Renewable Energy & the Irish · PDF fileEvaluating ‘shovel-ready’, ... 2018-2019...

Renewable Energy & the Irish MarketDr. David Connolly

Head of Policy, IWEA

DataCentres Ireland Conference, 22nd Nov 2017

Introduction

22 November 2017 DATACENTRES IRELAND 2

Who Are We?IWEA & our Members• Largest national network with members from various sectors

◦ Wind farm developers

◦ Turbine manufacturers

◦ Construction companies

◦ Supply companies

◦ Accountants

◦ Insurance

◦ Consultancy

◦ Legal firms

◦ Banks

◦ Small local businesses

What Drives Us? IWEA's Aims• IWEA believes that Ireland can be a world

leader in renewable energy

◦ Reduce CO2 emissions

◦ Create investment and jobs

◦ Increase energy security

◦ Create a thriving Irish industry

• IWEA is committed to responsible wind energy development.

• IWEA supports the development of other renewable and integration technologies

IWEA works to…

• Promote Irish wind energy with the associated emissions reductions, energy security, cost savings & investment to communities.

• Promote a factual and clear understanding of wind energy & its benefits for all.

• Respond on policy issues to Government & stakeholders.

• IWEA is committed to responsible and sensitive wind energy development.

IWEA Structure

Committees are the

‘Content’ of IWEA


IWEA Committees

Markets

Energy System

Health & Safety

Planning

Asset Manage-

ment

Grid

IWEA Council (x28)

Communications, e.g. stakeholder meetings, presentations, media

Membership e.g. events, training (Skillnets), eZine,

newsletter.

Main Sponsor

IWEA Annual Conference 21st & 22nd March 2018

Clayton Hotel, Burlington Road

Sponsorship opportunities available

Save the Date

Wind Power in Ireland


The Story of Wind in Ireland:An Industry Delivering on Policy

Strong Policy (REFIT, Gates,

etc)

Industry Delivering

Ireland Benefiting


2000-2010 2000-2020 2000-2040

More Wind Than Ever Before (2nd globally):Expect >25% of Electricity from Wind in 2017


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3 GW

Wind breaking records:Regularly meeting 60% of daily electricity demand

Among the top in Europe

Ireland = World #2

ROI Annual Electricity Mix in 2016


Some days Wind Power is Largest Form of Electricity Generation


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Electricity Demand (MW) Wind Power (MW) Wind Penetration (% of Demand)

Regularly Meeting >50% of daily electricity demand (1st & 2nd Oct)

Wind Penetration >60%With Interconnector = ~80%


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Electricity Demand (MW) Wind Power (MW) Wind Penetration (% of Demand)

Regularly Meeting >50% of daily electricity demand (1st & 2nd Oct)

Wind is Benefiting Ireland


Approximately €5 Billion invested to date

Creating Jobs: ~4500 across IWEA membership

Investing in Ireland

Local Authority Rates of ~€20 Million/year

IWEA Min Recommendation of ~€60k/turbine for local communities

Investing in Communities

Reducing Energy Imports: By ~€300 Million in 2015 (SEAI)

Reducing Carbon Emissions: By ~3 Million Tons in 2015 (SEAI)

Sustainable Energy

Reducing Electricity Generation Cost: ~€100 Million/year (& increasing)

Reducing Compliance Fines: ~€700 Million in 2020 (Based on SEAI data)Saving Money

Outlook to 2020


2017

3200 MW

2020

~4300 MW

Wind the only chance to hit 2020 targetsBUT Lots of Variables

EirGrid800 MW Data Centres by 2020


EirGrid Demand in 2020: 30-32 TWh/year


2020:2 TWh Variation

Data Centre Demand:~15% of Total Demand in 2020Almost all growth


2020

EirGrid: 3900-4300 MW of Wind by 2020


IWEA Analysis on Data Centres

•With 900 MW of data centres, then we need 4680 MW of wind in 2020 to meet 40% RES-E target


IWEA Forecast of Data Centre Demand (2015) is 1500 MW by 2020Would require ~4900 MW to meet target


Wind Can Do More by 2020…If Barriers are Removed!

•Total Wind Potential in Ireland:

◦ 16 GW Onshore

◦ 30 GW of offshore

•Originally in the pipeline ~5500 MW

•Now we expect ~4400 MW

◦ If everything goes right

◦ Evaluating ‘shovel-ready’, expect > 500 MW


Challenges to 2020


Potential Bottlenecks: Strain from 300 MW/year to 600 MW/year?

2017

• 3000 MW

• ~250 Wind Farms

2020

• ~4400 MW for 40% RES-E

• ~150 Wind Farms Under Development

2018-2019

• Need 600 MW/year by 2020

• Record to date: 300 MW/year


Wind Energy IsCaught in a Policy Tug of War


• Onshore wind is Ireland’s Cheapest Renewable Energy

• Policy created the onshore wind industry

• Build 37% RES-E by 2020

• Create REFIT as a floor price to make this happen

• REFIT may no longer be a guaranteed floor price

• WEGS have very low noise restrictions

• But still need 37% RES-E from onshore wind by 2020

• EU Clean Energy Package calling for more RES post 2020

REFIT to Change in I-SEM

•REFIT is the toundation of success to date

•IWEA engaged frequently with DCCAE over the summer:◦ Proposed new “Guarantee with Annual

Tolerance” Option

•Currently waiting for the public consultation


Wind Energy Guidelines:Noise limits seem too severe

•Due in Q1 2018

•Noise levels could result in effective setback of >1000 m◦ IWEA analysing this at present

•Could have major impact on:◦ Energy yield of wind farms◦ Land for future development


Majority of Irish People Support Wind Energy in Ireland


2078 People In Sample

But Minority Don’t See the Benefits of Wind Power


Planning Subject to Many Legal Challenges


Planning: Something is Broken?>100 Judicial Challenges Against An Bord Pleanala(~20 Wind Farms in Latest IWEA review)

FEB 2015: CASE STUDY

DENMARK & IRELAND = APPLE DATA CENTRES

DENMARK – COMPLETE BY END 2017

IRELAND – NO PLANNING


Balance Sheet Prospects for 2018 are Concerning


COST:Rates

COST:Planning

COST:Risk

INCOME:REFIT

COST:I-SEM

REMINDER:Wind is Benefiting Ireland


Approximately €5 Billion invested to date

Creating Jobs: ~4500 across IWEA membership

Investing in Ireland

Local Authority Rates of ~€20 Million/year

IWEA Min Recommendation of ~€60k/turbine for local communities

Investing in Communities

Reducing Energy Imports: By ~€300 Million in 2015 (SEAI)

Reducing Carbon Emissions: By ~3 Million Tons in 2015 (SEAI)

Sustainable Energy

Reducing Electricity Generation Cost: ~€100 Million/year (& increasing)

Reducing Compliance Fines: ~€700 Million in 2020 (Based on SEAI data)Saving Money

Summary of 2020 Outlook

•Likely to Require ~4300 MW

•We can deliver >4300 MW

•But need support from stakeholders e.g. policy, regulator, TSO, DSO, local authorities and An Bord Pleanala


Outlook to 2030


EU Wants More:Primarily via Clean Energy Package• EU Clean Energy Package includes lots of positives: one-stop

shop, 3-year visibility, repowering, corporate PPAs, etc.

• Increasing Targets for 2030 (which may be higher):◦ 27% Renewable Energy◦ 27% Energy Efficiency Improvement◦ 40% CO2 Reduction compared to 1990 levels

• Members States to Submit Energy Plans to 2030◦ 2020 is a Minimum i.e. 16% RES & 40% RES-E◦ Linear Progression for Targets i.e. 2020-2030◦ IWEA Energy Strategy can support this


More Wind Each Second Is Possible!Denmark: Wind Power >100% Electricity

Demand Sometimes


Onshore costs expected to reduce: -26% by 2025

Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database and analysis

Global LCOE of onshore wind, 1995-2025

Electricity Demand Will Grow:More E = More RES-E = More RES-H & RES-T

• Increasing Demand = Data Centres

•RES-H = Heat Pumps (Renewable Heat Incentive)

•RES-T = Transport (Too cool to fail!)


Mobility

(Partly) Flexible Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Bioenergy Fuels

Combined Heat & Power

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Demands

Heat Pump

Fluctuating Heat

Fluctuating Electricity

Thermal

Storage

Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electric Vehicles

Electrofuels

Combustion Engines

Electricity Storage

More Electrification = More RES-H & More RES-T

+More Storage

for RES-E=

More RES-E %


Storage Will Come:Sector Integration is Key•Turlough Hill = 2 GWh

•40,000 EVs x 50 kWh = 2 GWh

•400,000 EVs x 50 kWh = 20 GWh


Political:

Delivery of 2020 Targets

2030 Renewable framework

New support schemes

Grid connection policy required

Planning Certainty

Cost certainty - Rates

T

Technical:

Delivery of DS3 programme

Storage

Grid code changes

Further interconnection

to EU & UK

Follow on from DS3

SNSP levels

What will we need to get to 2030 Vision

Renewable Energy & the Irish MarketDr. David Connolly

Head of Policy, IWEA

DataCentres Ireland Conference, 22nd Nov 2017

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