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Republic of Serbia
Economic and Structural Reform Challenges and Achievements
Mladjan Dinkic, Minister of Finance
November, 2005
www.mfin.sr.gov.yu
GDP per Capita (current USD) and Real Growth Rates
2,569
3,200
829
2,938
1,375
1,933
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 est.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10GDP per capita
GDP growth rates (right scale)
Estimated growth of GDP for the first half of 2005 is 6,1%
Budget Balance, in % of GDP
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005
Overal Balance
Primary Balance
Monthly Inflation Rate,February 1994 – September 2005
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
94
,02
94
,07
94
,12
95
.05
95
.10
96
.03
96
.08
97
.01
97
.06
97
.11
98
.04
98
.09
99
.02
99
.07
99
.12
00
.05
00
.10
01
.03
01
.08
02
.01
02
.06
02
.11
03
.04
03
.09
04
.02
04
.07
04
.12
05
.05
Official Reserves, in USD mil.,January 1994 – September 2005
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
94,0
1
94,0
5
94,0
9
95.0
1
95.0
5
95.0
9
96.0
1
96.0
5
96.0
9
97.0
1
97.0
5
97.0
9
98.0
1
98.0
5
98.0
9
99.0
1
99.0
5
99.0
9
00.0
1
00.0
5
00.0
9
01.0
1
01.0
5
01.0
9
02.0
1
02.0
5
02.0
9
03.0
1
03.0
5
03.0
9
04.0
1
04.0
5
04.0
9
05.0
1
05.0
5
05.0
9
Official Reserves relative to Real Money Supply (M1) February 1994 – September 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
94.0
2
94.0
6
94.1
0
95.0
2
95.0
6
95.1
0
96.0
2
96.0
6
96.1
0
97.0
2
97.0
6
97.1
0
98.0
2
98.0
6
98.1
0
99.0
2
99.0
6
99.1
0
00.0
2
00.0
6
00.1
0
01.0
2
01.0
6
01.1
0
02.0
2
02.0
6
02.1
0
03.0
2
03.0
6
03.1
0
04.0
2
04.0
6
04.1
0
05.0
2
05.0
6
Official and Gross Reserves relative to Monthly Imports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
00.0
1
00.0
3
00.0
5
00.0
7
00.0
9
00.1
1
01.0
1
01.0
3
01.0
5
01.0
7
01.0
9
01.1
1
02.0
1
02.0
3
02.0
5
02.0
7
02.0
9
02.1
1
03.0
1
03.0
3
03.0
5
03.0
7
03.0
9
03.1
1
04.0
1
04.0
3
04.0
5
04.0
7
04.0
9
04.1
1
05.0
1
05.0
3
05.0
5
05.0
7
Official Reserves
Gross Reserves (NBS + banks)
Citizens’ New Savings (in EUR billion)
0,02
0,4 0,40,7 0,8 0,7
0,91,1
1,41,7
2,0
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
05.10. Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 15.10.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Credit Portfolio of Banking Sector (in EUR billion)
1.31.9
2.2 2.12.5
3.2
4.34.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 30.09.
2002 2003 2004 2005
Serbia: Exports in USD mill. January 2002- August 2005
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
02.0
1
02.0
202.0
3
02.0
4
02.0
502.0
6
02.0
7
02.0
802.0
9
02.1
0
02.1
1
02.1
203.0
1
03.0
2
03.0
303.0
4
03.0
5
03.0
6
03.0
703.0
8
03.0
9
03.1
003.1
1
03.1
2
04.0
104.0
2
04.0
3
04.0
4
04.0
504.0
6
04.0
7
04.0
804.0
9
04.1
0
04.1
1
04.1
205.0
1
05.0
2
05.0
305.0
4
05.0
5
05.0
605.0
7
05.0
8
Foreign Trade Deficit and Current Account Deficit (millions of USD and % of GDP)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 est.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Trade Deficit (millions)Current Account DeficitC/A Deficit in % of GDP
Regulatory Activity – Laws Adopted by the Parliament
Total Number
of Laws
Financial Laws
included in Total
Adopted in 2002 46 22
Adopted in 2003 47 17
Adopted in 2004 88 43
Adopted in 2005 83 40
In Procedure 41 10
20 guaranties and counter-guaranties issuedLaws on restructuring old debts – London Club, Loan for Rehabilitation, government debt to NBS – adopted
Privatization Results 2002 - September 2005
Tenders Auctions Share Fund Total
Enterprises offered: 90 1,508 639 2,237
Enterprises Sold: 50 1,191 390 1,631
Success Rate: 56% 79% 61% 73%
Employees in Sold Enterprises:
45,736 112,224 69,060 227,020
Selling Price
(in 000 EUR):874,870 534,546 279,293 1,688,708
Total Investments (in 000 EUR):
750,228 141,809 5,902 897,939
Social Program
(in 000 EUR):272,441 - - 272,441
Foreign Direct Investments (USD mil.)
50
475
2,000
1,360
165
966
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 est.
Public Debt: Total and Foreign (% of GDP)
118
90
55
44
3228
169
132
90
72
5549
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Est
Foreign
Public (total)
169,3
89,6
49,5
117,6
90,0
55,2
43,7
32,328,2
132,1
71,9
55,3
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
180,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 estimatefor end of year
Public (total)
Foreign
Public debt• Significantly lowered external debt
– Paris Club– London Club– Foreign debt/GDP dropped to 55% in 2004, down from 169% in 2000
• S&P credit rating (B+/Stable/B) in November 2004, upgrade (BB-/Stable/B) in July 2005
• Fitch credit rating (BB-/Stable/B) in May 2005
• Total foreign debt US$6.6bln, of which:• Paris Club US$ 2.59bln• London Club US$1.08bln • IBRD US$2.20bln
• Total domestic debt US$4.7bln• FX Bonds US$4.27bln
FFC Bonds yields
Yields on FFC Bonds
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.00
Av
era
ge
We
igh
ted
Yie
ld
J uly 2003 J uly 2004 J uly 2005
Note: Secondary market rates (in Euro) based on BSE closing price
T-bill discount rates
Average Weighted Discount Rate on 3-month and 6-month T-bills - Summary
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
Jan-
03Fe
b-03
Mar
-03
Apr
-03
May
-03
Jun-
03Ju
l-03
Aug
-03
Sep
-03
Oct
-03
Nov
-03
Dec
-03
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep
-04
Oct
-04
Nov
-04
Dec
-04
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar
-05
Apr
-05
May
-05
Jun-
05Ju
l-05
Aug
-05