REPUBLIC OF UGANDA

Population SecretariatMinistry of Finance, Planning and

Economic Development

1

2

UgandaUganda:: Population Factors & Population Factors & National DevelopmentNational Development

October 2009J. Owen-Rae / USAID

Outline

I. The Ugandan Development VisionII. Population SituationIII.Relationship between Population

and Economic DevelopmentIV.Population and Social and

Economic Development in UgandaV. Policy Response

3 3

Outline

I. The Ugandan Development VisionII. Population SituationIII.Relationship between Population

and Economic DevelopmentIV.Population and Social and

Economic Development in Uganda V. Policy Response

4

Despite notable progress, Uganda remains among the poorest countries in the world . . .

Uganda's Development Vision

6

A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous

country within 30 years

7

What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Uganda to achieve its national vision in coming decades?

Outline

I. The Ugandan VisionII. Population SituationIII.Relationship between Population

and Economic DevelopmentIV.Population and Social and

Economic Development in UgandaV. Policy Response

8

Population growth

6.59.5

12.6

16.7

24.2

31.2

5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1948 1959 1969 1980 1991 2002 2009

Mil

lio

ns

of

peo

ple

9

Fertility rate

10

Uganda’s fertility rate is 6.7 children per woman

Source: Uganda Demographic and Health Survey 2006

© 2008 Dave Blume

Comparative fertility rates

6.76.2 6.1 6.0 5.7

4.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Uganda(2006)

Zambia(2007)

Rwanda(2005)

Malawi(2004)

Tanzania(2004)

Kenya(2007)

11

12

Uganda has a very young population . . .

About half the population is under the age of 15-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Male Female

80 +75-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

01520 10 5

Ag

e in

yea

rs

15 2010525 25Percent of the population

Fertility rate assumptions . . .

6.36.7 6.0

4.4

2.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Nu

mb

er o

f b

irth

s p

er w

om

an

High fertility Declining fertility

13

Uganda’s population will grow rapidly with continued high fertility . . .

50.9

29.0

88.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

High fertility

14

However, the population will grow more slowly if fertility declines in coming decades . . .

88.8

31.1

50.9 62.4

46.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

High fertility Declining fertility

15

Outline

I. The Ugandan Development VisionII. Population SituationIII.Relationship between Population

and Economic DevelopmentIV.Population and Social and

Economic Development in Uganda V. Policy Response

16

17

Two Major Messages . . .

1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the pace of aggregate economic growth

2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families

Source: Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World and Population Dynamics and Economic Development: Filling the Research Gaps.

Photo credit: K. Burns / USAID.

18

Africa looks to learn from the East Asian countries the best ways of achieving fast economic growth.

The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development

19

Thailand emerged as a middle-incomecountry in a single generation . . .

317384

516602

796

956

1,462

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

GD

P P

er

Ca

pit

a

(co

ns

tan

t 2

00

0 U

S$

)

Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, 2008. 20

Thai fertility moved from high to low levels . . .

6.4 6.15.4

4.4

3.32.6

2.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Bir

ths

per

wo

man

Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, 2008. 21

22

Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic “miracle” . . . Greater emphasis on the quality of the

population rather than sheer numbers

More and better educational opportunities

More investment in modern agriculture

Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios

Uganda aspires to become a strong middle-income economy in Africa . . .

23

Outline

I. The Ugandan Development VisionII. Population SituationIII.Relationship between Population

and Economic DevelopmentIV.Population and Social and

Economic Development in UgandaV. Policy Response

24

© 2007 David Sasaki

Urbanisation

Population affects social and economic development in Uganda

Education

K. Burns / USAID

Agriculture

© 2005 Laura Darby

Economy© 2008 Maisha Elonai© 2008 Maisha Elonai

Environment

© 2004 Louris Yamaguchi© 2004 Louris Yamaguchi

Health

© 2006 AMREF, Courtesy of Photoshare

Uganda’s Population Growth

29.0

88.8

62.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

High fertility Declining fertility

26

Education Education

Number of primary students,

2007-2037

18.4

7.5

10.2

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Pri

mar

y st

ud

ents

(m

illi

on

s)

High fertility Declining fertility

28

Number of primary teachers required, 2007-2037

459.8

152.0

253.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Pri

ma

ry t

ea

ch

ers

(th

ou

sa

nd

s) High fertility Declining fertility

29

Annual education expenditures, 2007-2037

57.2

37.2

23.531.632.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

US

H (

bill

ion

s)

High fertility

Declining fertility

30

23.5

37.2

57.2

32.7 31.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

US

H (

bil

lio

ns)

Annual education expenditures, 2007-2037

High fertility

Declining fertility

31

Cumulative savings Ush230 billion

Health Health

32© 2008© 2008

Number of nurses required,

2007-2037

7,700

21,400

88,800

19,500

62,400

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Nu

mb

er o

f n

urs

es

High fertility Declining fertility

33

Number of health centres required, 2007-2037

5,340

9,320

3,045

6,550

4,880

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Nu

mb

er o

f H

ealt

h C

entr

es

High fertility Declining fertility

34

Annual health expenditures, 2007-2037

0.24

1.42

2.49

1.30

1.75

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

US

D (

bil

lio

ns)

High fertility

Declining fertility

35

Annual health expenditures, 2007-2037

36

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

US

$ (b

illi

on

s)

High fertility

Declining fertility

Cumulative savings

$6.4 billion

.24

1.42

2.49

1.30

1.75

Birth spacing improves child health

120

5654

76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

<2 years 24-36 months 36-48 months 48 months ormore

Months since last birth

Infa

nt

dea

ths

per

100

0 li

ve b

irth

s

Source:  UDHS, 2006 37

Agriculture & Environment

© 2006 Rob & Ale Youngrobv© 2006 Rob & Ale Youngrobv

Plan for the Modernisation of Agriculture

K. Burns / USAID

Rapid population growth works against modernisation . . .

40

In many parts of the country, rapid population growth in the rural areas has led todeforestationsoil erosionland degradationsmallholding fragmentation

http://www.flickr.com/photos/plant-trees/3595014598/sizes/m/

Source: Trees For The Future  

New rural households, 2007–2037

41 41

2,732,187

1,704,557

3,479,342

5,017,649

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

High fertility Declining fertility

New

ru

ral h

ou

seh

old

s

2007-2022 2023-2037

8,496,990

4,436,743

Minimum food requirements*, 2007-2037

37.3

21.3

65.1

45.7

34.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Fo

od

req

uir

emen

t (i

n m

illi

on

to

nn

es)

High fertility Declining fertility

*Assumes production per capita stays at 2007 levels.Source: 2009 Statistical Abstract. 42

Environmental degradation has reached alarming proportions in parts of Uganda

43 43

The country’s forests are under tremendous pressure, with wood harvesting for fuel and timber and the clearance of agriculture and human settlement being some of the primary causes. USAIDUSAID

Wood fuel consumption, 2007-2037

27.5

18.9

39.5

27.825.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Wo

od

fu

el c

on

sum

pti

on

(in

mil

lio

n t

on

nes

)

High fertility Declining fertility

Source:PEAP (2004/5-2007/8), p. 77. 44

EconomyEconomy

K. Burns / USAIDK. Burns / USAID© 2005 Leila Darabi, Courtesy of Photoshare © 2005 Leila Darabi, Courtesy of Photoshare

© 2006 Walter Wafula/ Daily Monitor, Courtesy of Photoshare© 2006 Walter Wafula/ Daily Monitor, Courtesy of Photoshare

K. Burns / USAIDK. Burns / USAID

K. Burns / USAIDK. Burns / USAID K. Burns / USAIDK. Burns / USAID

GDP growth rate, 2001-2008

8.8

7.16.2 5.8

10.0

7.0

8.2 8.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

GD

P g

row

th r

ate

46 46Source: 2009 Statistical Abstract

47 47

953

1,505

591

1,043

2,142

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Co

ns

tan

t Y

ea

r 2

00

2 U

SH

(0

00

s)

High fertility Declining fertility

GDP per capita(Assumes 7% annual economic growth rate)

Middle-income status

48 48

591

1,157

843

1,647

923

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Co

nst

ant

Yea

r 20

02 U

SH

(00

0s) High fertility Declining fertility

GDP per capita(Assumes 6% annual economic growth rate)

Middle-income status

49 49

1,365

3,264

591

1,494

4,645

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Co

nst

ant

Yea

r 20

02 U

SH

(00

0s) High fertility Declining fertility

GDP per capita(Assumes 10% annual economic growth rate)

Middle-income status

Annual New Job Requirements,2007-2037

862

476

1,521

812854

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

New

Jo

bs

(th

ou

san

ds)

High

Low

50 50

Urbanisation Urbanisation

51

Urban population, 2007-2037

21.9

3.7

8.5

15.4

7.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Urb

an p

op

ula

tio

n (

mil

lio

ns)

High

Low

52 52

53

Rapid growth puts increasing pressure on urban infrastructure.

Credit: © 2005 Richard Niyonzima, Courtesy of Photoshare Caption: A river of refuse and waste passes through a congested slum in Namuwongo, Kampala City, Uganda. Ninety percent of the Kampala population lives in slums like this one, risking contracting diseases like dysentery and cholera.

Required new urban housing units, 2007-2037

54 54

1,141,369 966,112

3,183,355

1,809,798

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

High fertility Declining fertility

Ho

us

ing

un

its

2007-2022 2022-2037

4,324,724

2,775,910

Contraceptive Use

55 55

Modern contraceptive prevalence rate is 17.9 percent of married women of reproductive age.

Credit: © 2006 Alfredo L. Fort, Courtesy of Photoshare Caption: Clients wait for services in a family planning/maternal health clinic in Mukono, Uganda

Source:  UDHS, 2006

Comparative modern contraceptive prevalence rate

31.5

28.226.5

20.017.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Kenya Malawi Zambia Tanzania Uganda

56 56

Zimbabwe (2005/06) – 58.4Kenya (2003) – 31.5%Malawi (2004) – 28.2%Zambia (2007) – 26.5%Tanzania (2004/05)) – 20.0%Uganda (2006) – 17.9%

A very large unmet need for family planning already exists...

40.6% of married women want to space or limit births but are not using contraceptives

57

Unmet need for family planning

40.6

27.6 26.524.5

16.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Uganda Malawi Zambia Kenya Tanzania

Pe

rce

nt

of

wo

me

n in

un

ion

of

rep

rod

uc

tiv

e a

ge

58 58

59

To satisfy unmet need, a realistic strategy is to ensure that all Ugandan couples who want to space or limit their births have access to quality reproductive health services, including a full range of RH commodities

consistently available

at affordable prices.© Dylan Walters© Dylan Walters

If Uganda moves toward satisfying current unmet need by 2025, it will be on track to achieve a fertility transition in a generation . . .

6.7

4.4

2.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Nu

mb

er o

f b

irth

s p

er w

om

an

Declining fertility

60

What we need is….

Sustained commitment and support from leaders at national and district levels

Improved quality and access to affordable services

Increased private sector/NGO participation Contraceptive security Improved district management Expanded IEC Sustained donor support

61