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Res-IRF, modeling the savings potential in the French residential sector
Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet,
Céline Guivarch and Philippe Quirion
CIRED (www.centre-cired.fr)
Outline
Res-IRF: Residential module of Imaclim-R France
1. Model description
2. Dynamics in the reference scenario
3. Policy simulations
2
Model description
Res-IRF: technological features
• Energy consumption covered – Space heating (2/3 of French household demand)
– Electricity, natural gas & fuel oil (+ wood in new version)
• Energy efficiency improvements (including fuel switch) – New constructions (standard/low energy/passive)
– Retrofitting of existing dwellings
G F E D C B A
G
F
E
D
C
B
A 4
Res-IRF: microeconomic features
,
,
,
i f
i f
i h
h i
LCCPR
LCC
, , ,i f i f f i fLCC CINV CENER IC
Barriers to energy efficiency (non-exhaustive list)
Tentative representation in Res-IRF (parameterized according to expert elicitation)
Market barriers
Uncertainty Myopic expectation CENER
Hidden costs Fixed intangible costs a . IC
Heterogeneity Heterogeneity parameter ν
Market failures
Split incentives Heterogeneous discount rates (7%...50%) CENER
Information externalities Decreasing intangible costs (1-a) IC
Innovation externalities Learning-by-doing functions CINV
5
LE/A
B
C
D
E F G
Efficiency, ‘Sufficiency’ and the rebound effect
Data
: ED
F R
&D
(se
e C
ayre
et a
l., 20
11
, EC
EE
E P
roce
ed
ing
s)
Energy efficiency Energy price
Unrestrictive behavior
Restrictive behavior
Suff
icie
ncy
6
Dynamics in the reference scenario
Endogenous retrofitting dynamics
65% 90%
Adoption spillovers prevail (self-reinforcing) ‘Natural’ exhaustion prevails
8
Potential for energy conservation in existing dwellings
Reference savings: -37%
« Sufficiency » gap: -10%
« Private efficiency » gap: -4%
« Social efficiency » gap: -8%
NB: subject to slightly increasing energy price (~0.5% p.a.) 9
Policy simulations
Retrofitting obligation for each occupancy change • Dwellings rated below class C must upgrade to minimum class C • Incremental implementation, from class G in 2016…to class D in 2028
Income tax credits 2009-2020
• Subsidy of 30% of investment cost
• Capped at €8,000 per dwelling
Policy simulation
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Zero rate loans 2009-2020
• Subsidy equal to the interests of a 10-year loan at 4%
• Base capped at €30,000 per dwelling
Carbon tax • €32/tCO2 in 2010 • Increasing by 5.8% pa until 2030, 4% afterwards
11
Ineffectiveness of the policy packages assessed
National Target -38%
12
€200/tCO2
in 2010
Policy impacts on existing dwellings in 2050
13
Why in the end, tax outperforms
14
Rebound
Sufficiency
Conclusions
• Policy ranking – Subsidies & regulations increase efficiency, thus adoption
externalities (pro) and the rebound effect (con)
– Tax: low impact on efficiency, but encourages sufficiency
– both necessary
– Despite unrepresented measures (information policies) and technologies (fuel-wood, district heating), French targets hard to meet
• New developments and perspectives – Fuel-wood
– Uncertainty analysis
– Econometric estimation
15
Thanks for your attention
contact: [email protected]
Giraudet, L.-G., C. Guivarch, P. Quirion, 2011: • Comparing and combining energy saving policies. Will proposed
residential sector policies meet French official targets? Energy Journal, 32(SI1): 213-242
• Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modelling, Energy Economics, doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.010
16