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ResCap Mongolia 101 v2

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ResCap ResJanuary 24 2011

Resource Investment Capital

ResCap CapMongolia 101Initiating country coverage on one of the last remaining mining frontiers

ResCapJanuary 24 2011

Resource Investment Capital

ResCap Mongolia 101 One of the Last Remaining Mining FrontiersMongolia - One of the Key Global Economic and Mining Stories of 2011 Nestled between two political giants - China and Russia, Mongolia is a vastly undeveloped resource rich country on the brink of an economic transformation. Thanks to positive recent political and economic developments, Mongolia is set for spectacular growth which is becoming noticed globally. And backed by its resource rich landscape of world class deposits, Mongolia has been coined the Saudi Arabia of Coal with strong parallels to previous natural resource booms around the world. The Mongol Rally Has Literally Just Begun A rally to attract foreign investment, re-develop the stock exchange, re-urbanize much of the population into sustainable housing and reignite a process to unlock much of the countrys wealth in state owned mineral assets, has brought many foreigners rallying into Ulaanbaatar. The potential for discovery of more world class assets such as Oyu Tolgoi has unlocked a wave of financiers and geologists flooding into Mongolia. But quite simply the fascination of the unknown in a country not very well understood but linked with enormous potential has naturally played into human nature and curiosity root to many visitors arriving in Ulaanbaatar, financiers and tourists alike. Patriotism and History Underpinning Development Modern humans first arrived in Mongolia over 40,000 years ago and battled through waves of liberation, bloodless democratic revolution and one of the harshest climates on earth, now prospering through a young but developing freemarket economy. Mongolia is a nation proud to have partners but also very proud to remain unique and independent and central to success in Mongolia is prospering through strong, local partnerships. ResCap Mongolia 101 Country Guide 2011 will be a fascinating year and a potential turning point for Mongolia. As investors continue to ask the questions of how, what, where and when in Mongolia, ResCap has developed a user guide to the country. This ResCap Mongolia 101 is an account of Mongolia in a detailed handbook as part of our initiation of coverage on one of the last remaining mining frontiers.

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Abstract

AbstractMongolia's national identity has been dominated by the talismanic figure of Chinggis Khan. This legendary warrior-nomad conquered vast tracts of Central Asia in the 13th century to found the Mongol Empire, which remains the largest contiguous empire to have existed in the history of the world. He remains the subject of great national pride, and understanding the history, the culture, the laws, politics and the economy can not only help investors understand the nature of these proud, nomadic people and Mongolian society, but also help them better judge where to put capital to work in this large, resource-rich country.

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Executive Summary

11.1

Executive SummaryHistory

Chinggis Khan founded the Mongol Empire in 1206. By the end of the XVII century, most of Mongolia had fallen under the rule of the Qing Dynasty. With the demise of the Qing Dynasty in 1911, Mongolia declared independence, but had to struggle until 1921 to firmly establish de facto independence from China. Mongolia came under strong Soviet influence in 1921. The Mongolian People's Republic was declared in 1924. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mongolia saw its own peaceful Democratic Revolution in early 1990.

1.2

Government Mongolia follows a parliamentary type of governance. The highest executive power is the Prime Minister. The President of Mongolia has limited powers but acts as the Head of State and Commander-in-Chief of Mongolias army. The biggest political parties are the Mongolian People's Party (MPP), formerly the Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP), and the Democratic Party (DP). Since the Democratic Revolution, there has been continuous replacement of governments. The current Prime Minister is Sukhbaataryn Batbold and the current President is Tsakhiagyn Elbegdorj. In 2008 a coalition government was formed between the MPP and DP, which facilitated the greatest advancements in the economy. The State Great Khural or the Parliament is the legislative authority of Mongolia and consists of a single chamber with 76 seats, led by the house Speaker.

1.3

Foreign Relations In developing its relations with other countries, Mongolia is guided by universally recognized principles and norms of international law as defined in the UN charter.

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Executive SummaryMongolia has bilateral relations with 140 and diplomatic relations with 149 countries. Mongolia almost certainly has the strongest relationship with Russia. Russia helped Mongolia to ward off the Chinese invasion. In December 2010, Mongolia and Russia signed an agreement to develop the Dornod uranium deposit. Russia holds 190 reports on Mongolias 6 uranium fields, while Mongolia only has access to 34. As the Soviet Union had been Mongolias main ally and the most influential neighbouring power up until 1990, foreign relations between the PRC and Mongolia used to be predominantly determined by the PRC and USSR relations. With adoption of democracy and transition to a market economy, Mongolias relationships with China began to improve. Currently the PRC is the largest trading partner of Mongolia. Mongolia will soon have the capacity to supply 25-40 mtpa of coal to the PRC. The Peoples Republic of Mongolia established diplomatic relations with Japan in February 1972. The ties were strengthened after the Democratic Revolution in Mongolia. Japan has historically been the largest aid benefactor to Mongolia, until the US had approved a Millennium Challenge Compact aid worth $285 million in October 2007. 96% of Japans rare-earth metals are imported from China and the latter restricted their export quotas by 72% and 35% in H2 2010 and Q1 2011 respectively. Japanese geologists and scientists launched exploration of rareearth elements in Mongolia. The Peoples Republic of Mongolia established diplomatic relations with North Korea in October 1948. Mongolia is one of the few countries in the world that maintain warm relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Mongolia endeavours to maintain close relationships with European countries. In 1991, Mongolia signed an economic cooperation agreement with the UK, and investment promotion and protection agreements with France and Germany. Canada and Mongolia established bilateral ties in November 1973. Canadian FDI thus far has been mainly flowing to the mineral resource sector of Mongolia. Negotiations are ongoing on the signing of a foreign investment promotion and protection agreement (FIPA). The United States agency for International Development (USAID) has continuously been one of the key aid donors to Mongolia. In October 2007, the Mongolian government signed a Compact agreement with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for the receipt of a grant worth $285 million.

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Executive Summary1.4 Geography and Climate Mongolia is ranked 19 in the world by country size after Iran. It covers 1.56 million square km. The climate is generally dry and the temperature varies significantly across the year, making the winters extremely cold and summers very warm.th

1.5

Administrative Regions Mongolia is divided into 21 aimags. Each aimag is subdivided into a number of soums.

1.6

Economy Economic activity in Mongolia has historically been focused on agriculture and herding, but recent discoveries of mineral deposits have attracted large levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the mining sector. The global economic downturn in late 2008/early 2009 had a harsh impact on Mongolia. Mongolia is about to experience a period of remarkable growth. The IMF forecasts the real GDP growth to be over 25% in three years time driven by advancements in the mining sector. In 2010, the real GDP growth was 6.1%, nominal growth was 25.3% (GDP reaching $6.6 billion), general government budget showed a surplus of $611 million and the external trade deficit amounted to $378.7 million (both exports and imports were up around 53%) Inflation smoothed down to 13% in 2010 from the soaring 36% in August 2008. FDI into the country has been growing 30% annually and is expected to reach $11 billion in the next four years. In 2010, the total industrial output increased 10% to approximately $1.5 billion (at 2005 constant prices) compared to the previous year In December 2010, the MNT/USD rate gained in value 15% since January 2010, when it was 1,446, which made it the second best-performing currency against the dollar in 2010. By the end of December 2010 Mongolias official international reserves has exceeded $2.0 billion, growing 82.6% yoy.

1.7

Banking Sector The Mongolian financial sector consists of 14 commercial banks, 188 NBFIs and 207 S&C (saving and credit) Cooperatives.

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Executive SummaryThe minimum capital requirement for commercial banks ordered by the Bank of Mongolia is MNT 8.0 billion ($6.4 million) In Q3 2010 non-performing loa

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