Report to GCOS SC-XVIOcean Observations Panel for

Climate

D.E.Harrison, ChairNOAA/PMEL

WMO HQ

October 2008

Ocean Observations Panel for Climate - Terms of Reference

• Develop recommendations for a sustained global ocean observing system, in support of WCRP, GOOS and GCOS climate objectives, including phased implementation.

• Help develop a process for ongoing evaluation and evolution of system and recommendations.

• Support global ocean observing activities by involved parties, via liaison and advocacy for agreed observing plans

Overview• Ocean O.S. remains mostly in PI-research-driven

world, motivated by national research goals. • Few National Ocean “Services”. GOOS paradigm ok?• National Agents of Implementation generally have

not come forward following GEO/IOC request. • Can the OS be sustained even for next decade via

science community, in the face of demands to deliver services and not ‘just’ science? ?Coord. Funders?

• Implementation progress in situ nearly flat-lined. CEOS test - Jason-3. Many R&D and data system challenges, esp. for system evolution. ?National JCOMM support diminishing?

• Ocean climate information development proceeding slowly, through ocean analysis; reanalysis; science

• OceanObs2009 Conf. to expand community and seek agreement on priorities for 2nd decade of O.O.S.

Needed – Next Ocean Science Framework

• CLIVAR ends in 2013; its basin activities have helped with much of the global ocean observing system

• New framework(s) required if the global observing system is to be sustained via national support for ocean science program(s), unless OS funding arrangements change dramatically.

• Global-Coastal? Global-Ecosys? opportunities?• Timing re v2 GCOS IP and OObs09?

Some Ocean Science Issues • Almost everything about low-frequency ocean

conditions is pretty uncertain, including trends.• Deep ocean sampling seems needed but TBD.• Hard to do uncertainty estimates, especially on

world ocean averages, because we have such poor historical sampling.

• Lots of decadal variability. Trend estimates over a decade or so are not useful for projecting long term trends.

• How much decadal predictability? • Interest in ocean carbon uptake and acidification

and ecosystem impacts is high but what specifically can we deliver?

Some efforts last year

• Data System – metadata for temperature profiles, BUFFR for real-time oceanography, toward real-time for CTD profiles, ongoing QC conversations, improved system monitoring

• In-Situ Hardware – animal profiles, improved Argo life, O2 and hydrophones on Argo, sub-daily SST and SLP from surface drifters, more real-time tide gauges

• Outreach to non-physical variable communities.• Pressing science communities for indices/info

suggestions and analysis/forecast communities for OSEs and uncertainty estimates.

Selected Meetings w. OOPC Participation Since GCOS SC15

2007: • Oct 31GOOS outreach Lon• Nov 5-7 OSE/OSSE Paris• CoML 14-17Auckland, NZ• Nov 29-30Autumn COSC• Dec 3-6 JCOMM MAN VI Paris• Dec 5-7 GSOP Velocity review SIO

2008:• Jan 3 IOC on OceanObs/Info09 • Jan 9-11 POGO9 Bermuda • Jan 14-15 operational oceanography mtg at NCEP• Jan 28-Feb 1 3rd Reanalysis Wkshp Tokyo • March 10-12 XBT fallrate workshop AOML • March 13-14 GSOP-III Southampton UK • March 24-26 CWG Review Princeton NJ • March 31-4 Apr JSC 29 Bordeaux (Arcachon), France

2008 continued:• Mar 31-4Apr, Sensors Warnemunde, Ger• April 7 pre-GSSC GOOS wkshp Paris • April 8-10 GSSC Paris• April 10-11 PICO Paris• April 8-12 El Nino Definition mtg. UHawaii• April 21-25 AOPC Geneva • May 5-9 WCRP Modeling Summit ECMWF • May 6-9 CLIMAR-III Gydnia Poland• May 19-23 Gijon ICES/PICES/IOC • Jun 2-4 IGST DC • June 9-13 OOPC 13 Buenos Aires • June30-4July GCOS Geneva • July 7-8 OSMC PMEL• July 7-11 Boston, IGARSS• July 22-24 MAST Arlington VA • Aug 26-28 PMEL Lab Review• Sept 3-5 DC OCO Annual Review • Sept 9-10 Darmstadt Eumetsat MetSat conf • Sept 29-Oct3 WOAP, Boulder • Oct 6-7 OceanSynth-III Jamstec/Tokyo • Oct 13-16 DBCP Cape Town

Status, In-situ

• 10-yr phased implementation plan is ~60% complete

• Argo floats and surface drifters reached initial goal (1250 and 3000, respectively) in previous years.

• For the first time the ice-free upper ocean is being fairly systematically observed; T,S

• Situation, compared with historical record is impressive, but little progress last year.

• VOS, XBT, tide gauge issues• Growing financial pressures just to sustain

5x5 regions meeting ‘climate SST bias’ data requirement

Argo Density – 3 profiles/month per 3x3 region

87%

Total in situ networks February 200860%

62%

81%

43%79%48%24%

Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets

100%

100%

MilestonesDrifters 2005

Argo 2007

12501250

8686

3939

22402240

1515

468468

44

7979

7979

2626

923923

55

458458

6767

7979

2626

458458

6767

7777

2424

370370

5656

975975

8383

2727

15721572

99

458458

6969

12581258

9797

4141

30553055

4646

2121

2020

489489

66

102102

12501250

131131

5151

30003000

8787

3737

1515

170170

7373

882882

12501250

103103

4141

30003000

4747

2222

88

112112

12941294

9191

4141

25572557

2121

1717

492492

55

8585

7777

2323

370370

5151

20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 2006200620052005 20072007 20082008 GoalGoal

Initial Ocean Observing System Milestones including international contributionsInitial Ocean Observing System Milestones including international contributions

Tide GaugesTide GaugesReal-time StationsReal-time StationsInitial GCOS SubsetInitial GCOS Subset

Surface Drifting BuoysSurface Drifting Buoys

Tropical Moored BuoysTropical Moored Buoys

Ships of OpportunityShips of Opportunity

Argo FloatsArgo Floats

Reference StationsReference Stations

Arctic SystemArctic System

Analysis Products Analysis Products

Ocean Carbon NetworkOcean Carbon Network

Dedicated Ship TimeDedicated Ship Time

High resolution and frequentlyHigh resolution and frequentlyrepeated lines occupiedrepeated lines occupied

Number of floatsNumber of floats

Number of mooringsNumber of moorings

Number of buoysNumber of buoys

Days at sea Days at sea (NOAA contribution)(NOAA contribution)

Essential Climate VariablesEssential Climate VariablesReported Reported (NOAA contribution)(NOAA contribution)

Repeat Sections Committed,Repeat Sections Committed,One inventory per 10 yearsOne inventory per 10 years

Number of observatories, flux,Number of observatories, flux,and ocean transport stationsand ocean transport stations

Ice buoys, drifting andIce buoys, drifting andMoored stationsMoored stations

807807 671671 779779 787787

2020 3131 544544

1515 2929 3535 3737 4141

11

00 11 11 11

55554848 5959100100

60605656Total System Total System 3030 3434 4040 4545

20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 2006200620052005 20072007 20082008 GoalGoal

System % CompleteSystem % CompleteIndexIndex

33

4242 4343

340340

1818242421212020202019191919

00 00

Progress Toward Global Coverage Progress Toward Global Coverage (representative milestones)(representative milestones)

4444 4848 5353 6060 6666 77773030 3434 4040Initial TargetsInitial Targets

Status, Satellite• CEOS virtual constellations proposed, but

implementation not assured.

• European progress for multiple missions of some sensors, but JASON3 is a test.

• Need for Chinese and Indian participation to complete some constellations

• Most ocean sensor missions still in research agencies

• Future generally not clear

Ocean Satellite Status Summary

NOTE: Needs to have Surface Vector Winds added.

Would like to have updated version of this summary:

State of the Ocean

• Overview at: http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/state_of_the_ocean/all/

• Time series of the selected indices is available by clicking out of that table.

• Time series are updated weekly if data are available, monthly otherwise

• External feedback is that more interpretation is desired…how to provide this service?

Nino 3.4 SSTA: 1/82-10/08

NINO 3.4 SSTA: 10/06-10/08

Intense discussion Summer ’08 about sea ice observation issues.

NOTE: Area minimum was slightly less than in 2007; timing difference accounts for substantially smaller monthly area anomaly.

Sea Level Issues

• Generally not appreciated how spatially variable are local relative sea level trends

• Most of the world’s coast is not being measured. Need to know local trends for society.

• Over next decades local conditions may dominate Climate Change…but where and for how long? Where not?

• Seems like an opportunity via the adaptation agenda?

Global Sea Level Topex-Poseidon + Jason + tide gauges

From:

Univ of Colorado

S.Nerem et al

Church et al., 2004, 2006

Holgate and Woodworth, 2004

2020thth century sea level rise century sea level rise

Satellite altimetry

1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr

Estimated Vertical Land Movement, Washington State

Complex Space Structure.

Local effect can overwhelm global sea level rise.

Sea Level, Marshall Is.

N.Trop.Pac

Altimeter-era larger trends are similar in amplitude to those over some earlier periods

Lots of interannual and decadal variability

Toward OceanObs2009see: www.oceanobs2009.net

D.E.HarrisonNOAA/PMEL, OOPC

Detlef StammerU. Kiel, GSOP

GCOS SC-XVI

Conference Goals

• Celebrate progress implementing the vision from OceanObs1999, realizing benefits from it and highlighting potential if continued

• Develop community consensus for sustaining and developing the system for its second decade of societal benefits

Conference Vision

Strengthen and enhance the international framework,

for sustained world ocean observing and information systems

supporting the needs of society

about ocean weather, climate, ecosystems, carbon and biogeochemistry

Conference Structure

• Plenary papers on plans for coming decade to be agreed by sub-communities in advance and circulated widely for feedback

• Plenary talks will summarize sub-community developed White Papers

• White Paper submission screen• Additional Contributions • WP and ACs will be presented in 2-hour

afternoon poster sessions.• Daily panel discussions

Meeting Outcomes

• Broader-marine-community agreement on aspirations for the coming decade.

• Input to v.2 of GCOS Implementation Plan, for the sustained open ocean observing system. ?Timing?

• New cross-community connections• Conference publication of Plenary Papers

and White Papers• Electronic publication of Additional

Contributions

Daily Agenda

• Overview and Celebration of Progress

• Scientific Results from global Observations

• Societal Benefits and Opportunities

• Frontiers of Global Ocean Observations

• The Way Forward

Day 5 –”Way Forward”

• The program committee lacks agreement about how best to handle this final day.

• It’s easy to talk about the unified vision for a new decade, but we have few mechanisms for accomplishing the vision. The system appears most likely to depend once again on individual PIs, with little global coordination among nations or funding sources.

• The nuts and bolts community would like to present ocean basin plans, but this would turn away from the services perspective we seek to promote

• The Euro “My Ocean” approach will already have gotten some publicity

Tasks Ahead

• Each of the observing, analysis/forecast and data system sub-communities to:

Develop plan for their aspirations for the coming decade

Prepare White Papers and posters for OceanObs09

Participate in preparation of Plenary Papers and in development of consensus for coming decade.

Comments/Suggestions Sought!

• Budget restricted… No budget for Organizing/Program committee meetings or for participant travel.

• Registration fee likely to have to be Euro300.

• ?Developing world participation?

THANK YOU

Observing System Status Details

• The following slides are from Mike Johnson’s overview at the NOAA Office of Climate Observations Annual Review presentation, Sept 2008.

Surface Drifting BuoysSurface Drifting Buoys1250 sustained array achieved1250 sustained array achieved

281 Moored Buoys reporting281 Moored Buoys reporting

Tropical Moored Buoys

• TAO/TRITON sustained• PIRATA Extensions implemented• RAMA getting started

Argo Profiling Float ArrayArgo Profiling Float Array3000 floats achieved3000 floats achieved

GCOS Climate Reference Network of Tide Gauge Stations

Upper Ocean Thermal Line Sampling

Well sampled lines: 18 Over sampled lines: 1 50% sampled lines: 3 Under sampled lines: 14 Lines not yet occupied: 10

41 of 51 UOT XBT lines now occupied.

Volunteer Observing Ships

910 VOS reporting at least 25 weatherobservations per month.

215 VOSClim ships registered

Deploying and maintaining 89 Ocean Reference Stations

(43 now in service)

NOAA ContributionsFuture NSF OOI

38% complete

Measuring Ocean Carbon Sources and Sinks

1. Inventory 10-year survey2. Ships of opportunity3. Moored buoy time series

IPY -- legacy (sustained)IPY -- legacy (sustained)Arctic Observing NetworkArctic Observing Network

Sustained Arctic Observing Network

International Design to be completed in 2008

Animal Oceanographers?