-0 Escalation Rate cf 20

CTOR PRICE $20SQc- -Cc GI j3mBu

Yea

r

s s-t

--t

aoita ost

7

t

eratirn Lst

Cost of IE

Oi1

Feel Used

(Ebl) Fue

Cost

zavEd Erery EcLIv

Value of SEvE

Ern-rzy Annual

Cost Cash Flow Lrrert S

Liscourted 4

Cash F~A

8 (NM

IC i =

2

2

E

7

1$

--

00 21

t--0795

S $0 4

f2

SO 1$

$o SO f0 $ $ S

so$0

tTSO to

($4535)

$103459

2311

1s8c C)

S o 58

$680

SGzr-SsW ss $S80

$16s2 $X30

$630

$ 3 $ampV

$168 51680 $9

$1680 s680

$33880

$M570 $3

$3714 $373

$335

$3942

$4020 $401

$4 3 S42 ES

$4352 $4439

$4E28

545 is $47

$S422 $4301 $4j 9

15099 55201

0

0 0

0 C

C

0

C

a 0

0 0

C

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

Vi

s0 10

$0

SC

t0

to U$C

$V S

$0 $0

$1

oS^1 s0 SC so

s0 so

s0

s

348 342

248 343

343

342

342 343

-43 348

345 348

343

348 342

348 348 348

348 348

7 01

52 S2424 S 1672 t2926 $13 14

S 4-4

$13717

$1399 $14271

$14 ss S14347

t5144 t15447

$1r756 $16071$[ 3

$16721 $17055 17395

$17744 $180 3

$303891

A-69

245 1E8O $68

$66o $1S80

680

f1680

$us

s S680

s60 V-680

) 60

$11680 1G0

$-680 $680 $180

$1680 (2 5)

$137 3

$10744 $10992

24S Er

$1762

$12037

23 $1680$259 $1287S $13167

3464 $2757

$S076

$14391$114723

$15041 1575 $1576

$16064 120955

1165552

--915) M--72

(1h7) 5 211 Z229

($47334 7H)

(S3733-1 (23353 ($1q134 $02393

($1432) $7105

s5E

$23871S220n40

40 07 $4-964 55572 $Q346 $72910

0245 (S10524S ($105245) 1 237) $-3473) 39S53) 36S273) 387334) (373N 77S4 ($7-4)- (S792S)

(IC3S437037) 372374) ($40) (I781 ($597)

(-68 ) 15936) (M9 799 S473 (t4 7) (54230)

342I1 S$4795) ($43 4-) 34S9 $-9334 11445

(3273701 (S34 2353) (340262) (1253 1212n3s391 ($IE129 T251S) 12858) ($1076 ($2107D) (n632) ($3C53) (S-723-3)($26687)

3$4 (137631 ($23m9)

$2975 $1489) (2546) $7130 (37448) ($1230G)

$I063 (4521) ($172--3) $14786 (31994) (11 397) $19231 S120 (113 25)

TABLE A-35 (Contd)ASSPTIONS TAPBLE ME-F-COST TULE (CalcJaled)

E~ooi a Finacial Asi for Energy Investrents - Eypt EE

raitaSs Penefit raees Iter-E Rate of Returr 1014

Pcnuistio $SI7 Price of CiE h (yr 1)7-arrtatior $0 Oil Ezalat 2 year Dis PY cf V of FCrstrcticr $

Rate Enrefits Cc-zts NPDV Ratiotercnnecticr $0 Ergr~y Savrs 343 ttlyear - -ue Use 0 -bllyEar 0 $302231 $1373393 T2T

2 -(7925$2fZ $333 121 37 185 cnstrnxt Tiia 10 Lerths

46 2C34 $23C37 $72 10 57 6 $163716 $1L $4256 34 ee t1437S $372E $0281 116pe-atinz arsd NorLal nainternare Costs 0 $23022 $2504 S120 01

Operating Cost C680 year 10 $107129 $1E3 353 (S2 00 83 13 S100403 $29693 319275)

woeratino Lifetime 21 years 084

a- Ec RErairReplacemerit 4 $0426E $113072 ($24705)ipet 073883-) $514 $ 94)15 S - $-31 (2 07

-$---I16 eplace Cost (4536)Iperiof $3934 $18002 ($34008) 071 -e---

Repace Period 20 years 12 $75465 $117102 ($41637) 064 20 $66375 $116338 ($47963) 059

A-70

-Ecui adFin-ncla Aralys fcr re-rr-t - Ect Efl S

T-PLE -36

- Case cf-l 75- 14 - ZLWAN TxTLE11P (CLETOR F1 -e-1 - C_ OF L $40PL) Pfssu-ir 0i Ezsaatio- Rate cf 20

saves a cfaita _2erat Cost cz C Fue Used Ftel -rery Eaez ra1 ash oi DiEccurted Cash Fioi (PV) i =Yerpoundzsl (Bb1) Ccst Eciv E-er=- Cst poundjrrent 4 0 l

1 Trar-ort $L or Sc

ac-r r-

Thplusmnt$ $2 $4000 0 $0 53 32220 $ OZ 275 115V S ) $L) 5 $52$ $S $4080 0 $0 342 S4133 5160 bull ( s ($34 34 $4 5251eS oS ($845575 337$S $230 S4162 C $0 348 l144S2 $680 S222 tS2 08B21 (t 383) c(sa84) 354572)4 $ -- 45 0 $0 348 $14 72 80 $13-2 37)443) VT2F35) ($74 M)8 (37221- $ 6 54230 6

c SO 34 $ 07 $1650 513337 (52 333) 5 (s650141 ($56745)41 S6pound0 $4pound 0 $0 343 t5369 s0 $1268 ($47748) S2833) ME514) 3522 3787 S $45C I so 348 s Sw W=10131S13336 $67613SEBT($54614) ($587)scl S621 s~lsK 0o 348 sIz230 $680 $1IL3 I j 2 (-6631 (34171 5447 $ i620 $S437 0 so 348 C2 1 S 42 (f23 ($27 (4)ic $1 11 $4780 0 s0 343 $63 $1680 $1435 (54E 7) (S5284) (252 $3411 $0 960 $4276 0 $0 248 s-03 $1680 $Z222 571 ($1420) ($13 ( 0

1 $ $6al $4373 0 $0 348 $7305 T6O S15628 8(75W (S1S7M ($24 537)$O ^$ 73 0 SO 348 $17654 t1680 $1f3 5 25842 fss (S 641)- 2059714 C05630 IS174 0 $0 348 $12 007 t680 $l6327 53=-048 $4847 ($(S2 $16955)15 sso 15278 0 s0 348 $18367 ~ 6amp s-6637 S45 284 $10E54 (52518) ($3441)15 so Eao $2387 0 so 348 $18734 31680 $17054 $54754 $15$564 31032--17 160 $5497 0 so 348 s1100 T1680 t7423 $4053 $ 20921 15358 ($7482)18 $0 sso 567 0 so 348 $13431 t1680 $1781 5 73203 $2s5 5$8871 ($4888713 $0 $Sao $5773 0 $0 348 $13881 $1680 $18 201 $2188 2r313 S C2 252120 t0 680 $5227 0 $0 348 $20279 $1650 $I63 521016 $3467 $1$196 ($3361)21 $s $1680 $5944 0 $0 348 $20684 $2 856) $22540 $101753 $3 72115 185 $2079

$103458 $33680 0 $0 7018 $347304 S1370 $ 05965

A-71

TABLE A-36 (Contd) S TIO TfPBLE EEN-TT-CCSTS TP- -uatedCa1c

Eccncmic and Financial Pavsis fc- Energy irvestcents -- Eypt EEA 96

aita Costs -eefitParaeters nterna Rate of etur- 1229

fcouisition 0799 Price c Oil $40 bbl (yr 1)Transp rtatir $0 Oil Esalat 20year Disc PV of PV of BZCorst-utie $0 Rate Berfits Costs Ratio

irterconntior $0 Enry Savrs 348 bblyear Fue USE 0 bbllyear N $347304 $33 1 2TOTL -Cap -107 995 S22D720 $132 5S3 $148127 212

4 $2307S6 $2 037 $10 175 -79Construct Time 19 months 6 $92818 $126130 628 53 8 $1amp3517 $123796 3721 132Operating and Normal Mainterance Costs 10 $14C52 $1219(4 $1363 115

11 $3004 $121091 $9913Operating Cost $1650 year 108

12 $1 432 $12C353 $20 102Operating Lifetime 21 years 1 $114751 S83 ($4 31 09z $11

14- $107847 $119072 ($11225) 091Major Equipment RepairRelacemert 5 $1C1622 $110514 (c6291) 086 16 $95993 $118002 ($220C09) 081

Replace Cost ($4536)period 8 $8624E T17102 ($30 S56 074Replace Period 20 years 2 $78143 $115338 ($32195) 067

A-72

APPENDIX B

Preliminary Cost Estimates

Three (3) systems are considered appropriate for cost analysis Cost estimates are preliminary for use in the Application ReviewConceptual

Design portion of this project

A Waste Heat Recovery System

B Solar Thermal Collection System

Current $US (mid-1986) are applied then escalated to mid-1987 theexpected construction period at 10 percent

For cost assessment purposes all material and supervision will beconsidered imported Egyptto Labor costs will reflect some Egyptianrate influence although certain installation procedures will requireexperienced labor not currently available in Egypt

The average annual wage for the Egyptian construction industry in 1985Is 7800 LE or $5778 (US) ($135 LE per US $)

An average labor rate in the United States for construction servicesapplicable to this project is estimated by the R S Means Company to be$2177 per hour in 1985 (crew Q4) An estimated thirty percent imporledlabor with severity percent Egyptian labor can be used for establishing a mixed labor rate average of $936 per hour (US) A labor cost modifier for wages becomes $936$2177 or 0431

Equipment and system cost estimates and percentages are established byusing R S Means Company Cost Data and1985 equipment suppliersbudget pricing estimates

The solar cost data are determined in flxed-and variable-cost increments as required by the FCHART-4R program input format A solar collection array size of 4000 square feet ( 72 m2 ) is estimated for use in determining the variable cost factor

B-I

A WAS[E HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM

DESC R I FT ION SIEI OTAI TOTAL

3 WAY WASTE WATER DIVERTING VALVES SUMP MATERIALS SUMF PUMP FILTER SCREEN SUMP PUMF LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT STORAGE TANK WASTE HE(I S IORAGE TANK PUMP STORAGE TANK LEVEL CONTROL AND VALVE WASTE HEAT EXCHANGER $1200)1000 EITI SUB-TOTAL EQUIFMENT(MID-1986) $160900

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $176990

FLOW ItDICATORS AND GLOBE VALVES 3 WAY PROCESS WATER BLENDING VALVES STEAM CONTROL VALVES PROCESS WATER TEMPERATURE CONTROLLERS SUB-TOTAL EQUIPMENT(MID-1986) $71400

ESCALATION FACTOR 11 TOTAL EQUIPMENT (MID-1987) $78540

PIPING COST (40 EQUIP COST) 040 $102212

INSULATION COST (75 PIPING COST) 075

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL COST $434401

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) $310597 MODIFIERLABOR MIX 043 MODIFIED LABOR COST $133557

SUB-TOTAL MATERIAL + LABOR $567958

TOTAL WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $567958

B-2

B SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSTEM VARIRIABLE COrST (HIID-19117)

DESCR I FIUIN SOLAR CULA-ECTORS $10 0uFT2 COLLECTOR AREA 4000 rF2 COLLECTOR COST SOLAR CIRCIJLAFIN(3 PUMPFS SULAR 1ISTRIBLTI 1 PIlIPS STRUCTURAL STEEl SOLAR CONTROLS INSVRUMELNV AIR SYSEIIFIPING LOW VOLTAGE CABLE EXCAVArION AND FOUNDAFIONS ELECTRICAL

TOTAL EQtJIPMENT(MI ID-1986) ESCALATION FACTOR TOTAL ELUI MENT (MID-1787) PIPING COST (40 COLLECTOR COST) INSULATION COST (75PIPING COST) TOTAL MATERIAL COST I$144050

$105500

I1

075

$116050 $16lt00 $12000

LABOR COST (715 MATERIAL COST) MOIFIERLABOR MIX MODIFIED LABOR COST

$102996 043

$44286

MATERIAL + LABOR $188338

FREIGHTDUTYTAXES TO EGYPT 10 $18834

SUBTOTAL $207172

SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY 15

$207172 $31076

TOTAL VARIABLE COST COST PER FT2 $60

$238248

B-3

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FIXED COST (MID 1987)

DESCRIPTION CONTRALCTOIR S RENTAL SUFPL IES CONIRACrORS FACILITIES CONTRACTORS UTILITIES CONTRACTORS MATERIAL HANDLING CONTRACTORS CLEAN-UP DISMANTLING AND MOVING BOXING AND CRATING U S IRANSPORTAT ION SUB-TOTAL $34000

SUB-TOTAL M34000 CONTINGENCY 15 $5100

TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

LGE COST BASED ON CURRENT FIELD TEST PROJECT

TOTAL VARIABLE COST $238248 TOTAL FIXED COST $39100

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $277348

EEA COST DATA BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTS USING IN-COUNTRY CONTRACTOR AND EQUIPMENT

VARIABLE COST $2862FT2 $2862 COLLECTOR SIZE (FT2) 4000 TOTAL VARIABLE COST $114480

EEA FIXED COST $26757

TOTAL SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION COST $141237

CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY

A WASTE HEAT RECOVERY SYSTEM $567958

D SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTION SYSfEM $277348

1(lAL CUNSTRUCTION CU9 A amp B $845 05

B-4

APPENDIX C

7)i)7771Cell i) Ofr

U6~ (Ici 1 -211~c~~

f~t 2l

c-1

1986 1OCT

I L jB~ i i~ I C r 6 ~ ~Kn Z 7

B~ C~u ~d~ ~ c) 7 fie~~

dF -Me- cluy( - (F --

(44 I It Lccc~ e~lry

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